Predicting COVID-19 county-level case number trend by combining demographic characteristics and social distancing policies

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the time-varying reproduction number: statistical methods

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted global health systems, requiring the monitoring of infection waves and strategies to control transmission. Estimating the time-varying reproduction number is crucial for understanding the epidemic and guiding interventions.

Methods

Probability distributions of serial interval are estimated for Pre-Delta and Delta periods. We conducted a comparative analysis of time-varying reproduction numbers, taking into account population immunity and variant differences. We incorporated the regional heterogeneity and age distribution of the population, as well as the evolving variants and vaccination rates over time. COVID-19 transmission dynamics were analyzed with variants and vaccination.

Results

The reproduction number is computed with and without considering variant-based immunity. In addition, values of reproduction number significantly differed by variants, emphasizing immunity's importance. Enhanced vaccination efforts and stringent control measures were effective in reducing the transmission of the Delta variant. Conversely, Pre-Delta variant appeared less influenced by immunity levels, due to lower vaccination rates. Furthermore, during the Pre-Delta period, there was a significant difference between the region-specific and the non-region-specific reproduction numbers, with particularly distinct pattern differences observed in Gangwon, Gyeongbuk, and Jeju in Korea.

Discussion

This research elucidates the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission concerning the dominance of the Delta variant, the efficacy of vaccinations, and the influence of immunity levels. It highlights the necessity for targeted interventions and extensive vaccination coverage. This study makes a significant contribution to the understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and informs public health strategies.

Blockchain-enabled immutable, distributed, and highly available clinical research activity logging system for federated COVID-19 data analysis from multiple institutions

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a distributed, immutable, and highly available cross-cloud blockchain system to facilitate federated data analysis activities among multiple institutions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We preprocessed 9166 COVID-19 Structured Query Language (SQL) code, summary statistics, and user activity logs, from the GitHub repository of the Reliable Response Data Discovery for COVID-19 (R2D2) Consortium. The repository collected local summary statistics from participating institutions and aggregated the global result to a COVID-19-related clinical query, previously posted by clinicians on a website. We developed both on-chain and off-chain components to store/query these activity logs and their associated queries/results on a blockchain for immutability, transparency, and high availability of research communication. We measured run-time efficiency of contract deployment, network transactions, and confirmed the accuracy of recorded logs compared to a centralized baseline solution.

RESULTS

The smart contract deployment took 4.5 s on an average. The time to record an activity log on blockchain was slightly over 2 s, versus 5-9 s for baseline. For querying, each query took on an average less than 0.4 s on blockchain, versus around 2.1 s for baseline.

DISCUSSION

The low deployment, recording, and querying times confirm the feasibility of our cross-cloud, blockchain-based federated data analysis system. We have yet to evaluate the system on a larger network with multiple nodes per cloud, to consider how to accommodate a surge in activities, and to investigate methods to lower querying time as the blockchain grows.

CONCLUSION

Blockchain technology can be used to support federated data analysis among multiple institutions.