Future burden of cardiovascular disease in Australia: impact on health and economic outcomes between 2020 and 2029

Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction (MI) remains a major health burden in Australia. Yet the future burden of MI has not been extensively studied for the Australian population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A multistate lifetable model was constructed to estimate the lifetime risk of MI and project the health burden of MI for the Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the model were primarily sourced from the Victorian-linked dataset and supplemented with other national data. The lifetime risk of MI at age 40 was estimated as 24.4% for males and 13.2% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 891 142 Australians were projected to develop incident MI. By 2038, the model estimated there would be 702 226 people with prevalent MI, 51 262 incident non-fatal MI, and 3717 incident fatal MI; these numbers represent a significant increase compared to the 2019 estimates, with a 27.0% (148 827), 62.0% (19 629), and 104.7% (1901) rise, respectively. Projected years of life lived (YLL) (5% discount) accrued by the Australian population was 174 795 232 (84 356 304 in males and 90 438 928 in females), with 7 657 423 YLL among people with MI (4 997 009 in males and 2 660 414 in females).

CONCLUSION

The burden of MI was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to prioritize population-wide prevention strategies to reduce the burden of MI.

The burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high dietary sodium intake in Australia between 1990 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Diets high in sodium are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to quantify the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high dietary sodium consumption in the Australian population.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, we estimated the age-standardised rates (per 100 000 population) and the total numbers of years lived with a disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and deaths for CVD attributable to high sodium (≥1000 mg/day) consumption in the Australian population, by sex and age groups (≥25 years) between 1990 and 2019. The study compared Australian estimates with similar high-income countries (Group of 20 [G20] members).

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates of CVD deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs per 100 000 population in Australia attributable to high sodium decreased. However, between 2013 and 2019, the total number of CVD deaths increased, and the number of CVD YLDs increased exponentially for both sexes for the whole period between 1990 and 2019. Men had a two-fold higher rate for high sodium CVD burden, compared to females between 1990 to 2019. Individuals aged between 80 and 84 years had the highest rates of CVD burden during the same period; however, older age groups reported the greatest decline in CVD burden compared to young and middle-aged adults in Australia. The age-standardised rates for high sodium attributable CVD consistently contributed more towards DALYs than YLDs in 2019 for both sexes. When compared to G20 countries, Australians displayed the lowest age-standardized rates for CVD deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs alongside Turkey, France, and the United Kingdom in 2019.

CONCLUSION

While age-standardized CVD burden attributable to high sodium consumption decreased for both sexes over the past 30 years, the total number of CVD deaths showed an increase between 2013 and 2019. This study underscores the need for sustained efforts to address the rising absolute number of CVD deaths, especially among men and older people, and emphasizes the importance of continued vigilance in monitoring and implementing strategies to reduce the impact of high sodium consumption on cardiovascular health in Australia.

Prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

There is increasing awareness that patients without standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs; diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and smoking) may represent a unique subset of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to investigate the prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with those with SMuRFs.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI Registry. Patients with coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital and 30-day events. Long-term mortality was investigated using Cox-proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2020, 2727/18 988 (14.4%) patients were SMuRF less, with the proportion increasing over time. Mean age was similar for patients with and without SMuRFs (63 years), and fewer females were SMuRF-less (19.8% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). SMuRF-less patients were more likely to present with cardiac arrest (6.6% vs 3.9%, p<0.001) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (59.1% vs 50.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to experience postprocedural cardiogenic shock (4.5% vs 3.6%, p=0.019) and arrhythmia (11.2% vs 9.9%, p=0.029). At 30 days, mortality, myocardial infarction, revascularisation and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events did not differ between the groups. During median follow-up of 7 years, SMuRF-less patients had an adjusted 13% decreased rate of mortality (HR 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.97)).

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of SMuRF-less patients increased over time. Presentation was more often a devastating cardiac event compared with those with SMuRFs. No difference in 30-day outcomes was observed and SMuRF-less patients had lower hazard for long-term mortality.

Advancing Cardiomyocyte Maturation: Current Strategies and Promising Conductive Polymer-Based Approaches

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of mortality and pose a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide. Despite remarkable progress in medical research, the development of effective cardiovascular drugs has been hindered by high failure rates and escalating costs. One contributing factor is the limited availability of mature cardiomyocytes (CMs) for accurate disease modeling and drug screening. Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived CMs offer a promising source of CMs; however, their immature phenotype presents challenges in translational applications. This review focuses on the road to achieving mature CMs by summarizing the major differences between immature and mature CMs, discussing the importance of adult-like CMs for drug discovery, highlighting the limitations of current strategies, and exploring potential solutions using electro-mechano active polymer-based scaffolds based on conductive polymers. However, critical considerations such as the trade-off between 3D systems and nutrient exchange, biocompatibility, degradation, cell adhesion, longevity, and integration into wider systems must be carefully evaluated. Continued advancements in these areas will contribute to a better understanding of cardiac diseases, improved drug discovery, and the development of personalized treatment strategies for patients with cardiovascular disorders.

Future Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Impact on Health Outcomes between 2019 and 2038

BACKGROUND

Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health.

METHODS

First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multistate life table model. Second, a dynamic multistate model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of nonfatal IS, fatal IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses.

RESULTS

The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 644,208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564,922 nonfatal and 79,287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358,534 people with prevalent IS, 35,554 people with incident nonfatal IS and 5,338 people with fatal IS, a 14.2% (44,535), 72.9% (14,988), and 106.3% (2,751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174,782,672 (84,251,360 in males and 90,531,312 in females), with 4,053,794 YLL among people with IS (2,320,513 in males, 1,733,281 in females).

CONCLUSION

The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

Exploring the Evolution of Statin Pricing in Australia: Observations of Price Disclosure Effects on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Expenditure

OBJECTIVES

The high cardiovascular disease burden globally and in Australia necessitates attention on statin expenditure, the primary pharmacological intervention for cardiovascular disease risk factors. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies approved statins for Australians. Managing PBS government expenditure occurs through price control strategies of statutory price decreases upon first generic entry and price disclosure. This study investigates the impact price control measures had on statin price evolution and government expenditure between 2010 and 2022.

METHODS

Prescription and pricing data were obtained from Services Australia Medicare Statistics, and price reduction strategies from the PBS. Summary statistics compared and described statin price, prescription, number of brands, market share, and government expenditure to atorvastatin, fluvastatin, pravastatin, rosuvastatin, and simvastatin price control timelines.

RESULTS

Statin prices exposed to price control measures decreased irrespective of dosage and correlated with reductions in government expenditure, with a comparison of 2010 and 2022 showing annual statin expenditure declined by AU$833.5 million (83.25%) whereas prescriptions reduced by 3.0 million (15.7%). Effects of price disclosure on atorvastatin and rosuvastatin market share suggest industry-prompted price reductions may arise from market share loss, whereas reasons external to pricing prompted rosuvastatin to gain market share.

CONCLUSIONS

Limited publications on contemporary effects of statin price control measures exist. This investigation found these measures reduced government expenditure for statins by AU$949.1 million, with the price reduction correlating with price control measures. In addition to affirming price control mechanisms remain effective in contemporary times, this investigation provides data for key insights into the Australian statin industry.

The contribution of raised blood pressure to all-cause and cardiovascular deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Australia: Analysis of global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2019

AIMS

In a high-income country, Australia, it is unclear how raised systolic blood pressure (SBP) ranks among other risk factors regarding the overall and cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, and whether the situation has changed over time.

METHODS

We analysed the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, with focus on Australia. We assessed ten leading risk factors for all-cause and CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and compared findings with the Australian Burden of Diseases Study.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, raised SBP remained the leading risk factor for attributable all-cause deaths (followed by dietary risks and tobacco use), accounting for 29,056/75,235 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI) [24,863 to 32,915]) deaths in 1990; 21,845/76,893 [17,678 to 26,044] in 2010; and 25,498/90,393 [20,152 to 30,851] in 2019. Contributions of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths for both sexes were 54.0% [45.8 to 61.5] in 1990, 44.0% [36.7 to 51.3] in 2010 and 43.7% [36.2 to 51.6] in 2019, respectively. The contribution of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths declined between 1990 and 2010 but exhibited an increase in males from 2010 onwards, with figures of 52.6% [44.7 to 60.0] in 1990, 43.1% [36.0 to 50.5] in 2010 and 43.5% [35.7 to 51.4] in 2019. The contribution of raised SBP to stroke deaths and DALYs in males aged 25-49 years were higher than other age groups, in excess of 60% and increasing steeply between 2010 and 2019.

CONCLUSION

Raised SBP continues to be the leading risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in Australia. We urge cross-disciplinary stakeholder engagement to implement effective strategies to detect, treat and control raised blood pressure as a central priority to mitigate the CVD burden.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model

AIMS

To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates.

RESULTS

Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)].

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

Cost‑effectiveness of add‑on dapagliflozin for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients without diabetes

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin added to standard of care (SoC) versus SoC in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients from the Qatari healthcare perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A lifetime Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding dapagliflozin to SoC based on the findings of Petrie et al. 2020, which were based on the DAPA-HF trial. The model was constructed based on four health states: "alive with no event", "urgent visit for heart failure", "hospitalization for heart failure", and "dead". The model considered 1,000 hypothetical HFrEF and without T2DM patients using 3-month cycles over a lifetime horizon. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALY) and years of life lived (YLL). Utility and cost data were obtained from published sources. A scenario analysis was performed to replace the transition probabilities of events in people without T2DM with the transition probabilities of events irrespective of T2DM status, based on findings of the DAPA-HF trial. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of the conclusion.

RESULTS

Adding dapagliflozin to SoC was estimated to dominate SoC alone, resulting in 0.6 QALY and 0.8 YLL, at a cost saving of QAR771 (USD211) per person compared with SoC alone, with total healthcare costs of QAR42,413 (USD 11,620) versus 43,184 (USD11,831) per person, respectively. When replacing the transition probabilities of events in people without T2DM with the transition probabilities of events in people irrespective of T2DM status, dapagliflozin was cost-effective at ICER of QAR5,212 (USD1,428) per QALY gained and QAR3,880 (USD1,063) per YLL. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, dapagliflozin combined with SoC was cost saving in over 49% of the cases and cost-effective in over 43% of the simulated cases against QALYs gained and YLL.

LIMITATIONS

Data from clinical trials were used instead of local data, which may limit the local relevance. However, evidence from the local Qatari population is lacking. Also, indirect costs were not included due to a paucity of available data.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding dapagliflozin to SoC is likely to be a cost-saving therapy for patients with HFrEF and without T2DM in Qatar.

Review on Emerging Therapeutic Strategies for Managing Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a foremost global health concern, necessitating ongoing exploration of innovative therapeutic strategies. This review surveys the latest developments in cardiovascular therapeutics, offering a comprehensive overview of emerging approaches poised to transform disease management. The examination begins by elucidating the current epidemiological landscape of CVD and the economic challenges it poses to healthcare systems. It proceeds to scrutinize the limitations of traditional therapies, emphasizing the need for progressive interventions. The core focus is on novel pharmacological interventions, including advancements in drug development, targeted therapies, and repurposing existing medications. The burgeoning field of gene therapy and its potential in addressing genetic predispositions to cardiovascular disorders are explored, alongside the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning in risk assessment and treatment optimization. Non-pharmacological interventions take center stage, with an exploration of digital health technologies, wearable devices, and telemedicine as transformative tools in CVD management. Regenerative medicine and stem cell therapies, offering promises of tissue repair and functional recovery, are investigated for their potential impact on cardiac health. This review also delves into the interplay of lifestyle modifications, diet, exercise, and behavioral changes, emphasizing their pivotal role in cardiovascular health and disease prevention. As precision medicine gains prominence, this synthesis of emerging therapeutic modalities aims to guide clinicians and researchers in navigating the dynamic landscape of cardiovascular disease management, fostering a collective effort to alleviate the global burden of CVD and promote a healthier future.

Absolute cardiovascular risk assessment by Australian early-career general practitioners: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence and associations of general practice registrars' performing absolute cardio-vascular risk (ACVR) assessment (ACVRa).

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study employing data (2017-2018) from the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training project, an ongoing inception cohort study of Australian GP registrars. The outcome measure was whether an ACVRa was performed. Analyses employed univariable and multivariable regression. Analysis was conducted for all patient problems/diagnoses, then for an 'at-risk' population (specific problems/diagnoses for which ACVRa is indicated).

SETTING

Three GP regional training organisations (RTOs) across three Australian states.

PARTICIPANTS

GP registrars training within participating RTOs.

RESULTS

1003 registrars (response rate 96.8%) recorded details of 69 105 problems either with Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait patients aged 35 years and older or with non-Indigenous patients aged 45 years and older. Of these problems/diagnoses, 1721 (2.5% (95% CI 2.4% to 2.6%)) involved an ACVRa. An ACVRa was 'plausibly indicated' in 10 384 problems/diagnoses. Of these, 1228 (11.8% (95% CI 11.2% to 12.4%)) involved ACVRa. For 'all problems/diagnoses', on multivariable analysis female gender was associated with reduced odds of ACVRa (OR 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.68)). There was some evidence for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people being more likely to receive ACVRa (OR 1.40 (95% CI 0.94 to 2.08), p=0.10). There were associations with variables related to continuity of care, with reduced odds of ACVRa: if the patient was new to the registrar (OR 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.75)), new to the practice (OR 0.24 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.38)) or the problem was new (OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.78)); and increased odds if personal follow-up was organised (OR 1.43 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.66)). For 'ACVRa indicated' problems/diagnoses, findings were similar to those for 'all problems/diagnoses'. Association with Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status, however, was significant at p<0.05 (OR 1.60 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.46)) and association with female gender was attenuated (OR 0.88 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.01)).

CONCLUSION

Continuity of care is associated with registrars assessing ACVR, reinforcing the importance of care continuity in general practice. Registrars' assessment of an individual patient's ACVR is targeted to patients with individual risk factors, but this may entail ACVRa underutilisation in female patients and younger age groups.

Cost-utility analysis of a supervised exercise intervention for women with early-stage endometrial cancer

PURPOSE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death after treatment for endometrial cancer (EC). There is clinical evidence that exercise significantly reduces the risks of CVD and cancer recurrence in this population; however, it is unclear whether there is value for money in integrating exercise into cancer recovery care for women treated for EC. This paper assesses the long-term cost-effectiveness of a 12-week supervised exercise intervention, as compared with standard care, for women diagnosed with early-stage EC.

METHOD

A cost-utility analysis was conducted from the Australian health system perspective for a time horizon of 5 years. A Markov cohort model was designed with six mutually exclusive health states: (i) no CVD, (ii) post-stroke, (iii) post-coronary heart disease (CHD), (iv) post-heart failure, (v) post-cancer recurrence, and (vi) death. The model was populated using the best available evidence. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5% annual rate. Uncertainty in the results was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

RESULT

The incremental cost of supervised exercise versus standard care was AUD $358, and the incremental QALY was 0.0789, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD $5184 per QALY gained. The likelihood that the supervised exercise intervention was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD $50,000 per QALY was 99.5%.

CONCLUSION

This is the first economic evaluation of exercise after treatment for EC. The results suggest that exercise is cost-effective for Australian EC survivors. Given the compelling evidence, efforts could now focus on the implementation of exercise as part of cancer recovery care in Australia.

Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022-2031

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to project the health and economic outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes from Australian public healthcare and societal perspectives over the next decade.

METHODS

A dynamic multistate model with yearly cycles was developed to project cardiovascular events among Australians with type 2 diabetes aged 40-89 years from 2022 to 2031. CVD risk (myocardial infarction [MI] and stroke) in the type 2 diabetes population was estimated using the 2013 pooled cohort equation, and recurrent cardiovascular event rates in the type 2 diabetes with established CVD population were obtained from the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Costs and utilities were derived from published sources. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total healthcare costs, and total productivity losses. The annual discount rate was 5%, applied to outcomes and costs.

RESULTS

Between 2022 and 2031, a total of 83,618 non-fatal MIs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 83,170-84,053) and 58,774 non-fatal strokes (95% UI 58,458-59,013) were projected. Total years of life lived and QALYs (discounted) were projected to be 9,549,487 (95% UI 9,416,423-9,654,043) and 6,632,897 (95% UI 5,065,606-7,591,679), respectively. Total healthcare costs and total lost productivity costs (discounted) were projected to be 9.59 billion Australian dollars (AU$) (95% UI 1.90-30.45 billion) and AU$9.07 billion (95% UI 663.53 million-33.19 billion), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD in people with type 2 diabetes will substantially impact the Australian healthcare system and society over the next decade. Future work to investigate different strategies to optimize the control of risk factors for the prevention and treatment of CVD in type 2 diabetes in Australia is warranted.

Lost Therapeutic Benefit of Delayed Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Control in Statin-Treated Patients and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Lipid-Lowering Intensification

OBJECTIVES

Attainment of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) therapeutic goals in statin-treated patients remains suboptimal. We quantified the health economic impact of delayed lipid-lowering intensification from an Australian healthcare and societal perspective.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov cohort model (n = 1000) estimating the impact on coronary heart disease (CHD) of intensifying lipid-lowering treatment in statin-treated patients with uncontrolled LDL-C, at moderate to high risk of CHD with no delay or after a 5-year delay, compared with standard of care (no intensification), starting at age 40 years. Intensification was tested with high-intensity statins or statins + ezetimibe. LDL-C levels were extracted from a primary care cohort. CHD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equation. The effect of cumulative exposure to LDL-C on CHD risk was derived from Mendelian randomization data. Outcomes included CHD events, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), healthcare and productivity costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). All outcomes were discounted annually by 5%.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, compared with standard of care, achieving LDL-C control with no delay with high-intensity statins prevented 29 CHD events and yielded 30 extra QALYs (ICERs AU$13 205/QALY) versus 22 CHD events and 16 QALYs (ICER AU$20 270/QALY) with a 5-year delay. For statins + ezetimibe, no delay prevented 53 CHD events and gave 45 extra QALYs (ICER AU$37 271/QALY) versus 40 CHD events and 29 QALYs (ICER of AU$44 218/QALY) after a 5-year delay.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying attainment of LDL-C goals translates into lost therapeutic benefit and a waste of resources. Urgent policies are needed to improve LDL-C goal attainment in statin-treated patients.

Cardiovascular disease prevention and management in the COVID-19 era and beyond: An international perspective

Despite some indicators of a localized curtailing of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence, CVD remains one of the largest contributors to global morbidity and mortality. While the magnitude and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have yet to be realized in its entirety, an unquestionable impact on global health and well-being is already clear. At a time when the global state of CVD is perilous, we provide a continental overview of prevalence data and initiatives that have positively influenced CVD outcomes. What is clear is that despite attempts to address the global burden of CVD, there remains a lack of collective thinking and approaches. Moving forward, a coordinated global infrastructure that, if developed with appropriate and relevant key stakeholders, could provide significant and longstanding benefits to public health and yield prominent and consistent policy resulting in impactful change. To achieve global impact, research priorities that address multi-disciplinary social, environmental, and clinical perspectives must be underpinned by unified approaches that maximize public health.

Projected New-Onset Cardiovascular Disease by Socioeconomic Group in Australia

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status has an important effect on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data on the economic implications of CVD by socioeconomic status are needed to inform healthcare planning.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to project new-onset CVD and related health economic outcomes in Australia by socioeconomic status from 2021 to 2030.

METHODS

A dynamic population model was built to project annual new-onset CVD by socioeconomic quintile in Australians aged 40-79 years from 2021 to 2030. Cardiovascular risk was estimated using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) from Australian-specific data, stratified for each socioeconomic quintile. The model projected years of life lived, quality- adjusted life-years (QALYs), acute healthcare medical costs, and productivity losses due to new-onset CVD. All outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

RESULTS

PCE estimates showed that 8.4% of people in the most disadvantaged quintile were at high risk of CVD, compared with 3.7% in the least disadvantaged quintile (p < 0.001). From 2021 to 2030, the model projected 32% more cardiovascular events in the most disadvantaged quintile compared with the least disadvantaged (127,070 in SE 1 vs. 96,222 in SE 5). Acute healthcare costs in the most disadvantaged quintile were Australian dollars (AU$) 183 million higher than the least disadvantaged, and the difference in productivity costs was AU$959 million. Removing the equity gap (by applying the cardiovascular risk from the least disadvantaged quintile to the whole population) would prevent 114,822 cardiovascular events and save AU$704 million of healthcare costs and AU$3844 million of lost earnings over the next 10 years.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight the pressing need to implement primary prevention interventions to reduce cardiovascular health inequity. This model provides a platform to incorporate socioeconomic status into health economic models by estimating which interventions are likely to yield more benefits in each socioeconomic quintile.

Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach

Purpose

In France, myocardial infarction (MI) was the second leading cause of years of life lost in 2019. Estimating the burden of MI in future years could help policymakers and other actors anticipate care and prevention needs and guide them in public health decision-making.

Materials and Methods

Using data from the French hospital discharge database from 2007 to 2015 (n = 519,400), demographic data, and an illness-death model, we projected incidence, prevalence, number of prevalent cases and mean age of incident MI cases in France. The methodology took into account the age-cohort effect on MI incidence, mortality of healthy and diseased subjects, and the time since disease onset.

Results

Projections highlighted an increase in MI prevalence in men between 2015 and 2035 from 2.52% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): [2.48-2.56]) in 2015 to 4.02% ([3.92-4.12]) in 2035, and from 0.85% ([0.83-0.87]) to 1.44% ([1.38-1.50]) in women. This corresponds to an increase of 365,000 cases between 2015 and 2035 (+81.1%) for men and 146,000 cases for women (+88.0%). The difference in the mean age of incident cases between men and women decreased from 9.52 in 2015 to 5.49 years in 2035.

Conclusion

Our projections forecast an increase in MI prevalence between 2015 and 2035 in men and women, especially in relatively younger women. Using statistical models such as ours can help assess the impact of prevention campaigns for the main cardiovascular disease risk factors on the future MI prevalence.

Population genomic screening of young adults for familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering population genomic screening to all young adults in Australia to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We designed a decision analytic Markov model to compare the current standard of care for heterozygous FH diagnosis in Australia (opportunistic cholesterol screening and genetic cascade testing) with the alternate strategy of population genomic screening of adults aged 18-40 years to detect pathogenic variants in the LDLR/APOB/PCSK9 genes. We used a validated cost-adaptation method to adapt findings to eight high-income countries. The model captured coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity/mortality over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare and societal perspectives. Risk of CHD, treatment effects, prevalence, and healthcare costs were estimated from published studies. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore the impact of key input parameters on the robustness of the model. Over the lifetime of the population (4 167 768 men; 4 129 961 women), the model estimated a gain of 33 488years of life lived and 51 790 QALYs due to CHD prevention. Population genomic screening for FH would be cost-effective from a healthcare perspective if the per-test cost was ≤AU$250, yielding an ICER of <AU$28 000 per QALY gained. From a societal perspective, population genomic screening would be cost-saving. ICERs from societal perspective remained cost-saving after adaptation to other countries.

CONCLUSION

Based on our model, offering population genomic screening to all young adults for FH could be cost-effective, at testing costs that are feasible.