Atypical chest pain in diabetic patients with suspected stable angina: impact on diagnosis and coronary outcomes

Diabetes mellitus and functional limitations among older adults: Evidence from a large, representative Ghanaian aging study

OBJECTIVES

Literature linking diabetes mellitus (DM) to functional status is limited in low- and middle-income countries. Importantly, factors influencing this association are even less understood. This study aims to examine the association of DM with functional limitations (FL) in older adults and to identify potential factors influencing this association.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional analysis, we examined the association between DM and basic and instrumental activities of daily living-related FL in 1201 adults aged ≥50 years from the Aging, Health, Psychological Well-being, and Health-seeking Behavior Study. DM was defined as a self-report of physician diagnosis. The associations were assessed using hierarchical regression estimates and bootstrapping technique via the Hayes PROCESS macro program.

RESULTS

The prevalence of DM and FL was 10.1% and 36.1%, respectively, with OR = 2.50 (95%CI = 1.59-3.92) after accounting for sociodemographic factors, smoking, alcohol use, self-rated health, loneliness, and sleep quality. After full adjustment, polytomous regressions showed that the association of DM with FL increased with the number of FL (i.e., OR = 1.60 for 1-2, OR = 1.88 for 3-5, and OR = 2.0o for >5 FL compared with no FL). However, this association was attenuated after controlling for physical activity (OR = 2.06, 95%CI = 1.28-3.31), hypertension (OR = 1.87, 95%CI = 1.14-2.99), stroke (OR = 1.82, 95%CI = 1.20-2.93), and pain facets (OR = 1.80, 95%CI = 1.04-3.02). PA thus mediated 40.39% of the DM-FL association.

CONCLUSIONS

In this representative study, older adults with DM showed higher odds for FL, and this association was partially explained by physical activity and health variables. Investing in a holistic management approach might be helpful for public health planning efforts to address DM-induced FL in old age.

Ten-year predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients without angina

BACKGROUND

Longstanding cardiovascular risk factors cause major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Major adverse cardiovascular events prediction may improve outcomes. The aim was to evaluate the ten-year predictors of MACE in patients without angina.

METHODS

Patients referred to Inkosi Albert Luthuli Hospital, Durban, South Africa, without typical angina from 2002 to 2008 were collected and followed up for MACE from 2009 to 2019. Survival time was calculated in months. Independent variables were tested with Cox proportional hazard models to predict MACE morbidity and MACE mortality.

RESULTS

There were 525 patients; 401 (76.0%) were Indian, 167 (31.8%) had diabetes at baseline. At 10-year follow up 157/525 (29.9%) experienced MACE morbidity, of whom, 82/525 (15.6%) had MACE mortality. There were 368/525 (70.1%) patients censored, of whom 195/525 (37.1%) were lost to follow up. For MACE morbidity, mean and longest observation times were 102.2 and 201 months, respectively. Predictors for MACE morbidity were age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.025), diabetes (HR = 1.436), Duke Risk category (HR = 1.562) and Ischaemic burden category (HR = 1.531). For MACE mortality, mean and longest observation times were 107.9 and 204 months, respectively. Predictors for MACE mortality were age (HR = 1.044), Duke Risk category (HR = 1.983), echocardiography risk category (HR = 2.537) and Ischaemic burden category (HR = 1.780).

CONCLUSION

Among patients without typical angina, early ischaemia on noninvasive tests indicated microvascular disease and hyperglycaemia, predicting long-term MACE morbidity and MACE mortality.Contribution: Diabetes was a predictor for MACE morbidity but not for MACE mortality; patients lost to follow-up were possibly diabetic patients with MACE mortality at district hospitals. Early screening for ischaemia and hyperglycaemia control may improve outcomes.

Pre-infarction Angina: Time Interval to Onset of Myocardial Infarction and Comorbidity Predictors

Aims

As part of efforts to identify candidates for patient education aimed at decreasing mortality from acute myocardial infarction, we investigated the prevalence of pre-infarction angina and its predictors among comorbidities in patients who were hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods

We conducted a prospective multicenter observational registry of MI patients from 1998 to 2014 (N = 12,093). The present study investigated the prevalence of pre-infarction angina and its predictors among comorbidities with a logistic regression model. Pre-infarction angina was defined as chest pain/oppression observed within 1 month before the onset of MI but which lasted <30 min.

Results

After excluding 976 (8.1%) patients with missing data on pre-infarction angina, 11,117 patients [66.4 ± 12.0 years, 9,096 (75.2%) male] were analyzed. Of these, 5,428 patients (48.8%) experienced pre-infarction angina before the onset of MI, while 5,689 (51.2%) experienced sudden onset of acute MI. Most patients experienced the first episode of angina >6 h before the onset of MI, while 15% did so ≤6 h before. Patients with hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, or a family history of MI had a higher probability of pre-infarction angina than those without. Elderly patients and those with a history of cerebrovascular disease were less likely to experience pre-infarction angina.

Conclusions

Almost half of MI patients in our registry experienced pre-infarction angina before MI onset. Patients with hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, or a family history of MI had a higher probability of experiencing pre-infarction angina than those without.

Comparison of Risk Assessment Strategies for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Chest Pain: A Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Study

BACKGROUND

To compare two risk assessment strategies to identify individuals likely to benefit from further imaging testing in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and stable chest pain (SCP) suspected of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

602 DM patients referred to coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for SCP were included. They were divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the 2016 National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline-determined strategy (NICE strategy) which focused on symptom evaluation and 2019 European Society of Cardiology guideline-determined strategy (ESC strategy) which was based on pretest probability (PTP) sequentially determined by the ESC-PTP estimator and risk factor-weighted clinical likelihood (RF-CL) model, respectively. The associations of clinical outcomes with risk groups and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The NICE and ESC strategy classified 44% and 39% patients into the low-risk group, respectively. Compared to the NICE strategy, the ESC strategy indicated stronger associations between risk groups and events (hazard ratios: 4.24 versus 1.91), intensive clinical management, and a positive NRI (27.71%, p < 0.0001). The application of the RF-CL model ameliorated the underestimation of risk in patients with borderline ESC-PTP, which principally account for the improvement of the ESC strategy.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the NICE strategy, the ESC strategy seemed to be associated with greater efficiency in identifying high risk individuals in patients with DM and SCP.

Relationship between frontal QRS-T duration and the severity of coronary artery disease in who were non-diabetic and had stable angina pectoris

OBJECTIVE

There is a known relationship between frontal-QRS-T (F-QRS-T) angle and coronary artery disease (CAD). This study examined the relationship between F-QRS-T angle changes and CAD severity in patients with stable CAD.

METHODS

A total of 202 patients were included in the study after the implementation of exclusion criteria among 894 patients, who were admitted to the outpatient clinic with stable angina pectoris between September 2018 and September 2019. The F-QRS-T angle calculated on the 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) of the patients (taken in the outpatient clinic), and the CAD severity calculated using the Gensini score in patients undergoing coronary angiography were compared.

RESULTS

Of the patients included in the study, 38.6% were female and 61.4% were male. The mean age was calculated as 60.16±11.27 years, and 52% of the patients had hypertension. There was no difference between the groups in terms of demographic and clinical values. In a comparison of CAD severity and F-QRS-T angles, the F-QRS-T angle was seen to be statistically significantly higher in the severe CAD group [91°° (102/79)] compared to the group with mild CAD [53°° (64/38)]. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, there was a significant association between the F-QRS-T angle (odds ratio=1.09, 95% confidence interval=1.06-1.11, p<0.001) and CAD severity.

CONCLUSION

It seems that CAD severity in patients who were non-diabetic and had stable angina pectoris is associated with the F-QRS-T angle.

Chest pain symptoms differences between diabetes mellitus and non-diabetes mellitus patients with acute coronary syndrome: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Chest pain is considered one of the crucial indicators in detecting acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and one of the most common complaints frequently found in hospitals. Atypical characteristics of chest pain have prevented patients from being aware of ACS. Chest pain symptoms have become ambiguous, particularly for specific parameters, such as gender, diabetes mellitus (DM), or other clinical conditions. Therefore, it is critical for high-risk patients to have adequate knowledge of specific symptoms of ACS, which is frequently associated with late treatment or prehospital delay. Therefore, this study aims to identify the particular characteristics of chest pain symptoms in DM and non-DM patients with ACS.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This is a quantitative and non-experimental research, with the cross-sectional approach used to carry out the analytical observation at a general hospital from January-April 2019. Data were obtained from a total sample of 61 patients, comprising 33 ACS with DM and 28 ACS non-DM patients.

RESULTS

The result showed that the characteristic of patients with chest pain symptoms has a significant relation to DM and ACS. Therefore, non-DM patients with ACS are more likely to feel chest pain at moderate to a severe level, while ACS-DM patients are more likely to have low to moderate chest pain levels.

CONCLUSION

The significant differences in the characteristics of chest pain in DM and non-DM patients suffering from acute coronary syndrome are the points of location of chest pain radiating to the neck and quality of pain.

An analysis of the descriptors of acute myocardial infarction used by South Africans when calling for an ambulance from a private emergency call centre

Introduction

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a time sensitive emergency. In resource limited settings, prompt identification and management of patients experiencing AMI in the pre-hospital setting may minimise the negative consequences associated with overburdened emergency medical and hospital services. Expedited care thus, in part, relies on the dispatch of appropriate pre-hospital medical providers by emergency medical dispatchers. Identification of these patients in call centres is challenging due to a highly diverse South African society, with multiple languages, cultures, and levels of education. The aim of this study was therefore, to describe the terms used by members of the South African public when calling for an ambulance for patients suffering an AMI.

Methods

In this qualitative study, we performed content analysis to identify keywords and phrases that callers used to describe patients who were experiencing an advanced life support (ALS) paramedic-diagnosed AMI. Using the unique case reference number of randomly selected AMI cases, original voice recordings between the caller and emergency medical dispatcher at the time of the emergency were extracted and transcribed verbatim. Descriptors of AMI were identified, coded and categorised using content analysis, and quantified.

Results

Of the 50 randomly selected calls analysed, 5 were not conducted in English. The descriptors used by callers were found to fall into three categories; Pain: Thorax, No pain: Thorax and Ill- health. The code that occurred most often was no pain, heart related (n = 16; 23.2%), followed by the code describing pain in the chest (n = 15; 21.7%).

Conclusion

South African callers use a consistent set of descriptors when requesting an ambulance for a patient experiencing an AMI. The most common of these are non-pain descriptors related to the heart. These descriptors may ultimately be used in developing validated algorithms to assist dispatch decisions. In this way, we hope to expedite the correct level of care to these time- critical patients and prevent the unnecessary dispatch of limitedly available ALS paramedics to inappropriate cases.

Cardiac Computed Tomography for Personalized Management of Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus are increasing in the United States and worldwide. The individual-level risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events in primary prevention populations with type 2 diabetes mellitus is highly heterogeneous. Accurate risk stratification in this group is paramount to optimize the use of preventive therapies. Herein, we review the use of the coronary artery calcium score as a decision aid in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease to guide the use of preventive pharmacotherapies, such as aspirin, lipid-lowering mediations, and cardiometabolic agents. The magnitude of expected risk reduction for each of these therapies must be weighed against its cost and potential adverse events. Coronary artery calcium has the potential to improve risk stratification in select individuals beyond clinical and laboratory risk factors, thus providing a more granular assessment of the expected net benefit with each therapy. In patients with diabetes mellitus and stable chest pain, coronary computed tomography angiography increases the sensitivity for coronary artery disease diagnoses compared with functional studies because of the detection of nonobstructive atherosclerosis. Most importantly, this anatomic approach may improve cardiovascular outcomes by increasing the use of evidence-based preventive therapies informed by plaque burden. We therefore provide an updated discussion of the pivotal role of coronary computed tomography angiography in the workup of stable chest pain in patients with diabetes mellitus in the context of recent landmark trials, such as PROMISE trial (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain), SCOT-HEART trial (Scottish Computed Tomography of the Heart), and ISCHEMIA trial (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches). Finally, we also outline the current role of coronary computed tomography angiography in acute chest pain presentations.

External validation of an emergency department triage algorithm for chest pain patients

BACKGROUND

We aimed to externally validate an emergency department triage algorithm including five hierarchical clinical variables developed to identify chest pain patients at low risk of having an acute coronary syndrome justifying delayed rather than immediate evaluation.

METHODS

In a single-centre cohort enrolling 29,269 consecutive patients presenting with chest pain, the performance of the algorithm was compared against the emergency department discharge diagnosis. In an international multicentre study enrolling 4069 patients, central adjudication by two independent cardiologists using all data derived from cardiac work-up including follow-up served as the reference. Triage towards 'low-risk' required absence of all five clinical 'high-risk' variables: history of coronary artery disease, diabetes, pressure-like chest pain, retrosternal chest pain and age above 40 years. Safety (sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV)) and efficacy (percentage of patients classified as low risk) was tested in this initial proposal (Model A) and in two additional models: omitting age criteria (Model B) and allowing up to one (any) of the five high-risk variables (Model C).

RESULTS

The prevalence of acute coronary syndrome was 9.4% in the single-centre and 28.4% in the multicentre study. The triage algorithm had very high sensitivity/NPV in both cohorts (99.4%/99.1% and 99.9%/99.1%, respectively), but very low efficacy (6.2% and 2.7%, respectively). Model B resulted in sensitivity/NPV of 97.5%/98.3% and 96.1%/89.4%, while efficacy increased to 14.2% and 10.4%, respectively. Model C resulted in sensitivity/NPV of 96.7%/98.6% and 95.2%/91.3%, with a further increase in efficacy to 23.1% and 15.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A triage algorithm for the identification of low-risk chest pain patients exclusively based on simple clinical variables provided reasonable performance characteristics possibly justifying delayed rather than immediate evaluation in the emergency department.

Clinical Impact of Atypical Chest Pain and Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction from Prospective KAMIR-NIH Registry

Atypical chest pain and diabetic autonomic neuropathy attract less clinical attention, leading to underdiagnosis and delayed treatment. To evaluate the long-term clinical impact of atypical chest pain and diabetes mellitus (DM), we categorized 11,159 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from the Korea AMI-National Institutes of Health between November 2011 and December 2015 into four groups (atypical DM, atypical non-DM, typical DM, and typical non-DM). The primary endpoint was defined as patient-oriented composite endpoint (POCE) at 2 years including all-cause death, any myocardial infarction (MI), and any revascularization. Patients with atypical chest pain showed higher 2-year mortality than those with typical chest pain in both DM (29.5% vs. 11.4%, p < 0.0001) and non-DM (20.4% vs. 6.3%, p < 0.0001) groups. The atypical DM group had the highest risks of POCE (hazard ratio (HR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48–2.10), all-cause death (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.80–2.76) and any MI (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.51–3.64) in the adjusted model. In conclusion, atypical chest pain was significantly associated with mortality in patients with AMI. Among four groups, the atypical DM group showed the worst clinical outcomes at 2 years. Application of rapid rule in/out AMI protocols would be beneficial to improve clinical outcomes.

Stress Testing Versus CT Angiography in Patients With Diabetes and Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

BACKGROUND

The optimal noninvasive test (NIT) for patients with diabetes and stable symptoms of coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess whether a diagnostic strategy based on coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) is superior to functional stress testing in reducing adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes (CV death or myocardial infarction [MI]) among symptomatic patients with diabetes.

METHODS

PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) was a randomized trial evaluating an initial strategy of CTA versus functional testing in stable outpatients with symptoms suggestive of CAD. The study compared CV outcomes in patients with diabetes (n = 1,908 [21%]) and without diabetes (n = 7,058 [79%]) based on their randomization to CTA or functional testing.

RESULTS

Patients with diabetes (vs. without) were similar in age (median 61 years vs. 60 years) and sex (female 54% vs. 52%) but had a greater burden of CV comorbidities. Patients with diabetes who underwent CTA had a lower risk of CV death/MI compared with functional stress testing (CTA: 1.1% [10 of 936] vs. stress testing: 2.6% [25 of 972]; adjusted hazard ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.18 to 0.79; p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in nondiabetic patients (CTA: 1.4% [50 of 3,564] vs. stress testing: 1.3% [45 of 3,494]; adjusted hazard ratio: 1.03; 95% confidence interval: 0.69 to 1.54; p = 0.887; interaction term for diabetes p value = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In diabetic patients presenting with stable chest pain, a CTA strategy resulted in fewer adverse CV outcomes than a functional testing strategy. CTA may be considered as the initial diagnostic strategy in this subgroup. (PROspective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain [PROMISE]; NCT01174550).

Chest pain score: a novel and practical approach to angina pectoris. A diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

The chest pain classifications that are currently in use are based on studies that are several decades old. Various studies have indicated that these classifications are not sufficient for determining the origin of chest pain without additional diagnostic tests or tools. We describe a new chest pain scoring system that examines the relationship between chest pain and ischemic heart disease (IHD).

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cross-sectional study conducted in a tertiary-level university hospital and two public hospitals.

METHODS

Chest pain scores were assigned to 484 patients. These patients then underwent a treadmill stress test, followed by myocardial perfusion scintigraphy if necessary. Coronary angiography was then carried out on the patients whose tests had been interpreted as positive for ischemia. Afterwards, the relationship between myocardial ischemia and the test score results was investigated.

RESULTS

The median chest pain score was 2 (range: 0-7) among the patients without IHD and 6 (1-8) among those with IHD. The median score of patients with IHD was significantly higher than that of patients without IHD (P = 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the score had sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 87.5% for detecting IHD.

CONCLUSION

We developed a pre-test chest pain score that uses a digital scoring system to assess whether or not the pain was caused by IHD. This scoring system can be applied easily and swiftly by healthcare professionals and can prevent the confusion that is caused by other classification and scoring systems.

Pseudomyocardial Infarction in a Patient with Severe Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Mild Hyperkalemia

A 48-year-old male with a prior diagnosis of diabetes mellitus presented to the emergency department with malaise and nausea. On work-up, he was found with hyperglycemia and high anion gap metabolic acidosis, with a blood pH < 6.94. A diagnosis of severe diabetic ketoacidosis was established; serum electrolyte analysis showed mild hyperkalemia. On work-up, a 12-lead electrocardiogram was obtained, and it showed an ST-segment elevation on anterior leads that completely resolved with diabetic ketoacidosis treatment. ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction can be a precipitant factor for diabetic ketoacidosis, and evaluation of diabetic patients with suspected myocardial infarction can be challenging since they can present with atypical or little symptoms. Hyperkalemia, which usually accompanies diabetic ketoacidosis, can cause electrocardiographic alterations that are well described, but ST-segment elevation is uncommon. A pseudomyocardial infarction pattern has been described in patients with diabetic ketoacidosis; of note, most of these patients presented severe hyperkalemia. We believe this is of great importance for clinicians because they must be able to recognize those patients that present with electrocardiographic abnormalities secondary to the metabolic alterations and those that can be experiencing actual ongoing ischemia, in order to establish an appropriate and prompt treatment.

Clinical significance of chronic myocardial ischemia in coronary artery disease patients

Myocardial ischemia is considered the cornerstone of the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Although the deleterious effects of myocardial infarction, the maximum expression of ischemia, have been extensively studied and described, the clinical effects of chronic, documented myocardial ischemia are not completely clarified. The first studies that compared therapies for coronary disease focused on the presence of anatomical features and assessed ischemia based on the interpretation of the findings of obstructive atherosclerotic lesions. They suggested that revascularization interventions did not confer any clinical advantage over medical therapy (MT), in terms of cardiac or overall death. Other retrospective studies that were dedicated to assessing the impact of documented stress-induced ischemia on cardiovascular outcomes have suggested a prognostic impact of chronic ischemia. However, this has been questioned in recent studies. Moreover, the previous understanding that chronic ischemia could lead to worsening of ventricular function was not confirmed in a recent study. Thus, the prognostic significance of stress-induced ischemia has been questioned. Regarding treatment options, although some previous analyses have suggested that interventional therapies would reduce cardiovascular events in CAD patients with documented ischemia, recent post-hoc studies and metanalysis have shown distinct results. In this review article, the authors discuss myocardial ischemia, the different responses of the myocardium to ischemic insults, ischemic preconditioning, and the main findings of recent studies about the clinical aspects and treatment of patients with chronic, documented myocardial ischemia.

Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on the Evaluation of Stable Chest Pain Patients: Insights From the PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) Trial

Background

The impact of diabetes mellitus on the clinical presentation and noninvasive test (NIT) results among stable outpatients presenting with symptoms suggestive of coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been well described.

Methods and Results

The PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) trial enrolled 10 003 patients with known diabetic status, of whom 8966 were tested as randomized and had interpretable NIT results (1908 with diabetes mellitus, 21%). Differences in symptoms and NIT results were evaluated using logistic regression. Patients with diabetes mellitus (versus without) were similar in age (median 61 versus 60 years) and sex (female 54% versus 52%), had a greater burden of cardiovascular comorbidities, and had a similar likelihood of nonchest pain symptoms (29% versus 27%). The Diamond‐Forrester/Coronary Artery Surgery Study score predicted that patients with diabetes mellitus (versus without) had similar likelihood of obstructive CAD (low 1.8% versus 2.7%; intermediate 92.3% versus 92.6%; high 5.9% versus 4.7%). Physicians estimated patients with diabetes mellitus to have a higher likelihood of obstructive CAD (low to very low: 28.3% versus 40.1%; intermediate 63.9% versus 55.9%; high to very high 7.8% versus 4.0%). Patients with diabetes mellitus (versus without) were more likely to have a positive NIT result (15% versus 11%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.23; P=0.01).

Conclusions

Stable chest pain patients with and without diabetes mellitus have similar presentation and pretest likelihood of obstructive CAD; however, physicians perceive that patients with diabetes mellitus have a higher pretest likelihood of obstructive CAD, an assessment supported by increased risk of a positive NIT. Further evaluation of diabetes mellitus's influence on CAD assessment is required.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01174550.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and acute myocardial infarction: effects on presentation, management, and outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is a common cause of death in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is a key target for improving outcomes. However, there are concerns that patients with COPD may not have enjoyed the same mortality reductions from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in recent decades as the general population. This has raised questions about differences in presentation, management and outcomes in COPD patients compared to non-COPD patients. The evidence points to an increased risk of death after AMI in patients with COPD, but it is unclear to what extent this is attributable to COPD itself or to modifiable factors including under-treatment with guideline-recommended interventions and drugs. We review the evidence for differences between COPD and non-COPD patients in terms of the presentation of AMI, its treatment, and outcomes both in hospital and in the longer term.

A 10-year prognostic model for patients with suspected angina attending a chest pain clinic

Background and objective

Diagnostic models used in the management of suspected angina provide no explicit information about prognosis. We present a new prognostic model of 10-year coronary mortality in patients presenting for the first time with suspected angina to complement the Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability.

Methods and results

A multicentre cohort of 8762 patients with suspected angina was followed up for a median of 10 years during which 233 coronary deaths were observed. Developmental (n=4412) and validation (n=4350) prognostic models based on clinical data available at first presentation showed good performance with close agreement and the final model utilised all 8762 patients to maximise power. The prognostic model showed strong associations with coronary mortality for age, sex, chest pain typicality, smoking status, diabetes, pulse rate, and ECG findings. Model discrimination was good (C statistic 0.83), patients in the highest risk quarter accounting for 173 coronary deaths (10-year risk of death: 8.7%) compared with a total of 60 deaths in the three lower risk quarters. When the model was simplified to incorporate only Diamond-Forrester factors (age, sex and character of symptoms) it underestimated coronary mortality risk, particularly in patients with reversible risk factors.

Conclusions

For the first time in patients with suspected angina, a prognostic model is presented based on simple clinical factors available at the initial cardiological assessment. The model discriminated powerfully between patients at high risk and lower risk of coronary death during 10-year follow-up. Clinical utility was reflected in the prognostic value it added to the updated Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability.