Fire protection priorities in the oak forests of Iran with an emphasis on vertebrate habitat preservation

This study examines the impact of fire incidents on wildlife and habitats in the western oak forests of Iran (Zagros region). These forests are globally recognized for their exceptional biodiversity but are frequently threatened by wildfires. To achieve this, the study uses the space-time scan statistics permutation (STSSP) model to identify areas with a higher frequency of fires. The study also analyzes the effects of fires on the Zagros forests from 2000 to 2021 using remote-sensing MODIS data. Also, to understand the elements at risk of fire, burned areas were assessed based on the richness of vertebrate species, determined by the distribution of 88 vertebrate species. The results show that the annual fire rate in the Zagros forests is 76.2 (fire occurrences per year), calculated using the Poisson distribution. Findings show the highest fire rates are found in the northwest and a part of the south of the Zagros. The northwest of the Zagros also has the largest number of single fires and clusters, indicating a wide spatial distribution of fire in these regions. On the other side, it was unexpectedly found that these regions have the richest number of species and higher habitat value. The results demonstrate a significant correlation between the value of the habitat and the extent of burned areas (p < 0.05). The study also reveals that the greatest impact of fires is on small vertebrates. The overlap of frequent fire spots with the richest regions of Zagros oak forests in terms of vertebrate diversity emphasizes the need for strategic forest risk reduction planning, especially in these priority zones.

The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations

Within the uncertainties of involved astronomical and biological parameters, the Drake Equation typically predicts that there should be many exoplanets in our galaxy hosting active, communicative civilizations (ACCs). These optimistic calculations are however not supported by evidence, which is often referred to as the Fermi Paradox. Here, we elaborate on this long-standing enigma by showing the importance of planetary tectonic style for biological evolution. We summarize growing evidence that a prolonged transition from Mesoproterozoic active single lid tectonics (1.6 to 1.0 Ga) to modern plate tectonics occurred in the Neoproterozoic Era (1.0 to 0.541 Ga), which dramatically accelerated emergence and evolution of complex species. We further suggest that both continents and oceans are required for ACCs because early evolution of simple life must happen in water but late evolution of advanced life capable of creating technology must happen on land. We resolve the Fermi Paradox (1) by adding two additional terms to the Drake Equation: foc (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans) and fpt (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans that have had plate tectonics operating for at least 0.5 Ga); and (2) by demonstrating that the product of foc and fpt is very small (< 0.00003-0.002). We propose that the lack of evidence for ACCs reflects the scarcity of long-lived plate tectonics and/or continents and oceans on exoplanets with primitive life.

The Himalayan uplift and evolution of aquatic biodiversity across Asia: Snowtrout (Cyprininae: Schizothorax) as a test case

Global biodiversity hotspots are often remote, tectonically active areas undergoing climatic fluctuations, such as the Himalaya Mountains and neighboring Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). They provide biogeographic templates upon which endemic biodiversity can be mapped to infer diversification scenarios. Yet, this process can be somewhat opaque for the Himalaya, given substantial data gaps separating eastern and western regions. To help clarify, we evaluated phylogeographic and phylogenetic hypotheses for a widespread fish (Snowtrout: Cyprininae; Schizothorax) by sequencing 1,140 base pair of mtDNA cytochrome-b (cytb) from Central Himalaya samples (Nepal: N = 53; Bhutan: N = 19), augmented with 68 GenBank sequences (N = 60 Schizothorax/N = 8 outgroups). Genealogical relationships (N = 132) were analyzed via maximum likelihood (ML), Bayesian (BA), and haplotype network clustering, with clade divergence estimated via TimeTree. Snowtrout seemingly originated in Central Asia, dispersed across the QTP, then into Bhutan via southward-flowing tributaries of the east-flowing Yarlung-Tsangpo River (YLTR). Headwaters of five large Asian rivers provided dispersal corridors from Central into eastern/southeastern Asia. South of the Himalaya, the YLTR transitions into the Brahmaputra River, facilitating successive westward colonization of Himalayan drainages first in Bhutan, then Nepal, followed by far-western drainages subsequently captured by the (now) westward-flowing Indus River. Two distinct Bhutanese phylogenetic groups were recovered: Bhutan-1 (with three subclades) seemingly represents southward dispersal from the QTP; Bhutan-2 apparently illustrates northward colonization from the Lower Brahmaputra. The close phylogenetic/phylogeographic relationships between the Indus River (Pakistan) and western tributaries of the Upper Ganges (India/Nepal) potentially implicate an historic, now disjunct connection. Greater species-divergences occurred across rather than within-basins, suggesting vicariance as a driver. The Himalaya is a component of the Earth's largest glacial reservoir (i.e., the "third-pole") separate from the Arctic/Antarctic. Its unique aquatic biodiversity must be defined and conserved through broad, trans-national collaborations. Our study provides an initial baseline for this process.

Testing Geology with Biology: Plate Tectonics and the Diversification of Microhylid Frogs in the Papuan Region

Studies of the Papuan region have provided fundamental insights into the evolutionary processes generating its exceptional biodiversity, but the influence of geological processes merits further study. Lying at the junction of five tectonic plates, this region has experienced a turbulent geological history that has not only produced towering mountains allowing elevational specialization and island archipelagos with varying degrees of isolation promoting vicariance, but also active margins where land masses have collided and been subsequently rifted apart creating a mosaic of intermixed terranes with vastly different geological histories. Asterophryine frogs are a hyperdiverse clade representing half the world's microhylid diversity (over 360 species) centered on New Guinea and its satellite islands. We show that vicariance facilitated by geological history explains this far and wide distribution of a clade that should have poor dispersal abilities. We recovered a mainland tectonic unit, the East Papua Composite Terrane (EPCT), as the center of origin for Asterophryinae and no fewer than 71 instances of what appear to be long-distance dispersal events, 29 of which are between mainland regions, with 42 from the mainland to the islands, some presently as far as 200 km away from source populations over open ocean. Furthermore, we find strong support for a "Slow and Steady" hypothesis for the formation of the northern margin of New Guinea by many separate accretion events during the Miocene, over other major geological alternatives, consistent with the 20 M year age of the clade and arrival via the EPCT. In addition, the historical biogeography of our frogs strongly supports an affiliation of the Louisiade Archipelago and Woodlark Island with the Owen Stanley Range on the EPCT, and the recent proximity of the large New Britain Island. Our results show that Asterophryinae did not have to repeatedly and independently disperse across large ocean barriers to the offshore islands, against the predictions of island biogeography theory, but that the current distribution can be explained through vicariance and short-distance oceanic dispersal as historical land connections disappeared and islands slowly became separated from each other. We show that islands have a life history, changing in distance from other land masses, with consequent opportunities for dispersal, isolation, and cladogenesis of their biotas. More broadly, we can begin to see how the geological history of the Papuan region can result in the rapid accumulation and staggering number of extant species.

Disentangling the drivers of continental mammalian endemism

Endemic species and species with small ranges are ecologically and evolutionarily distinct and are vulnerable to extinction. Determining which abiotic and biotic factors structure patterns of endemism on continents can advance our understanding of global biogeographic processes, but spatial patterns of mammalian endemism have not yet been effectively predicted and reconstructed. Using novel null model techniques, we reconstruct trends in mammalian endemism and describe the isolated and combined effects of physiographic, ecological, and evolutionary factors on endemism. We calculated weighted endemism for global continental ecoregions and compared the spatial distribution of endemism to niche-based, geographic null models of endemism. These null models distribute species randomly across continents, simulating their range sizes from their degree of climatic specialization. They isolate the effects of physiography (topography and climate) and species richness on endemism. We then ran linear and structural models to determine how topography and historical climate stability influence endemism. The highest rates of mammalian endemism were found in topographically rough, climatically stable ecoregions with many species. The null model that isolated physiography did not closely approximate the observed distribution of endemism (r²  = .09), whereas the null model that incorporated both physiography and species richness did (r²  = .59). The linear models demonstrate that topography and climatic stability both influenced endemism values, but that average climatic niche breadth was not highly correlated with endemism. Climate stability and topography both influence weighted endemism in mammals, but the spatial distribution of mammalian endemism is driven by a combination of physiography and species richness. Despite its relationship to individual range size, average climate niche breadth has only a weak influence on endemism. The results highlight the importance of historical biogeographic processes (e.g. centers of speciation) and geography in driving endemism patterns, and disentangle the mechanisms structuring species ranges worldwide.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Biotic and Abiotic Controls on the Phanerozoic History of Marine Animal Biodiversity

During the past 541 million years, marine animals underwent three intervals of diversification (early Cambrian, Ordovician, Cretaceous–Cenozoic) separated by nondirectional fluctuation, suggesting diversity-dependent dynamics with the equilibrium diversity shifting through time. Changes in factors such as shallow-marine habitat area and climate appear to have modulated the nondirectional fluctuations. Directional increases in diversity are best explained by evolutionary innovations in marine animals and primary producers coupled with stepwise increases in the availability of food and oxygen. Increasing intensity of biotic interactions such as predation and disturbance may have led to positive feedbacks on diversification as ecosystems became more complex. Important areas for further research include improving the geographic coverage and temporal resolution of paleontological data sets, as well as deepening our understanding of Earth system evolution and the physiological and ecological traits that modulated organismal responses to environmental change.

gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modeling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatiotemporally dynamic landscapes. Modeled processes can include species' abiotic tolerances, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation, and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as α, β, and γ diversity, species ranges, ecological traits, and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As an illustration, we examine alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earth's Cenozoic era. Our exploratory simulations simultaneously produce multiple realistic biodiversity patterns, such as the LDG, current species richness, and range size frequencies, as well as phylogenetic metrics. The model engine is open source and available as an R package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a key toward a numeric, interdisciplinary, and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Dated phylogeny and ancestral range estimation of sand scorpions (Buthidae: Buthacus) reveal Early Miocene divergence across land bridges connecting Africa and Asia

Sand scorpions of the genus Buthacus Birula, 1908 (Buthidae C.L. Koch, 1837) are widespread in the sandy deserts of the Palearctic region, occurring from the Atlantic coast of West Africa across the Sahara, and throughout the Middle East to Central Asia. The limits of Buthacus, its two species groups, and many of its species remain unclear, and in need of revision using modern systematic methods. The study presented here set out to investigate the phylogeny and biogeography of the Buthacus species occurring in the Levant, last studied in 1980. A phylogenetic analysis was performed on 104 terminals, including six species collected from more than thirty localities in Israel and other countries in the region. Three mitochondrial and two nuclear gene loci were sequenced for a total of 2,218 aligned base-pairs. Morphological datasets comprising 22 qualitative and 48 quantitative morphological characters were compiled. Molecular and morphological datasets were analyzed separately and simultaneously with Bayesian Inference, Maximum Likelihood, and parsimony. Divergence time and ancestral range estimation analyses were performed, to understand dispersal and diversification. The results support a revised classification of Levantine Buthacus, and invalidate the traditional species groups of Buthacus, instead recovering two geographically-delimited clades, an African clade and an Asian clade, approximately separated by the Jordan Valley (the Jordan Rift Valley or Syro-African Depression), the northernmost part of the Great Rift Valley. The divergence between these clades occurred in the Early Miocene (ca. 19 Ma) in the Levant, coinciding temporally with the existence of two land bridges, which allowed faunal exchange between Africa and Asia.

Spatial phylogenetics of butterflies in relation to environmental drivers and angiosperm diversity across North America

Broad-scale, quantitative assessments of insect biodiversity and the factors shaping it remain particularly poorly explored. Here we undertook a spatial phylogenetic analysis of North American butterflies to test whether climate stability and temperature gradients have shaped their diversity and endemism. We also performed the first quantitative comparisons of spatial phylogenetic patterns between butterflies and flowering plants. We expected concordance between the two groups based on shared historical environmental drivers and presumed strong butterfly-host plant specializations. We instead found that biodiversity patterns in butterflies are strikingly different from flowering plants, especially warm deserts. In particular, butterflies show different patterns of phylogenetic clustering compared with flowering plants, suggesting differences in habitat conservation between the two groups. These results suggest that shared biogeographic histories and trophic associations do not necessarily assure similar diversity outcomes. The work has applied value in conservation planning, documenting warm deserts as a North American butterfly biodiversity hotspot.

Reptile species richness associated to ecological and historical variables in Iran

Spatial gradients of species richness can be shaped by the interplay between historical and ecological factors. They might interact in particularly complex ways in heterogeneous mountainous landscapes with strong climatic and geological contrasts. We mapped the distribution of 171 lizard species to investigate species richness patterns for all species (171), diurnal species (101), and nocturnal species (70) separately. We related species richness with the historical (past climate change, mountain uplifting) and ecological variables (climate, topography and vegetation). We found that assemblages in the Western Zagros Mountains, north eastern and north western parts of Central Iranian Plateau have the highest number of lizard species. Among the investigated variables, annual mean temperature explained the largest variance for all species (10%) and nocturnal species (31%). For diurnal species, temperature change velocity shows strongest explained variance in observed richness pattern (26%). Together, our results reveal that areas with annual temperature of 15–20 °C, which receive 400–600 mm precipitation and experienced moderate level of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have highest number of species. Documented patterns of our study provide a baseline for understanding the potential effect of ongoing climate change on lizard diversity in Iran.

Systematics, biogeography and evolution of the Saharo-Arabian naked-toed geckos genus Tropiocolotes

Plate tectonics constitute one of the main mechanisms of biological diversification on Earth, often being associated with cladogenetic events at different phylogenetic levels, as well as with exchange of faunas and floras across previously isolated biogeographic regions. North Africa and Arabia share a complex geological history that dates back to the break-up of the Arabian plate from the African plate ~30-25 Mya, followed by various geological events, such as the formation of the Red Sea or the connection between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates. Species with Saharo-Arabian distributions have shown a close association between their evolutionary history and these geological events. In this study, we investigate the systematics, biogeography and evolution of the genus Tropiocolotes, a group of small ground-dwelling geckos, comprised by 12 species distributed from the Atlantic coast of North Africa to southwestern Iran. Species delimitation analyses uncovered the existence of high levels of undescribed diversity, with forms here considered at the species level including Tropiocolotes tripolitanus (Mauritania and southern Morocco), T. nattereri (southern Israel) and T. scorteccii (Yemen and Oman). Phylogenetic and biogeographic analyses recovered two main clades, an exclusively African clade and a Saharo-Arabian clade, that split ~25 Mya following the vicariant event mediated by the separation of the Arabian and African plates. The complex geological activity around the Red Sea is associated with the diversification within the Saharo-Arabian clade, including the colonization of North Africa from a second Tropiocolotes group. Results also provide new insights into the geographic distribution of Tropiocolotes nubicus, previously considered as exclusively associated to the Nile River valley, extending its known distribution further west, up to the Central Mountains of the Sahara. Accordingly, the Nile River seems to act as a major biogeographic barrier, separating Tropiocolotes nubicus and T. steudneri in their western and eastern margins, respectively.

Global determinants of freshwater and marine fish genetic diversity

Genetic diversity is estimated to be declining faster than species diversity under escalating threats, but its spatial distribution remains poorly documented at the global scale. Theory predicts that similar processes should foster congruent spatial patterns of genetic and species diversity, but empirical studies are scarce. Using a mined database of 50,588 georeferenced mitochondrial DNA barcode sequences (COI) for 3,815 marine and 1,611 freshwater fish species respectively, we examined the correlation between genetic diversity and species diversity and their global distributions in relation to climate and geography. Genetic diversity showed a clear spatial organisation, but a weak association with species diversity for both marine and freshwater species. We found a predominantly positive relationship between genetic diversity and sea surface temperature for marine species. Genetic diversity of freshwater species varied primarily across the regional basins and was negatively correlated with average river slope. The detection of genetic diversity patterns suggests that conservation measures should consider mismatching spatial signals across multiple facets of biodiversity.

Biogeographic patterns of genetic diversity are poorly documented, especially for fish species. Here the authors show that (mitochondrial) genetic diversity has global spatial organization patterns with different environmental drivers for marine and freshwater fishes, where genetic diversity is only partly congruent with species richness.

Ecological constraints coupled with deep-time habitat dynamics predict the latitudinal diversity gradient in reef fishes

We develop a spatially explicit model of diversification based on palaeohabitat to explore the predictions of four major hypotheses potentially explaining the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), namely, the 'time-area', 'tropical niche conservatism', 'ecological limits' and 'evolutionary speed' hypotheses. We compare simulation outputs to observed diversity gradients in the global reef fish fauna. Our simulations show that these hypotheses are non-mutually exclusive and that their relative influence depends on the time scale considered. Simulations suggest that reef habitat dynamics produced the LDG during deep geological time, while ecological constraints shaped the modern LDG, with a strong influence of the reduction in the latitudinal extent of tropical reefs during the Neogene. Overall, this study illustrates how mechanistic models in ecology and evolution can provide a temporal and spatial understanding of the role of speciation, extinction and dispersal in generating biodiversity patterns.

The Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: Novel Understanding through Mechanistic Eco-evolutionary Models

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely studied patterns in ecology, yet no consensus has been reached about its underlying causes. We argue that the reasons for this are the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, the failure to mechanistically link interacting ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and the fact that empirical patterns are often consistent with multiple explanations. To address this issue, we synthesize current LDG hypotheses, uncovering their eco-evolutionary mechanisms, hidden assumptions, and commonalities. Furthermore, we propose mechanistic eco-evolutionary modeling and an inferential approach that makes use of geographic, phylogenetic, and trait-based patterns to assess the relative importance of different processes for generating the LDG.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.