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Zimmerman A, Fawole A, Shahid M, Dow D, Ogbuoji O. Evidence Gaps in Economic Evaluations of HIV Interventions Targeting Young People: A Systematic Review. J Adolesc Health 2024:S1054-139X(24)00296-9. [PMID: 39140926 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2024.06.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2023] [Revised: 05/14/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE Young people living with HIV (YPLWH) face the burden of navigating the unique physical, psychological, and social challenges of adolescence while coping with a stigmatized infectious disease that requires lifelong care. Consequently, YPLWH experience worse HIV outcomes compared to children and adults. This systematic review seeks to collate evidence on the health and economic impact of HIV interventions targeting YPLWH and to identify gaps in the available evidence that may inform future economic evaluations of interventions for YPLWH. METHODS We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Global Index Medicus databases for peer-reviewed articles published through April 24, 2022 (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022356244). Our inclusion criteria encompassed economic evaluations of HIV interventions that report health and economic outcomes among individuals ages 10-24 years. Three investigators screened articles at the title, abstract, and full-text levels. The data were extracted in accordance with the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022. RESULTS Of the 3,735 unique articles retrieved through our search, 32 met our inclusion criteria. Of these 32 articles, 8 (25%) evaluated a behavioral, educational, or financial intervention, 6 (19%) voluntary medical male circumcision, 5 (16%) HIV screening or testing, 4 (13%) pre-exposure prophylaxis, 3 (9%) a hypothetical HIV vaccine, 2 (6%) antiretroviral therapy, 1 (3%) condom distribution, and 3 (9%) a combination of interventions. Twenty-two studies (69%) focused on Africa, 9 (28%) on North America, and 1 (3%) on Europe. Thirty studies (94%) were cost-effectiveness analyses and 2 (6%) were cost-utility analyses. Of the intervention types captured by this review, most were deemed cost-saving or cost-effective. Only two studies-one evaluating a financial intervention and one evaluating HIV testing-concluded that the intervention was not cost-effective. DISCUSSION Evidence presented by this review suggests that investments in HIV prevention and treatment for young people can be a cost-effective, and sometimes cost-saving, solution to combating the global HIV epidemic. However, additional evaluations of HIV interventions targeting young people, which adhere to standardized reporting practices, are needed to permit comparability of cost-effectiveness outcomes between interventions and settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armand Zimmerman
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Ayodamope Fawole
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Minahil Shahid
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Dorothy Dow
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania
| | - Osondu Ogbuoji
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
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Ross JM, Greene C, Broshkevitch CJ, Dowdy DW, van Heerden A, Heitner J, Rao DW, Roberts DA, Shapiro AE, Zabinsky ZB, Barnabas RV. Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modelling analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2024; 27:e26272. [PMID: 38861426 PMCID: PMC11166187 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase the uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men. METHODS We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programmes during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e. ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for 10 years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated programme costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective. RESULTS If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3%-34.1%) and TB mortality by 34.6% (range 24.8%-42.2%) after 10 years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9%-36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9%-43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates, with a projected 54 more deaths annually among men than women (range 11-103) after 10 years of community-based care versus 109 (range 41-182) in standard care. Over 10 years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709-$1012). CONCLUSIONS By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer M. Ross
- Division of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesDepartment of MedicineUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Chelsea Greene
- Department of Industrial and Systems EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Cara J. Broshkevitch
- Department of EpidemiologyUniversity of North CarolinaChapel HillNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - David W. Dowdy
- Department of EpidemiologyJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Alastair van Heerden
- Centre for Community Based ResearchHuman Sciences Research CouncilPietermaritzburgSouth Africa
- SAMRC/Wits Developmental Pathways for Health Research UnitUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Jesse Heitner
- Division of Infectious DiseasesMassachusetts General HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Darcy W. Rao
- Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - D. Allen Roberts
- Department of EpidemiologyUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Adrienne E. Shapiro
- Division of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesDepartment of MedicineUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
- Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Zelda B. Zabinsky
- Department of Industrial and Systems EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Ruanne V. Barnabas
- Division of Infectious DiseasesMassachusetts General HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
- Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
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Cox SN, Wu L, Wittenauer R, Clark S, Roberts DA, Nwogu IB, Vitruk O, Kuo AP, Johnson C, Jamil MS, Sands A, Schaefer R, Kisia C, Baggaley R, Stekler JD, Akullian A, Sharma M. Impact of HIV self-testing for oral pre-exposure prophylaxis scale-up on drug resistance and HIV outcomes in western Kenya: a modelling study. Lancet HIV 2024; 11:e167-e175. [PMID: 38301668 PMCID: PMC10896737 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(23)00268-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 10/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Community-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision has the potential to expand PrEP coverage. HIV self-testing can facilitate PrEP community-based delivery but might have lower sensitivity than facility-based HIV testing, potentially leading to inappropriate PrEP use among people with HIV and subsequent development of drug resistance. We aimed to evaluate the impact of HIV self-testing use for PrEP scale-up. METHODS We parameterised an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to simulate generic tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine PrEP scale-up in western Kenya using four testing scenarios: provider-administered nucleic acid testing, provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests detecting antibodies, blood-based HIV self-testing, or oral fluid HIV self-testing. Scenarios were compared with a no PrEP counterfactual. Individuals aged 18-49 years with one or more heterosexual partners who screened HIV-negative were eligible for PrEP. We assessed the cost and health impact of rapid PrEP scale-up with high coverage over 20 years, and the budget impact over 5 years, using various HIV testing modalities. FINDINGS PrEP coverage of 29% was projected to avert approximately 54% of HIV infections and 17% of HIV-related deaths among adults aged 18-49 years over 20 years; health impacts were similar across HIV testing modalities used to deliver PrEP. The percentage of HIV infections with PrEP-associated nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) drug resistance was 0·6% (95% uncertainty intervals 0·4-0·9) in the blood HIV self-testing scenario and 0·8% (0·6-1·0) in the oral HIV self-testing scenario, compared with 0·3% (0·2-0·3) in the antibody rapid diagnostic testing scenario and 0·2% (0·1-0·2) in the nucleic acid testing scenario. Accounting for background NRTI resistance, we found similarly low proportions of drug resistance across scenarios. The budget impact of implementing PrEP using HIV self-testing and provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests were similar, while nucleic acid testing was approximately 50% more costly. INTERPRETATION Scaling up PrEP using HIV self-testing has similar health impacts, costs, and low risk of drug resistance as provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests. Policy makers should consider leveraging HIV self-testing to expand PrEP access among those at HIV risk. FUNDING The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah N Cox
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Linxuan Wu
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Rachel Wittenauer
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Samantha Clark
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - D Allen Roberts
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ifechukwu Benedict Nwogu
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Olga Vitruk
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Alexandra P Kuo
- Department of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Cheryl Johnson
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Muhammad S Jamil
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Anita Sands
- Regulation and Prequalification Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Robin Schaefer
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Christine Kisia
- World Health Organization - Kenya Country Office, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Rachel Baggaley
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Joanne D Stekler
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Adam Akullian
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Monisha Sharma
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Forsythe S, Kioko U, Mahiane G, Glaubius R, Musau A, Gichangi A, Reed J, Were D. Estimating the costs and perceived benefits of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) delivery in ten counties of Kenya: a costing and a contingent valuation study. FRONTIERS IN REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH 2024; 6:1278764. [PMID: 38463424 PMCID: PMC10920246 DOI: 10.3389/frph.2024.1278764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Kenya included oral PrEP in the national guidelines as part of combination HIV prevention, and subsequently began providing PrEP to individuals who are at elevated risk of HIV infection in 2017. However, as scale-up continued, there was a recognized gap in knowledge on the cost of delivering oral PrEP. This gap limited the ability of the Government of Kenya to budget for its PrEP scale-up and to evaluate PrEP relative to other HIV prevention strategies. The following study calculated the actual costs of oral PrEP scale-up as it was being delivered in ten counties in Kenya. This costing also allowed for a comparison of various models of service delivery in different geographic regions from the perspective of service providers in Kenya. In addition, the analysis was also conducted to understand factors that indicate why some individuals place a greater value on PrEP than others, using a contingent valuation technique. Methods Data collection was completed between November 2017 and September 2018. Costing data was collected from 44 Kenyan health facilities, consisting of 23 public facilities, 5 private facilities and 16 drop-in centers (DICEs) through a cross-sectional survey in ten counties. Financial and programmatic data were collected from financial and asset records and through interviewer administered questionnaires. The costs associated with PrEP provision were calculated using an ingredients-based costing approach which involved identification and costing of all the economic inputs (both direct and indirect) used in PrEP service delivery. In addition, a contingent valuation study was conducted at the same 44 facilities to understand factors that reveal why some individuals place a greater value on PrEP than others. Interviews were conducted with 2,258 individuals (1,940 current PrEP clients and 318 non-PrEP clients). A contingent valuation method using a "payment card approach" was used to determine the maximum willingness to pay (WTP) of respondents regarding obtaining access to oral PrEP services. Results The weighted cost of providing PrEP was $253 per person year, ranging from $217 at health centers to $283 at dispensaries. Drop-in centers (DICEs), which served about two-thirds of the client volume at surveyed facilities, had a unit cost of $276. The unit cost was highest for facilities targeting MSM ($355), while it was lowest for those targeting FSW ($248). The unit cost for facilities targeting AGYW was $323 per person year. The largest percentage of costs were attributable to personnel (58.5%), followed by the cost of drugs, which represented 25% of all costs. The median WTP for PrEP was $2 per month (mean was $4.07 per month). This covers only one-third of the monthly cost of the medication (approximately $6 per month) and less than 10% of the full cost of delivering PrEP ($21 per month). A sizable proportion of current clients (27%) were unwilling to pay anything for PrEP. Certain populations put a higher value on PrEP services, including: FSW and MSM, Muslims, individuals with higher education, persons between the ages of 20 and 35, and households with a higher income and expenditures. Discussion This is the most recent and comprehensive study on the cost of PrEP delivery in Kenya. These results will be used in determining resource requirements and for resource mobilization to facilitate sustainable PrEP scale-up in Kenya and beyond. This contingent valuation study does have important implications for Kenya's PrEP program. First, it indicates that some populations are more motivated to adopt oral PrEP, as indicated by their higher WTP for the service. MSM and FSW, for example, placed a higher value on PrEP than AGYW. Higher educated individuals, in turn, put a much higher value on PrEP than those with less education (which may also reflect the higher "ability to pay" among those with more education). This suggests that any attempt to increase demand or improve PrEP continuation should consider these differences in client populations. Cost recovery from existing PrEP clients would have potentially negative consequences for uptake and continuation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Forsythe
- Center for Economics and Costing, Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, United States
| | - Urbanus Kioko
- Department of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Guy Mahiane
- Center for Modeling, Planning and Policy Analysis, Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, United States
| | - Robert Glaubius
- Center for Modeling, Planning and Policy Analysis, Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, United States
| | | | | | - Jason Reed
- HIV and Infectious Disease Unit, Jhpiego, Baltimore, MD, United States
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Shahmanesh M, Chimbindi N, Cowan FM. Person-centered HIV PrEP for cisgender women. Nat Med 2023; 29:2707-2708. [PMID: 37957376 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02618-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Shahmanesh
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
- Institute for Global Health, University College London (UCL), London, UK.
- University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), Durban, South Africa.
| | - Natsayi Chimbindi
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Institute for Global Health, University College London (UCL), London, UK
- University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), Durban, South Africa
| | - Frances M Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV AIDS Research (CeSHHAR), Harare, Zimbabwe
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM), Liverpool, UK
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Moore M, Stansfield S, Donnell DJ, Boily MC, Mitchell KM, Anderson PL, Delany-Moretlwe S, Bekker LG, Mgodi NM, Celum CL, Dimitrov D. Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence. Nat Med 2023; 29:2748-2752. [PMID: 37798438 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02564-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations. Two, four and seven pills per week reduced HIV incidence by 59.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 29.9-95.8%), 83.8% (95% CI 51.7-99.8%) and 95.9% (95% CI 72.6-100%), respectively. Our adherence-efficacy curve can be validated and updated by HIV prevention studies that directly measure TFV-DP concentrations. The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mia Moore
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Sarah Stansfield
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Deborah J Donnell
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marie-Claude Boily
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kate M Mitchell
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Peter L Anderson
- Anschutz Medical Campus, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
| | | | - Linda-Gail Bekker
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nyaradzo M Mgodi
- College of Health Sciences Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Connie L Celum
- Departments of Global Health, Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dobromir Dimitrov
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- HPTN Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Ross JM, Greene C, Bayer CJ, Dowdy DW, van Heerden A, Heitner J, Rao DW, Roberts DA, Shapiro AE, Zabinsky ZB, Barnabas RV. Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modeling analysis. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.08.21.23294380. [PMID: 37662260 PMCID: PMC10473784 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.21.23294380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/05/2023]
Abstract
Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men. Methods We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programs during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e., ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for ten years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated program costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective. Results If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3% - 34.1%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%) after ten years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9% - 36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates by reducing TB mortality among men by a projected 39.8% (range 32.2% - 46.3%) and by 30.9% (range 25.3% - 36.5%) among women. Over ten years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709 - $1,012). Conclusions By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer M. Ross
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Chelsea Greene
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Cara J. Bayer
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA
| | - David W. Dowdy
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - Alastair van Heerden
- Centre for Community Based Research, Human Sciences Research Council, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
- SAMRC/Wits Developmental Pathways for Health Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jesse Heitner
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, USA
| | | | - D. Allen Roberts
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Adrienne E. Shapiro
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Zelda B. Zabinsky
- Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Ruanne V. Barnabas
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
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Hendrickson C, Hirasen K, Mongwenyana C, Benade M, Bothma R, Smith C, Meyer J, Nichols B, Long L. Costs and outcomes of routine HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation across different service delivery models and key populations in South Africa. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.08.14.23294055. [PMID: 37645864 PMCID: PMC10462215 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.14.23294055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
Background Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly efficacious biomedical HIV prevention tool, yet despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2015, uptake and persistence remain limited in much of the world, including sub Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a dearth of evidence-based interventions to improve PrEP uptake and persistence in SSA, and the full costs of PrEP programs implemented in routine care settings remain largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the cost of delivery of daily oral PrEP, and associated outcomes, to different key and priority populations across different service delivery models (SDMs) in South Africa. Methods We conducted bottom-up micro-costing of PrEP service delivery from the provider perspective within twelve urban SDMs providing routine PrEP services to various key and propriety populations in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces in South Africa. The SDMs included in-facility and outreach models that focused on men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). We identified all within- and above-facility activities supporting PrEP delivery, obtained input costs from program budgets, expenditure records and staff interviews, and determined individual resource usage between February 2019 and February 2020 through retrospective medical record review. Our primary outcome was PrEP coverage at six months (defined as having sufficient PrEP drug dispensed at the last visit to be covered at six months post PrEP-initiation). A subset (N=633) of all enrolled subjects had the potential for 12 months of follow-up and were included in a 12-month outcome analysis. We report the cost per client initiated on PrEP in 2021 United States Dollars (USD). Findings We collected medical record data from 1,281 people who initiated PrEP at 12 SDMs between February and August 2019 and had at least six months of potential follow-up. The average number of visits was 2.3 for in-facility models and 1.5 for outreach models and 3,086 months of PrEP was dispensed. PrEP coverage at six months varied greatly across SDMs, from 41.8% at one MSM-focused fixed clinic to 0% in an MSM-focused outreach model. In general, in-facility programs had higher six-month coverage than outreach programs. Across all SDMs with PrEP clients with potential for 12 months of follow-up (n=633), PrEP coverage at 12 months was 13.6%, with variability between SDMs. The average six-month cost per client initiated on PrEP ranged from $29 to $590, with higher average costs generally observed for the in-facility programs ($152 in-facility versus $84 for outreach). The average monthly cost per PrEP client who had six-month PrEP coverage ranged from $18 to $160 dependent on SDM. Interpretation This study is an important addition to the PrEP outcome and cost literature in the SSA region. Results show that costs and outcomes vary considerably across different SDMs and populations in real world PrEP programs and provide crucial information for further scale-up of the oral PrEP program in South Africa and the greater SSA region.
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Painter C, Faradiba D, Chavarina KK, Sari EN, Teerawattananon Y, Aluzaite K, Ananthakrishnan A. A systematic literature review of economic evaluation studies of interventions impacting antimicrobial resistance. Antimicrob Resist Infect Control 2023; 12:69. [PMID: 37443104 PMCID: PMC10339577 DOI: 10.1186/s13756-023-01265-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is accelerated by widespread and inappropriate use of antimicrobials. Many countries, including those in low- and middle- income contexts, have started implementing interventions to tackle AMR. However, for many interventions there is little or no economic evidence with respect to their cost-effectiveness. To help better understand the scale of this evidence gap, we conducted a systematic literature review to provide a comprehensive summary on the value for money of different interventions affecting AMR. METHODS A systematic literature review was conducted of economic evaluations on interventions addressing AMR. a narrative synthesis of findings was produced. Systematic searches for relevant studies were performed across relevant databases and grey literature sources such as unpublished studies, reports, and other relevant documents. All identified economic evaluation studies were included provided that they reported an economic outcome and stated that the analysed intervention aimed to affect AMR or antimicrobial use in the abstract. Studies that reported clinical endpoints alone were excluded. Selection for final inclusion and data extraction was performed by two independent reviewers. A quality assessment of the evidence used in the included studies was also conducted. RESULTS 28,597 articles were screened and 35 articles were identified that satisfied the inclusion criteria. The review attempted to answer the following questions: (1) What interventions to address AMR have been the subject of an economic evaluation? (2) In what types of setting (e.g. high-income, low-income, regions etc.) have these economic evaluations been focused? (3) Which interventions have been estimated to be cost-effective, and has this result been replicated in other settings/contexts? (4) What economic evaluation methods or techniques have been used to evaluate these interventions? (5) What kind and quality of data has been used in conducting economic evaluations for these interventions? DISCUSSION The review is one of the first of its kind, and the most recent, to systematically review the literature on the cost-effectiveness of AMR interventions. This review addresses an important evidence gap in the economics of AMR and can assist AMR researchers' understanding of the state of the economic evaluation literature, and therefore inform future research. Systematic review registration PROSPERO (CRD42020190310).
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Painter
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dian Faradiba
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand.
| | - Kinanti Khansa Chavarina
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Ella Nanda Sari
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Yot Teerawattananon
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
- National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Aparna Ananthakrishnan
- Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
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10
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Castor D, Heck CJ, Quigee D, Telrandhe NV, Kui K, Wu J, Glickson E, Yohannes K, Rueda ST, Bozzani F, Meyers K, Zucker J, Deacon J, Kripke K, Sobieszczyk ME, Terris‐Prestholt F, Malati C, Obermeyer C, Dam A, Schwartz K, Forsythe S. Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review. J Int AIDS Soc 2023; 26 Suppl 2:e26110. [PMID: 37439063 PMCID: PMC10339010 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are preparing to introduce long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAP). Amid multiple pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) options and constrained funding, decision-makers could benefit from systematic implementation planning and aligned costs. We reviewed national costed implementation plans (CIPs) to describe relevant implementation inputs and activities (domains) for informing the costed rollout of LAP. We assessed how primary costing evidence aligned with those domains. METHODS We conducted a rapid review of CIPs for oral PrEP and family planning (FP) to develop a consensus of implementation domains, and a scoping review across nine electronic databases for publications on PrEP costing in LMICs between January 2010 and June 2022. We extracted cost data and assessed alignment with the implementation domains and the Global Health Costing Consortium principles. RESULTS We identified 15 implementation domains from four national PrEP plans and FP-CIP template; only six were in all sources. We included 66 full-text manuscripts, 10 reported LAP, 13 (20%) were primary cost studies-representing seven countries, and none of the 13 included LAP. The 13 primary cost studies included PrEP commodities (n = 12), human resources (n = 11), indirect costs (n = 11), other commodities (n = 10), demand creation (n = 9) and counselling (n = 9). Few studies costed integration into non-HIV services (n = 5), above site costs (n = 3), supply chains and logistics (n = 3) or policy and planning (n = 2), and none included the costs of target setting, health information system adaptations or implementation research. Cost units and outcomes were variable (e.g. average per person-year). DISCUSSION LAP planning will require updating HIV prevention policies, technical assistance for logistical and clinical support, expanding beyond HIV platforms, setting PrEP achievement targets overall and disaggregated by method, extensive supply chain and logistics planning and support, as well as updating health information systems to monitor multiple PrEP methods with different visit schedules. The 15 implementation domains were variable in reviewed studies. PrEP primary cost and budget data are necessary for new product introduction and should match implementation plans with financing. CONCLUSIONS As PrEP services expand to include LAP, decision-makers need a framework, tools and a process to support countries in planning the systematic rollout and costing for LAP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Delivette Castor
- Division of Infectious DiseasesColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Department of EpidemiologyColumbia University Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Craig J. Heck
- Division of Infectious DiseasesColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Department of EpidemiologyColumbia University Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Daniela Quigee
- Division of Infectious DiseasesColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | | | - Kiran Kui
- Department of EpidemiologyColumbia University Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Jiaxin Wu
- Department of EpidemiologyColumbia University Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | | | - Kibret Yohannes
- University of Virginia School of MedicineCharlottesvilleVirginiaUSA
| | | | | | - Kathrine Meyers
- Division of Infectious DiseasesColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- The Aaron Diamond AIDS Research CenterColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Jason Zucker
- Division of Infectious DiseasesColumbia University Irving Medical CenterNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | | | | | | | | | - Christine Malati
- United States Agency for International DevelopmentWashingtonDCUSA
| | - Chris Obermeyer
- The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and MalariaGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Anita Dam
- United States Agency for International DevelopmentWashingtonDCUSA
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Dietrich JJ, Ahmed N, Tshabalala G, Wu M, Mulaudzi M, Hornschuh S, Atujuna M, Muhumuza R, Ssemata AS, Stranix-Chibanda L, Nematadzira T, Bekker LG, Martinson N, Seeley J, Fox J. A qualitative study to explore daily versus on-demand oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in young people from South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287627. [PMID: 37384792 PMCID: PMC10310032 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remain vulnerable to HIV infection. While pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV transmission as a daily or on-demand regimen, tailored approaches are necessary. The Combined HIV Adolescent PrEP and Prevention Study (CHAPS) is a mixed-methods research program investigating the acceptability and feasibility of implementing daily and on-demand PrEP among young people in SSA. It also aims to determine an on-demand dosing schedule for insertive sex. For this paper, we explored preferences for daily versus on-demand PrEP amongst adolescents as part of CHAPS. METHODS Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from Soweto and Cape Town (South Africa), Wakiso district (Uganda) and Chitungwiza (Zimbabwe). At the time of the study in 2018/2019, Uganda had not rolled out PrEP to the general population; in Zimbabwe, PrEP for young people was only available at selected sites with one located within the study recruitment area. In South Africa, PrEP was made available to selected high-risk groups. We conducted 60 in-depth interviews and 24 group discussions amongst young people aged 13-24 without HIV in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. All in-depth interviews and group discussions were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and translated to English. Data were analysed using framework analysis. The main themes were centered around preferences for daily and on-demand PrEP. RESULTS Reasons for on-demand preferences included stigma, pill fatigue, adherence and side effects. Reasons for daily PrEP preferences included factors related to sexual risk behaviour, continuous protection against incidents of unintentional exposure, and the increased efficacy of a daily dose. Participants at all sites preferring daily PrEP identified the same reasons, with more males than females citing inadvertent blood contact or perceived increased efficacy. Similarly, participants at all sites preferring on-demand PrEP gave the same reasons for their preferences for on-demand PrEP; the exception was South Africans who did not mention the hope of having fewer side effects by not taking daily PrEP. Additionally, more males than females cited intermittent sex as a reason for opting for on-demand PrEP. CONCLUSIONS Our study is the first known to explore and describe youth preferences for daily versus on-demand PrEP. While the choice is clear-cut, the reasons cited in the different options provide invaluable insights into their decisions, and the actual and perceived facilitators and barriers to access to PrEP. Further education is needed amongst young people, not only about PrEP but also in other areas of comprehensive sexuality education. Exploring all options of HIV prevention is crucial to provide a tailored, one-size-does-not-fit-all approach to adolescent care in SSA to reduce and, the continued and increasing risk of this preventable infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janan Janine Dietrich
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Health Systems Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Bellville, South Africa
- African Social Sciences Unit of Research and Evaluation (ASSURE), Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nadia Ahmed
- Mortimer Market Centre, Central North West London NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Gugulethu Tshabalala
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Minju Wu
- Harvard College, Cambridge, MA, United States of America
| | - Mamakiri Mulaudzi
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefanie Hornschuh
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Millicent Atujuna
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Richard Muhumuza
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Andrew Sentoogo Ssemata
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lynda Stranix-Chibanda
- University of Zimbabwe Clinical Trials Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Teacler Nematadzira
- University of Zimbabwe Clinical Trials Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Linda-Gail Bekker
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Neil Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Janet Seeley
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Julie Fox
- King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
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12
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Stone J, Bothma R, Gomez GB, Eakle R, Mukandavire C, Subedar H, Fraser H, Boily M, Schwartz S, Coetzee J, Otwombe K, Milovanovic M, Baral S, Johnson LF, Venter WDF, Rees H, Vickerman P. Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2023; 26:e26063. [PMID: 36807874 PMCID: PMC9939943 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale-up pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of this programme, including future scale-up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self-reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down-adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0-70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2-87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss-to-follow-up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40-0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale-up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016-2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016-2020) and the future impact (2021-2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016-2040) of the current PrEP provision. RESULTS Calibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV-negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35-0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016-2020 or 605 (444-840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99-23.29). PrEP is cost-saving, with $1.42 (1.03-1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572-9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7-11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308-38,107) infections averted by 2040. CONCLUSIONS Our findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jack Stone
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Rutendo Bothma
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Gabriela B. Gomez
- Department of Global Health and DevelopmentLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Robyn Eakle
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- Department of Global Health and DevelopmentLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Office of HIV AIDSU.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)WashingtonDCUSA
| | - Christinah Mukandavire
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | | | - Hannah Fraser
- Population Health SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Marie‐Claude Boily
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - Sheree Schwartz
- Department of EpidemiologyJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Jenny Coetzee
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- South African Medical Research CouncilCape TownSouth Africa
- African Potential Management ConsultancyKyalamiSouth Africa
| | - Kennedy Otwombe
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Public HealthFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Minja Milovanovic
- Perinatal HIV Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- African Potential Management ConsultancyKyalamiSouth Africa
| | - Stefan Baral
- Department of EpidemiologyJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Leigh F. Johnson
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and ResearchUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
| | | | - Helen Rees
- Wits RHIUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
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13
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Roberts DA, Bridenbecker D, Haberer JE, Barnabas RV, Akullian A. The impact of prevention‐effective PrEP use on HIV incidence: a mathematical modelling study. J Int AIDS Soc 2022; 25:e26034. [DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- D. Allen Roberts
- Department of Epidemiology University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Daniel Bridenbecker
- Institute for Disease Modeling Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Seattle Washington USA
| | - Jessica E. Haberer
- Center for Global Health Massachusetts General Hospital Boston Massachusetts USA
- Department of Medicine Harvard Medical School Boston Massachusetts USA
| | - Ruanne V. Barnabas
- Center for Global Health Massachusetts General Hospital Boston Massachusetts USA
- Department of Medicine Harvard Medical School Boston Massachusetts USA
| | - Adam Akullian
- Institute for Disease Modeling Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Seattle Washington USA
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14
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Phillips AN, Sibanda E, Sikwese K, Bansi-Matharu L, Cambiano V, Rodger A, Lundgren J, Shahmanesh M, Gilks C, Godfrey C, Ehrenkranz P, Hargreaves JR, Revill P, Cowan F. Enabling timely HIV postexposure prophylaxis access in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 2022; 36:1473-1475. [PMID: 35876709 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000003258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Kenly Sikwese
- African Community Advisory Board (AfroCAB-HIV), Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | | | | | - Jens Lundgren
- Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | - Catherine Godfrey
- Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator, Department of State, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | - Paul Revill
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, UK
| | - Frances Cowan
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK, and Harare, Zimbabwe
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15
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Phillips AN, Bershteyn A, Revill P, Bansi-Matharu L, Kripke K, Boily MC, Martin-Hughes R, Johnson LF, Mukandavire Z, Jamieson L, Meyer-Rath G, Hallett TB, Ten Brink D, Kelly SL, Nichols BE, Bendavid E, Mudimu E, Taramusi I, Smith J, Dalal S, Baggaley R, Crowley S, Terris-Prestholt F, Godfrey-Faussett P, Mukui I, Jahn A, Case KK, Havlir D, Petersen M, Kamya M, Koss CA, Balzer LB, Apollo T, Chidarikire T, Mellors JW, Parikh UM, Godfrey C, Cambiano V. Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study. Lancet HIV 2022; 9:e353-e362. [PMID: 35489378 PMCID: PMC9065367 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(22)00029-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anna Bershteyn
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Paul Revill
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | | | | | - Marie-Claude Boily
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Leigh F Johnson
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Zindoga Mukandavire
- Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Emirates Aviation University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Lise Jamieson
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Medical Microbiology, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Gesine Meyer-Rath
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Timothy B Hallett
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Brooke E Nichols
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Medical Microbiology, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Eran Bendavid
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Edinah Mudimu
- Department of Decision Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | - Jennifer Smith
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Shona Dalal
- World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Siobhan Crowley
- The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Peter Godfrey-Faussett
- Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Irene Mukui
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Kelsey K Case
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Diane Havlir
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Maya Petersen
- Divisions of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Moses Kamya
- Department of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda; Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Catherine A Koss
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Laura B Balzer
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
| | | | | | - John W Mellors
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Urvi M Parikh
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Catherine Godfrey
- Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator, Department of State, Washington, DC, USA
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Levy L, Peterson JM, Kudrick LD, Chohan B, Bosek E, Mukui I, Mugambi M, Masyuko S, Mugurungi O, Ndlovu N, Mahaka I, Dunbar M, Hettema A, Kuwengwa RAP, Matse S, Mullick S, Greener L, O'Connor C, Pillay D, Fawzy M, Mellors JW, Parikh UM. Casting a Wide Net: HIV Drug Resistance Monitoring in Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Seroconverters in the Global Evaluation of Microbicide Sensitivity Project. GLOBAL HEALTH: SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022; 10:GHSP-D-21-00122. [PMID: 35487541 PMCID: PMC9053149 DOI: 10.9745/ghsp-d-21-00122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Global Evaluation of Microbicide Sensitivity projects in 4 countries demonstrated the feasibility of establishing an HIV drug resistance monitoring program for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). These projects will provide valuable information on seroconversions in the context of PrEP use and will serve to inform Ministries of Health and policy makers on the need for long-term surveillance approaches. Background: Evidence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) in individuals using oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) who acquire HIV is limited to clinical trials and case studies. More data are needed to understand the risk of HIVDR with oral PrEP during PrEP rollout. Mechanisms to collect these data vary, and are dependent on cost, scale of PrEP distribution, and in-country infrastructure for the identification, collection, and testing of samples from PrEP seroconverters. Methods: The Global Evaluation of Microbicide Sensitivity (GEMS) project, in collaboration with country stakeholders, initiated HIVDR monitoring among new HIV seroconverters with prior PrEP use in Eswatini, Kenya, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Standalone protocols were developed to assess HIVDR among a national sample of PrEP users. In addition, HIVDR testing was incorporated into existing demonstration projects for key populations. Lessons learned: Countries are supportive of conducting a time-limited evaluation of HIVDR during the early stages of PrEP rollout. As PrEP rollout expands, the need for long-term HIVDR monitoring with PrEP will need to be balanced with maintaining national HIV drug resistance surveillance for pretreatment and acquired drug resistance. Laboratory capacity is a common obstacle to setting up a monitoring system. Conclusions: Establishing HIV resistance monitoring within PrEP programs is feasible. Approaches to drug resistance monitoring may evolve as the PrEP programs mature and expand. The methods and implementation support offered by GEMS assisted countries in developing methods to monitor for drug resistance that best fit their PrEP program needs and resources.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Bhavna Chohan
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Everline Bosek
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Irene Mukui
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Mary Mugambi
- National AIDS & STI Control Program, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Owen Mugurungi
- Ministry of Health and Child Care of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Sindy Matse
- Eswatini Ministry of Health, Mbabane, Eswatini
| | - Saiqa Mullick
- Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, Faculty of Health Science, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Letitia Greener
- Population Services International, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Diantha Pillay
- International Partnership for Microbicides, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Kripke K, Eakle R, Cheng A, Rana S, Torjesen K, Stover J. The case for prevention - Primary HIV prevention in the era of universal test and treat: A mathematical modeling study. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 46:101347. [PMID: 35310517 PMCID: PMC8924323 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND As antiretroviral therapy (ART) has scaled up and HIV incidence has declined, some have questioned the continued utility of HIV prevention. This study examines the role and cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention in the context of "universal test and treat" (UTT) in three sub-Saharan countries with generalized HIV epidemics. METHODS Scenarios were created in Spectrum/Goals models for Lesotho, Mozambique, and Uganda with various combinations of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC); pre-exposure prophylaxis; and a highly effective, durable, hypothetical vaccine layered onto three different ART scenarios. One ART scenario held coverage constant at 2008 levels to replicate prevention modeling studies that were conducted prior to UTT. One scenario assumed scale-up to the UNAIDS treatment goals of 90-90-90 by 2025 and 95-95-95 by 2030. An intermediate scenario held ART constant at 2019 coverage. HIV incidence was visualized over time, and cost per HIV infection averted was assessed over 5-, 15-, and 30-year time frames, with 3% annual discounting. FINDINGS Each prevention intervention reduced HIV incidence beyond what was achieved by ART scale-up alone to the 90-90-90/95-95-95 goals, with near-zero incidence achievable by combinations of interventions covering all segments of the population. Cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention may decrease as HIV incidence decreases, but one-time interventions like VMMC and a durable vaccine may remain cost-effective and even cost-saving as ART is scaled up. INTERPRETATION Primary HIV prevention is still needed in the era of UTT. Combination prevention is more impactful than a single, highly effective intervention. Broad population coverage of primary prevention, regardless of cost-effectiveness, will be required in generalized epidemic countries to eradicate HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine Kripke
- Avenir Health, 6930 Carroll Ave., Suite 350, Takoma Park, MD 20912, USA
- Corresponding author: Katharine Kripke, 6930 Carroll Ave., Suite 350, Takoma Park, MD 20912, USA. Telephone: (301) 273-9752.
| | - Robyn Eakle
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Alison Cheng
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Sangeeta Rana
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
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18
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Shahmanesh M, Mthiyane TN, Herbsst C, Neuman M, Adeagbo O, Mee P, Chimbindi N, Smit T, Okesola N, Harling G, McGrath N, Sherr L, Seeley J, Subedar H, Johnson C, Hatzold K, Terris-Prestholt F, Cowan FM, Corbett EL. Effect of peer-distributed HIV self-test kits on demand for biomedical HIV prevention in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a three-armed cluster-randomised trial comparing social networks versus direct delivery. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:e004574. [PMID: 34315730 PMCID: PMC8317107 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE We investigated two peer distribution models of HIV self-testing (HIVST) in HIV prevention demand creation compared with trained young community members (peer navigators). METHODS We used restricted randomisation to allocate 24 peer navigator pairs (clusters) in KwaZulu-Natal 1:1:1: (1) standard of care (SOC): peer navigators distributed clinic referrals, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) information to 18-30 year olds. (2) peer navigator direct distribution (PND): Peer navigators distributed HIVST packs (SOC plus two OraQuick HIVST kits) (3) incentivised peer networks (IPN): peer navigators recruited young community members (seeds) to distribute up to five HIVST packs to 18-30 year olds within their social networks. Seeds received 20 Rand (US$1.5) for each recipient who distributed further packs. The primary outcome was PrEP/ART linkage, defined as screening for PrEP/ART eligibility within 90 days of pack distribution per peer navigator month (pnm) of outreach, in women aged 18-24 (a priority for HIV prevention). Investigators and statisticians were blinded to allocation. Analysis was intention to treat. Total and unit costs were collected prospectively. RESULTS Between March and December 2019, 4163 packs (1098 SOC, 1480 PND, 1585 IPN) were distributed across 24 clusters. During 144 pnm, 272 18-30 year olds linked to PrEP/ART (1.9/pnm). Linkage rates for 18-24-year-old women were lower for IPN (n=26, 0.54/pnm) than PND (n=45, 0.80/pnm; SOC n=49, 0.85/pnm). Rate ratios were 0.68 (95% CI 0.28 to 1.66) for IPN versus PND, 0.64 (95% CI 0.26 to 1.62) for IPN versus SOC and 0.95 (95% CI 0.38 to 2.36) for PND versus SOC. In 18-30 year olds, PND had significantly more linkages than IPN (2.11 vs 0.88/pnm, RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.98). Cost per pack distributed was cheapest for IPN (US$36) c.f. SOC (US$64). Cost per person linked to PrEP/ART was cheaper in both peer navigator arms compared with IPN. DISCUSSION HIVST did not increase demand for PrEP/ART. Incentivised social network distribution reached large numbers with HIVST but resulted in fewer linkages compared with PrEP/ART promotion by peer navigators. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT03751826.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Shahmanesh
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | | | - Carina Herbsst
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | - Melissa Neuman
- MRC International Statistics and Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, London, UK
| | - Oluwafemi Adeagbo
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | - Paul Mee
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London, London, UK
| | - Natsayi Chimbindi
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | - Theresa Smit
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | | | - Guy Harling
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
| | - Nuala McGrath
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa
- Faculty of medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK
| | - Lorraine Sherr
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Janet Seeley
- Department of Global Health &Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Hasina Subedar
- South African National Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Johnson
- HIV, Hepatitis and STI Department, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Karin Hatzold
- Population Services International, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Fern Terris-Prestholt
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, London, UK
| | - Frances M Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
- Department of International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Elizabeth Lucy Corbett
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- TB-HIV Group, Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
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19
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Phillips AN, Bansi-Matharu L, Cambiano V, Ehrenkranz P, Serenata C, Venter F, Pett S, Flexner C, Jahn A, Revill P, Garnett GP. The potential role of long-acting injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine in the treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2021; 9:e620-e627. [PMID: 33770513 PMCID: PMC8050198 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00025-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2020] [Revised: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 01/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction. METHODS We used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated policies in the context of 1000 setting scenarios that reflected characteristics of HIV epidemics and programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared three policies for introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine with continued use of dolutegravir-based oral regimens for: all individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART); individuals with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL (signifying poor adherence to oral drugs, and often associated with drug resistance); and individuals with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL (a group with a lower prevalence of pre-existing drug resistance). We also did cost-effectiveness analysis, taking a health system perspective over a 10 year period, with 3% discounting of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and costs. A cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted was used to establish if a policy was cost-effective. FINDINGS In our model, all policies involving the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine were predicted to lead to an increased proportion of people with HIV on ART, increased viral load suppression, and decreased AIDS-related mortality, with lesser benefits in people with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Its introduction is also predicted to lead to increases in resistance to integrase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors if introduced in all people with HIV on ART or in those with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL, but to a lesser extent if introduced in people with more than 1000 copies per mL due to concentration of its use in people less adherent to oral therapy. Consistent with the effect on AIDS-related mortality, all approaches to the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine are predicted to avert DALYs. Assuming a cost of $120 per person per year, use of this regimen in people with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL was borderline cost-effective (median cost per DALY averted across setting scenarios $404). The other approaches considered for its use are unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per year of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine is considerably reduced. INTERPRETATION Our modelling suggests that injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine offers potential benefits; however, to be a cost-effective option, its introduction might need to be carefully targeted to individuals with HIV who might otherwise have suboptimal adherence to ART. As data accumulate from trials and implementation studies, such findings can be incorporated into the model to better inform on the full consequences of policy alternatives. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, including through the HIV Modelling Consortium (OPP1191655).
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Celicia Serenata
- Ezintsha, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francois Venter
- Ezintsha, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sarah Pett
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK; Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Charles Flexner
- School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Andreas Jahn
- Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi; International Training and Education Center for Health, Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul Revill
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
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20
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Meisner J, Roberts DA, Rodriguez P, Sharma M, Newman Owiredu M, Gomez B, de Mello MB, Bobrik A, Vodianyk A, Storey A, Githuka G, Chidarikire T, Barnabas R, Farid S, Essajee S, Jamil MS, Baggaley R, Johnson C, Drake AL. Optimizing HIV retesting during pregnancy and postpartum in four countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24:e25686. [PMID: 33787064 PMCID: PMC8010369 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2020] [Revised: 02/04/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION HIV retesting during late pregnancy and breastfeeding can help detect new maternal infections and prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), but the optimal timing and cost-effectiveness of maternal retesting remain uncertain. METHODS We constructed deterministic models to assess the health and economic impact of maternal HIV retesting on a hypothetical population of pregnant women, following initial testing in pregnancy, on MTCT in four countries: South Africa and Kenya (high/intermediate HIV prevalence), and Colombia and Ukraine (low HIV prevalence). We evaluated six scenarios with varying retesting frequencies from late in antenatal care (ANC) through nine months postpartum. We compared strategies using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over a 20-year time horizon using country-specific thresholds. RESULTS We found maternal retesting once in late ANC with catch-up testing through six weeks postpartum was cost-effective in Kenya (ICER = $166 per DALY averted) and South Africa (ICER=$289 per DALY averted). This strategy prevented 19% (Kenya) and 12% (South Africa) of infant HIV infections. Adding one or two additional retests postpartum provided smaller benefits (1 to 2 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest). Adding three retests during the postpartum period averted additional infections (1 to 3 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest) but ICERs ($7639 and in Kenya and $11 985 in South Africa) greatly exceeded the cost-effectiveness thresholds. In Colombia and Ukraine, all retesting strategies exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold and prevented few infant infections (up to 31 and 5 infections, respectively). CONCLUSIONS In high HIV burden settings with MTCT rates similar to those seen in Kenya and South Africa, HIV retesting once in late ANC, with subsequent intervention, is the most cost-effective strategy for preventing infant HIV infections. In these settings, two HIV retests postpartum marginally reduced MTCT and were less costly than adding three retests. Retesting in low-burden settings with MTCT rates similar to Colombia and Ukraine was not cost-effective at any time point due to very low HIV prevalence and limited breastfeeding.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - D Allen Roberts
- Department of EpidemiologyUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | - Patricia Rodriguez
- The Comparative Health Outcomes Policy & Economics InstituteUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | - Monisha Sharma
- Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | | | - Bertha Gomez
- Pan American Health Organization/World Health OrganizationColombia OfficeBogotáColombia
| | - Maeve B de Mello
- Department of Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of HealthPan American Health Organization/World Health OrganizationWashingtonDCUSA
| | - Alexey Bobrik
- Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and MalariaGenevaSwitzerland
| | | | | | | | - Thato Chidarikire
- HIV Prevention ProgrammesNational Department of HealthPretoriaSouth Africa
| | - Ruanne Barnabas
- Department of EpidemiologyUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
- Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
- Department of MedicineUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | - Shiza Farid
- Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | | | - Muhammad S Jamil
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STI programmeWorld Health OrganizationGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Rachel Baggaley
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STI programmeWorld Health OrganizationGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Cheryl Johnson
- Global HIV, Hepatitis and STI programmeWorld Health OrganizationGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Alison L Drake
- Department of Global HealthUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
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21
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Ambrosioni J, Petit E, Liegeon G, Laguno M, Miró JM. Primary HIV-1 infection in users of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Lancet HIV 2020; 8:e166-e174. [PMID: 33316212 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(20)30271-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 08/23/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has proven to be a highly effective and safe way to prevent HIV infection. Seroconversion and primary HIV infection are exceptional if adherence to PrEP is good. However, primary HIV infection while using PrEP can occur, albeit rarely, and HIV drug resistance might develop. Furthermore, the scope of PrEP is expected to expand, and clinicians might face potential seroconversions and primary HIV infection in patients starting or taking PrEP. The characteristics of primary HIV infection in users of PrEP are poorly described. PrEP users present a lower viral load peak during primary HIV infection and, frequently, fewer symptoms than individuals not exposed to PrEP. Additionally, PrEP prolongs the stages of seroconversion, thus potentially complicating diagnosis of primary HIV infection. Drug resistance is rare, occurring mostly when PrEP is initiated in undiagnosed patients who are at an extremely early stage of infection, in whom detection of HIV-RNA was not used to rule out HIV infection. Therefore, careful exclusion of primary HIV infection before starting PrEP is crucial. In patients presenting with primary HIV infection while on PrEP, a drug with a high genetic barrier (or even two) should be added to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-emtricitabine until test results for resistance are available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Ambrosioni
- HIV Unit and Infectious Diseases Service, Hospital Clinic-IDIBAPS, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Elisa Petit
- School of Medicine, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Geoffroy Liegeon
- Infectious Disease Department, Saint-Louis Hospital, Paris, France
| | - Montserrat Laguno
- HIV Unit and Infectious Diseases Service, Hospital Clinic-IDIBAPS, Barcelona, Spain; PrEP and Sexual Health Program, Hospital Clinic-IDIBAPS, Barcelona, Spain
| | - José M Miró
- School of Medicine, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
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22
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Jewell BL, Mudimu E, Stover J, Ten Brink D, Phillips AN, Smith JA, Martin-Hughes R, Teng Y, Glaubius R, Mahiane SG, Bansi-Matharu L, Taramusi I, Chagoma N, Morrison M, Doherty M, Marsh K, Bershteyn A, Hallett TB, Kelly SL. Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models. Lancet HIV 2020; 7:e629-e640. [PMID: 32771089 PMCID: PMC7482434 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(20)30211-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2020] [Revised: 06/25/2020] [Accepted: 06/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. Findings A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023–420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). Interpretation During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Britta L Jewell
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Edinah Mudimu
- Department of Decision Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | | | | | - Jennifer A Smith
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Yu Teng
- Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Anna Bershteyn
- New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Timothy B Hallett
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK
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