Serum bicarbonate and cardiovascular events in hypertensive adults: results from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial

Metabolic Acidosis in CKD: Pathogenesis, Adverse Effects, and Treatment Effects

Metabolic acidosis is a frequent complication of chronic kidney disease and is associated with a number of adverse outcomes, including worsening kidney function, poor musculoskeletal health, cardiovascular events, and death. Mechanisms that prevent metabolic acidosis detrimentally promote further kidney damage, creating a cycle between acid accumulation and acid-mediated kidney injury. Disrupting this cycle through the provision of alkali, most commonly using sodium bicarbonate, is hypothesized to preserve kidney function while also mitigating adverse effects of excess acid on bone and muscle. However, results from clinical trials have been conflicting. There is also significant interest to determine whether sodium bicarbonate might improve patient outcomes for those who do not have overt metabolic acidosis. Such individuals are hypothesized to be experiencing acid-mediated organ damage despite having a normal serum bicarbonate concentration, a state often referred to as subclinical metabolic acidosis. Results from small- to medium-sized trials in individuals with subclinical metabolic acidosis have also been inconclusive. Well-powered clinical trials to determine the efficacy and safety of sodium bicarbonate are necessary to determine if this intervention improves patient outcomes.

Pathophysiology of Diet-Induced Acid Stress

Diets can influence the body's acid-base status because specific food components yield acids, bases, or neither when metabolized. Animal-sourced foods yield acids and plant-sourced food, particularly fruits and vegetables, generally yield bases when metabolized. Modern diets proportionately contain more animal-sourced than plant-sourced foods, are, thereby, generally net acid-producing, and so constitute an ongoing acid challenge. Acid accumulation severe enough to reduce serum bicarbonate concentration, i.e., manifesting as chronic metabolic acidosis, the most extreme end of the continuum of "acid stress", harms bones and muscles and appears to enhance the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Progressive acid accumulation that does not achieve the threshold amount necessary to cause chronic metabolic acidosis also appears to have deleterious effects. Specifically, identifiable acid retention without reduced serum bicarbonate concentration, which, in this review, we will call "covert acidosis", appears to cause kidney injury and exacerbate CKD progression. Furthermore, the chronic engagement of mechanisms to mitigate the ongoing acid challenge of modern diets also appears to threaten health, including kidney health. This review describes the full continuum of "acid stress" to which modern diets contribute and the mechanisms by which acid stress challenges health. Ongoing research will develop clinically useful tools to identify stages of acid stress earlier than metabolic acidosis and determine if dietary acid reduction lowers or eliminates the threats to health that these diets appear to cause.

Serum bicarbonate concentration and the risk of death in type 2 diabetes: the Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II

AIMS

To examine whether all-cause mortality is independently associated with serum bicarbonate concentration below the laboratory reference interval in a representative, well-characterised community-based cohort of people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

1478 FDS2 participants with type 2 diabetes (mean age 65.8 years, 51.6% males, median diabetes duration 9.0 years) from the longitudinal, observational Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II (FDS2) were followed from study entry to death or end-2016. Independent associates of a low baseline serum bicarbonate (< 22 mmol/L) were determined using multiple logistic regression. The role of important covariates in influencing the association between bicarbonate and mortality was assessed by a stepwise Cox regression approach.

RESULTS

A low serum bicarbonate was associated with increased all-cause mortality in unadjusted analysis (hazard ratio (HR) 1.90 (95% confidence limits (CL) 1.39, 2.60 per mmol/L). Mortality remained significantly associated with low serum bicarbonate (HR 1.40 (95% CL 1.01, 1.94) per mmol/L) in a Cox regression model with adjustment for factors associated with mortality but not low serum bicarbonate, but inclusion of estimated glomerular filtration rate categories rendered the association non-significant (HR 1.16 (95% CL 0.83, 1.63) per mmol/L).

CONCLUSIONS

A low serum bicarbonate is not an independent prognostic marker in people with type 2 diabetes but it may be a manifestation of the pathway between the development of impaired renal function and death.

Sodium Bicarbonate Treatment and Vascular Function in CKD: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Lower serum bicarbonate levels, even within the normal range, are strongly linked to risks of cardiovascular disease in CKD, possibly by modifying vascular function. In this randomized, controlled trial, treatment with sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) did not improve vascular endothelial function or reduce arterial stiffness in participants with CKD stage 3b-4 with normal serum bicarbonate levels. In addition, NaHCO 3 treatment did not reduce left ventricular mass index. NaHCO 3 did increase plasma bicarbonate levels and urinary citrate excretion and reduce urinary ammonium excretion, indicating that the intervention was indeed effective. NaHCO 3 therapy was safe with no significant changes in BP, weight, or edema. These results do not support the use of NaHCO 3 for vascular dysfunction in participants with CKD.

BACKGROUND

Lower serum bicarbonate levels, even within the normal range, are strongly linked to risks of cardiovascular disease in CKD, possibly by modifying vascular function. Prospective interventional trials with sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) are lacking.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial examining the effect of NaHCO 3 on vascular function in 109 patients with CKD stage 3b-4 (eGFR 15-44 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) with normal serum bicarbonate levels (22-27 mEq/L). Participants were randomized 1:1 to NaHCO 3 or placebo at a dose of 0.5 mEq/lean body weight-kg per day for 12 months. The coprimary end points were change in brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and change in aortic pulse wave velocity over 12 months.

RESULTS

Ninety patients completed this study. After 12 months, plasma bicarbonate levels increased significantly in the NaHCO 3 group compared with placebo (mean [SD] difference between groups 1.35±2.1, P = 0.003). NaHCO 3 treatment did not result in a significant improvement in aortic pulse wave velocity from baseline. NaHCO 3 did result in a significant increase in flow-mediated dilation after 1 month; however, this effect disappeared at 6 and 12 months. NaHCO 3 resulted in a significant increase in 24-hour urine citrate and pH and a significant decrease in 24-hour urine ammonia. There was no significant change in left ventricular mass index, ejection fraction, or eGFR with NaHCO 3 . NaHCO 3 treatment was safe and well-tolerated with no significant changes in BP, antihypertensive medication, weight, plasma calcium, or potassium levels.

CONCLUSION

Our results do not support the use of NaHCO 3 for vascular dysfunction in participants with CKD and normal serum bicarbonate levels.

Relationship between serum bicarbonate levels and the risk of death within 30 days in ICU patients with acute ischemic stroke

Aim

To explore the relationship between baseline bicarbonate levels and their changes with 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

This cohort study collected the data of 4,048 participants from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III and MIMIC-IV databases. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional risk models were utilized to explore the relationship between bicarbonate T0 and Δbicarbonate with 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to measure the 30-day survival probability of patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Results

The median follow-up time was 30 days. At the end of the follow-up, 3,172 patients survived. Bicarbonate T0 ≤ 21 mEq/L [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, a 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.50] or 21 mEq/L < bicarbonate T0 ≤ 23 mEq/L (HR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.05-1.58) were associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke compared with bicarbonate T0 > 26 mEq/L. -2 mEq/L < Δbicarbonate ≤ 0 mEq/L (HR = 1.40, 95%CI: 1.14-1.71), 0 mEq/L < Δbicarbonate ≤ 2 mEq/L (HR = 1.44, 95%CI: 1.17-1.76), and Δbicarbonate >2 mEq/L (HR = 1.40, 95%CI: 1.15-1.71) were correlated with an elevated risk of 30-day mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients. The 30-day survival probability of acute ischemic stroke patients with 21 mEq/L < bicarbonate T0 ≤ 23 mEq/L, 23 mEq/L < bicarbonate T0 ≤ 26 mEq/L, or bicarbonate T0 >26 mEq/L was higher than that of patients with bicarbonate T0 ≤ 21 mEq/L. The 30-day survival probability was greater for patients in the Δbicarbonate ≤ -2 mEq/L group than for those in the Δbicarbonate >2 mEq/L group.

Conclusion

Low baseline bicarbonate levels and decreased bicarbonate levels during the ICU stay were associated with a high risk of 30-day mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients. Special interventions should be offered to those with low baseline and decreased bicarbonate levels during their ICU stay.

Effect of sodium bicarbonate on cardiovascular outcome and mortality in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

Background: Metabolic acidosis is a common complication in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Oral sodium bicarbonate is often used to treat metabolic acidosis and prevent CKD progression. However, there is limited information about the effect of sodium bicarbonate on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and mortality in patients with pre-dialysis advanced CKD. Method: 25599 patients with CKD stage V between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2019 were identified from the Chang Gung Research Database (CGRD), a multi-institutional electronic medical record database in Taiwan. The exposure was defined as receiving sodium bicarbonate or not. Baseline characteristics were balanced using propensity score weighting between two groups. Primary outcomes were dialysis initiation, all-cause mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke). The risks of dialysis, MACE, and mortality were compared between two groups using Cox proportional hazards models. In addition, we performed analyzes using Fine and Gray sub-distribution hazard models that considered death as a competing risk. Result: Among 25599 patients with CKD stage V, 5084 patients (19.9%) were sodium bicarbonate users while 20515 (80.1%) were sodium bicarbonate non-users. The groups had similar risk of dialysis initiation (hazard ratio (HR): 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.02, p < 0.379). However, taking sodium bicarbonate was associated with a significantly lower risks of MACE (HR: 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, p < 0.001) and hospitalizations for acute pulmonary edema (HR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.96, p < 0.001) compared with non-users. The mortality risks were significantly lower in sodium bicarbonate users compared with sodium bicarbonate non-users (HR: 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.77, p < 0.001). Conclusion: This cohort study revealed that in real world practice, use of sodium bicarbonate was associated with similar risk of dialysis compared with non-users among patients with advanced CKD stage V. Nonetheless, use of sodium bicarbonate was associated with significantly lower rate of MACE and mortality. Findings reinforce the benefits of sodium bicarbonate therapy in the expanding CKD population. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Serum Nutritional Biomarkers and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in U.S. Adults with Metabolic Syndrome: The Results from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2006

BACKGROUND

There is limited research on the associations between serum nutritional biomarkers and mortality risk in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Existing studies merely investigated the single-biomarker effect. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the combined effect of nutritional biomarker mixtures and mortality risk using the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model in patients with MetS.

METHODS

We included the MetS patients, defined according to the 2018 Guideline on the Management of Blood Cholesterol from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2001-2006. A total of 20 serum nutritional biomarkers were measured and evaluated in this study. The Cox proportional hazard model and restricted cubic spline models were used to evaluate the individual linear and non-linear association of 20 nutritional biomarkers with mortality risk. Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) was used to assess the associations between mixture of nutritional biomarkers and mortality risk.

RESULTS

A total of 1455 MetS patients had a median age of 50 years (range: 20-85). During a median of 17.1-year follow-up, 453 (24.72%) died: 146 (7.20%) caused by CVD and 87 (5.26%) by cancer. Non-linear and linear analyses indicated that, in total, eight individual biomarkers (α-carotene, β-carotene, bicarbonate, lutein/zeaxanthin, lycopene, potassium, protein, and vitamin A) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (all p-values < 0.05). Results from BKMR showed an association between the low levels of the mixture of nutritional biomarkers and high risk of all-cause mortality with the estimated effects ranging from 0.04 to 0.14 (referent: medians). α-Carotene (PIP = 0.971) and potassium (PIP = 0.796) were the primary contributors to the combined effect of the biomarker mixture. The nutritional mixture levels were found to be negatively associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and positively associated with the risk of cancer mortality. After it was stratified by nutrients, the mixture of vitamins showed a negative association with all-cause and CVD mortality, whereas the mixture of mineral-related biomarkers was positively associated with all-cause and cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the evidence that nutritional status was associated with long-term health outcomes in MetS patients. It is necessary for MetS patients to be concerned with certain nutritional status (i.e., vitamins and mineral elements).

Acid-Mediated Kidney Injury Across the Spectrum of Metabolic Acidosis

Metabolic acidosis affects about 15% of patients with chronic kidney disease. As kidney function declines, the kidneys progressively fail to eliminate acid, primarily reflected by a decrease in ammonium and titratable acid excretion. Several studies have shown that the net acid load remains unchanged in patients with reduced kidney function; the ensuing acid accumulation can precede overt metabolic acidosis, and thus, indicators of urinary acid or potential base excretion, such as ammonium and citrate, may serve as early signals of impending metabolic acidosis. Acid retention, with or without overt metabolic acidosis, initiates compensatory responses that can promote tubulointerstitial fibrosis via intrarenal complement activation and upregulation of endothelin-1, angiotensin II, and aldosterone pathways. The net effect is a cycle between acid accumulation and kidney injury. Results from small- to medium-sized interventional trials suggest that interrupting this cycle through base administration can prevent further kidney injury. While these findings inform current clinical practice guidelines, large-scale clinical trials are still necessary to prove that base therapy can limit chronic kidney disease progression or associated adverse events.

A novel nomogram to predict mortality in patients with stroke: a survival analysis based on the MIMIC-III clinical database

Background

Stroke is a disease characterized by sudden cerebral ischemia and is the second leading cause of death worldwide. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model to predict mortality in intensive care unit patients with stroke.

Methods

All data involved in this study were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database (MIMIC-III). The data were analyzed using multivariate Cox regression, and the performance of the novel nomogram, which assessed the patient’s overall survival at 30, 180, and 360 days after stroke, was evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A calibration curve and decision curve were introduced to test the clinical value and effectiveness of our prediction model.

Results

A total of 767 patients with stroke were randomly divided into derivation (n = 536) and validation (n = 231) cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate Cox regression showed that 12 independent predictors, including age, weight, ventilation, cardiac arrhythmia, metastatic cancer, explicit sepsis, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score or OASIS score, diastolic blood pressure, bicarbonate, chloride, red blood cell and white blood cell counts, played a significant role in the survival of individuals with stroke. The nomogram model was validated based on the C-indices, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis results.

Conclusions

The plotted nomogram accurately predicted stroke outcomes and, thus may contribute to clinical decision-making and treatment as well as consultation services for patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01836-3.

Time-updated anion gap and cardiovascular events in advanced CKD: a cohort study

Background

Studies examining associations between metabolic acidosis and cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease (CKD) have shown conflicting results and have not differentiated between normal anion gap (hyperchloremic) acidosis and high anion gap acidosis. We aimed to examine the impact of normal and high anion gap acidosis, separately, on the risk of cardiovascular events among patients with CKD.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 1168 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 10–60 mL/min/1.73 m² and available data on anion gap. We analyzed the association of time-updated high anion gap (anion gap ≥9.2) with the rate of cardiovascular events using marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for time-dependent confounding. We also analyzed the association between time-updated normal anion gap acidosis (anion-gap-adjusted bicarbonate level ≤22.8 mEq/L) and cardiovascular events.

Results

The mean baseline eGFR of the cohort was 28 mL/min/1.73 m². The prevalence rates of high anion gap in CKD stages G3a, G3b, G4 and G5 were 20%, 16%, 27% and 46%, respectively. During a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, 132 patients developed cardiovascular events (3.3/100 patient-years). In MSMs, high anion gap was associated with a higher rate of cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) 1.87; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.13‒3.09; P = 0.02] and the composite of cardiovascular events or all-cause death (HR 3.28; 95% CI 2.19‒4.91; P < 0.001). Normal anion gap acidosis was not associated with cardiovascular events (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.47‒1.17; P = 0.2).

Conclusions

Among patients with advanced CKD, high anion gap was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.

Metabolic Acidosis and Cardiovascular Disease in CKD

Rationale & Objective

Metabolic acidosis related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an accelerated decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and the development of end-stage kidney disease. Whether metabolic acidosis is associated with cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with CKD is unclear.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting & Participants

The Optum De-identified Electronic Health Records Dataset, 2007–2017, was used to generate a cohort of patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD who had at least 3 estimated GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m². Patients with metabolic acidosis (serum bicarbonate 12 to <22 mEq/L) or normal serum bicarbonate (22‒29 mEq/L) at baseline were identified by 2 consecutive measurements 28‒365 days apart.

Predictor

Serum bicarbonate as a continuous variable.

Outcome

Primary outcome was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE+). Secondary outcomes included individual components of the composite outcome.

Analytical Approach

Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association between 1-mEq/L increments in serum bicarbonate and MACE+.

Results

A total of 51,558 patients were evaluated, 34% had metabolic acidosis. The median follow-up period was 3.9–4.5 years, depending on the outcome assessed. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for MACE+ was 0.964 (95% CI, 0.961–0.968). For the individual components of incident heart failure (HF), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and CV death, HRs were 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97–0.98), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97–0.99), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.96–0.97), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93–0.94), respectively, for every 1-mEq/L increase in serum bicarbonate.

Limitations

Possible residual confounding.

Conclusions

Metabolic acidosis in CKD is associated with an increased risk of MACE+ as well as the individual components of incident HF, stroke, MI, and CV death. Randomized controlled trials evaluating treatments for the correction of metabolic acidosis in CKD to prevent CV events are needed.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Bicarbonate with Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Incident ESRD

BACKGROUND

Serum bicarbonate or total carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations decline as chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses and rise after dialysis initiation. While metabolic acidosis accelerates the progression of CKD and is associated with higher mortality among patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the association of CO2 concentrations before ESRD transition with post-ESRD mortality.

METHODS

A historical cohort from the Transition of Care in CKD (TC-CKD) study includes 85,505 veterans who transitioned to ESRD from October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2014. After 1,958 patients without follow-up data, 3 patients with missing date of birth, and 50,889 patients without CO2 6 months prior to ESRD transition were excluded, the study population includes 32,655 patients. Associations between CO2 concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and its rate of decline during the 12 months prior to ESRD transition and post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality were examined by using hierarchical adjustment with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The cohort was on average 68 ± 11 years old and included 29% Black veterans. Baseline concentrations of CO2 were 23 ± 4 mEq/L, and median (interquartile range) change in CO2 were -1.8 [-3.4, -0.2] mEq/L/year. High (≥28 mEq/L) and low (<18 mEq/L) CO2 concentrations showed higher adjusted mortality risk while there was no clear trend in the middle range. Consistent associations were observed irrespective of sodium bicarbonate use. There was also a U-shaped association between the change in CO2 and all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality with the lowest risk approximately at -2.0 and 0.0 mEq/L/year among sodium bicarbonate nonusers and users, respectively, and the highest mortality was among patients with decline in CO2 >4 mEq/L/year.

CONCLUSION

Both high and low pre-ESRD CO2 levels (≥28 and <18 mEq/L) during 6 months prior to dialysis transition and rate of CO2 decline >4 mEq/L/year during 1 year before dialysis initiation were associated with greater post-ESRD all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal management of CO2 in patients with advanced CKD stages transitioning to ESRD.

Metabolic Acidosis in CKD: A Review of Recent Findings

Metabolic acidosis is fairly common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The prevalence of metabolic acidosis increases with worsening kidney function and is observed in ∼40% of those with stage 4 CKD. For the past 2 decades, clinical practice guidelines have suggested treatment of metabolic acidosis to counterbalance adverse effects of metabolic acidosis on bone and muscle. Studies in animal models of CKD also demonstrated that metabolic acidosis causes kidney fibrosis. During the past decade, results from observational studies identified associations between metabolic acidosis and adverse kidney outcomes, and results from interventional studies support the hypothesis that treating metabolic acidosis with sodium bicarbonate preserves kidney function. However, convincing data from large-scale, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomized trials have been lacking. This review discusses findings from recent interventional trials of alkali therapy in CKD and new findings linking metabolic acidosis with cardiovascular disease in adults and CKD progression in children. Finally, a novel agent that treats metabolic acidosis in patients with CKD by binding hydrochloric acid in the gastrointestinal tract is discussed.