Survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients by clinical symptoms: development of a simple indicator

The impact of a web-based prognostic calculator on prognostic confidence in outpatient palliative care

PURPOSE

Clinicians are often uncertain about their prognostic estimates, which may impede prognostic communication and clinical decision-making. We assessed the impact of a web-based prognostic calculator on physicians' prognostic confidence.

METHODS

In this prospective study, palliative care physicians estimated the prognosis of patients with advanced cancer in an outpatient clinic using the temporal, surprise, and probabilistic approaches for 6 m, 3 m, 2 m, 1 m, 2 w, 1 w, and 3 d. They then reviewed information from www.predictsurvival.com , which calculated survival estimates from seven validated prognostic scores, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index, and Palliative Performance Status, and again provided their prognostic estimates after calculator use. The primary outcome was prognostic confidence in temporal CPS (0-10 numeric rating scale, 0 = not confident, 10 = most confident).

RESULTS

Twenty palliative care physicians estimated prognoses for 217 patients. The mean (standard deviation) prognostic confidence significantly increased from 5.59 (1.68) before to 6.94 (1.39) after calculator use (p < 0.001). A significantly greater proportion of physicians reported feeling confident enough in their prognosis to share it with patients (44% vs. 74%, p < 0.001) and formulate care recommendations (80% vs. 94%, p < 0.001) after calculator use. Prognostic accuracy did not differ significantly before or after calculator use, ranging from 55-100%, 29-98%, and 48-100% for the temporal, surprise, and probabilistic approaches, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This web-based prognostic calculator was associated with increased prognostic confidence and willingness to discuss prognosis. Further research is needed to examine how prognostic tools may augment prognostic discussions and clinical decision-making.

Malignancy-related ascites in palliative care units: prognostic factor analysis

OBJECTIVES

The prognostic factors in patients with malignancy-related ascites (MA) have been poorly investigated. This study aimed to evaluate both the prognostic impact of MA on terminally ill patients with cancer and the prognostic factors in those with MA.

METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of a multicentre, prospective cohort study. Patients with advanced cancer admitted to palliative care units at 23 institutions and aged≥18 years were enrolled between January and December 2017. Overall survival (OS) was compared according to MA. A multivariate analysis was conducted to explore prognostic factors in patients with MA.

RESULTS

Of 1896 eligible patients, gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary pancreatic cancers accounted for 42.5%. 568 (30.0%) of the total had MA. Patients with MA had significantly shorter OS than those without MA (median, 14 vs 22 days, respectively; HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.39 to 1.72; p<0.01). A multivariate analysis showed that MA was a poor prognostic factor (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.50; p<0.01) and that among patients with MA, significant poor prognostic factors were liver metastasis, moderately to severely reduced oral intake, delirium, oedema, gastric cancer, high serum creatinine, high serum C reactive protein, high serum total bilirubin, dyspnoea and fatigue, while significant good prognostic factors were female sex, good performance status, high serum albumin and colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

MA had a negative impact on survival in terminally ill patients with cancer. A multivariate analysis revealed several prognostic factors in patients with terminal cancer and MA.

Performance of the Palliative Prognostic Index for cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinician predicted survival for cancer patients is often inaccurate, and prognostic tools may be helpful, such as the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI). The PPI development study reported that when PPI score is greater than 6, it predicted survival of less than 3 weeks with a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 85%. When PPI score is greater than 4, it predicts survival of less than 6 weeks with a sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 77%. However, subsequent PPI validation studies have evaluated various thresholds and survival durations, and it is unclear which is most appropriate for use in clinical practice. With the development of numerous prognostic tools, it is also unclear which is most accurate and feasible for use in multiple care settings.

AIM

We evaluated PPI model performance in predicting survival of adult cancer patients based on different thresholds and survival durations and compared it to other prognostic tools.

DESIGN

This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022302679). We calculated the pooled sensitivity and specificity of each threshold using bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and pooled diagnostic odds ratio of each survival duration using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were used to compare PPI performance with clinician predicted survival and other prognostic tools. Findings which could not be included in meta-analyses were summarised narratively.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, CINAHL, ProQuest and Google Scholar were searched for articles published from inception till 7 January 2022. Both retrospective and prospective observational studies evaluating PPI performance in predicting survival of adult cancer patients in any setting were included. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used for quality appraisal.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine studies evaluating PPI performance in predicting survival of adult cancer patients were included (n = 19,714 patients). Across meta-analyses of 12 PPI score thresholds and survival durations, we found that PPI was most accurate for predicting survival of <3 weeks and <6 weeks. Survival prediction of <3 weeks was most accurate when PPI score>6 (pooled sensitivity = 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.75, specificity = 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). Survival prediction of <6 weeks was most accurate when PPI score>4 (pooled sensitivity = 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.78, specificity = 0.74, 95% CI 0.66-0.80). Comparative meta-analyses found that PPI performed similarly to Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score in predicting <3-week survival, but less accurately in <30-day survival prediction. However, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score only provide <30-day survival probabilities, and it is uncertain how this would be helpful for patients and clinicians. PPI also performed similarly to clinician predicted survival in predicting <30-day survival. However, these findings should be interpreted with caution as limited studies were available for comparative meta-analyses. Risk of bias was high for all studies, mainly due to poor reporting of statistical analyses. while there were low applicability concerns for most (38/39) studies.

CONCLUSIONS

PPI score>6 should be used for <3-week survival prediction, and PPI score>4 for <6-week survival. PPI is easily scored and does not require invasive tests, and thus would be easily implemented in multiple care settings. Given the acceptable accuracy of PPI in predicting <3- and <6-week survival and its objective nature, it could be used to cross-check clinician predicted survival especially when clinicians have doubts about their own judgement, or when clinician estimates seem to be less reliable. Future studies should adhere to the reporting guidelines and provide comprehensive analyses of PPI model performance.

Clinical frailty and performance scale translation in palliative care: scoping review

BACKGROUND

Frailty is associated with advancing age and increases the risk of adverse outcomes and death. Routine assessment of frailty is becoming more common in a number of healthcare settings, but not in palliative care, where performance scales (eg, the Australia-modified Karnofsky Performance Status Scale (AKPS)) are more commonly employed. A shared understanding of performance and frailty measures could aid interspecialty collaboration in both end-of-life care research and clinical practice.

AIMS

To identify and synthesise evidence comparing measures of performance routinely collected in palliative care with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and create a conversion chart to support interspecialty communication.

METHODS

A scoping literature review with comprehensive searches of PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid SP, the Cochrane Library and reference lists. Eligible articles compared the CFS with the AKPS, Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Karnofsky Performance Scale or Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status or compared these performance scales, in patients aged >18 in any setting.

RESULTS

Searches retrieved 3124 articles. Two articles directly compared CFS to the PPS. Thirteen studies translated between different performance scores, facilitating subsequent conversion to CFS, specifically: AKPS/PPS 10/20=very severe frailty, AKPS/PPS 30=severe frailty, AKPS/PPS 40/50=moderate frailty, AKPS/PPS60=mild frailty.

CONCLUSION

We present a tool for converting between the CFS and performance measures commonly used in palliative care. A small number of studies provided evidence for the direct translation between CFS and the PPS. Therefore, more primary evidence is needed from a wider range of population settings, and performance measures to support this conversion.

Prediction value of the LACE index to identify older adults at high risk for all-cause mortality in South Korea: a nationwide population-based study

Background

As a tool to predict early hospital readmission, little is known about the association between LACE index and all-cause mortality in older adults. We aimed to validate the LACE index to predict all-cause mortality in older adults and also analyzed the LACE index outcome of all-cause mortality depending on the disease and age of the participants.

Methods

We used the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) cohort, a nationwide claims database of Koreans. We enrolled 7491 patients who were hospitalized at least once between 2003 and 2004, aged ≥65 years as of the year of discharge, and subsequently followed-up until 2015. We estimated the LACE index using the NHI database. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality. Furthermore, we investigated all-cause mortality according to age and underlying disease when the LACE index was ≥10 and < 10, respectively.

Results

In populations over 65 years of age, patients with LACE index ≥10 had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality than in those with LACE index < 10. (HR, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.35–1.54). For those patients aged 65–74 years, the HR of all-cause mortality was found to be higher in patients with LACE index≥10 than in those with LACE index < 10 in almost all the diseases except CRF and mental illnesses. And those patients aged ≥75 years, the HR of all- cause mortality was found to be higher in patients with LACE index ≥10 than in those with LACE index < 10 in the diseases of pneumonia and MACE.

Conclusion

This is the first study to validate the predictive power of the LACE index to identify older adults at high risk for all-cause mortality using nationwide cohort data. Our findings have policy implications for selecting or managing patients who need post-discharge management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02848-4.

Applied Informatics Decision Support Tool for Mortality Predictions in Patients With Cancer

PURPOSE

With rapidly evolving treatment options in cancer, the complexity in the clinical decision-making process for oncologists represents a growing challenge magnified by oncologists' disposition of intuition-based assessment of treatment risks and overall mortality. Given the unmet need for accurate prognostication with meaningful clinical rationale, we developed a highly interpretable prediction tool to identify patients with high mortality risk before the start of treatment regimens.

METHODS

We obtained electronic health record data between 2004 and 2014 from a large national cancer center and extracted 401 predictors, including demographics, diagnosis, gene mutations, treatment history, comorbidities, resource utilization, vital signs, and laboratory test results. We built an actionable tool using novel developments in modern machine learning to predict 60-, 90- and 180-day mortality from the start of an anticancer regimen. The model was validated in unseen data against benchmark models.

RESULTS

We identified 23,983 patients who initiated 46,646 anticancer treatment lines, with a median survival of 514 days. Our proposed prediction models achieved significantly higher estimation quality in unseen data (area under the curve, 0.83 to 0.86) compared with benchmark models. We identified key predictors of mortality, such as change in weight and albumin levels. The results are presented in an interactive and interpretable tool ( www.oncomortality.com ).

CONCLUSION

Our fully transparent prediction model was able to distinguish with high precision between highest- and lowest-risk patients. Given the rich data available in electronic health records and advances in machine learning methods, this tool can have significant implications for value-based shared decision making at the point of care and personalized goals-of-care management to catalyze practice reforms.

Prognostic value for mortality of the new FADOI-COMPLIMED score(s) in patients hospitalized in medical wards

Background

Recently we defined a user-friendly tool (FADOI-COMPLIMED scores—FCS) to assess complexity of patients hospitalized in medical wards. FCS-1 is an average between the Barthel Index and the Exton-Smith score, while FCS-2 is obtained by using the Charlson score. The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of the FCS to predict mortality in-hospital and after 1-3-6-12-months. In this perspective, we performed comparisons with the validated Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI).

Methods

It is a multicenter, prospective observational study, enrolling patients aged over 40, suffering from at least two chronic diseases and consecutively admitted to Internal Medicine departments. For each patient, data from 13 questionnaires were collected. Survival follow-up was conducted at 1-3-6-12 months after discharge. The relationships between cumulative incidences of death with FCS were investigated with logistic regression analyses. ROC curve analyses were performed in order to compare the predictiveness of the logistic models based on FCS with respect to those with MPI taken as reference.

Results

A cohort of 541 patients was evaluated. A 10-point higher value for FCS-1 and FCS-2 leads to an increased risk of 1-year death equal to 25.0% and 27.1%, respectively. In case of in-hospital mortality, the relevant percentages were 63.1% and 15.3%. The logistic model based on FCS is significantly more predictive than the model based on MPI (which requires an almost doubled number of items) for all the time-points considered.

Conclusions

Assessment of prognosis of patients has the potential to guide clinical decision-making and lead to better care. We propose a new, efficient and easy-to-use instrument based on FCS, which demonstrated a good predictive power for mortality in patients hospitalized in medical wards. This tool may be of interest for clinical practice, since it well balances feasibility (requiring the compilation of 34 items, taking around 10 minutes) and performance.

Estimating the short-term prognosis to adjust the transfer of patients with terminal cancer to medium-stay palliative care units

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Clinical management for terminal patients should consider various aspects, particularly the patient's functional assessment, which correlates well with the short-term prognosis. The prognosis could improve if the presence of symptoms strongly associated with a poorer progression were included. The study's main objective was to assess whether the prognosis according to the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) improved with the presence/absence of pain-dyspnoea-delirium symptoms. The secondary objective was to determine caregiver satisfaction with the transfer to medium-stay palliative care units (MSPCUs), which are prepared for medium stays of approximately one month.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

We conducted a prospective, observational, multicentre (regional) study that analysed survival in MSPCUs according to the PPS dichotomized to>20% and≤20%. We estimated the mean survival functions using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared them according to the Cox proportional hazards ratios (HR). Caregiver satisfaction was studied using an anonymous self-administered Likert questionnaire.

RESULTS

The study included 130 patients. The PPS≤20% and PPS>20% subgroups had a median survival of 6 (3-13) days and 21 (11-42) days, respectively, with an unadjusted mortality HR 3.1-fold greater in the PPS≤20% subgroup. The HR did not change when adjusted for the symptoms. Eighty-three percent of the caregivers found the transfer beneficial, and 40% observed better patient care.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients transferred from general hospitals to MSPCUs, PPS scores≤20% were associated with survival shorter than one week, with a 3-fold higher mortality HR than patients with PPS scores>20%, without the analysis adjusted for the presence of pain-dyspnoea-delirium providing greater prognostic accuracy. The caregivers found benefits mainly in the convenience of the facilities and distance.

Evaluation of frequency of Clinical Symptoms and Signs within Six Months Prior to Death in Patients with Advanced Solid Cancers

This retrospective study documented the frequency of the clinical symptoms and signs that increase in advanced cancer patients as they move toward death in order to create a sum score and correlate it with survival. Of 572 adult patients who were treated in four selected hospitals and who died in 1998 and 1999, data at six, three, and one month(s) prior to death was available for 257. The results showed that the number of symptoms and certain clinical findings accelerated toward death, increasing the sum score. Younger patients obtained higher sum scores at one month prior to death than did elderly ones (p=0.014); this suggests that elderly patients die at a point where they show less worsening in their clinical condition than do younger patients. The score was independent of cancer type or gender. The results of this analysis provide data for further development of a clinical tool to predict long-term survival in palliative care settings.

Relationship of nutritional status and inflammation with survival in patients with advanced cancer in palliative care

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional and inflammatory status in patients with advanced cancer receiving palliative care.

METHODS

The systemic inflammatory response was assessed using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), and nutritional status was evaluated according to the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in 172 patients evaluated on their first visit in the Palliative Care Unit at the National Cancer Institute in Brazil. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to define the best cutoff point for the death-related PG-SGA score in 90 d. Kaplan-Meier curves were conducted for survival analyses, and logistic regression analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

According to the PG-SGA, 83.6% of the patients (n = 143) were malnourished (B + C) and 34.8% (n = 53) had mGPS ≥1. The best cutoff of the PG-SGA score for death was ≥19 points (area under the curve, 0.69; P = 0.041). Patients with scores ≥19, mGPS ≥1, albumin <3.5 g/dL, and C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/L had a significantly lower overall survival. According to the multivariate analysis, albumin <3.5 g/dL (hazard ratio [HR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-3.58), mGPS ≥1 (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-2.22), and PG-SGA score ≥19 (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.08-2.55) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival.

CONCLUSION

The severity of the systemic inflammation and the poor nutritional status predict survival and were considered independent prognostic factors. Thus they can be useful tools for nutritional evaluation in palliative care.

Survival prediction for advanced cancer patients in the real world: A comparison of the Palliative Prognostic Score, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP score), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP score), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model (PiPS model).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 58 palliative care services, including 19 hospital palliative care teams, 16 palliative care units and 23 home palliative care services, in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Analyses were performed involving four patient groups: those treated by palliative care teams, those in palliative care units, those at home and those receiving chemotherapy.

RESULTS

We recruited 2426 participants, and 2361 patients were finally analysed. Risk groups based on these instruments successfully identified patients with different survival profiles in all groups. The feasibility of PPI and modified PiPS-A was more than 90% in all groups, followed by PaP and D-PaP scores; modified PiPS-B had the lowest feasibility. The accuracy of prognostic scores was ⩾69% in all groups and the difference was within 13%, while c-statistics were significantly lower with the PPI than PaP and D-PaP scores.

CONCLUSION

The PaP score, D-PaP score, PPI and modified PiPS model provided distinct survival groups for patients in the three palliative care settings and those receiving chemotherapy. The PPI seems to be suitable for routine clinical use for situations where rough estimates of prognosis are sufficient and/or patients do not want invasive procedure. If clinicians can address more items, the modified PiPS-A would be a non-invasive alternative. In cases where blood samples are available or those requiring more accurate prediction, the PaP and D-PaP scores and modified PiPS-B would be more appropriate.

Palliative sedation, foregoing life-sustaining treatment, and aid-in-dying: what is the difference?

After a review of terminology, I identify-in addition to Margaret Battin's list of five primary arguments for and against aid-in-dying-the argument from functional equivalence as another primary argument. I introduce a novel way to approach this argument based on Bernard Lonergan's generalized empirical method (GEM). Then I proceed on the basis of GEM to distinguish palliative sedation, palliative sedation to unconsciousness when prognosis is less than two weeks, and foregoing life-sustaining treatment from aid-in-dying. I conclude (1) that aid-in-dying must be justified on its own merits and not on the basis of these well-established palliative care practices; and (2) that societies must decide, in weighing the merits of aid-in-dying, whether or not to make the judgment that no life is better than life-like-this (however this is specified) part of their operative value structure.

Independent validation of the modified prognosis palliative care study predictor models in three palliative care settings

CONTEXT

Accurate prognostic information in palliative care settings is needed for patients to make decisions and set goals and priorities. The Prognosis Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor models were presented in 2011, but have not yet been fully validated by other research teams.

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this study is to examine the accuracy and to validate the modified PiPS (using physician-proxy ratings of mental status instead of patient interviews) in three palliative care settings, namely palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services.

METHODS

This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in 58 palliative care services including 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 2426 subjects were recruited. For reasons including lack of followup and missing variables (primarily blood examination data), we obtained analyzable data from 2212 and 1257 patients for the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B, respectively. In all palliative care settings, both the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B identified three risk groups with different survival rates (P<0.001). The absolute agreement ranged from 56% to 60% in the PiPS-A model and 60% to 62% in the PiPS-B model.

CONCLUSION

The modified PiPS was successfully validated and can be useful in palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services.

A brief review of survival prediction of advanced cancer patients

Survival prediction of advanced cancer patients remains an important task for palliative clinicians. It has transformed from an art form into a more scientific branch of the discipline with the evolution of palliative medicine and use of statistical estimates of survival. Both clinician predicted survival and actuarial estimation of survival have their uses and drawbacks. This article gives a practical and quick summary of the pros and cons of clinician survival prediction and actuarial-based prognostic tools used at the bedside.

Survival Prediction in Ambulatory Patients With Stage III/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Using the Palliative Performance Scale, ECOG, and Lung Cancer Symptom Scale

OBJECTIVES

Patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have a life expectancy of less than 1 year. Therefore, it is important to maximize their quality of life and find a tool that can more accurately predict survival.

MATERIALS

The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is used to predict survival for patients with advanced disease based on functional dimensions. The value of the PPS in ambulatory patients with cancer has not been examined to date. The Lung Cancer Symptom Scale (LCSS) measures six major symptoms and their effect on symptomatic distress and activity. We evaluated 62 patients with stage III or IV NSCLC and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Scale Score ≥1 at baseline in a thoracic oncology clinic. In all, 62 patients had LCSS and PPS evaluated at baseline and 54 patients had 4-week follow-up using LCSS, PPS, and ECOG.

RESULTS

Fifty-four patients completed baseline and follow-up. Mean age was 63.7 years. Sixty-three percent were receiving chemotherapy at evaluation. Seventeen patients died. Mean baseline measures were LCSS 6.18 (1-14); PPS 66.6 (40-90); and ECOG 1.82 (1-4). Censored survival times were calculated from enrollment of the first patient for 380 days. A proportional hazardous model was computed for survival status. Hazard ratios for death were 1.25 (P = .013) for LCSS, 2.12 (P = .027) for ECOG, and 1.02 for PPS (P = .49).

CONCLUSIONS

The LCSS predicted prognosis best in this study. The PPS did not accurately predict prognosis in our patient population.

The prevalence of cardiopulmonary symptoms among Chinese older adults in the Greater Chicago area

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms influence health and well-being among older adults. However, minority aging populations are often underrepresented in most studies on cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms. This study aims to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms among U.S. Chinese older adults.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the Population Study of Chinese Elderly study, a population-based survey of U.S. Chinese older adults in the Greater Chicago area. Guided by a community-based participatory research approach, a total of 3,159 Chinese older adults aged 60 and above were surveyed. Clinical Review of Systems was used to assess participants' perceptions of their cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular symptoms (31.6%) and pulmonary symptoms (42.2%) were commonly experienced by U.S. Chinese older adults. Symptoms such as cough (27.4%), sputum production (22.7%), chest pain or discomfort (16.3%), shortness of breath at rest (15.1%), and shortness of breath with activity (12.9%) were commonly reported. Older age, lower income, fewer years residing in the community, poorer self-perceived health status and quality of life, and worsened health over the last year were associated with report of any cardiovascular or pulmonary symptom.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms are common among Chinese older adults in the U.S. Future longitudinal research is needed to examine changes in Chinese older adults' burden of cardiopulmonary symptoms and their health and well-being.

The median informs the message: accuracy of individualized scenarios for survival time based on oncologists' estimates

PURPOSE

To determine the accuracy and usefulness of oncologists' estimates of survival time in individual patients with advanced cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Twenty-one oncologists estimated the "median survival of a group of identical patients" for each of 114 patients with advanced cancer. Accuracy was defined by the proportions of patients with an observed survival time bounded by prespecified multiples of their estimated survival time. We expected 50% to live longer (or shorter) than their oncologist's estimate (calibration), 50% to live from half to double their estimate (typical scenario), 5% to 10% to live ≤ one quarter of their estimate (worst-case scenario), and 5% to 10% to live three or more times their estimate (best-case scenario). Estimates within 0.67 to 1.33 times observed survival were deemed precise. Discriminative value was assessed with Harrell's C-statistic and prognostic significance with proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Median survival time was 11 months. Oncologists' estimates were relatively well-calibrated (61% shorter than observed), imprecise (29% from 0.67 to 1.33 times observed), and moderately discriminative (Harrell C-statistic 0.63; P = .001). The proportion of patients with an observed survival half to double their oncologist's estimate was 63%, ≤ one quarter of their oncologist's estimate was 6%, and three or more times their oncologist's estimate was 14%. Independent predictors of observed survival were oncologist's estimate (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.92; P = .004), dry mouth (HR = 5.1; P < .0001), alkaline phosphatase more than 101 U/L (HR = 2.8; P = .0002), Karnofsky performance status ≤ 70 (HR = 2.3; P = .007), prostate primary (HR = 0.23; P = .002), and steroid use (HR = 2.4; P = .02).

CONCLUSION

Oncologists' estimates of survival time were relatively well-calibrated, moderately discriminative, independently associated with observed survival, and a reasonable basis for estimating worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival.

The Understanding of Terminal Cancer and Its Relationship with Attitudes toward End-of-Life Care Issues

BACKGROUND

Although terminal cancer is a widely used term, its meaning varies, which may lead to different attitudes toward end-of-life issues. The study was conducted to investigate differences in the understanding of terminal cancer and determine the relationship between this understanding and attitudes toward end-of-life issues.

METHODS

A questionnaire survey was performed between 2008 and 2009. A total of 1242 cancer patients, 1289 family caregivers, 303 oncologists from 17 hospitals, and 1006 participants from the general population responded.

RESULTS

A "6-month life expectancy" was the most common understanding of terminal cancer (45.6%), followed by "treatment refractoriness" (21.1%), "metastatic/recurrent disease" (19.4%), "survival of a few days/weeks" (11.4%), and "locally advanced disease" (2.5%). The combined proportion of "treatment refractoriness" and "6-month life expectancy" differed significantly between oncologists and the other groups combined (76.0% v. 65.9%, P = 0.0003). Multivariate analyses showed that patients and caregivers who understood terminal cancer as "survival of a few days/weeks" showed more negative attitudes toward disclosure of terminal status compared with participants who chose "treatment refractoriness" (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.79 for patients; aOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.18-0.63 for caregivers). Caregivers who understood terminal cancer as "locally advanced" or "metastatic/recurrent disease" showed a significantly lower percentage of agreement with withdrawal of futile life-sustaining treatment compared with those who chose "treatment refractoriness" (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.07-0.54 for locally advanced; aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.21-0.72 for metastatic/recurrent).

CONCLUSIONS

The understanding of terminal cancer varied among the 4 participant groups. It was associated with different preferences regarding end-of-life issues. Standardization of these terms is needed to better understand end-of-life care.

Clarifying delirium management: practical, evidenced-based, expert recommendations for clinical practice

Delirium is highly prevalent in those with serious or advanced medical illnesses. It is associated with many adverse consequences, including significant patient, family, and health care provider distress. This article suggests a novel approach to delirium assessment and management and provides useful, practical guidance for clinicians based on a complete review of the existing literature and the expert clinical opinion of the authors and their colleagues, derived from over a decade of collective bedside experience. Comprehensive assessment includes careful description of observed symptoms, signs, and behaviors; and an understanding of the patient's situation, including primary diagnosis, associated comorbidities, functional status, and prognosis. The importance of incorporating goals of care for the patient and family is discussed. The concepts of potential reversibility versus irreversible delirium and delirium subtype are proffered, with a description of how diagnostic and management strategies follow from these concepts. Pharmacological interventions that provide rapid, effective, and safe relief are presented. Employing both pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, including patient and family education, improves symptoms and relieves patient and family distress, whether the delirium is reversible or irreversible, hyperactive or hypoactive. All interventions can be provided in any setting of care, including patients' homes.

Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission

OBJECTIVE

Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

METHODS

a convenient sample of 430 acutely ill medical patients (mean age 67.9 ± 16.6 years) was followed up for 1 year after their last admission to hospital.

RESULTS

Seventy-four (16.3%) patients died within a year-all but seven had a SCS ≥5 and 40% of those with an MMI ≥50% died. Only six of variables were found by logistic regression to be independent predictors of mortality (i.e. age, MMI, SCS, a discharge diagnosis of cancer, hemoglobin <11 gm% and prior illness that required the patient to spend >50% of daytime in bed). The SCS and MMI plus age were comparable predictors of 1-year mortality: SCS ≥12 predicted 1-year mortality with the highest odds (16.1, chi square 79.09, p < 0.0001) and a score of age plus MMI >104 had an odds ratio of 9.4 (chi square 73.50, p < 0.0001), identified 69% of deaths, and 43% of the 119 patients who exceeded this score were dead within a year.

CONCLUSION

SCS and ECG-DM plus age are clinically useful for long-term prognostication. ECG-DM is inexpensive, only takes a few seconds to perform and requires no skill to interpret.

Are physicians ethically obligated to address hospice as an alternative to "usual" treatment of advancing end-stage disease?

Hospice care is ideally suited to meet the psychosocial and spiritual needs of dying patients, providing the opportunity to settle financial, property, and inheritance issues; to mend lacerations in important lifetime relationships, including forgiving and asking forgiveness; and to assure a degree of autonomous control over the environment and the social and spiritual processes that attend one's death. Physicians are not only imprecise in prognosticating a patient's time to die, they tend to be over-optimistic in their predictions. A "no" answer to the question, "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next year?" is a reasonable starting-point for discussing hospice care as a potential treatment plan, now or in the future. Physicians have a duty to present palliative care in hospice as an alternative to the recurrent hospital interventions that are typical in the last six to 12 months of life tor patients who are failing and have declining prospects for one-year survival.

Association between symptoms and their severity with survival time in hospitalized patients with far advanced cancer

OBJECTIVE

To assess the significance of symptoms and their severity for predicting survival of hospitalized patients with far advanced cancer.

METHODS

Two hundred fifty-six patients with far advanced cancer at the Cancer Center of Tongji Hospital, China were assessed by the Chinese version of the M.D. Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI-C). A Cox regression model was used to determine symptoms that could predict survival time. The log-rank test was used to compare the survival of patients accompanied by significant symptoms at different intensities.

RESULTS

Median survival was 49 days. Fatigue was the most common and severe symptom, followed by lack of appetite, disturbed sleep, and pain. Multivariate analysis showed that fatigue, shortness of breath, lack of appetite, and feeling sad were independent prognostic factors for survival time (p  < 0.05), with a hazard ratio of dying of 1.39, 1.13, 1.33, and 1.16, respectively. The survival time for patients with different intensities of the four symptoms showed significant differences (p  <  0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Fatigue, lack of appetite, feeling sad, and shortness of breath could be predictive factors for survival time of hospitalized patients with far advanced cancer. The more severe these symptoms are, the shorter will be survival time.

Prognostic Factors in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Use of the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment in Survival Prediction

Purpose

To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer.

Patients and Methods

A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0.

Results

A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P < .05). A model including only patients separated by disease site and PS with high c-statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS.

Conclusion

We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

Evaluating correlation and interrater reliability for four performance scales in the palliative care setting

Performance scales are used by clinicians to objectively represent a patient's level of function and have been shown to be important predictors of response to therapy and survival. Four different scales are commonly used in the palliative care setting, two of which were specifically developed to more accurately represent this population. It remains unclear which scale is best suited for this setting. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlations among the four scales and concurrently compare interrater reliability for each. Patients were each assessed at the same point in time by three different health care professionals, and all four scales were used to rate each patient. Spearman correlation coefficient values and both weighted and unweighted kappa values were calculated to determine correlation and interrater reliability. The results confirmed highly significant linear correlation among and between all four scales. Whether using a reliability measure that incorporates the concept of "partial credit" for "near misses" or a measure reflecting exact rater agreement, no one scale emerged as having a significantly higher likelihood of agreement among raters. We propose that what may be more important than clinical experience or rater profession is the level of training an individual health care professional rater receives on the administration of any particular performance scale. In addition, given that low levels of exact rater agreement could have substantial clinical implications for patients, we suggest that this parameter be considered in the design of future comparative studies.

Survival of women with cancer in palliative care: use of the palliative prognostic score in a population of Brazilian women

The objective of this study was to estimate the survival time of patients referred to the palliative care unit of the National Cancer Institute of Brazil (INCA), using the Palliative Prognostic (PaP) score, and thereby evaluate this tool in a location and population different from that in which the instrument was originally developed. In this prospective study, the instrument, after translation and adaptation to Brazilian Portuguese, was applied to 250 women consecutively referred to the palliative care unit of INCA, who had been followed up as outpatients between June 2005 and August 2006. The PaP score subdivided a heterogeneous population into three homogeneous risk groups with respect to survival time, and the differences between groups were statistically significant. The median overall survival time, calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, for the three groups was 142 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 118-172) for Group A, 39 days (95% CI: 28-52) for Group B, and nine days (95% CI: 1-24) for Group C. The percentage survival at 30 days for the three groups was 91.4%, 57.1%, and 0%, respectively. The longer survival time found in the first group in this study would appear to reflect the referral of patients in better clinical condition for outpatient follow-up in this institute. These data suggest that the PaP score is a consistent and easily applied instrument that allows more accurate prognostication in advanced cancer patients with no possibility of cure, irrespective of the geographical location.

Using Evidence-Based Instruments to Document Eligibility and Improve Quality of Life of Hospice Patients

Hospices have been implementing various approaches to cope with the increased regulatory scrutiny in the past 3 years, prompted by concern about costs and outcomes. Medicare, through its fiscal intermediaries, has issued increasingly more restrictive local coverage determination guidelines for initial and ongoing qualifying criteria. The article examines how one hospice, United Hospice of Rockland, Inc. (UHR, New City, NY), designed multifaceted program to simultaneously improve regulatory compliance and improve quality of life. This article presents how the six scales (i.e., pain-verbal and non-verbal, breathing, functional decline-PPS and Fast, and anxiety) were developed and implemented, and also presents the preliminary evaluation of successful results.

Evaluation and comparison of two prognostic scores and the physicians’ estimate of survival in terminally ill patients

Background

Method

Results

Discussion

Understanding why patients die after gastrostomy tube insertion: a retrospective analysis of mortality

OBJECTIVES

To understand the causes of mortality of inpatients receiving a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) tube compared with a survival curve predicted from a model proposed by Levine et al (2007).

DESIGN

A retrospective study of patients receiving a PEG over an 18-month period.

SETTING

Royal United Hospital Bath, a district general hospital in the southwest of England.

PATIENTS

Fifty-five cases, with 44 found eligible for inclusion.

INTERVENTIONS

A Levine score was calculated for this cohort. A survival curve after PEG was produced and compared with the Kaplan-Meier curve predicted by the Levine model.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality over a period of 1 year.

RESULTS

The mortality at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was 16%, 20%, 25%, and 28%, respectively. This matched the predicted death rate from the Levine model closely (Pearson's rank correlation coefficient = 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

The authors found that the mortality of patients receiving a PEG followed that predicted for a similar cohort of patients without PEGs in the Levine model. This suggests that the deaths observed were due to underlying comorbidities, can provide a baseline for mortality targets for PEG services, and is useful patient information regarding the risks and benefits of the procedure. The findings demonstrate that PEG does no harm and supports the accepted opinion that nutrition support is associated with a better outcome. Furthermore, they show that most deaths occur within the first month of placement and would support arguments for delaying placement until outcome from the underlying condition is more predictable.

Reversibility of delirium in terminally ill patients and predictors of mortality

In this study, factors related to reversibility and mortality in consecutive cases of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition) delirium [n = 121] occurring in palliative care patients were evaluated. Delirium was assessed with the revised Delirium Rating Scale (DRS-R98) and Cognitive Test for Delirium (CTD). Patients were followed until recovery from delirium or death. In all, 33 patients (27%) recovered from delirium before death. Mean time until death was 39.7 +/- 69.8 days in patients with reversible delirium [n = 33] versus 16.8 +/- 10.0 days in those with irreversible delirium [n = 88; P < 0.01]. DRS-R98 and CTD scores were higher in irreversible delirium (P < 0.001) with greater disturbances of sleep, language, long-term memory, attention, vigilance and visuospatial ability. Irreversible delirium was associated with greater disturbance of CTD attention and higher DRS-R98 visuospatial function. Survival time was predicted by CTD score (P < 0.001), age (P = 0.01) and organ failure (P = 0.01). Delirium was not necessarily a harbinger of imminent death. Less reversible delirium involved greater impairment of attention, vigilance and visuospatial function. Survival time is related to age, severity of cognitive impairment and evidence of organ failure.

Predicting survival in patients with advanced disease

Prognostication is an important clinical skill for all clinicians, particularly those clinicians working with patients with advanced cancer. However, doctors can be hesitant about prognosticating without a fundamental understanding of how to formulate a prognosis more accurately and how to communicate the information with honesty and compassion. Irrespective of the underlying type of malignancy, most patients with advanced cancer experience a prolonged period of gradual decline (months/years) before a short phase of accelerated decline in the last month or two. The main indicators of this final phase are poor performance status, weight loss, symptoms such as anorexia, breathlessness or confusion and abnormalities on laboratory parameters (e.g. high white cell count, lymphopaenia, hyopalbuminaemia, elevated lactate dehydrogenase or C-reactive protein). The clinical estimate of survival remains a powerful independent prognostic indicator, often enhanced by experience, but research has only begun to understand the different biases affecting clinicians' estimates. More recent research has shown probabilistic predictions to be more accurate than temporal predictions. Simple, reliable and valid prognostic tools have been developed in recent years that can be used readily at the bedside of terminally ill cancer patients. The greatest accuracy occurs with the use of a combination of subjective prognostic judgements and objective validated tools. Communicating survival predictions is an important part of cancer care and guidelines exist for improving delivery of such information. Important cultural differences may influence communication strategies and should be recognised in clinical encounters. More well-designed studies of prognosis and its impact on decision making are needed. The benefits and limitations of prognostication should be considered in many clinical decisions.

Associations between caregiver-perceived delirium in patients with cancer and generalized anxiety in their caregivers

BACKGROUND

Delirium, a common complication of advanced cancer, may put caregivers at risk for poor mental health outcomes. We looked for a relationship between caregiver-perceived delirium in a patient with advanced cancer and rates of caregiver psychiatric disorders.

METHODS

Using cross-sectional data from 200 caregivers of patients with cancer with a life expectancy of less than 6 months, we determined the frequency of caregiver-perceived delirium, which was defined as caregivers who reported witnessing the patient "confused, delirious" on the Stressful Caregiving Response to Experiences of Dying (SCARED) weekly or more often. We tested for associations between caregiver-reported delirium and presence of caregiver mental disorders, using the Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-IV to diagnose mental disorders and caregiver burden, as measured by the caregiver burden scale (CBS).

RESULTS

Of the 200 caregivers who completed the SCARED, 38 (19.0%) reported seeing the patient "confused, delirious" at least once per week in the month prior to study enrollment and 7 (3.5%) met criteria for generalized anxiety (GA). Caregivers of patients with caregiver-perceived delirium were 12 times more likely to have GA (odds ratio [OR] 12.12; p < 0.01). The relationship between caregiver-perceived delirium and caregiver GA persisted after adjusting for caregiver burden and exposure to other stressful patient experiences (OR = 9.99; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of an association between caregiver-perceived delirium and a caregiver mental health outcome. Further studies, using improved measures of delirium, are needed.

Symptoms and survival in patients with advanced disease

Predicting survival in patients with advanced disease is challenging for health care providers. Accurate survival estimation using symptom assessment may assist physicians and patients in determining treatment options. This report analyzes prospective studies in adult patients with a median/mean survival of 6 months or less and identifies symptoms that are associated with decreased survival. To be included in this analysis, a study needed to have at least one symptom associated with decreased survival in a univariate or multivariate analysis. Twenty-two studies were identified and 15 symptoms were associated with decreased survival. Anorexia, delirium, and dyspnea were associated with decreased survival in most studies. Delirium and anorexia (but not dyspnea) were associated with decreased survival in most studies that included patients with a median survival of 30 days or less. More research is needed to investigate any associations between symptom characteristics and survival in patients with advanced disease. Short assessment tools using symptoms identified in this report, with a focus on symptoms that were found in multiple studies, need to be developed to better predict survival and guide patient treatment.

A prognostic model for 1-year mortality in older adults after hospital discharge

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a prognostic index for 1-year mortality of hospitalized older adults using standard administrative data readily available after discharge.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The prognostic index was developed and validated retrospectively in 6382 older adults discharged from general medicine services at an urban teaching hospital over a 4-year period. Potential risk factors for 1-year mortality were obtained from administrative data and examined using logistic regression models. Each risk factor associated independently with mortality was assigned a weight based on the odds ratios, and risk scores were calculated for each patient by adding the points of each independent risk factor present. Patients in the development cohort were divided into quartiles of risk based on their final risk score. A similar analysis was performed on the validation cohort to confirm the original results.

RESULTS

Risk factors independently associated with 1-year mortality included: aged 70 to 74 years (1 point); aged 75 years and greater (2 points); length of stay at least 5 days (1 point); discharge to nursing home (1 point); metastatic cancer (2 points); and other comorbidities (congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, renal disease, hematologic or solid, nonmetastatic malignancy, and dementia, each 1 point). In the derivation cohort, 1-year mortality was 11% in the lowest-risk group (0 or 1 point) and 48% in the highest-risk group (4 or greater points). Similarly, in the validation cohort, 1-year mortality was 11% in the lowest risk group and 45% in the highest-risk group. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 for the derivation cohort and 0.68 for the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Reasonable prognostic information for 1-year mortality in older patients discharged from general medicine services can be derived from administrative data to identify high-risk groups of persons.

Delirium in Hospitalized Older Patients With Cancer

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES

To examine key aspects of delirium in a sample of hospitalized older patients with cancer.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from studies on acute confusion in hospitalized older adults.

SETTING

Tertiary teaching hospital in the southeastern United States.

SAMPLE

76 hospitalized older patients with cancer (mean age = 74.4 years) evenly divided by gender and ethnicity and with multiple cancer diagnoses.

METHODS

Data were collected during three studies of acute confusion in hospitalized older patients. Delirium was measured with the NEECHAM Confusion Scale on admission, daily during hospitalization, and at discharge. Patient characteristics and clinical risk markers were determined at admission.

MAIN RESEARCH VARIABLES

Prevalent and incident delirium, etiologic risk patterns, and patient characteristics.

FINDINGS

Delirium was noted in 43 (57%) patients; 29 (38%) were delirious on admission. Fourteen of 47 (30%) who were not delirious at admission became delirious during hospitalization. Delirium was present in 30 patients (39%) at discharge. Most delirious patients had evidence of multiple (mean = 2.3) etiologic patterns for delirium.

CONCLUSIONS

Delirium was common in this sample of hospitalized older patients with cancer. Patients with delirium were more severely ill, were more functionally impaired, and exhibited more etiologic patterns than nondelirious patients.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING

Nurses caring for older patients with cancer should perform systematic and ongoing assessments of cognitive behavioral performance to detect delirium early. The prevention and management of delirium hinge on the identification and treatment of the multiple risk factors and etiologic mechanisms that underlie delirium. The large number of patients discharged while still delirious has significant implications for posthospital care and recovery.

Prognostic factors in advanced cancer patients: evidence-based clinical recommendations--a study by the Steering Committee of the European Association for Palliative Care

PURPOSE

To offer evidence-based clinical recommendations concerning prognosis in advanced cancer patients.

METHODS

A Working Group of the Research Network of the European Association for Palliative Care identified clinically significant topics, reviewed the studies, and assigned the level of evidence. A formal meta-analysis was not feasible because of the heterogeneity of published studies and the lack of minimal standards in reporting results. A systematic electronic literature search within the main available medical literature databases was performed for each of the following four areas identified: clinical prediction of survival (CPS), biologic factors, clinical signs and symptoms and psychosocial variables, and prognostic scores. Only studies on patients with advanced cancer and survival < or = 90 days were included.

RESULTS

A total of 38 studies were evaluated. Level A evidence-based recommendations of prognostic correlation could be formulated for CPS (albeit with a series of limitations of which clinicians must be aware) and prognostic scores. Recommendations on the use of other prognostic factors, such as performance status, symptoms associated with cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome (weight loss, anorexia, dysphagia, and xerostomia), dyspnea, delirium, and some biologic factors (leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and C-reactive protein), reached level B.

CONCLUSION

Prognostication of life expectancy is a significant clinical commitment for clinicians involved in oncology and palliative care. More accurate prognostication is feasible and can be achieved by combining clinical experience and evidence from the literature. Using and communicating prognostic information should be part of a multidisciplinary palliative care approach.

Accuracy of survival prediction by palliative radiation oncologists

PURPOSE

To examine the accuracy of survival prediction by palliative radiation oncologists.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

After consultation of cancer patients with metastatic disease for referral of palliative radiotherapy, radiation oncologists estimated the survival of the patients. These were compared with the actual dates of death obtained from the Cancer Death Registry. The time to death from all causes was the outcome. The survival times were measured from the date of the first consultation at the palliative radiotherapy clinics.

RESULTS

Six radiation oncologists provided estimates for 739 patients. Of the 739 patients, 396 were men and 343 were women (median age, 69 years). The median survival of all patients was 15.9 weeks. The mean difference between the actual survival (AS) and the clinician predicted survival (i.e., actual survival minus clinician predicted survival) was -12.3 weeks (95% confidence interval, -15.0 to -9.5) for the entire population. The mean difference was -21.9 weeks when the actual survival was < or =12 weeks, -19.2 weeks when the AS was 13-26 weeks, -9.7 weeks when the AS was 27-52 weeks, and +23.0 weeks when the AS was >52 weeks.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the prediction of survival by radiation oncologists was inaccurate and tended to be overly optimistic.

Losing harmonic stability of arterial pulse in terminally ill patients

OBJECTIVE

To measure the coefficient of variation of the harmonic magnitude (HCV) of the radial arterial pulse before death of cancer patients.

METHODS

We non-invasively recorded the radical arterial pulse of 21 end-stage cancer patients, 31 healthy subjects, and 47 outpatient department (OPD) patients. During the 2-week study, eight cancer patients expired.

RESULTS

There were no considerable differences in diastolic or systolic blood pressure between cancer patients and other subjects; however, all six HCVs were significantly higher in the cancer patients (P<0.05). Within the cancer patient group, the first and second HCV were notably higher in the patients that expired (P<0.05), and the first to fourth HCVs were significantly increased on their last day (P<0.05). In the control healthy subjects and the OPD group, the HCVs were below 5 and 8%, respectively. In the cancer patients, the third to sixth HCVs were higher than 15%. On the last day of the cancer patients that expired, even the first and second HCVs were higher than 15%.

CONCLUSIONS

During the dying process, the traditional diastolic and systolic blood pressure did not show significant changes; however, all the harmonic components gradually lost their stability. The HCVs, which increased first for the high-frequency components and then the low-frequency components, could quantitatively reflect the severity of different stages of illness.

A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival in terminally ill cancer patients.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Library, Medline (1996-2000), Embase, Current Contents, and Cancerlit databases as well as hand searching.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if a physician's temporal clinical prediction of survival (CPS) and the actual survival (AS) for terminally ill cancer patients were available for statistical analysis. Study quality was assessed by using a critical appraisal tool produced by the local health authority.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Raw data were pooled and analysed with regression and other multivariate techniques.

RESULTS

17 published studies were identified; 12 met the inclusion criteria, and 8 were evaluable, providing 1563 individual prediction-survival dyads. CPS was generally overoptimistic (median CPS 42 days, median AS 29 days); it was correct to within one week in 25% of cases and overestimated survival by at least four weeks in 27%. The longer the CPS the greater the variability in AS. Although agreement between CPS and AS was poor (weighted kappa 0.36), the two were highly significantly associated after log transformation (Spearman rank correlation 0.60, P < 0.001). Consideration of performance status, symptoms, and use of steroids improved the accuracy of the CPS, although the additional value was small. Heterogeneity of the studies' results precluded a comprehensive meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although clinicians consistently overestimate survival, their predictions are highly correlated with actual survival; the predictions have discriminatory ability even if they are miscalibrated. Clinicians caring for patients with terminal cancer need to be aware of their tendency to overestimate survival, as it may affect patients' prospects for achieving a good death. Accurate prognostication models incorporating clinical prediction of survival are needed.