Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation

Predictors of left atrial appendage thrombus in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cardioversion

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter represent the most prevalent clinically significant cardiac arrhythmias. While the CHA2DS2-VASc score is commonly used to inform anticoagulation therapy decisions for patients with these conditions, its predictive power is limited. Therefore, we sought to improve risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT), a known risk factor for stroke in these patients.

METHODS

We developed and validated an explainable machine learning model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm with 5 × 5 nested cross-validation. The primary outcome was to predict the probability of LAAT in patients with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter who underwent transesophageal echocardiogram prior to cardioversion. Our algorithm used 37 demographic, comorbid, and transthoracic echocardiographic variables.

RESULTS

A total of 795 patients were included in our analysis. LAAT was present in 11.3% of the patients. The average age of patients was 63.3 years and 34.7% were women. Patients with LAAT had significantly lower left ventricular ejection fraction (29.9% vs 43.5%; p < 0.001), lower E' lateral velocity (5.7 cm vs. 7.9 cm; p < 0.001) and higher E/A ratio (2.6 vs 1.8; p = 0.002). Our machine learning model achieved a high AUC of 0.79, with a high specificity of 0.82, and modest sensitivity of 0.57. Left ventricular ejection fraction was the most important variable in predicting LAAT. Patients were split into 10 buckets based on the percentile of their predicted probability of having thrombus. The lower the percentile (e.g., 10%), the lower the probability of having thrombus. Using a cutoff point of 0.16 which includes 10.0% of the patients, we can rule out thrombus with 100% confidence.

CONCLUSION

Using machine learning, we refined the predictive power of predicting LAAT and explained the model. These results show promise in providing better guidance for anticoagulation therapy and cardioversion in AF and AFL patients.

Chinese guidelines for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of the guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice timely and fully, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2‑VASc‑60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of the Asian AF population. The guidelines also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice in a timely and comprehensive manner, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of the Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of the Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering have jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines have comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2-VASc-60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of AF in the Asian population. The guidelines have also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Real-World Data on the Incidence of Stroke, Myocardial Infarction, and Mortality Among Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients in Türkiye: New Oral Anticoagulants-TURKey Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is strongly associated with an increased risk of ischemic events. Anticoagulation focuses on reducing the risk of embolism. Guideline recommended CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system is most widely used; however, different scoring systems do exist. Thus, we sought to assess the impact of anticoagulant treatment and different scoring systems on the development of stroke, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality in patients with nonvalvular AF.

METHODS

The present study was designed as a prospective cohort study. The enrollment of the patients was conducted between August 1, 2015, and January 1, 2016. The follow-up period was defined as the time from enrollment to the end of April 1, 2017, which also provided at least 12 months of prospective follow-up for each patient.

RESULTS

A total of 1807 patients with AF were enrolled. During the follow-up, 2.7% (48) of patients had stroke, 0.8% (14) had myocardial infarction, and 7.5% (136) died. The anticoagulation and risk factors in AF (ATRIA) score had a better accuracy for the prediction of stroke compared to other scoring systems (0.729, 95% CI, 0.708-0.750, P <.05). Patients under low-dose rivaroxaban treatment had significantly worse survival (logrank P <.001). Age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, R2CHADS2 score, ATRIA score, chronic heart failure, prior stroke, and being under low-dose rivaroxaban treatment were independent predictors of clinical endpoint (P <.001).

CONCLUSION

Low-dose rivaroxaban treatment was independently and strongly associated with the combined clinical endpoint. Furthermore, the ATRIA score proved to be a stronger predictor of stroke in the Turkish population.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

External Validation of the HELT-E2S2 Score in Japanese Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation - A Pooled Analysis of the RAFFINE and SAKURA Registries

BACKGROUND

The HELT-E2S2score, which assigns 1 point to Hypertension, Elderly aged 75-84 years, Low body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, and Type of atrial fibrillation (AF: persistent/permanent), and 2 points to Extreme Elderly aged ≥85 years and previous Stroke, has been proposed as a new risk stratification for strokes in Japanese AF patients, but has not yet undergone external validation.Methods and Results: We evaluated the prognostic performance of the HELT-E2S2score for stroke risk stratification using 2 large-scale registries in Japanese AF patients (n=7,020). During 23,241 person-years of follow-up (mean follow-up 1,208±450 days), 287 ischemic stroke events occurred. The C-statistic using the HELT-E2S2score was 0.661 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.629-0.692), which was numerically higher than with the CHADS2score (0.644, 95% CI 0.613-0.675; P=0.15 vs. HELT-E2S2) or CHA2DS2-VASc score (0.650, 95% CI, 0.619-0.680; P=0.37 vs. HELT-E2S2). In the SAKURA AF Registry, the C-statistic of the HELT-E2S2score was consistently higher than the CHADS2and CHA2DS2-VASc scores across all 3 types of facilities comprising university hospitals, general hospitals, and clinics. However, in the RAFFINE Study, its superiority was only observed in general hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The HELT-E2S2score demonstrated potential value for risk stratification, particularly in a super-aged society such as Japan. However, its superiority over the CHADS2or CHA2DS2-VASc scores may vary across different hospital settings.

Anticoagulant Treatment in Patients with AF and Very High Thromboembolic Risk in the Era before and after the Introduction of NOAC: Observation at a Polish Reference Centre

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke. Therefore, patients with AF require appropriate management and anticoagulant therapy. To balance therapy risks and benefits, oral anticoagulants (OAC) treatment should be 'tailored' in patients at a high risk of stroke and bleeding. However, some studies have demonstrated that certain groups of patients do not receive anticoagulants despite the high risk of stroke or thromboembolism. The study aimed to analyse therapeutic methods of stroke prevention in very high-risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥5 in men and ≥6 in women), identify factors predisposing against the use of OACs and assess the administration of anticoagulants before the introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist OAC (NOAC) in 2004-2011 and beyond (years 2012-2019). The analysis covered 2441 patients with AF at a very high thromboembolic risk who were hospitalised in a reference cardiological centre from 2004 to 2019. Data concerning patients' sex, age, comorbidities, type of AF, renal and echocardiographic parameters, reasons for hospitalisation and applied treatment were collected from medical records. HAS-BLED, CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated for all patients. The treatment with oral anticoagulants was compared in the entire population over 2004-2011 and 2012-2019. In this study, a fifth of patients were not treated with OAC. Most patients hospitalised in the years 2012-2019 were treated with OAC. The predictors of not using OAC turned out to be: age of >74 years, heart failure, cancer, paroxysmal AF, and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or elective coronary angiography/percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) as a reason for hospitalisation. The introduction of NOAC was associated with a decline in the use of VKA (from 62% to 19.1%) and APT (from 29.1% to 1.3%). This study outlines reasons to initiate OAC treatment in very high-risk patients in clinical practice.

Copy number variation of gasdermin D gene is associated with atrial fibrillation-related thromboembolic stroke

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the major causes of ischaemic stroke. In addition to clinical risk evaluated by the CHA2DS2-VASC score, the impact of genetic factors on the risk of AF-related thromboembolic stroke has been largely unknown. We found several copy number variations (CNVs) in novel genes that were associated with thromboembolic stroke risk in our AF patients by genome-wide approach. Among them, the gasdermin D (GSDMD) gene was related to inflammation. We aimed to test whether GSDMD deletion was associated with AF-related stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 400 patients with documented non-familial AF were selected, of which 100 patients were diagnosed with ischaemic stroke. The baseline characteristics of age, sex, valvular heart disease, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were not statistically different between cases and controls. We found that individuals who carried GSDMD homozygous deletion genotype had a higher risk for ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 2.195; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-3.90; P = 0.007), even adjusted by CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We also validated the association of GSDMD with AF stroke in a large Caucasian population (UK Biobank).

CONCLUSION

We found a link between the homozygous deletion of the GSDMD gene and an increased risk of stroke in patients with AF. This may implicate the use of therapy targeting GSDMD in the prevention of ischaemic stroke for AF patients.

A Survey of Saudi General Practitioners on the Use of Thromboprophylaxis Guidelines and Risk Assessment Tools in Atrial Fibrillation

Clinical practice guidelines advise patients with atrial fibrillation who are at risk for stroke to undergo thromboprophylaxis with oral anticoagulants. However, it is noted that guidelines are not always followed. We sought to learn how Saudi Arabian general practitioners (GPs) self-reported using risk assessment tools and atrial fibrillation clinical practice guidelines created by cardiology associations, as well as how GPs felt about the resources that were available. Through the use of a self-administered questionnaire, we carried out a cross-sectional survey. A total of two-hundred GPs participated in the study. The guidelines were frequently used when a clinical decision regarding anticoagulation therapy appeared difficult (n = 57, 28.4%). The most predominant strengths of participants' chosen clinical guidelines were clear recommendations (n = 56, 27.9%), easy-to-follow algorithms (n = 39, 16.9%), detailed recommendations supported by evidence (n = 34, 16.9%), and online availability (n = 27, 13.4%). Many respondents said they used a formal stroke risk assessment tool in addition to their clinical judgment as a GP for most decisions (60%). Most respondents preferred using the CHA2DS2-VASc (n = 106, 52.7%), CHA2DS2-VA (n = 45, 22.4%), CHADS2 (n = 35, 17.4%), and GARFIELD (n = 14, 7.0%). HAS-BLED (n = 100, 49.8%) and HEMORR2HAGES (n = 50, 24.9%) were the most frequently utilized formal tools for assessing the risk of bleeding among GPs. Over half of the participants referred to guidelines when deciding thromboprophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation. Additionally, many respondents used formal procedures for assessing the risks of bleeding and stroke in addition to their clinical judgement in their roles as GPs. The guideline was assessed as being extremely helpful overall by GPs who used it to make thromboprophylaxis decisions.

microRNAs as biomarkers of risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is a complex and multifactorial disease. Although prophylactic anticoagulation has great benefits in avoiding comorbidities, adverse cardiovascular events still occur and thus in recent decades, many resources have been invested in the identification of useful markers in the prevention of the risk of MACE in these patients. As such, microRNAs, that are small non-coding RNAs whose function is to regulate gene expression post-transcriptionally, have a relevant role in the development of MACE. miRNAs, have been investigated for many years as potential non-invasive biomarkers of several diseases. Different studies have shown their utility in the diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases. In particular, some studies have associated the presence of certain miRNAs in plasma with the development of MACE in AF. Despite these results, there are still many efforts to be done to allow the clinical use of miRNAs. The lack of standardization concerning the methodology in purifying and detecting miRNAs, still provides contradictory results. miRNAs also have a functional impact in MACE in AF through the dysregulation of immunothrombosis. Indeed, miRNAs may be a link between MACE and inflammation, through the regulation of neutrophil extracellular traps that are a key element in the establishment and evolution of thrombotic events. The use of miRNAs as therapy against thromboinflammatory processes should also be a future approach to avoid the occurrence of MACE in atrial fibrillation.