Mutational Biases Influence Parallel Adaptation

NeMu: a comprehensive pipeline for accurate reconstruction of neutral mutation spectra from evolutionary data

The recognized importance of mutational spectra in molecular evolution is yet to be fully exploited beyond human cancer studies and model organisms. The wealth of intraspecific polymorphism data in the GenBank repository, covering a broad spectrum of genes and species, presents an untapped opportunity for detailed mutational spectrum analysis. Existing methods fall short by ignoring intermediate substitutions on the inner branches of phylogenetic trees and lacking the capability for cross-species mutational comparisons. To address these challenges, we present the NeMu pipeline, available at https://nemu-pipeline.com, a tool grounded in phylogenetic principles designed to provide comprehensive and scalable analysis of mutational spectra. Utilizing extensive sequence data from numerous available genome projects, NeMu rapidly and accurately reconstructs the neutral mutational spectrum. This tool, facilitating the reconstruction of gene- and species-specific mutational spectra, contributes to a deeper understanding of evolutionary mechanisms across the broad spectrum of known species.

Mutation Rate and Effective Population Size of the Model Cooperative Bacterium Myxococcus xanthus

Intrinsic rates of genetic mutation have diverged greatly across taxa and exhibit statistical associations with several other parameters and features. These include effective population size (Ne), genome size, and gametic multicellularity, with the latter being associated with both increased mutation rates and decreased effective population sizes. However, data sufficient to test for possible relationships between microbial multicellularity and mutation rate (µ) are lacking. Here, we report estimates of two key population-genetic parameters, Ne and µ, for Myxococcus xanthus, a bacterial model organism for the study of aggregative multicellular development, predation, and social swarming. To estimate µ, we conducted an ∼400-day mutation accumulation experiment with 46 lineages subjected to regular single colony bottlenecks prior to clonal regrowth. Upon conclusion, we sequenced one clonal-isolate genome per lineage. Given collective evolution for 85,323 generations across all lines, we calculate a per base-pair mutation rate of ∼5.5 × 10-10 per site per generation, one of the highest mutation rates among free-living eubacteria. Given our estimate of µ, we derived Ne at ∼107 from neutral diversity at four-fold degenerate sites across two dozen M. xanthus natural isolates. This estimate is below average for eubacteria and strengthens an already clear negative correlation between µ and Ne in prokaryotes. The higher and lower than average mutation rate and Ne for M. xanthus, respectively, amplify the question of whether any features of its multicellular life cycle-such as group-size reduction during fruiting-body development-or its highly structured spatial distribution have significantly influenced how these parameters have evolved.

Accurate Detection of Convergent Mutations in Large Protein Alignments With ConDor

Evolutionary convergences are observed at all levels, from phenotype to DNA and protein sequences, and changes at these different levels tend to be correlated. Notably, convergent mutations can lead to convergent changes in phenotype, such as changes in metabolism, drug resistance, and other adaptations to changing environments. We propose a two-component approach to detect mutations subject to convergent evolution in protein alignments. The "Emergence" component selects mutations that emerge more often than expected, while the "Correlation" component selects mutations that correlate with the convergent phenotype under study. With regard to Emergence, a phylogeny deduced from the alignment is provided by the user and is used to simulate the evolution of each alignment position. These simulations allow us to estimate the expected number of mutations in a neutral model, which is compared to the observed number of mutations in the data studied. In Correlation, a comparative phylogenetic approach, is used to measure whether the presence of each of the observed mutations is correlated with the convergent phenotype. Each component can be used on its own, for example Emergence when no phenotype is available. Our method is implemented in a standalone workflow and a webserver, called ConDor. We evaluate the properties of ConDor using simulated data, and we apply it to three real datasets: sedge PEPC proteins, HIV reverse transcriptase, and fish rhodopsin. The results show that the two components of ConDor complement each other, with an overall accuracy that compares favorably to other available tools, especially on large datasets.

Mutation and evolution: Conceptual possibilities

Although random mutation is central to models of evolutionary change, a lack of clarity remains regarding the conceptual possibilities for thinking about the nature and role of mutation in evolution. We distinguish several claims at the intersection of mutation, evolution, and directionality and then characterize a previously unrecognized category: complex conditioned mutation. Empirical evidence in support of this category suggests that the historically famous fluctuation test should be revisited, and new experiments should be undertaken with emerging experimental techniques to facilitate detecting mutation rates within specific loci at an ultra-high, individual base pair resolution.

Mutation and Selection Induce Correlations between Selection Coefficients and Mutation Rates

AbstractThe joint distribution of selection coefficients and mutation rates is a key determinant of the genetic architecture of molecular adaptation. Three different distributions are of immediate interest: (1) the "nominal" distribution of possible changes, prior to mutation or selection; (2) the "de novo" distribution of realized mutations; and (3) the "fixed" distribution of selectively established mutations. Here, we formally characterize the relationships between these joint distributions under the strong-selection/weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. The de novo distribution is enriched relative to the nominal distribution for the highest rate mutations, and the fixed distribution is further enriched for the most highly beneficial mutations. Whereas mutation rates and selection coefficients are often assumed to be uncorrelated, we show that even with no correlation in the nominal distribution, the resulting de novo and fixed distributions can have correlations with any combination of signs. Nonetheless, we suggest that natural systems with a finite number of beneficial mutations will frequently have the kind of nominal distribution that induces negative correlations in the fixed distribution. We apply our mathematical framework, along with population simulations, to explore joint distributions of selection coefficients and mutation rates from deep mutational scanning and cancer informatics. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of these joint distributions together with two additional joint distributions relevant to parallelism and the rate of adaptation.

Mutational hotspots lead to robust but suboptimal adaptive outcomes in certain environments

The observed mutational spectrum of adaptive outcomes can be constrained by many factors. For example, mutational biases can narrow the observed spectrum by increasing the rate of mutation at isolated sites in the genome. In contrast, complex environments can shift the observed spectrum by defining fitness consequences of mutational routes. We investigate the impact of different nutrient environments on the evolution of motility in Pseudomonas fluorescens Pf0-2x (an engineered non-motile derivative of Pf0-1) in the presence and absence of a strong mutational hotspot. Previous work has shown that this mutational hotspot can be built and broken via six silent mutations, which provide rapid access to a mutation that rescues swimming motility and confers the strongest swimming phenotype in specific environments. Here, we evolved a hotspot and non-hotspot variant strain of Pf0-2x for motility under nutrient-rich (LB) and nutrient-limiting (M9) environmental conditions. We observed the hotspot strain consistently evolved faster across all environmental conditions and its mutational spectrum was robust to environmental differences. However, the non-hotspot strain had a distinct mutational spectrum that changed depending on the nutrient environment. Interestingly, while alternative adaptive mutations in nutrient-rich environments were equal to, or less effective than, the hotspot mutation, the majority of these mutations in nutrient-limited conditions produced superior swimmers. Our competition experiments mirrored these findings, underscoring the role of environment in defining both the mutational spectrum and the associated phenotype strength. This indicates that while mutational hotspots working in concert with natural selection can speed up access to robust adaptive mutations (which can provide a competitive advantage in evolving populations), they can limit exploration of the mutational landscape, restricting access to potentially stronger phenotypes in specific environments.

Understanding natural selection and similarity: Convergent, parallel and repeated evolution

Parallel and convergent evolution offer some of the most compelling evidence for the significance of natural selection in evolution, as the emergence of similar adaptive solutions is unlikely to occur by random chance alone. However, these terms are often employed inconsistently, leading to misinterpretation and confusion, and recently proposed definitions have unintentionally diminished the emphasis on the evolution of similar adaptive solutions. Here, I examine various conceptual frameworks and definitions related to parallel and convergent evolution and propose a consolidated framework that enhances our comprehension of these evolutionary patterns. The primary aim of this framework is to harmonize the concepts of parallel and convergent evolution together with natural selection and the idea of similarity. Both concepts involve the evolution of similar adaptive solutions as a result of environmental challenges. The distinction lies in ancestral phenotypes. Parallel evolution takes place when the ancestral phenotypes (before selection) of the lineages are similar. Convergent evolution happens when the lineages have distinct ancestral phenotypes (before selection). Because an ancestral-based distinction will inevitably lead to cases where uncertainty in the distinction may arise, the framework includes a general term, repeated evolution, which can be used as a term applying to the evolution of similar phenotypes and genotypes as well as similar responses to environmental pressures. Based on the argument that genetic similarity may frequently arise without selection, the framework posits that the similarity of genetic sequences is not of great interest unless linked to the actions of natural selection or to the origins (mutation, standing genetic variation, gene flow) and locations of the similar sequences.

Shifts in Mutation Bias Promote Mutators by Altering the Distribution of Fitness Effects

AbstractRecent experimental evidence demonstrates that shifts in mutational biases-for example, increases in transversion frequency-can change the distribution of fitness effects of mutations (DFE). In particular, reducing or reversing a prevailing bias can increase the probability that a de novo mutation is beneficial. It has also been shown that mutator bacteria are more likely to emerge if the beneficial mutations they generate have a larger effect size than observed in the wild type. Here, we connect these two results, demonstrating that mutator strains that reduce or reverse a prevailing bias have a positively shifted DFE, which in turn can dramatically increase their emergence probability. Since changes in mutation rate and bias are often coupled through the gain and loss of DNA repair enzymes, our results predict that the invasion of mutator strains will be facilitated by shifts in mutation bias that offer improved access to previously undersampled beneficial mutations.

Revisiting the Role of Genetic Variation in Adaptation

AbstractEvolutionary biologists have thought about the role of genetic variation during adaptation for a very long time-before we understood the organization of the genetic code, the provenance of genetic variation, and how such variation influenced the phenotypes on which natural selection acts. Half a century after the discovery of the structure of DNA and the unraveling of the genetic code, we have a rich understanding of these problems and the means to both delve deeper and widen our perspective across organisms and natural populations. The 2022 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists highlighted examples of recent insights into the role of genetic variation in adaptive processes, which are compiled in this special section. The work was conducted in different parts of the world, included theoretical and empirical studies with diverse organisms, and addressed distinct aspects of how genetic variation influences adaptation. In our introductory article to the special section, we discuss some important recent insights about the generation and maintenance of genetic variation, its impacts on phenotype and fitness, its fate in natural populations, and its role in driving adaptation. By placing the special section articles in the broader context of recent developments, we hope that this overview will also serve as a useful introduction to the field.

Predicting evolutionary outcomes through the probability of accessing sequence variants

Natural selection can only operate on available genetic variation. Thus, determining the probability of accessing different sequence variants from a starting sequence can help predict evolutionary trajectories and outcomes. We define the concept of "variant accessibility" as the probability that a set of genotypes encoding a particular protein function will arise through mutations before subject to natural selection. This probability is shaped by the mutational biases of nucleotides and the structure of the genetic code. Using the influenza A virus as a model, we discuss how a more accessible but less fit variant can emerge as an adaptation rather than a more fit variant. We describe a genotype-accessibility landscape, complementary to the genotype-fitness landscape, that informs the likelihood of a starting sequence reaching different parts of genotype space. The proposed framework lays the foundation for predicting the emergence of adaptive genotypes in evolving systems such as viruses and tumors.

Shifts in mutation spectra enhance access to beneficial mutations

Biased mutation spectra are pervasive, with wide variation in the magnitude of mutational biases that influence genome evolution and adaptation. How do such diverse biases evolve? Our experiments show that changing the mutation spectrum allows populations to sample previously undersampled mutational space, including beneficial mutations. The resulting shift in the distribution of fitness effects is advantageous: Beneficial mutation supply and beneficial pleiotropy both increase, while deleterious load reduces. More broadly, simulations indicate that reducing or reversing the direction of a long-term bias is always selectively favored. Such changes in mutation bias can occur easily via altered function of DNA repair genes. A phylogenetic analysis shows that these genes are repeatedly gained and lost in bacterial lineages, leading to frequent bias shifts in opposite directions. Thus, shifts in mutation spectra may evolve under selection and can directly alter the outcome of adaptive evolution by facilitating access to beneficial mutations.

Interaction between mutation type and gene pleiotropy drives parallel evolution in the laboratory

What causes evolution to be repeatable is a fundamental question in evolutionary biology. Pleiotropy, i.e. the effect of an allele on multiple traits, is thought to enhance repeatability by constraining the number of available beneficial mutations. Additionally, pleiotropy may promote repeatability by allowing large fitness benefits of single mutations via adaptive combinations of phenotypic effects. Yet, this latter evolutionary potential may be reaped solely by specific types of mutations able to realize optimal combinations of phenotypic effects while avoiding the costs of pleiotropy. Here, we address the interaction of gene pleiotropy and mutation type on evolutionary repeatability in a meta-analysis of experimental evolution studies with Escherichia coli. We hypothesize that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are principally able to yield large fitness benefits by targeting highly pleiotropic genes, whereas indels and structural variants (SVs) provide smaller benefits and are restricted to genes with lower pleiotropy. By using gene connectivity as proxy for pleiotropy, we show that non-disruptive SNPs in highly pleiotropic genes yield the largest fitness benefits, since they contribute more to parallel evolution, especially in large populations, than inactivating SNPs, indels and SVs. Our findings underscore the importance of considering genetic architecture together with mutation type for understanding evolutionary repeatability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Mutation bias and the predictability of evolution

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Distribution of mutation rates challenges evolutionary predictability

Natural selection is commonly assumed to act on extensive standing genetic variation. Yet, accumulating evidence highlights the role of mutational processes creating this genetic variation: to become evolutionarily successful, adaptive mutants must not only reach fixation, but also emerge in the first place, i.e. have a high enough mutation rate. Here, we use numerical simulations to investigate how mutational biases impact our ability to observe rare mutational pathways in the laboratory and to predict outcomes in experimental evolution. We show that unevenness in the rates at which mutational pathways produce adaptive mutants means that most experimental studies lack power to directly observe the full range of adaptive mutations. Modelling mutation rates as a distribution, we show that a substantially larger target size ensures that a pathway mutates more commonly. Therefore, we predict that commonly mutated pathways are conserved between closely related species, but not rarely mutated pathways. This approach formalizes our proposal that most mutations have a lower mutation rate than the average mutation rate measured experimentally. We suggest that the extent of genetic variation is overestimated when based on the average mutation rate.

Genomic Legacies of Ancient Adaptation Illuminate GC-Content Evolution in Bacteria

Bacterial evolution is characterized by strong purifying selection as well as rapid adaptive evolution in changing environments. In this context, the genomic GC content (genomic GC) varies greatly but presents some level of phylogenetic stability, making it challenging to explain based on current hypotheses. To illuminate the evolutionary mechanisms of the genomic GC, we analyzed the base composition and functional inventory of 11,083 representative genomes. A phylogenetically constrained bimodal distribution of the genomic GC, which mainly originated from parallel divergences in the early evolution, was demonstrated. Such variation of the genomic GC can be well explained by DNA replication and repair (DRR), in which multiple pathways correlate with the genomic GC. Furthermore, the biased conservation of various stress-related genes, especially the DRR-related ones, implies distinct adaptive processes in the ancestral lineages of high- or low-GC clades which are likely induced by major environmental changes. Our findings support that the mutational biases resulting from these legacies of ancient adaptation have changed the course of adaptive evolution and generated great variation in the genomic GC. This highlights the importance of indirect effects of natural selection, which indicates a new model for bacterial evolution. IMPORTANCE GC content has been shown to be an important factor in microbial ecology and evolution, and the genomic GC of bacteria can be characterized by great intergenomic heterogeneity, high intragenomic homogeneity, and strong phylogenetic inertia, as well as being associated with the environment. Current hypotheses concerning direct selection or mutational biases cannot well explain these features simultaneously. Our findings of the genomic GC showing that ancient adaptations have transformed the DRR system and that the resulting mutational biases further contributed to a bimodal distribution of it offer a more reasonable scenario for the mechanism. This would imply that, when thinking about the evolution of life, diverse processes of adaptation exist, and combined effects of natural selection should be considered.

Mutualism-enhancing mutations dominate early adaptation in a two-species microbial community

Species interactions drive evolution while evolution shapes these interactions. The resulting eco-evolutionary dynamics and their repeatability depend on how adaptive mutations available to community members affect fitness and ecologically relevant traits. However, the diversity of adaptive mutations is not well characterized, and we do not know how this diversity is affected by the ecological milieu. Here we use barcode lineage tracking to address this question in a community of yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii that have a net commensal relationship that results from a balance between competitive and mutualistic interactions. We find that yeast has access to many adaptive mutations with diverse ecological consequences, in particular those that increase and reduce the yields of both species. The presence of the alga does not change which mutations are adaptive in yeast (that is, there is no fitness trade-off for yeast between growing alone or with alga), but rather shifts selection to favour yeast mutants that increase the yields of both species and make the mutualism stronger. Thus, in the presence of the alga, adaptative mutations contending for fixation in yeast are more likely to enhance the mutualism, even though cooperativity is not directly favoured by natural selection in our system. Our results demonstrate that ecological interactions not only alter the trajectory of evolution but also dictate its repeatability; in particular, weak mutualisms can repeatably evolve to become stronger.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Multivariate selection and the making and breaking of mutational pleiotropy

The role of mutations have been subject to many controversies since the formation of the Modern Synthesis of evolution in the early 1940ties. Geneticists in the early half of the twentieth century tended to view mutations as a limiting factor in evolutionary change. In contrast, natural selection was largely viewed as a “sieve” whose main role was to sort out the unfit but which could not create anything novel alone. This view gradually changed with the development of mathematical population genetics theory, increased appreciation of standing genetic variation and the discovery of more complex forms of selection, including balancing selection. Short-term evolutionary responses to selection are mainly influenced by standing genetic variation, and are predictable to some degree using information about the genetic variance–covariance matrix (G) and the strength and form of selection (e. g. the vector of selection gradients, β). However, predicting long-term evolution is more challenging, and requires information about the nature and supply of novel mutations, summarized by the mutational variance–covariance matrix (M). Recently, there has been increased attention to the role of mutations in general and M in particular. Some evolutionary biologists argue that evolution is largely mutation-driven and claim that mutation bias frequently results in mutation-biased adaptation. Strong similarities between G and M have also raised questions about the non-randomness of mutations. Moreover, novel mutations are typically not isotropic in their phenotypic effects and mutational pleiotropy is common. Here I discuss the evolutionary origin and consequences of mutational pleiotropy and how multivariate selection directly shapes G and indirectly M through changed epistatic relationships. I illustrate these ideas by reviewing recent literature and models about correlational selection, evolution of G and M, sexual selection and the fitness consequences of sexual antagonism.

Constraints on the evolution of toxin-resistant Na,K-ATPases have limited dependence on sequence divergence

A growing body of theoretical and experimental evidence suggests that intramolecular epistasis is a major determinant of rates and patterns of protein evolution and imposes a substantial constraint on the evolution of novel protein functions. Here, we examine the role of intramolecular epistasis in the recurrent evolution of resistance to cardiotonic steroids (CTS) across tetrapods, which occurs via specific amino acid substitutions to the α-subunit family of Na,K-ATPases (ATP1A). After identifying a series of recurrent substitutions at two key sites of ATP1A that are predicted to confer CTS resistance in diverse tetrapods, we then performed protein engineering experiments to test the functional consequences of introducing these substitutions onto divergent species backgrounds. In line with previous results, we find that substitutions at these sites can have substantial background-dependent effects on CTS resistance. Globally, however, these substitutions also have pleiotropic effects that are consistent with additive rather than background-dependent effects. Moreover, the magnitude of a substitution's effect on activity does not depend on the overall extent of ATP1A sequence divergence between species. Our results suggest that epistatic constraints on the evolution of CTS-resistant forms of Na,K-ATPase likely depend on a small number of sites, with little dependence on overall levels of protein divergence. We propose that dependence on a limited number sites may account for the observation of convergent CTS resistance substitutions observed among taxa with highly divergent Na,K-ATPases (See S1 Text for Spanish translation).

Constraints on the evolution of toxin-resistant Na,K-ATPases have limited dependence on sequence divergence

A growing body of theoretical and experimental evidence suggests that intramolecular epistasis is a major determinant of rates and patterns of protein evolution and imposes a substantial constraint on the evolution of novel protein functions. Here, we examine the role of intramolecular epistasis in the recurrent evolution of resistance to cardiotonic steroids (CTS) across tetrapods, which occurs via specific amino acid substitutions to the α-subunit family of Na,K-ATPases (ATP1A). After identifying a series of recurrent substitutions at two key sites of ATP1A that are predicted to confer CTS resistance in diverse tetrapods, we then performed protein engineering experiments to test the functional consequences of introducing these substitutions onto divergent species backgrounds. In line with previous results, we find that substitutions at these sites can have substantial background-dependent effects on CTS resistance. Globally, however, these substitutions also have pleiotropic effects that are consistent with additive rather than background-dependent effects. Moreover, the magnitude of a substitution's effect on activity does not depend on the overall extent of ATP1A sequence divergence between species. Our results suggest that epistatic constraints on the evolution of CTS-resistant forms of Na,K-ATPase likely depend on a small number of sites, with little dependence on overall levels of protein divergence. We propose that dependence on a limited number sites may account for the observation of convergent CTS resistance substitutions observed among taxa with highly divergent Na,K-ATPases (See S1 Text for Spanish translation).

Genetic basis of speciation and adaptation: from loci to causative mutations

Does evolution proceed in small steps or large leaps? How repeatable is evolution? How constrained is the evolutionary process? Answering these long-standing questions in evolutionary biology is indispensable for both understanding how extant biodiversity has evolved and predicting how organisms and ecosystems will respond to changing environments in the future. Understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic diversification and speciation in natural populations is key to properly answering these questions. The leap forward in genome sequencing technologies has made it increasingly easier to not only investigate the genetic architecture but also identify the variant sites underlying adaptation and speciation in natural populations. Furthermore, recent advances in genome editing technologies are making it possible to investigate the functions of each candidate gene in organisms from natural populations. In this article, we discuss how these recent technological advances enable the analysis of causative genes and mutations and how such analysis can help answer long-standing evolutionary biology questions.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genetic basis of adaptation and speciation: from loci to causative mutations’.

Population size mediates the contribution of high-rate and large-benefit mutations to parallel evolution

Mutations with large fitness benefits and mutations occurring at high rates may both cause parallel evolution, but their contribution is predicted to depend on population size. Moreover, high-rate and large-benefit mutations may have different long-term adaptive consequences. We show that small and 100-fold larger bacterial populations evolve resistance to a β-lactam antibiotic by using similar numbers, but different types of mutations. Small populations frequently substitute similar high-rate structural variants and loss-of-function point mutations, including the deletion of a low-activity β-lactamase, and evolve modest resistance levels. Large populations more often use low-rate, large-benefit point mutations affecting the same targets, including mutations activating the β-lactamase and other gain-of-function mutations, leading to much higher resistance levels. Our results demonstrate the separation by clonal interference of mutation classes with divergent adaptive consequences, causing a shift from high-rate to large-benefit mutations with increases in population size.

Exploring Genomic Variations in Nematode-Resistant Mutant Rice Lines

Rice (Oryza sativa) production is seriously affected by the root-knot nematode Meloidogyne graminicola, which has emerged as a menace in upland and irrigated rice cultivation systems. Previously, activation tagging in rice was utilized to identify candidate gene(s) conferring resistance against M. graminicola. T-DNA insertional mutants were developed in a rice landrace (acc. JBT 36/14), and four mutant lines showed nematode resistance. Whole-genome sequencing of JBT 36/14 was done along with the four nematode resistance mutant lines to identify the structural genetic variations that might be contributing to M. graminicola resistance. Sequencing on Illumina NovaSeq 6000 platform identified 482,234 genetic variations in JBT 36/14 including 448,989 SNPs and 33,245 InDels compared to reference indica genome. In addition, 293,238-553,648 unique SNPs and 32,395-65,572 unique InDels were found in the four mutant lines compared to their JBT 36/14 background, of which 93,224 SNPs and 8,170 InDels were common between all the mutant lines. Functional annotation of genes containing these structural variations showed that the majority of them were involved in metabolism and growth. Trait analysis revealed that most of these genes were involved in morphological traits, physiological traits and stress resistance. Additionally, several families of transcription factors, such as FAR1, bHLH, and NAC, and putative susceptibility (S) genes, showed the presence of SNPs and InDels. Our results indicate that subject to further genetic validations, these structural genetic variations may be involved in conferring nematode resistance to the rice mutant lines.

Molecular diversity of exotic durian (Durio spp.) germplasm: a case study of Kalimantan, Indonesia

Background

Durian of Indonesia, specifically Durio zibethinus, is a potential agricultural commodity for domestic and international markets. However, its quality is still less competitive or significantly lower to fulfill the export market, compared to a similar one from other countries. This study aimed to determine and analyze the genetic diversity and relationship of the exotic durian (Durio spp.) germplasm originally from Kalimantan, Indonesia, using the rbcL marker.

Results

Based on this marker, the durian germplasm has a low genetic diversity (π%=0.24). It may strongly correspond with the variability sites or mutation present in the region. In this case, the rbcL region of the durian germplasm has generated 23 variable sites with a transition/transversion (Ti/Tv) bias value of 1.00. However, following the phylogenetic and principal component analyses, this germplasm is separated into four main clades and six groups, respectively. In this case, D. zibethinus was very closely related to D. exleyanus. Meanwhile, D. lowianus and D. excelsus were the farthest. In further analysis, 29 durians were very closely related, and the farthest was shown by Durian Burung (D. acutifolius) and Kalih Haliyang (D. kutejensis) as well as Pampaken Burung Kecil (D. kutejensis) and Durian Burung (D. acutifolius) with a divergence coefficient of 0.011. The Pearson correlation analysis confirms that 20 pairs of individual durians have a strong relation, shown by, e.g., Maharawin Hamak and Durian Burung as well as Mantuala Batu Hayam and Durian Burung Besar.

Conclusion

While the durian has a low genetic diversity, the phylogenetic analyses revealed that this germplasm originally from Kalimantan, Indonesia, shows unique relationships. These findings may provide a beneficial task in supporting the durian genetic conservation and breeding practices in the future, locally and globally.

Mutation bias shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions

How do mutational biases influence the process of adaptation? A common assumption is that selection alone determines the course of adaptation from abundant preexisting variation. Yet, theoretical work shows broad conditions under which the mutation rate to a given type of variant strongly influences its probability of contributing to adaptation. Here we introduce a statistical approach to analyzing how mutation shapes protein sequence adaptation. Using large datasets from three different species, we show that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the types of changes fixed in adaptation. We also show via computer simulations that a variety of factors can influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions reflects the spectrum of variants introduced by mutation.

Evolutionary adaptation often occurs by the fixation of beneficial mutations. This mode of adaptation can be characterized quantitatively by a spectrum of adaptive substitutions, i.e., a distribution for types of changes fixed in adaptation. Recent work establishes that the changes involved in adaptation reflect common types of mutations, raising the question of how strongly the mutation spectrum shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions. We address this question with a codon-based model for the spectrum of adaptive amino acid substitutions, applied to three large datasets covering thousands of amino acid changes identified in natural and experimental adaptation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using species-specific mutation spectra based on prior knowledge, we find that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the spectrum of adaptive substitutions in all three species. Indeed, we find that by inferring the mutation rates that best explain the spectrum of adaptive substitutions, we can accurately recover the species-specific mutation spectra. However, we also find that the predictive power of the model differs substantially between the three species. To better understand these differences, we use population simulations to explore the factors that influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions mirrors the mutation spectrum. The results show that the influence of the mutation spectrum decreases with increasing mutational supply (Nμ) and that predictive power is strongly affected by the number and diversity of beneficial mutations.

Phenotype Bias Determines How Natural RNA Structures Occupy the Morphospace of All Possible Shapes

Morphospaces-representations of phenotypic characteristics-are often populated unevenly, leaving large parts unoccupied. Such patterns are typically ascribed to contingency, or else to natural selection disfavoring certain parts of the morphospace. The extent to which developmental bias, the tendency of certain phenotypes to preferentially appear as potential variation, also explains these patterns is hotly debated. Here we demonstrate quantitatively that developmental bias is the primary explanation for the occupation of the morphospace of RNA secondary structure (SS) shapes. Upon random mutations, some RNA SS shapes (the frequent ones) are much more likely to appear than others. By using the RNAshapes method to define coarse-grained SS classes, we can directly compare the frequencies that noncoding RNA SS shapes appear in the RNAcentral database to frequencies obtained upon a random sampling of sequences. We show that: 1) only the most frequent structures appear in nature; the vast majority of possible structures in the morphospace have not yet been explored; 2) remarkably small numbers of random sequences are needed to produce all the RNA SS shapes found in nature so far; and 3) perhaps most surprisingly, the natural frequencies are accurately predicted, over several orders of magnitude in variation, by the likelihood that structures appear upon a uniform random sampling of sequences. The ultimate cause of these patterns is not natural selection, but rather a strong phenotype bias in the RNA genotype-phenotype map, a type of developmental bias or "findability constraint," which limits evolutionary dynamics to a hugely reduced subset of structures that are easy to "find."

Hidden role of mutations in the evolutionary process

Mutations not only alter allele frequencies in a genetic pool but may also determine the fate of an evolutionary process. Here we study which allele fixes in a one-step, one-way model including the wild type and two adaptive mutations. We study the effect of the four basic evolutionary mechanisms-genetic drift, natural selection, mutation, and gene flow-on mutant fixation and its kinetics. Determining which allele is more likely to fix is not simply a question of comparing fitnesses and mutation rates. For instance, if the allele of interest is less fit than the other, then not only must it have a greater mutation rate, but also its mutation rate must exceed a specific threshold for it to prevail. We find exact expressions for such conditions. Our conclusions are based on the mathematical description of two extreme but important regimes, as well as on simulations.

Differences in evolutionary accessibility determine which equally effective regulatory motif evolves to generate pulses

Transcriptional regulatory networks (TRNs) are enriched for certain "motifs." Motif usage is commonly interpreted in adaptationist terms, i.e., that the optimal motif evolves. But certain motifs can also evolve more easily than others. Here, we computationally evolved TRNs to produce a pulse of an effector protein. Two well-known motifs, type 1 incoherent feed-forward loops (I1FFLs) and negative feedback loops (NFBLs), evolved as the primary solutions. The relative rates at which these two motifs evolve depend on selection conditions, but under all conditions, either motif achieves similar performance. I1FFLs generally evolve more often than NFBLs. Selection for a tall pulse favors NFBLs, while selection for a fast response favors I1FFLs. I1FFLs are more evolutionarily accessible early on, before the effector protein evolves high expression; when NFBLs subsequently evolve, they tend to do so from a conjugated I1FFL-NFBL genotype. In the empirical S. cerevisiae TRN, output genes of NFBLs had higher expression levels than those of I1FFLs. These results suggest that evolutionary accessibility, and not relative functionality, shapes which motifs evolve in TRNs, and does so as a function of the expression levels of particular genes.

Mutation rate dynamics reflect ecological change in an emerging zoonotic pathogen

Mutation rates vary both within and between bacterial species, and understanding what drives this variation is essential for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of bacterial populations. In this study, we investigate two factors that are predicted to influence the mutation rate: ecology and genome size. We conducted mutation accumulation experiments on eight strains of the emerging zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus suis. Natural variation within this species allows us to compare tonsil carriage and invasive disease isolates, from both more and less pathogenic populations, with a wide range of genome sizes. We find that invasive disease isolates have repeatedly evolved mutation rates that are higher than those of closely related carriage isolates, regardless of variation in genome size. Independent of this variation in overall rate, we also observe a stronger bias towards G/C to A/T mutations in isolates from more pathogenic populations, whose genomes tend to be smaller and more AT-rich. Our results suggest that ecology is a stronger correlate of mutation rate than genome size over these timescales, and that transitions to invasive disease are consistently accompanied by rapid increases in mutation rate. These results shed light on the impact that ecology can have on the adaptive potential of bacterial pathogens.

Highly Replicated Evolution of Parapatric Ecotypes

Parallel evolution of ecotypes occurs when selection independently drives the evolution of similar traits across similar environments. The multiple origins of ecotypes are often inferred based on a phylogeny that clusters populations according to geographic location and not by the environment they occupy. However, the use of phylogenies to infer parallel evolution in closely related populations is problematic because gene flow and incomplete lineage sorting can uncouple the genetic structure at neutral markers from the colonization history of populations. Here, we demonstrate multiple origins within ecotypes of an Australian wildflower, Senecio lautus. We observed strong genetic structure as well as phylogenetic clustering by geography and show that this is unlikely due to gene flow between parapatric ecotypes, which was surprisingly low. We further confirm this analytically by demonstrating that phylogenetic distortion due to gene flow often requires higher levels of migration than those observed in S. lautus. Our results imply that selection can repeatedly create similar phenotypes despite the perceived homogenizing effects of gene flow.

A mutational hotspot that determines highly repeatable evolution can be built and broken by silent genetic changes

Mutational hotspots can determine evolutionary outcomes and make evolution repeatable. Hotspots are products of multiple evolutionary forces including mutation rate heterogeneity, but this variable is often hard to identify. In this work, we reveal that a near-deterministic genetic hotspot can be built and broken by a handful of silent mutations. We observe this when studying homologous immotile variants of the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens, AR2 and Pf0-2x. AR2 resurrects motility through highly repeatable de novo mutation of the same nucleotide in >95% lines in minimal media (ntrB A289C). Pf0-2x, however, evolves via a number of mutations meaning the two strains diverge significantly during adaptation. We determine that this evolutionary disparity is owed to just 6 synonymous variations within the ntrB locus, which we demonstrate by swapping the sites and observing that we are able to both break (>95% to 0%) and build (0% to 80%) a deterministic mutational hotspot. Our work reveals a key role for silent genetic variation in determining adaptive outcomes.

Meiosis and beyond - understanding the mechanistic and evolutionary processes shaping the germline genome

The separation of germ cell populations from the soma is part of the evolutionary transition to multicellularity. Only genetic information present in the germ cells will be inherited by future generations, and any molecular processes affecting the germline genome are therefore likely to be passed on. Despite its prevalence across taxonomic kingdoms, we are only starting to understand details of the underlying micro-evolutionary processes occurring at the germline genome level. These include segregation, recombination, mutation and selection and can occur at any stage during germline differentiation and mitotic germline proliferation to meiosis and post-meiotic gamete maturation. Selection acting on germ cells at any stage from the diploid germ cell to the haploid gametes may cause significant deviations from Mendelian inheritance and may be more widespread than previously assumed. The mechanisms that affect and potentially alter the genomic sequence and allele frequencies in the germline are pivotal to our understanding of heritability. With the rise of new sequencing technologies, we are now able to address some of these unanswered questions. In this review, we comment on the most recent developments in this field and identify current gaps in our knowledge.

From genotypes to organisms: State-of-the-art and perspectives of a cornerstone in evolutionary dynamics

Understanding how genotypes map onto phenotypes, fitness, and eventually organisms is arguably the next major missing piece in a fully predictive theory of evolution. We refer to this generally as the problem of the genotype-phenotype map. Though we are still far from achieving a complete picture of these relationships, our current understanding of simpler questions, such as the structure induced in the space of genotypes by sequences mapped to molecular structures, has revealed important facts that deeply affect the dynamical description of evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence supporting the fundamental relevance of features such as phenotypic bias is mounting as well, while the synthesis of conceptual and experimental progress leads to questioning current assumptions on the nature of evolutionary dynamics-cancer progression models or synthetic biology approaches being notable examples. This work delves with a critical and constructive attitude into our current knowledge of how genotypes map onto molecular phenotypes and organismal functions, and discusses theoretical and empirical avenues to broaden and improve this comprehension. As a final goal, this community should aim at deriving an updated picture of evolutionary processes soundly relying on the structural properties of genotype spaces, as revealed by modern techniques of molecular and functional analysis.

Multi-scale Predictions of Drug Resistance Epidemiology Identify Design Principles for Rational Drug Design

Rationally designing drugs that last longer in the face of biological evolution is a critical objective of drug discovery. However, this goal is thwarted by the diversity and stochasticity of evolutionary trajectories that drive uncertainty in the clinic. Although biophysical models can qualitatively predict whether a mutation causes resistance, they cannot quantitatively predict the relative abundance of resistance mutations in patient populations. We present stochastic, first-principle models that are parameterized on a large in vitro dataset and that accurately predict the epidemiological abundance of resistance mutations across multiple leukemia clinical trials. The ability to forecast resistance variants requires an understanding of their underlying mutation biases. Beyond leukemia, a meta-analysis across prostate cancer, breast cancer, and gastrointestinal stromal tumors suggests that resistance evolution in the adjuvant setting is influenced by mutational bias. Our analysis establishes a principle for rational drug design: when evolution favors the most probable mutant, so should drug design.

Drug resistance is often addressed through next-generation drug design, but evolutionary diversity complicates these efforts. Here, Leighow et al. demonstrate that multi-scale models can quantitatively predict mutant frequency. We find that when heterogeneity is limited, analysis requires an understanding of substitution likelihood. We show that these models can inform evolutionarily optimized drug design.

Mutation bias can shape adaptation in large asexual populations experiencing clonal interference

The extended evolutionary synthesis invokes a role for development in shaping adaptive evolution, which in population genetics terms corresponds to mutation-biased adaptation. Critics have claimed that clonal interference makes mutation-biased adaptation rare. We consider the behaviour of two simultaneously adapting traits, one with larger mutation rate U, the other with larger selection coefficient s, using asexual travelling wave models. We find that adaptation is dominated by whichever trait has the faster rate of adaptation v in isolation, with the other trait subject to evolutionary stalling. Reviewing empirical claims for mutation-biased adaptation, we find that not all occur in the 'origin-fixation' regime of population genetics where v is only twice as sensitive to s as to U. In some cases, differences in U are at least ten to twelve times larger than differences in s, as needed to cause mutation-biased adaptation even in the 'multiple mutations' regime. Surprisingly, when U > s in the 'diffusive-mutation' regime, the required sensitivity ratio is also only two, despite pervasive clonal interference. Given two traits with identical v, the benefit of having higher s is surprisingly small, occurring largely when one trait is at the boundary between the origin-fixation and multiple mutations regimes.

Unmatched Level of Molecular Convergence among Deeply Divergent Complex Multicellular Fungi

Convergent evolution is pervasive in nature, but it is poorly understood how various constraints and natural selection limit the diversity of evolvable phenotypes. Here, we analyze the transcriptome across fruiting body development to understand the independent evolution of complex multicellularity in the two largest clades of fungi-the Agarico- and Pezizomycotina. Despite >650 My of divergence between these clades, we find that very similar sets of genes have convergently been co-opted for complex multicellularity, followed by expansions of their gene families by duplications. Over 82% of shared multicellularity-related gene families were expanding in both clades, indicating a high prevalence of convergence also at the gene family level. This convergence is coupled with a rich inferred repertoire of multicellularity-related genes in the most recent common ancestor of the Agarico- and Pezizomycotina, consistent with the hypothesis that the coding capacity of ancestral fungal genomes might have promoted the repeated evolution of complex multicellularity. We interpret this repertoire as an indication of evolutionary predisposition of fungal ancestors for evolving complex multicellular fruiting bodies. Our work suggests that evolutionary convergence may happen not only when organisms are closely related or are under similar selection pressures, but also when ancestral genomic repertoires render certain evolutionary trajectories more likely than others, even across large phylogenetic distances.

Cytosine Methylation Affects the Mutability of Neighboring Nucleotides in Germline and Soma

Methylated cytosines deaminate at higher rates than unmethylated cytosines, and the lesions they produce are repaired less efficiently. As a result, methylated cytosines are mutational hotspots. Here, combining rare polymorphism and base-resolution methylation data in humans, Arabidopsis thaliana, and rice (Oryza sativa), we present evidence that methylation state affects mutation dynamics not only at the focal cytosine but also at neighboring nucleotides. In humans, contrary to prior suggestions, we find that nucleotides in the close vicinity (±3 bp) of methylated cytosines mutate less frequently. Reduced mutability around methylated CpGs is also observed in cancer genomes, considering single nucleotide variants alongside tissue-of-origin-matched methylation data. In contrast, methylation is associated with increased neighborhood mutation risk in A. thaliana and rice. The difference in neighborhood mutation risk is less pronounced further away from the focal CpG and modulated by regional GC content. Our results are consistent with a model where altered risk at neighboring bases is linked to lesion formation at the focal CpG and subsequent long-patch repair. Our findings indicate that cytosine methylation has a broader mutational footprint than is commonly assumed.

Experimental evolution for niche breadth in bacteriophage T4 highlights the importance of structural genes

Ecologists have long studied the evolution of niche breadth, including how variability in environments can drive the evolution of specialism and generalism. This concept is of particular interest in viruses, where niche breadth evolution may explain viral disease emergence, or underlie the potential for therapeutic measures like phage therapy. Despite the significance and potential applications of virus-host interactions, the genetic determinants of niche breadth evolution remain underexplored in many bacteriophages. In this study, we present the results of an evolution experiment with a model bacteriophage system, Escherichia virus T4, in several host environments: exposure to Escherichia coli C, exposure to E. coli K-12, and exposure to both E. coli C and E. coli K-12. This experimental framework allowed us to investigate the phenotypic and molecular manifestations of niche breadth evolution. First, we show that selection on different hosts led to measurable changes in phage productivity in all experimental populations. Second, whole-genome sequencing of experimental populations revealed signatures of selection. Finally, clear and consistent patterns emerged across the host environments, especially the presence of new mutations in phage structural genes-genes encoding proteins that provide morphological and biophysical integrity to a virus. A comparison of mutations found across functional gene categories revealed that structural genes acquired significantly more mutations than other categories. Our findings suggest that structural genes are central determinants in bacteriophage niche breadth.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Structural Variation at a Key Locus for Color Pattern Diversification in Cichlid Fishes

Color patterns in African cichlid fishes vary spectacularly. Although phylogenetic analysis showed already 30 years ago that many color patterns evolved repeatedly in these adaptive radiations, only recently have we begun to understand the genomic basis of color variation. Horizontal stripe patterns evolved and were lost several times independently across the adaptive radiations of Lake Victoria, Malawi, and Tanganyika and regulatory evolution of agouti-related peptide 2 (agrp2/asip2b) has been linked to this phenotypically labile trait. Here, we asked whether the agrp2 locus exhibits particular characteristics that facilitate divergence in color patterns. Based on comparative genomic analyses, we discovered several recent duplications, insertions, and deletions. Interestingly, one of these events resulted in a tandem duplication of the last exon of agrp2. The duplication likely precedes the East African radiations that started 8-12 Ma, is not fixed within any of the radiations, and is found to vary even within some species. Moreover, we also observed variation in copy number (two to five copies) and secondary loss of the duplication, illustrating a surprising dynamic at this locus that possibly promoted functional divergence of agrp2. Our work suggests that such instances of exon duplications are a neglected mechanism potentially involved in the repeated evolution and diversification that deserves more attention.

The Role of Mutation Bias in Adaptive Evolution

Mutational input is the ultimate source of genetic variation, but mutations are not thought to affect the direction of adaptive evolution. Recently, critics of standard evolutionary theory have questioned the random and non-directional nature of mutations, claiming that the mutational process can be adaptive in its own right. We discuss here mutation bias in adaptive evolution. We find little support for mutation bias as an independent force in adaptive evolution, although it can interact with selection under conditions of small population size and when standing genetic variation is limited, entirely consistent with standard evolutionary theory. We further emphasize that natural selection can shape the phenotypic effects of mutations, giving the false impression that directed mutations are driving adaptive evolution.

Empirical measures of mutational effects define neutral models of regulatory evolution in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Understanding how phenotypes evolve requires disentangling the effects of mutation generating new variation from the effects of selection filtering it. Tests for selection frequently assume that mutation introduces phenotypic variation symmetrically around the population mean, yet few studies have tested this assumption by deeply sampling the distributions of mutational effects for particular traits. Here, we examine distributions of mutational effects for gene expression in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae by measuring the effects of thousands of point mutations introduced randomly throughout the genome. We find that the distributions of mutational effects differ for the 10 genes surveyed and are inconsistent with normality. For example, all 10 distributions of mutational effects included more mutations with large effects than expected for normally distributed phenotypes. In addition, some genes also showed asymmetries in their distribution of mutational effects, with new mutations more likely to increase than decrease the gene's expression or vice versa. Neutral models of regulatory evolution that take these empirically determined distributions into account suggest that neutral processes may explain more expression variation within natural populations than currently appreciated.

On the stability of sequences inserted into viral genomes

Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective. Here, we review experimental work on the stability of inserted sequences over a broad range of viruses, and we present some theoretical considerations concerning insert stability. Different virus genome organizations strongly impact insert stability, and factors such as the position of insertion can have a strong effect. In addition, we argue that insert stability not only depends on the characteristics of a particular genome, but that it will also depend on the host environment and the demography of a virus population. The interplay between all factors affecting stability is complex, which makes it challenging to develop a general model to predict the stability of genomic insertions. We highlight key questions and future directions, finding that insert stability is a surprisingly complex problem and that there is need for mechanism-based, predictive models. Combining theoretical models with experimental tests for stability under varying conditions can lead to improved engineering of viral modified genomes, which is a valuable tool for understanding genome evolution as well as for biotechnological applications, such as gene therapy.

Conditional Approximate Bayesian Computation: A New Approach for Across-Site Dependency in High-Dimensional Mutation-Selection Models

A key question in molecular evolutionary biology concerns the relative roles of mutation and selection in shaping genomic data. Moreover, features of mutation and selection are heterogeneous along the genome and over time. Mechanistic codon substitution models based on the mutation-selection framework are promising approaches to separating these effects. In practice, however, several complications arise, since accounting for such heterogeneities often implies handling models of high dimensionality (e.g., amino acid preferences), or leads to across-site dependence (e.g., CpG hypermutability), making the likelihood function intractable. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) could address this latter issue. Here, we propose a new approach, named Conditional ABC (CABC), which combines the sampling efficiency of MCMC and the flexibility of ABC. To illustrate the potential of the CABC approach, we apply it to the study of mammalian CpG hypermutability based on a new mutation-level parameter implying dependence across adjacent sites, combined with site-specific purifying selection on amino-acids captured by a Dirichlet process. Our proof-of-concept of the CABC methodology opens new modeling perspectives. Our application of the method reveals a high level of heterogeneity of CpG hypermutability across loci and mild heterogeneity across taxonomic groups; and finally, we show that CpG hypermutability is an important evolutionary factor in rendering relative synonymous codon usage. All source code is available as a GitHub repository (https://github.com/Simonll/LikelihoodFreePhylogenetics.git).

The role of mutation bias in adaptive molecular evolution: insights from convergent changes in protein function

An underexplored question in evolutionary genetics concerns the extent to which mutational bias in the production of genetic variation influences outcomes and pathways of adaptive molecular evolution. In the genomes of at least some vertebrate taxa, an important form of mutation bias involves changes at CpG dinucleotides: if the DNA nucleotide cytosine (C) is immediately 5' to guanine (G) on the same coding strand, then-depending on methylation status-point mutations at both sites occur at an elevated rate relative to mutations at non-CpG sites. Here, we examine experimental data from case studies in which it has been possible to identify the causative substitutions that are responsible for adaptive changes in the functional properties of vertebrate haemoglobin (Hb). Specifically, we examine the molecular basis of convergent increases in Hb-O₂ affinity in high-altitude birds. Using a dataset of experimentally verified, affinity-enhancing mutations in the Hbs of highland avian taxa, we tested whether causative changes are enriched for mutations at CpG dinucleotides relative to the frequency of CpG mutations among all possible missense mutations. The tests revealed that a disproportionate number of causative amino acid replacements were attributable to CpG mutations, suggesting that mutation bias can influence outcomes of molecular adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Convergent evolution in the genomics era: new insights and directions'.

Transition bias influences the evolution of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Transition bias, an overabundance of transitions relative to transversions, has been widely reported among studies of the rates and spectra of spontaneous mutations. However, demonstrating the role of transition bias in adaptive evolution remains challenging. In particular, it is unclear whether such biases direct the evolution of bacterial pathogens adapting to treatment. We addressed this challenge by analyzing adaptive antibiotic-resistance mutations in the major human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). We found strong evidence for transition bias in two independently curated data sets comprising 152 and 208 antibiotic-resistance mutations. This was true at the level of mutational paths (distinct adaptive DNA sequence changes) and events (individual instances of the adaptive DNA sequence changes) and across different genes and gene promoters conferring resistance to a diversity of antibiotics. It was also true for mutations that do not code for amino acid changes (in gene promoters and the 16S ribosomal RNA gene rrs) and for mutations that are synonymous to each other and are therefore likely to have similar fitness effects, suggesting that transition bias can be caused by a bias in mutation supply. These results point to a central role for transition bias in determining which mutations drive adaptive antibiotic resistance evolution in a key pathogen.

Some types of mutations occur more frequently than expected. This study shows that such bias —an excess of transitions over transversions—influences the evolution of antibiotic resistance in a key global pathogen, Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Fragile DNA contributes to repeated evolution

Sequence features that affect DNA fragility might facilitate fast, repeated evolution by elevating mutation rates at genomic hotspots.

Tail Wags the Dog? Functional Gene Classes Driving Genome-Wide GC Content in Plasmodium spp

Plasmodium parasites are valuable models to understand how nucleotide composition affects mutation, diversification, and adaptation. No other observed eukaryotes have undergone such large changes in genomic Guanine-Cytosine (GC) content as seen in the genus Plasmodium (∼30% within 35-40 Myr). Although mutational biases are known to influence GC content in the human-infective Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum; no study has addressed how different gene functional classes contribute to genus-wide compositional changes, or if Plasmodium GC content variation is driven by natural selection. Here, we tested the hypothesis that certain gene processes and functions drive variation in global GC content between Plasmodium species. We performed a large-scale comparative genomic analysis using the genomes and predicted genes of 17 Plasmodium species encompassing a wide genomic GC content range. Genic GC content was sorted and divided into ten equally sized quantiles that were then assessed for functional enrichment classes. In agreement that selection on gene classes may drive genomic GC content, trans-membrane proteins were enriched within extreme GC content quantiles (Q1 and Q10). Specifically, variant surface antigens, which primarily interact with vertebrate immune systems, showed skewed GC content distributions compared with other trans-membrane proteins. Although a definitive causation linking GC content, expression, and positive selection within variant surface antigens from Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium berghei, and Plasmodium falciparum could not be established, we found that regardless of genomic nucleotide composition, genic GC content and expression were positively correlated during trophozoite stages. Overall, these data suggest that, alongside mutational biases, functional protein classes drive Plasmodium GC content change.

Predicting mutational routes to new adaptive phenotypes

Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive 'wrinkly spreader' (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.

Developmental Bias and Evolution: A Regulatory Network Perspective

Phenotypic variation is generated by the processes of development, with some variants arising more readily than others-a phenomenon known as "developmental bias." Developmental bias and natural selection have often been portrayed as alternative explanations, but this is a false dichotomy: developmental bias can evolve through natural selection, and bias and selection jointly influence phenotypic evolution. Here, we briefly review the evidence for developmental bias and illustrate how it is studied empirically. We describe recent theory on regulatory networks that explains why the influence of genetic and environmental perturbation on phenotypes is typically not uniform, and may even be biased toward adaptive phenotypic variation. We show how bias produced by developmental processes constitutes an evolving property able to impose direction on adaptive evolution and influence patterns of taxonomic and phenotypic diversity. Taking these considerations together, we argue that it is not sufficient to accommodate developmental bias into evolutionary theory merely as a constraint on evolutionary adaptation. The influence of natural selection in shaping developmental bias, and conversely, the influence of developmental bias in shaping subsequent opportunities for adaptation, requires mechanistic models of development to be expanded and incorporated into evolutionary theory. A regulatory network perspective on phenotypic evolution thus helps to integrate the generation of phenotypic variation with natural selection, leaving evolutionary biology better placed to explain how organisms adapt and diversify.