Influence of hosts on the ecology of arboviral transmission: potential mechanisms influencing dengue, Murray Valley encephalitis, and Ross River virus in Australia

Australian vertebrate hosts of Japanese encephalitis virus; a review of the evidence

Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) transmission in temperate Australia has underscored a critical need to characterise transmission pathways and identify probable hosts of infection within the country. This systematic review consolidates existing research on the vertebrate hosts of JEV that are known to exist in Australia. Specifically, we aim to identify probable species for JEV transmission, their potential role as either a spillover or maintenance host and identify critical knowledge gaps. Data were extracted from studies involving experimental infection, seroprevalence, and virus isolation and were available for 22 vertebrate species known to reside in Australia. A host competence score was calculated to assess the potential for a given species to infect JEV vectors and to quantity their possible role in JEV transmission. Based on the host competence score and ecology of each species, we find ardeid birds, feral pigs, and flying foxes have potential as maintenance hosts for JEV in the Australian context. We also note that brushtail possums and domestic pigs have potential as spillover hosts under certain outbreak conditions. However, evidence to confirm these roles in localized transmission or outbreaks is sparse, emphasizing the need for further targeted research. This review provides a foundation for future investigations into JEV transmission in Australia, advocating for enhanced surveillance and standardized research methodologies to better understand and mitigate the virus's impact.

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average β = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

La Crosse virus neuroinvasive disease: the kids are not alright

La Crosse virus (LACV) is the most common cause of neuroinvasive mosquito-borne disease in children within the United States. Despite more than 50 years of recognized endemicity in the United States, the true burden of LACV disease is grossly underappreciated, and there remain severe knowledge gaps that inhibit public health interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality. Long-standing deficiencies in disease surveillance, clinical diagnostics and therapeutics, actionable entomologic and environmental risk indices, case response capacity, public awareness, and availability of community support groups clearly frame LACV disease as neglected. Here we synthesize salient prior research and contextualize our findings as an assessment of current gaps and opportunities to develop a framework to prevent, detect, and respond to LACV disease. The persistent burdens of LACV disease clearly require renewed public health attention, policy, and action.

One Health Approach to Arbovirus Control in Africa: Interests, Challenges, and Difficulties

The "One Health" concept considers that human and animal health, and ecosystems are closely related and aims to make a link between ecology and human and veterinary medicine. Due to the explosion in population growth along with the geographic and climatic conditions (equatorial and/or tropical climate), Africa is becoming a major hotspot for various socio-health issues associated with infectious diseases, including arboviruses. The incontestable advantages of a One Health approach in Africa lie in the fight against pathogens, such as arboviruses, and in the preservation of environmental, animal, and human health to ensure that the increasing high needs of this population are met as well as their protection against potential epidemics. The One Health strategy gives us a glimpse of the difficulties and challenges that the African continent faces. The importance of this approach in Africa is to establish guidelines and strategies for effective solutions and changes in behavior and harmful activities. Overall, the establishment of high-quality global health policies in the framework of the global health standards program would provide healthy and sustainable human-animal-environmental interactions for the welfare of all.

Mosquito-Borne Viruses and Non-Human Vertebrates in Australia: A Review

Mosquito-borne viruses are well recognized as a global public health burden amongst humans, but the effects on non-human vertebrates is rarely reported. Australia, houses a number of endemic mosquito-borne viruses, such as Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, and Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In this review, we synthesize the current state of mosquito-borne viruses impacting non-human vertebrates in Australia, including diseases that could be introduced due to local mosquito distribution. Given the unique island biogeography of Australia and the endemism of vertebrate species (including macropods and monotremes), Australia is highly susceptible to foreign mosquito species becoming established, and mosquito-borne viruses becoming endemic alongside novel reservoirs. For each virus, we summarize the known geographic distribution, mosquito vectors, vertebrate hosts, clinical signs and treatments, and highlight the importance of including non-human vertebrates in the assessment of future disease outbreaks. The mosquito-borne viruses discussed can impact wildlife, livestock, and companion animals, causing significant changes to Australian ecology and economy. The complex nature of mosquito-borne disease, and challenges in assessing the impacts to non-human vertebrate species, makes this an important topic to periodically review.

Spatial and temporal patterns of Ross River virus in south east Queensland, Australia: identification of hot spots at the rural-urban interface

Background

Ross River virus (RRV) is responsible for the most common vector-borne disease of humans reported in Australia. The virus circulates in enzootic cycles between multiple species of mosquitoes, wildlife reservoir hosts and humans. Public health concern about RRV is increasing due to rising incidence rates in Australian urban centres, along with increased circulation in Pacific Island countries. Australia experienced its largest recorded outbreak of 9544 cases in 2015, with the majority reported from south east Queensland (SEQ). This study examined potential links between disease patterns and transmission pathways of RRV.

Methods

The spatial and temporal distribution of notified RRV cases, and associated epidemiological features in SEQ, were analysed for the period 2001–2016. This included fine-scale analysis of disease patterns across the suburbs of the capital city of Brisbane, and those of 8 adjacent Local Government Areas, and host spot analyses to identify locations with significantly high incidence.

Results

The mean annual incidence rate for the region was 41/100,000 with a consistent seasonal peak in cases between February and May. The highest RRV incidence was in adults aged from 30 to 64 years (mean incidence rate: 59/100,000), and females had higher incidence rates than males (mean incidence rates: 44/100,000 and 34/100,000, respectively). Spatial patterns of disease were heterogeneous between years, and there was a wide distribution of disease across both urban and rural areas of SEQ. Overall, the highest incidence rates were reported from predominantly rural suburbs to the north of Brisbane City, with significant hot spots located in peri-urban suburbs where residential, agricultural and conserved natural land use types intersect.

Conclusions

Although RRV is endemic across all of SEQ, transmission is most concentrated in areas where urban and peri-urban environments intersect. The drivers of RRV transmission across rural-urban landscapes should be prioritised for further investigation, including identification of specific vectors and hosts that mediate human spillover.

Species Traits and Hotspots Associated with Ross River Virus Infection in Nonhuman Vertebrates in South East Queensland

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus associated with high public health and economic burdens across Australia, but particularly in South East Queensland (SEQ). Despite this high burden, humans are considered incidental hosts. Transmission of RRV is maintained among mosquitoes and many nonhuman vertebrate reservoir hosts, although the relative contributions of each of these hosts are unclear. To clarify the importance of a range of vertebrates in RRV transmission in SEQ, a total of 595 serum samples from 31 species were examined for RRV exposure using a gold-standard plaque reduction neutralization test. Data were analyzed statistically using generalized linear models and a coefficient inference tree, and spatially. RRV exposure was highly variable between and within species groups. Critically, species group ("placental mammal," "marsupial," and "bird"), which has previously been used as a proxy for reservoir hosts, was a poor correlate for exposure. Instead, we found that generalized "diet" and greater "body mass" were most strongly correlated with seropositivity. We also identified significant differences in seropositivity between the two major possum species (ringtail possums and brushtail possums), which are ecologically and taxonomically different. Finally, we identified distinct hotspots and coldspots of seropositivity in nonhuman vertebrates, which correlated with human notification data. This is the largest diversity of species tested for RRV in a single study to date. The analysis methods within this study provide a framework for analyzing serological data in combination with species traits for other zoonotic disease, but more specifically for RRV highlight areas to target further public health research and surveillance effort.

Epidemiological models for predicting Ross River virus in Australia: A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common and widespread arbovirus in Australia. Epidemiological models of RRV increase understanding of RRV transmission and help provide early warning of outbreaks to reduce incidence. However, RRV predictive models have not been systematically reviewed, analysed, and compared. The hypothesis of this systematic review was that summarising the epidemiological models applied to predict RRV disease and analysing model performance could elucidate drivers of RRV incidence and transmission patterns. We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus for studies of RRV using population-based data, incorporating at least one epidemiological model and analysing the association between exposures and RRV disease. Forty-three articles, all of high or medium quality, were included. Twenty-two (51.2%) used generalised linear models and 11 (25.6%) used time-series models. Climate and weather data were used in 27 (62.8%) and mosquito abundance or related data were used in 14 (32.6%) articles as model covariates. A total of 140 models were included across the articles. Rainfall (69 models, 49.3%), temperature (66, 47.1%) and tide height (45, 32.1%) were the three most commonly used exposures. Ten (23.3%) studies published data related to model performance. This review summarises current knowledge of RRV modelling and reveals a research gap in comparing predictive methods. To improve predictive accuracy, new methods for forecasting, such as non-linear mixed models and machine learning approaches, warrant investigation.

The mosquito electrocuting trap as an exposure-free method for measuring human-biting rates by Aedes mosquito vectors

BACKGROUND

Entomological monitoring of Aedes vectors has largely relied on surveillance of larvae, pupae and non-host-seeking adults, which have been poorly correlated with human disease incidence. Exposure to mosquito-borne diseases can be more directly estimated using human landing catches (HLC), although this method is not recommended for Aedes-borne arboviruses. We evaluated a new method previously tested with malaria vectors, the mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) as an exposure-free alternative for measuring landing rates of Aedes mosquitoes on people. Aims were to (i) compare the MET to the BG-sentinel (BGS) trap gold standard approach for sampling host-seeking Aedes vectors; and (ii) characterize the diel activity of Aedes vectors and their association with microclimatic conditions.

METHODS

The study was conducted over 12 days in Quinindé (Ecuador) in May 2017. Mosquito sampling stations were set up in the peridomestic area of four houses. On each day of sampling, each house was allocated either a MET or a BGS trap, which were rotated amongst the four houses daily in a Latin square design. Mosquito abundance and microclimatic conditions were recorded hourly at each sampling station between 7:00-19:00 h to assess variation between vector abundance, trapping methods, and environmental conditions. All Aedes aegypti females were tested for the presence of Zika (ZIKV), dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses.

RESULTS

A higher number of Ae. aegypti females were found in MET than in BGS collections, although no statistically significant differences in mean Ae. aegypti abundance between trapping methods were found. Both trapping methods indicated female Ae. aegypti had bimodal patterns of host-seeking, being highest during early morning and late afternoon hours. Mean Ae. aegypti daily abundance was negatively associated with daily temperature. No infection by ZIKV, DENV or CHIKV was detected in any Aedes mosquitoes caught by either trapping method.

CONCLUSION

We conclude the MET performs at least as well as the BGS standard and offers the additional advantage of direct measurement of per capita human-biting rates. If detection of arboviruses can be confirmed in MET-collected Aedes in future studies, this surveillance method could provide a valuable tool for surveillance and prediction on human arboviral exposure risk.

Flooding and Arboviral Disease: Predicting Ross River Virus Disease Outbreaks Across Inland Regions of South-Eastern Australia

Flood frequency is expected to increase across the globe with climate change. Understanding the relationship between flooding and arboviral disease can reduce disease risk and associated costs. South-eastern Australia is dominated by the flood-prone Murray-Darling River system where the incidence of Australia's most common arboviral disease, Ross River virus (RRV), is high. This study aimed to determine the relationship between riverine flooding and RRV disease outbreaks in inland south-eastern Australia, specifically New South Wales (NSW). Each study month from 1991 to 2013, for each of 37 local government areas (LGAs) was assigned 'outbreak/non-outbreak' status based on long-term trimmed-average age-standardized RRV notification rates and 'flood/non-flood' status based on riverine overflow. LGAs were grouped into eight climate zones with the relationship between flood and RRV outbreak modeled using generalized estimating equations. Modeling adjusted for rainfall in the previous 1-3 mo. Spring-summer flooding increased the odds of summer RRV outbreaks in three climate zones before and after adjusting for rainfall 1, 2, and 3 mo prior to the outbreak. Flooding at any time of the year was not predictive of RRV outbreaks in the remaining five climate zones. Predicting RRV disease outbreaks with flood events can assist with more targeted mosquito spraying programs, thereby reducing disease transmission and mosquito resistance.

The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.

Parasites and wildlife in a changing world: The vector-host- pathogen interaction as a learning case

In the Anthropocene context, changes in climate, land use and biodiversity are considered among the most important anthropogenic factors affecting parasites-host interaction and wildlife zoonotic diseases emergence. Transmission of vector borne pathogens are particularly sensitive to these changes due to the complexity of their cycle, where the transmission of a microparasite depends on the interaction between its vector, usually a macroparasite, and its reservoir host, in many cases represented by a wildlife vertebrate. The scope of this paper focuses on the effect of some major, fast-occurring anthropogenic changes on the vectorial capacity for tick and mosquito borne pathogens. Specifically, we review and present the latest advances regarding two emerging vector-borne viruses in Europe: Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and West Nile virus (WNV). In both cases, variation in vector to host ratio is critical in determining the intensity of pathogen transmission and consequently infection hazard for humans. Forecasting vector-borne disease hazard under the global change scenarios is particularly challenging, requiring long term studies based on a multidisciplinary approach in a One-Health framework.

The ecology and epidemiology of Ross River and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses in Western Australia: examples of One Health in Action

Arboviruses are maintained and transmitted through an alternating biological cycle in arthropods and vertebrates, with largely incidental disease in humans and animals. As such, they provide excellent examples of One Health, as their health impact is inextricably linked to their vertebrate hosts, their arthropod vectors and the environment. Prevention and control requires a comprehensive understanding of these interactions, and how they may be effectively and safely modified. This review concentrates on human disease due to Ross River and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, the two major arboviral pathogens in Australia. It describes how their pattern of infection and disease is influenced by natural climatic and weather patterns, and by anthropogenic activities. The latter includes human-mediated environmental manipulations, such as water impoundment infrastructures, human movements and migration, and community and social changes, such as urban spread into mosquito larval habitats. Effective interventions need to be directed at the environmental precursors of risk. This can best be achieved using One Health approaches to improve collaboration and coordination between different disciplines and cross-sectoral jurisdictions in order to develop more holistic mitigation and control procedures, and to address poorly understood ecological issues through multidisciplinary research.

The non-human reservoirs of Ross River virus: a systematic review of the evidence

Understanding the non-human reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens is critical for effective disease control, but identifying the relative contributions of the various reservoirs of multi-host pathogens is challenging. For Ross River virus (RRV), knowledge of the transmission dynamics, in particular the role of non-human species, is important. In Australia, RRV accounts for the highest number of human mosquito-borne virus infections. The long held dogma that marsupials are better reservoirs than placental mammals, which are better reservoirs than birds, deserves critical review. We present a review of 50 years of evidence on non-human reservoirs of RRV, which includes experimental infection studies, virus isolation studies and serosurveys. We find that whilst marsupials are competent reservoirs of RRV, there is potential for placental mammals and birds to contribute to transmission dynamics. However, the role of these animals as reservoirs of RRV remains unclear due to fragmented evidence and sampling bias. Future investigations of RRV reservoirs should focus on quantifying complex transmission dynamics across environments.

Fine-temporal forecasting of outbreak probability and severity: Ross River virus in Western Australia

Health warnings of mosquito-borne disease risk require forecasts that are accurate at fine-temporal resolutions (weekly scales); however, most forecasting is coarse (monthly). We use environmental and Ross River virus (RRV) surveillance to predict weekly outbreak probabilities and incidence spanning tropical, semi-arid, and Mediterranean regions of Western Australia (1991–2014). Hurdle and linear models were used to predict outbreak probabilities and incidence respectively, using time-lagged environmental variables. Forecast accuracy was assessed by model fit and cross-validation. Residual RRV notification data were also examined against mitigation expenditure for one site, Mandurah 2007–2014. Models were predictive of RRV activity, except at one site (Capel). Minimum temperature was an important predictor of RRV outbreaks and incidence at all predicted sites. Precipitation was more likely to cause outbreaks and greater incidence among tropical and semi-arid sites. While variable, mitigation expenditure coincided positively with increased RRV incidence (r2 = 0·21). Our research demonstrates capacity to accurately predict mosquito-borne disease outbreaks and incidence at fine-temporal resolutions. We apply our findings, developing a user-friendly tool enabling managers to easily adopt this research to forecast region-specific RRV outbreaks and incidence. Approaches here may be of value to fine-scale forecasting of RRV in other areas of Australia, and other mosquito-borne diseases.

Vertebrate Reservoirs of Arboviruses: Myth, Synonym of Amplifier, or Reality?

The rapid succession of the pandemic of arbovirus diseases, such as dengue, West Nile fever, chikungunya, and Zika fever, has intensified research on these and other arbovirus diseases worldwide. Investigating the unique mode of vector-borne transmission requires a clear understanding of the roles of vertebrates. One major obstacle to this understanding is the ambiguity of the arbovirus definition originally established by the World Health Organization. The paucity of pertinent information on arbovirus transmission at the time contributed to the notion that vertebrates played the role of reservoir in the arbovirus transmission cycle. Because this notion is a salient feature of the arbovirus definition, it is important to reexamine its validity. This review addresses controversial issues concerning vertebrate reservoirs and their role in arbovirus persistence in nature, examines the genesis of the problem from a historical perspective, discusses various unresolved issues from multiple points of view, assesses the present status of the notion in light of current knowledge, and provides options for a solution to resolve the issue.

Addressing knowledge gaps in molecular, sero-surveillance and monitoring approaches on Zika epidemics and other arbovirus co-infections: A structured review

Globalization, with consequent increased travel and trade, rapid urbanization and growing weather variation events due to climate change has contributed to the recent unprecedented Zika virus (ZIKV) pandemic. This has emphasized the pressing need for local, national, regional and global community collaborative proactiveness, leadership and financial investment resilience in research and development. This paper addresses the potential knowledge gaps and impact of early detection and monitoring approaches on ZIKV epidemics and related arboviral infections steered towards effective prevention and smart response strategies. We advocate for the development and validation of robust field and point of care diagnostic tools that are more sensitive, specific and cost effective for use in ZIKV epidemics and routine pathophysiology surveillance and monitoring systems as an imperative avenue in understanding Zika-related and other arbovirus trends and apply genomic and proteomic characterisation approaches in guiding annotation efforts in order to design and implement public health burden mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Epidemic host community contribution to mosquito-borne disease transmission: Ross River virus

Most vector-borne diseases infect multiple host species, but disentangling the relative importance of different host species to transmission can be complex. Here we study how host species' abundance and competence (duration and titre of parasitaemia) influence host importance during epidemic scenarios. We evaluate this theory using Ross River virus (RRV, family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus), a multi-host mosquito-borne disease with significant human health impacts across Australia and Papua New Guinea. We used host contribution models to find the importance of key hosts (possums, wallabies, kangaroos, horses, humans) in typical mammal communities around five Australian epidemic centres. We found humans and possums contributed most to epidemic RRV transmission, owing to their high abundances, generally followed by macropods. This supports humans as spillover hosts, and that human-mosquito and possum-mosquito transmission is predominant during epidemics. Sensitivity analyses indicate these findings to be robust across epidemic centres. We emphasize the importance of considering abundance and competence in identifying key hosts (during epidemics in this case), and that competence alone is inadequate. Knowledge of host importance in disease transmission may help to equip health agencies to bring about greater effectiveness of disease mitigation strategies.

The tortoise or the hare? Impacts of within-host dynamics on transmission success of arthropod-borne viruses

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are maintained in a cycle of alternating transmission between vertebrate hosts and arthropod vectors. Arboviruses possess RNA genomes capable of rapid diversification and adaptation, and the between-host trade-offs inherent to host alternation impose well-documented constraints on arbovirus evolution. Here, we investigate the less well-studied within-host trade-offs that shape arbovirus replication dynamics and transmission. Arboviruses generally establish lifelong infection in vectors but transient infection of variable magnitude (i.e. peak virus concentration) and duration in vertebrate hosts. In the majority of experimental infections of vertebrate hosts, both the magnitude and duration of arbovirus replication depended upon the dose of virus administered, with increasing dose resulting in greater magnitude but shorter duration of viraemia. This pattern suggests that the vertebrate immune response imposes a trade-off between the height and breadth of the virus replication curve. To investigate the impact of this trade-off on transmission, we used a simple modelling approach to contrast the effect of 'tortoise' (low magnitude, long duration viraemia) and 'hare' (high magnitude, short duration viraemia) arbovirus replication strategies on transmission. This model revealed that, counter to previous theory, arboviruses that adopt a tortoise strategy have higher rates of persistence in both host and vector populations.

A Bayesian Belief Network for Murray Valley encephalitis virus risk assessment in Western Australia

BACKGROUND

Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a clinically important virus in Australia responsible for a number of epidemics over the past century. Since there is no vaccine for MVEV, other preventive health measures to curtail its spread must be considered, including the development of predictive risk models and maps to help direct public health interventions. This article aims to support these approaches by presenting a model for assessing MVEV risk in Western Australia (WA).

METHODS

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing MVEV risk was developed and used to quantify and map disease risks in WA. The model combined various abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors that might affect the risk of MVEV into a predictive framework, based on the ecology of the major mosquito vector and waterbird hosts of MVEV. It was further refined and tested using retrospective climate data from 4 years (2000, 2003, 2009, and 2011).

RESULTS

Implementing the model across WA demonstrated that it could predict locations of human MVEV infection and sentinel animal seroconversion in the 4 years tested with some degree of accuracy. In general, risks are highest in the State's north and lower in the south. The model predicted that short-term climate change, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B emissions scenario, would decrease MVEV risks in summer and autumn, largely due to higher temperatures decreasing vector survival.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first model to use a BBN to quantify MVEV risks in WA. The models and maps developed here may assist public health agencies in preparing for and managing Murray Valley encephalitis in the future. In its current form, the model is knowledge-driven and based on the analysis of potential risk factors that affect the dynamics of MVEV using retrospective data. Further work and additional testing should be carried out to test its validity in future years.

Does host receptivity or host exposure drives dynamics of infectious diseases? The case of West Nile Virus in wild birds

Infection is a complex biological process involving reciprocally both the intensity of host exposure to a pathogen as well as the host intrinsic "receptivity", or permissiveness to infection. Disentangling their respective contributions is currently seen as a fundamental gap in our knowledge. Here, we take the advantage of a rare semi-natural experiment context provided by the emergence of the West Nile Virus (WNV) in North America. Focusing on the pathogen emergence period, we combine datasets from (i) wild birds exposed to WNV in an urban zoo to evaluate the species intrinsic receptivity to WNV infection in an environment where exposure to WNV vectors can be assumed to be relatively homogenous for all captive species, and (ii) from free-ranging birds in their natural habitat where species ecological traits is expected to influence their exposure to WNV vectors. We show that ecological trait and intrinsic receptivity to infection both contribute similarly to the species variation in WNV seroprevalence, but considering only one of them can lead to erroneous conclusions. We then argue that degree of pathogen host specialization could be a fundamental factor for the respective contribution of species exposure and receptivity for numerous pathogens.

Understanding West Nile virus ecology in Europe: Culex pipiens host feeding preference in a hotspot of virus emergence

BACKGROUND

Understanding wildlife disease ecology is becoming an urgent need due to the continuous emergence and spread of several wildlife zoonotic diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is the most widespread arthropod-borne virus in the world, and in recent decades there has been an increase both in geographic range, and in the frequency of symptomatic infections in humans and wildlife. The principal vector for WNV in Europe is the common house Culex pipiens mosquito, which feeds on a wide variety of vertebrate host species. Variation in mosquito feeding preference has been described as one of the most influential parameters driving intensity and timing of WNV infection in the United States, but feeding preferences for this species have been little studied in Europe.

METHODS

Here, we estimated feeding preference for wild Cx. pipiens in northern Italy, using molecular analysis to identify the origin of blood meals, and avian census to control host abundance variations. Additionally, we used host bird odour extracts to test experimentally mosquito preferences in the absence of environmental variations.

RESULTS

For the first time, we demonstrate a clear feeding preference for the common blackbird (Turdus merula), both for wild collected specimens and in the lab, suggesting a potential important role for this species in the WNV epidemiology in Europe. A seasonal decrease in abundance of blackbirds is associated with increased feeding on Eurasian magpies (Pica pica), and this may be linked to seasonal emergence of WNV in humans. Feeding preferences on blackbirds are more marked in rural areas, while preference for magpies is higher in peridomestic areas. Other species, such as the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) appear to be selected by mosquitoes opportunistically in relation to its abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new insights into the ecology of Cx. pipiens in Europe and may give useful indications in terms of implementing targeted WNV surveillance plans. However, a clearer understanding of spatio-temporal variations of Cx. pipiens feeding preferences, and targeted studies on reservoir competence for WNV for these species are therefore now urgently needed as this is essential to describe disease dynamics and quantify virus transmission risk.

Is restoring an ecosystem good for your health?

It is well known that the degradation of ecosystems can have serious impacts on human health. There is currently a knowledge gap on what impact restoring ecosystems has on human health. In restoring ecosystems there is a drive to restore the functionality of ecosystems rather than restoring ecosystems to 'pristine' condition. Even so, the complete restoration of all ecosystem functions is not necessarily possible. Given the uncertain trajectory of the ecosystem during the ecosystem restoration process the impact of the restoration on human health is also uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the restoration of ecosystems for human health is still a necessity.

Analysis and prediction of Ross River virus transmission in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The disease is maintained in enzootic cycles between mosquitoes and reservoir hosts. During outbreaks and in endemic regions, RRV transmission can be sustained between vectors and reservoir hosts in zoonotic cycles with spillover to humans. Symptoms include arthritis, rash, fever and fatigue and can persist for several months. The prevalence and associated morbidity make this disease a medically and economically important mosquito-borne disease in Australia.

METHODS

Climate, environment, and RRV vector and reservoir host information were used to develop predictive models in four regions in NSW over a 13-year period (1991-2004). Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to explore long-term influences of up to 2 years ago that could be related to RRV activity.

RESULTS

Each regional model consisted of a unique combination of predictors for RRV disease highlighting the differences in the disease ecology and epidemiology in New South Wales (NSW). Events up to 2 years before were found to influence RRV activity. The shorter-term associations may reflect conditions that promote virus amplification in RRV vectors whereas long-term associations may reflect RRV reservoir host breeding and herd immunity. The models indicate an association between host populations and RRV disease, lagged by 24 months, suggesting two or more generations of susceptible juveniles may be necessary for an outbreak. Model sensitivities ranged from 60.4% to 73.1%, and model specificities ranged from 57.9% to 90.7%. This was the first study to include reservoir host data into statistical RRV models; the inclusion of host parameters was found to improve model fit significantly.

CONCLUSION

The research presents the novel use of a combination of climate, environment, and RRV vector and reservoir host information in statistical predictive models. The models have potential for public health decision-making.

Studying immunity to zoonotic diseases in the natural host - keeping it real

Zoonotic viruses pose a serious threat to human and animal health. Studying the immune response to zoonotic pathogens in the natural reservoir hosts, rather than traditional animal models, offers important insights into control strategies.

Comparative studies in natural host systems have provided key information and improved our understanding of co-evolution of hosts and pathogens. This could lead to the discovery of novel immune mechanisms that control viral replication.

Understanding the differences between the immune systems of domesticated and wild animal hosts and comparing them to the human immune system is crucial for unravelling the complex disease mechanisms involved in zoonotic infections and for developing new strategies for disrupting their transmission to humans.

The use of non-traditional animal models for research poses many challenges. These include the need for specialist high-biosecurity containment facilities, a lack of species-specific reagents for immunology studies, and complex husbandry, ethics and welfare issues.

Whole-genome sequencing and comparative analysis of host species have provided key insights into how different immune responses are made to the same pathogen.

The identification of key differences in immune pathways between susceptible and non-susceptible hosts might offer clues for developing disease intervention strategies, including new antiviral vaccines and therapies, and disease-resistant animals.

Immunology is traditionally viewed as a science of 'mice and men'. However, key insights can come from the study of immune responses in livestock or wild animals. The fact that the most deadly pathogens of humans are often zoonotic in nature lends further weight to the importance of this research. The authors discuss the benefits of, and challenges posed by, these studies.

Zoonotic viruses that emerge from wildlife and domesticated animals pose a serious threat to human and animal health. In many instances, mouse models have improved our understanding of the human immune response to infection; however, when dealing with emerging zoonotic diseases, they may be of limited use. This is particularly the case when the model fails to reproduce the disease status that is seen in the natural reservoir, transmission species or human host. In this Review, we discuss how researchers are placing more emphasis on the study of the immune response to zoonotic infections in the natural reservoir hosts and spillover species. Such studies will not only lead to a greater understanding of how these infections induce variable disease and immune responses in distinct species but also offer important insights into the evolution of mammalian immune systems.

Ecologic and sociodemographic risk determinants for dengue transmission in urban areas in Thailand

This study analyzed the association between household-level ecologic and individual-level sociodemographic determinants and dengue transmission in urban areas of Chachoengsao province, Thailand. The ecologic and sociodemographic variables were examined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. In the ecologic model, dengue risk was related to households situated in the ecotope of residential mixed with commercial and densely populated urban residential areas (RCDENPURA) (aOR = 2.23, P = 0.009), high historical dengue risk area (aOR = 2.06, P < 0.001), and presence of household window screens (aOR = 1.62, P = 0.023). In the sociodemographic model, the dengue risk was related to householders aged >45 years (aOR = 3.24, P = 0.003), secondary and higher educational degrees (aOR = 2.33, P = 0.013), household members >4 persons (aOR = 2.01, P = 0.02), and community effort in environmental management by clean-up campaign (aOR = 1.91, P = 0.035). It is possible that the preventive measures were positively correlated with dengue risk because these activities were generally carried out in particular households or communities following dengue experiences or dengue outbreaks. Interestingly, the ecotope of RCDENPURA and high historical dengue risk area appeared to be very good predictors of dengue incidences.

Understanding the ecological drivers of avian influenza virus infection in wildfowl: a continental-scale study across Africa

Despite considerable effort for surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza viruses (AIVs), empirical investigations of ecological drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds are still scarce. Here we used a continental-scale dataset, collected in tropical wetlands of 15 African countries, to test the relative roles of a range of ecological factors on patterns of AIV prevalence in wildfowl. Seasonal and geographical variations in prevalence were positively related to the local density of the wildfowl community and to the wintering period of Eurasian migratory birds in Africa. The predominant influence of wildfowl density with no influence of climatic conditions suggests, in contrast to temperate regions, a predominant role for inter-individual transmission rather than transmission via long-lived virus persisting in the environment. Higher prevalences were found in Anas species than in non-Anas species even when we account for differences in their foraging behaviour (primarily dabbling or not) or their geographical origin (Eurasian or Afro-tropical), suggesting the existence of intrinsic differences between wildfowl taxonomic groups in receptivity to infection. Birds were found infected as often in oropharyngeal as in cloacal samples, but rarely for both types of sample concurrently, indicating that both respiratory and digestive tracts may be important for AIV replication.

Dryland salinity and vector-borne disease emergence in southwestern Australia

Broad-scale clearing of native vegetation for agriculture in southwestern Australia has resulted in severe ecosystem degradation, which has been compounded by the subsequent development of large areas of dryland salinity; decreased transevaporation allows the water table to rise, dissolving ancient aeolian salt deposits and creating saline surface pools. The mosquito-borne disease Ross River virus has been noted as a potential adverse human health outcome in salinity-affected regions because the principal vector, Aedes camptorhynchus, is salt tolerant and thrives preferentially in such systems. To understand the geology and ecology underlying the relationship between land clearing and disease emergence, we examine the relationship between dryland salinity processes that determine the dissolved solids profile of saline pools in affected areas, the mosquito vectors and interactions with the human population within the disease cycle. Aedes camptorhynchus is able to survive in a wide range of salinities in pools created by dryland salinity processes. The link with disease emergence is achieved where population distribution and activity overlaps with the convergence of environmental and ecological conditions that enhance disease transmission.

A multi-year study of mosquito feeding patterns on avian hosts in a southeastern focus of eastern equine encephalitis virus

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that cycles in birds but also causes severe disease in humans and horses. We examined patterns of avian host use by vectors of EEEV in Alabama from 2001 to 2009 using blood-meal analysis of field-collected mosquitoes and avian abundance surveys. The northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) was the only preferred host (fed on significantly more than expected based on abundance) of Culiseta melanura, the enzootic vector of EEEV. Preferred hosts of Culex erraticus, a putative bridge vector of EEEV, were American robin (Turdus migratorius), Carolina chickadee (Poecile carolinensis), barred owl (Strix varia), and northern mockingbird (Mimus polyglottis). Our results provide insight into the relationships between vectors of EEEV and their avian hosts in the Southeast and suggest that the northern cardinal may be important in the ecology of EEEV in this region.

Environmental drivers of Ross River virus in southeastern Tasmania, Australia: towards strengthening public health interventions

In Australia, Ross River virus (RRV) is predominantly identified and managed through passive health surveillance. Here, the proactive use of environmental datasets to improve community-scale public health interventions in southeastern Tasmania is explored. Known environmental drivers (temperature, rainfall, tide) of the RRV vector Aedes camptorhynchus are analysed against cumulative case records for five adjacent local government areas (LGAs) from 1993 to 2009. Allowing for a 0- to 3-month lag period, temperature was the most significant driver of RRV cases at 1-month lag, contributing to a 23·2% increase in cases above the long-term case average. The potential for RRV to become an emerging public health issue in Tasmania due to projected climate changes is discussed. Moreover, practical outputs from this research are proposed including the development of an early warning system for local councils to implement preventative measures, such as public outreach and mosquito spray programmes.

Biological and cultural coevolution and emerging infectious disease: Ross River virus in Australia

Enhanced virulence of pathogens infecting host populations, with no previous exposure thereto, is characteristic of many diseases labelled "emerging" or "resurging". One cause of emergence characteristics can be interpreted as absence of co-evolutionary optimization of interactions between hosts and pathogens. We explore the historical and evolutionary development between Ross River virus (RRV) and its human host in Australia; a mosquito vectored pathogen causing polyarthritic symptoms. Epidemics of RRV have increased in frequency, size and range throughout European settlement. We hypothesise that human cultural evolution contributed to the emergence of RRV in humans, and argue that epidemics of RRV were unlikely to occur in Aboriginal hunter-gatherer societies in Australia's early human history, but only occur in more recent agrarian and industrial societies. A perspective of cultural evolution, in addition to biological evolution, may help with understanding the determinants of disease emergence and resurgence, and inform ongoing development of effective public health interventions.

Sampling frequency differentially influences interpretation of zoonotic pathogen and host dynamics: Sin Nombre virus and deer mice

Reports of novel emerging and resurging wildlife and zoonotic diseases have increased. Consequently, integration of pathogen sampling into wildlife monitoring programs has grown. Sampling frequency influences interpretations of coupled host-pathogen dynamics, with direct implication to human exposure risk, but has received little empirical attention. To address this, a 15-year study, based on monthly sampling, of deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) populations and Sin Nombre virus (SNV; a virulent disease in humans) dynamics was evaluated. Estimates of deer mouse abundance, number infected with SNV, and SNV prevalence from sampling less frequently than each month (achieved by deletion of months and recalculation of these parameters) were compared to monthly sampling frequencies. Deer mouse abundance was underestimated (10%-20%), SNV prevalence was overestimated when prevalence was high (>15%), and fewer annual extremes of abundance and infection were detected when sampling frequency was less than monthly. Effort necessary to detect temporal dynamics of SNV differed from effort to detect demographic patterns in deer mouse abundance. Findings here are applicable to sampling strategies for other host-pathogen dynamics and have direct implications for allocation of public health resources and intervention programs.

Environmental monitoring to enhance comprehension and control of infectious diseases

In a world of emerging and resurging infectious diseases, dominated by zoonoses, environmental monitoring plays a vital role in our understanding their dynamics and their spillover to humans. Here, we critically review the ecology, epidemiology and need for monitoring of a variety of directly transmitted (Sin Nombre virus, Avian Influenza) and vector-borne (Ross River virus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis and babesiosis) zoonoses. We focus on the valuable role that existing monitoring plays in the understanding of these zoonoses, the demands for new monitoring, and how improvements can be made to existing monitoring. We also identify the fruitful outcomes which would result from implementation of the monitoring demands we have highlighted. This review aims to promote improvements in our understanding of zoonoses, their management, and public health by encouraging discussion among researchers and public health officials.

Local context drives infection of grasses by vector-borne generalist viruses

Host characteristics commonly determine infection risk, but infection can also be mediated by regional- or local-scale variation in the biotic and abiotic environment. Experiments can clarify the relative importance of these factors. We quantified drivers of infection by barley and cereal yellow dwarf viruses (B/CYDV), a group of generalist, vector-borne grass pathogens, at hierarchically nested spatial scales (10(5)-1 m) by planting individuals of six common grass species into five Pacific Coast grassland sites spanning 7 degrees of latitude (> 5000 total hosts) and applying a factorial combination of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer. Infection differed most among experimental blocks (10(2)-10(3) m scale), suggesting that local factors control infection risk; infection increased with cover of long-lived hosts and phosphorus, but not nitrogen, fertilization. For B/CYDV, local context more strongly predicts infection risk than host species traits or regional context; such spatially nested experiments can clarify the factors underlying variation in infection risk.

Emergence of zoonotic arboviruses by animal trade and migration

Arboviruses are transmitted in nature exclusively or to a major extend by arthropods. They belong to the most important viruses invading new areas in the world and their occurrence is strongly influenced by climatic changes due to the life cycle of the transmitting vectors. Several arboviruses have emerged in new regions of the world during the last years, like West Nile virus (WNV) in the Americas, Usutu virus (USUV) in Central Europe, or Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the Arabian Peninsula. In most instances the ways of introduction of arboviruses into new regions are not known. Infections acquired during stays in the tropics and subtropics are diagnosed with increasing frequency in travellers returning from tropical countries, but interestingly no attention is paid on accompanying pet animals or the hematophagous ectoparasites that may still be attached to them. Here we outline the known ecology of the mosquito-borne equine encephalitis viruses (WEEV, EEEV, and VEEV), WNV, USUV, RVFV, and Japanese Encephalitis virus, as well as Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus and its North American counterpart Powassan virus, and will discuss the most likely mode that these viruses could expand their respective geographical range. All these viruses have a different epidemiology as different vector species, reservoir hosts and virus types have adapted to promiscuous and robust or rather very fine-balanced transmission cycles. Consequently, these viruses will behave differently with regard to the requirements needed to establish new endemic foci outside their original geographical ranges. Hence, emphasis is given on animal trade and suitable ecologic conditions, including competent vectors and vertebrate hosts.