Limiting Alcohol Outlet Density to Prevent Alcohol Use and Violence: Estimating Policy Interventions Through Agent-Based Modeling

How can agent-based modelling provide new insights into the impact of minimum unit pricing in Scotland?

In recent years we have gained insight into the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP)-a legal floor price below which a given volume of alcohol cannot be sold-on population-level reductions in alcohol sales, consumption and harm. However, several questions remain unanswered including how individual-level purchasing changes impact the local economy (e.g., balance between on-licence and off-licence outlets), lead to long-term population-level trends (e.g., youth drinking) and social harms (e.g., violence). Agent-based modelling captures heterogeneity, emergence, feedback loops and adaptive and dynamic features, which provides an opportunity to understand the nuanced effects of MUP. Agent-based models (ABM) simulate heterogeneous agents (e.g., individuals, organisations) often situated in space and time that interact with other agents and/or with their environment, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying social phenomena. ABMs are particularly useful for theory development, and testing and simulating the impacts of policies and interventions. We illustrate how ABMs could be applied to generate novel insights and provide best estimates of social network effects, and changes in purchasing behaviour and social harms, due to the implementation of MUP. ABMs like other modelling approaches can simulate alternative implementations of MUP (e.g., policy intensity [£0.50, £0.60] or spatial scales [local, national]) but can also provide an understanding of the potential impact of MUP on different population groups (e.g., alcohol exposure of young people who are not yet drinking). Using ABMs to understand the impact of MUP would provide new insights to complement those from traditional epidemiological and other modelling methods.

Spatial Analysis of the Alcohol, Intimate Partner Violence, and HIV Syndemic Among Women in South Africa

The co-occurrence of and synergistic interactions between substance abuse, violence, and HIV, known as the "SAVA syndemic," is thought to be a driver of women's elevated risk for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. This study uses data from the 2016 South African Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 2016 South African Census to examine geospatial associations between alcohol use, intimate partner violence (IPV), unprotected sex, and HIV status among a population-based sample of 8528 South African women (age 15-49). Results support the geographic clustering of alcohol use, unprotected sex, and IPV, but not HIV, and geospatial clustering of HIV alone. This study highlights the need for geographically-tailored interventions to address syndemics through integrated interventions, such as those simultaneously focused on alcohol, IPV, and sexual risk reduction, and points to the need for more targeted research to link these factors to HIV from a place-based risk perspective.

Systems Thinking and Complexity Science Methods and the Policy Process in Non-communicable Disease Prevention: A Systematic Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Given the complex determinants of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and the dynamic policy landscape, researchers and policymakers are exploring the use of systems thinking and complexity science (STCS) in developing effective policies. The aim of this review is to systematically identify and analyse existing applications of STCS-informed methods in NCD prevention policy.

METHODS

Systematic scoping review: We searched academic databases (Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE) for all publications indexed by 13 October 2020, screening titles, abstracts and full texts and extracting data according to published guidelines. We summarised key data from each study, mapping applications of methods informed by STCS to policy process domains. We conducted a thematic analysis to identify advantages, limitations, barriers and facilitators to using STCS.

RESULTS

4681 papers were screened and 112 papers were included in this review. The most common policy areas were tobacco control, obesity prevention and physical activity promotion. Methods applied included system dynamics modelling, agent-based modelling and concept mapping. Advantages included supporting evidence-informed decision-making; modelling complex systems and addressing multi-sectoral problems. Limitations included the abstraction of reality by STCS methods, despite aims of encompassing greater complexity. Challenges included resource-intensiveness; lack of stakeholder trust in models; and results that were too complex to be comprehensible to stakeholders. Ensuring stakeholder ownership and presenting findings in a user-friendly way facilitated STCS use.

CONCLUSION

This review maps the proliferating applications of STCS methods in NCD prevention policy. STCS methods have the potential to generate tailored and dynamic evidence, adding robustness to evidence-informed policymaking, but must be accessible to policy stakeholders and have strong stakeholder ownership to build consensus and change stakeholder perspectives. Evaluations of whether, and under what circumstances, STCS methods lead to more effective policies compared to conventional methods are lacking, and would enable more targeted and constructive use of these methods.

A systems framework depicting how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of an alcohol outlet zoning policy

An updated zoning policy eliminating all alcohol outlets (liquor stores) in residential districts was implemented to reduce high rates of violent crime in Baltimore City. Diverse stakeholders were engaged in group model building (GMB) activities to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that elucidate the impact of the new zoning policy on crime, and more broadly, the potentially unintended social and environmental consequences of the policy. Three distinct groups, community advocates, city officials/academics, and community residents, participated in three separate GMB sessions. Three CLDs, one from each stakeholder group, were created to depict the possible outcomes of the zoning policy. Our findings offer insight into potential unintended consequences of removing liquor stores from residential areas that may undermine the policy. Community members described the need for additional supports related to mental health and substance use, opportunities for investment in the community, access to other goods and services, and community-police relations to ensure the policy achieved its intended goal of reducing violent crime. Our findings highlight the importance of timely engagement of local stakeholders to understand how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of a zoning policy change.

Agent-Based Modeling: an Underutilized Tool in Community Violence Research

Purpose of Review

Recent Findings

Summary

Applying a complex systems perspective to alcohol consumption and the prevention of alcohol-related harms in the 21st century: a scoping review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A complex systems perspective has been advocated to explore multi-faceted factors influencing public health issues, including alcohol consumption and associated harms. This scoping review aimed to identify studies that applied a complex systems perspective to alcohol consumption and the prevention of alcohol-related harms in order to summarize their characteristics and identify evidence gaps.

METHODS

Studies published between January 2000 and September 2020 in English were located by searching for terms synonymous with 'complex systems' and 'alcohol' in the Scopus, MEDLINE, Web of Science and Embase databases, and through handsearching and reference screening of included studies. Data were extracted on each study's aim, country, population, alcohol topic, system levels, funding, theory, methods, data sources, time-frames, system modifications and type of findings produced.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven individual studies and three systematic reviews were identified, the majority of which were conducted in the United States or Australia in the general population, university students or adolescents. Studies explored types and patterns of consumption behaviour and the local environments in which alcohol is consumed. Most studies focused on individual and local interactions and influences, with fewer examples exploring the relationships between these and regional, national and international subsystems. The body of literature is methodologically diverse and includes theory-led approaches, dynamic simulation models and social network analyses. The systematic reviews focused on primary network studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a complex systems perspective has provided a variety of ways of conceptualizing and analyzing alcohol use and harm prevention efforts, but its focus ultimately has remained on predominantly individual- and/or local-level systems. A complex systems perspective represents an opportunity to address this gap by also considering the vertical dimensions that constrain, shape and influence alcohol consumption and related harms, but the literature to date has not fully captured this potential.

Understanding Neighborhoods' Impact on Youth Substance Use and Mental Health Outcomes in Paterson, New Jersey: Protocol for a Community-Based Participatory Research Study

BACKGROUND

Substance use among youth is a major public health concern. Of note, substance use among youth is increasing in prevalence, and the incidence of substance use at earlier ages is rising. Given the long-term consequences of early substance use, it is important to identify factors that increase youth vulnerability to drug use, as they may be important targets for future interventions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to use innovative methods, such as venue-based sampling, to recruit youth who are disconnected from school and use community-based participatory research to gain a better understanding of the prevalence of substance use and important correlates among youth aged between 13 and 21 years in Paterson, New Jersey, a low-income, urban community. The study will use a convergent, mixed methods design involving multiple data collection components and the analysis of a ministrative data source, designed with the strengths of complex intervention frameworks in mind. The overall aims of the study are to identify the prevalence of substance use among youth who are engaged in school and not engaged in school; to understand important antecedents and correlates of substance use; and to use this information to inform social, environmental, and culturally appropriate interventions to address substance use and its correlates among youths in a lower-resourced urban community.

METHODS

This study will use both qualitative and quantitative methods to address important questions. Specifically, semistructured interviews using focus group and interview methodologies will be used to assess youths' lived experiences and will account for specific details that quantitative methods may not be able to attain. In addition, quantitative methods will be used to examine direct and multilevel associations between neighborhood factors and youth substance use and mental health outcomes.

RESULTS

A previous analysis from a substance use initiative in Paterson, New Jersey found that youth who use substances such as marijuana and alcohol are more likely to have higher rates of depression and anxiety. On the basis of the research questions, this study will examine the association between neighborhood characteristics, substance use, and mental health symptoms among youth in Paterson by using quantitative and qualitative methods and will use these findings to inform the adaptation of a community- and evidence-based substance use prevention intervention for these youths.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study will provide an important contribution to understanding the role of socioecological factors in predicting substance use and mental health outcomes among youth in a lower-resourced, urban community. Furthermore, these findings will serve as evidence for the development of a culturally informed, community-based prevention program to address substance use disparities for youth, including those who are truant in Paterson, New Jersey.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/29427.

Place management in off-premise alcohol outlets: Results of a multi-methods study in a six-city California area

BACKGROUND

Associations between neighborhood crime and alcohol outlets are often theorized as resulting from poor place management. Barriers and supports to place management have been examined for on-premise (bars, restaurants) but not for off-premise alcohol outlets. Few studies have assessed place management issues across a range of off-premise outlet and neighborhood types, and none have included the perspectives of off-premise outlet managers themselves. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods within an ethnographic approach, we investigated barriers and supports to place management across off-premise outlets in a large urban area.

METHODS

We unobtrusively assessed outlet operating characteristics including crime prevention strategies at all 403 off-premise outlets in six contiguous California cities; interviewed managers in 40 outlets; and conducted extensive naturalistic observations in 15 of these 40 outlets. We analyzed data for frequencies and thematic content.

RESULTS

Small and independently operated off-premise outlets were the most common type of outlet in our study, but demonstrated fewer resources and more challenges to place management compared to large and chain establishments. Security guards were more observed in large and chain outlets. Small and independent outlets were more likely to post signs prohibiting loitering and to enable surveillance of interior spaces. Problems most commonly cited by managers were theft and loitering. Challenges to place management included physical and verbal threats from customers and intoxicated persons, and insufficient law enforcement. Managers evidenced some ability to assert authority over interior, private space, but less so over exterior, public space.

CONCLUSIONS

Although tasked with maintaining public health and safety, small and independent store managers reported challenges that are seldom acknowledged in policy or research literature. Managers may provide valuable insights on preventing and reducing neighborhood-level problems associated with off-premise alcohol outlets. Local communities should consider enhancing place management resources for managers of small and independent outlets.