Cohort Profile: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health STUDY (TAHS)

Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts

Background

Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention.

Objective

To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile).

Setting

General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively.

Participants

For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41–45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51–55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40–49 and 50–59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407).

Statistical method

Risk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated.

Results

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC_ROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUC_ROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40–49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43.

Conclusion

This novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted ‘COPD cases’ at a much earlier age.

Protein levels, air pollution and vitamin D deficiency: links with allergy

This study provides novel insights into mechanisms of traffic-related air pollution-induced allergy by down-regulation via complement regulators (CFI, PROS1 and PLG) and its interaction with vitamin D deficiency via the complement inhibitor PLG https://bit.ly/3x0jYOw.

Lung function trajectory and biomarkers in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study

Background and objective

Different lung function trajectories through life can lead to COPD in adulthood. This study investigated whether circulating levels of biomarkers can differentiate those with accelerated (AD) from normal decline (ND) trajectories.

Methods

The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a general population study that measured spirometry and followed up participants from ages 7 to 53 years. Based on their forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) trajectories from age 7 to 53 years, this analysis included those with COPD at age 53 years (60 with AD and 94 with ND) and controls (n=720) defined as never-smokers with an average FEV₁ trajectory. Circulating levels of selected biomarkers determined at 53 and 45 years of age were compared between trajectories.

Results

Results showed that CC16 levels (an anti-inflammatory protein) were lower and C-reactive protein (CRP) (a pro-inflammatory marker) higher in the AD than in the ND trajectory. Higher CC16 levels were associated with a decreased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=0.79 (0.63-0.98) per unit increase) relative to ND trajectory. Higher CRP levels were associated with an increased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.00-1.13, per unit increase). Levels of CC16 (area under the curve (AUC)=0.69, 95% CI: 0.56-0.81, p=0.002), CRP (AUC=0.63, 95% CI: 0.53-0.72, p=0.01) and the combination of both (AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.83, p<0.001) were able to discriminate between the AD and ND trajectories. Other quantified biomarkers (interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10 and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)) were not significantly different between AD, ND and controls.

Conclusions

Circulating levels of CRP and CC16 measured in late adulthood identify different lung function trajectories (AD versus ND) leading to COPD at age 53 years.

Bronchodilator reversibility as a diagnostic test for adult asthma: findings from the population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study

Bronchodilator reversibility (BDR) is often used as a diagnostic test for adult asthma. However, there has been limited assessment of its diagnostic utility. We aimed to determine the discriminatory accuracy of common BDR cut-offs in the context of current asthma and asthma–COPD overlap (ACO) in a middle-aged community sample.

The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study is a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (n=8583). In 2012, participants completed respiratory questionnaires and spirometry (n=3609; mean age 53 years). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were fitted for current asthma and ACO using continuous BDR measurements. Diagnostic parameters were calculated for different categorical cut-offs.

Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was highest when BDR was expressed as change in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) as a percentage of initial FEV₁, as compared with predicted FEV₁. The corresponding AUC was 59% (95% CI 54–64%) for current asthma and 87% (95% CI 81–93%) for ACO. Of the categorical cut-offs examined, the European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society threshold (≥12% from baseline and ≥200 mL) was assessed as providing the best balance between positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR−, respectively), with corresponding sensitivities and specificities of 9% and 97%, respectively, for current asthma (LR+ 3.26, LR− 0.93), and 47% and 97%, respectively, for ACO (LR+ 16.05, LR− 0.55).

With a threshold of ≥12% and ≥200 mL from baseline, a positive BDR test provided a clinically meaningful change in the post-test probability of disease, whereas a negative test did not. BDR was more useful as a diagnostic test in those with co-existent post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (ACO).

Using the commonly adopted threshold, a positive BDR test provides a meaningful change in post-test probability of adult asthma, whereas a negative test does not. Discriminatory accuracy is much greater in those with coexistent post-BD airflow obstruction.https://bit.ly/3gPvlm8

The Dose-Response Association between Nitrogen Dioxide Exposure and Serum Interleukin-6 Concentrations

Systemic inflammation is an integral part of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and air pollution is associated with cardiorespiratory mortality, yet the interrelationships are not fully defined. We examined associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure (as a marker of traffic-related air pollution) and pro-inflammatory cytokines, and investigated effect modification and mediation by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO) and cardiovascular risk. Data from middle-aged participants in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS, n = 1389) were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression, using serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) as the outcome. Mean annual NO₂ exposure was estimated at residential addresses using a validated satellite-based land-use regression model. Post-BD-AO was defined by post-BD forced expiratory ratio (FEV₁/FVC) < lower limit of normal, and cardiovascular risk by a history of either cerebrovascular or ischaemic heart disease. We found a positive association with increasing serum IL-6 concentration (geometric mean 1.20 (95% CI: 1.1 to 1.3, p = 0.001) per quartile increase in NO₂). This was predominantly a direct relationship, with little evidence for either effect modification or mediation via post-BD-AO, or for the small subgroup who reported cardiovascular events. However, there was some evidence consistent with serum IL-6 being on the causal pathway between NO₂ and cardiovascular risk. These findings raise the possibility that the interplay between air pollution and systemic inflammation may differ between post-BD airflow obstruction and cardiovascular diseases.

The interaction between farming/rural environment and TLR2, TLR4, TLR6 and CD14 genetic polymorphisms in relation to early- and late-onset asthma

Asthma phenotypes based on age-of-onset may be differently influenced by the interaction between variation in toll-like receptor (TLR)/CD14 genes and environmental microbes. We examined the associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the TLR/CD14 genes and asthma, and their interaction with proxies of microbial exposure (childhood farm exposure and childhood rural environment). Ten SNPs in four genes (TLR2, TLR4, TLR6, CD14) were genotyped for 1,116 participants from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS). Using prospectively collected information, asthma was classified as never, early- (before 13 years) or late-onset (after 13 years). Information on childhood farm exposure/childhood rural environment was collected at baseline. Those with early-onset asthma were more likely to be males, had a family history of allergy and a personal history of childhood atopy. We found significant interaction between TLR6 SNPs and childhood farm exposure. For those with childhood farm exposure, carriers of the TLR6-rs1039559 T-allele (p-interaction = 0.009) and TLR6-rs5743810 C-allele (p-interaction = 0.02) were associated with lower risk of early-onset asthma. We suggest the findings to be interpreted as hypothesis-generating as the interaction effect did not withstand correction for multiple testing. In this large, population-based longitudinal study, we found that the risk of early- and late-onset asthma is differently influenced by the interaction between childhood farming exposure and genetic variations.

Mould-sensitized adults have lower Th2 cytokines and a higher prevalence of asthma than those sensitized to other aeroallergens

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that specific allergen sensitizations are associated with different allergic diseases which may reflect different underlying immune profiles. We aimed to examine the cytokine profiles of individuals sensitized to eight common aeroallergens.

METHODS

We used data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study a population-based cohort study of 45-year-olds. Serum cytokines (IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α) were measured in 1157 subjects using the LINCOplex assays. Participants underwent skin prick testing for house dust mite, cat, grasses and moulds. Multivariable linear regression was used to compare serum cytokine levels between sensitized and nonatopic subjects.

RESULTS

The prevalence of allergic sensitization to any aeroallergen was 51% (95% CI 47-54). Being sensitized to any aeroallergen was strongly associated with current asthma (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3), and being sensitized to any moulds was associated with a very high risk of current asthma (OR = 6.40, 95% CI 4.06-10.1). The geometric mean (GM) levels of Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-5 and IL-6) for adults sensitized to Cladosporium were significantly lower than the levels for nonatopic individuals (IL-4 ratio of GMs = 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.62, P = 0.003; IL-5 GM = 0.55, 95% CI 0.30-0.99, P = 0.05; and IL-6 GM = 0.50, 95% CI 0.24-1.07, P = 0.07). Individuals sensitized to other aeroallergens all showed elevated Th2 cytokine levels.

CONCLUSION

Our study is the first large population-based study to demonstrate reduced Th2 cytokines levels in people sensitized to mould. Underlying biological mechanisms driving allergic inflammatory responses in adults sensitized to moulds may differ from those sensitized to other aeroallergens. These findings suggest that it may be necessary to tailor treatments in individuals sensitized to moulds compared with other aeroallergens in order to optimize outcomes.