Assessing asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2

Validating combination throat-nasal swabs for COVID-19 tests would improve early detection, especially for the most vulnerable

Early detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection by diagnostic tests can prompt actions to reduce transmission and improve treatment efficacy, especially for vulnerable groups such as immunocompromised individuals. Recent evidence suggests that sampling the throat in addition to the nose improves clinical sensitivity during early infection for both antigen and molecular coronavirus disease 2019 tests. We urge test manufacturers to validate tests for use with throat swab, in combination with nasal swabs.

Using a population-based Kalman estimator to model the COVID-19 epidemic in France: estimating associations between disease transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments have adopted a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These include stringent measures such as strict lockdowns, closing schools, bars and restaurants, curfews, and barrier gestures such as mask-wearing and social distancing. Deciphering the effectiveness of each NPI is critical to responding to future waves and outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a dynamic model of the French COVID-19 epidemics over a one-year period. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of infection that includes a dynamic transmission rate over time. Multilevel data across French regions are integrated using random effects on the parameters of the mechanistic model, boosting statistical power by multiplying integrated observation series. We estimate the parameters using a new population-based statistical approach based on a Kalman filter, used for the first time in analysing real-world data. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model that depends on the NPIs while accounting for vaccination coverage, the occurrence of variants of concern (VoC), and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPIs considered have an independent significant association with transmission rates. In addition, we show a strong association between weather conditions that reduces transmission in summer, and we also estimate increased transmissibility of VoC.

Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.

SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: the role of occupational and household exposures during the first three pandemic waves in Quebec, Canada

Objective

We described the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 source of infection in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs) of Quebec, Canada, during the first three pandemic waves. We also estimated their household secondary attack rate (SAR) and its risk factors.

Design

Cross-sectional surveys.

Participants

HCWs with a SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerasa chain reaction and diagnosed between March 2020 and May 2021.

Methods

We collected demographic, clinical, vaccination, and employment information, self-reported perceived source of infection, and transmission to household members during the first three pandemic waves. SAR was calculated for households with ≥2 members where the HCW was the index case. A Poisson regression model estimated the association between risk factors and SAR.

Results

Among the 11,670 HCWs completing the survey, 91%, perceived their workplace as the source of infection during the first wave (March-July 2020), 71% during the second wave (July 2020-March 2021), and 40% during the third wave (March-May 2021). Conversely, HCWs reported an increasing proportion of household-acquired infections with each wave from 4% to 14% and 33%, respectively. The overall household SAR of 7,990 HCWs living with ≥1 person was 30% (95%CI: 29-30). SAR increased with the presence of symptoms, older age, and during Alpha-variant predominant period.

Conclusions

HCWs and their household members were largely affected during the first pandemic waves of COVID-19, but the relative importance of occupational exposure changed overtime. Pandemic preparedness in healthcare settings is essential to protect HCWs from emerging biological hazard exposures.

Novel Approach for Identification of Basic and Effective Reproduction Numbers Illustrated with COVID-19

This paper presents a novel numerical technique for the identification of effective and basic reproduction numbers, Re and R0, for long-term epidemics, using an inverse problem approach. The method is based on the direct integration of the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) system of ordinary differential equations and the least-squares method. Simulations were conducted using official COVID-19 data for the United States and Canada, and for the states of Georgia, Texas, and Louisiana, for a period of two years and ten months. The results demonstrate the applicability of the method in simulating the dynamics of the epidemic and reveal an interesting relationship between the number of currently infectious individuals and the effective reproduction number, which is a useful tool for predicting the epidemic dynamics. For all conducted experiments, the results show that the local maximum (and minimum) values of the time-dependent effective reproduction number occur approximately three weeks before the local maximum (and minimum) values of the number of currently infectious individuals. This work provides a novel and efficient approach for the identification of time-dependent epidemics parameters.

Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission

Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R₀, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model for a hypothetical acute viral infection and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.

Association between COVID-19 and consistent mask wearing during contact with others outside the household-A nested case-control analysis, November 2020-October 2021

BACKGROUND

Face masks have been recommended to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, evidence of the individual benefit of face masks remains limited, including by vaccination status.

METHODS

As part of the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership cohort study, we performed a nested case-control analysis to assess the association between self-reported consistent mask use during contact with others outside the household and subsequent odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) during November 2020-October 2021. Using conditional logistic regression, we compared 359 case-participants to 3544 control-participants who were matched by date, adjusting for enrollment site, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, urban/rural county classification, and healthcare worker occupation.

RESULTS

COVID-19 was associated with not consistently wearing a mask (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.14, 1.95]). Compared with persons ≥14 days after mRNA vaccination who also reported always wearing a mask, COVID-19 was associated with being unvaccinated (aOR 5.94; 95% CI [3.04, 11.62]), not wearing a mask (aOR 1.62; 95% CI [1.07, 2.47]), or both unvaccinated and not wearing a mask (aOR 9.07; 95% CI [4.81, 17.09]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that consistent mask wearing can complement vaccination to reduce the risk of COVID-19.

Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants

Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high-resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID-19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high-resolution agent-based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID-19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.

Association Between Population-Level Factors and Household Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Accurate estimation of household secondary attack rate (SAR) is crucial to understand the transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of population-level factors, such as transmission intensity in the community, on SAR estimates is rarely explored.

Methods

In this study, we included articles with original data to compute the household SAR. To determine the impact of transmission intensity in the community on household SAR estimates, we explored the association between SAR estimates and the incidence rate of cases by country during the study period.

Results

We identified 163 studies to extract data on SARs from 326 031 cases and 2 009 859 household contacts. The correlation between the incidence rate of cases during the study period and SAR estimates was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49). We found that doubling the incidence rate of cases during the study period was associated with a 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) higher household SAR.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence rate of cases during the study period is associated with higher SAR. Ignoring this factor may overestimate SARs, especially for regions with high incidences, which further impacts control policies and epidemiological characterization of emerging variants.

Recursive state and parameter estimation of COVID-19 circulating variants dynamics

COVID-19 pandemic response with non-pharmaceutical interventions is an intrinsic control problem. Governments weigh social distancing policies to avoid overload in the health system without significant economic impact. The mutability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, vaccination coverage, and mobility restriction measures change epidemic dynamics over time. A model-based control strategy requires reliable predictions to be efficient on a long-term basis. In this paper, a SEIR-based model is proposed considering dynamic feedback estimation. State and parameter estimations are performed on state estimators using augmented states. Three methods were implemented: constrained extended Kalman filter (CEKF), CEKF and smoother (CEKF & S), and moving horizon estimator (MHE). The parameters estimation was based on vaccine efficacy studies regarding transmissibility, severity of the disease, and lethality. Social distancing was assumed as a measured disturbance calculated using Google mobility data. Data from six federative units from Brazil were used to evaluate the proposed strategy. State and parameter estimations were performed from 1 October 2020 to 1 July 2021, during which Zeta and Gamma variants emerged. Simulation results showed that lethality increased between 11 and 30% for Zeta mutations and between 44 and 107% for Gamma mutations. In addition, transmissibility increased between 10 and 37% for the Zeta variant and between 43 and 119% for the Gamma variant. Furthermore, parameter estimation indicated temporal underreporting changes in hospitalized and deceased individuals. Overall, the estimation strategy showed to be suitable for dynamic feedback as simulation results presented an efficient detection and dynamic characterization of circulating variants.

Comparison of anterior nares CT values in asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 in a university screening program

At our university based high throughput screening program, we test all members of our community weekly using RT-qPCR. RT-qPCR cycle threshold (CT) values are inversely proportional to the amount of viral RNA in a sample and are a proxy for viral load. We hypothesized that CT values would be higher, and thus the viral loads at the time of diagnosis would be lower, in individuals who were infected with the virus but remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection. We collected the N1 and N2 target gene CT values from 1633 SARS-CoV-2 positive RT-qPCR tests of individuals sampled between August 7, 2020, and March 18, 2021, at the BU Clinical Testing Laboratory. We matched this data with symptom reporting data from our clinical team. We found that asymptomatic patients had CT values significantly higher than symptomatic individuals on the day of diagnosis. Symptoms were followed by the clinical team for 10 days post the first positive test. Within the entire population, 78.1% experienced at least one symptom during surveillance by the clinical team (n = 1276/1633). Of those experiencing symptoms, the most common symptoms were nasal congestion (73%, n = 932/1276), cough (60.0%, n = 761/1276), fatigue (59.0%, n = 753/1276), and sore throat (53.1%, n = 678/1276). The least common symptoms were diarrhea (12.5%, n = 160/1276), dyspnea on exertion (DOE) (6.9%, n = 88/1276), foot or skin changes (including rash) (4.2%, n = 53/1276), and vomiting (2.1%, n = 27/1276). Presymptomatic individuals, those who were not symptomatic on the day of diagnosis but became symptomatic over the following 10 days, had CT values higher for both N1 (median = 27.1, IQR 20.2-32.9) and N2 (median = 26.6, IQR 20.1-32.8) than the symptomatic group N1 (median = 21.8, IQR 17.2-29.4) and N2 (median = 21.4, IQR 17.3-28.9) but lower than the asymptomatic group N1 (median = 29.9, IQR 23.6-35.5) and N2 (median = 30.0, IQR 23.1-35.7). This study supports the hypothesis that viral load in the anterior nares on the day of diagnosis is a measure of disease intensity at that time.

SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR testing of pooled saliva samples: A case study of 824 asymptomatic individuals and a questionnaire survey in Japan

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for diagnostic and screening tests has exceeded supply. Although the proportion of vaccinated people has increased in wealthier countries, breakthrough infections have occurred amid the emergence of new variants. Pooled-sample COVID-19 testing using saliva has been proposed as an efficient, inexpensive, and non-invasive method to allow larger-scale testing, especially in a screening setting. In this study, we aimed to evaluate pooled RT-qPCR saliva testing and to compare the results with individual tests. Employees of Philips Japan, Ltd. were recruited to participate in COVID-19 screening from October to December 2020. Asymptomatic individuals (n = 824) submitted self-collected saliva samples. Samples were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR in both 10-sample pools and individual tests. We also surveyed participants regarding their thoughts and behaviors after the PCR screening project. Two of the 824 individuals were positive by RT-qPCR. In the pooled testing, one of these two had no measurable Ct value, but showed an amplification trend at the end of the PCR cycle. Both positive individuals developed cold-like symptoms, but neither required hospitalization. Of the 824 participants, 471 responded to our online questionnaire. Overall, while respondents agreed that PCR screening should be performed regularly, the majority were willing to undergo PCR testing only when it was provided for free or at low cost. In conclusion, pooled testing of saliva samples can support frequent large-scale screening that is rapid, efficient, and inexpensive.

Why do some coronaviruses become pandemic threats when others do not?

Despite multiple spillover events and short chains of transmission on at least 4 continents, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has never triggered a pandemic. By contrast, its relative, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has, despite apparently little, if any, previous circulation in humans. Resolving the unsolved mystery of the failure of MERS-CoV to trigger a pandemic could help inform how we understand the pandemic potential of pathogens, and probing it underscores a need for a more holistic understanding of the ways in which viral genetic changes scale up to population-level transmission.

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.

REVIEW PROTOCOL

Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/9ewys/).

Singing Is a Risk Factor for SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case-control Study of Karaoke-related COVID-19 Outbreaks in Two Cities in Hokkaido, Japan, Linked by Whole Genome Analysis

Background

Singing in an indoor space may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We conducted a case-control study of karaoke-related COVID-19 outbreaks to reveal the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection among individuals who participate in karaoke.

Methods

Cases were defined as people who enjoyed karaoke at a bar and who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR between May 16 and July 3, 2020. Controls were defined as people who enjoyed karaoke at the same bar during the same period as the cases and tested negative. Odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) were calculated. ORs were adjusted by variables with significantly high odds ratio (aOR).

Results

We identified 81 cases, the majority of whom were active elderly individuals (median age: 75 years). Six cases died (case fatality ratio: 7%). Among the cases, 68 (84%) were guests, 18 of whom had visited more than two karaoke bars. A genome analysis conducted in 30 cases showed six types of isolates within four single-nucleotide variations difference. The case-control study revealed that singing (aOR 11.0, 95% CI, 1.2-101.0), not wearing a mask (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.2-11.2) and time spent per visit (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.7) were associated with COVID-19 infection.

Conclusions

A karaoke-related COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in two different cities was confirmed by the results of genome analysis. Singing in less-ventilated, indoor and crowded environments increases the risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. Wearing a mask and staying for only a short time can reduce the risk of infection during karaoke.

Transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections in Guangdong, China, May to June 2021

Background

The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 had become predominant globally by November 2021.

Aim

We evaluated transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant in an outbreak in southern China.

Methods

Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and their close contacts were retrospectively collected from the outbreak that occurred in Guangdong, China in May and June 2021. Key epidemiological parameters, temporal trend of viral loads and secondary attack rates were estimated. We also evaluated the association of vaccination with viral load and transmission.

Results

We identified 167 patients infected with the Delta variant in the Guangdong outbreak. Mean estimates of latent and incubation period were 3.9 days and 5.8 days, respectively. Relatively higher viral load was observed in infections with Delta than in infections with wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Secondary attack rate among close contacts of cases with Delta was 1.4%, and 73.1% (95% credible interval (CrI): 32.9–91.4) of the transmissions occurred before onset. Index cases without vaccination (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.84; 95% CI: 1.19–8.45) or with an incomplete vaccination series (aOR: 6.02; 95% CI: 2.45–18.16) were more likely to transmit infection to their contacts than those who had received the complete primary vaccination series.

Discussion

Patients infected with the Delta variant had more rapid symptom onset compared with the wild type. The time-varying serial interval should be accounted for in estimation of reproduction numbers. The higher viral load and higher risk of pre-symptomatic transmission indicated the challenges in control of infections with the Delta variant.

Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

In countries with high COVID-19 vaccination rates the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers. This study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. We aimed to understand the potential effectiveness of high vaccine coverage levels together with NPI physical distancing activation and to establish the benefit of adding children and adolescents to the vaccination program. Border closure limited SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia; however, slow vaccination uptake resulted in Delta outbreaks in the two largest cities and may continue as international travel increases.

METHODS

An agent-based model was used to evaluate the potential reduction in the COVID-19 health burden resulting from alternative vaccination strategies. We assumed immunity was derived from vaccination with the BNT162b2 Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Two age-specific vaccination strategies were evaluated, ages 5 and above, and 12 and above, and the health burden determined under alternative vaccine coverages, with/without activation of NPIs. Age-specific infections generated by the model, together with recent UK data, permitted reductions in the health burden to be quantified.

RESULTS

Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are shown to reduce by (i) increasing coverage to include children aged 5 to 11 years, (ii) activating moderate NPI measures and/or (iii) increasing coverage levels above 80%. At 80% coverage, vaccinating ages 12 and above without NPIs is predicted to result in 1095 additional hospitalisations per million population; adding ages 5 and above reduces this to 996 per million population. Activating moderate NPIs reduces hospitalisations to 611 for ages 12 and over, and 382 per million for ages 5 and above. Alternatively, increasing coverage to 90% for those aged 12 and above is estimated to reduce hospitalisations to 616. Combining all three measures is shown to reduce cases to 158, hospitalisations to 1 and deaths to zero, per million population.

CONCLUSIONS

Delta variant outbreaks may be managed by vaccine coverage rates higher than 80% and activation of moderate NPI measures, preventing healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. If 90% coverage cannot be achieved, including young children and adolescents in the vaccination program coupled with activation of moderate NPIs appears necessary to suppress future COVID-19 Delta-like transmission and prevent intensive care unit surge capacity from being exceeded.

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - United States, 2021

BACKGROUND

In Spring 2021, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (Alpha) became the predominant variant in the U.S. Research suggests that Alpha has increased transmissibility compared to non-Alpha lineages. We estimated household secondary infection risk (SIR), assessed characteristics associated with transmission, and compared symptoms of persons with Alpha and non-Alpha infections.

METHODS

We followed households with SARS-CoV-2 infection for two weeks in San Diego County and metropolitan Denver, January to April 2021. We collected epidemiologic information and biospecimens for serology, RT-PCR, and whole genome sequencing. We stratified SIR and symptoms by lineage, and identified characteristics associated with transmission using Generalized Estimating Equations.

RESULTS

We investigated 127 households with 322 household contacts; 72 households (56.7%) had member(s) with secondary infections. SIRs were not significantly higher for Alpha (61.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 52.4-69.0%]) than non-Alpha (55.6% [CI 44.7-65.9%], P = 0.49). In households with Alpha, persons who identified as Asian or Hispanic/Latino had significantly higher SIRs than those who identified as White (P = 0.01 and 0.03, respectively). Close contact (e.g., kissing, hugging) with primary cases was associated with increased transmission for all lineages. Persons with Alpha infection were more likely to report constitutional symptoms than persons with non-Alpha (86.9% vs. 76.8%, P = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Household SIRs were similar for Alpha and non-Alpha. Comparable SIRs may be due to saturation of transmission risk in households owing to extensive close contact, or true lack of difference in transmission rates. Avoiding close contact within households may reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission for all lineages among household members.

Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic

With the presence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic infections detected, their proportion, transmission potential, and other aspects such as immunity and related emerging challenges have attracted people's attention. We have found that based on high-quality research, asymptomatic infections account for at least one-third of the total cases, whereas based on systematic review and meta-analysis, the proportion is about one-fifth. Evaluating the true transmission potential of asymptomatic cases is difficult but critical, since it may affect national policies in response to COVID-19. We have summarized the current evidence and found, compared with symptomatic cases, the transmission capacity of asymptomatic individuals is weaker, even though they have similar viral load and relatively short virus shedding duration. As the outbreak progresses, asymptomatic infections have also been found to develop long COVID-19. In addition, the role of asymptomatic infection in COVID-19 remains to be further revealed as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to emerge. Nevertheless, as asymptomatic infections transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus silently, they still pose a substantial threat to public health. Therefore, it is essential to conduct screening to obtain more knowledge about the asymptomatic infections and to detect them as soon as possible; meanwhile, management of them is also a key point in the fight against COVID-19 community transmission. The different management of asymptomatic infections in various countries are compared and the experience in China is displayed in detail.

COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduces morbidity and absenteeism among healthcare personnel: A prospective multicenter study

Aim

Healthcare personnel (HCP) are prioritized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination to protect them and non-disruptive provision of healthcare services. We assessed the impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on morbidity and absenteeism among HCP.

Methods

We studied 7445 HCP in five tertiary-care hospitals in Greece from November 15, 2020 through April 18, 2021.

Results

A total of 910 episodes of absenteeism and 9695 days of absence were recorded during the entire study period. Starting from January 4, 2021, 4823/7445 HCP (64.8%) were fully or partially vaccinated. Overall, 535 episodes of absenteeism occurred from January 4, 2021 through April 18, 2021, including 309 (57.76%) episodes among 2622 unvaccinated HCP and 226 (42.24%) episodes among 4823 vaccinated HCP (11.8 versus 4.7 episodes of absenteeism per 100 HCP, respectively; p-value < 0.001). The mean duration of absenteeism was 11.9 days among unvaccinated HCP compared with 6.9 days among vaccinated HCP (p-value < 0.001). Unvaccinated HCP more frequently developed acute respiratory infection, influenza-like illness, and COVID-19 (p-values < 0.001 for all comparisons). Vaccine effectiveness for fully vaccinated HCP was estimated at 94.16% [confidence interval (CI): 88.50%-98.05%) against COVID-19, 83.62% (CI: 73.36%-90.38%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection (asymptomatic or COVID-19), and 66.42% (CI: 56.86%-74.15%) against absenteeism.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic had a considerable impact on healthcare workforce. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine significantly reduced morbidity, COVID-19, absenteeism and duration of absenteeism among HCP during a period of high SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the community. It is expected that HCP vaccination will protect them and healthcare services and contain healthcare costs.

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.

METHODS

We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19.

RESULTS

The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8-6.5). The estimated R0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9-2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows.

CONCLUSIONS

Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time.

Using secondary cases to characterize the severity of an emerging or re-emerging infection

The methods to ascertain cases of an emerging infectious disease are typically biased toward cases with more severe disease, which can bias the average infection-severity profile. Here, we conducted a systematic review to extract information on disease severity among index cases and secondary cases identified by contact tracing of index cases for COVID-19. We identified 38 studies to extract information on measures of clinical severity. The proportion of index cases with fever was 43% higher than for secondary cases. The proportion of symptomatic, hospitalized, and fatal illnesses among index cases were 12%, 126%, and 179% higher than for secondary cases, respectively. We developed a statistical model to utilize the severity difference, and estimate 55% of index cases were missed in Wuhan, China. Information on disease severity in secondary cases should be less susceptible to ascertainment bias and could inform estimates of disease severity and the proportion of missed index cases.

Dynamics of Viral Shedding and Symptoms in Patients with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19

We conducted a prospective cohort study at a community facility designated for the isolation of individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 between 10 January and 22 February 2021 to investigate the relationship of viral shedding with symptom changes of COVID-19. In total, 89 COVID-19 adult patients (12 asymptomatic, 16 presymptomatic, 61 symptomatic) were enrolled. Symptom scores, the genomic RNA and subgenomic RNA of SARS-CoV-2 from saliva samples with a cell culture were measured. Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients had a similar viral load to symptomatic patients during the early course of the disease, but exhibited a rapid decrease in viral load with the loss of infectivity. Subgenomic RNA and viable virus by cell culture in asymptomatic patients were detected only until 3 days after diagnosis, and the positivity of the subgenomic RNA and cell culture in symptomatic patients gradually decreased in both from 40% in the early disease course to 13% at 10 days and 4% at 8 days after the symptom onset, respectively. In conclusion, symptomatic patients have a high infectivity with high symptom scores during the early disease course and gradually lose infectivity depending on the symptom. Conversely, asymptomatic patients exhibit a rapid decrease in viral load with the loss of infectivity, despite a similar viral load during the early disease course.

Estimating the latent period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Using detailed exposure information on COVID-19 cases, we estimated the mean latent period to be 5.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.1-5.9 days), shorter than the mean incubation period (6.9 days). Laboratory testing may allow shorter quarantines since 95% of COVID-19 cases shed virus within 10.6 days (95%CI: 9.6-11.6) of infection.

Upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads in symptomatic and asymptomatic children and adults

OBJECTIVES

Studies comparing SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in the upper respiratory tract (URT) between children and adults, either presenting with COVID-19 or asymptomatic have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we conducted a retrospective, single center study to address this issue.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

1,184 consecutive subjects (256 children and 928 adults) testing positive for SARS-COV-2 RNA in nasopharyngeal exudates (NP), of whom 424 (121 children and 303 adults) had COVID-19 and 760 (135 children and 625 adults) were asymptomatic close contacts of COVID-19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing was carried out using the TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific, MS, USA). The AMPLIRUN® TOTAL SARS-CoV-2 RNA Control (Vircell SA, Granada, Spain) was used for estimating SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads (in copies/mL). SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads at the time of laboratory diagnosis (single specimen/patient) were used for comparison purposes.

RESULTS

Median initial SARS-COV-2 RNA load was lower (P=0.094) in children (6.98 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 3.0-11.7) than in adults (7.14 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 2.2.-13.4) with COVID-19. As for asymptomatic individuals, median SARS-CoV-2 RNA load was comparable (P=0.97) in children (6.20 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.8-11.6) and adults (6.48 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.9-11.8). Children with COVID-19 symptoms displayed SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads (6.98 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 3.0-11.7) comparable to their asymptomatic counterparts (6.20 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.8-11.6) (P=0.61). Meanwhile in adults, median SARS-CoV-2 RNA load was significantly higher in symptomatic (7.14 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 2.2.-13.4) than in asymptomatic subjects (6.48 log₁₀ copies/ml; range, 1.9-11.8) (P=<0.001). Overall, a faster URT SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance rate was observed in children than in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on viral load data at the time of diagnosis, our results suggested that SARS-CoV-2 infected children, with or without COVID-19, may display NP viral loads of comparable magnitude to that found in their adult counterparts; However, children may have shorter viral shedding as compared to adults.

Factors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

A previous systematic review and meta-analysis of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that summarized 54 published studies through October 19, 2020, found an overall secondary attack rate (SAR) of 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%). However, the understanding of household secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 is still evolving, and updated analysis is needed.

Objective

To use newly published data to further the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the household.

Data Sources

PubMed and reference lists of eligible articles were used to search for records published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021. No restrictions on language, study design, time, or place of publication were applied. Studies published as preprints were included.

Study Selection

Articles with original data that reported at least 2 of the following factors were included: number of household contacts with infection, total number of household contacts, and secondary attack rates among household contacts. Studies that reported household infection prevalence (which includes index cases), that tested contacts using antibody tests only, and that included populations overlapping with another included study were excluded. Search terms were SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 with secondary attack rate, household, close contacts, contact transmission, contact attack rate, or family transmission.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Meta-analyses were performed using generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall household SAR for SARS-CoV-2, SAR by covariates (contact age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship; index case age, sex, symptom status, presence of fever, and presence of cough; number of contacts; study location; and variant), and SAR by index case identification period.

Results

A total of 2722 records (2710 records from database searches and 12 records from the reference lists of eligible articles) published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021, were identified. Of those, 93 full-text articles reporting household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 were assessed for eligibility, and 37 studies were included. These 37 new studies were combined with 50 of the 54 studies (published through October 19, 2020) from our previous review (4 studies from Wuhan, China, were excluded because their study populations overlapped with another recent study), resulting in a total of 87 studies representing 1 249 163 household contacts from 30 countries. The estimated household SAR for all 87 studies was 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%). Compared with studies from January to February 2020, the SAR for studies from July 2020 to March 2021 was higher (13.4% [95% CI, 10.7%-16.7%] vs 31.1% [95% CI, 22.6%-41.1%], respectively). Results from subgroup analyses were similar to those reported in a previous systematic review and meta-analysis; however, the SAR was higher to contacts with comorbidities (3 studies; 50.0% [95% CI, 41.4%-58.6%]) compared with previous findings, and the estimated household SAR for the B.1.1.7 (α) variant was 24.5% (3 studies; 95% CI, 10.9%-46.2%).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that the household remains an important site of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and recent studies have higher household SAR estimates compared with the earliest reports. More transmissible variants and vaccines may be associated with further changes.

Original Hosts, Clinical Features, Transmission Routes, and Vaccine Development for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has led to public concern worldwide. Although a variety of hypotheses about the hosts of SARS-CoV-2 have been proposed, an exact conclusion has not yet been reached. Initial clinical manifestations associated with COVID-19 are similar to those of other acute respiratory infections, leading to misdiagnoses and resulting in the outbreak at the early stage. SARS-CoV-2 is predominantly spread by droplet transmission and close contact; the possibilities of fecal-oral, vertical, and aerosol transmission have not yet been fully confirmed or rejected. Besides, COVID-19 cases have been reported within communities, households, and nosocomial settings through contact with confirmed COVID-19 patients or asymptomatic individuals. Environmental contamination is also a major driver for the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering the absence of specific treatment for COVID-19, it is urgent to decrease the risk of transmission and take preventive measures to control the spread of the virus. In this review, we summarize the latest available data on the potential hosts, entry receptors, clinical features, and risk factors of COVID-19 and transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2, and we present the data about development of vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 Superspread in Fitness Center, Hong Kong, China, March 2021

To investigate a superspreading event at a fitness center in Hong Kong, China, we used genomic sequencing to analyze 102 reverse transcription PCR–confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Our finding highlights the risk for virus transmission in confined spaces with poor ventilation and limited public health interventions.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a Georgia school district - United States, December 2020-January 2021

BACKGROUND

To inform prevention strategies, we assessed the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and settings in which transmission occurred in a Georgia public school district.

METHODS

During December 1, 2020-January 22, 2021, SARS-CoV-2-infected index cases and their close contacts in schools were identified by school and public health officials. For in-school contacts, we assessed symptoms and offered SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing; performed epidemiologic investigations and whole-genome sequencing to identify in-school transmission; and calculated secondary attack rate (SAR) by school setting (e.g., sports, elementary school classroom), index case role (i.e., staff, student), and index case symptomatic status.

RESULTS

We identified 86 index cases and 1,119 contacts, 688 (63.1%) of whom received testing. Fifty-nine (8.7%) of 679 contacts tested positive; 15 (17.4%) of 86 index cases resulted in ≥2 positive contacts. Among 55 persons testing positive with available symptom data, 31 (56.4%) were asymptomatic. Highest SAR were in indoor, high-contact sports settings (23.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 12.7, 33.3), staff meetings/lunches (18.2%, CI 4.5-31.8), and elementary school classrooms (9.5%, CI 6.5-12.5). SAR was higher for staff (13.1%, CI 9.0-17.2) versus student index cases (5.8%, CI 3.6-8.0) and for symptomatic (10.9%, CI 8.1-13.9) versus asymptomatic index cases (3.0%, CI 1.0-5.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Indoor sports may pose a risk to the safe operation of in-person learning. Preventing infection in staff members, through measures that include COVID-19 vaccination, is critical to reducing in-school transmission. Because many positive contacts were asymptomatic, contact tracing should be paired with testing, regardless of symptoms.