Evaluation of a genetic risk score based on creatinine-estimated glomerular filtration rate and its association with kidney outcomes

T2DM/CKD genetic risk scores and the progression of diabetic kidney disease in T2DM subjects

This study aimed at understanding the predictive potential of genetic risk scores (GRS) for diabetic kidney disease (DKD) progression in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and Major Cardiovascular Events (MCVE) and All-Cause Mortality (ACM) as secondary outcomes. We evaluated 30 T2DM and CKD GWAS-derived single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their association with clinical outcomes in a central European cohort (n = 400 patients). Our univariate Cox analysis revealed significant associations of age, duration of diabetes, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and eGFR with progression of DKD (all P < 0.05). However, no single SNP was conclusively associated with progression to DKD, with only CERS2 and SHROOM3 approaching statistical significance. While a single SNP was associated with MCVE - WSF1 (P = 0.029), several variants were associated with ACM - specifically CANCAS1, CERS2 and C9 (all P < 0.02). Our GRS did not outperform classical clinical factors in predicting progression to DKD, MCVE or ACM. More precisely, we observed an increase only in the area under the curve (AUC) in the model combining genetic and clinical factors compared to the clinical model alone, with values of 0.582 (95 % CI 0.487-0.676) and 0.645 (95 % CI 0.556-0.735), respectively. However, this difference did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06). This study highlights the complexity of genetic predictors and their interplay with clinical factors in DKD progression. Despite the promise of personalised medicine through genetic markers, our findings suggest that current clinical factors remain paramount in the prediction of DKD. In conclusion, our results indicate that GWAS-derived GRSs for T2DM and CKD do not offer improved predictive ability over traditional clinical factors in the studied Czech T2DM population.

A methylation risk score for chronic kidney disease: a HyperGEN study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) impacts about 1 in 7 adults in the United States, but African Americans (AAs) carry a disproportionately higher burden of disease. Epigenetic modifications, such as DNA methylation at cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites, have been linked to kidney function and may have clinical utility in predicting the risk of CKD. Given the dynamic relationship between the epigenome, environment, and disease, AAs may be especially sensitive to environment-driven methylation alterations. Moreover, risk models incorporating CpG methylation have been shown to predict disease across multiple racial groups. In this study, we developed a methylation risk score (MRS) for CKD in cohorts of AAs. We selected nine CpG sites that were previously reported to be associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in epigenome-wide association studies to construct a MRS in the Hypertension Genetic Epidemiology Network (HyperGEN). In logistic mixed models, the MRS was significantly associated with prevalent CKD and was robust to multiple sensitivity analyses, including CKD risk factors. There was modest replication in validation cohorts. In summary, we demonstrated that an eGFR-based CpG score is an independent predictor of prevalent CKD, suggesting that MRS should be further investigated for clinical utility in evaluating CKD risk and progression.

Genome-wide association studies reconstructing chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health problem with an increasing epidemiological burden, and is the 16th leading cause of years of life lost worldwide. It is estimated that more than 10% of the population have a variable stage of CKD, while about 850 million people worldwide are affected. Nevertheless, public awareness remains low, clinical access is inappropriate in many circumstances and medication is still ineffective due to the lack of clear therapeutic targets. One of the main issues that drives these problems is the fact that CKD remains a clinical entity with significant causal ambiguity. Beyond diabetes mellitus and hypertension, which are the two major causes of kidney disease, there are still many gray areas in the diagnostic context of CKD. Genetics nowadays emerges as a promising field in nephrology. The role of genetic factors in CKD's causes and predisposition is well documented and thousands of genetic variants are well established to contribute to the high burden of disease. Next-generation sequencing is increasingly revealing old and new rare variants that cause Mendelian forms of chronic nephropathy while genome-wide association studies (GWAS) uncover common variants associated with CKD-defining traits in the general population. In this article we review how GWAS has revolutionized-and continues to revolutionize-the old concept of CKD. Furthermore, we present how the investigation of common genetic variants with previously unknown kidney significance has begun to expand our knowledge on disease understanding, providing valuable insights into disease mechanisms and perhaps paving the way for novel therapeutic targets.

Air pollutants, genetic factors, and risk of chronic kidney disease: Findings from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Experiment studies have suggested the emerging role of air pollutants in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, only a few population studies conducted in Asia and North America have assessed their association, and the conclusions remained controversial. This study aims to investigate the effect of air pollutants exposure on CKD in the European population and first explores the modification effect of genetic risk on this association.

METHODS

458,968 participants from the UK Biobank were included in this study. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the associations of air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and NO_x) with incident CKD. A genetic risk score of 53 single nucleotide polymorphisms was constructed to represent the genetic susceptibility to CKD. To assess the interaction effect between air pollutants and the genetic risk, we added a multiplicative interaction term and did a stratified analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, 16,637 incidents of CKD were identified. We observed positive associations between air pollutants exposure and CKD risk with the HRs for CKD were 1.09 (1.07, 1.11), 1.08 (1.06, 1.10), 1.05 (1.03, 1.07), 1.06 (1.04, 1.08) with per IQR (interquartile range) increment in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and NO_x, respectively. Stratified analysis showed that the associations between air pollutants and CKD were modest and marginal in the high genetic risk population (P > 0.05), while the associations were statistically significant in the low and intermediate genetic risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that exposure to various air pollutants, including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and NO_x, was associated with an elevated risk of CKD. This finding provide evidence that formulating strategies to improve air quality can be helpful to reduce the burden of CKD.

Polygenic association of glomerular filtration rate decline in world trade center responders

BACKGROUND

The factors associated with estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR) decline in low risk adults remain relatively unknown. We hypothesized that a polygenic risk score (PRS) will be associated with eGFR decline.

METHODS

We analyzed genetic data from 1,601 adult participants with European ancestry in the World Trade Center Health Program (baseline age 49.68 ± 8.79 years, 93% male, 23% hypertensive, 7% diabetic and 1% with cardiovascular disease) with ≥ three serial measures of serum creatinine. PRSs were calculated from an aggregation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a recent, large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) of rapid eGFR decline. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate the association of PRS with renal outcomes: baseline eGFR and CKD stage, rate of change in eGFR, stable versus declining eGFR over a 3-5-year observation period. eGFR decline was defined in separate analyses as "clinical" (> -1.0 ml/min/1.73 m2/year) or "empirical" (lower most quartile of eGFR slopes).

RESULTS

The mean baseline eGFR was ~ 86 ml/min/1.73 m2. Subjects with decline in eGFR were more likely to be diabetic. PRS was significantly associated with lower baseline eGFR (B = -0.96, p = 0.002), higher CKD stage (OR = 1.17, p = 0.010), decline in eGFR (OR = 1.14, p = 0.036) relative to stable eGFR, and the lower quartile of eGFR slopes (OR = 1.21, p = 0.008), after adjusting for established risk factors for CKD.

CONCLUSION

Common genetic variants are associated with eGFR decline in middle-aged adults with relatively low comorbidity burdens.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Kidney Function and Their Associations with Circulating Proteome, and Incident Kidney Diseases

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed numerous loci for kidney function (eGFR). The relationship between polygenic predictors of eGFR, risk of incident adverse kidney outcomes, and the plasma proteome is not known.

METHODS

We developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for eGFR by applying the LDpred algorithm to summary statistics generated from a multiethnic meta-analysis of CKDGen Consortium GWAS ( n =765,348) and UK Biobank GWAS (90% of the cohort; n =451,508), followed by best-parameter selection using the remaining 10% of UK Biobank data ( n =45,158). We then tested the association of the PRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study ( n =8866) with incident CKD, ESKD, kidney failure, and AKI. We also examined associations between the PRS and 4877 plasma proteins measured at middle age and older adulthood and evaluated mediation of PRS associations by eGFR.

RESULTS

The developed PRS showed a significant association with all outcomes. Hazard ratios per 1 SD lower PRS ranged from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.11) to 1.33 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.37). The PRS was significantly associated with 132 proteins at both time points. The strongest associations were with cystatin C, collagen α -1(XV) chain, and desmocollin-2. Most proteins were higher at lower kidney function, except for five proteins, including testican-2. Most correlations of the genetic PRS with proteins were mediated by eGFR.

CONCLUSIONS

A PRS for eGFR is now sufficiently strong to capture risk for a spectrum of incident kidney diseases and broadly influences the plasma proteome, primarily mediated by eGFR.

Associations of Genetic Factors, Educational Attainment, and Their Interaction With Kidney Function Outcomes

Both genetic predisposition and low educational attainment (EA) are associated with higher risk of chronic kidney disease. We examined the interaction of EA and genetic risk in kidney function outcomes. We included 3,597 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease Cohort Study, a longitudinal study in a community-based sample from Groningen, the Netherlands (median follow-up, 11 years; 1997–2012). Kidney function was approximated by obtaining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from serum creatinine and cystatin C. Individual longitudinal linear eGFR trajectories were derived from linear mixed models. Genotype data on 63 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, with known associations with eGFR, were used to calculate an allele-weighted genetic score (WGS). EA was categorized into high, medium, and low. In ordinary least squares analysis, higher WGS and lower EA showed additive effects on reduced baseline eGFR; the interaction term was nonsignificant. In analysis of eGFR decline, the significant interaction term suggested amplification of genetic risk by low EA. Adjustment for known renal risk factors did not affect our results. This study presents the first evidence of gene-environment interaction between EA and a WGS for eGFR decline and provides population-level insights into the mechanisms underlying socioeconomic disparities in chronic kidney disease.

Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as the presence of albuminuria and/or reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, is considered a growing public health problem, with its prevalence and incidence having almost doubled in the past three decades. The implementation of novel biomarkers in clinical practice is crucial, since it could allow earlier diagnosis and lead to an improvement in CKD outcomes. Nevertheless, a clear guidance on how to develop biomarkers in the setting of CKD is not yet available. The aim of this review is to report the framework for implementing biomarkers in observational and intervention studies. Biomarkers are classified as either prognostic or predictive; the first type is used to identify the likelihood of a patient to develop an endpoint regardless of treatment, whereas the second type is used to determine whether the patient is likely to benefit from a specific treatment. Many single assays and complex biomarkers were shown to improve the prediction of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in CKD patients on top of the traditional risk factors. Biomarkers were also shown to improve clinical trial designs. Understanding the correct ways to validate and implement novel biomarkers in CKD will help to mitigate the global burden of CKD and to improve the individual prognosis of these high-risk patients.

Genetic Predisposition for Renal Dysfunction and Incidence of CKD in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study

Background

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >50 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in association with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) but little is known about whether the combination of these SNPs may aid in prediction of future incidence of CKD in the population.

Methods

We included 2301 participants with baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min per 1.73 m² from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study–Cardiovascular Cohort. The eGFR was estimated during baseline (1991–1996) and after a mean follow-up of 16.6 years using the CKD–Epidemiology Collaboration 2009 creatinine equation. We combined 53 SNPs into a genetic risk score weighted by the effect size (wGRS_CKD), and examined its association with incidence of CKD stage 3A (eGFR ≤60 mL/min per 1.73 m²).

Results

At follow-up, 453 study participants were defined as having CKD stage 3A. We observed a strong association between wGRS_CKD and eGFR at baseline (P = 6.5 × 10⁻⁸) and at the follow-up reexamination (P = 5.0 × 10⁻¹⁰). The odds ratio (OR) for incidence of CKD stage 3A was 1.25 per 1 SD increment in the wGRS_CKD (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12–1.39) adjusting for potential confounders (sex, age, body mass index [BMI], baseline eGFR, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive treatment, smoking, follow-up time). Adding wGRS_CKD on the top of traditional risk factors did not improve the C-statistics (P = 0.12), but the Net Reclassification-Improvement-Index was significantly improved (cNRI = 21.3%; 95% CI: 21.2–21.4; P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

wGRS_CKD was associated with a 25% increased incidence of CKD per 1 SD increment. Although the wGRS_CKD did not improve the prediction model beyond clinical risk factors per se, the information of genetic predisposition may aid in reclassification of individuals into correct risk direction.

Association of Candidate Gene Polymorphisms With Chronic Kidney Disease: Results of a Case-Control Analysis in the Nefrona Cohort

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major risk factor for end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease and premature death. Despite classical clinical risk factors for CKD and some genetic risk factors have been identified, the residual risk observed in prediction models is still high. Therefore, new risk factors need to be identified in order to better predict the risk of CKD in the population. Here, we analyzed the genetic association of 79 SNPs of proteins associated with mineral metabolism disturbances with CKD in a cohort that includes 2,445 CKD cases and 559 controls. Genotyping was performed with matrix assisted laser desorption ionization–time of flight mass spectrometry. We used logistic regression models considering different genetic inheritance models to assess the association of the SNPs with the prevalence of CKD, adjusting for known risk factors. Eight SNPs (rs1126616, rs35068180, rs2238135, rs1800247, rs385564, rs4236, rs2248359, and rs1564858) were associated with CKD even after adjusting by sex, age and race. A model containing five of these SNPs (rs1126616, rs35068180, rs1800247, rs4236, and rs2248359), diabetes and hypertension showed better performance than models considering only clinical risk factors, significantly increasing the area under the curve of the model without polymorphisms. Furthermore, one of the SNPs (the rs2248359) showed an interaction with hypertension, being the risk genotype affecting only hypertensive patients. We conclude that 5 SNPs related to proteins implicated in mineral metabolism disturbances (Osteopontin, osteocalcin, matrix gla protein, matrix metalloprotease 3 and 24 hydroxylase) are associated to an increased risk of suffering CKD.