Temperature, housing, deprivation and their relationship to excess winter mortality in Great Britain, 1986-1996

Biometeorological conditions during cold spells in south-east Poland and west Ukraine

The aim of this research is to analyze the biometeorological conditions, based on the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) thermal index, during cold spells (CSs) in south-east Poland and west Ukraine during the years 1966-2021. The research shows a high variability of the occurrence of CSs in the study period and a clear increase in the frequency and total duration of CSs in the east of the study area. The number of CSs in the analyzed years varies from 6 cases in the west (in Katowice) to 34 in the east of the study area (in Shepetivka). The total duration of CSs varied from 26 days (in Raciborz and Katowice) to 166 days (in Rivne). At the majority of stations, CSs occurred most frequently in the first two decades (1966/1967-1975/1976, 1976/1977-1985/986) and in the last full decade (2006/2007-2015/2016). The average PET values at 12:00 UTC during CSs decreased eastwards throughout the study domain and were generally lower than -20.0 °C in the west of Ukraine, while in south-east Poland varied between -18.1 and -20.0 °C. At 40% of stations across the study domain, the lowest average PET values were recorded during a cold spell in January 1987, with PET values varying from -28.0 °C in Chernivtsi to -12.7 °C in Yaremche. The longest or one of the longest spells in most stations (in 77% of stations across the study domain) was the cold spell of 2012 and characterized by mean PET values ranging from -25.4 °C in Rivne to -19.5 °C in Zakopane.

Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland

Heat- and cold-related mortality risks are highly variable across different geographies, suggesting a differential distribution of vulnerability factors between and within countries, which could partly be driven by urban-to-rural disparities. Identifying these drivers of risk is crucial to characterize local vulnerability and design tailored public health interventions to improve adaptation of populations to climate change. We aimed to assess how heat- and cold-mortality risks change across urban, peri-urban and rural areas in Switzerland and to identify and compare the factors associated with increased vulnerability within and between different area typologies. We estimated the heat- and cold-related mortality association using the case time-series design and distributed lag non-linear models over daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality series between 1990-2017 in each municipality in Switzerland. Then, through multivariate meta-regression, we derived pooled heat and cold-mortality associations by typology (i.e. urban/rural/peri-urban) and assessed potential vulnerability factors among a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, land use and other environmental data. Urban clusters reported larger pooled heat-related mortality risk (at 99th percentile, vs. temperature of minimum mortality (MMT)) (relative risk=1.17(95%CI:1.10;1.24, vs peri-urban 1.03(1.00;1.06), and rural 1.03 (0.99;1.08)), but similar cold-mortality risk (at 1st percentile, vs. MMT) (1.35(1.28;1.43), vs rural 1.28(1.14;1.44) and peri-urban 1.39 (1.27-1.53)) clusters. We found different sets of vulnerability factors explaining the differential risk patterns across typologies. In urban clusters, mainly environmental factors (i.e. PM2.5) drove differences in heat-mortality association, while for peri-urban/rural clusters socio-economic variables were also important. For cold, socio-economic variables drove changes in vulnerability across all typologies, while environmental factors and ageing were other important drivers of larger vulnerability in peri-urban/rural clusters, with heterogeneity in the direction of the association. Our findings suggest that urban populations in Switzerland may be more vulnerable to heat, compared to rural locations, and different sets of vulnerability factors may drive these associations in each typology. Thus, future public health adaptation strategies should consider local and more tailored interventions rather than a one-size fits all approach. size fits all approach.

Inequalities in mortality associated with housing conditions in Belgium between 1991 and 2020

BACKGROUND

Poor housing conditions have been associated with increased mortality. Our objective is to investigate the association between housing inequality and increased mortality in Belgium and to estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented if the population of the whole country faced the mortality rates experienced in areas that are least deprived in terms of housing.

METHODS

We used individual-level mortality data extracted from the National Register in Belgium and relative to deaths that occurred between Jan. 1, 1991, and Dec. 31, 2020. Spatial and time-specific housing deprivation indices (1991, 2001, and 2011) were created at the level of the smallest geographical unit in Belgium, with these units assigned into deciles from the most to the least deprived. We calculated mortality associated with housing inequality as the difference between observed and expected deaths by applying mortality rates of the least deprived decile to other deciles. We also used standard life table calculations to estimate the potential years of life lost due housing inequality.

RESULTS

Up to 18.5% (95% CI 17.7-19.3) of all deaths between 1991 and 2020 may be associated with housing inequality, corresponding to 584,875 deaths. Over time, life expectancy at birth increased for the most and least deprived deciles by about 3.5 years. The gap in life expectancy between the two deciles remained high, on average 4.6 years. Life expectancy in Belgium would increase by approximately 3 years if all deciles had the mortality rates of the least deprived decile.

CONCLUSIONS

Thousands of deaths in Belgium could be avoided if all Belgian neighborhoods had the mortality rates of the least deprived areas in terms of housing. Hotspots of housing inequalities need to be located and targeted with tailored public actions.

Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

BACKGROUND

Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown.

METHODS

This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974-2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile.

RESULTS

Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities.

Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.

Climatic influences on cardiovascular diseases

Classical risk factors only partially account for variations in cardiovascular disease incidence; therefore, also other so far unknown features, among which meteorological factors, may influence heart diseases (mainly coronary heart diseases, but also heart failure, arrhythmias, aortic dissection and stroke) rates. The most studied phenomenon is ambient temperature. The relation between mortality, as well as cardiovascular diseases incidence, and temperature appears graphically as a ''U'' shape. Exposure to cold, heat and heat waves is associated with an increased risk of acute coronary syndromes. Other climatic variables, such as humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunlight hours, wind strength and direction and rain/snow precipitations have been hypothesized as related to fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases incidence. Main limitation of these studies is the unavailability of data on individual exposure to weather parameters. Effects of weather may vary depending on other factors, such as population disease profile and age structure. Climatic stress may increase direct and indirect risks to human health via different, complex pathophysiological pathways and exogenous and endogenous mechanisms. These data have attracted growing interest because of the recent earth's climate change, with consequent increasing ambient temperatures and climatic fluctuations. This review evaluates the evidence base for cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, and it also explores potential further implications.

Cultural Evolution of Genetic Heritability

Behavioral genetics and cultural evolution have both revolutionized our understanding of human behavior-largely independent of each other. Here we reconcile these two fields under a dual inheritance framework, offering a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between genes and culture. Going beyond typical analyses of gene-environment interactions, we describe the cultural dynamics that shape these interactions by shaping the environment and population structure. A cultural evolutionary approach can explain, for example, how factors such as rates of innovation and diffusion, density of cultural sub-groups, and tolerance for behavioral diversity impact heritability estimates, thus yielding predictions for different social contexts. Moreover, when cumulative culture functionally overlaps with genes, genetic effects become masked, unmasked, or even reversed, and the causal effects of an identified gene become confounded with features of the cultural environment. The manner of confounding is specific to a particular society at a particular time, but a WEIRD (Western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic) sampling problem obscures this boundedness. Cultural evolutionary dynamics are typically missing from models of gene-to-phenotype causality, hindering generalizability of genetic effects across societies and across time. We lay out a reconciled framework and use it to predict the ways in which heritability should differ between societies, between socioeconomic levels and other groupings within some societies but not others, and over the life course. An integrated cultural evolutionary behavioral genetic approach cuts through the nature-nurture debate and helps resolve controversies in topics such as IQ.

The Mortality Risk and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Associated with High and Low Temperature in Hong Kong

(1) Background: The adverse health effect associated with extreme temperature has been extensively reported in the current literature. Some also found that temperature effect may vary among the population with different socioeconomic status (SES), but found inconsistent results. Previous studies on the socioeconomic vulnerability of temperature effect were mainly achieved by multi-city or country analysis, but the large heterogeneity between cities may introduce additional bias to the estimation. The linkage between death registry and census in Hong Kong allows us to perform a city-wide analysis in which the study population shares virtually the same cultural, lifestyle and policy environment. This study aims to examine and compare the high and low temperature on morality in Hong Kong, a city with a subtropical climate and address a key research question of whether the extreme high and low temperature disproportionally affects population with lower SES. (2) Methods: Poisson-generalized additive models and distributed-lagged nonlinear models were used to examine the association between daily mortality and daily mean temperature between 2007–2015 with other meteorological and confounding factors controlled. Death registry was linked with small area census and area-level median household income was used as the proxy for socioeconomic status. (3) Results: 362,957 deaths during the study period were included in the analysis. The minimum mortality temperature was found to be 28.9 °C (82nd percentile). With a subtropical climate, the low temperature has a stronger effect than the high temperature on non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory and cancer deaths in Hong Kong. The hot effect was more pronounced in the first few days, while cold effect tended to last up to three weeks. Significant heat effect was only observed in the lower SES groups, whilst the extreme low temperature was associated with significantly higher mortality risk across all SES groups. The older population were susceptible to extreme temperature, especially for cold. (4) Conclusions: This study raised the concern of cold-related health impact in the subtropical region. Compared with high temperature, low temperature may be considered a universal hazard to the entire population in Hong Kong rather than only disproportionally affecting people with lower SES. Future public health policy should reconsider the strategy at both individual and community levels to reduce temperature-related mortality.

The relationship between buildings and health: a systematic review

Background

The built environment exerts one of the strongest directly measurable effects on physical and mental health, yet the evidence base underpinning the design of healthy urban planning is not fully developed.

Method

This study provides a systematic review of quantitative studies assessing the impact of buildings on health. In total, 7127 studies were identified from a structured search of eight databases combined with manual searching for grey literature. Only quantitative studies conducted between January 2000 and November 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Studies were assessed using the quality assessment tool for quantitative studies.

Results

In total, 39 studies were included in this review. Findings showed consistently that housing refurbishment and modifications, provision of adequate heating, improvements to ventilation and water supply were associated with improved respiratory outcomes, quality of life and mental health. Prioritization of housing for vulnerable groups led to improved wellbeing. However, the quality of the underpinning evidence and lack of methodological rigour in most of the studies makes it difficult to draw causal links.

Conclusion

This review identified evidence to demonstrate the strong association between certain features of housing and wellbeing such as adequate heating and ventilation. Our findings highlight the need for strengthening of the evidence base in order for meaningful conclusions to be drawn.

Healthy buildings for a healthy city: Is the public health evidence base informing current building policies?

Research has demonstrated that housing quality is a key urban intervention in reducing health risks and improving climate resilience, addressing a key ambition of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Yet housing quality remains a problem even in high income countries such as England. In particular, hazards such as excess cold, excess heat and lack of ventilation leading to damp and mould have been identified as a major issue in homes. Research shows that these hazards can lead to a range of health conditions, such as respiratory and cardiovascular disease, infections and mental health problems. This article explores the use of public health research and evidence in policy to regulate new buildings in England to deliver improved public health, climate resilience and a reduced carbon footprint, in particular exploring the policy drivers and awareness of the public health evidence. Findings show that public health evidence is hardly referenced in policy and that the focus on other evidence bases such as on climate mitigation in building regulations results in both positive and negative impacts on health. This reflects a lack of a systems approach around urban interventions leading to weaknesses in standards regulating the private development sector. In conclusion, this paper recommends: 1. the consideration of health impact in future building regulations; 2. the integration and coordination of key policies covering various scales and phases of the development processes and 3. the better education of residents to understand advances in new energy performance technologies.

Small-area methods for investigation of environment and health

Small-area studies offer a powerful epidemiological approach to study disease patterns at the population level and assess health risks posed by environmental pollutants. They involve a public health investigation on a geographical scale (e.g. neighbourhood) with overlay of health, environmental, demographic and potential confounder data. Recent methodological advances, including Bayesian approaches, combined with fast-growing computational capabilities, permit more informative analyses than previously possible, including the incorporation of data at different scales, from satellites to individual-level survey information. Better data availability has widened the scope and utility of small-area studies, but has also led to greater complexity, including choice of optimal study area size and extent, duration of study periods, range of covariates and confounders to be considered and dealing with uncertainty. The availability of data from large, well-phenotyped cohorts such as UK Biobank enables the use of mixed-level study designs and the triangulation of evidence on environmental risks from small-area and individual-level studies, therefore improving causal inference, including use of linked biomarker and -omics data. As a result, there are now improved opportunities to investigate the impacts of environmental risk factors on human health, particularly for the surveillance and prevention of non-communicable diseases.

The role of cities in reducing the cardiovascular impacts of environmental pollution in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

As low- and middle-income countries urbanize and industrialize, they must also cope with pollution emitted from diverse sources.

MAIN TEXT

Strong and consistent evidence associates exposure to air pollution and lead with increased risk of cardiovascular disease occurrence and death. Further, increasing evidence, mostly from high-income countries, indicates that exposure to noise and to both high and low temperatures may also increase cardiovascular risk. There is considerably less research on the cardiovascular impacts of environmental conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the levels of pollution are often higher and the types and sources of pollution markedly different from those in higher-income settings. However, as such evidence gathers, actions to reduce exposures to pollution in low- and middle-income countries are warranted, not least because such exposures are very high. Cities, where pollution, populations, and other cardiovascular risk factors are most concentrated, may be best suited to reduce the cardiovascular burden in LMICs by applying environmental standards and policies to mitigate pollution and by implementing interventions that target the most vulnerable. The physical environment of cities can be improved though municipal processes, including infrastructure development, energy and transportation planning, and public health actions. Local regulations can incentivize or inhibit the polluting behaviors of industries and individuals. Environmental monitoring can be combined with public health warning systems and publicly available exposure maps to inform residents of environmental hazards and encourage the adoption of pollution-avoiding behaviors. Targeted individual or neighborhood interventions that identify and treat high-risk populations (e.g., lead mitigation, portable air cleaners, and preventative medications) can also be leveraged in the very near term. Research will play a key role in evaluating whether these approaches achieve their intended benefits, and whether these benefits reach the most vulnerable.

CONCLUSION

Cities in LMICs can play a defining role in global health and cardiovascular disease prevention in the next several decades, as they are well poised to develop innovative, multisectoral approaches to pollution mitigation, while also protecting the most vulnerable.

Weather patterns and all-cause mortality in England, UK

Cold- and heat-related mortality poses significant public health concerns worldwide. Although there are numerous studies dealing with the association between extreme ambient temperature and mortality, only a small number adopt a synoptic climatological approach in order to understand the nature of weather systems that precipitate increases in cold- or heat-related mortality. In this paper, the Lamb Weather Type synoptic classification is used to examine the relationship between daily mortality and weather patterns across nine regions of England. Analysis results revealed that the population in England is more susceptible to cold weather. Furthermore, it was found that the Easterly weather types are the most hazardous for public health all-year-long; however, during the cold period, the results are more evident and spatially homogenous. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the most dangerous weather conditions are not always associated with extreme (high or low) temperatures, a finding which points to the complexity of weather-related health effects and highlights the importance of a synoptic climatological approach in elucidating the relationship between temperature and mortality.

Sanitation predictors of childhood morbidities in Ethiopia: evidence from Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Failure to provide adequate sanitation services to all people is perhaps the greatest development failure. Globally, billions of people have no access to improved sanitation facilities. Though the link between sanitation and childhood morbidities is established globally, the evidence is limited in rural parts of Ethiopia. This survey was, therefore, designed to determine the prevalence of common childhood morbidities and to identify sanitation predictors in rural parts of northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A re-census reconciliation, which is a cross-sectional design, was employed from October to December 2014. All households found in the research and demographic sites were included as study subjects. A questionnaire and an observational checklist were used to collect data. Households’ sanitation performances, house type, illumination, household energy sources, water supply, and waste management were assessed. The occurrence of childhood morbidities was determined from the occurrence of one or more water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) preventable diseases. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify the association of sanitation factors with childhood morbidities on the basis of adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and p value < 0.05.

Results

About 575 (7.00%) of under-five children had hygiene- and sanitation-related diseases. Gastrointestinal and respiratory health problems accounted for 287 (49.91%) and 288 (50.09%), respectively. Childhood morbidities among under-five children were associated with poor housing condition [AOR = 1.27, 95% CI = (1.04, 1.54)], dirty cooking energy sources [AOR = 1.52, 95% CI = (1.22, 1.89)], volume of water below 20 l/p/d [AOR = 1.95, 95% CI = (1.19, 3.18)], and narrow-mouthed water storage containers [AOR = 0.73, 95% CI = (0.56, 0.96)].

Conclusion

A significant proportion of under-five children had childhood morbidities in the study area. Housing condition, cooking energy sources, volume of water collected, and type of water storage containers were factors associated with the occurrence of childhood morbidities. Enabling the community to have the access to a safe and continuous supply of water and proper disposal of wastes, including excreta, is necessary with particular emphasis to the rural communities and semi-urban areas to reduce the occurrence of childhood morbidities.

Weather fluctuations: predictive factors in the prevalence of acute coronary syndrome

Background: Meteorological parameters and seasonal changes can play an important role in the occurrence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, there is almost no evidence on a national level to suggest the associations between these variables and ACS in Iran. We aim to identify the meteorological parameters and seasonal changes in relationship to ACS.

Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted between 03/19/2015 to 03/18/2016 and used documents and records of patients with ACS in Mazandaran ProvinceHeart Center, Iran. The following definitive diagnostic criteria for ACS were used: (1) existence of cardiac enzymes (CK or CK-MB) above the normal range; (2) Greater than 1 mm ST-segment elevation or depression; (3) abnormal Q waves; and (4) manifestation of troponin enzyme in the blood. Data were collected daily, such as temperature (Celsius) changes, wind speed and its direction, rainfall, daily evaporation rate; number of sunny days, and relative humidity were provided by the Meteorological Organization of Iran.

Results: A sample of 2,054 patients with ACS were recruited. The results indicated the highest ACS events from March to May. Generally, wind speed (18 PM) [IRR = 1.051 (95% CI: 1.019 to1.083), P=0.001], daily evaporation [IRR = 1.039 (95% CI: 1.003 to 1.077), P=0.032], daily maximum (P<0.001) and minimum (P=0.003) relative humidity was positively correlated withACS events. Also, negatively correlated variables were daily relative humidity (18 PM) [IRR =0.985 (95% CI: 0.978 to 0.992), P<0.001], and daily minimum temperature [IRR = 0.942 (95%CI: 0.927 to 0.958), P<0.001].

Conclusion: Climate changes were found to be significantly associated with ACS; especially from cold weather to hot weather in March, April and May. Further research is needed to fully understand the specific conditions and cold exposures.

The effect of the Winter Fuel Payment on household temperature and health: a regression discontinuity design study

Background

The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is a non-NHS population-level policy intervention that aims to reduce cold exposure and enhance the health and well-being of older adults. Labelling this cash transfer as ‘winter fuel’ has been shown to lead to increased household energy expenditure, but it is not known if this expenditure produces warmer homes or health benefits.

Objectives

First, the association between indoor temperature and health was established to identify the outcome measures most likely to be affected by the WFP. Then, whether or not receiving the WFP is associated with raised household temperature levels and/or improved health was assessed.

Design

Random and fixed effects regression models were used to estimate the link between ambient indoor temperature and health. A regression discontinuity (RD) design analysis exploiting the sharp eligibility criteria for the WFP was employed to estimate the potential impact of the payment.

Setting

The sample was drawn from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), an observational study of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 50 years in England.

Participants

Analyses examining the association between household temperature and health had a maximum sample of 12,210 adults aged 50–90 years. The RD analyses drew on a maximum of 5902 observations.

Intervention

The WFP provides households with a member who is aged > 60 years (up to 2010, from which point the minimum age increased) in the qualifying week with a lump sum annual payment, typically in November or December.

Main outcome measures

Differences in indoor temperature were examined, and, following an extensive literature review of relevant participant-reported health indicators and objectively recorded biomarkers likely to be affected by indoor temperature, a series of key measures were selected: blood pressure, inflammation, lung function, the presence of chest infections, subjective health and depressive symptom ratings.

Data sources

The first six waves of the ELSA were drawn from, accessible through the UK Data Service (SN:5050 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: Waves 0–7, 1998–2015).

Results

Results from both random and fixed-effects multilevel regression models showed that low levels of indoor temperature were associated with raised systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels and raised fibrinogen levels. However, across the RD models, no evidence was found that the WFP was consistently associated with differences in either household temperature or the health of qualifying (vs. non-qualifying) households.

Limitations

The presence of small effects cannot be ruled out, not detectable because of the sample size in the current study.

Conclusions

This study capitalised on the sharp assignment rules regarding WFP eligibility to estimate the potential effect of the WFP on household temperature and health in a national sample of English adults. The RD design employed did not identify evidence linking the WFP to warmer homes or potential health and well-being effects.

Future work

Further research should utilise larger samples of participants close to the WFP eligibility cut-off point examined during particularly cold weather in order to identify whether or not the WFP is linked to health benefits not detected in the current study, which may have implications for population health and the evaluation of the effectiveness of the WFP.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Annual and seasonal trends in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in Hungary between 1984 and 2013

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate annual and seasonal trends in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in Hungary between 1984 and 2013.

METHODS

Annual and monthly mortality and population data were obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. The annual mortality data by gender and age were available for the following disease classifications of the circulatory system: all cardiovascular diseases, all diseases of the heart, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular diseases. Six age groups were defined for both sexes. Negative binomial regression was carried out to analyse annual trends in age-standardized mortality rates. The Walter-Elwood method was used to identify seasonal variation using monthly numbers of deaths.

RESULTS

Significant decreases in annual mortality rates for all cardiovascular diseases were found, but not for hypertension. Age-standardized death rates were higher for men for all causes, except for hypertension. The greatest sex difference in the average risk of death was observed in the middle-aged groups. The greatest percentage decrease in death rates during the study period was seen for both sexes in the under 35 age group. The lowest percentage change was observed among people aged over 75. Significant seasonality was found in monthly death rates from all causes, with a peak in February.

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of a decreasing trend in the annual mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases, the Hungarian mortality rate is still high. Moreover, this study demonstrated a significant winter peak in mortality from cardiovascular diseases over a thirty-year period.

Assessing Effect Modification of Excess Winter Death by Causes of Death and Individual Characteristics in Zhejiang Province, China: A Multi-Community Case-Only Analysis

Mortality in many parts of the world has a seasonal pattern, with a marked excess of deaths during winter. To date, however, there is very little published evidence on the nature of this wintertime excess in low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to quantify the extent of the death peak in winter and to assess effect modification on excess winter death (EWD) by individual characteristics and cause of deaths in China. We used a Cosinor model to examine seasonal patterns for specific causes of deaths and a case-only analysis of deaths in winter compared with other seasons to assess effect modification by individual characteristics. A total of 398,529 deaths were investigated between January 2010 and December 2013 in Zhejiang Province, China. Deaths peaked in winter, and overall mortality was around 30% higher in winter than in summer. Although diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems were highly seasonal, surprisingly we observed that deaths from mental and behavioral disorders exhibited greater fluctuation. Males, the elderly and illiterate individuals suffered high EWD. EWDs were also particularly common in emergency rooms, at home, on the way to hospitals, and in nursing homes/family wards. This study highlighted the high EWD in some previously unreported groups, indicating new information to facilitate the targeting of necessary preventive measures to those at greatest risk in order to mitigate wintertime death burdens.

Seasonal variation in mortality secondary to acute myocardial infarction in England and Wales: a secondary data analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of death globally. Increase in AMI mortality during winter has also been identified in existing literature. This has been associated with low outdoor and indoor temperatures and increasing age. The relationship between AMI and other factors such as gender and socioeconomic factors varies from study to study. Influenza epidemics have also been identified as a contributory factor.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to illustrate the seasonal trend in mortality due to AMI in England and Wales with emphasis on excess winter mortality (EWM).

METHODS

Monthly mortality rates per 10 000 population were calculated from data provided by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) for 1997-2005. To quantify the seasonal variation in winter, the EWM estimates (EWM, EWM ratio, Excess Winter Mortality Index) for each year were calculated. Negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the relationship between increasing age and EWM.

RESULTS

The decline in mortality rate for AMI was 6.8% yearly between August 1997 and July 2005. Significant trend for reduction in AMI-associated mortality was observed over the period (p<0.001). This decline was not seen with EWM (p<0.001). 17% excess deaths were observed during winter. This amounted to about 20 000 deaths over the 8-year period. Increasing winter mortality was seen with increasing age for AMI.

CONCLUSION

EWM secondary to AMI does occur in England and Wales. Excess winter deaths due to AMI have remained high despite decline in overall mortality. More research is needed to identify the relationship of sex, temperature, acclimatisation, vitamin D and excess winter deaths due to AMI.

Housing conditions and birth outcomes: The National Child Development Study

BACKGROUND

Despite their importance to respiratory and other health outcomes, housing conditions have been little-studied with respect to perinatal outcomes.

METHODS

1927 participants in the British National Child Development Study reported on housing conditions and pregnancy outcomes, including presence/severity of mold/dampness; type of heating; and whether remodeling of various sorts had been conducted. Crowding, based on the number of people in the residence and the number of rooms, was also considered. Outcomes assessed were low birthweight (< 2500g), preterm birth (< 37 weeks), and small-for-gestational-age (< 10th percentile for gestational age). Multiple logistic regression with adjustment for maternal, sociodemographic, and housing factors was conducted.

RESULTS

Women who reported serious problems with mold were more likely to give birth to a low birthweight (adjusted OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.13-3.47) or small-for-gestational-age (2.06, 1.25-3.38) baby; no consistent associations were seen with preterm birth. Crowding was associated only with small-for-gestational-age (1.73, 1.11-2.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to mold or dampness, and housing conditions generally, is a potentially important but under-investigated aspect of women's lives during pregnancy. Future studies should more thoroughly investigate housing characteristics and their relationship with birth outcomes.

Use of primary care data to predict those most vulnerable to cold weather: a case-crossover analysis

Background

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that GPs use routinely available data to identify patients most at risk of death and ill health from living in cold homes.

Aim

To investigate whether sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics could predict cold-related mortality.

Design and setting

A case-crossover analysis was conducted on 34 777 patients aged ≥65 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who died between April 2012 and March 2014. The average temperature of date of death and 3 days previously were calculated from Met Office data. The average 3-day temperature for the 28th day before/after date of death were calculated, and comparisons were made between these temperatures and those experienced around the date of death.

Method

Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of death associated with temperature and interactions between temperature and sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics, expressed as relative odds ratios (RORs).

Results

Lower 3-day temperature was associated with higher risk of death (OR 1.011 per 1°C fall; 95% CI = 1.007 to 1.015; P<0.001). No modifying effects were observed for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics. Analysis of winter deaths for causes typically associated with excess winter mortality (N = 7710) showed some evidence of a weaker effect of lower 3-day temperature for females (ROR 0.980 per 1°C, 95% CI = 0.959 to 1.002, P = 0.082), and a stronger effect for patients living in northern England (ROR 1.040 per 1°C, 95% CI = 1.013 to 1.066, P = 0.002).

Conclusion

It is unlikely that GPs can identify older patients at highest risk of cold-related death using routinely available data, and NICE may need to refine its guidance.

The Excess Winter Deaths Measure: Why Its Use Is Misleading for Public Health Understanding of Cold-related Health Impacts

Background:

Excess winter deaths, the ratio between average daily deaths in December–March versus other months, is a measure commonly used by public health practitioners and analysts to assess health burdens associated with wintertime weather. We seek to demonstrate that this measure is fundamentally biased and can lead to misleading conclusions about health impacts associated with current and future winter climate.

Methods:

Time series regression analysis of 779,372 deaths from natural causes in London over 15 years (1 August 1997–31 July 2012),collapsed by day of death and linked to daily temperature values. The outcome measures were the excess winter deaths index, and daily and annual deaths attributable specifically to cold.

Results:

Most of the excess winter deaths are driven by cold: The excess winter deaths index decreased from 1.19 to 1.07 after excluding deaths attributable to low temperatures. Over 40% of cold-attributable deaths occurred outside of the December–March period, leading to bias in the excess winter deaths measure. Although there was no relationship between winter severity and annual excess winter deaths, there was a clear correlation with annual cold-attributable deaths.

Conclusions:

Excess winter deaths is not an appropriate indicator of cold-related health impacts, and its use should be discontinued. We advocate alternative measures. The findings we present bring into doubt previous claims that cold-related deaths in the UK will not reduce in future as a result of climate change.

Neighborhood Context, Homeownership and Home Value: An Ecological Analysis of Implications for Health

While homeownership has been linked to positive health outcomes there is limited evidence regarding the conditions under which it may be health protective. We present a conceptual model linking homeownership to health, highlighting key potential pathways. Using the Detroit Metropolitan Area as a case study, and data from the American Community Survey (2009-2013; 5-years estimates) and Michigan Department of Community Health, we tested the following questions: (1) Is neighborhood percentage non-Hispanic Black (NHB) associated with homeownership? (2) Is neighborhood percentage NHB associated with health? (3) Is the association between percentage NHB and health mediated by homeownership? (4) Does neighborhood housing value modify associations between percentage NHB and health, or between homeownership and health? Percentage NHB was associated with homeownership and health outcomes; Associations between percentage NHB and mortality, but not disability, were partially mediated by neighborhood homeownership. Neighborhood housing value modified associations between neighborhood homeownership and both disability and mortality, but not between percentage NHB and health outcomes. Findings are consistent with the thesis that health-promoting effects of homeownership may be contingent upon house values. These results add to a limited body of evidence suggesting that variations in homeownership may contribute to persistent racial and socioeconomic health inequities.

Evidence of social deprivation on the spatial patterns of excess winter mortality

Objectives

The aims of this study are to identify the patterns of excess winter mortality (due to diseases of the circulatory system) and to analyse the association between the excess winter deaths (EWD) and socio-economic deprivation in Portugal.

Methods

The number of EWD in 2002–2011 was estimated by comparing the number of deaths in winter months with the average number in non-winter months. The EWD ratio of each municipality was calculated by following the indirect standardization method and then compared with two deprivation indexes (socio-material and housing deprivation index) through ecological regression models.

Results

This study found that: (1) the EWD ratio showed considerable asymmetry in its geography; (2) there are significant positive associations between the EWD ratio and both deprivation indexes; and (3) at the higher level of deprivation, housing conditions have a stronger association with EWD than socio-material conditions.

Conclusions

The significant association between two deprivation dimensions (socio-material and housing deprivation) and EWDs suggests that EWD geographical pattern is influenced by deprivation.

Environmental ambient temperature and blood pressure in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Although many individual studies have examined the association between temperature and blood pressure (BP), they used different methods and also their results were somewhat inconsistent. The aims of this study are to quantitatively summarize previous studies and to systematically assess the methodological issues to make recommendations for future research.

METHODS

We searched relevant empirical studies published before January 2016 concerning temperature and BP among adults using the MEDLINE, Embase and PubMed databases. Mean changes in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) per 1°C reduction in temperature were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of 23 studies included, 14 were used for meta-analysis. Consistent, statistically significant, inverse associations were observed between ambient temperature (mean, maximum, minimum outdoor temperature and indoor temperature) and BP. An 1°C decrease in mean daily outdoor temperature was associated with an increase in SBP and DBP of 0.26mmHg (95% CI: 0.18-0.33) and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.11-0.16), respectively. The increase was greater in people with conditions related to cardiovascular disease. An 1°C decrease in indoor temperature was associated with 0.38mmHg (0.18-0.58) increase in SBP, while the effects on DBP were not estimated due to limited studies. Among the previous studies on temperature-BP relationship, temperature and BP measurements are not accurate enough and statistical methods need to be improved.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower ambient temperatures seem to increase adults' BP and people with conditions related to cardiovascular disease are more susceptible to drops in temperature. Indoor temperature appeared to have a stronger effect on BP than outdoor temperature. To understand temperature-BP relationship well, a study combining repeated personal temperature exposure and ambulatory BP monitoring, applying improved statistical methods to examine potential non-linear relationship is warranted.

Statistical associations between housing quality and health among Finnish households with children - Results from two (repeated) national surveys

The overall aim of the study was to assess housing and health issues related to Finnish housing stock and possible changes occurring in the course of time. Based on two housing and health questionnaire surveys, first one in 2007 and the second one in 2011, we examined factors associated with housing satisfaction and health symptoms that residents themselves reported on a general population level. A special emphasis was on housing quality and health issues among households with children. The total number of survey responses was 2674, response rate being slightly lower in the 2011 (29%) survey than in 2007 (43%). Differences in housing and health issues observed between 2007 and 2011 surveys were relatively small. From the various housing factors studied, largest differences between surveys were seen in thermal comfort during summer, which could be attributed to climate factors. From the five health outcome variables studied, only self-reported upper respiratory symptoms appeared to have significant temporal variation between the surveys. Overall, issues related to crowding, inaccessibility, use of chemicals, indoor air quality (e.g. ventilation adequacy), and dampness and mold could cause more unsatisfactory housing conditions among the families with children. Respondents who had children reported respiratory symptoms less commonly, whereas risk for respiratory infections was increased among these respondents. Modeling self-reported health symptoms led to selection of nine to twelve statistically significant housing variables together with up to five socio-economic variables, i.e. complex models which are difficult to interpret quantitatively. The models' sensitivity for properly indicating symptoms was rather low, varying from 4% to 22%, which illustrates that it is quite impossible to predict individuals' symptoms with a set of housing characteristics. However, the associations observed on the population level may be used to develop policies that are protective of public health.

Housing conditions and limitations in physical function among older adults

INTRODUCTION

Housing conditions are an important social determinant of health. However, to the best of our knowledge, no previous study has systematically assessed the association between housing conditions and physical function limitations in older adults; moreover, whether this association is independent of the socioeconomic status achieved earlier in life is still uncertain.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis conducted among 2012 non-institutionalised individuals aged ≥60 years, who participated in the Seniors-ENRICA cohort. Participants reported the following poor housing conditions: living in a walk-up building, lacking heating, or feeling cold frequently. We assessed lower extremity performance with the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), mobility or agility limitations with standardised questions, frailty according to the Fried criteria, and disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) with the Lawton and Brody questionnaire.

RESULTS

In analyses adjusting for demographic, behavioural and comorbidity variables, when compared with those living in homes without poor housing conditions, those with ≥2 poor conditions showed worse scores in the SPPB (β -1.06; 95% CI -1.46 to -0.65) and a higher frequency of agility limitation (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.61) and frailty (OR 8.78; 95% CI 3.00 to 25.60). These associations held after adjustment for educational and occupational levels. Living in a walk-up building was associated with a higher frequency of frailty, while lacking heating was linked to lower scores in the 3 SPPB tests, as well as with an increased frequency of frailty and 4 of its components (exhaustion, slow walking speed, low physical activity and weakness). Feeling cold was linked to increased exhaustion. No association was found between housing conditions and IADL disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor housing conditions, particularly living in a walk-up building and lacking heating, are independently associated with limitations in physical function in older adults. This entails serious inequalities in functional status, which should be firmly addressed.

Exploring the Spatial Association between Social Deprivation and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality at the Neighborhood Level

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death in the United States, is impacted by neighborhood-level factors including social deprivation. To measure the association between social deprivation and CVD mortality in Harris County, Texas, global (Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and local (Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)) models were built. The models explored the spatial variation in the relationship at a census-tract level while controlling for age, income by race, and education. A significant and spatially varying association (p < .01) was found between social deprivation and CVD mortality, when controlling for all other factors in the model. The GWR model provided a better model fit over the analogous OLS model (R² = .65 vs. .57), reinforcing the importance of geography and neighborhood of residence in the relationship between social deprivation and CVD mortality. Findings from the GWR model can be used to identify neighborhoods at greatest risk for poor health outcomes and to inform the placement of community-based interventions.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

Mortality related to extreme temperature for 15 cities in northeast Asia

BACKGROUND

Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries.

METHODS

This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994-2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992-2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972-2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and country-wide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered.

RESULTS

Cold effects had longer time lags (5-11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1-3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.

The Impact of Weather on Mobility and Participation in Older U.S. Adults

OBJECTIVES

We examined the impact of weather on the daily lives of US adults to understand which populations are most vulnerable to various weather conditions.

METHODS

Data came from a 2013 supplement to the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters Surveys of Consumers, a nationally representative telephone survey of 502 adults in the contiguous United States. We used logistic regressions to assess the odds of mobility difficulty and participation restriction during different weather conditions, as well as age group differences.

RESULTS

Ice was most likely to change the way respondents got around (reported by 47%). In icy conditions, participants had difficulty leaving home (40%) and driving (35%). Facing ice, older adults (≥ 65 years) had twice the odds of having great difficulty leaving home (odds ratio [OR] = 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12, 4.42) and curtailing work or volunteer activities (OR = 2.01; 95% CI = 1.01, 4.06), and 3 times the odds of difficulty driving (OR = 3.33; 95% CI = 1.62, 6.86) as younger respondents. We also found significant differences in mobility and participation by gender and region of residence.

CONCLUSIONS

Weather can affect social isolation, health, well-being, and mortality among older US adults.

Benefit or burden? Perceptions of energy efficiency efforts among low-income housing residents in New York City

Low-income households contend with high energy costs and poor thermal comfort due to poor structural conditions and energy inefficiencies in their homes. Energy efficiency upgrades can potentially reduce energy expenses and improve thermal comfort, while also addressing problematic issues in the home environment. The present mixed method pilot study explored the impacts of energy efficiency upgrades in 20 households in a low-income community in New York City. Surveys and interviews were administered to the heads of household in a variety of housing types. Interviews were also conducted with landlords of buildings that had recently undergone upgrades. Findings indicate that energy efficiency measures resulted in improved thermal comfort, enhanced health and safety and reduced energy costs. Participants reported largely positive experiences with the upgrades, resulting in direct and indirect benefits. However, results also indicate negative consequences associated with the upgrades and further illustrate that weatherization alone was insufficient to address all of the issues facing low-income households. Moreover, qualitative results revealed differing experiences of low-income renters compared to homeowners. Overall, energy efficiency upgrades are a promising intervention to mitigate the energy and structurally related challenges facing low-income households, but larger scale research is needed to capture the long-term implications of these upgrades.

Temperature effects on outpatient visits of respiratory diseases, asthma, and chronic airway obstruction in Taiwan

This study evaluated the risk of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, asthma, and chronic airway obstruction not elsewhere classified (CAO) associated with ambient temperatures and extreme temperature events from 2000 to 2008 in Taiwan. Based on geographical and socioeconomics characteristics, this study divided the whole island into seven areas. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the area-disease-specific cumulative relative risk (RR), and random-effect meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled RR of outpatient visits, from lag 0 to lag 7 days, associated with daily temperature, and added effects of prolonged extreme heat and cold for population of all ages, the elderly and younger than 65 years. Pooled analyses showed that younger population had higher outpatient visits for exposing to low temperature of 18 °C, with cumulative 8-day RRs of 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-1.42) for respiratory diseases, 1.10 (95% CI 1.03-1.18) for asthma, and 1.12 (95% CI 1.02-1.22) for CAO. The elderly was more vulnerable to high temperature of 30 °C with the cumulative 8-day RR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.03-1.13) for CAO. Elevated outpatient visits for all respiratory diseases and asthma were associated with extreme heat lasting for 6 to 8 days. On the contrary, the extreme cold lasting more than 8 days had significant negative association with outpatient visits of all respiratory diseases. In summary, elderly patients of respiratory diseases and CAO are vulnerable to high temperature. Cold temperature is associated with all types of respiratory diseases for younger patients.

Influence of weather conditions on the frequent onset of acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

This study was conducted to clarify the influence of weather conditions on the onset of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Kumamoto.

METHODS

We studied 642 consecutive patients (males 433, females 209; 71±13 years) who were admitted with AMI. Days of frequent onset (F-days) were defined as days on which ≥2 patients had been admitted for AMI, whereas days of non-frequent onset (N-days) indicated those with fewer than 2 admissions for AMI. Meteorological factors, including the mean atmospheric pressure and rainfall, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, intra-day temperature difference, humidity, wind speed, and the number of sunlight hours, were analyzed. All variables were measured on the day of onset of AMI and on each of the 2 days immediately prior to the day of onset.

RESULTS

There were 86 F-days and 1740 N-days. F-days were significantly associated with lower air temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum), higher intra-day temperature difference, lower humidity, and longer daily duration of sunlight compared with N-days. In addition, meteorological factors for frequent onset of AMI affected older subjects to a greater extent than either young or female subjects. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that minimum temperature two days before onset was associated with the frequent onset of AMI (odds ratio, 0.805; p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Lower minimum temperature on the 2nd day preceding the onset is an independent risk factor for the frequent onset of AMI. The association between low ambient temperature and frequent onset of AMI was stronger in elderly and female subjects.

Association of Meteorological Variables and Coronary Blood Flow

We aimed to assess the impact of meteorological variables on coronary blood flow (CBF). Coronary blood flow was evaluated using the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction frame count (TFC). The association of CBF with meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, total solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and total sunshine duration were investigated as well as demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics. Assessment of 1206 patients (median age = 53 years, 723 females) revealed the presence of slow coronary flow (SCF) in 196 patients. Daily maximum temperature [odds ratio = 0.951, 95% confidence interval = 0.916-0.986, P = .007] was the only independent predictor of the presence of SCF, whereas systolic blood pressure (β = -0.139, P = .026), hematocrit level (β = 0.128, P = .044), and daily maximum temperature (β = -1.479, P = .049) were independent predictors of log10 (mean TFC). Findings of the present study suggest a role of meteorological parameters in CBF regulation.

Heat- and cold-stress effects on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity among urban and rural populations in the Czech Republic

Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994-2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes.

Use of "Cold Spell" indices to quantify excess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) morbidity during winter (November to March 2000-2007): case study in Porto

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the occurrence of cold episodes and excess hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Porto, Portugal, in order to further understand the effects of cold weather on health in milder climates. Excess COPD winter morbidity was calculated from admissions for November to March (2000-2007) in the Greater Porto Metropolitan Area (GPMA). Cold spells were identified using several indices (Díaz, World Meteorological Organization, Cold Spell Duration Index, Australian Index and Ondas' Project Index) for the same period. Excess admissions in the periods before and after the occurrence of cold spells were calculated and related to the cold spells identified. The COPD seasonal variation admission coefficient (CVSA) showed excess winter admissions of 59 %, relative to other months. The effect of cold spell on the aggravation of COPD occurs with a lag of at least 2 weeks and differs according to the index used. This study indicates the important role of the persistence of cold periods of at least 2 weeks duration in the increase in COPD admissions. The persistence of moderate temperatures (Tmin ≤5 °C) for a week can be more significant for increasing COPD admissions than very low temperatures (Tmin ≤ 1.6 °C) for just a few days. The Ondas projects' index provides the most accurate detection of the negative impacts of cold persistency on health, while the Diaz index is better at evaluating the consequences of short extreme cold events.

Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.

METHODS

This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.

RESULTS

The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.

Socioeconomic and behavioural risk factors for adverse winter health and social outcomes in economically developed countries: a systematic review of quantitative observational studies

BACKGROUND

Mortality and morbidity rates are often highest during the winter period, particularly in countries with milder climates. A growing body of research has identified potential socioeconomic, housing and behavioural mediators of cold weather-related adverse health and social outcomes, but an inclusive systematic review of this literature has yet to be performed.

METHODS

A systematic review, with narrative synthesis, of observational research published in English between 2001 and 2011, which quantified associations between socioeconomic, housing or behavioural factors and cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Average study quality was not high. Most studies failed to control for all relevant confounding factors, or to conduct research over a long enough period to ascertain causality. Low income, housing conditions and composite fuel poverty measures were most consistently associated with cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified socioeconomic, housing and behavioural factors associated with a range of cold weather-related adverse health or social outcomes. Only tentative conclusions can be drawn due to the limitations of existing research. More robust studies are needed to address the methodological issues identified and uncover causal associations. A review of qualitative and intervention studies would help to inform policies to reduce the adverse health and social impacts of cold weather.

Increased winter mortality: the effect of season, temperature and deprivation in the acutely ill medical patient

BACKGROUND

Studies examining seasonal mortality have found excess winter mortality, particularly in the elderly. We examined the seasonal mortality variations for all emergency medical admissions to St James' Hospital, Dublin, over 10 years (2002-2011). We explored the effects of ambient temperature, deprivation markers, case-mix, co-morbidity and illness severity on seasonal mortality.

METHODS

All emergency admissions to an acute hospital were categorised by season. We examined season as a predictor of 30-day hospital mortality.

RESULTS

30-day in-hospital mortality was lowest in autumn (7.5%) and highest in winter (9.6%). Winter admission had 17% (p=0.009) increased unadjusted risk of a death by day 30 (OR 1.17: 95% CI 1.07, 1.28). A clinical classification system identified that chronic obstructive disease, pneumonia, epilepsy/seizures and congestive heart failure had more presentations in the winter. Multivariate analysis found that winter was not an independent predictor (OR 1.08: 95% CI 0.97, 1.19). Predictors including illness severity and the Charlson Index accounted for the increased risk of winter admission. The minimum daily temperature independently predicted outcome; there was a 20% increased in-hospital death rate when it was colder (OR 1.20: 95% CI 1.09, 1.33; p<0.001). Deprivation was a univariate and multivariate (OR 1.22 95%CI 1.07, 1.39; p=0.002) predictor of mortality, but did not show marked seasonal variation.

CONCLUSION

Patients admitted in the winter have an approximate 17% increased risk of an in-hospital death by 30 days; this is related to cold along with increased illness severity and co-morbidity burden. The disease profile is different with winter admissions.

Association between use of air-conditioning or fan and survival of elderly febrile patients: a prospective study

Elderly individuals are more susceptible to excess summer heat. We sought to examine whether the use of cooling systems (air-conditioning or fan) affected the clinical outcomes of elderly febrile patients. We prospectively followed elderly (≥ 75 years old) febrile patients requesting the medical services of the SOS Doctors (a network of physicians performing house-call visits) from July 10 to August 20, 2011. Patients who used cooling systems ("users") were compared with those who did not ("non-users") regarding mortality, clinical outcome of primary illness (improvement or deterioration), and emergency hospitalization. Prospectively collected data were available for 339 individual elderly febrile patients. "Users" had lower mortality (10 % vs. 19 %, p < 0.05) than "non-users"; no difference was noted on clinical improvement (85 % vs. 76 %, p = 0.11) and emergency hospitalization rates (21 % vs. 30 %, p = 0.16). No difference was noted between users of air-conditioning and fan regarding mortality or clinical improvement, but fan use was associated with more hospitalizations (37 % vs. 19 %, p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis (assessing daily ambient temperature, use of cooling systems, patient age, and living conditions), the sole variable significantly associated with mortality was the non-use of cooling systems [odds ratio (OR): 2.18, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.50]. The use of air-conditioning or fan during hot summer periods appeared to be beneficial for elderly febrile patients living in a large city. Large prospective studies are warranted in order to provide further insight into potential individual and public health initiatives aiming to alleviate the impact of excess summer heat on the health of elderly patients.

Warm homes for older people: aims and methods of a randomised community-based trial for people with COPD

Background

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is of increasing importance with about one in four people estimated to be diagnosed with COPD during their lifetime. None of the existing medications for COPD has been shown to have much effect on the long-term decline in lung function and there have been few recent pharmacotherapeutic advances. Identifying preventive interventions that can reduce the frequency and severity of exacerbations could have important public health benefits. The Warm Homes for Elder New Zealanders study is a community-based trial, designed to test whether a NZ$500 electricity voucher paid into the electricity account of older people with COPD, with the expressed aim of enabling them to keep their homes warm, results in reduced exacerbations and hospitalisation rates. It will also examine whether these subsidies are cost-beneficial.

Methods

Participants had a clinician diagnosis of COPD and had either been hospitalised or taken steroids or antibiotics for COPD in the previous three years; their median age was 71 years. Participants were recruited from three communities between 2009 to early 2011. Where possible, participants’ houses were retrofitted with insulation. After baseline data were received, participants were randomised to either ‘early’ or ‘late’ intervention groups. The intervention was a voucher of $500 directly credited to the participants’ electricity company account. Early group participants received the voucher the first winter they were enrolled in the study, late participants during the second winter. Objective measures included spirometry and indoor temperatures and subjective measures included questions about participant health and wellbeing, heating, medication and visits to health professionals. Objective health care usage data included hospitalisation and primary care visits. Assessments of electricity use were obtained through electricity companies using unique customer numbers.

Discussion

This community trial has successfully enrolled 522 older people with COPD. Baseline data showed that, despite having a chronic respiratory illness, participants are frequently cold in their houses and economise on heating.

Trial Registration

The clinical trial registration is http://NCT01627418

Cold-related mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer: a case-crossover study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to identify the relationship between low temperatures in winter and mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases.

STUDY DESIGN

Case-crossover study.

METHODS

A case-crossover study was performed in Cantabria (northern Spain) in the years 2004-2005; 3948 deaths were included. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression, stratified by age, sex, and delay of exposure to low temperatures.

RESULTS

There was an inverse dose-response relationship between temperature and mortality in the three causes of death studied; this result was consistent across genders and age groups. The higher OR for cancer mortality was seen on the first day of exposure (OR = 4.91; 95% CI: 1.65-13.07 in the whole population), and it decreased when exposure over several days in a row was considered; people aged 75 years or more were especially susceptible to cold temperatures (OR = 17.9; 95% CI: 2.38-134.8). Cardiovascular (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.88-3.67) and respiratory mortality (OR = 2.72; 95% CI: 1.46-5.08) showed a weaker effect.

CONCLUSION

There is a striking association between the extreme cold temperatures and mortality from cancer, not previously reported, which is more remarkable in the elderly. These results could be explained by a harvesting effect in which the cold acts as a trigger of death in terminally ill patients at high risk of dying a few days or weeks later.

Excess winter mortality of Roma population in Serbia, 1992-2007

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are associated with age, outdoor temperature, influenza, health care provision, lifestyle risk factors and economic factors. In the Republic of Serbia almost one half of the Roma population lives in poverty and their housing conditions are very poor. The aim of this paper is to describe and compare excess winter mortality (EWM) in Roma and non-Roma population in Serbia from 1992 to 2007.

METHODS

Using the national mortality database, this study compares EWM index and rates in Roma and general populations in Serbia. Mean winter temperature and ethnicity are analysed against the results for relative EWM by multiple linear regression adjusted for age.

RESULTS

Frequency analysis showed that Roma population had significantly higher EWM rate per 10,000 (129.2 vs. 76.6) for all causes, all respiratory diseases (26.5 vs. 8.0), and chronic lower respiratory diseases (23.0 vs. 5.2) in comparison to non-Roma population. Influenza and pneumonia related deaths represented a small proportion of EWM in both populations. Cardiovascular EWM rate was slightly higher among non-Roma population. Regression analysis demonstrates that Roma ethnicity was associated with significant increase of respiratory EWM rate (regression coefficient (B) = 1.49; 95% CI: 0.45-2.54). There was no relationship between ethnicity and cardiovascular and all causes EWM rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although both Roma and non-Roma populations in Serbia suffer from very high rates of excess winter mortality, Roma are significantly more vulnerable. EWM rate from chronic lower respiratory diseases is more than four times higher among Roma people and suggests that they represent one of the most important health problems in Roma population in Serbia.