Substantial Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Households With Children During the 2013-2014 Influenza Season, When 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Predominated

Evaluating the impact of school-based influenza vaccination programme on absenteeism and outbreaks at schools in Hong Kong: a retrospective cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal influenza causes annual school breaks and student absenteeism in Hong Kong schools and kindergartens. This proposal aims to conduct a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the impact of a school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) programme on absenteeism and outbreaks at schools in Hong Kong.

METHODS

The study will compare schools that implemented the SIV programme with schools that did not. The data will be sourced from school records, encompassing absenteeism records, outbreak reports, and vaccination rates. We will recruit 1000 students from 381 schools and kindergartens in 18 districts of Hong Kong starting June 2024. The primary outcome measures will include absenteeism rates due to influenza and school influenza outbreaks. Secondary outcomes will consist of vaccination coverage rates and the impact of the SIV programme on hospitalisations due to influenza-like illness. A t-test will be conducted to compare the outcomes between schools with and without the SIV programme.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The school completed signing the participants' informed consent form before reporting the data to us. Our study has been approved by the Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster IRB Committee (IRB No: UW 17-111) and was a subtopic of the research "The estimated age-group specific influenza vaccine coverage rates in Hong Kong and the impact of the school outreach vaccination program".

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study will be retrospectively registered.

Comparing the Etiology of Viral Acute Respiratory Illnesses Between Children Who Do and Do Not Attend Childcare

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Childcare attendance is a common risk factor for acute respiratory illness (ARI) in young children. Our goal was to better understand the specific respiratory viruses that predominate in childcare, which may support the development of tailored illness prevention and intervention strategies in childcare settings.

METHODS

Using data from a prospective household cohort of ARI surveillance, we assessed specimen from 1418 ARIs reported by 359 childcare-aged children over 6 study seasons (2012/2013 through 2017/2018). Respiratory swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for 9 respiratory viruses. A mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to compare odds of various viral detection outcomes. The Shannon's Diversity index was used to compare the richness (ie, number of species) and diversity (ie, relative species abundance) associated with respiratory viruses detected in both groups.

RESULTS

At least 1 virus was detected in 75.5% of childcare-associated ARIs and in 80.1% of homecare ARIs. Compared with illnesses among homecare children, childcare illnesses were associated with significantly higher odds of detected adenovirus (odds ratio = 1.86, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-3.28) and human metapneumovirus (odds ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.03-3.0). The pool of viruses associated with childcare ARI was found to be significantly richer and more diverse than that of viruses associated with homecare ARI (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Children attending childcare experience a higher risk of adenovirus and human metapneumovirus infection and are regularly exposed to a rich and diverse pool of respiratory viruses in childcare environments. Our results underscore the necessity of thorough and multifaceted viral prevention strategies in childcare settings.

Does repeated influenza vaccination attenuate effectiveness? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccines require annual readministration; however, several reports have suggested that repeated vaccination might attenuate the vaccine's effectiveness. We aimed to estimate the reduction in vaccine effectiveness associated with repeated influenza vaccination.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Complete databases for articles published from Jan 1, 2016, to June 13, 2022, and Web of Science for studies published from database inception to June 13, 2022. For studies published before Jan 1, 2016, we consulted published systematic reviews. Two reviewers (EJ-G and EJR) independently screened, extracted data using a data collection form, assessed studies' risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) and evaluated the weight of evidence by Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). We included observational studies and randomised controlled trials that reported vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), or influenza B using four vaccination groups: current season; previous season; current and previous seasons; and neither season (reference). For each study, we calculated the absolute difference in vaccine effectiveness (ΔVE) for current season only and previous season only versus current and previous season vaccination to estimate attenuation associated with repeated vaccination. Pooled vaccine effectiveness and ∆VE were calculated by season, age group, and overall. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021260242.

FINDINGS

We identified 4979 publications, selected 681 for full review, and included 83 in the systematic review and 41 in meta-analyses. ΔVE for vaccination in both seasons compared with the current season was -9% (95% CI -16 to -1, I²=0%; low certainty) for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, -18% (-26 to -11, I²=7%; low certainty) for influenza A(H3N2), and -7% (-14 to 0, I²=0%; low certainty) for influenza B, indicating lower protection with consecutive vaccination. However, for all types, A subtypes and B lineages, vaccination in both seasons afforded better protection than not being vaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that, although vaccination in the previous year attenuates vaccine effectiveness, vaccination in two consecutive years provides better protection than does no vaccination. The estimated effects of vaccination in the previous year are concerning and warrant additional investigation, but are not consistent or severe enough to support an alternative vaccination regimen at this time.

FUNDING

WHO and the US National Institutes of Health.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness: Analysis of the Impact of Repeated Vaccinations in Military Health System Beneficiaries

Background

Influenza has long burdened the Military Health System (MHS). This study assesses the impact of repeated annual vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Methods

This retrospective, case control study using the test-negative design utilized data extracted from the MHS Data Repository (MDR). Cases had a positive influenza test and controls sought care for an influenza-like illness within 2 weeks of a case, had no positive influenza tests, and were matched by sex, race, age, and location. Vaccine effectiveness was assessed using conditional logistic regression separately for those who received inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIV).

Results

A total of 6860 cases and controls were identified in the MDR, among whom 53% were vaccinated in all 3 seasons. Among those who received inactivated influenza vaccine during the current season, VE ranged from 26% to 37% (2012/13 [A(H3N2)]: VE 26%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1%-45%; 2013/14 [A(H1N1)pdm09]: VE 37%, 95% CI = 18%-52%; 2014/15 [A(H3N2)]: VE 31%, 95% CI = 17%-42%). The VE ranged from 25% to 49% for those only vaccinated this season (2012/13 [A(H3N2)]: VE 38%, 95% CI = -3% to 63%; 2013/14 [A(H1N1)pdm09]: VE 49%, 95% CI = 11%-71%; 2014/15 [A(H3N2)]: VE 25%, 95% CI = -7% to 48%). The VE was more variable in those who received LAIV in the current season. No statistically significant differences in VE were observed between those frequently vaccinated and those vaccinated only during the current season.

Conclusions

These results underscore the value of annual influenza vaccinations for preventing infection while highlighting the need for continued improvements in influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Effects of Prior Season Vaccination on Current Season Vaccine Effectiveness in the United States Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network, 2012-2013 Through 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

We compared effects of prior vaccination and added or lost protection from current season vaccination among those previously vaccinated.

METHODS

Our analysis included data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network among participants ≥9 years old with acute respiratory illness from 2012-2013 through 2017-2018. Vaccine protection was estimated using multivariate logistic regression with an interaction term for effect of prior season vaccination on current season vaccine effectiveness. Models were adjusted for age, calendar time, high-risk status, site, and season for combined estimates. We estimated protection by combinations of current and prior vaccination compared to unvaccinated in both seasons or current vaccination among prior vaccinated.

RESULTS

A total of 31 819 participants were included. Vaccine protection against any influenza averaged 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 38%-47%) among those vaccinated only the current season, 37% (95% CI, 33-40) among those vaccinated both seasons, and 26% (95% CI, 18%-32%) among those vaccinated only the prior season, compared with participants vaccinated neither season. Current season vaccination reduced the odds of any influenza among patients unvaccinated the prior season by 42% (95% CI, 37%-46%), including 57%, 27%, and 55% against A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and influenza B, respectively. Among participants vaccinated the prior season, current season vaccination further reduced the odds of any influenza by 15% (95% CI, 7%-23%), including 29% against A(H1N1) and 26% against B viruses, but not against A(H3N2).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations for annual influenza vaccination. Benefits of current season vaccination varied among participants with and without prior season vaccination, by virus type/subtype and season.

Dynamic Propagation and Impact of Pandemic Influenza A (2009 H1N1) in Children: A Detailed Review

Influenza is a highly contagious respiratory infection caused by the circulating Swine flu virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the unique blending strain of influenza A H1N1 2009 (Swine Flu) is a pandemic affecting several geographical regions, including India. Previous literature indicates that children are "drivers" of influenza pandemics. At present, satisfactory data were not available to accurately estimate the role of children in the spread of influenza (in particular 2009 pandemic influenza). However, the role of children in the spread of pandemics influenza is unclear. Several studies in children have indicated that the immunization program decreased the occurrence of influenza, emphasizing the significance of communities impacted by global immunization programs. This article provides a brief overview on how children are a key contributor to pandemic Influenza A (2009 H1N1) and we would like to draw your attention to the need for a new vaccine for children to improve disease prevention and a positive impact on the community.

Impact of Pre-Existing Immunity to Influenza on Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) Immunogenicity

During the previous influenza seasons, between 2010 and 2016, the live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) provided variable efficacy against influenza in the U.S., causing the recommendation against the use of the LAIV. In striking contrast, pre-clinical studies have repeatedly demonstrated superior efficacy of LAIV against mismatched influenza viruses, compared to inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV). This disparity in reported vaccine efficacies between pre-clinical and clinical studies may in part be explained by limitations of the animal models of influenza. In particular, the absence of pre-existing immunity in animal models has recently emerged as a potential explanation for the discrepancies between preclinical findings and human studies. This commentary focuses on the potential impact of pre-existing immunity on LAIV induced immunogenicity with an emphasis on cross-protective immunity.

The Effects of Imprinting and Repeated Seasonal Influenza Vaccination on Adaptive Immunity after Influenza Vaccination

(1) Background: The influenza virus continues to cause significant annual morbidity and mortality. The overall efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccination is suboptimal, which is partly due to host immune factors. The effects of imprinting and repeated seasonal influenza vaccination were investigated to assess for immune factors and mechanisms that impact influenza vaccine responses. (2) Methods: Twenty participants were enrolled into a prospective pilot study based on birth cohort and seasonal influenza immunization history. Immunologic parameters were assessed over a six-month period after the seasonal influenza vaccine was administered. (3) Results: There was no significant imprinting effect, as measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) fold change, HAI geometric mean titer (GMT) for Day 29 or Day 180 post-vaccination and antigen- specific antibody-secreting cells (ASC) for Day 8 post-vaccination. Individuals who had minimal prior seasonal influenza vaccination had a higher magnitude ASC response and a higher HAI fold change post-vaccination than individuals who were repeatedly vaccinated. (4) Conclusions: Repeated seasonal influenza vaccination resulted in a decreased fold change of the immune response, although individuals in this cohort tended to have high HAI titers at baseline that persisted after vaccination. Imprinting effects were not observed in this cohort. These host immune factors should be considered in the development of universal influenza vaccines. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03686514.

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

A Population-Based Propensity Score-Matched Study to Assess the Impact of Repeated Vaccination on Vaccine Effectiveness for Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Among the Elderly

Background

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly worldwide. Influenza vaccination can prevent morbidity/mortality from influenza infection. A gap of 1–2 years, before an epidemic strain is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be the vaccine strain in Southeast Asia, has been reported; this results in a high rate of vaccine mismatch and excess influenza-associated morbidity. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effect of repeated vaccination on vaccine effectiveness (VE) among the elderly in Taiwan, during years with and without early appearance of antigenically drifted strains.

Methods

A historical cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of repeated vaccination on the reduction of influenza-associated hospitalization among persons older than 64 years over two influenza seasons: 2007–08, with all circulating virus strains mismatched, and 2008–09, with all virus strains matched with the vaccine strains, considering four exposure effects, namely current vaccine effect, sequential vaccination effect, residual protection effect and no vaccination effect. Propensity score matching on vaccination status was performed to ensure similar baseline characteristics between the groups that received and did not receive vaccination.

Results

Only current-year vaccination in combination with prior history of annual revaccination significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization, with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.85) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.95) during the 2007–08 and 2008–09 influenza seasons, respectively. Further stratification showed that even during the 2007–08 influenza season, when all vaccinations were mismatched with the circulating strains, sequential vaccinations still significantly reduced influenza-associated hospitalization in the female population aged 68–74 and 75–84 years, with adjusted VE of 25.2% (95% CI: −9.6, 49.0%) and 36.9% (95% CI: 17.1, 52.0%), respectively.

Conclusion

Our study supports the recommendation of annual revaccination against influenza in the elderly, even though the circulating strain of influenza virus was antigenically mismatched with the vaccine strains.

Influenza B Viruses Exhibit Lower Within-Host Diversity than Influenza A Viruses in Human Hosts

Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.

Dose-Dependent Negative Effects of Prior Multiple Vaccinations Against Influenza A and Influenza B Among Schoolchildren: A Study of Kamigoto Island in Japan During the 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 Influenza Seasons

Background

We investigated the negative effects of prior multiple vaccinations on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and analyzed the association of VE with prior vaccine doses.

Methods

Patients aged 9-18 years presenting with influenza-like illness at a community hospital on a remote Japanese island during the 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 influenza seasons were tested for influenza using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A test-negative, case-control study design was used to estimate the VEs of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine. Histories of vaccination and medically attended influenza (MA-flu) A and B during 3 previous seasons were collected from registry systems. VE was calculated using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models adjusted for the history of RDT-confirmed MA-flu.

Results

During 3 influenza seasons, 1668 influenza-like illness episodes were analyzed, including 421 and 358 episodes of MA-fluA and MA-fluB, respectively. The adjusted VE (95% confidence interval) yielded significant dose-dependent attenuations by prior vaccinations against both MA-fluA (0 doses during previous 3 seasons: 96% [69%-100%], 1 dose: 48% [-7% to 74%], 2 doses: 52% [11%-74%], 3 doses: 21% [-25% to 51%]; P for trend < .05) and MA-fluB (0 doses: 66% [-5% to 89%], 1 dose: 48% [-14% to 76%], 2 doses: 34% [-33% to 67%], 3 doses: -7% [-83% to 37%]; P for trend < .05). After excluding episodes of MA-flu during prior 3 seasons, similar trends were observed.

Conclusions

Repeated previous vaccinations over multiple seasons had significant dose-dependent negative impacts on VE against both MA-fluA and MA-fluB. Further studies to confirm this finding are necessary.

Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States

Background

The seasonal incidence of influenza is often approximated as 5%-20%.

Methods

We used 2 methods to estimate the seasonal incidence of symptomatic influenza in the United States. First, we made a statistical estimate extrapolated from influenza-associated hospitalization rates for 2010-2011 to 2015-2016, collected as part of national surveillance, covering approximately 9% of the United States, and including the existing mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Second, we performed a literature search and meta-analysis of published manuscripts that followed cohorts of subjects during 1996-2016 to detect laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza among unvaccinated persons; we adjusted this result to the US median vaccination coverage and effectiveness during 2010-2016.

Results

The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%-11.3% among seasons, with median values of 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3%-9.7%) for all ages, 9.3% (95% CI, 8.2%-11.1%) for children <18 years, and 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2%-9.9%) for adults 18-64 years. Corresponding values for the meta-analysis were 7.1% (95% CI, 6.1%-8.1%) for all ages, 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.5%) for children, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.6%) for adults.

Conclusions

The 2 approaches produced comparable results for children and persons of all ages. The statistical estimates are more versatile and permit estimation of season-to-season variation. During 2010-2016, the incidence of symptomatic influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents, including both medically attended and nonattended infections, was approximately 8% and varied from 3% to 11% among seasons.

Dose effect of influenza vaccine on protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among children aged 6 months to 8 years of age in southern China, 2013/14-2015/16 seasons: a matched case-control study

Background We conducted a matched case-control study in China during the 2013/14-2015/16 influenza seasons to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by dose among children aged 6 months to 8 years.Methods Cases were laboratory-confirmed influenza infections identified through the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance network in Guangzhou. Age- and sex-matched community controls were randomly selected through the expanded immunization program database. We defined priming as receipt of ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine during the immediate prior season.Results In total, 4,185 case-control pairs were analyzed. Among children 6-35 months, VE for current season dose(s) across the three seasons during 2013/14-2015/16 were 59% (95% Confidence Interval: 44-71%), 12% (-11%,30%), 54% (32-69%); among unprimed children 6-35 months, VE for 1 vs 2 current season doses were 45% (8-67%) vs 65% (46-78%), -2% (-53%,32%) vs 19% (-11%,40%), and 37% (-24%,68%) vs 61% (32-78%). Among children aged 3-8 years, VE for current season dose(s) across study seasons were 62% (36-78%), 43% (22-58%), 32% (1-53%). VE for unprimed children receiving 1 dose only in current season was insignificant or lower than among all children.Conclusion Findings support utility of providing second dose ("booster dose") of seasonal influenza vaccine to unprimed children aged 6-35 months, and the need to study further dose effect of a booster dose among unprimed children aged 3-8 years in China.

Challenges in estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness

Introduction: Influenza vaccination is regarded as the most effective way to prevent influenza infection. Due to the rapid genetic changes that influenza viruses undergo, seasonal influenza vaccines must be reformulated and re-administered annually necessitating the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year. The estimation of influenza VE presents numerous challenges. Areas Covered: This review aims to identify, discuss, and, where possible, offer suggestions for dealing with the following challenges in estimating influenza VE: different outcomes of interest against which VE is estimated, study designs used to assess VE, sources of bias and confounding, repeat vaccination, waning immunity, population level effects of vaccination, and VE in at-risk populations. Expert Opinion: The estimation of influenza VE has improved with surveillance networks, better understanding of sources of bias and confounding, and the implementation of advanced statistical methods. Future research should focus on better estimates of the indirect effects of vaccination, the biological effects of vaccination, and how vaccines interact with the immune system. Specifically, little is known about how influenza vaccination impacts an individual's infectiousness, how vaccines wane over time, and the impact of repeated vaccination.

Beyond Antigenic Match: Possible Agent-Host and Immuno-epidemiological Influences on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2015-2016 Season in Canada

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates for 2015-2016 seasonal influenza vaccine are reported from Canada's Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN). This season was characterized by a delayed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) epidemic and concurrent influenza B(Victoria) virus activity. Potential influences on VE beyond antigenic match are explored, including viral genomic variation, birth cohort effects, prior vaccination, and epidemic period.

Methods

VE was estimated by a test-negative design comparing the adjusted odds ratio for influenza test positivity among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by gene sequencing and hemagglutination inhibition assay.

Results

Analyses included 596 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 305 B(Victoria) cases and 926 test-negative controls. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses were considered antigenically related to vaccine (unchanged since 2009), despite phylogenetic clustering within emerging clade 6B.1. The adjusted VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%-57%). Compared to other age groups, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was lower for adults born during 1957-1976 (25%; 95% CI, -16%-51%). The VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was also lower for participants consecutively vaccinated during both the current and prior seasons (41%; 95% CI, 18%-57%) than for those vaccinated during the current season only (75%; 95% CI, 45%-88%), and the VE among participants presenting in March-April 2016 (19%; 95% CI, -15%-44%) was lower than that among those presenting during January-February 2016 (62%; 95% CI, 44%-74%). The adjusted VE for B(Victoria) viruses was 54% (95% CI, 32%-68%), despite lineage-level mismatch to B(Yamagata) vaccine. The further variation in VE as observed for A(H1N1)pdm09 was not observed for B(Victoria).

Conclusions

Influenza VE findings may require consideration of other agent-host and immuno-epidemiologic influences on vaccine performance beyond antigenic match, including viral genomic variation, repeat vaccination, birth (immunological) cohort effects, and potential within-season waning of vaccine protection.

A Dynamic Model for Evaluation of the Bias of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates From Observational Studies

Given that influenza vaccination is now widely recommended in the United States, observational studies based on patients with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remain as the only option to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We developed a dynamic probability model to evaluate bias of VE estimates from passive surveillance cohort, test-negative, and traditional case-control studies. The model includes 2 covariates (health status and health awareness) that might affect the probabilities of vaccination, developing ARI, and seeking medical care. Our results suggest that test-negative studies produce unbiased estimates of VE against medically attended influenza when: 1) Vaccination does not affect the probability of noninfluenza ARI; and 2) health status has the same effect on the probability of influenza and noninfluenza ARIs. The same estimate might be severely biased (i.e., estimated VE - true VE ≥ 0.20) for estimating VE against symptomatic influenza if the vaccine affects the probability of seeking care against influenza ARI. VE estimates from test-negative studies might also be severely biased for both outcomes of interest when vaccination affects the probability of noninfluenza ARI, but estimates from passive surveillance cohort studies are unbiased in this case. Finally, VE estimates from traditional case-control studies suffer from bias regardless of the source of bias.

The impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Conflicting results regarding the impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may cause confusion regarding the benefits of receiving the current season's vaccine.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature from database inception to August 17, 2016, for observational studies published in English that reported VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza for the following four vaccination groups: current season only, prior season only, both seasons, and neither season. We pooled differences in VE (∆VE) between vaccination groups by influenza season and type/subtype using a random-effects model. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42016037241).

RESULTS

We identified 3435 unique articles, reviewed the full text of 634, and included 20 for meta-analysis. Compared to prior season vaccination only, vaccination in both seasons was associated with greater protection against influenza H1N1 (∆VE = 25%; 95% CI 14%, 35%) and B (∆VE = 18%; 95% CI 3%, 33%), but not H3N2 (∆VE = 7%; 95% CI - 7%, 21%). Compared to no vaccination for either season, individuals who received the current season's vaccine had greater protection against H1N1 (∆VE = 62%; 95% CI 51%, 70%), H3N2 (∆VE = 45%; 95% CI 35%, 53%), and B (∆VE = 64%; 95% CI 57%, 71%). We observed no differences in VE between vaccination in both seasons and the current season only for H1N1 (∆VE = 3%; 95% CI - 8%, 13%), but less protection against influenza H3N2 (∆VE = - 20%; 95% CI - 36%, - 4%), and B (∆VE = - 11%; 95% CI - 20%, - 2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support current season vaccination regardless of prior season vaccination because VE for vaccination in the current season only is higher compared to no vaccination in either season for all types/subtypes, and for H1N1 and influenza B, vaccination in both seasons provides better VE than vaccination in the prior season only. Although VE was lower against H3N2 and B for individuals vaccinated in both seasons compared to those vaccinated in the current season only, it should be noted that past vaccination history cannot be altered and this comparison disregards susceptibility to influenza during the prior season among those vaccinated in the current season only. In addition, our results for H3N2 were particularly influenced by the 2014-2015 influenza season and the impact of repeated vaccination for all types/subtypes may vary from season to season. It is important that future VE studies include vaccination history over multiple seasons to evaluate repeated vaccination in more detail.

Association of Prior Vaccination With Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Children Receiving Live Attenuated or Inactivated Vaccine

IMPORTANCE

Some studies have reported negative effects of prior-season influenza vaccination. Prior-season influenza vaccination effects on vaccine effectiveness (VE) in children are not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of prior-season influenza vaccination with subsequent VE in children aged 2 to 17 years.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multiseason, test-negative case-control study was conducted in outpatient clinics at 4 US sites among children aged 2 to 17 years with a medically attended febrile acute respiratory illness. Participants were recruited during the 2013-2014, 2014-2015, and 2015-2016 seasons when influenza circulated locally. Cases were children with influenza confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Test-negative control individuals were children with negative test results for influenza.

EXPOSURES

Vaccination history, including influenza vaccine type received in the enrollment season (live attenuated influenza vaccine [LAIV], inactivated influenza vaccine [IIV], or no vaccine) and season before enrollment (LAIV, IIV, or no vaccine), determined from medical records and immunization registries.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

LAIV and IIV effectiveness by influenza type and subtype (influenza A[H1N1]pdm09, influenza A[H3N2], or influenza B), estimated as 100 × (1 - odds ratio) in a logistic regression model with adjustment for potential confounders. Prior season vaccination associations were assessed with an interaction term.

RESULTS

Of 3369 children (1749 [52%] male; median age, 6.6 years [range, 2-17 years]) included in the analysis, 772 (23%) had a positive test result for influenza and 1674 (50%) were vaccinated in the enrollment season. Among LAIV recipients, VE against influenza A(H3N2) was higher among children vaccinated in both the enrollment and 1 prior season (50.3% [95% CI, 17.0% to 70.2%]) than among those without 1 prior season vaccination (-82.4% [95% CI, -267.5% to 9.5%], interaction P < .001). The effectiveness of LAIV against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was not associated with prior season vaccination among those with prior season vaccination (47.5% [95% CI, 11.4% to 68.9%]) and among those without prior season vaccination (7.8% [95% CI, -101.9% to 57.9%]) (interaction P = .37). Prior season vaccination was not associated with effectiveness of IIV against influenza A(H3N2) (38.7% [95% CI, 6.8% to 59.6%] among those with prior-season vaccination and 23.2% [95% CI, -38.3% to 57.4%] among those without prior-season vaccination, interaction P = .16) or with effectiveness of IIV against influenza A[H1N1]pdm09 (72.4% [95% CI, 56.0% to 82.7%] among those with prior season vaccination and 67.5% [95% CI, 32.1% to 84.4%] among those without prior season vaccination, interaction P = .93). Residual protection from prior season vaccination only (no vaccination in the enrollment season) was observed for influenza B (LAIV: 60.0% [95% CI, 36.8% to 74.7%]; IIV: 60.0% [36.9% to 74.6%]). Similar results were observed in analyses that included repeated vaccination in 2 and 3 prior seasons.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Influenza VE varied by influenza type and subtype and vaccine type, but prior-season vaccination was not associated with reduced VE. These findings support current recommendations for annual influenza vaccination of children.

Sera from Individuals with Narrowly Focused Influenza Virus Antibodies Rapidly Select Viral Escape Mutations In Ovo

Influenza viruses use distinct antibody escape mechanisms depending on the overall complexity of the antibody response that is encountered. When grown in the presence of a hemagglutinin (HA) monoclonal antibody, influenza viruses typically acquire a single HA mutation that reduces the binding of that specific monoclonal antibody. In contrast, when confronted with mixtures of HA monoclonal antibodies or polyclonal sera that have antibodies that bind several HA epitopes, influenza viruses acquire mutations that increase HA binding to host cells. Recent data from our laboratory and others suggest that some humans possess antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in influenza virus strains that they were likely exposed to in childhood. Here, we completed a series of experiments to determine if humans with narrowly focused HA antibody responses are able to select for influenza virus antigenic escape variants in ovo We identified three human donors that possessed HA antibody responses that were heavily focused on a single HA antigenic site. Sera from all three of these donors selected single HA escape mutations during in ovo passage experiments, similar to what has been previously reported for single monoclonal antibodies. These single HA mutations directly reduced binding of serum antibodies used for selection. We propose that new antigenic variants of influenza viruses might originate in individuals who produce antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered in childhood.IMPORTANCE Influenza vaccine strains must be updated frequently since circulating viral strains continuously change in antigenically important epitopes. Our previous studies have demonstrated that some individuals possess antibody responses that are narrowly focused on epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered during childhood. Here, we show that influenza viruses rapidly escape this type of polyclonal antibody response when grown in ovo by acquiring single mutations that directly prevent antibody binding. These studies improve our understanding of how influenza viruses evolve when confronted with narrowly focused polyclonal human antibodies.

Effectiveness of Live Attenuated vs Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Children During the 2012-2013 Through 2015-2016 Influenza Seasons in Alberta, Canada: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Study

IMPORTANCE

Recent observational studies report conflicting results regarding the effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), particularly against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of LAIV and inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A test-negative study to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) using population-based, linked, individual-level laboratory, health administrative, and immunization data. Data were obtained from 10 169 children and adolescents aged 2 to 17 years (children) who were tested for influenza in inpatient or outpatient settings during periods when influenza was circulating based on a threshold level of 5% weekly test positivity for the province during the 4 influenza seasons spanning from November 11, 2012, to April 30, 2016, in Alberta, Canada. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE by vaccine type, influenza season, and influenza type and subtype. The relative effectiveness of each vaccine type was assessed by comparing the odds of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection for LAIV recipients with that for IIV recipients.

EXPOSURES

The primary exposure was receipt of LAIV or IIV before testing for influenza.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was influenza case status as determined by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction testing.

RESULTS

A total of 10 779 respiratory specimens (from 10 169 children) collected and tested for influenza during the 4 influenza seasons were included, with 53.4% from males; the mean (SD) age was 7.0 (4.6) years. Across the 4 influenza seasons, 3161 children tested positive for influenza. Combining the 4 influenza seasons, the adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 69% (95% CI, 56%-78%) for LAIV compared with 79% (95% CI, 70%-86%) for IIV. Vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) was 36% (95% CI, 14%-53%) for LAIV and 43% (95% CI, 22%-59%) for IIV. Against influenza B, VE was 74% (95% CI, 62%-82%) for LAIV and 56% (95% CI, 41%-66%) for IIV. There were no significant differences in the odds of influenza infection for LAIV recipients compared with IIV recipients except for influenza B during the 2015-2016 season, when LAIV recipients had lower odds of infection than IIV recipients (odds ratio, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.17-0.76).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There was no evidence to support the lack of effectiveness of LAIV against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These results support administration of either vaccine type in this age group.

Identification of human vaccinees that possess antibodies targeting the egg-adapted hemagglutinin receptor binding site of an H1N1 influenza vaccine strain

Human influenza viruses passaged in eggs often acquire mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) receptor binding site (RBS). To determine if egg-adapted H1N1 vaccines commonly elicit antibodies targeting the egg-adapted RBS of HA, we completed hemagglutinin-inhibition assays with A/California/7/2009 HA and egg-adapted A/California/7/2009-X-179A HA using sera collected from 159 humans vaccinated with seasonal influenza vaccines during the 2015-16 season. We found that ∼5% of participants had ≥4-fold higher antibody titers to the egg-adapted viral strain compared to wild type viral strain. We used reverse-genetics to demonstrate that a single egg-adapted HA RBS mutation (Q226R) was responsible for this phenotype.

Immune History and Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

The imperfect effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is often blamed on antigenic mismatch, but even when the match appears good, effectiveness can be surprisingly low. Seasonal influenza vaccines also stand out for their variable effectiveness by age group from year to year and by recent vaccination status. These patterns suggest a role for immune history in influenza vaccine effectiveness, but inference is complicated by uncertainty about the contributions of bias to the estimates themselves. In this review, we describe unexpected patterns in the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination and explain how these patterns might arise as consequences of study design, the dynamics of immune memory, or both. Resolving this uncertainty could lead to improvements in vaccination strategy, including the use of universal vaccines in experienced populations, and the evaluation of vaccine efficacy against influenza and other antigenically variable pathogens.

Stochastic processes constrain the within and between host evolution of influenza virus

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus ultimately derive from processes that take place within and between infected individuals. Here we define influenza virus dynamics in human hosts through sequencing of 249 specimens from 200 individuals collected over 6290 person-seasons of observation. Because these viruses were collected from individuals in a prospective community-based cohort, they are broadly representative of natural infections with seasonal viruses. Consistent with a neutral model of evolution, sequence data from 49 serially sampled individuals illustrated the dynamic turnover of synonymous and nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants and provided little evidence for positive selection of antigenic variants. We also identified 43 genetically-validated transmission pairs in this cohort. Maximum likelihood optimization of multiple transmission models estimated an effective transmission bottleneck of 1-2 genomes. Our data suggest that positive selection is inefficient at the level of the individual host and that stochastic processes dominate the host-level evolution of influenza viruses.

Epidemiological Studies to Support the Development of Next Generation Influenza Vaccines

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recently published a strategic plan for the development of a universal influenza vaccine. This plan focuses on improving understanding of influenza infection, the development of influenza immunity, and rational design of new vaccines. Epidemiological studies such as prospective, longitudinal cohort studies are essential to the completion of these objectives. In this review, we discuss the contributions of epidemiological studies to our current knowledge of vaccines and correlates of immunity, and how they can contribute to the development and evaluation of the next generation of influenza vaccines. These studies have been critical in monitoring the effectiveness of current influenza vaccines, identifying issues such as low vaccine effectiveness, reduced effectiveness among those who receive repeated vaccination, and issues related to egg adaptation during the manufacturing process. Epidemiological studies have also identified population-level correlates of protection that can inform the design and development of next generation influenza vaccines. Going forward, there is an enduring need for epidemiological studies to continue advancing knowledge of correlates of protection and the development of immunity, to evaluate and monitor the effectiveness of next generation influenza vaccines, and to inform recommendations for their use.

Maximum likelihood estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness against transmission from the household and from the community

Influenza vaccination is recommended as the best way to protect against influenza infection and illness. Due to seasonal changes in influenza virus types and subtypes, a new vaccine must be produced, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) must be estimated, annually. Since 2010, influenza vaccination has been recommended universally in the United States, making randomized clinical trials unethical. Recent studies have used a monitored household cohort study design to determine separate VE estimates against influenza transmission from the household and community. We developed a probability model and accompanying maximum likelihood procedure to estimate vaccine-related protection against transmission of influenza from the household and the community. Using agent-based stochastic simulations, we validated that we can obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transmission parameters and VE close to their true values. Sensitivity analyses to examine the effect of deviations from our assumptions were conducted. We used our method to estimate transmission parameters and VE from data from a monitored household study in Michigan during the 2012-2013 influenza season and were able to detect a significant protective effect of influenza vaccination against community-acquired transmission.

Perspectives from the Society for Pediatric Research: Decreased Effectiveness of the Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine

The intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), FluMist, has been widely appreciated by pediatricians, parents, and children alike for its ease of administration. However, concerns regarding lack of effectiveness in recent influenza seasons led to the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendation to administer inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs), and not LAIV, during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons. Given that data from previous years demonstrated equivalent and even improved efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV, these recent data were surprising, raising many questions about the potential mechanisms underlying this change. This review seeks to summarize the history of LAIV studies and ACIP recommendations with a focus on the recent decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and discordant results among studies performed in different countries. Decreased VE for A/H1N1pdm09 viruses represents the most consistent finding across studies, as VE has been low every season these viruses predominated since 2010-11. Potential explanations underlying diminished effectiveness include the hypothesis that prior vaccination, reduced thermostability of A/H1N1pdm09, addition of a fourth virus, or reduced replication fitness of A/H1N1pdm09 strains may have contributed to this phenomenon. Ongoing studies and potential alterations to LAIV formulations provide hope for a return of effective LAIV in future influenza seasons.

Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort

Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses.

Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among young children during the 2010-11 to 2013-14 influenza seasons in Ontario, Canada

Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of effectiveness of influenza vaccines for preventing serious outcomes, especially among young children. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among children aged 6-59 months. We used the test-negative design in hospitalized children in Ontario, Canada during the 2010-11 to 2013-14 influenza seasons. We used logistic regression models adjusted for age, season, and time within season to calculate VE estimates by vaccination status (full vs. partial), age group, and influenza season. We also assessed VE incorporating prior history of influenza vaccination. We included specimens from 9,982 patient hospitalization episodes over four seasons, with 12.8% testing positive for influenza. We observed variation in VE by vaccination status, age group, and influenza season. For the four seasons combined, VE was 60% (95%CI, 44%-72%) for full vaccination and 39% (95%CI, 17%-56%) for partial vaccination. VE for full vaccination was 67% (95%CI, 48%-79%) for children aged 24-59 months, 48% (95%CI, 12%-69%) for children aged 6-23 months, 77% (95%CI, 47%-90%) for 2010-11, 59% (95%CI, 13%-81%) for 2011-12, 33% (95%CI, -18% to 62%) for 2012-13, and 72% (95%CI, 42%-86%) for 2013-14. VE in children aged 24-59 months appeared similar between those vaccinated in both the current and previous seasons and those vaccinated in the current season only, with the exception of 2012-13, when VE was lower for those vaccinated in the current season only. Influenza vaccination is effective in preventing pediatric laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations during most seasons.

The Household Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Study: Lack of Antibody Response and Protection Following Receipt of 2014-2015 Influenza Vaccine

BACKGROUND

Antigenically drifted A(H3N2) viruses circulated extensively during the 2014-2015 influenza season. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was low and not significant among outpatients but in a hospitalized population was 43%. At least one study paradoxically observed increased A(H3N2) infection among those vaccinated 3 consecutive years.

METHODS

We followed a cohort of 1341 individuals from 340 households. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated. Hemagglutination-inhibition and neuraminidase-inhibition antibody titers were determined in subjects ≥13 years.

RESULTS

Influenza A(H3N2) was identified in 166 (12%) individuals and B(Yamagata) in 34 (2%). VE against A(H3N2) was -3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -55%, 32%) and similarly ineffective between age groups; increased risk of infection was not observed among those vaccinated in 2 or 3 previous years. VE against influenza B(Yamagata) was 57% (95% CI: -3%, 82%) but only significantly protective in children <9 years (87% [95% CI: 43%, 97%]). Less than 20% of older children and adults had ≥4-fold antibody titer rise against influenza A(H3N2) and B antigens following vaccination; responses were surprisingly similar for antigens included in the vaccine and those similar to circulating viruses. Antibody against A/Hong Kong/4801/14, similar to circulating 2014-2015 A(H3N2) viruses and included in the 2016-2017 vaccine, did not significantly predict protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Absence of VE against A(H3N2) was consistent with circulation of antigenically drifted viruses; however, generally limited antibody response following vaccination is concerning even in the context of antigenic mismatch. Although 2014-2015 vaccines were not effective in preventing A(H3N2) infection, no increased susceptibility was detected among the repeatedly vaccinated.

Web-Based Surveillance of Illness in Childcare Centers

School absenteeism is an inefficient and unspecific metric for measuring community illness and does not provide surveillance during summertime. Web-based biosurveillance of childcare centers may represent a novel way to efficiently monitor illness outbreaks year-round. A web-based biosurveillance program ( sickchildcare.org ) was created and implemented in 4 childcare centers in a single Michigan county. Childcare providers were trained to report sick children who required exclusion or had parent-reported absences due to illness. Deidentified data on age range, number of illnesses, and illness categories were collected. Weekly electronic reports were sent to the county public health department. Data for reports were gathered beginning in December 2013 and were summarized using descriptive statistics. A total of 385 individual episodes of illness occurred during the study period. Children with reported illness were infants (16%, n = 61), toddlers (38%, n = 148), and preschoolers (46%, n = 176). Illness categories included: fever (30%, n = 116), gastroenteritis (30%, n = 115), influenzalike illness (8%, n = 32), cold without fever (13%, n = 51), rash (7%, n = 26), conjunctivitis (1%, n = 3), ear infection (1%, n = 5), and other (10%, n = 37). The majority of reports were center exclusions (55%, n = 214); others were absences (45%, n = 171). The detection of a gastroenteritis outbreak by web-based surveillance during winter 2013-14 preceded county health reports by 3 weeks; an additional outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease was detected during June 2014 when standard school-based surveillance was not available. Web-based biosurveillance of illness in childcare centers represents a novel and feasible method to detect disease trends earlier and year-round compared to standard school-based disease surveillance.

The impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Conflicting results regarding the impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may cause confusion regarding the benefits of receiving the current season's vaccine.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature from database inception to August 17, 2016, for observational studies published in English that reported VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza for four vaccination groups, namely current season only, prior season only, both seasons, and neither season. We pooled differences in VE (∆VE) between vaccination groups by influenza season and type/subtype using a random effects model. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42016037241).

RESULTS

We identified 3435 unique articles, reviewed the full text of 634, and included 20 for meta-analysis. Compared to prior season vaccination only, vaccination in both seasons was associated with greater protection against influenza H1N1 (∆VE = 26%; 95% CI, 15% to 36%) and B (∆VE = 24%; 95% CI, 7% to 42%), but not H3N2 (∆VE = 10%; 95% CI, -6% to 25%). Compared to no vaccination for either season, individuals who received the current season's vaccine had greater protection against H1N1 (∆VE = 61%; 95% CI, 50% to 70%), H3N2 (∆VE = 41%; 95% CI, 33% to 48%), and B (∆VE = 62%; 95% CI, 54% to 68%). We observed no differences in VE between vaccination in both seasons and the current season only for H1N1 (∆VE = 4%; 95% CI, -7% to 15%), H3N2 (∆VE = -12%; 95% CI, -27% to 4%), or B (∆VE = -8%; 95% CI, -17% to 1%).

CONCLUSIONS

From the patient perspective, our results support current season vaccination regardless of prior season vaccination. We found no overall evidence that prior season vaccination negatively impacts current season VE. It is important that future VE studies include vaccination history over multiple seasons in order to evaluate repeated vaccination in more detail.

Urgent challenges in implementing live attenuated influenza vaccine

Conflicting reports have emerged about the effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine. The live attenuated influenza vaccine appears to protect particularly poorly against currently circulating H1N1 viruses that are derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 viruses. During the 2015-16 influenza season, when pandemic H1N1 was the predominant virus, studies from the USA reported a complete lack of effectiveness of the live vaccine in children. This finding led to a crucial decision in the USA to recommend that the live vaccine not be used in 2016-17 and to switch to the inactivated influenza vaccine. Other countries, including the UK, Canada, and Finland, however, have continued to recommend the use of the live vaccine. This policy divergence and uncertainty has far reaching implications for the entire global community, given the importance of the production capabilities of the live attenuated influenza vaccine for pandemic preparedness. In this Personal View, we discuss possible explanations for the observed reduced effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine and highlight the underpinning scientific questions. Further research to understand the reasons for these observations is essential to enable informed public health policy and commercial decisions about vaccine production and development in coming years.

Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Children From 2009 to 2015-2016: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review and meta-analysis describes and consolidates findings from all studies that assessed the effectiveness of live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) against laboratory-confirmed influenza since the 2009 pandemic in children and young adults.

METHODS

A MEDLINE search was conducted for articles published from January 1, 2010 to November 30, 2016. All original publications reporting an effectiveness estimate of LAIV against cases of influenza confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction or culture were retained for analysis. Effectiveness estimates were categorized by LAIV formulation (monovalent, trivalent, and quadrivalent) and strain (any influenza strain, A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B strains). Consolidated estimates were obtained with a random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 24 publications presenting 29 observational studies were retained for meta-analysis. Live-attenuated influenza vaccine was not shown to be effective against A(H1N1)pdm09 strains as a monovalent formulation in 2009-2010 or as a trivalent formulation from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, but consolidated sample sizes were small. It was effective as a quadrivalent formulation but less effective than inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Live-attenuated influenza vaccine was consistently effective against B strains and matched A(H3N2) strains but was not shown to provide significant protection against mismatched A(H3N2) strains in 2014-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings confirm that effectiveness of LAIV against A(H1N1)pdm09 strains has been lower than IIV. A systematic investigation has been initiated to determine the root cause of the difference in effectiveness between pre- and postpandemic A(H1N1) vaccine strains and to identify a more consistently effective A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain.

Repeated annual influenza vaccination and vaccine effectiveness: review of evidence

INTRODUCTION

Studies in the 1970s and 1980s signaled concern that repeated influenza vaccination could affect vaccine protection. The antigenic distance hypothesis provided a theoretical framework to explain variability in repeat vaccination effects based on antigenic similarity between successive vaccine components and the epidemic strain. Areas covered: A meta-analysis of vaccine effectiveness studies from 2010-11 through 2014-15 shows substantial heterogeneity in repeat vaccination effects within and between seasons and subtypes. When negative effects were observed, they were most pronounced for H3N2, especially in 2014-15 when vaccine components were unchanged and antigenically distinct from the epidemic strain. Studies of repeated vaccination across multiple seasons suggest that vaccine effectiveness may be influenced by more than one prior season. In immunogenicity studies, repeated vaccination blunts the hemagglutinin antibody response, particularly for H3N2. Expert commentary: Substantial heterogeneity in repeated vaccination effects is not surprising given the variation in study populations and seasons, and the variable effects of antigenic distance and immunological landscape in different age groups and populations. Caution is required in the interpretation of pooled results across multiple seasons, since this can mask important variation in repeat vaccination effects between seasons. Multi-season clinical studies are needed to understand repeat vaccination effects and guide recommendations.

Summary of the NACI Statement on Seasonal Influenza Vaccine for 2017-2018

Background

Influenza is a respiratory infection caused primarily by influenza A and B viruses. Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza and its complications. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) provides recommendations regarding seasonal influenza vaccines annually to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

Objective

To summarize the NACI recommendations regarding the use of seasonal influenza vaccines for the 2017-2018 influenza season.

Methods

Annual influenza vaccine recommendations are developed by NACI's Influenza Working Group for consideration and approval by NACI, based on NACI's evidence-based process for developing recommendations. The recommendations include a consideration of the burden of influenza illness and the target populations for vaccination; efficacy and effectiveness, immunogenicity and safety of influenza vaccines; vaccine schedules; and other aspects of influenza immunization. These recommendations are published annually on the Agency's website in the NACI Advisory Committee Statement: Canadian Immunization Guide Chapter on Influenza and Statement on Seasonal Influenza Vaccine (the Statement).

Results

The annual statement has been updated for the 2017-2018 influenza season to incorporate recommendations for the use of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) that were contained in two addenda published after the 2016-2017 statement. These recommendations were 1) that egg-allergic individuals may be vaccinated against influenza using the low ovalbumin-containing LAIV licensed for use in Canada and 2) to continue to recommend the use of LAIV in children and adolescents 2-17 years of age, but to remove the preferential recommendation for its use.

Conclusion

NACI continues to recommend annual influenza vaccination for all individuals aged six months and older, with particular focus on people at high risk of influenza-related complications or hospitalization, people capable of transmitting influenza to those at high risk, and others as indicated.

Negative impact of prior influenza vaccination on current influenza vaccination among people infected and not infected in prior season: A test-negative case-control study in Japan

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidences indicate that repeated influenza vaccination has negative impact on the vaccine effectiveness (VE). However no published studies considered past influenza infection when assessing the VE of repeated vaccination.

METHODS

Prospective surveillance was conducted from 2009 to 2012 at a community hospital on a small island in Japan. The study included all outpatients with an influenza-like illness (ILI) who attended the hospital, and a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was used to diagnose influenza A/B infection. The VE of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) against medically attended influenza A (MA-fluA) was estimated using a test-negative case-control study design. The influence of TIV in the prior season on VE in the current season was investigated in the context of MA-fluA during the prior season.

RESULTS

During the three influenza seasons, 5838 ILI episodes (4127 subjects) were analysed. Subjects who had an episode of MA-fluA in the prior season were at a significantly lower risk of MA-fluA in the current season (adjusted odds ratio: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.30-0.50). The overall adjusted VE was 28% (95% CI, 14-40). VE was substantially lower in subjects vaccinated in the prior season compared to those who had not been vaccinated in prior season (19%; 95% CI: 0-35 vs 46%; 95% CI: 26-60, test for interaction, P value <0.05). In subjects who did not have MA-fluA in the prior season showed the attenuation of VE due to repeated vaccination (13%; 95% CI: -7 to 30 vs 44%; 95% CI: 24-59, test for interaction, P<0.05). However this effect was not detected in subjects who had contracted MA-fluA in the prior season.

CONCLUSIONS

Negative effects of repeated vaccination were significant among those without history of MA-fluA in the prior season.

Antibodies Against the Current Influenza A(H1N1) Vaccine Strain Do Not Protect Some Individuals From Infection With Contemporary Circulating Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Strains

During the 2013-2014 influenza season, nearly all circulating 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) strains possessed an antigenically important mutation in hemagglutinin (K166Q). Here, we performed hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) assays, using sera collected from 382 individuals prior to the 2013-2014 season, and we determined whether HAI titers were associated with protection from A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Protection was associated with HAI titers against an A(H1N1)pdm09 strain possessing the K166Q mutation but not with HAI titers against the current A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain, which lacks this mutation. These data indicate that contemporary A(H1N1)pdm09 strains are antigenically distinct from the current A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain.

Association of vaccine handling conditions with effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine against H1N1pdm09 viruses in the United States

PURPOSE

This analysis examined potential causes of the lack of vaccine effectiveness (VE) of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) against A/H1N1pdm09 viruses in the United States (US) during the 2013-2014 season. Laboratory studies have demonstrated reduced thermal stability of A/California/07/2009, the A/H1N1pdm09 strain utilized in LAIV from 2009 through 2013-2014.

METHODS

Post hoc analyses of a 2013-2014 test-negative case-control (TNCC) effectiveness study investigated associations between vaccine shipping conditions and LAIV lot effectiveness. Investigational sites provided the LAIV lot numbers administered to each LAIV recipient enrolled in the study, and the vaccine distributor used by the site for commercially purchased vaccine. Additionally, a review was conducted of 2009-2014 pediatric observational TNCC effectiveness studies of LAIV, summarizing effectiveness by type/subtype, season, and geographic location.

RESULTS

From the 2013 to 2014 TNCC study, the proportion of LAIV recipients who tested positive for H1N1pdm09 was significantly higher among children who received a lot released between August 1 and September 15, 2013, compared with a lot shipped either earlier or later (21% versus 4%; P<0.01). A linear relationship was observed between the proportion of subjects testing positive for H1N1pdm09 and outdoor temperatures during truck unloading at distributors' central locations. The review of LAIV VE studies showed that in the 2010-2011 and 2013-2014 influenza seasons, no significant effectiveness of LAIV against H1N1pdm09 was demonstrated for the trivalent or quadrivalent formulations of LAIV in the US, respectively, in contrast to significant effectiveness against A/H3N2 and B strains during 2010-2014.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that the lack of VE observed with LAIV in the US against H1N1pdm09 viruses was associated with exposure of some LAIV lots to temperatures above recommended storage conditions during US distribution, and is likely explained by the increased susceptibility of the A/California/7/2009 (H1N1pdm09) LAIV strain to thermal degradation.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

NCT01997450.

Effect of Statin Use on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

Background. Recent studies suggest that statin use may reduce influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), but laboratory-confirmed influenza was not assessed.

Methods. Patients ≥45 years old presenting with acute respiratory illness were prospectively enrolled during the 2004–2005 through 2014–2015 influenza seasons. Vaccination and statin use were extracted from electronic records. Respiratory samples were tested for influenza virus.

Results. The analysis included 3285 adults: 1217 statin nonusers (37%), 903 unvaccinated statin nonusers (27%), 847 vaccinated statin users (26%), and 318 unvaccinated statin users (10%). Statin use modified VE and the risk of influenza A(H3N2) virus infection (P = .002) but not 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) or influenza B virus infection (P = .2 and .4, respectively). VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 45% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27%–59%) among statin nonusers and −21% (95% CI, −84% to 20%) among statin users. Vaccinated statin users had significant protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (VE, 68%; 95% CI, 19%–87%) and influenza B (VE, 48%; 95% CI, 1%–73%). Statin use did not significantly modify VE when stratified by prior season vaccination. In validation analyses, the use of other cardiovascular medications did not modify influenza VE.

Conclusions. Statin use was associated with reduced VE against influenza A(H3N2) but not influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 or influenza B. Further research is needed to assess biologic plausibility and confirm these results.