Predictive Value of Ov16 Antibody Prevalence in Different Subpopulations for Elimination of African Onchocerciasis

Predictive Value of Microfilariae-Based Stop-MDA Thresholds After Triple Drug Therapy With IDA Against Lymphatic Filariasis in Treatment-Naive Indian Settings

Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the main strategy for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). Recent clinical trials indicated that the triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA) is much more effective against LF than the widely used two-drug combinations (albendazole plus either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine). For IDA-based MDA, the stop-MDA decision is made based on microfilariae (mf) prevalence in adults. In this study, we assess how the probability of eventually reaching elimination of transmission depends on the critical threshold used in transmission assessment surveys (TAS-es) to define whether transmission was successfully suppressed and triple-drug MDA can be stopped. This analysis focuses on treatment-naive Indian settings. We do this for a range of epidemiological and programmatic contexts, using the established LYMFASIM model for transmission and control of LF. Based on our simulations, a single TAS, one year after the last MDA round, provides limited predictive value of having achieved suppressed transmission, while a higher MDA coverage increases elimination probability, thus leading to a higher predictive value. Every additional TAS, conditional on previous TAS-es being passed with the same threshold, further improves the predictive value for low values of stop-MDA thresholds. An mf prevalence threshold of 0.5% corresponding to TAS-3 results in ≥95% predictive value even when the MDA coverage is relatively low.

Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis

BACKGROUND

Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed.

METHODS

Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni.

RESULTS

We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.

A general framework to support cost-efficient fecal egg count methods and study design choices for large-scale STH deworming programs-monitoring of therapeutic drug efficacy as a case study

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programs currently lack evidence-based recommendations for cost-efficient survey designs for monitoring and evaluation. Here, we present a framework to provide evidence-based recommendations, using a case study of therapeutic drug efficacy monitoring based on the examination of helminth eggs in stool.

METHODS

We performed an in-depth analysis of the operational costs to process one stool sample for three diagnostic methods (Kato-Katz, Mini-FLOTAC and FECPAKG2). Next, we performed simulations to determine the probability of detecting a truly reduced therapeutic efficacy for different scenarios of STH species (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms), pre-treatment infection levels, survey design (screen and select (SS); screen, select and retest (SSR) and no selection (NS)) and number of subjects enrolled (100-5,000). Finally, we integrated the outcome of the cost assessment into the simulation study to estimate the total survey costs and determined the most cost-efficient survey design.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Kato-Katz allowed for both the highest sample throughput and the lowest cost per test, while FECPAKG2 required both the most laboratory time and was the most expensive. Counting of eggs accounted for 23% (FECPAKG2) or ≥80% (Kato-Katz and Mini-FLOTAC) of the total time-to-result. NS survey designs in combination with Kato-Katz were the most cost-efficient to assess therapeutic drug efficacy in all scenarios of STH species and endemicity.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We confirm that Kato-Katz is the fecal egg counting method of choice for monitoring therapeutic drug efficacy, but that the survey design currently recommended by WHO (SS) should be updated. Our generic framework, which captures laboratory time and material costs, can be used to further support cost-efficient choices for other important surveys informing STH control programs. In addition, it can be used to explore the value of alternative diagnostic techniques, like automated egg counting, which may further reduce operational costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03465488.

Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the main strategy towards lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. Progress is monitored by assessing microfilaraemia (Mf) or circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) prevalence, the latter being more practical for field surveys. The current criterion for stopping MDA requires <2% CFA prevalence in 6- to 7-year olds, but this criterion is not evidence-based. We used mathematical modelling to investigate the validity of different thresholds regarding testing method and age group for African MDA programmes using ivermectin plus albendazole.

METHODOLGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We verified that our model captures observed patterns in Mf and CFA prevalence during annual MDA, assuming that CFA tests are positive if at least one adult worm is present. We then assessed how well elimination can be predicted from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year-old children or from Mf or CFA prevalence in the 5+ or 15+ population, and determined safe (>95% positive predictive value) thresholds for stopping MDA. The model captured trends in Mf and CFA prevalences reasonably well. Elimination cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year olds. Resurgence may still occur if all children are antigen-negative, irrespective of the number tested. Mf-based criteria also show unfavourable results (PPV <95% or unpractically low threshold). CFA prevalences in the 5+ or 15+ population are the best predictors, and post-MDA threshold values for stopping MDA can be as high as 10% for 15+. These thresholds are robust for various alternative assumptions regarding baseline endemicity, biological parameters and sampling strategies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

For African areas with moderate to high pre-treatment Mf prevalence that have had 6 or more rounds of annual ivermectin/albendazole MDA with adequate coverage, we recommend to adopt a CFA threshold prevalence of 10% in adults (15+) for stopping MDA. This could be combined with Mf testing of CFA positives to ensure absence of a significant Mf reservoir for transmission.

Onchocerciasis: Target product profiles of in vitro diagnostics to support onchocerciasis elimination mapping and mass drug administration stopping decisions

In June 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO), recognizing the need for new diagnostics to support the control and elimination of onchocerciasis, published the target product profiles (TPPs) of new tests that would support the two most immediate needs: (a) mapping onchocerciasis in areas of low prevalence and (b) deciding when to stop mass drug administration programs. In both instances, the test should ideally detect an antigen specific for live, adult O. volvulus female worms. The preferred format is a field-deployable rapid test. For mapping, the test needs to be ≥ 60% sensitive and ≥ 99.8% specific, while to support stopping decisions, the test must be ≥ 89% sensitive and ≥ 99.8% specific. The requirement for extremely high specificity is dictated by the need to detect with sufficient statistical confidence the low seroprevalence threshold set by WHO. Surveys designed to detect a 1–2% prevalence of a given biomarker, as is the case here, cannot tolerate more than 0.2% of false-positives. Otherwise, the background noise would drown out the signal. It is recognized that reaching and demonstrating such a stringent specificity criterion will be challenging, but test developers can expect to be assisted by national governments and implementing partners for adequately powered field validation.

River blindness, also known as onchocerciasis, affects 21 million people, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa. For decades, the international community has fought this disease through mass drug administration (MDA) programs focused on controlling morbidity in areas of high prevalence. Now, as part of their 2021–2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set an ambitious goal, shifting from controlling to eliminating onchocerciasis. This implies addressing areas of low infection prevalence. As a result, new diagnostics tools are required to identify and map areas of low onchocerciasis prevalence and to help decide where to initiate MDA. Similarly, new diagnostics are required to decide when the prevalence of onchocerciasis is sufficiently low to justify stopping MDA. A WHO-appointed independent panel, the Diagnostics Technical Advisory Group for Neglected Tropical Diseases, and its subgroup specific to onchocerciasis, have established the desired Target Product Profiles (TPPs) for such new tests. The TPPs were posted in June 2021 on the WHO website. This article describes the methodology used to produce the TPPs, with an emphasis on calculating the required sensitivity and specificity characteristics.

Relationship between skin snip and Ov16 ELISA: Two diagnostic tools for onchocerciasis in a focus in Cameroon after two decades of ivermectin-based preventive chemotherapy

Background

Onchocerciasis elimination currently relies on repeated ivermectin-based preventive chemotherapy. Current World Health Organization’s guidelines strongly recommend, though with low evidence of certainty, the use of Ov16 serology testing in children younger than 10 years old to assess whether mass drugs administration can be safely stopped. Therefore, more evidences are needed to support the use of this marker as sero-evaluation tool. This study aimed at determining the relationship between microfilaridermia and anti-Ov16 IgG4, and their variation according to age, gender and ivermectin intake history.

Methodology

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in an area where ivermectin-based MDA has been implemented since more than 20 years. A questionnaire was used to record ivermectin intake history for the last 5 years. All volunteers aged ≥2 years were tested for microfilaridermia. IgG4 antibodies against Ov16 antigen were determined using the Standard Diagnostic Ov16 IgG4 ELISA kits and the recombinant anti-Ov16 AbD19432 antibodies. Prevalences, microfilaridermia counts and IgG4 concentrations were compared with regards to age, gender and history of ivermectin intake.

Principal findings

The prevalence of skin microfilariae was 23.4% (95% CI: 23.4–30.8), whereas Ov16 seroprevalence was 53.2% (95% CI: 47.9–58.4). A moderate positive percentage agreement (50.4%) and a high negative percentage agreement (69.2%) was found between skin snip and Ov16 serology in the whole population, while in children aged <10 years, the agreements were higher (positive percentage agreement: 62.6%; negative percentage agreement: 83.5%). In addition, no associations were found between ivermectin intake, Mf counts and estimated IgG4 concentration of participants. Anti-Ov16 IgG4 were higher in individuals harboring microfilariae than their negative counterparts (p<0.0001), though a negative correlation was found between skin microfilarial counts and anti-Ov16 IgG4 levels (r = -0.2400; p = 0.03). No variation in microfilarial counts according to age and gender was observed. Though positively correlated with age (r = 0.4020; p<0.0001), IgG4 was significantly different between the different age classes (p<0.0001).

Conclusion/Significance

Our results revealed moderate positive and negative agreements between parasitological and immunological parameters of onchocerciasis infection after several rounds MDA. Anti-Ov16 IgG4 levels increased with age but decreased with microfilarial counts, suggesting a variation of anti-Ov16 IgG4 as a result of constant exposure and accumulation of infection. This brings evidence sustaining the use of Ov16 serology in children as evaluation tool. However, additional investigations are needed to further reshape the appropriate age range among children aged <10 years old.

The elimination of onchocerciasis places high demands on monitoring and evaluation. The current WHO’s guidelines recommend the use of serological test (ELISA) to determine the presence of IgG4 antibodies to the O. volvulus specific antigen Ov16 among children aged <10 years old, thought with low evidence of certainty. In this paper, we explored the relationship between anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibodies and microfilaridermia counts, and assessed their variation according to age, gender and history of ivermectin intake. Our findings revealed no variation of Mf count and IgG4 with ivermectin intake. However, we observed that anti-Ov16 IgG4 decrease with microfilaridermia counts, but an increasing trend was observed with age. This brings evidence sustaining the use of Ov16 serology testing as exposition marker in children younger than 10 years. However, children age 2 to 4 years seem to have a very low anti-Ov16 IgG4 concentration, this finding should be considered when defining the age class for seroprevalence evaluation.

Onchocerca volvulus-specific antibody and cellular responses in onchocerciasis patients treated annually with ivermectin for 30 years and exposed to parasite transmission in central Togo

BACKGROUND

Annual mass drug administrations (MDA) of ivermectin will strongly reduce Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mf) in the skin and in the onchocerciasis patients' eyes. Ivermectin treatment will also affect the expression of immunity in patients, such that activated immune defenses may help control and contribute to clearance of mf of O. volvulus. Longitudinal surveys are a prerequisite to determining the impact of ivermectin on the status of anti-parasite immunity, notably in risk zones where parasite transmission and active O. volvulus infections persist.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Onchocerciasis patients were treated annually with ivermectin and their Onchocerca volvulus antigen (OvAg) specific IgG and cellular responses were investigated before and at 30 years post initial ivermectin treatment (30yPT). Repeated annual ivermectin treatments eliminated persisting O. volvulus microfilariae (mf) from the skin of patients and abrogated patent infections. The OvAg-specific IgG1 and IgG4 responses were diminished at 30yPT to the levels observed in endemic controls. Prior to starting ivermectin treatment, OvAg-induced cellular productions of IL-10, IFN-γ, CCL13, CCL17 and CCL18 were low in patients, and at 30yPT, cellular cytokine and chemokine responses increased to the levels observed in endemic controls. In contrast, mitogen(PHA)- induced IL-10, IFN-γ, CCL17 and CCL18 cellular production was diminished. This divergent response profile thus revealed increased parasite antigen-specific but reduced polyclonal cellular responsiveness in patients. The transmission of O. volvulus continued at the patients' location in the Mô river basin in central Togo 2018 and 2019 when 0.58% and 0.45%, respectively, of Simulium damnosum s.l. vector blackflies carried O. volvulus infections.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Repeated annual ivermectin treatment of onchocerciasis patients durably inhibited their patent O. volvulus infections despite ongoing low-level parasite transmission in the study area. Repeated MDA with ivermectin affects the expression of immunity in patients. O. volvulus parasite-specific antibody levels diminished to levels seen in infection-free endemic controls. With low antibody levels, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxic responses against tissue-dwelling O. volvulus larvae will weaken. O. volvulus antigen inducible cytokine and chemokine production increased in treated mf-negative patients, while their innate responsiveness to mitogen declined. Such lower innate responsiveness in elderly patients could contribute to reduced adaptive immune responses to parasite infections and vaccines. On the other hand, increased specific cellular chemokine responses in mf-negative onchocerciasis patients could reflect effector cell activation against tissue invasive larval stages of O. volvulus. The annual Simulium damnosum s.l. biting rate observed in the Mô river basin was similar to levels prior to initiation of MDA with ivermectin, and the positive rtPCR results reported here confirm ongoing O. volvulus transmission.

Two-stage lot quality assurance sampling framework for monitoring and evaluation of neglected tropical diseases, allowing for imperfect diagnostics and spatial heterogeneity

Background

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is a key component of large-scale neglected tropical diseases (NTD) control programs. Diagnostic tests deployed in these M&E surveys are often imperfect, and it remains unclear how this affects the population-based program decision-making.

Methodology

We developed a 2-stage lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) framework for decision-making that allows for both imperfect diagnostics and spatial heterogeneity of infections. We applied the framework to M&E of soil-transmitted helminth control programs as a case study. For this, we explored the impact of the diagnostic performance (sensitivity and specificity), spatial heterogeneity (intra-cluster correlation), and survey design on program decision-making around the prevalence decisions thresholds recommended by WHO (2%, 10%, 20% and 50%) and the associated total survey costs.

Principal findings

The survey design currently recommended by WHO (5 clusters and 50 subjects per cluster) may lead to incorrect program decisions around the 2% and 10% prevalence thresholds, even when perfect diagnostic tests are deployed. To reduce the risk of incorrect decisions around the 2% prevalence threshold, including more clusters (≥10) and deploying highly specific diagnostic methods (≥98%) are the most-cost saving strategies when spatial heterogeneity is moderate-to-high (intra-cluster correlation >0.017). The higher cost and lower throughput of improved diagnostic tests are compensated by lower required sample sizes, though only when the cost per test is <6.50 US$ and sample throughput is ≥3 per hour.

Conclusion/Significance

Our framework provides a means to assess and update M&E guidelines and guide product development choices for NTD. Using soil-transmitted helminths as a case study, we show that current M&E guidelines may severely fall short, particularly in low-endemic and post-control settings. Furthermore, specificity rather than sensitivity is a critical parameter to consider. When the geographical distribution of an NTD within a district is highly heterogeneous, sampling more clusters (≥10) may be required.

Surveillance for Onchocerciasis-Associated Epilepsy and OV16 IgG4 Testing of Children 6–10 Years Old Should Be Used to Identify Areas Where Onchocerciasis Elimination Programs Need Strengthening

To eliminate onchocerciasis-associated morbidity, it is important to identify areas where there is still high ongoing Onchocerca volvulus transmission. Between 2015 and 2021, door-to-door surveys were conducted in onchocerciasis-endemic villages in Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, South Sudan, and Tanzania to determine epilepsy prevalence and incidence, type of epilepsy and ivermectin therapeutic coverage. Moreover, children aged between six and 10 years were tested for anti-Onchocerca antibodies using the Ov16 IgG4 rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A mixed-effect binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess significantly associated variables of Ov16 antibody seroprevalence. A high prevalence and incidence of epilepsy was found to be associated with a high Ov16 antibody seroprevalence among 6–10-year-old children, except in the Logo health zone, DRC. The low Ov16 antibody seroprevalence among young children in the Logo health zone, despite a high prevalence of epilepsy, may be explained by a recent decrease in O. volvulus transmission because of a decline in the Simulium vector population as a result of deforestation. In the Central African Republic, a new focus of O. volvulus transmission was detected based on the high Ov16 IgG4 seropositivity among children and the detecting of nodding syndrome cases, a phenotypic form of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE). In conclusion, Ov16 IgG4 RDT testing of 6–10-year-old children is a cheap and rapid method to determine the level of ongoing O. volvulus transmission and to assess, together with surveillance for OAE, the performance of onchocerciasis elimination programs.

Whole blood transcriptome analysis in onchocerciasis

Identifying the molecular mechanisms controlling the host’s response to infection with Onchocerca volvulus is important to understand how the human host controls such parasitic infection. Little is known of the cellular immune response upon infection with O. volvulus. We performed a transcriptomic study using PAXgene-preserved whole blood from 30 nodule-positive individuals and 21 non-endemic controls. It was found that of the 45,042 transcripts that were mapped to the human genome, 544 were found to be upregulated and 447 to be downregulated in nodule-positive individuals (adjusted P-value < 0.05). Pathway analysis was performed on this set of differentially expressed genes, which demonstrated an impact on oxidative phosphorylation and protein translation. Upstream regulator analysis showed that the mTOR associated protein RICTOR appears to play an important role in inducing the transcriptional changes in infected individuals. Functional analysis of the genes affected by infection indicated a suppression of antibody response, Th17 immune response and proliferation of activated T lymphocytes. Multiple regression models were used to select 22 genes that could contribute significantly in the generation of a classifier to predict infection with O. volvulus. For these 22 genes, as well as for 8 reference target genes, validated RT-qPCR assays were developed and used to re-analyze the discovery sample set. These data were used to perform elastic net regularized logistic regression and a panel of 7 genes was found to be the best performing classifier. The resulting algorithm returns a value between 0 and 1, reflecting the predicted probability of being infected. A validation panel of 69 nodule-positive individuals and 5 non-endemic controls was used to validate the performance of this classifier. Based on this validation set only, a sensitivity of 94.2% and a specificity of 60.0% was obtained. When combining the discovery test set and validation set, a sensitivity of 96.0% and a specificity of 92.3% was obtained. Large-scale validation approaches will be necessary to define the intended use for this classifier. Besides the use as marker for infection in MDA efficacy surveys and epidemiological transmission studies, this classifier might also hold potential as pharmacodynamic marker in macrofilaricide clinical trials.

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Whole blood transcriptome analysis was performed in onchocerciasis patients.

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Suppression of antibodies, Th17, and proliferation of activated T cells.

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RICTOR plays an important role in inducing the transcriptional changes.

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A 7-gene expression classifier was built as a tool for onchocerciasis detection.

Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: Monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study

Recently, the World Health Organization established the Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests (the so-called target product profiles (TPPs)). We developed two generic frameworks: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect diseased persons) and specificity (probability to correctly detect persons free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples sizes and the decision rules based on a multi-category lot quality assurance sampling (MC-LQAS) approach that accounts for imperfect tests. We applied both frameworks for monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs. Our study indicates that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. The MC-LQAS framework highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in a smaller sample size for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance may be compensated by lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed the required minimal and ideal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for diagnostic tests applied in monitoring and evaluating of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

The World Health Organization established an advisory group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests. To support this advisory group, we developed two generic frameworks, which we applied to soil-transmitted helminthiases: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect a diseased person) and specificity (probability to correctly detect a person free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples size and decision rules during surveys. We showed that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. We also highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in smaller sample sizes for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance can be compensated by the lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed to the advisory group the required performance characteristics of diagnostic tests for soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

Unusual Localization of Blood-Borne Loa loa Microfilariae in the Skin Depends on Microfilarial Density in the Blood: Implications for Onchocerciasis Diagnosis in Coendemic Areas

Background

The diagnostic gold standard for onchocerciasis relies on identification and enumeration of (skin-dwelling) Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mf) using the skin snip technique (SST). In a recent study, blood-borne Loa loa mf were found by SST in individuals heavily infected with L. loa, and microscopically misidentified as O. volvulus due to their superficially similar morphology. This study investigates the relationship between L. loa microfilarial density (Loa MFD) and the probability of testing SST positive.

Methods

A total of 1053 participants from the (onchocerciasis and loiasis coendemic) East Region in Cameroon were tested for (1) Loa MFD in blood samples, (2) O. volvulus presence by SST, and (3) Immunoglobulin (Ig) G4 antibody positivity to Ov16 by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to perform a supervised classification of SST status and identify a Loa MFD threshold above which it is highly likely to find L. loa mf in skin snips.

Results

Of 1011 Ov16-negative individuals, 28 (2.8%) tested SST positive and 150 (14.8%) were L. loa positive. The range of Loa MFD was 0–85 200 mf/mL. The CART model subdivided the sample into 2 Loa MFD classes with a discrimination threshold of 4080 (95% CI, 2180–12 240) mf/mL. The probability of being SST positive exceeded 27% when Loa MFD was >4080 mf/mL.

Conclusions

The probability of finding L. loa mf by SST increases significantly with Loa MFD. Skin-snip polymerase chain reaction would be useful when monitoring onchocerciasis prevalence by SST in onchocerciasis–loiasis coendemic areas.

Scaling-Down Mass Ivermectin Treatment for Onchocerciasis Elimination: Modeling the Impact of the Geographical Unit for Decision Making

Background

Due to spatial heterogeneity in onchocerciasis transmission, the duration of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) required for eliminating onchocerciasis will vary within endemic areas and the occurrence of transmission “hotspots” is inevitable. The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made will be a key driver in how rapidly national programs can scale down active intervention upon achieving the epidemiological targets for elimination.

Methods

We used 2 onchocerciasis models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) to predict the likelihood of achieving elimination by 2030 in Africa, accounting for variation in preintervention endemicity levels and histories of ivermectin treatment. We explore how decision making at contrasting geographical scales (community vs larger scale “project”) changes projections on populations still requiring MDA or transitioning to post-treatment surveillance.

Results

The total population considered grows from 118 million people in 2020 to 136 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at project level, the number of people requiring treatment declines from 69–118 million in 2020 to 59–118 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at community level, the numbers decline from 23–81 million in 2020 to 15–63 million in 2030. The lower estimates in these prediction intervals are based on ONCHOSIM, the upper limits on EPIONCHO-IBM.

Conclusions

The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made strongly determines how rapidly national onchocerciasis programs can scale down MDA programs. Stopping in portions of project areas or transmission zones would free up human and economic resources.

Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study

Background

Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent has been highly successful. Control efforts such as indoor residual spraying and active case detection will be scaled down or even halted over the coming years. We explored how after scale-down, potential recurrence of VL cases may be predicted based on population-based surveys of antibody or antigenemia prevalence.

Methods

Using a stochastic age-structured transmission model of VL, we predicted trends in case incidence and biomarker prevalence over time after scaling down control efforts when the target of 3 successive years without VL cases has been achieved. Next, we correlated biomarker prevalence with the occurrence of new VL cases within 10 years of scale-down.

Results

Occurrence of at least 1 new VL case in a population of 10 000 was highly correlated with the seroprevalence and antigenemia prevalence at the moment of scale-down, or 1 or 2 years afterward. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that biomarker prevalence in adults provided the most predictive information, and seroprevalence was a more informative predictor of new VL cases than antigenemia prevalence. Thresholds for biomarker prevalence to predict occurrence of new VL cases with high certainty were robust to variation in precontrol endemicity.

Conclusions

The risk of recrudescence of VL after scaling down control efforts can be monitored and mitigated by means of population-based surveys. Our findings highlight that rapid point-of-care diagnostic tools to assess (preferably) seroprevalence or (otherwise) antigenemia in the general population could be a key ingredient of sustainable VL control.

How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?

Background

Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity.

Methods

We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios.

Results

ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity.

Conclusion

We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA.

Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is the second most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, but also leads to serious skin conditions. Large-scale interventions are ongoing to control and eliminate the disease in Africa, yet the impact of these interventions on onchocercal morbidity is largely unknown. Here, we predict the trends in a wide spectrum of skin and eye disease due to onchocerciasis after up to 30 years of annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. To this end, we have developed a novel disease framework within the established ONCHOSIM model. We show that annual MDA will rapidly reduce the prevalence of acute clinical conditions, whereas the prevalence of chronic clinical manifestations will decline much more slowly. The new disease framework was validated with several data sources and reproduced morbidity trends adequately, making the framework applicable for more refined disease prevalence predictions by taking account of treatment history in Africa. Such predictions are essential for accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life years lost due to onchocerciasis by 2025.

Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé Foci, Mali

Background

Ivermectin-based onchocerciasis elimination, reported in 2009–2012, for Bakoye and Falémé, Mali, supported policy-shifting from morbidity control to elimination of transmission (EOT). These foci are coendemic with lymphatic filariasis (LF). In 2007–2016 mass ivermectin plus albendazole administration was implemented. We report Ov16 (onchocerciasis) and Wb123 (LF) seroprevalence after 24–25 years of treatment to determine if onchocerciasis EOT and LF elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) have been achieved.

Methods

The SD Bioline Onchocerciasis/LF Ig[immunoglobulin]G4 biplex rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was used in 2186 children aged 3–10 years in 13 villages (plus 2 hamlets) in Bakoye and in 2270 children in 15 villages (plus 1 hamlet) in Falémé. In Bakoye, all-age serosurveys were conducted in 3 historically hyperendemic villages (1867 individuals aged 3 -78 years).

Results

In Bakoye, IgG4 seropositivity was 0.27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = .13%–.60%) for both Ov16 and Wb123 antigens. In Falémé, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence was 0.04% (95% CI = .01%–.25%) and 0.09% (95% CI = .02%–.32%), respectively. Ov16-seropositive children were from historically meso/hyperendemic villages. Ov16 positivity was <2% in ≤14 year-olds, and 16% in ≥40 year-olds. Wb123 seropositivity was <2% in ≤39 year-olds, reaching 3% in ≥40 year-olds.

Conclusions

Notwithstanding uncertainty in the biplex RDT sensitivity, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence among children in Bakoye and Falémé is consistent with EOT (onchocerciasis) and EPHP (LF) since stopping treatment in 2016. The few Ov16-seropositive children should be skin-snip polymerase chain reaction tested and followed up.

Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.

METHODS

The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.

RESULTS

When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5-14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.

CONCLUSIONS

Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.

Stochastic challenges to interrupting helminth transmission

Predicting the effect of different programmes designed to control both the morbidity induced by helminth infections and parasite transmission is greatly facilitated by the use of mathematical models of transmission and control impact. In such models, it is essential to account for the many sources of uncertainty - natural, or otherwise - to ensure robustness in prediction and to accurately depict variation around an expected outcome. In this paper, we investigate how well the standard deterministic models match the predictions made using individual-based stochastic simulations. We also explore how well concepts which derive from deterministic models, such as 'breakpoints' in transmission, apply in the stochastic world. Employing an individual-based stochastic model framework we also investigate how transmission and control are affected by the migration of infected people into a defined community. To give our study focus we consider the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) by mass drug administration (MDA), though our methodology is readily applicable to the other helminth species such as the schistosome parasites and the filarial worms. We show it is possible to theoretically define a 'stochastic breakpoint' where much noise surrounds the expected deterministic breakpoint. We also discuss the concept of the 'interruption of transmission' independent of the 'breakpoint' concept where analyses of model behaviour illustrate the current limitations of deterministic models to account for the 'fade-out' or transmission extinction behaviour in simulations. Our analysis of migration confirms a relationship between the critical infected human migration rate scale (i.e., order of magnitude) per unit of time and the death rate of infective stages that are released into the free-living environment. This relationship is shown to determine the likelihood that control activities aim at chemotherapeutic treatment of the human host will eliminate transmission. The development of a new stochastic simulation code for STH in the form of a publicly-available open-source python package which includes features to incorporate many population stratifications, different control interventions including mass drug administration (with defined frequency, coverage levels and compliance patterns) and inter-village human migration is also described.

The World Health Organization 2030 goals for onchocerciasis: Insights and perspectives from mathematical modelling: NTD Modelling Consortium Onchocerciasis Group

The World Health Organization (WHO) has embarked on a consultation process to refine the 2030 goals for priority neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), onchocerciasis among them. Current goals include elimination of transmission (EOT) by 2020 in Latin America, Yemen and selected African countries. The new goals propose that, by 2030, EOT be verified in 10 countries; mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin be stopped in at least one focus in 34 countries; and that the proportion of the population no longer in need of MDA be equal or greater than 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% in at least 16, 14, 12, and 10 countries, respectively. The NTD Modelling Consortium onchocerciasis teams have used EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM to provide modelling insights into these goals. EOT appears feasible in low-moderate endemic areas with long-term MDA at high coverage (≥75%), but uncertain in areas of higher endemicity, poor coverage and adherence, and where MDA has not yet, or only recently, started. Countries will have different proportions of their endemic areas classified according to these categories, and this distribution of pre-intervention prevalence and MDA duration and programmatic success will determine the feasibility of achieving the proposed MDA cessation goals. Highly endemic areas would benefit from switching to biannual or quarterly MDA and implementing vector control where possible (determining optimal frequency and duration of anti-vectorial interventions requires more research). Areas without loiasis that have not yet initiated MDA should implement biannual (preferably with moxidectin) or quarterly MDA from the start. Areas with loiasis not previously treated would benefit from implementing test-and(not)-treat-based interventions, vector control, and anti- Wolbachia therapies, but their success will depend on the levels of screening and coverage achieved and sustained. The diagnostic performance of IgG4 Ov16 serology for assessing EOT is currently uncertain. Verification of EOT requires novel diagnostics at the individual- and population-levels.