Cytomegalovirus Viremia Predicts Postdischarge Mortality in Kenyan HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019-2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P < .20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 1933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (IQR) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were males. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (aOR 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Could Herpesviridae be the cause of severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children?

INTRODUCTION

Severe acute hepatitis (SAH) is defined by a severe inflammation of hepatocytes in the liver parenchyma which can lead to an acute liver failure, a clinical condition with high mortality rate that can be triggered by several factors but is usually associated to hepatotropic viruses' infection. In 2022, cases of children with severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin hospitalized in Glasgow, Scotland, were reported. Possible causes of this condition include, but are not limited to, undiagnosed viral (and non-viral) infections, autoimmune hepatitis, drug and/or chemical toxicity, mitochondrial chain respiratory and metabolic disorders.

AREAS COVERED

Herpesviruses can cause severe acute hepatitis, but little is known about the role and the mechanisms of herpesviruses as a causative agent of this type of hepatitis. We review the role of herpesviruses as causative agent of SAH in children and other possible mechanisms involved in this disease.

EXPERT OPINION

Differential diagnosis for herpesvirus in SAH should be implemented in all settings. Alternative fluids, such as saliva and dried blood, could be used in the diagnosis to overwhelm the availability of biological specimens at sufficient volume. In the future, genetic studies could also be added to increase the knowledge about severe acute hepatitis in children.

Cytomegalovirus viremia in HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed infants in Malawi

In sub-Saharan Africa the great majority of infants acquire Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection within the first year of life. Maternal long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been suggested to reduce the rate of CMV acquisition in HIV-exposed infants. In the present study serum samples collected at 6 months of age from HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed infants were analyzed for the presence of CMV DNA (with CMV positivity defined by levels of CMV DNA > 1000 UI/ml). Twenty out of 58 (34.5%) infants had CMV DNA > 1000 UI/ml. There was no difference in the prevalence of CMV viremia between HIV-exposed and -unexposed infants [33.3% (15/45) vs 38.5% (5/13), respectively, P = 0.488]. In the HIV-exposed group, mothers of CMV-negative infants had received a longer antiretroviral treatment before delivery in comparison to mothers of CMV-positive infants (28 vs 3 months, P = 0.187). No differences in weights and lengths at birth, and at 1, 6 and 12 months were observed between CMV-positive and CMV-negative infants. In this study, the prevalence of CMV viremia at six months of age was high in infants born to HIV-positive mothers receiving long-term ART, similar to that of HIV-unexposed infants. Considering the possible relevant impact of CMV on infant health, strategies for containment of the infection should be explored.

Predictors of early death risk among untransplanted patients with combined immunodeficiencies affecting cellular and humoral immunity: A multicenter report

BACKGROUND

There is an increased demand for hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) to treat various diseases including combined immunodeficiencies (CID), with limited worldwide availability. Variables affecting the decision regarding CID patients' prioritization for HSCT are not known. We aimed to determine general, clinical, and immunologic factors associated with the higher risk of early death (≤6 months after diagnosis) in untransplanted CID patients.

METHODS

Data collection was done retrospectively from five centers and included general patients' information, and clinical and laboratory variables. Inclusion criteria were untransplanted patients who are either dead or alive with a follow-up period ≥6 months after diagnosis.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty-six CID patients were reported by participating centers, of whom 111 were included in the study with a cumulative follow-up period of 278.6 years. Seventy-two patients died with the median age of death of 10.5 months. 35.1% of the patients succumbed within 6 months after the diagnosis. Having a history of Candida infections, sepsis or hepatomegaly was associated with an increased risk of early death. None of the other general or clinical variables was associated with such risk. Bivariate analysis of lymphocyte subsets showed that patients with the following counts: CD3⁺  < 100, CD4⁺  < 200, CD8⁺  < 50, or CD16⁺ CD56⁺ <200 cells/μl had increased risk of early death. In adjusted analysis, increased risk of early death was observed among patients with CD3⁺ count <100 cells/μl.

CONCLUSION

Combined immunodeficiencies patients with a history of Candida infections, sepsis, hepatomegaly, or severe T-lymphopenia should be given priority for HSCT to avoid early death.