Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring

Integrated Serosurveillance for Onchocerciasis, Lymphatic Filariasis, and Schistosomiasis in North Darfur, Sudan

Sudan is endemic for multiple neglected tropical diseases, including trachoma, onchocerciasis (OV), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and schistosomiasis (SCH). In 2019, dried blood spot samples were collected for a baseline trachoma serosurvey in three localities (El Seraif, Kotom, and Saraf Omrah) in North Darfur State. None were classified previously as OV- or LF-endemic, although low levels of SCH had been identified in all three. Approximately 30 households from 25 communities in each locality were selected by multistage cluster random sampling. Collections of DBSs were analyzed by multiplex bead assay for antibodies to multiple pathogens. This paper presents data on OV (Ov16), LF (Wb123, Bm14, Bm33), and SCH (soluble egg antigen [SEA], Sm25) antibodies among 8,322 individuals from 2,119 households. The survey-adjusted seroprevalence estimates for Ov16 were <0.3% in all localities. Lymphatic filariasis-antigen seroprevalences were discordant. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 4.6-6.0% (Wb123), 0.99-1.4% (Bm14), and 29.2-33.3% (Bm33). Schistosomiasis seroprevalence estimates among school-aged children ranged from 2.7-8.0% (SEA) and 10.9-15.6% (Sm25). Ov16 seropositivity was low and supported the localities' classification as nonendemic. The results suggested LF exposure, but discordance between antigens, challenges defining seropositivity thresholds, and the absence of programmatic guidance based on antibody serology alone for Wuchereria bancrofti indicate a need for remapping surveys to confirm transmission. Schistosomiasis antibody levels were high enough to warrant further mapping to guide treatment decisions. The lack of gold standards limited interpretation of results, particularly for LF, but in resource-challenged areas, integrated serological surveillance offers the possibility of efficient monitoring of exposure to multiple diseases.

Onchocerciasis: Target product profiles of in vitro diagnostics to support onchocerciasis elimination mapping and mass drug administration stopping decisions

In June 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO), recognizing the need for new diagnostics to support the control and elimination of onchocerciasis, published the target product profiles (TPPs) of new tests that would support the two most immediate needs: (a) mapping onchocerciasis in areas of low prevalence and (b) deciding when to stop mass drug administration programs. In both instances, the test should ideally detect an antigen specific for live, adult O. volvulus female worms. The preferred format is a field-deployable rapid test. For mapping, the test needs to be ≥ 60% sensitive and ≥ 99.8% specific, while to support stopping decisions, the test must be ≥ 89% sensitive and ≥ 99.8% specific. The requirement for extremely high specificity is dictated by the need to detect with sufficient statistical confidence the low seroprevalence threshold set by WHO. Surveys designed to detect a 1–2% prevalence of a given biomarker, as is the case here, cannot tolerate more than 0.2% of false-positives. Otherwise, the background noise would drown out the signal. It is recognized that reaching and demonstrating such a stringent specificity criterion will be challenging, but test developers can expect to be assisted by national governments and implementing partners for adequately powered field validation.

River blindness, also known as onchocerciasis, affects 21 million people, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa. For decades, the international community has fought this disease through mass drug administration (MDA) programs focused on controlling morbidity in areas of high prevalence. Now, as part of their 2021–2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set an ambitious goal, shifting from controlling to eliminating onchocerciasis. This implies addressing areas of low infection prevalence. As a result, new diagnostics tools are required to identify and map areas of low onchocerciasis prevalence and to help decide where to initiate MDA. Similarly, new diagnostics are required to decide when the prevalence of onchocerciasis is sufficiently low to justify stopping MDA. A WHO-appointed independent panel, the Diagnostics Technical Advisory Group for Neglected Tropical Diseases, and its subgroup specific to onchocerciasis, have established the desired Target Product Profiles (TPPs) for such new tests. The TPPs were posted in June 2021 on the WHO website. This article describes the methodology used to produce the TPPs, with an emphasis on calculating the required sensitivity and specificity characteristics.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Demographic patterns of human antibody levels to Simulium damnosum s.l. saliva in onchocerciasis-endemic areas: An indicator of exposure to vector bites

BACKGROUND

In onchocerciasis endemic areas in Africa, heterogenous biting rates by blackfly vectors on humans are assumed to partially explain age- and sex-dependent infection patterns with Onchocerca volvulus. To underpin these assumptions and further improve predictions made by onchocerciasis transmission models, demographic patterns in antibody responses to salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l. are evaluated as a measure of blackfly exposure.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Recently developed IgG and IgM anti-saliva immunoassays for S. damnosum s.l. were applied to blood samples collected from residents in four onchocerciasis endemic villages in Ghana. Demographic patterns in antibody levels according to village, sex and age were explored by fitting generalized linear models. Antibody levels varied between villages but showed consistent patterns with age and sex. Both IgG and IgM responses declined with increasing age. IgG responses were generally lower in males than in females and exhibited a steeper decline in adult males than in adult females. No sex-specific difference was observed in IgM responses.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The decline in age-specific antibody patterns suggested development of immunotolerance or desensitization to blackfly saliva antigen in response to persistent exposure. The variation between sexes, and between adults and youngsters may reflect differences in behaviour influencing cumulative exposure. These measures of antibody acquisition and decay could be incorporated into onchocerciasis transmission models towards informing onchocerciasis control, elimination, and surveillance.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Unusual Localization of Blood-Borne Loa loa Microfilariae in the Skin Depends on Microfilarial Density in the Blood: Implications for Onchocerciasis Diagnosis in Coendemic Areas

Background

The diagnostic gold standard for onchocerciasis relies on identification and enumeration of (skin-dwelling) Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mf) using the skin snip technique (SST). In a recent study, blood-borne Loa loa mf were found by SST in individuals heavily infected with L. loa, and microscopically misidentified as O. volvulus due to their superficially similar morphology. This study investigates the relationship between L. loa microfilarial density (Loa MFD) and the probability of testing SST positive.

Methods

A total of 1053 participants from the (onchocerciasis and loiasis coendemic) East Region in Cameroon were tested for (1) Loa MFD in blood samples, (2) O. volvulus presence by SST, and (3) Immunoglobulin (Ig) G4 antibody positivity to Ov16 by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to perform a supervised classification of SST status and identify a Loa MFD threshold above which it is highly likely to find L. loa mf in skin snips.

Results

Of 1011 Ov16-negative individuals, 28 (2.8%) tested SST positive and 150 (14.8%) were L. loa positive. The range of Loa MFD was 0–85 200 mf/mL. The CART model subdivided the sample into 2 Loa MFD classes with a discrimination threshold of 4080 (95% CI, 2180–12 240) mf/mL. The probability of being SST positive exceeded 27% when Loa MFD was >4080 mf/mL.

Conclusions

The probability of finding L. loa mf by SST increases significantly with Loa MFD. Skin-snip polymerase chain reaction would be useful when monitoring onchocerciasis prevalence by SST in onchocerciasis–loiasis coendemic areas.

Scaling-Down Mass Ivermectin Treatment for Onchocerciasis Elimination: Modeling the Impact of the Geographical Unit for Decision Making

Background

Due to spatial heterogeneity in onchocerciasis transmission, the duration of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) required for eliminating onchocerciasis will vary within endemic areas and the occurrence of transmission “hotspots” is inevitable. The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made will be a key driver in how rapidly national programs can scale down active intervention upon achieving the epidemiological targets for elimination.

Methods

We used 2 onchocerciasis models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) to predict the likelihood of achieving elimination by 2030 in Africa, accounting for variation in preintervention endemicity levels and histories of ivermectin treatment. We explore how decision making at contrasting geographical scales (community vs larger scale “project”) changes projections on populations still requiring MDA or transitioning to post-treatment surveillance.

Results

The total population considered grows from 118 million people in 2020 to 136 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at project level, the number of people requiring treatment declines from 69–118 million in 2020 to 59–118 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at community level, the numbers decline from 23–81 million in 2020 to 15–63 million in 2030. The lower estimates in these prediction intervals are based on ONCHOSIM, the upper limits on EPIONCHO-IBM.

Conclusions

The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made strongly determines how rapidly national onchocerciasis programs can scale down MDA programs. Stopping in portions of project areas or transmission zones would free up human and economic resources.

What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?

As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims—for example, minimizing morbidity and minimizing costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move toward 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.

Human immune response against salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l.: A new epidemiological marker for exposure to blackfly bites in onchocerciasis endemic areas

BACKGROUND

Simulium damnosum sensu lato (s.l.) blackflies transmit Onchocerca volvulus, a filarial nematode that causes human onchocerciasis. Human landing catches (HLCs) is currently the sole method used to estimate blackfly biting rates but is labour-intensive and questionable on ethical grounds. A potential alternative is to measure host antibodies to vector saliva deposited during bloodfeeding. In this study, immunoassays to quantify human antibody responses to S. damnosum s.l. saliva were developed, and the salivary proteome of S. damnosum s.l. was investigated.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Blood samples from people living in onchocerciasis-endemic areas in Ghana were collected during the wet season; samples from people living in Accra, a blackfly-free area, were considered negative controls and compared to samples from blackfly-free locations in Sudan. Blackflies were collected by HLCs and dissected to extract their salivary glands. An ELISA measuring anti-S. damnosum s.l. salivary IgG and IgM was optimized and used to quantify the humoral immune response of 958 individuals. Both immunoassays differentiated negative controls from endemic participants. Salivary proteins were separated by gel-electrophoresis, and antigenic proteins visualized by immunoblot. Liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed to characterize the proteome of S. damnosum s.l. salivary glands. Several antigenic proteins were recognized, with the major ones located around 15 and 40 kDa. LC-MS/MS identified the presence of antigen 5-related protein, apyrase/nucleotidase, and hyaluronidase.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study validated for the first time human immunoassays that quantify humoral immune responses as potential markers of exposure to blackfly bites. These assays have the potential to facilitate understanding patterns of exposure as well as evaluating the impact of vector control on biting rates. Future studies need to investigate seasonal fluctuations of these antibody responses, potential cross-reactions with other bloodsucking arthropods, and thoroughly identify the most immunogenic proteins.

How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity.

METHODS

We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios.

RESULTS

ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity.

CONCLUSION

We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA.

The impact of mass drug administration expansion to low onchocerciasis prevalence settings in case of connected villages

Background

The existence of locations with low but stable onchocerciasis prevalence is not well understood. An often suggested yet poorly investigated explanation is that the infection spills over from neighbouring locations with higher infection densities.

Methodology

We adapted the stochastic individual based model ONCHOSIM to enable the simulation of multiple villages, with separate blackfly (intermediate host) and human populations, which are connected through the regular movement of the villagers and/or the flies. With this model we explore the impact of the type, direction and degree of connectedness, and of the impact of localized or full-area mass drug administration (MDA) over a range of connected village settings.

Principal findings

In settings with annual fly biting rates (ABR) below the threshold needed for stable local transmission, persistence of onchocerciasis prevalence can well be explained by regular human traffic and/or fly movement from locations with higher ABR. Elimination of onchocerciasis will then theoretically be reached by only implementing MDA in the higher prevalence area, although lingering infection in the low prevalence location can trigger resurgence of transmission in the total region when MDA is stopped too soon. Expanding MDA implementation to the lower ABR location can therefore shorten the duration of MDA needed. For example, when prevalence spill-over is due to human traffic, and both locations have about equal populations, then the MDA duration can be shortened by up to three years. If the lower ABR location has twice as many inhabitants, the reduction can even be up to six years, but if spill-over is due to fly movement, the expected reduction is less than a year.

Conclusions/Significance

Although MDA implementation might not always be necessary in locations with stable low onchocerciasis prevalence, in many circumstances it is recommended to accelerate achieving elimination in the wider area.

When infected by onchocerciasis worm parasites, people can eventually develop blindness or severe skin morbidity. Over the past decades, in most places with high onchocerciasis prevalence, annual mass drug administration has become freely available for all inhabitants, regardless of their infection status. This policy has been highly successful in decreasing morbidity. For the next aim, to eliminate onchocerciasis, this intervention is now being expanded to lower prevalence locations. We have adapted an existing simulation model of the spread of onchocerciasis to allow us to model settings where multiple villages are connected, through movement of either humans or blackflies, the intermediate host. By this connection, worms could spill over from a high prevalence village to neighbouring villages with lower prevalence. For such situations, we have examined the impact of implementing treatment only in the high prevalence village, or also in one or two lower prevalence villages. We conclude that for elimination of onchocerciasis transmission, treatment in the lower prevalence villages may not actually be needed, but the total duration of mass drug administration in the entire area can be significantly decreased by expanding treatment to these villages.

Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis: From parasite biology and immunology to diagnosis and control

Infection with the pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is responsible for a substantial global burden of disease, not only restricted to its impact on human health, but also resulting in a considerable economic burden to smallholder pig farmers due to pig cysticercosis infection. The life-cycle, parasitology and immunology of T. solium are complex, involving pigs (the intermediate host, harbouring the larval metacestode stage), humans (the definitive host, harbouring the adult tapeworm, in addition to acting as accidental intermediate hosts) and the environment (the source of infection with eggs/proglottids). We review the parasitology, immunology, and epidemiology of the infection associated with each of the T. solium life-cycle stages, including the pre-adult/adult tapeworm responsible for human taeniasis; post-oncosphere and cysticercus associated with porcine and human cysticercosis, and the biological characteristics of eggs in the environment. We discuss the burden associated, in endemic settings, with neurocysticercosis (NCC) in humans, and the broader cross-sectoral economic impact associated both with NCC and porcine cysticercosis, the latter impacting food-value chains. Existing tools for diagnostics and control interventions that target different stages of the T. solium transmission cycle are reviewed and their limitations discussed. Currently, no national T. solium control programmes have been established in endemic areas, with further work required to identify optimal strategies according to epidemiological setting. There is increasing evidence suggesting that cross-sectoral interventions which target the parasite in both the human and pig host provide the most effective approaches for achieving control and ultimately elimination. We discuss future avenues for research on T. solium to support the attainment of the goals proposed in the revised World Health Organisation neglected tropical diseases roadmap for 2021-2030 adopted at the 73rd World Health Assembly in November 2020.

What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030.

METHODS

Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020-2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies.

RESULTS

Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19's impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM).

CONCLUSIONS

Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.

Taking the strain out of onchocerciasis? A reanalysis of blindness and transmission data does not support the existence of a savannah blinding strain of onchocerciasis in West Africa

Onchocerciasis (also known as 'river blindness'), is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) caused by the (Simulium-transmitted) filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. The occurrence of 'blinding' (savannah) and non-blinding (forest) parasite strains and the existence of corresponding, locally adapted Onchocerca-Simulium complexes were postulated to explain greater blindness prevalence in savannah than in forest foci. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) focused anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions in savannah endemic areas. In this paper, village-level data on blindness prevalence, microfilarial prevalence, and transmission intensity (measured by the annual transmission potential, the number of infective, L3, larvae per person per year) were extracted from 16 West-Central Africa-based publications, and analysed according to habitat (forest, forest-savannah mosaic, savannah) to test the dichotomous strain hypothesis in relation to blindness. When adjusting for sample size, there were no statistically significant differences in blindness prevalence between the habitats (one-way ANOVA, P=0.68, mean prevalence for forest=1.76±0.37 (SE); mosaic=1.49±0.38; savannah=1.89±0.26). The well-known relationship between blindness prevalence and annual transmission potential for savannah habitats was confirmed and shown to hold for (but not to be statistically different from) forest foci (excluding data from southern Côte d'Ivoire, in which blindness prevalence was significantly lower than in other West African forest communities, but which had been the focus of studies leading to the strain-blindness hypothesis that was accepted by OCP planners). We conclude that the evidence for a savannah blinding onchocerciasis strain in simple contrast with a non-blinding forest strain is equivocal. A re-appraisal of the strain hypothesis to explain patterns of ocular disease is needed to improve understanding of onchocerciasis epidemiology and disease burden estimates in the light of the WHO 2030 goals for onchocerciasis.

When, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination

As neglected tropical disease programs look to consolidate the successes of moving towards elimination, we need to understand the dynamics of transmission at low prevalence to inform surveillance strategies for detecting elimination and resurgence. In this special collection, modelling insights are used to highlight drivers of local elimination, evaluate strategies for detecting resurgence, and show the importance of rational spatial sampling schemes for several neglected tropical diseases (specifically schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, lymphatic filariasis, trachoma, onchocerciasis, visceral leishmaniasis, and gambiense sleeping sickness).

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles.

Drugs for filariases are under development and clinical trial simulators could help to inform the design of clinical trials. Here, Walker et al. use an individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model to project trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug, resolving key design choices.