POSSUM scoring for patients with fractured neck of femur † †An abstract of part of the study was presented at the Anaesthetic Research Society meeting, Aberdeen, April 2004 and published in British Journal of Anaesthesia 2004; 93: 161

Validation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index for the prediction of 30-day and 1-year mortality among patients who underwent hip fracture surgery

INTRODUCTION

The aim of our study was to validate the original Charlson Comorbidity Index (1987) (CCI) and adjusted CCI (2011) as a prediction model for 30-day and 1-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. The secondary aim of this study was to verify each variable of the CCI as a factor associated with 30-day and 1-year mortality.

METHODS

A prospective database of two-level II trauma teaching hospitals in the Netherlands was used. The original CCI from 1987 and the adjusted CCI were calculated based on medical history. To validate the original CCI and the adjusted CCI, the CCI was plotted against the observed 30-day and 1-year mortality, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 3523 patients were included in this cohort study. The mean of the original CCI in this cohort was 5.1 (SD ± 2.0) and 4.6 (SD ± 1.9) for the adjusted CCI. The AUCs of the prediction models were 0.674 and 0.696 for 30-day mortality for the original and adjusted CCIs, respectively. The AUCs for 1-year mortality were 0.705 and 0.717 for the original and adjusted CCIs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher original and adjusted CCI is associated with a higher mortality rate. The AUC was relatively low for 30-day and 1-year mortality for both the original and adjusted CCIs compared to other prediction models for hip fracture patients in our cohort. The CCI is not recommended for the prediction of 30-day and 1-year mortality in hip fracture patients.

Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Mortality After Hip Fracture with Machine Learning Techniques

In order to estimate the likelihood of 1, 3, 6 and 12 month mortality in patients with hip fractures, we applied a variety of machine learning methods using readily available, preoperative data. We used prospectively collected data from a single university hospital in Copenhagen, Denmark for consecutive patients with hip fractures, aged 60 years and older, treated between September 2008 to September 2010 (n = 1186). Preoperative biochemical and anamnestic data were used as predictors and outcome was survival at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the fracture. After feature selection for each timepoint a stratified split was done (70/30) before training and validating Random Forest models, extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Generalized Linear Models. We evaluated and compared each model using receiver operator characteristic (ROC), calibration slope and intercept, Spiegelhalter's z- test and Decision Curve Analysis. Using combinations of between 10 and 13 anamnestic and biochemical parameters we were able to successfully estimate the likelihood of mortality with an area under the curve on ROC curves of 0.79, 0.80, 0.79 and 0.81 for 1, 3, 6 and 12 month, respectively. The XGB was the overall best calibrated and most promising model. The XGB model most successfully estimated the likelihood of mortality postoperatively. An easy-to-use model could be helpful in perioperative decisions concerning level of care, focused research and information to patients. External validation is necessary before widespread use and is currently underway, an online tool has been developed for educational/experimental purposes ( https://hipfx.shinyapps.io/hipfx/ ).

O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality in older patients after hip fracture surgery: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The POSSUM model has been widely used to predict morbidity and mortality after general surgery. Modified versions known as O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM have been used extensively in orthopedic surgery, but their accuracy is unclear. This systematic review evaluated the predictive value of these models in older patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

This study was performed and reported based on the "Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses" guidelines. PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Web of Science were comprehensively searched for relevant studies, whose methodological quality was evaluated according to the "Methodological index for non-randomized studies" scale. Revman 5 was used to calculate weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 10 studies, of which nine (2549 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity, nine (3649 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality, and four (1794 patients) assessed the ability of P-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality. The corresponding weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality were 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.00), 0.68 (95% CI 0.49-0.95), and 0.61 (95% CI 0.16-2.38).

CONCLUSIONS

While O-POSSUM shows reasonable accuracy in predicting postoperative morbidity in older patients with hip fractures, both P-POSSUM and O-POSSUM substantially overestimate postoperative mortality. The POSSUM model should be optimized further for this patient population.

Risk scoring models for patients with proximal femur fractures: Qualitative systematic review assessing 30-day mortality and ease of use

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are a common orthopaedic injury affecting a particularly frail and vulnerable patient cohort. They are at risk of many complications, including prolonged length of stay and mortality. Efforts to identify those at high risk may be beneficial. Over 25 risk prediction models are published for patients with hip fractures.

AIM

The primary aim of this study was to assess the performance of predictor scores in predicting 30-day mortality. The secondary aim was to assess the ease of use of these systems.

METHODS

A qualitative systematic review was performed. A search was conducted on online databases, including PubMed, CINAHL, Clinical Trials.gov, Cochrane, DARE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science.. The terms fragility hip fractures and risk prediction models were utilised while performing the search. These were then expanded using Boolean operators and similar terms. Search results were imported to Covidence. Primary observational studies using one or more hip fracture mortality prediction models and 30-day mortality as an outcome were included. Systematic reviews and studies on specific patient groups defined other medical conditions (e.g. COVID positive or dialysis patients) were excluded.

RESULTS

3,101 studies were screened following duplicate removal. 34 papers were included in the review, in which 23 scoring systems were reported. Six of these were pre-operative and reported in multiple studies. Most demonstrated appropriate fit and fair discrimination. Five of the six pre-operative scoring systems examined, displayed appropriate ease of use, allowing risk calculation at the time of admission.

CONCLUSION

Nottingham Hip Fracture Score remains the most extensive reported scoring system and performs fair overall with AUROCs of 0.64-0.80 and good fit in calibration across all studies. However, new systems utilise many similar predictors. There is a need for the standardisation of publications on scoring systems to allow further systematic review and meta-analyses.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram of 1-year mortality in the elderly with hip fracture: a study of the MIMIC-III database

OBJECTIVE

Hip fracture is a prevalent condition with a significant death rate among the elderly. We sought to develop a nomogram-based survival prediction model for older patients with hip fracture.

DESIGN

A retrospective case-control study.

SETTING

The data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III V.1.4).

PARTICIPANTS

The clinical features of elderly patients with hip fracture, including basic information, comorbidities, severity score, laboratory tests and therapy, were filtered out based on the MIMIC-III V.1.4.

METHODS AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All patients included in the study were from critical care and randomly divided into training and validation sets (7:3). On the basis of retrieved data, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent predictive variables of 1-year mortality, and then constructed a risk prediction nomogram. The predictive values of the nomogram model were evaluated by the concordance indexes (C-indexes), receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

A total of 341 elderly patients with hip fracture were included in this study; 121 cases died within 1 year. After LASSO regression and multiple logistic regression analysis, a novel nomogram contained the predictive variables of age, weight, the proportion of lymphocyte count, liver disease, malignant tumour and congestive heart failure. The constructed model proved satisfactory discrimination with C-indexes of 0.738 (95% CI 0.674 to 0.802) in the training set and 0.713 (95% CI 0.608 to 0.819) in the validation set. The calibration curve shows a good degree of fitting between the predicted and observed probabilities and the DCA confirms the model's clinical practicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prediction model provides personalised predictions for 1-year mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures. Compared with other hip fracture models, our nomogram is particularly suitable for predicting long-term mortality in critical patients.

Influence of time to surgery on clinical outcomes in elderly hip fracture patients : an assessment of surgical postponement due to non-medical reasons

AIMS

Factors associated with high mortality rates in geriatric hip fracture patients are frequently unmodifiable. Time to surgery, however, might be a modifiable factor of interest to optimize clinical outcomes after hip fracture surgery. This study aims to determine the influence of postponement of surgery due to non-medical reasons on clinical outcomes in acute hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

This observational cohort study enrolled consecutively admitted patients with a proximal femoral fracture, for which surgery was performed between 1 January 2018 and 11 January 2021 in two level II trauma teaching hospitals. Patients with medical indications to postpone surgery were excluded. A total of 1,803 patients were included, of whom 1,428 had surgery < 24 hours and 375 had surgery ≥ 24 hours after admission.

RESULTS

Prolonged total length of stay was found when surgery was performed ≥ 24 hours (median 6 days (interquartile range (IQR) 4 to 9) vs 7 days (IQR 5 to 10); p = 0.001) after admission. No differences in postoperative length of hospital stay nor in 30-day mortality rates were found. In subgroup analysis for time frames of 12 hours each, pressure sores and urinary tract infections were diagnosed more frequently when time to surgery increased.

CONCLUSION

Longer time to surgery due to non-medical reasons was associated with a higher incidence of postoperative pressure sores and urinary tract infections when time to surgery was more than 48 hours after admission. No association was found between time to surgery and 30-day mortality rates or postoperative length of hospital stay.Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(12):1369-1378.

Application of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the risk assessment of elderly hip fracture surgery: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Since Mohamed et al. analyzed 2326 orthopedic cases in 2002 and believed that the POSSUM formula can be directly used to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in orthopedic patients, applications of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the hip fracture surgery have been mostly reported in the field of orthopedics, but there are still some inconsistencies in the related reports.

Methods

The electronic library was searched for all literature that met the purpose from its inception to 2021. Relative risk (RR) was selected to evaluate whether the model could be used to assess the risk of surgery in patients with elderly hip fractures. Finally, sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were performed.

Results

Thirteen studies were finally included, including 9 retrospective and 4 prospective studies.The morbidity analysis includes 11 studies, and the result was RR = 1.07 (95% CI 0.93–1.24), The mortality analysis includes 11 studies on POSSUM and 5 studies on P-POSSUM. The results of mortality by POSSUM and by P-POSSUM were RR = 1.93 (95% CI 1.21–3.08) and RR = 1.15 (95% CI 0.89–1.50), respectively. POSSUM had more accuracy to predict mortality for sample < 200 subgroup(RR = 2.45; 95% CI 0.71–8.42) than sample > 200 subgroup(RR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.06–2.40), and in the subgroup of hip fractures that did not distinguish between specific fracture types(RR = 1.69, 95% CI 0.87–3.32) than intertrochanteric neck fracture subgroup(RR = 5.04, 95% CI 1.07–23.75) and femoral femoral fracture subgroup(RR = 1.43,95% CI 1.10–1.84).

Conclusion

POSSUM can be used to predict morbidity in elderly hip fractures. The P-POSSUM was more accurate in predicting mortality in elderly hip fracture patients compared to the POSSUM, whose predictive value for mortality was influenced by the sample size and type of fracture studied. In addition, we believe that appropriate improvements to the POSSUM system are needed to address the characteristics of orthopedic surgery.

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) in Patients with Hip Fracture: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Netherlands

Introduction

The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to predict 30-day mortality for patients with hip fracture. This study aimed to validate the NHFS in a cohort with sufficient statistical power.

Methods

Data were extracted from a prospective hip-fracture database (FAMMI). Patients were included between January 1, 2018 and January 11, 2021. All consecutively admitted patients ≥18 years of age with a hip fracture (ie, femoral neck fracture, intertrochanteric fracture, and subtrochanteric fracture) were included. Mann–Whitney’s U values were calculated to find potential miscalibration of the NHFS formula. Discrimination evaluation was performed using the concordance statistic as an equivalent to area under the receiver-operating curve.

Results

In total, 2,458 patients were included. Mean age was 80±12 years, and 66% were women (n=1,631). Median NHFS was 5 (4–6) and overall 30-day mortality 7.9% (n=195). Overall goodness of fit was tested with Pearson’s ?² (11.8, df 10; P=0.297). No statistically significant signs of miscalibration were found (Mann–Whitney U, P=0.08). Discrimination was tested with area under the receiver- operating curve, which was 72.1% (95% CI 68.7%–75.4%). However, observed 30-day mortality in our population of hip-fracture patients was slightly higher than the NHFS prediction.

Conclusion

The NHFS seemed to predict 30-day mortality with reasonable accuracy for patients with a hip fracture in a population within the Netherlands.

Predictive Values of Preoperative Characteristics for 30-Day Mortality in Traumatic Hip Fracture Patients

Hip fracture patients have a high risk of mortality after surgery, with 30-day postoperative rates as high as 10%. This study aimed to explore the predictive ability of preoperative characteristics in traumatic hip fracture patients as they relate to 30-day postoperative mortality using readily available variables in clinical practice. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 2008 and 2017 were included in the analysis. Associations between the possible predictors and 30-day mortality was performed using a multivariate logistic regression (LR) model; the bidirectional stepwise method was used for variable selection. An LR model and convolutional neural network (CNN) were then fitted for prediction. The relative importance of individual predictors was evaluated using the permutation importance and Gini importance. A total of 134,915 traumatic hip fracture patients were included in the study. The CNN and LR models displayed an acceptable predictive ability for predicting 30-day postoperative mortality using a test dataset, displaying an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of as high as 0.76. The variables with the highest importance in prediction were age, sex, hypertension, dementia, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Both the CNN and LR models achieved an acceptable performance in identifying patients at risk of mortality 30 days after hip fracture surgery. The most important variables for prediction, based on the variables used in the current study are age, hypertension, dementia, sex, ASA classification, and RCRI.

Predicting 30-Day and 180-Day Mortality in Elderly Proximal Hip Fracture Patients: Evaluation of 4 Risk Prediction Scores at a Level I Trauma Center

This study evaluated the use of risk prediction models in estimating short- and mid-term mortality following proximal hip fracture in an elderly Austrian population. Data from 1101 patients who sustained a proximal hip fracture were retrospectively analyzed and applied to four models of interest: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Charlson Comorbidity Index, Portsmouth-POSSUM and the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP^®) Risk Score. The performance of these models according to the risk prediction of short- and mid-term mortality was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The median age of participants was 83 years, and 69% were women. Six point one percent of patients were deceased by 30 days and 15.2% by 180 days postoperatively. There was no significant difference between the models; the ACS-NSQIP had the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for within 30-day and 180-day mortality. Age, male gender, and hemoglobin (Hb) levels at admission <12.0 g/dL were identified as significant risk factors associated with a shorter time to death at 30 and 180 days postoperative (p < 0.001). Among the four scores, the ACS-NSQIP score could be best-suited clinically and showed the highest discriminative performance, although it was not specifically designed for the hip fracture population.

Prospective cohort protocol examining the perioperative indicators for complications and early mortality following hip fracture surgery in the frail patient

INTRODUCTION

The primary aim is to validate earlier suggested risk factors and to find new associated risk factors for (30-day) mortality after a hip fracture in the frail population. The secondary aim is to determine the factors associated with perioperative complications. At last we want to develop and validate a more specific 30-day mortality prediction tool compared with the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. The 30-day mortality prediction can help inform surgical risk and guide shared decision-making among patients, family and physicians.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is designed as a prospective multicentre cohort study within the area of Rotterdam, the Netherlands starting from January 2018. All patients over 65 years of age, with an acute proximal hip fracture, are included. Treatment of patients will be by standard practice of care using the latest national and international guidelines. Inclusion will be continued at least until January 2021 and including at least 2500 patients. In this large cohort we hope to have sufficient strength and quality to identify risk factors of 30-day mortality and to compare them to known risk factors in literature. Moreover, we plan to develop and validate a 30-day mortality prediction tool, which identifies patients with a high probability of 30-day mortality.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for this protocol was given by the Ethics Committee of the Maasstad Hospital (TWOR). Patient data are stored anonymously using the Castor data management system. No external funding is used for this study. Results will be published in peer-reviewed publications and at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL8313.

POSSUM and P-POSSUM Scoring in Hip Fracture Mortalities

INTRODUCTION

Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) are general surgical tools used to efficiently assess mortality and morbidity risk. Data suggest that these tools can be used in hip fracture patients to predict morbidity and mortality; however, it is unclear what score indicates a significant risk on a case-by-case basis. We examined the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in a group of hip fracture mortalities in order to assess their accuracy in identification of similar high-risk patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all consecutive mortalities in hip fracture patients at a single tertiary care center over 2 years was performed. Patient medical records were examined for baseline demographics, fracture characteristics, surgical interventions, and cause of death. Twelve physiological and 6 operative variables were used to retrospectively calculate POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores at the time of injury.

RESULTS

Forty-seven hip fracture mortalities were reviewed. Median patient age was 88 years (range: 56-99). Overall, 68.1% (32) underwent surgical intervention. Mean predicted POSSUM morbidity and mortality rates were 73.9% (28%-99%) and 31.1% (5%-83%), respectively. The mean predicted P-POSSUM mortality rate was 26.4% (1%-91%) and 53.2% (25) had a P-POSSUM predicted mortality of >20%. Subgroup analysis demonstrated poor agreement between predicted mortality and observed mortality rate for POSSUM in operative (χ2 = 127.5, P < .00001) and nonoperative cohorts (χ2 = 14.6, P < .00001), in addition to P-POSSUM operative (χ2 = 101.9, P < .00001) and nonoperative (χ2 = 11.9, P < .00001) scoring.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

Hip fracture patients are at significant risk of both morbidity and mortality. A reliable, replicable, and accurate tool to represent the expected risk of such complications could help facilitate clinical decision-making to determine the optimal level of care. Screening tools such as POSSUM and P-POSSUM have limitations in accurately identifying high-risk hip fracture patients.

Hip fracture mortality: Predictive models

The preoperative estimation of the risk of mortality after a hip fracture is very useful to plan time of surgery and perioperative care, inform patients and families about the prognosis and allows comparisons between different units. Different models have been developed to stratify mortality risk, but they show heterogeneity in terms of type of population and variables included, monitoring the time and statistical methods used, which makes it difficult to establish comparisons between them. The vast majority of them are awaiting external validation in populations different from those in which they were originally proposed. So far, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) and the Orthopaedic Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (O-POSSUM) are the most commonly used models. The NHFS is simpler and faster to apply, and by not including intraoperative variables can be used at the time of admission.

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality in patients with an intracapsular hip fracture

BACKGROUND

The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to predict 30-day mortality following a fracture of the hip. While the NHFS has been validated in three hip fracture populations within Great Britain, these studies make no distinction between the type of fracture and surgery. Literature 'however' shows an increased risk for mortality after a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture. To verify whether the mortality after an intra-capsular hip fracture is higher compared to the predicted mortality score according to the NHFS, a validation of the NHFS in patients with a hemi-arthroplasty after an intra-capsular hip fracture was performed.

METHODS

The NHFS was calculated for consecutive patients presenting with an intra-capsular fracture of the hip in two level II trauma teaching hospitals between 1 January 2011 and 1 May 2016. The observed 30-day mortality was compared with that predicted by the NHFS using several validation statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 901 patients were included in the present study. Mean age in the patients was 83 years (SD 8) and 623 (68%) of the patients were female. Almost 60% of the patients had an ASA-score (American Society of Anaesthesiologists [ASA]) of≥3 and overall 30-day mortality was 9.5% (n=86). The median NHFS was 5, and there was no significant change in median NHFS over the past 5 years. The mortality rate in the studied population of hemi-arthroplasty patients was significantly higher than mortality rates predicted by the NHFS (p=0.022, Pearson's Chi-squared test).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that for a patient with a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture, there could be an underestimation for the 30-day mortality rate following the NHFS prediction model.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Early Postoperative Morbidity After Chronic Subdural Hematoma: Predictive Usefulness of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Grade in a Prospective Cohort

BACKGROUND

Although chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is generally benign, long-term survival (LTS) after CSDH is poor in a significant subgroup. This dichotomy has been compared to fractured neck of femur. However, although early postoperative mortality (within 30 days of CSDH) is well recorded with CSDH and similar to fractured neck of femur (4%-8%), scant accurate data exist regarding early postoperative morbidity (POMB). POMB, which prolongs length of stay (LOS) after major nonneurosurgery, is associated with decreased LTS. One recent CSDH study suggested a POMB standard of 10% i.e., notably less than with fractured neck of femur (45%).

METHODS

POMB was recorded in a novel prospective single-center cohort after CSDH. The POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity), American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) score, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade were assessed as tools for potentially predicting POMB. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated.

RESULTS

Early postoperative mortality (within 30 days of CSDH) occurred in 3 of 114 patients (3%). Seventy-one POMB events occurred in 54 of 114 patients (47%), with 27 of 54 (50%) having a Clavien-Dindo grade ≥2. Most POMB was neurologic (n = 47/71, 66%). Age (P = 0.01), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (P = 0.001), Markwalder grade (P = 0.01), hypertension (P = 0.047), and/or ≥1 preexistent comorbidity (P = 0.041) were predictive. LOS (P = 0.01) and discharge modified Rankin Scale score (P < 0.001) were significantly associated. Predicted and observed POMB with POSSUM were significantly disparate (χ² = 15.23; P = 0.001): POSSUM area under ROC (AUROC = 0.611) was also nondiscriminatory. ACS-NSQIP (χ² = 18.51; P < 0.001; AUROC = 0.629) and ASA grades (P = 0.25) were also nonpredictive.

CONCLUSIONS

POMB was frequently disabling, mostly neurologic, and as frequent and diverse as with fractured neck of femur. POMB was significantly correlated with LOS and discharge modified Rankin Scale score. Surprisingly, POSSUM, ACS-NSQIP, and ASA grades were not predictive and would not aid consent. Simple parameters (age, Glasgow Coma Scale, Markwalder grade, hypertension, and/or ≥1 other comorbidity) were instead predictive. Longitudinal follow-up will determine whether POMB affects LTS. CSDH, like fractured neck of femur, is distinct.

Validity of Nottingham Hip Fracture Score in Different Health Systems and a New Modified Version Validated to the Greek Population

Background

The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) is validated as a predictive mortality tool in patients with hip fracture. However, it has not been modified or validated widely other than in the UK NHS health systems.

Material/Methods

We assessed the predictive capability of the NHFS for 30-day mortality after surgery for hip fracture in the Greek population and then compared the original model to a modified one. We applied the NHFS to the Greek population and created a modified model of the NHFS by including the New Mobility Score (NMS) (Parker and Palmer, 1993) to the evaluated parameters and excluding the parameter of institution.

We ran a prospective study over a period of 3 years in our institution, collecting full data from 349 patients. All data were analyzed using SPSS, version 20.

Results

From all 349 patients, with a mean age of 80.82 years, only 85 (24.4%) were men. All patients were followed up for at least 30 days and the NHFS and modified NHFS prediction were compared with the mortality rate of patients. The area under the ROC curve for both models suggested acceptable accuracy (original NHFS 0.83, modified NHFS 0.84). Calibration was acceptable for both models (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.31 and 0.11, respectively).

Conclusions

Both the original and the modified NHFS were significant predictors of 30-day mortality. A higher-power study might be able to show superiority of the modified one for the Greek population in the future.

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden - A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.

METHODS

This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out-of-hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC).

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P-POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30-day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60-0.67.

CONCLUSION

The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.

O-POSSUM score predicts morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to evaluate the O-POSSUM score capacity to predict the morbidity and mortality of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of patients older than 65years old, operated on for hip fractures between January 2012 and December 2013. Of 229 patients, the mean age was 82.3years and 170 were women. We collected comorbidities, type of surgery, and expected morbidity and mortality O-POSSUM values.

RESULTS

After a minimum follow up of one year, 38 deaths were reported and 77 patients had complications. The expected mortality according to the O-POSSUM was 35 patients and expected morbidity 132.

CONCLUSION

By comparing the observed results with those predicted, the O-POSSUM scale is reliable in predicting mortality and overestimates morbidity.

Modernising Hip Fracture Anaesthesia

Hip fracture carries a 30-day mortality of around 8% in the United Kingdom. This figure has remained relatively unchanged despite modern developments in anaesthetic technique. These range from improvements in perioperative analgesia and mortality scoring systems, changes to intra-operative anaesthetic technique and strategies to reduce the requirement for blood transfusion. In this article, we review the current literature on the perioperative management of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery including some of the current controversies.

Patient survival and surgical re-intervention predictors for intracapsular hip fractures

BACKGROUND

Choosing between total hip replacement (THR) and partial hip replacement (PHR) for patients with intracapsular hip fractures is often based on subjective factors. Predicting the survival of these patients and risk of surgical re-intervention is essential to select the most adequate implant.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on mortality of patients over 70 years with intracapsular hip fractures who were treated between January 2010 and December 2013, with either PHR or THR. Patients' information was withdrawn from our local computerized database. The age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were calculated for all patients. The patients were followed for 2 years after surgery. Survival and surgical re-intervention rates were compared between the two groups using a Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

A total of 356 individuals were included in this study. At 2 years of follow-up, 221 (74.4%) of the patients with ACCI score≤7 were still alive, in contrast to only 20 (29.0%) of those with ACCI score>7. In addition, 201 (76.2%) of the patients with ASA score≤3 were still alive after 2 years, compared to 30 (32.6%) of individuals with ASA >3. Patients with the ACCI score>7, and ASA score>3 had a significant increase in all-cause 2-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio of 3.2, 95% CI 2.2-4.6; and 3.12, 95% CI 2.2-4.5, respectively). Patients with an ASA score>3 had a quasi-significant increase in the re-intervention risk (adjusted hazard ratio 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-5.1). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values of ACCI in predicting 2-year mortality were 39.2%, 91.1%, 71%, and 74.4%, respectively. On the other hand, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values of ASA score in predicting 2-year mortality were 49.6%, 79.1%, 67.4%, and 76.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ACCI and ASA scales were able to predict the 2-year survival of patients with intracapsular hip fractures. The ASA scale was also able to predict the risk of re-intervention in these patients.

Are Albumin Levels a Good Predictor of Mortality in Elderly Patients with Neck of Femur Fractures?

BACKGROUND

Neck of femur (NOF) fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in elderly people with multiple co-morbidities; making management of this patient subgroup challenging. Predictors of an increase in morbidity and mortality would therefore provide a useful framework for the assessment and management of this demographic. Within the current literature, hypoalbuminaemia (<35g/dl) has been highlighted as being a good biochemical predictor of short-term mortality (<12 months). Our aims were to assess whether there was an association between low albumin levels and mortality and whether the severity adversely affects outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted to our large district hospital between January 2011 and December 2012 who had sustained a NOF fracture, were over 65 years old and had a pre-operative albumin level were included. This retrospective, longitudinal, observational study concluded in July 2014. Demographic and pre-operative function and albumin data was collated retrospectively. An association with mortality was made.

RESULTS

471 patients had usable data. Mean pre-operative albumin level was 29.5g/dl (SD 6.22g/dl) in patients who died and 32.8g/dl (SD 6.43g/dl) in patients who survived during the study period. Pre-operative albumin level was significantly associated with survival (hazard ratio 0.957: 95% CI (0.937, 0.978); p<0.001). Thus, a reduction of 1g/dl in pre-operative albumin is associated with an increased hazard of death of 4.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Early identification of patients with hypoalbuminaemia on admission with a venous blood sample and timely input from orthogeriatrians could optimise these patients pre- and post-operatively. This may enable rates of morbidity and mortality to fall. Hypoalbuminaemia may be a reasonable predictor of shorter-term mortality in this patient subgroup. However, this may reflect existing co-morbidities rather than an isolated cause. This study supports an association between hypoalbuminaemia and poorer outcome for patients with NOF fractures.

Risk scoring models for predicting peri-operative morbidity and mortality in people with fragility hip fractures: Qualitative systematic review

RATIONALE

Accurate peri-operative risk prediction is an essential element of clinical practice. Various risk stratification tools for assessing patients' risk of mortality or morbidity have been developed and applied in clinical practice over the years. This review aims to outline essential characteristics (predictive accuracy, objectivity, clinical utility) of currently available risk scoring tools for hip fracture patients.

METHODS

We searched eight databases; AMED, CINHAL, Clinical Trials.gov, Cochrane, DARE, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Web of Science for all relevant studies published until April 2015. We included published English language observational studies that considered the predictive accuracy of risk stratification tools for patients with fragility hip fracture.

RESULTS

After removal of duplicates, 15,620 studies were screened. Twenty-nine papers met the inclusion criteria, evaluating 25 risk stratification tools. Risk stratification tools considered in more than two studies were; ASA, CCI, E-PASS, NHFS and O-POSSUM. All tools were moderately accurate and validated in multiple studies; however there are some limitations to consider. The E-PASS and O-POSSUM are comprehensive but complex, and require intraoperative data making them a challenge for use on patient bedside. The ASA, CCI and NHFS are simple, easy and inexpensive using routinely available preoperative data. Contrary to the ASA and CCI which has subjective variables in addition to other limitations, the NHFS variables are all objective.

CONCLUSION

In the search for a simple and inexpensive, easy to calculate, objective and accurate tool, the NHFS may be the most appropriate of the currently available scores for hip fracture patients. However more studies need to be undertaken before it becomes a national hip fracture risk stratification or audit tool of choice.

Risk assessment and decision-making for patients undergoing orthopedic surgery

PURPOSE

Physical and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system was designed to predict the postoperative morbidity and mortality mainly in general surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the value of POSSUM scoring system in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, and to do some modifications to make the system more accurate in predicting postoperative complication rates.

METHODS

This is a retrospective clinical study involving 779 patients between April 1, 2009 and September 1, 2010. The postoperative complication rates were predicted by POSSUM, and then compared with the actual morbidity. Logistic regression was taken to improve the POSSUM equation.

RESULTS

In the 779 cases, the predicted morbidity was 27.2% (212 cases) by POSSUM, while the actual morbidity is 8.3% (65 cases).

CONCLUSION

POSSUM excessively predicted the morbidity of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, and it could be more accurate with appropriate modification. Of all risk factors, echocardiography ejection fraction showed a close relationship with postoperative complications.

Comorbid Profile Rather than Age Determines Hip Fracture Mortality in a Nonagenarian Population

BACKGROUND

In light of poor outcomes with nonoperative management of hip fractures, orthopedic surgeons are faced with difficult decisions about which patients are too ill or too old for surgical treatment.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

This study sought to investigate if patients over 90 years had different preoperative laboratory, clinical, and injury characteristics than younger patients with the same injury. We compared our cohort with previously published data. We wished to identify if there were pre-injury risk factors associated with 30-day mortality, which could be modified to enhance postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

This is a retrospective review of 198 operatively managed hip fractures in patients 75 years or older. We collected data on demographics, select preoperative laboratory values, injury type, comorbidities, and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Eleven (5.6%) of the cohort died within 30 days of surgery, 6.3% in the younger group, and 3.7% in the older group; the difference was not statistically significant. For baseline characteristics, there was no difference between the age groups for pre-injury comorbidities, hemoglobin, serum albumin, BUN, prevalence of UTI, or fracture type. A total of 67 (35.8%) patients had evidence of UTI on admission.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal that in our dichotomized cohort, pre-injury characteristics were similar and age alone was not an independent predictor of mortality. These data may inform decision-making for orthopedic surgeons and the medical providers who consult to optimize these patients for surgery. We identified high rates of UTI in both age groups, a potentially remediable factor to optimize outcomes in hip fracture surgery in elderly patients.

Independent validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and identification of regional variation in patient risk within England

The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to assess the risk of death following a fracture of the hip, based on pre-operative patient characteristics. We performed an independent validation of the NHFS, assessed the degree of geographical variation that exists between different units within the United Kingdom and attempted to define a NHFS level that is associated with high risk of mortality. The NHFS was calculated retrospectively for consecutive patients presenting with a fracture of the hip to two hospitals in England. The observed 30-day mortality for each NHFS cohort was compared with that predicted by the NHFS using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The distribution of NHFS in the observed group was compared with data from other hospitals in the United Kingdom. The proportion of patients identified as high risk and the mortality within the high risk group were assessed for groups defined using different thresholds for the NHFS. In all 1079 hip fractures were included in the analysis, with a mean age of 83 years (60 to 105), 284 (26%) male. Overall 30-day mortality was 7.3%. The NHFS was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality. Statistically significant differences in the distribution of the NHFS were present between different units in England (p < 0.001). A NHFS ≥ 6 appears to be an appropriate cut-point to identify patients at high risk of mortality following a fracture of the hip.

Predicting 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of six risk prediction models

INTRODUCTION

While predictors for mortality after hip fracture surgery have been widely studied, research regarding risk prediction models is limited. Risk models can predict mortality for individual patients, provide insight in prognosis, and be valuable in surgical audits. Existing models have not been validated independently. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of existing risk models for predicting 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, all consecutive hip fracture patients admitted between 2004 and 2010 were included. Predicted mortality was calculated for individual patients and compared to the observed outcome. The discriminative performance of the models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was analysed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

A literature search yielded six risk prediction models: the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Orthopaedic Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (O-POSSUM), Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), a risk model by Jiang et al., the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), and a model by Holt et al. The latter three models were specifically designed for the hip fracture population. All models except the O-POSSUM achieved an AUC greater than 0.70, demonstrating acceptable discriminative power. The score by Jiang et al. performed best with an AUC of 0.78, this was however not significantly different from the NHFS (0.77) or the model by Holt et al. (0.76). When applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the model by Holt et al., the NHFS and the model by Jiang et al. showed a significant lack of fit (p<0.05). The CCI, O-POSSUM and E-PASS did not demonstrate lack of calibration.

DISCUSSION

None of the existing models yielded excellent discrimination (AUC>0.80). The best discrimination was demonstrated by the models designed for the hip fracture population, however, they had a lack of fit. The NHFS shows most promising results, with reasonable discrimination and extensive validation in earlier studies. Additional research is needed to examine recalibration and to determine the best risk model for predicting early mortality following hip fracture surgery.

The impact of serum albumin and serum protein levels on POSSUM score of patients with proximal femur fractures

BACKGROUND

POSSUM was developed to predict risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity rates for surgical procedures. We evaluated the impact of serum albumin and serum protein levels on POSSUM scores.

METHODS

Medical files of 2269 patients operated for proximal femur fractures were reviewed. Preoperative serum albumin levels were available for 387 patients (mean 35.1g/l, range 22-49) and serum protein levels for 279 patients (mean 61.6g/l, range 40-86).

RESULTS

Serum albumin and protein levels were inversely associated with mortality in multivariate models (albumin, OR=0.89, p=0.009; protein, OR=0.92, p=0.009) and in composite outcome models as well (albumin, OR=0.955, p=0.219, protein, OR=0.94, p=0.014). The area under the curve (AUC) for POSSUM prediction of mortality (n=1770) was 0.632 (95% CI: 0.580-0.684, p<0.001). The AUC for a model including serum protein levels was 0.742 (95% CI: 0.649-0.834, p<0.001). Hospitalisation time was longer for patients with lower serum proteins levels (p=0.045), with an inverse correlation (Pearson correlation -0.164, p=0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower preoperative serum albumin and serum protein levels were associated with increased risk for mortality, increased hospitalisation time and poorer outcomes in patients operated for proximal femoral fractures. Including those values to POSSUM scores would increase their predictive power.

Neck of femur fractures in the over 90s: a select group of patients who require prompt surgical intervention for optimal results

BACKGROUND

Patients in the extremes of old age with a femoral neck fracture represent a challenging subgroup, and are thought to be associated with poorer outcomes due to increased numbers of comorbidities. Whilst many studies are aimed at determining the optimum time for surgical fixation, there is no agreed consensus for those over 90. The aim of this study is to report the surgical outcome of this population, to understand the role surgical timing may have on operative outcomes using the orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system and to identify whether medical optimization occurs during the period of admission before surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study; data was collected from two district general hospitals over 32 consecutive months. All patients aged 90 and above who were deemed suitable for surgical fixation were included. Each one had their orthopaedic POSSUM score calculated at admission and at surgery, using their computerised and paper medical records. Assessment of outcome was based on morbidity and mortality at 30 days.

RESULTS

A total of 146 consecutive patients above the age of 90 underwent surgery and were followed. The average age of the patients was 93 years, 123 (84 %) were female and 23 (16%) male. Sixty-one patients were operated on within 24 h from admission, 52 patients within 24 and 48 h and 33 had surgery after 48 h from admission. In total, 21 deaths (14.4%) were recorded and 81 patients (55.5%) had a post-operative complication within 30 days. The orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system predicted 30-day mortality in 23 patients and morbidity in 83 patients. This gave observed to predicted ratios of 0.91 and 0.98 respectively. Overall, there was a small improvement in physiological scores taken just prior to surgery compared to those at admission. Mortality and morbidity rates were higher for those operated on or after 24 and 48-h cutoffs compared to those proceeding to surgery within 24 h (P = 0.071 and P = 0.021 respectively and P = 0.048 and P = 0.00011 respectively). When stratified according to their POSSUM scores, patients with scores of 41+ and surgery after 48 h had a significantly higher mortality rate than if they had surgery earlier (P = 0.038). Morbidity rates rose after 24 h of surgical delay (P = 0.026). Patients with a total POSSUM score between 33 and 40 exhibited a higher morbidity after a 24-h delay to surgery (P = 0.0064).

CONCLUSION

As life expectancy increases, older patients are becoming commoner in our hospital systems. We believe the orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system can be used as an adjuvant tool in prioritising surgical need, and allow for a more impartial evaluation when changes to practice are made. Our findings show that timing of surgery has an important bearing on mortality and morbidity after hip surgery, and older patients with higher orthopaedic POSSUM scores are sensitive to delays in surgery.

Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery

Object

The Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems are surgical risk scoring systems that take into account both the patient's preoperative condition and intraoperative variables. While they predict postoperative morbidity and mortality rates for several types of surgery, spinal surgeries are currently not included. The authors assessed the usefulness of E-PASS and POSSUM algorithms and compared the predictive ability of both systems in patients with spinal disorders considered for surgery.

Methods

The E-PASS system includes a preoperative risk score, a surgical stress score, and a comprehensive risk score that is determined by both the preoperative risk score and surgical stress score. The POSSUM system is composed of a physiological score and an operative severity score; its total score is based on both the physiological score and operative severity score. The authors calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for 601 consecutive patients who had undergone spinal surgery and investigated the relationship between the individual scores of both systems and the incidence of postoperative complications. They also assessed the correctness of the predicted morbidity rate of both systems.

Results

Postoperative complications developed in 64 patients (10.6%); there were no in-hospital deaths. All EPASS scores (p ≤ 0.001) and the operative severity score and total score of the POSSUM (p < 0.03) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications. The morbidity rates correlated linearly and significantly with all E-PASS scores (p ≤ 0.001); their coefficients (preoperative risk score, ρ = 0.179; surgical stress score, ρ = 0.131; and comprehensive risk score, ρ = 0.198) were higher than those for the POSSUM scores (physiological score, ρ = 0.059; operative severity score, ρ = 0.111; and total score, ρ = 0.091). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predicted morbidity rate was 0.668 for the E-PASS and 0.588 for the POSSUM system.

Conclusions

As E-PASS predicted morbidity more correctly than POSSUM, it is useful for estimating the postoperative risk of patients considered for spinal surgery.

Comparison of the POSSUM score and P-POSSUM score in patients with femoral neck fracture

PURPOSE

The ageing of the population in developed countries has led to an increased number of patients with hip fractures all over the world. POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores predict morbidity and mortality of patients who will be undergoing a surgical treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate accuracy of these two scores in hip-fractured patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January and December 2012, in our department 144 patients were hospitalised for femoral neck fractures according to the grade III or IV of Garden's classification treated with total hip arthroplasty or endoprosthesis. POSSUM scores and P-POSSUM scores were calculated for each patient with complete clinical data. We then calculated the observed and the expected ratio.

RESULTS

134 patients were eligible: 110 females and 24 males. The mean age for women was 79 years, and the mean age for men was 84 years. We observed 13 deaths and 66 complications. The POSSUM scores predicted 16 deaths and 60 complications, while P-POSSUM scores predicted 6 deaths. The O/E ratio for POSSUM mortality was 0.81 and for P-POSSUM was 2.17, while POSSUM morbidity was 1.1.

CONCLUSION

In our study, we have shown that on the one hand, the POSSUM score predicted accurately both the mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing surgery for the femoral neck fracture, while on the other hand, the P-POSSUM score underestimated them. For this reason, we believe that the POSSUM is indeed a good audit tool, which can accurately predict both mortality and morbidity in a cohort of patients.

Red cell distribution width is an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture

BACKGROUND

the red cell distribution width (RDW), an automated measure of variability in the red blood cell size on full blood count (FBC) is an independent predictor of mortality in several disease states and in healthy older people.

OBJECTIVE

we wanted to determine the prognostic value of RDW in patients following a hip fracture-a condition associated with high mortality.

DESIGN

we examined the relationship between admission RDW and mortality in 698 consecutive patients admitted with hip fracture.

METHOD

regression analysis was used to examine admission RDW and subsequent mortality, adjusting for admission haemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, age, gender, pre-morbid residence and independence level, Charlson co-morbidity index and post-operative complications.

RESULTS

the mean age was 78 ± 13 years. Unadjusted 1-year mortality was 12, 15, 29 and 36% across quartiles of increasing RDW. Along with age and post-operative complications, RDW remained significantly associated with in-hospital, 120-day and 1-year mortality [adjusted hazard ratios: HR: 1.119, 95% CI: (1.000-1.253), P = 0.05, 1.134 (1.047-1.227), P = 0.004 and 1.131 (1.067-1.199), P < 0.001, respectively]. These relationships remained significant at all three time points on repeat analysis in non-anaemic patients (n = 548).

CONCLUSION

RDW, a widely available parameter on FBC, is independently associated with an increased risk of short- and long-term mortality following hip fracture.

Evaluation of a Modified POSSUM Scoring System for Predicting the Morbidity in Patients Undergoing Lumbar Surgery

For most spine surgeons, operative intervention is common for the treatment of lumbar disc herniation, lumbar stenosis, lumbar fracture or lumbar spondylolisthesis. However, with the increase in lumbar surgery, the complication rate increases accordingly. Whereas the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system has been widely used to predict morbidity in various surgical fields, the application of this system in lumbar surgery has not been reported. From January 2008 to January 2010, we recruited 158 patients (85 males and 73 females) with operation for lumbar disc herniation, lumbar stenosis, lumbar fracture, or lumbar spondylolisthesis. All patients were analyzed to compare the morbidity by a modified POSSUM scoring system. According to the modified POSSUM, the expected morbidity was 51 cases (32.3 %), whereas the observed mortality was 42 cases (26.6 %). The overall observed-to-expected ratio was 0.82, and the chi-squared test indicated no statistically significant difference between the expected and observed morbidities (χ (2) = 1.23, P = 0.27), suggesting that the modified POSSUM can accurately estimate the outcome. The modified POSSUM scoring system we developed is a useful tool for predicting and evaluating morbidity in lumbar surgery. Further studies are required to investigate whether this scoring system can predict mortality.

[Hip fracture in elderly patients: emergency management and indicators]

Hip fracture is a common condition associated with a poor outcome with 20-30% one-year mortality in the elderly. Autonomy and quality of life remains key considerations in this population. Emergency management should consider associated diseases and treatments, as well as fall and fracture. Management should target particular conditions such as pain, anemia and transfusion, time to surgery and occurrence of pressure sores, and should consider these as quality criteria. In this way, a new approach must be evaluated and requires an optimal cooperation between emergency physician, orthopaedic surgeon, anaesthetists and geriatrician. Place and interest of new models of care such as orthogeriatrics unit have to be determined.

Ward-based rather than team-based junior surgical doctors reduce mortality for patients with a fracture of the proximal femur: results from a two-year observational study

We performed a retrospective study of a departmental database to assess the efficacy of a new model of orthopaedic care on the outcome of patients with a fracture of the proximal femur. All 1578 patients admitted to a university teaching hospital with a fracture of the proximal femur between December 2007 and December 2009 were included. The allocation of Foundation doctors years 1 and 2 was restructured from individual teams covering several wards to pairs covering individual wards. No alterations were made in the numbers of doctors, their hours, out-of-hours cover, or any other aspect of standard patient care. Outcome measures comprised 30-day mortality and cause, complications and length of stay. Mortality was reduced from 11.7% to 7.6% (p = 0.007, Cox's regression analysis); adjusted odds ratio was 1.559 (95% confidence interval 1.128 to 2.156). Reductions were seen in Clostridium difficile colitis (p = 0.017), deep wound infection (p = 0.043) and gastrointestinal haemorrhage (p = 0.033). There were no differences in any patient risk factors (except the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), cause of death and length of stay before and after intervention. The underlying mechanisms are unclear, but may include improved efficiency and medical contact time. These findings may have implications for all specialties caring for patients on several wards, and we believe they justify a prospective trial to further assess this effect.

How to optimize patients for geriatric fracture surgery

Low-energy fragility fractures account for >80% of fractures in elderly patients, and with aging populations, geriatric fracture surgery makes up a substantial proportion of the orthopedic workload. Elderly patients have markedly less physiologic reserve than do younger patients, and comorbidity is common. Even with optimal care, the risk of mortality and morbidity remains high. Multidisciplinary care, including early orthogeriatric input, is recommended to anticipate and treat complications. This article explores modern treatment strategies for this challenging group of patients and provides guidance for systematically preparing and optimizing elderly patients before surgery, based on best available current evidence and recommendations by relevant health organizations.

New equations for predicting postoperative risk in patients with hip fracture

Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system: An assessment of the risk of debridement in patients with pressure sores

We hypothesised that the implementation of a validated method of audit, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), would be useful in the evaluation of the risks of debridement in bedridden patients with pressure ulcers. With the orthopaedic version of POSSUM (O-POSSUM), physiological data and an operative profile are scored to predict mortality for 30 days postoperatively. Fourteen cases were analysed retrospectively. The difference in predicted mortality was compared with those who died and those who survived. The mean (SD) predicted mortality among those who died was 47 (16)%, and among those who lived was 18 (14)%. Those who died were classified as a relatively high risk group, and the values differed significantly (p=0.01). O-POSSUM may be helpful in audit.

Development and validation of a preoperative scoring system to predict 30 day mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are common in the elderly and have a high 30 day postoperative mortality. The ability to recognize patients at high risk of poor outcomes before operation would be an important clinical advance. This study has determined key prognostic factors predicting 30 day mortality in a hip fracture population, and incorporated them into a scoring system to be used on admission.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted at the Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham, over a period of 7 yr. Complete data were collected from 4967 patients and analysed. Forward univariate logistic regression was used to select the independent predictor variables of 30 day mortality, and then multivariate logistic regression was applied to the data to construct and validate the scoring system.

RESULTS

The variables found to be independent predictors of mortality at 30 days were: age (66-85 yr, > or =86 yr), sex (male), number of co-morbidities (> or =2), mini-mental test score (< or =6 out of 10), admission haemoglobin concentration (< or =10 g dl(-1)), living in an institution, and presence of malignant disease. These variables were subsequently incorporated into a risk score, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. The number of deaths observed at 30 days, and the number of deaths predicted by the scoring system, indicated good concordance (chi(2) test, P=0.79). The area (SE) under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.719 (0.018), which demonstrated a reasonable predictive value for the score.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a scoring system that reliably predicts the probability of mortality at 30 days for patients after hip fracture.

The use of orthopaedic POSSUM as an audit tool for fractured neck of femur

In this prospective study, 230 patients who were operated on for a fractured neck of femur were evaluated using the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM). We observed 25 deaths (10.9%) and 95 patients had a post-operative complication (41.3%). The orthopaedic POSSUM equations yielded an overall predicted mortality of 21 patients and morbidity in 106 patients. This gave observed to expected (O:E) ratios of 1.19 and 0.95 respectively meaning that POSSUM agreed well with the observed mortality and morbidity. We concluded that POSSUM accurately predicts mortality and morbidity in patients with femoral neck fractures and when used as an audit tool would provide a fairer system of comparison and would allow an unbiased interpretation of results when changes in patient management are made.

Predictive value of six risk scores for outcome after surgical repair of hip fracture in elderly patients

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture surgery is associated with high post-operative mortality and poor functional results: the excess mortality is 20% in the first year; of those patients who survive, only 50% recover their previous ability to walk. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of six functional status and/or surgical risk scoring systems with regard to serious complications after hip fracture surgery in the elderly.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of a consecutive series of 232 patients (aged 65 years or older) undergoing hip fracture surgery. We pre-operatively applied: The American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, the Barthel index, the Goldman index, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system, the Charlson index and the Visual Analogue Scale for Risk (RISK-VAS) scale. These scales were evaluated with respect to three variables: incidence of serious complications, the ability to walk after a 3-month period and 90-day survival. The predictive value of the different scales was assessed by the calculated area under a receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The RISK-VAS scale, the POSSUM scoring system and the Charlson index reached a sufficient predictive value with regard to serious post-operative complications. The Barthel index and the RISK-VAS scale were those most useful for predicting ambulation at 3 months. None of the scales proved to be capable of predicting 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple index such as the RISK-VAS scale was the best predictor of serious post-operative complications. The functional level before the fracture, measured with the Barthel index, had a major influence on the ambulation recovery.