Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Targets Will Not Be Enough to Achieve the HIV Incidence Reduction Target in Australia

Modeling the HIV epidemic in MSM in Cyprus: reaching only the 95-95-95 cascade of care targets fails to reduce HIV incidence by 90% in 2030

National responses should be improved and accelerated to meet the target of ending the Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic by 2030. In the Republic of Cyprus, Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), accounting approximately for half of all annual HIV diagnoses. This study assesses the evolution of HIV incidence in MSM in Cyprus until 2030 using a model calibrated to Cypriot epidemiological data. Four scenarios were examined: status quo, two scenarios focusing on introducing Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), and a 90% HIV incidence reduction scenario. Reaching only the 95-95-95 HIV cascade of care targets among MSM would reduce HIV incidence by 48.6% by 2030 compared to 2015. Initiating a PrEP intervention only for high risk MSM would cause a modest further reduction in HIV incidence. To meet the 90% reduction target, PrEP should be expanded to both high and medium risk MSM and, after 2025, behavioral interventions should be implemented so as high-risk MSM gradually move to the medium-risk category. Cyprus will not reach the HIV incidence reduction target by 2030 unless PrEP is gradually promoted and delivered to all high and medium risk MSM along with awareness and behavioral interventions.

Factors Associated with HIV Testing among Male Students Who Have Engaged in Sexual Behaviour in Zhejiang Province, China

Objective

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing, identify factors associated with HIV testing among male students who have engaged in sexual behaviour in Zhejiang province, and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HIV infection on campus.

Methods

Stratified cluster random sampling analysis was performed, which included general characteristics, sexual attitudes, sexual behaviours, information on HIV testing, and self-risk assessment for HIV infection. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the influencing factors.

Results

Among 2734 male students who have engaged in sexual behaviour, 319 (11.7%) had undergone HIV antibody testing in the previous year. The results of multivariate analysis demonstrated that the participants who were in the junior grade level (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.59, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.10-2.30) exhibited acceptance to male homosexual behaviour (AOR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.19-2.52), had been exposed to testing publicity in the previous year (AOR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06-2.15), had been exposed to self-risk assessment for HIV infection (AOR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.99-3.55), had male or bisexual partners (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.05-2.46), had a score for the scale indicating awareness of different testing methods between 2 and 5 (AOR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.51-3.16) or greater than 6 (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.01-2.66), and had a score for the scale indicating knowledge of different testing facilities between 3 and 5 (AOR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.00-2.66) were inclined to engage in HIV testing.

Conclusions

In this study, the proportion of HIV-testing among male students who have engaged in sexual behaviour was low. This study revealed that students who exhibited acceptance to male homosexual behaviours had been exposed to publicity for HIV testing or a self-risk assessment for HIV infection which were more inclined to engage in HIV testing. Our study underscores the urgent need to enhance educational interventions concerning HIV risks and warnings as part of the health education curriculum on campus. The graveness of the AIDS epidemic among students necessitates this emphasis. Moreover, we recommend deploying condom-dispensing machines or HIV testing facilities across the campus for easy access to preventive and testing services for HIV.

HIV Digital Vaccine Strategy: Proposal for Applying Blockchain in Preventing the Spread of HIV

Background

The HIV epidemic imposes a heavy burden on societal development. Protection of susceptible populations is the most feasible method for eliminating the spread of HIV. In the absence of a biological vaccine, the definitive solution is enabling susceptible populations to recognize and avoid high-risk sexual behavior.

Objective

The objective of this study is to use specific technologies and strategies to establish a system by which high-HIV-risk individuals can determine the HIV infection status of one another anonymously, conveniently, and credibly.

Methods

This study proposes an HIV digital vaccine (HDV) strategy, a decentralized application (Dapp) based on blockchain for use by individuals with a high risk of HIV and accredited testing agencies (ATAs). Following testing, only the HIV-negative results (or linked information) are uploaded to the blockchain, which results in high-risk individuals being able to determine the HIV-negative status of each other anonymously, conveniently, and credibly.

Results

Future work includes the following: (1) a survey of the willingness to use Dapps among high-HIV-risk populations, (2) a larger framework containing both HDV and people living with HIV (PLH) and discussing the influence of HDV on PLH and its possible solutions, and (3) coordinating with the blockchain development team, ATAs, community-based organizations, and third-party organizations to raise funds, develop the Dapp, formulate detailed plans, and publicize and promote it. The exact timeline for achieving these objectives cannot be determined at present.

Conclusions

The HDV strategy may reduce the occurrence of high-risk sexual behavior and effectively protect susceptible populations; combined with current strategies, it is a promising solution to prevent the spread of HIV. The included concepts of decentralized surveillance and surveillance as intervention may spark a change in current infectious disease prevention and control modes to introduce beneficial innovations in public health systems globally.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/37133

Population Impact and Efficiency of Improvements to HIV PrEP Under Conditions of High ART Coverage Among San Francisco Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Key components of Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) plan include increasing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage. One complication to addressing this service delivery challenge is the wide heterogeneity of HIV burden and health care access across the United States. It is unclear how the effectiveness and efficiency of expanded PrEP will depend on different baseline ART coverage.

METHODS

We used a network-based model of HIV transmission for men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Model scenarios increased varying levels of PrEP coverage relative under current empirical levels of baseline ART coverage and 2 counterfactual levels. We assessed the effectiveness of PrEP with the cumulative percentage of infections averted (PIA) over the next decade and efficiency with the number of additional person-years needed to treat (NNT) by PrEP required to avert one HIV infection.

RESULTS

In our projections, only the highest levels of combined PrEP and ART coverage achieved the EHE goals. Increasing PrEP coverage up to 75% showed that PrEP effectiveness was higher at higher baseline ART coverage. Indeed, the PIA was 61% in the lowest baseline ART coverage population and 75% in the highest. The efficiency declined with increasing ART (NNT range from 41 to 113).

CONCLUSIONS

Improving both PrEP and ART coverage would have a synergistic impact on HIV prevention even in a high baseline coverage city such as San Francisco. Efforts should focus on narrowing the implementation gaps to achieve higher levels of PrEP retention and ART sustained viral suppression.

Can HIV epidemics among MSM be eliminated through participation in preexposure prophylaxis rollouts?

OBJECTIVE

To study the conditions under which preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage can eliminate HIV among MSM in the Paris region.

DESIGN

Mathematical modeling.

METHODS

We propose an innovative approach, combining a transmission model with a game-theoretic model, for decision-making about PrEP use. Individuals at high risk of HIV infection decide to use PrEP, depending on their perceived risk of infection and the relative cost of using PrEP versus antiretroviral treatment (ART), which includes monetary and/or nonmonetary aspects, such as price and access model of PrEP, consequences of being infected and lifelong ART.

RESULTS

If individuals assessed correctly their infection risk, and the cost of using PrEP were sufficiently low, then the PrEP rollout could lead to elimination. Specifically, assuming 86% PrEP effectiveness, as observed in two clinical trials, a minimum PrEP coverage of 55% [95% confidence interval (CI) 43-64%] among high-risk MSM would achieve elimination in the Paris region. A complete condom drop by MSM using PrEP slightly increases the minimum PrEP coverage required for elimination, by ∼1%, whereas underestimation of their own HIV infection risk would require PrEP programs reduce the cost of using PrEP by a factor ∼2 to achieve elimination.

CONCLUSION

Elimination conditions are not yet met in the Paris region, where at most 47% of high-risk MSM were using PrEP as of mid-2019. Further lowering the cost of PrEP and promoting a fair perception of HIV risk are required and should be maintained in the long-run, to maintain elimination status.

HIV continuum of care: expanding scope beyond a cross-sectional view to include time analysis: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The continuum of care (CoC) model has been used to describe the main pillars of HIV care. This study aims to systematically review methods and elucidate gaps in the CoC analyses, especially in terms of the timing of the progression through steps, recognized nowadays as a critical parameter for an effective response to the epidemic.

METHODS

A PubMed and EMBASE databases search up to December 2019 resulted in 1918 articles, of which 209 were included in this review; 84 studies presented in major HIV conferences were also included. Studies that did not provide explicit definitions, modelling studies and those reporting only on metrics for subpopulations or factors affecting a CoC stage were excluded. Included articles reported results on 1 to 6 CoC stages.

RESULTS

Percentage treated and virally suppressed was reported in 78%, percentage diagnosed and retained in care in 58%, percentage linked to care in 54% and PLHIV in 36% of the articles. Information for all stages was provided in 23 studies. Only 6 articles use novel CoC estimates: One presents a dynamic CoC based on multistate analysis techniques, two base their time-to-next-stage estimates on a risk estimation method based on the cumulative incidence function, weighted for confounding and censoring and three studies estimated the HIV infection time based on mathematical modelling.

CONCLUSION

A limited number of studies provide elaborated time analyses of the CoC. Although time analyses lack the straightforward interpretation of the cross-sectional CoC, they provide valuable insights for the timely response to the HIV epidemic. A future goal would be to develop a model that retains the simplicity of the cross-sectional CoC but also incorporates timing between stages.

Improvements in transition times through the HIV cascade of care among gay and bisexual men with a new HIV diagnosis in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia (2012-19): a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Most studies assessing the HIV care cascade have typically been cross-sectional analyses, which do not capture the transition time to subsequent stages. We aimed to assess the longitudinal HIV cascade of care in Australia, and changes over time in transition times and associated factors.

METHODS

In this longitudinal cohort study, we included linked data for gay and bisexual men (GBM) with a new HIV diagnosis who attended clinics participating in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance in New South Wales and Victoria between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2019. We assessed three cascade transition periods: diagnosis to linkage to care (stage 1 transition); linkage to care to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (stage 2 transition); and ART initiation to virological suppression (viral load ≤200 copies per mL; stage 3 transition). We also calculated the probability of remaining virologically suppressed after the first recorded viral load of less than 200 copies per mL. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate transition times and cumulative probability of stage transition.

FINDINGS

We included 2196 GBM newly diagnosed with HIV between 2012 and 2019 contributing 6747 person-years of follow-up in our analysis. Median time from HIV diagnosis to linkage to care (stage 1 transition) was 2 days (IQR 1-3). Median time from linkage to care to ART initiation (stage 2 transition) was 33 days (30-35). Median time from ART initiation to first recorded virological suppression (stage 3 transition) was 49 days (47-52). The cumulative probability of ART initiation within 90 days of linkage to care increased from 36·9% (95% CI 32·9-40·6) in the 2012-13 calendar period to 94·1% (91·2-96·0) in the 2018-19 calendar period and cumulative probability of virological suppression within 90 days of ART initiation increased from 54·3% (48·8-59·3) in the 2012-13 calendar period to 82·9% (78·4-86·4) in the 2018-19 calendar period. 91·6% (90·1-93·1) of GBM remained virologically supressed up to 2 years after their first recorded virological suppression event.

INTERPRETATION

In countries with high cross-sectional cascade estimates such as Australia, the impact of treatment as prevention is better estimated using longitudinal cascade analyses.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council Australia.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in 11 European Union Countries at the End of 2016 Overall and by Key Population: Have We Made Progress?

Background

High uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is essential to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and related mortality; however, gaps in care exist. We aimed to construct the continuum of HIV care (CoC) in 2016 in 11 European Union (EU) countries, overall and by key population and sex. To estimate progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, we compared 2016 to 2013 estimates for the same countries, representing 73% of the population in the region.

Methods

A CoC with the following 4 stages was constructed: number of people living with HIV (PLHIV); proportion of PLHIV diagnosed; proportion of those diagnosed who ever initiated ART; and proportion of those ever treated who achieved viral suppression at their last visit.

Results

We estimated that 87% of PLHIV were diagnosed; 92% of those diagnosed had ever initiated ART; and 91% of those ever on ART, or 73% of all PLHIV, were virally suppressed. Corresponding figures for men having sex with men were: 86%, 93%, 93%, 74%; for people who inject drugs: 94%, 88%, 85%, 70%; and for heterosexuals: 86%, 92%, 91%, 72%. The proportion suppressed of all PLHIV ranged from 59% to 86% across countries.

Conclusions

The EU is close to the 90-90-90 target and achieved the UNAIDS target of 73% of all PLHIV virally suppressed, significant progress since 2013 when 60% of all PLHIV were virally suppressed. Strengthening of testing programs and treatment support, along with prevention interventions, are needed to achieve HIV epidemic control.

Evidence of an Association of Increases in Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Coverage With Decreases in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis Rates in the United States, 2012-2016

BACKGROUND

Annual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses in the United States (US) have plateaued since 2013. We assessed whether there is an association between uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and decreases in HIV diagnoses.

METHODS

We used 2012-2016 data from the US National HIV Surveillance System to estimate viral suppression (VS) and annual percentage change in diagnosis rate (EAPC) in 33 jurisdictions, and data from a national pharmacy database to estimate PrEP uptake. We used Poisson regression with random effects for state and year to estimate the association between PrEP coverage and EAPC: within jurisdictional quintiles grouped by changes in PrEP coverage, regressing EAPC on time; and among all jurisdictions, regressing EAPC on both time and jurisdictional changes in PrEP coverage with and without accounting for changes in VS.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2016, across the 10 states with the greatest increases in PrEP coverage, the EAPC decreased 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], -5.2% to -2.9%). On average, across the states and District of Columbia, EAPC for a given year decreased by 1.1% (95% CI, -1.77% to -.49%) for an increase in PrEP coverage of 1 per 100 persons with indications. When controlling for VS, the state-specific EAPC for a given year decreased by 1.3% (95% CI, -2.12% to -.57%) for an increase in PrEP coverage of 1 per 100 persons with indications.

CONCLUSIONS

We found statistically significant associations between jurisdictional increases in PrEP coverage and decreases in EAPC independent of changes in VS, which supports bringing PrEP use to scale in the US to accelerate reductions in HIV infections.

Combination HIV Prevention Strategies Among Montreal Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men in the PrEP Era: A Latent Class Analysis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) became publicly available in Quebec for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in 2013. We used baseline data from Engage, a cohort of GBM recruited by respondent-driven sampling, to examine patterns of combination HIV prevention use among Montreal GBM since PrEP became available. Latent class analysis, stratified by HIV status, was used to categorize GBM by self-reported use of biomedical and behavioural prevention strategies. Correlates of resulting classes were identified using multinomial logistic regression. Among HIV-negative/unknown GBM (n = 968), we identified four classes: low use of prevention (32%), condoms (40%), seroadaptive behaviour (21%), and biomedical (including PrEP; 7%). Those using prevention (condoms, seroadaptive behaviour, and biomedical) had a higher number of anal sex partners and were more likely to report a recent sexually transmitted infection diagnosis. GBM using biomedical prevention also had a higher level of formal education. Among GBM living with HIV (n = 200), we identified three classes: mainly antiretroviral treatment (ART) with viral suppression (53%), ART with viral suppression and condoms (19%), and ART with viral suppression and seroadaptive behaviour (18%). Again, the number of anal sex partners was higher among those using condoms and seroadaptive behaviours. Our findings show antiretroviral-based prevention, either alone or in combination with other strategies, is clearly a component of the HIV prevention landscape for GBM in Montreal. Nevertheless, PrEP uptake remains low, and there is a need to promote its availability more widely.

Could 30 years of political controversy on needle exchange programmes in Sweden contribute to scaling-up harm reduction services in the world?

Aims:

To end the hepatitis and AIDS epidemics in the world by 2030, countries are encouraged to scale-up harm reduction services and target people who inject drugs (PWID). Blood-borne viruses (BBV) among PWID spread via unsterile injection equipment sharing and to combat this, many countries have introduced needle and syringe exchange programmes (NEP), though not without controversy. Sweden’s long, complicated harm reduction policy transition has been deviant compared to the Nordic countries. After launch in 1986, no NEP were started in Sweden for 23 years, the reasons for which are analysed in this study.

Methods:

Policy documents, grey literature and research mainly published in 2000–2017 were collected and analysed using a hierarchical framework, to understand how continuous build-up of evidence, decisions and key events, over time influenced NEP development.

Results:

Sweden’s first NEP opened in a repressive-control drug policy era with a drug-free society goal. Despite high prevalence of BBV among PWID with recurring outbreaks, growing research and key-actor support including a NEP law, no NEP were launched. Political disagreements, fluctuating actor-coalitions, questioning of research, and a municipality veto against NEP, played critical roles. With an individual-centred perspective being brought into the drug policy domain, the manifestation of a dual drug and health policy track, a revised NEP law in 2017 and removal of the veto, Sweden would see fast expansion of new NEP.

Conclusions:

Lessons from the Swedish case could provide valuable insight for countries about to scale-up harm reduction services including how to circumvent costly time- and resource-intensive obstacles and processes involving ideological and individual moral dimensions.

Measuring hepatitis C virus elimination as a public health threat: Beyond global targets

An increasing number of countries are committing to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) targets to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. These include service coverage targets (90% diagnosed and 80% of diagnosed patients treated) and impact targets (80% and 65% reductions in incidence and mortality, respectively, compared to 2015 levels). Currently, a dozen countries are on track to reach 2030 WHO HCV targets. However, while striving for the WHO targets is important, it should be recognized that progress on impact targets is derived from mathematical models projecting decreases in incidence and mortality on a global scale. Despite HCV treatment access in many counties for a number of years, limited empirical data are available to evaluate progress towards elimination. In some countries, substantial incidence and mortality reductions based on reaching the WHO service coverage targets may be unachievable. For example, in countries with ageing hepatitis C-infected populations, even if they have a quality hepatitis C response, high hepatitis C-related morbidity at baseline may not be reversible even with increased HCV treatment uptake and diagnosis. Finally, WHO targets are not necessarily easily or reliably measurable. Measuring relative impact targets requires high-quality data at baseline (ie 2015) and longitudinal data to assess temporal trends. In this commentary, we propose alternative additional measures to track progress on reducing the HCV burden, offer examples where the WHO targets may not be informative or achievable, and potential practical solutions.

Modelling the epidemiologic impact of achieving UNAIDS fast-track 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets in South Africa

UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (-1.73, interquartile range (IQR): -1.42, -2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (-1.4 percentage points, IQR: -0.88, -1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.

Gaps in the HIV diagnosis and care cascade for migrants in Australia, 2013-2017: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Globally, few studies compare progress toward the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Fast-Track targets among migrant populations. Fast-Track targets are aligned to the HIV diagnosis and care cascade and entail achieving 90-90-90 (90% of people living with HIV [PLHIV] diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on treatment, and 90% of those on treatment with viral suppression [VS]) by 2020 and 95-95-95 by 2030. We compared cascades between migrant and nonmigrant populations in Australia.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a serial cross-sectional survey for HIV diagnosis and care cascades using modelling estimates for proportions diagnosed combined with a clinical database for proportions on treatment and VS between 2013-2017. We estimated the number of PLHIV and number diagnosed using New South Wales (NSW) and Victorian (VIC) data from the Australian National HIV Registry. Cascades were stratified by migration status, sex, HIV exposure, and eligibility for subsidised healthcare in Australia (reciprocal healthcare agreement [RHCA]). We found that in 2017, 17,760 PLHIV were estimated in NSW and VIC, and 90% of them were males. In total, 90% of estimated PLHIV were diagnosed. Of the 9,391 who were diagnosed and retained in care, most (85%; n = 8,015) were males. We excluded 38% of PLHIV with missing data for country of birth, and 41% (n = 2,408) of eligible retained PLHIV were migrants. Most migrants were from Southeast Asia (SEA; 28%), northern Europe (12%), and eastern Asia (11%). Most of the migrants and nonmigrants were males (72% and 83%, respectively). We found that among those retained in care, 90% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 95% of those on ART had VS (i.e., 90-90-95). Migrants had larger gaps in their HIV diagnosis and care cascade (85-85-93) compared with nonmigrants (94-90-96). Similarly, there were larger gaps among migrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (84-83-93) compared with nonmigrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (96-92-96). Large gaps were also found among migrants from SEA (72-87-93) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; 89-93-91). Migrants from countries ineligible for RHCA had lower cascade estimates (83-85-92) than RHCA-eligible migrants (96-86-95). Trends in the HIV diagnosis and care cascades improved over time (2013 and 2017). However, there was no significant increase in ART coverage among migrant females (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.08; p = 0.154), nonmigrant females (IRR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.95-1.07; p = 0.71), and migrants from SEA (IRR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.07; p = 0.06) and SSA (IRR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.08; p = 0.11). Additionally, there was no significant increase in VS among migrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (IRR: 1.02; 95% CI 0.99-1.04; p = 0.08). The major limitation of our study was a high proportion of individuals missing data for country of birth, thereby limiting migrant status categorisation. Additionally, we used a cross-sectional instead of a longitudinal study design to develop the cascades and used the number retained as opposed to using all individuals diagnosed to calculate the proportions on ART.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV diagnosis and care cascades improved overall between 2013 and 2017 in NSW and VIC. Cascades for migrants had larger gaps compared with nonmigrants, particularly among key migrant populations. Tracking subpopulation cascades enables gaps to be identified and addressed early to facilitate achievement of Fast-Track targets.

Trends in late and advanced HIV diagnoses among migrants in Australia; implications for progress on Fast-Track targets: A retrospective observational study

Achieving the Joint United Nations Program on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS Fast-Track targets requires additional strategies for mobile populations. We examined trends and socio-demographics of migrants (overseas-born) and Australian-born individuals presenting with late and advanced HIV diagnoses between 2008 and 2017 to help inform public health approaches for HIV testing coverage and linkage to care and treatment.We conducted a retrospective population-level observational study of individuals diagnosed with HIV in Australia and reported to the National HIV Registry. Annual proportional trends in late (CD4+ T-cell count <350 cells/μL) and advanced (CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/μL). HIV diagnoses were determined using Poisson regression.Of 9926 new HIV diagnoses from 2008 to 2017, 84% (n = 8340) were included in analysis. Overall, 39% (n = 3267) of diagnoses were classified as late; 52% (n = 1688) of late diagnoses were advanced. Of 3317 diagnoses among migrants, 47% were late, versus 34% of Australian-born diagnoses (P < .001).The annual proportions of late (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.01) and advanced HIV diagnoses (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.99-1.02) remained constant. Among migrants with late HIV diagnosis, the proportion reporting male-to-male sex exposure (IRR 1.05; 95% CI 1.03-1.08), non-English speaking (IRR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.05), and individuals born in countries in low HIV-prevalence (IRR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00-1.04) increased. However, declines were noted among some migrants' categories such as females, heterosexual exposure, English speaking, and those born in high HIV-prevalence countries.Late HIV diagnosis remains a significant public health concern in Australia. Small declines in late diagnosis among some migrant categories are offset by increases among male-to-male exposures. Reaching the Fast-Track targets in Australia will require targeted testing and linkage to care strategies for all migrant populations, especially men who have sex with men.

Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Methods

The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants.

Results

A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030.

Conclusions

Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.

Monitoring the Control of Sexually Transmissible Infections and Blood-Borne Viruses: Protocol for the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS)

Background

New biomedical prevention interventions make the control or elimination of some blood-borne viruses (BBVs) and sexually transmissible infections (STIs) increasingly feasible. In response, the World Health Organization and governments around the world have established elimination targets and associated timelines. To monitor progress toward such targets, enhanced systems of data collection are required. This paper describes the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS).

Objective

This study aims to establish a national surveillance network designed to monitor public health outcomes and evaluate the impact of strategies aimed at controlling BBVs and STIs.

Methods

ACCESS is a sentinel surveillance system comprising health services (sexual health clinics, general practice clinics, drug and alcohol services, community-led testing services, and hospital outpatient clinics) and pathology laboratories in each of Australia’s 8 states and territories. Scoping was undertaken in each jurisdiction to identify sites that provide a significant volume of testing or management of BBVs or STIs or to see populations with particular risks for these infections (“priority populations”). Nationally, we identified 115 health services and 24 pathology laboratories as relevant to BBVs or STIs; purposive sampling was undertaken. As of March 2018, we had recruited 92.0% (104/113) of health services and 71% (17/24) of laboratories among those identified as relevant to ACCESS. ACCESS is based on the regular and automated extraction of deidentified patient data using specialized software called GRHANITE, which creates an anonymous unique identifier from patient details. This identifier allows anonymous linkage between and within participating sites, creating a national cohort to facilitate epidemiological monitoring and the evaluation of clinical and public health interventions.

Results

Between 2009 and 2017, 1,171,658 individual patients attended a health service participating in ACCESS network comprising 7,992,241 consultations. Regarding those with unique BBV and STI-related health needs, ACCESS captured data on 366,441 young heterosexuals, 96,985 gay and bisexual men, and 21,598 people living with HIV.

Conclusions

ACCESS is a unique system with the ability to track efforts to control STIs and BBVs—including through the calculation of powerful epidemiological indicators—by identifying response gaps and facilitating the evaluation of programs and interventions. By anonymously linking patients between and within services and over time, ACCESS has exciting potential as a research and evaluation platform. Establishing a national health surveillance system requires close partnerships across the research, government, community, health, and technology sectors.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/11028

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for MSM in low HIV incidence places: should high risk individuals be targeted?

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) targeting high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) has been shown to be a cost-effective HIV control measure. However, the approach could be a challenge in low HIV incidence places with a low proportion of high-risk MSM. To examine the impact of PrEP in such setting in Asia, we developed an epidemic model and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis using empirical multicentre clinical and HIV sequence data from HIV-infected MSM in Hong Kong, in conjunction with behavioural data of local MSM. Without PrEP, the HIV incidence (per 100 person-years) would increase from 1.1 to 1.6 between 2011 and 2021. PrEP could avert 3–63% of total new infections in a five-year period (2017–2021), the variability of which depends on the implementation strategies and combination with test-and-treat. However, under current market drug price in 2016, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALYG) of PrEP (USD1583136/QALYG) is almost 3 times higher than test-and-treat intervention alone (USD396874/QALYG). Assuming 93% fall of PrEP drug price and in combination with test-and-treat, putting 30% of MSM on non-targeting PrEP would be more feasible, cost-effective (USD268915/QALYG), and could avert more new infections (40%). PrEP could contribute to HIV epidemic control in a low incidence place.

Shifting the HIV Paradigm from Care to Cure: Proceedings from the Caribbean Expert Summit in Barbados, August 2017

The CCAS EXPERT SUMMIT convened an array of international experts in Barbados on August 27-31, 2017 under the theme "From Care to Cure-Shifting the HIV Paradigm." The Caribbean Cytometry & Analytical Society (CCAS) partnered with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) to deliver a program that reviewed the advances in antiretroviral therapy and the public health benefits accruing from treatment as prevention. Particular emphasis was placed on reexamining stigma and discrimination through a critical appraisal of whether public health messaging and advocacy had kept pace with the advances in medicine. Persistent fear of HIV driving discriminatory behavior was widely reported in different regions and sectors, including the healthcare profession itself; continued fear of the disease was starkly misaligned with the successes of new medical treatments and progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The summit therefore adopted the mantra "Test-Treat-Defeat" to help engage with the public in a spirit of optimism aimed at creating a more conducive environment for persons to be tested and treated and, thereby, help reduce HIV disease and stigma at the individual and community levels.

A tale of two countries: progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia

UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and Fast-Track commitments are presented as precursors to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, through effecting a 90% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths from 2010 levels (HIV epidemic control). Botswana, a low to middle-income country with the third-highest HIV prevalence, and Australia, a low-prevalence high-income country with an epidemic concentrated among men who have sex with men (MSM), have made significant strides towards achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. These two countries provide lessons for different epidemic settings. This paper discusses the lessons that can be drawn from Botswana and Australia with respect to their success in HIV testing, treatment, viral suppression and other HIV prevention strategies for HIV epidemic control. Botswana and Australia are on target to achieving the 90-90-90 targets for HIV epidemic control, made possible by comprehensive HIV testing and treatment programmes in the two countries. As of 2015, 70% of all people assumed to be living with HIV had viral suppression in Botswana and Australia. However, HIV incidence remains above one per cent in the general population in Botswana and in MSM in Australia. The two countries have demonstrated that rapid HIV testing that is accessible and targeted at key and vulnerable populations is required in order to continue identifying new HIV infections. All citizens living with HIV in both countries are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load monitoring through government-funded programmes. Notwithstanding their success in reducing HIV transmission to date, programmes in both countries must continue to be supported at current levels to maintain epidemic suppression. Scaled HIV testing, linkage to care, universal ART, monitoring patients on treatment over and above strengthened HIV prevention strategies (e.g. male circumcision and pre-exposure prophylaxis) will all continue to require funding. The progress that Botswana and Australia have made towards meeting the 90-90-90 targets is commendable. However, in order to reduce HIV incidence significantly towards 2030, there is a need for sustained HIV testing, linkage to care and high treatment coverage. Botswana and Australia provide useful lessons for developing countries with generalized epidemics and high-income countries with concentrated epidemics.