Incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland-impact of the TraP HepC nationwide HCV elimination program

OBJECTIVE

In 2016, a nationwide elimination program for hepatitis C virus (HCV) was initiated in Iceland, entitled Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C (TraP HepC), providing unrestricted access to antiviral treatment. The aims were to describe the changes in etiology and epidemiology of cirrhosis in Iceland and to assess the trends in HCV-related cirrhosis following TraP HepC.

METHODS

The study included all patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis in 2016-2022. Diagnosis was based on liver elastography, histology, or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, or elevated international normalized ratio (INR).

RESULTS

Over the study period, 342 new cirrhosis patients were identified, 223 (65%) males, median age 62 years. The crude overall incidence was 13.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. The most common etiologies were alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) (40%), metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) (28%), and HCV with or without alcohol overconsumption (15%). The number of HCV cirrhosis cases was unusually high in 2016 (n = 23) due to intensified case-finding, but decreased significantly over the study period (p < 0.001) to n = 1 (2021) and n = 2 (2022). The overall 5-year survival was 55% (95% CI 48.9-62.3%). The most common causes of death were hepatocellular carcinoma (26%) and liver failure (25%).

CONCLUSION

During the past two decades, the incidence of cirrhosis has increased extraordinarily in Iceland, associated with increased alcohol consumption, obesity, and HCV. ALD and MASLD now collectively make up two thirds of cases in Iceland. Following a nationwide elimination program, incidence of HCV cirrhosis has dropped rapidly in Iceland.

Increase in the incidence of alcoholic pancreatitis and alcoholic liver disease in Iceland: impact of per capita alcohol consumption

Objective: To analyze the incidence of acute alcoholic pancreatitis and of severe alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and its association with per capita alcohol consumption with identification of both alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) and severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH), in a population-based setting.Methods: A search was undertaken in diagnoses database for diagnostic codes in order to find patients hospitalized with incident acute alcoholic pancreatitis (AP) and alcoholic liver disease in Iceland in 2001-2015. Diagnoses were verified in all patients who were retrospectively reviewed. Those with ALD had either AC or AH. Alcohol sales during the study period were obtained from Statistics Iceland.Results: Overall, 273 patients with acute AP, mean age at diagnosis 50 (14) years, 74% males and 159 patients with ALD, mean age 57 (11) years, 73% males, were identified. Mean per capita alcohol consumption was 6.95 (0.4) liters and increased by 21% over the study period. The annual incidence of AP increased from 4.2 per 100.000 to 9.5 and ALD from 1.6 to 6.1 per 100.000. Trend analysis showed a significant annual increase of 7% (RR 1.07, 95%CI 1.04-1.10) for AP and an annual increase of 10.5% (RR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06-1.15) for ALD. The increase was only significant in males.Conclusions: Increase per capita alcohol consumption over a 15 year study period was associated with an increase in the incidence of severe alcoholic liver disease and alcohol-related acute pancreatitis in males but not in females.

Epidemiology of Alcohol Consumption and Societal Burden of Alcoholism and Alcoholic Liver Disease

Alcohol abuse is a major determinant of public health outcomes. Worldwide data from 2016 indicate that alcohol is the seventh leading risk factor in terms of disability-adjusted life years, an increase of more than 25% from 1990 to 2016. Understanding the epidemiology of alcoholic liver disease, including the regional variations in consumption and public policy, is an area of active research. In countries where the per capita consumption of alcohol decreases, there appears to be an associated decrease in disease burden. Given alcohol's health burden, an increased focus on alcohol control policies is needed.

Alcohol prices, taxes, and alcohol-related harms: A critical review of natural experiments in alcohol policy for nine countries

OBJECTIVE

Evidence for alcohol-price policy relies heavily on aggregate econometric studies for the United States. Prior reviews of prices and alcohol-related harms include only a few studies based on natural experiments. This study provides a comprehensive review of natural experiments for a wide variety of harms from studies published during 2003 to 2015. We examine policy changes that importantly affected alcohol taxes and prices, and related changes in availability.

METHODS

Forty-five studies met inclusion criteria, covering nine countries: Australia, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Iceland, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Some studies cover more than one harm or country, and there are 69 outcomes for review. Summaries are provided for five outcome groups: alcohol-related mortality and hospitalizations; assaults and other crime; drink-driving; intoxication; and survey-indexes for dependency. The review notes both positive/mixed results and negative/null results.

RESULTS

Findings indicate that changes in taxes and prices have selective effects on harms. Mortality outcomes are positive for liver disease and older persons, especially in Finland and Russia. Mostly null results for assaults and drink-driving are found for five countries. Intoxication results for Nordic countries are mixed for selective subpopulations. Results for survey indexes are mixed, with no strong pattern of outcomes within or across countries.

CONCLUSION

Prior reviews stress taxes as a comprehensive and cost-effective intervention for addressing alcohol-related harms. A review of natural experiments indicates the confidence placed on this measure is too high, and natural experiments in alcohol policy had selective effects on various subpopulations.

The global burden of liver disease: a challenge for methods and for public health

New Global Burden of Disease estimates for liver cirrhosis, published in BMC Medicine, suggest that cirrhosis caused over a million deaths in 2010, with a further million due to liver cancer and acute hepatitis. Cause-specific mortality data were very sparse for some regions, particularly in Africa, with no relevant mortality data for 58/187 countries. Liver disease involves infectious, malignant and chronic aetiologies with overlapping symptoms. Where available mortality data come from verbal autopsies, separating different types of liver disease is challenging. Cirrhosis is a disease of rich and poor alike; key public health risk factors such as alcohol consumption play an important role. Risk-reduction strategies such as controlling the price of alcohol are being widely discussed. Since these estimates used alcohol consumption as a covariate, they cannot be used to explore relationships between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis mortality. There is hope: coming generations of adults will have been vaccinated against hepatitis B, and this is envisaged to reduce the burden of fatal liver disease. But more complete civil registration globally is needed to fully understand the burden of liver disease.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/12/145/abstract.