The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products

Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation.

DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION

Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence.

CONCLUSIONS

A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.

Global burden of bladder cancer attributable to smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

Bladder cancer (BCa) poses a significant medical burden worldwide. However, the epidemiological pattern of the global smoking-induced BCa burden is unclear. Our analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database showed a significant increase in the number of BCa cases worldwide from 1990 to 2019, with a clear upward trend in both age-standardized prevalence and incidence. In contrast, age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life-years (ASDR) showed a downward trend, despite an increase in the absolute number of death and disability-adjusted life years. The burden of BCa caused by smoking is greater in males, middle-aged and older adults, and people in countries with high-middle socio-demographic indices (SDI). The study highlights the continuing global health challenge posed by smoking-related BCa. Targeted health policies and interventions are critical, especially in areas with high smoking rates and low socioeconomic status.

A systematic review of the modelling and economic evaluation studies assessing regulatory options for e-cigarette use

BACKGROUND

Governments around the world are considering regulating access to nicotine e-cigarettes to prevent uptake among youth however people that smoke tobacco may use them to assist with smoking cessation. The health and cost implications of regulating e-cigarette use among populations are unknown but have been explored in modelling studies. We reviewed health economic evaluation and simulation modelling studies that assessed long-term consequences and interpret their potential usefulness for decision-makers.

METHODS

A systematic review with a narrative synthesis was undertaken. Six databases were searched for modelling studies evaluating population-level e-cigarette control policies or interventions restricting e-cigarette use versus more liberalized use. Studies were required to report the outcomes of life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and/or healthcare costs. The quality of the studies was assessed using two quality assessment tools.

RESULTS

In total, 15 studies were included with nine for the United States and one each for the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Canada, and New Zealand. Three studies included cost-utility analyses. Most studies involved health state transition (or Markov) closed cohort models. Many studies had limitations with their model structures, data input quality and transparency, and insufficient analyses handling model uncertainty. Findings were mixed with 11 studies concluding that policies permitting e-cigarette use lead to net benefits and 4 studies concluding net losses in life-years or QALYs and/or healthcare costs.Five studies had industry conflicts of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

While authors did conclude net benefit than net harm in more of the studies so far conducted, the significant limitations that we identified with many of the studies in this review, make it uncertain whether or not countries can expect net population harms or benefits of restrictive versus unrestrictive e-cigarette policies. The generalizability of the findings is limited for decision-makers. In light of the deep uncertainty around the health and economic outcomes of e-cigarettes, simulation modelling methods and uncertainty analyses should be strengthened.

The potential impact of removing a ban on electronic nicotine delivery systems using the Mexico smoking and vaping model (SAVM)

Objective

To develop the Mexico Smoking and Vaping Model (Mexico SAVM) to estimate cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) prevalence and the public health impact of legalizing ENDS use.

Methods

SAVM, a cohort-based discrete-time simulation model, compares two scenarios. The ENDS-Restricted Scenario estimates smoking prevalence and associated mortality outcomes under the current policy of an ENDS ban, using Mexico-specific population projections, death rates, life expectancy, and smoking and e-cigarette prevalence. The ENDS-Unrestricted Scenario projects smoking and vaping prevalence under a hypothetical scenario where ENDS use is allowed. The impact of legalizing ENDS use is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the ENDS-Restricted and Unrestricted scenarios.

Results

Compared to a national ENDS ban, The Mexico SAVM projects that legalizing ENDS use could decrease smoking prevalence by 40.1% in males and 30.9% in females by 2049 compared to continuing the national ENDS ban. This reduction in prevalence would save 2.9 (2.5 males and 0.4 females) million life-years and avert almost 106 (91.0 males and 15.5 females) thousand deaths between 2025 and 2049. Public health gains decline by 43% to 59,748 SVADs averted when the switching rate is reduced by half and by 24.3% (92,806 SVADs averted) with a 25% ENDS risk level from that of cigarettes but increased by 24.3% (121,375 SVADs averted) with the 5% ENDS risk.

Conclusions

Mexico SAVM suggests that greater access to ENDS and a more permissive ENDS regulation, simultaneous with strong cigarette policies, would reduce smoking prevalence and decrease smoking-related mortality. The unanticipated effects of an ENDS ban merit closer scrutiny, with further consideration of how specific ENDS restrictions may maximize public health benefits.

Healthcare costs attributable to e-cigarette use and subsequent uptake of cigarette smoking by Australians who have never smoked

Objective New legislation to curb the rapid increase in e-cigarette use among youth is underway. We estimated the future healthcare costs for chronic diseases from e-cigarette use among never smokers who transition to tobacco smoking. Methods Using population-attributable fractions, we estimated the health expenditure attributable to e-cigarettes based on the prevalence of e-cigarette use, uptake of tobacco smoking, and risk of smoking on developing chronic disease. Data for men and women were derived from published reports on e-cigarette use prevalence, risk of smoking-related disease and addiction, and health expenditure for 25 diseases. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to address data input variation. Results Future healthcare costs attributed to new e-cigarette-initiated smokers were conservatively estimated to be (in Australian dollars) $179.6 million annually. Collectively, the estimated costs were highest for respiratory diseases ($102.2 million; 57% of total costs), malignant cancers ($49.6 million; 28%), and cardiovascular disease ($27.7 million; 15%). The uptake rate of e-cigarettes was more important in driving healthcare costs than the proportion moving from e-cigarettes to cigarette smoking. Conclusion High avoidable health system costs are predicted for the treatment of chronic conditions created by e-cigarette-initiated smoking. These costs exclude the immediate and direct healthcare harms of e-cigarette-related poisoning, lung injury, and respiratory problems, and costs associated with the unknown health harms of e-cigarette use alone. The proposed regulations to curb recreational e-cigarette use in Australia are set to prevent expensive health care arising sometime in the future from new cigarette smokers.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

BACKGROUND

Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

METHODS

SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data.

RESULTS

Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

Perspectives on limiting tobacco access and supporting access to nicotine vaping products among clients of residential drug and alcohol treatment services in Australia

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco endgame strategies aim to drive down population smoking rates, the success of which can be improved with public buy-in, including from populations with high smoking rates such as alcohol and other drug (AOD) service clients. This study aimed to explore acceptability of tobacco retail and nicotine reduction, and subsidised nicotine vaping to support AOD service clients following a smoking cessation attempt.

METHODS

We interviewed 31 Australian AOD service clients who currently or previously smoked, following a 12-week randomised trial comparing nicotine replacement therapy with nicotine vaping product (NVP) for smoking cessation. Participants were asked how effectively three scenarios would support tobacco cessation: tobacco retailer reduction, very low-nicotine cigarette standard and subsidised NVP access. We thematically analysed participant views on how each approach would support tobacco abstinence.

RESULTS

Tobacco retailer reduction raised concerns about increasing travel and accessing cigarettes from alternate sources, with generally lower acceptability, though a range of perspectives were provided. Reducing nicotine in tobacco products was described as reducing appeal of smoking and potentially increasing illicit purchases of non-reduced nicotine products. Clients of AOD services were highly accepting of subsidised NVP access for tobacco cessation, as this would partly address financial and socioeconomic barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Australian tobacco control policy should consider how these approaches impact ease and likelihood of tobacco access by AOD service clients in relation to the general population. Understanding clients' acceptability of tobacco control and endgame measures can inform how to avoid potential unintended consequences for these clients.

Reasons to decrease or stop nicotine and tobacco use among adults and association with MPOWER scores in twenty-one middle- and high-income countries, 2019-2020

INTRODUCTION

This study examined reasons why people planned to reduce or stop tobacco consumption and their relationship with MPOWER scores, adjusting for sociodemographic, cultural, and economic factors.

METHODS

Data used were Euromonitor International's Voice of the Consumer: Nicotine Survey 2019-2020, World Bank's country income and WHO's MPOWER policy scores. Analytical sample included 21913 adults of legal smoking age in 21 middle- and high-income countries who used nicotine and tobacco products and planned to reduce or stop their consumption in the next 12 months. Poisson regression models with robust error variance, adjusted for sociodemographic and tobacco use covariables, generated adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) of selecting a certain reason to reduce tobacco consumption dependent on continuous MPOWER scores.

RESULTS

Main reasons to reduce or stop tobacco consumption were improving health (85%), saving money (65%), pressure from family (19%), and using another substance instead (4%). Country variation was observed by MPOWER scores. Positive associations were found between some MPOWER scores and reasons to reduce or stop tobacco consumption: enforcing bans on tobacco advertising and using another substance (ARR=1.28; 95% CI: 1.11-1.47); warning about dangers of tobacco and saving money (ARR=1.25; 95% CI: 1.19-1.32); offering help to quit tobacco and using another substance (ARR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.10-1.45) or family pressure (ARR=1.11; 95% CI: 1.04-1.17); anti-tobacco campaigns and using another substance (ARR=1.15; 95% CI: 1.08-1.23); and raising taxes and saving money (ARR=1.11; 95% CI: 1.09-1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

MPOWER scores are associated with reported reasons to quit tobacco including to improve health, save money, respond to family pressure or use another substance instead.

A critique of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council CEO statement on electronic cigarettes

This paper critically analyses a statement by Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) on e-cigarettes in May 2022 that will be used to guide national policy. We reviewed the evidence and the conclusions drawn in the NHMRC Statement. In our view, the Statement is not a balanced reflection of the benefits and risks of vaping because it exaggerates the risks of vaping and fails to compare them to the far greater risks of smoking; it uncritically accepts evidence of harms from e-cigarettes while adopting a highly sceptical attitude towards evidence of their benefits; it incorrectly claims that the association between adolescent vaping and subsequent smoking is causal; and it understates the evidence of the benefits of e-cigarettes in assisting smokers to quit. The Statement dismisses the evidence that vaping is probably already having a positive net public health effect and misapplies the precautionary principle. Several sources of evidence supporting our assessment were published after the NHMRC Statement's publication and are also referenced. The NHMRC Statement on e-cigarettes does not present a balanced assessment of the available scientific literature and fails to meet the standard expected of a leading national scientific body.

Del consumo ocasional del tabaco a la adicción a la nicotina

Introducción. El consumo ocasional de nicotina puede generar una dependencia o adicción, siendo detectable mediante modificaciones en los mecanismos neurobiológicos. Objetivo. Contextualizar del consumo a la adicción e identificar teóricamente el  mecanismo neurobiológico de transición del consumo regular del tabaco a la adicción de la nicotina. Metodología. Se realizó una búsqueda de artículos en inglés y español usando diferentes bases de datos y combinaciones de palabras clave, se seleccionaron los artículos que describieran las características de los procesos neurobiológicos implicados en el uso o consumo intermitentedel tabaco a la adicción a la nicotina como el tema principal. Resultados. El número de investigaciones relacionados a este tema es reducido, aún más en relación con la descripción de los procesos y cambios neurales de la adicción a la nicotina. La adicción a las drogas es un proceso neuroconductual complejo que altera los circuitos del sistema de motivaciónrecompensa del cerebro, por la disminución de la dopamina y la afectación en la regulación del glutamato en los ganglios basales y extensión de la amígdala se asocia con el craving, la anticipación y el déficit en la función ejecutiva. Conclusiones. El tabaco está considerado como una droga legal, por lo que su consumo pareciera ser inofensivo. Sin embargo, las evidencias muestran que su consumo a largo plazo tiene consecuencias graves en la salud de los individuos. El entender cómo cambia el hábito de fumar ocasionalmente al consumocrónico nos hace más conscientes sobre las adaptaciones en el cerebro.