Menthol and filter ventilation in cigarettes: prevalence estimates and relationships with harm perception and smoking exposure

INTRODUCTION

Menthol and filter ventilation (FV) contribute to cigarette appeal. This observational study examines the US prevalence of menthol versus non-menthol cigarette use by FV and how harm perceptions, cigarettes per day and biomarkers of exposure vary.

METHODS

Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2014) was merged with FV levels of cigarettes and restricted to daily smoking adults who had a usual cigarette variety and did not regularly use other tobacco (N=1614). Weighted descriptive statistics identified the prevalence of menthol and non-menthol use by low (0.02%-10.04%), moderate (10.05%-23.40%), high (23.41%-28.12%) and very high FV (28.13%-61.10%). Weighted linear regression was used to examine differences in outcomes by menthol/FV adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

The prevalence of a usual brand that was non-menthol, low FV was the lowest at 2.91%. Using non-menthol cigarettes with high and very high FV (≥23.4%) vs low FV (≤10.04%) was associated with a greater likeliness of misperceiving one's cigarette variety to be less harmful than other varieties (p values<0.05). Total nicotine equivalent, biomarker for nicotine exposure, was elevated (p values<0.05) among three non-menthol groups (low, moderate and very high FV) compared with two menthol groups (moderate, very high FV).

CONCLUSION

The well-documented harm misperception linked to higher FV is more apparent in those using non-menthol than menthol cigarettes. Increased exposures were observed among some non-menthol cigarette users compared with some menthol cigarette users. These results should by no means delay a menthol ban but rather motivate concerted public health efforts to accompany the menthol ban to maximise smoking cessation.

'Stopping the start': support for proposed tobacco control policies - a population-based survey in Great Britain 2021-2023

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed public support for four proposed tobacco control policies in Great Britain: (1) Raising the sales age of tobacco by 1 year every year (Smokefree Generation); (2) Raising the sales age of tobacco from 18 years to 21 years; (3) Providing prescription e-cigarettes as smoking cessation aids to adults who smoke; (4) Restricting e-cigarette advertising to prevent youth uptake.

DESIGN

Repeat cross-sectional population-based survey weighted to match the population of Great Britain.

SETTING

The survey was conducted in England, Scotland and Wales in September 2021, October 2022 and October 2023.

PARTICIPANTS

6541 adults living in Great Britain.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Support for each policy and year and prevalence ratios (PRs) comparing support between years and subgroups.

RESULTS

The most popular policy each year was restricting e-cigarette advertising (74%/79%/85%), followed by raising the sales age to 21 years (50%/58%/64%), providing prescription e-cigarettes (45%/44%/47%) and Smokefree Generation (34%/44%/49%). The largest increases were for policies about the age of sale (Smokefree Generation: 2021/2022 PR=1.28, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.40, 2022/2023 PR=1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.20; raising the age to 21 years: 2021/2022 PR=1.16, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.23, 2022/2023 PR=1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17). Only 30% opposed Smokefree Generation in 2023 down from 41% in 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Support for each policy increased each year, except for providing prescription e-cigarettes. Restricting e-cigarette advertising was the most popular policy, while support for age of sale policies, in particular for a Smokefree Generation, grew most.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study protocol was published on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/46z2c/) prior to starting the analysis.

Restricting supply of tobacco products to pharmacies: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

We synthesised the published literature on proposals to restrict tobacco supply to pharmacies, covering (1) policy concept/rationale/attempts, (2) policy impact and implementation and (3) policy and research recommendations.

DATA SOURCES

We searched eight databases (PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, IPA, ProQuest and OATD) for publications with at least an English-language abstract. We searched reference lists of included publications manually.

STUDY SELECTION

One author screened all publications, and a second author reviewed a 10% subset. We focused on approaches to restrict the supply of tobacco products to pharmacies, without any restrictions on study design, location, participants or publication date.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data extraction adhered to the JBI Scoping Review Methodology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We included 18 publications. Among the 13 studies conducted in specific geographical contexts, 8 were from Aotearoa/New Zealand. Most publications (n=8) focused on effectiveness domains, indicating potential reductions in retailer density, smoking prevalence, disease burden, cost and increased opportunities for cessation advice. Seven explored policy acceptability among experts, pharmacists and people who smoke. Publications noted that pharmacy-only supply aligns with other programmes involving pharmacists, such as needle exchange programmes, but conflicts with efforts to phase out tobacco sales from the US and Canadian pharmacies.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress in tobacco retailing policy (eg, licensing, retailer incentives) and research (eg, assessment of policy equity and durability, application in other geographical contexts) are needed before a pharmacy-only tobacco supply model would be feasible.

A narrative analysis of a tobacco industry campaign to disrupt Aotearoa New Zealand's endgame policies

BACKGROUND

Aotearoa New Zealand passed world-leading legislation to implement tobacco endgame policies, including greatly reducing the number of tobacco retailers. British American Tobacco New Zealand and Imperial Brands Australasia tried to undermine this policy via the 'Save Our Stores' (SOS) campaign, which purportedly represented small convenience store owners' interests.

METHODS

We used the Policy Dystopia Model as a framework to review discursive and instrumental strategies employed in the SOS campaign. Specifically, we critically analysed the arguments, narratives and frames employed in the campaign.

RESULTS

Most SOS arguments drew on discursive strategies that emphasised unanticipated costs to the economy and society, and presented a near-apocalyptic future. Adverse outcomes included economic mayhem, thriving illicit trade, increased violent crime, fewer police, and heavier individual tax burdens. The campaign framed the government as an authoritarian legislator with misplaced priorities and used disinformation to bolster these claims. We identified a new normalisation narrative used to present very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) as experimental and, by implication, risky. A metanarrative of lawlessness and decreased public safety connected the different claims.

CONCLUSION

To address the existential challenges they face, tobacco companies used several discursive strategies to oppose the retailer reduction and VLNC policies. Our findings could inform counterarguments, and help international policymakers and advocates anticipate opposition they may encounter when introducing endgame measures, such as reducing tobacco availability.

Potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

The value that might be added to local economies each year through the money that people who smoke tobacco would save if everyone quit smoking is called the 'smoke-free dividend'. This study aimed to estimate the value of the smoke-free dividend across local areas in England, and how it relates to the average income in those areas.

METHODS

The study was a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of tobacco expenditure from the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) matched to income and smoking prevalence data for English local authorities. The STS sample was from 2014 to 2020 and comprised 18 721 adults who smoke cigarettes. Self-reported expenditure estimates from the STS were adjusted for under-reporting. This adjustment aimed to align the total expenditure estimate with figures derived from government tax receipts and national estimates of illicit tobacco use. The smoke-free dividend is calculated as 93% of spending on legal tobacco, which is the percentage estimated to leave the local economy, plus 100% of spending on illicit tobacco.

RESULTS

The total dividend in England is estimated to be £10.9 billion each year, which equates to £1776 per person who smokes or £246 per adult regardless of smoking status. The estimated dividend is greater in areas with lower average income, with a correlation coefficient of -0.521 (95% CI -0.629, -0.392) between the average income of local areas and the dividend per adult.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has estimated that local economies could gain a substantial dividend if everybody stopped smoking, which is larger in lower income areas, meaning that geographical economic inequalities could be reduced.

How do people who smoke perceive a tobacco retail outlet reduction policy in Aotearoa New Zealand? A qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND

Aotearoa New Zealand plans to greatly reduce tobacco retail outlets, which are concentrated in areas of higher deprivation and perpetuate health inequities caused by smoking and borne particularly by Māori. However, we lack in-depth analyses of how this measure could affect people who smoke.

METHODS

We undertook in-depth interviews with 24 adults from two urban areas who smoke. We used a novel interactive mapping approach to examine participants' current retail outlets and their views on a scenario where very few outlets would sell tobacco. To inform policy implementation, we probed participants' anticipated responses and explored the measure's wider implications, including unintended impacts. We used qualitative description to interpret the data.

RESULTS

Most participants anticipated accommodating the changes easily, by using alternative outlets or bulk-purchasing tobacco; however, they felt others would face access problems and increased costs, and greater stress. They thought the policy would spur quit attempts, reduce relapse among people who had quit and protect young people from smoking uptake, and expected more people to switch to alternative nicotine products. However, most foresaw unintended social outcomes, such as increased crime and reduced viability of local businesses.

CONCLUSIONS

Many participants hoped to become smoke-free and thought retail reduction measures would prompt quit attempts and reduce relapse. Adopting a holistic well-being perspective, such as those developed by Māori, could address concerns about unintended adverse outcomes and provide comprehensive support to people who smoke as they adjust to a fundamental change in tobacco availability.

Regulating flavours and flavour delivery technologies: an analysis of menthol cigarettes and RYO tobacco in Aotearoa New Zealand

INTRODUCTION

Menthol facilitates smoking initiation among young people, enhances nicotine's addictiveness and fosters the false belief that menthol products are safer. As a result, several countries have banned use of menthol as a characterising flavour. Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) could disallow menthol-flavoured cigarettes as part of its endgame legislation; however, little is known about the NZ menthol market.

METHODS

To examine the NZ menthol market, we analysed tobacco company returns to the Ministry of Health from 2010 to 2021. We calculated the market share of menthol cigarettes as a percentage of total cigarettes released for sale, estimated capsule cigarettes' market share as a percentage of total cigarette released for sale and menthol released for sale, and calculated menthol roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco released for sale as a percentage of total RYO released.

RESULTS

Menthol brands accounted for a relatively small but nonetheless sizeable proportion of NZ's tobacco market and in 2021 constituted 13% of NZ's factory made cigarette market and 7% of the RYO market, representing 161 million cigarettes and 25 tonnes of RYO. The introduction of capsule technologies using menthol flavours corresponded with a rise in menthol sales among factory made cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Capsule technologies using menthol flavours work synergistically to enhance the appeal of smoking and appear likely to encourage experimentation among non-smoking young people. Comprehensive policy that regulates menthol flavours and innovations used to deliver flavour sensations will support tobacco endgame goals in NZ and could inform policy in other countries.

Association between tobacco industry denormalisation beliefs and support for tobacco endgame policies: a population-based study in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations between tobacco industry denormalisation (TID) beliefs and support for tobacco endgame policies.

METHODS

A total of 2810 randomly selected adult respondents of population-based tobacco policy-related surveys (2018-2019) were included. TID beliefs (agree vs disagree/unsure) were measured by seven items: tobacco manufacturers ignore health, induce addiction, hide harm, spread false information, lure smoking, interfere with tobacco control policies and should be responsible for health problems. Score of each item was summed up and dichotomised (median=5, >5 strong beliefs; ≤5 weak beliefs). Support for tobacco endgame policies on total bans of tobacco sales (yes/no) and use (yes/no) was reported. Associations between TID beliefs and tobacco endgame policies support across various smoking status were analysed, adjusting for sociodemographics.

RESULTS

Fewer smokers (23.3%) had strong beliefs of TID than ex-smokers (48.4%) and never smokers (48.5%) (p<0.001). Support for total bans on tobacco sales (74.6%) and use (76.9%) was lower in smokers (33.3% and 35.3%) than ex-smokers (74.3% and 77.9%) and never smokers (76.0% and 78.3%) (all p values<0.001). An increase in the number of TID beliefs supported was positively associated with support for a total ban on sales (adjusted risk ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08, p<0.001) and use (1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.07, p<0.001). The corresponding associations were stronger in smokers than non-smokers (sales: 1.87 vs 1.25, p value for interaction=0.03; use: 1.78 vs 1.21, p value for interaction=0.03).

CONCLUSION

Stronger TID belief was associated with greater support for total bans on tobacco sales and use. TID intervention may increase support for tobacco endgame, especially in current smokers.

Public support for tobacco endgame policies in South Korea: Findings from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Korea Survey

BACKGROUND

Strong public support can increase the likelihood of adopting tobacco control policies. We assessed support for six commercial tobacco endgame policies in South Korea: limiting the nicotine in cigarettes, banning all additives in cigarettes, restricting the number of places where cigarettes are sold, and banning the manufacture and sales of cigarettes (unconditionally, with the provision of cessation support and with alternative tobacco products available).

METHODS

Data were obtained from 4740 adults who completed the 2020 International Tobacco Control Korea Survey. Participants were categorised based on their nicotine use: (1) did not use any products, (2) vaped and/or used heated tobacco products (HTPs) but did not smoke cigarettes, (3) smoked cigarettes only and (4) smoked cigarettes and vaped and/or used HTPs. Attitudes towards the policies were classified as supportive, undecided or opposed. Weighted multinomial logistic regression models assessed support levels according to nicotine use.

RESULTS

Support was highest for limiting the nicotine content in cigarettes (68.4%; 95% CI 64.6% to 72.3%) and restricting the number of retailers (68.1%; 95% CI 64.5% to 71.7%), and lowest for banning cigarette sales if alternative products are made available (45.0%; 95% CI 40.9% to 49.1%). People who did not use any products were most likely to support endgame policies, except for banning cigarette sales with alternatives available. The proportion of undecided participants exceeded 10% (range 13%-25%) for all policies.

CONCLUSION

There is a strong public support for tobacco endgame policies in South Korea. Further research should prioritise the development of strategies to ensure the effective implementation of highly supported policies.

Geographical differences in the financial impacts of different forms of tobacco licence fees on small retailers in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

Retailer licencing fees are a promising avenue to regulate tobacco availability. However, they face strong opposition from retailers and the tobacco industry, who argue significant financial impacts. This study compares the impacts of different forms of tobacco licence schemes on retailers' profits in Scotland.

METHODS

We calculated gross profits from tobacco sales in 179 convenience stores across Scotland using 1 099 697 electronic point-of-sale records from 16 weeks between 2019 and 2022. We estimated different fees using universal, volumetric and separate urban/rural schemes. We identified the point at which 50% of retailers would no longer make a gross profit on tobacco sales for each scheme and modelled the financial impact of 10 incremental fee levels. The financial impact was assessed based on changes in retailers' tobacco gross profits. Differences by neighbourhood deprivation and urban/rural status were examined.

RESULTS

The gross profit from tobacco per convenience store averaged £15 859/year. Profits were 2.29 times higher in urban (vs rural) areas and 1.59 times higher in high-deprivation (vs low-deprivation) areas, attributable to higher sales volumes. Tobacco gross profit decreased proportionally with increasing fee levels. Universal and urban/rural fees had greater gross profit reductions in rural and/or less deprived areas, where profits were lower, compared with volumetric fees.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of tobacco licence fees offers a potential opportunity for reducing the availability of tobacco retailers. The likely impact of a tobacco licence fee is sensitive to the type of licence scheme implemented, the level at which fees are set and the retailers' location in relation to neighbourhood deprivation and rurality.

Impact of regulatory tightening of the Hungarian tobacco retail market on availability, access and cigarette smoking prevalence of adolescents

INTRODUCTION

Policies that reduce tobacco retail density to decrease tobacco use among the youth are critical for the tobacco endgame. This paper reviews a Hungarian tobacco regulatory measure, which, since 2013, has confined the sale of tobacco products exclusively to so-called National Tobacco Shops, summarises the changes in the national tobacco retail marketplace and reports on analyses of the impact of this intervention on illegal sales to minors and adolescent smoking behaviour.

METHODS

We reviewed the available national statistical data on the structure and dynamics of the tobacco retail market. Changes in lifetime and current (past 30 days) use of cigarettes among Hungarian adolescents aged 13-17 years were assessed using data from international youth surveys on health behaviours collected in 2010-2020.

RESULTS

Since the start of policy implementation, the density of tobacco shops in Hungary decreased by 85%, from 4.1 to 0.6 per 1000 persons. The prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette smoking among adolescents declined by 13-24 percentage points (pp) and by 4.8-15 pp, respectively. The rate of illegal sales of tobacco products to minors decreased by 27.6 pp, although the prevalence of compensatory access strategies, especially asking others to buy cigarettes for minors, increased.

CONCLUSIONS

After a significant decrease in the nationwide availability of licensed tobacco retailers, Hungary experienced short-term reductions in youth smoking prevalence. However, the sporadic implementation of complementary, evidence-based tobacco control strategies might limit further declines in youth smoking initiation and tobacco product use.

Nicotine beliefs and perceptions of low nicotine labels and mitigating statements among people who do and do not smoke: a cross-sectional study from Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Aotearoa New Zealand proposed a new maximum nicotine content of 0.8 mg/g for smoked tobacco products, although the new government plans to repeal this legislation. Requiring 'Very low nicotine' (VLN) messages on cigarettes meeting this standard may reinforce misperceptions that they are less harmful than cigarettes currently sold.

METHODS

To explore knowledge of nicotine and very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs), and perceptions of cigarette packs featuring different low nicotine messages (eg, 'Very low nicotine') and mitigating statements (eg, 'No cigarettes are safe'), we surveyed 354 people who smoked, 142 who formerly smoked, and 214 people who had never smoked regularly.

RESULTS

Around half of all respondents believed VLNCs were less harmful than regular cigarettes and around two-thirds incorrectly thought nicotine causes most of the related health problems resulting from smoking. Nearly a third thought VLNCs would be less harmful than regular cigarettes; 34% believed they would be just as harmful. Mitigating statements did not affect perceptions of people who smoked, although people who formerly, or who had never smoked regularly, perceived mitigating statements referring to poisons and cancer as significantly more likely than the VLN message to discourage smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Misunderstanding of VLNCs as less harmful than regular cigarettes is widespread; VLN messages may reinforce this misperception, which mitigating statements did not correct among people who smoke. As an alternative to VLN messages, policy makers could consider introducing VLNCs on a specified date and developing public information campaigns; these measures would avoid phase-in confusion and obviate the need for VLN messaging.

Economic effects for citizens and the government of a country-level tobacco endgame strategy: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Aotearoa-New Zealand (A/NZ) was the first country to pass a comprehensive commercial tobacco endgame strategy into law. Key components include the denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products and a major reduction in tobacco retail outlets. Understanding the potential long-term economic impacts of such measures is important for government planning.

DESIGN

A tobacco policy simulation model that evaluated the health impacts of the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan was extended to evaluate the economic effects from both government and citizen perspectives. Estimates were presented in 2021 US$, discounted at 3% per annum.

RESULTS

The modelled endgame policy package generates considerable growth in income for the A/NZ population with a total cumulative gain of US$31 billion by 2050. From a government perspective, increased superannuation payments and reduced tobacco excise tax revenue result in a negative net financial position and a cumulative shortfall of US$11.5 billion by 2050. In a sensitivity analysis considering future labour force changes, the government's cumulative net position remained negative by 2050, but only by US$1.9 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

A policy such as the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan is likely to produce substantial economic benefits for citizens, and modest impacts on government finances related to reduced tobacco tax and increases in aged pensions due to increased life expectancy. Such costs can be anticipated and planned for and might be largely offset by future increases in the size of the labour force and the proportion of people 65+ years old working in the formal economy.

The solar end game: bibliometric analysis, research and development evolution, and patent activity of hybrid photovoltaic/thermal-phase change material

Solar photovoltaic-thermal hybrid with phase change material (PVT-PCM) emerges as an intelligent game changer to stimulate the clean, reliable, and affordable renewable energy technology. This PVT-PCM technology can be manipulated into generating both electricity and thermal energy that feature its practicality for residential and industrial applications. Hybridized of PCM into PVT design adds value to existing architecture with its capability to store excess heat that can be used during insufficient solar irradiation. Present work gives overview of the PVT-PCM system on technology innovation toward commercialization (viz, solar end game) subjected to bibliometric analysis, research and development evolution, and patent activity. A consolidation of these review articles was decluttered to focus on the performance and efficiency of PVT-PCM technology based on the fact that commercialization is ready once the technology is completed and qualified (at technology readiness level, TRL: 8). Economic review was conducted to understand the feasibility of the existing solar technologies and how it affects the PVT-PCM market price. Based on the contemporary findings, promising performance of PVT-PCM technology has underpinned its feasibility and technology readiness. China has predominant local and international framework and expected to be the PVT-PCM technology trendsetter in the next years through its strong international collaborative projects and pioneer in PVT-PCM patent filing. This present work underscores the solar end-game strategy and recommendation to create a path forward to achieve clean energy transition. Though, as to the date of submission of this article, no industry  has found to manufacture/sell this hybrid technology in the market.

Perspectives on limiting tobacco access and supporting access to nicotine vaping products among clients of residential drug and alcohol treatment services in Australia

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco endgame strategies aim to drive down population smoking rates, the success of which can be improved with public buy-in, including from populations with high smoking rates such as alcohol and other drug (AOD) service clients. This study aimed to explore acceptability of tobacco retail and nicotine reduction, and subsidised nicotine vaping to support AOD service clients following a smoking cessation attempt.

METHODS

We interviewed 31 Australian AOD service clients who currently or previously smoked, following a 12-week randomised trial comparing nicotine replacement therapy with nicotine vaping product (NVP) for smoking cessation. Participants were asked how effectively three scenarios would support tobacco cessation: tobacco retailer reduction, very low-nicotine cigarette standard and subsidised NVP access. We thematically analysed participant views on how each approach would support tobacco abstinence.

RESULTS

Tobacco retailer reduction raised concerns about increasing travel and accessing cigarettes from alternate sources, with generally lower acceptability, though a range of perspectives were provided. Reducing nicotine in tobacco products was described as reducing appeal of smoking and potentially increasing illicit purchases of non-reduced nicotine products. Clients of AOD services were highly accepting of subsidised NVP access for tobacco cessation, as this would partly address financial and socioeconomic barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Australian tobacco control policy should consider how these approaches impact ease and likelihood of tobacco access by AOD service clients in relation to the general population. Understanding clients' acceptability of tobacco control and endgame measures can inform how to avoid potential unintended consequences for these clients.

Use of geographically weighted regression models to inform retail endgame strategies in South Korea: application to cigarette and ENDS prevalence

BACKGROUND

Reducing tobacco retailer availability is a key tobacco endgame policy. The development and evaluation of retail-based policies require spatial methodologies. We modelled the prevalence of adult cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use according to tobacco retailer density, considering geographical variations.

METHODS

Registration data for tobacco retail businesses, a population-representative survey of South Koreans aged ≥19 years, and population and land area data were used. We merged the datasets according to geographical units. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were conducted to model cigarette and ENDS use prevalence, respectively.

FINDINGS

Tobacco retailer density was associated with increased cigarette use prevalence in the OLS model (β=2.19, p=0.02). A 1.9-fold difference by region was identified for the coefficient, indicating an association with tobacco retailer density (minimum 1.39, maximum 2.65), in the GWR analysis. No significant association was present between tobacco retailer density and ENDS prevalence in either the OLS (β=0.24, p=0.37) or the GWR model (minimum 0.20, maximum 0.28).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest the importance of using spatial methods to develop and evaluate retail-based endgame policies. The establishment of tobacco retailer databases by the introduction of licensing is necessary to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of tobacco retailer regulations.

Retailer experiences with tobacco sales bans: lessons from two early adopter jurisdictions

BACKGROUND

Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, are the first two US cities to prohibit the sale of tobacco products, passing ordinances that went into effect on 1 January 2021. We sought to learn about retailers' experiences with these laws 22 months after implementation.

METHODS

Brief in-person interviews with owners or managers of businesses that formerly sold tobacco (n=22).

RESULTS

Participant experiences varied by type of retailer. Managers at large chain stores reported no problems adapting to the law and little effect on overall sales. Many were largely indifferent to the sales bans. By contrast, most managers or owners of small, independent retailers reported losses of both revenue and customers, and expressed dissatisfaction with the laws. Small retailers in Beverly Hills objected particularly to exemptions that city made allowing hotels and cigar lounges to continue their sales, which they saw as undermining the health rationale for the law. The small geographical area covered by the policies was also a source of frustration, and retailers reported that they had lost business to retailers in nearby cities. The most common advice small retailers had for other retailers was to organise to oppose any similar attempts in their cities. A few retailers were pleased with the law or its perceived effects, including a reduction in litter.

CONCLUSION

Planning for tobacco sales ban or retailer reduction policies should include considering impacts on small retailers. Adopting such policies in as wide a geographical area as possible, as well as allowing no exemptions, may help reduce opposition.

Policy-relevant differences between secondhand and thirdhand smoke: strengthening protections from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants

Starting in the 1970s, individuals, businesses and the public have increasingly benefited from policies prohibiting smoking indoors, saving thousands of lives and billions of dollars in healthcare expenditures. Smokefree policies to protect against secondhand smoke exposure, however, do not fully protect the public from the persistent and toxic chemical residues from tobacco smoke (also known as thirdhand smoke) that linger in indoor environments for years after smoking stops. Nor do these policies address the economic costs that individuals, businesses and the public bear in their attempts to remediate this toxic residue. We discuss policy-relevant differences between secondhand smoke and thirdhand smoke exposure: persistent pollutant reservoirs, pollutant transport, routes of exposure, the time gap between initial cause and effect, and remediation and disposal. We examine four policy considerations to better protect the public from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants from all sources. We call for (a) redefining smokefree as free of tobacco smoke pollutants from secondhand and thirdhand smoke; (b) eliminating exemptions to comprehensive smoking bans; (c) identifying indoor environments with significant thirdhand smoke reservoirs; and (d) remediating thirdhand smoke. We use the case of California as an example of how secondhand smoke-protective laws may be strengthened to encompass thirdhand smoke protections. The health risks and economic costs of thirdhand smoke require that smokefree policies, environmental protections, real estate and rental disclosure policies, tenant protections, and consumer protection laws be strengthened to ensure that the public is fully protected from and informed about the risks of thirdhand smoke exposure.

Is the public ready for a tobacco-free Ireland? A national survey of public knowledge and attitudes to tobacco endgame in Ireland

AIM

Ireland will not meet the tobacco endgame goal set in its 2013 Tobacco-Free Ireland (TFI) policy of reducing smoking prevalence to less than 5% by 2025. Public opinion on tobacco endgame, a key lever to realise this goal, is uncharted in Ireland. This study aimed to measure public knowledge and attitudes to tobacco endgame.

METHODS

A telephone-administered cross-sectional survey of 1000 randomly dialled members of the general public was conducted in 2022. Prevalence of awareness, perceived achievability and support for the TFI goal and tobacco endgame measures was calculated and compared across tobacco product use status. Logistic regression identified factors independently associated with goal support.

FINDINGS

Although TFI goal awareness was low (34.0%), support was high (74.6%), although most (60.2%) believed it achievable beyond 2025. Product-focused measures were popular while support for supply-focused measures was mixed: for example, 86.1% supported nicotine content reduction while 40.3% supported user licencing. Phasing out tobacco sales was highly supported (82.8%); for most, this was contingent on support for currently addicted users. TFI goal support was independently associated with female sex (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.47, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.07), higher education (aOR 1.80, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.66) and non-tobacco product use (aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.66 to 4.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite low awareness, tobacco endgame support is strong in Ireland. Public appetite for radically reducing tobacco product appeal and availability combined with public views on endgame achievability subject to extended timelines should be used to re-invigorate tobacco endgame discussion and planning in countries at risk of failing to meet declared targets.

Fifty-year forecasts of daily smoking prevalence: can Australia reach 5% by 2030?

OBJECTIVE

To compare 50-year forecasts of Australian tobacco smoking rates in relation to trends in smoking initiation and cessation and in relation to a national target of ≤5% adult daily prevalence by 2030.

METHODS

A compartmental model of Australian population daily smoking, calibrated to the observed smoking status of 229 523 participants aged 20-99 years in 26 surveys (1962-2016) by age, sex and birth year (1910-1996), estimated smoking prevalence to 2066 using Australian Bureau of Statistics 50-year population predictions. Prevalence forecasts were compared across scenarios in which smoking initiation and cessation trends from 2017 were continued, kept constant or reversed.

RESULTS

At the end of the observation period in 2016, model-estimated daily smoking prevalence was 13.7% (90% equal-tailed interval (EI) 13.4%-14.0%). When smoking initiation and cessation rates were held constant, daily smoking prevalence reached 5.2% (90% EI 4.9%-5.5%) after 50 years, in 2066. When initiation and cessation rates continued their trajectory downwards and upwards, respectively, daily smoking prevalence reached 5% by 2039 (90% EI 2037-2041). The greatest progress towards the 5% goal came from eliminating initiation among younger cohorts, with the target met by 2037 (90% EI 2036-2038) in the most optimistic scenario. Conversely, if initiation and cessation rates reversed to 2007 levels, estimated prevalence was 9.1% (90% EI 8.8%-9.4%) in 2066.

CONCLUSION

A 5% adult daily smoking prevalence target cannot be achieved by the year 2030 based on current trends. Urgent investment in concerted strategies that prevent smoking initiation and facilitate cessation is necessary to achieve 5% prevalence by 2030.

Tobacco endgame and priority populations: a scoping review

AIM

To summarise the research literature on the impacts or perceptions of policies to end tobacco use at a population level (ie, tobacco endgame policies) among people from eight priority population groups (experiencing mental illness, substance use disorders, HIV, homelessness, unemployment or low incomes, who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer or intersex (LGBTQI+) or who have experienced incarceration).

METHODS

Guided by JBI Scoping Review Methodology, we searched six databases for original research examining the impacts or perceptions of 12 tobacco endgame policies among eight priority populations published since 2000. We report the results according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.

RESULTS

Of the 18 included studies, one described perceptions of five endgame policies among people on low incomes in Aotearoa (New Zealand), and 17 focused on the effectiveness or impacts of a very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarette standard among people experiencing mental illness (n=14), substance use disorders (n=8), low incomes (n=6), unemployment (n=1) or who identify as LGBTQI+ (n=1) in the USA. These studies provide evidence that VLNC cigarettes can reduce tobacco smoking, cigarette cravings, nicotine withdrawal and nicotine dependence among these populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the tobacco endgame literature related to these priority populations focuses on VLNC cigarettes. Identified research gaps include the effectiveness of endgame policies for reducing smoking, impacts (both expected and unexpected) and policy perceptions among these priority populations.

Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Māori:non-Māori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan

BACKGROUND

The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Māori:non-Māori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs.

RESULTS

The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Māori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Māori:non-Māori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males.

CONCLUSION

A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

Standardised cigarettes: the next step for tobacco policy?

As tobacco marketing restrictions intensify, tobacco companies increasingly turn to the cigarette product itself as a marketing medium with new flavours, capsules, novelty filter features and attractive cigarette stick designs. This paper considers a 'standardised cigarettes' policy as a potential next step in restricting tobacco marketing. This policy would remove from cigarette products all the elements that increase their appeal and addictiveness: added flavours, nicotine, and visual designs and branding. The result would be a cigarette that is flavourless, not especially addicting, and visually off-putting. This paper discusses what a standardised cigarettes policy might look like from a regulatory standpoint, and how it fits into current policy obligations under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

An argument for phasing out sales of cigarettes

The successes of tobacco control in some countries and locales have led to discussions of ending the tobacco epidemic, often called the 'endgame'. In this paper, we recommend articulating the endgame goal as phasing out sales of cigarettes, a goal once called 'unthinkable'. We develop a logic and argumentation for ending cigarette sales intended to move the discussion beyond the shadow of 'prohibition', proposing an approach that appeals to consumer protection standards and suggesting that the effort be led by low-prevalence communities. While phasing out cigarettes will not happen everywhere all at once, and may unfold differently along several lines, we argue that the gradual phase-out approach we propose will reduce the likelihood of the negative consequences often predicted to come with such a policy. To continue permitting widespread sales of the single most deadly consumer product in history is a public health failure that must be addressed.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue.

RESULTS

If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035-well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone.

CONCLUSION

These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco 'endgame'. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking.

Impact of smoking reduced nicotine content cigarettes on sensitivity to cigarette price: further results from a multi-site clinical trial

AIMS

To assess the impact of a reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes on estimated consumption of reduced nicotine cigarettes and usual brand cigarettes at a variety of hypothetical prices.

DESIGN

Double-blind study with participants assigned randomly to receive cigarettes for 6 weeks that were either usual brand or an investigational cigarette with one of five nicotine contents.

SETTING

Ten sites across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 839 eligible adult smokers randomized from 2013 to 2014.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Participants received their usual brand or an investigational cigarette with one of five nicotine contents: 15.8 (primary control), 5.2, 2.4, 1.3, or 0.4 mg/g.

MEASUREMENTS

The Cigarette Purchase Task was completed at baseline and at the week 6 post-randomization visit.

FINDINGS

Compared with normal nicotine content controls, the lowest nicotine content (0.4 mg/g) reduced the number of study cigarettes participants estimated they would smoke at a range of prices [mean reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g at a price of $4.00/pack: 9.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.81,12.19]. The lowest nicotine content also reduced the maximum amount of money allocated to study cigarettes and the price at which participants reported they would stop buying study cigarettes [median reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g, 95% CI = $8.21 (4.27,12.15) per day and $0.44 (0.17,0.71) per cigarette, respectively]. A reduction in nicotine content to the lowest level also reduced the maximum amount of money allocated to usual brand cigarettes (median reduction relative to 15.8 mg/g: $4.39 per day, 95% CI = 1.88,6.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In current smokers, a reduction in nicotine content may reduce cigarette consumption, reduce the reinforcement value of cigarettes and increase cessation if reduced nicotine content cigarettes were the only cigarette available for purchase.

Flavour preferences in youth versus adults: a review

OBJECTIVE

To understand the available evidence of how children and adults differ in their preferences for flavours that may be used in tobacco products.

DATA SOURCES

A total of 474 articles published between 1931 and August 2015 were retrieved through searches conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and PsycINFO.

STUDY SELECTION AND EXTRACTION

A 2-phase relevancy review process resulted in the identification of 59 articles and information was extracted by 2 independent reviewers.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Findings were grouped by taste and smell preferences, which are important components of overall flavour. For taste, evidence is summarised in the following categories: sweet, salty, sour, bitter, umami and fat; within each of them, findings are organised by age categories. For smell, evidence is summarised as follows: fruit/herbal/spices, tobacco and coffee and other odours. Major findings from this search indicated that sweet preference in children and adolescents was higher than in adults. Examples of preferred food-related tastes and odours for young people included cherry, candy, strawberry, orange, apple and cinnamon. Currently, all these are used to flavour cigars, cartridges for electronic cigarettes, hookah (waterpipe) and smokeless tobacco products.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants and children exhibited elevated sweet and salty preference relative to adults. Age-related changes in bitter, sour, umami and fat taste were not clear and more research would be useful. 'Sweet' food odours were highly preferred by children. Tobacco products in flavours preferred by young people may impact tobacco use and initiation, while flavours preferred by adults may impact product switching or dual use.

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population

BACKGROUND

Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco.

RESULTS

All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted).

CONCLUSIONS

These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.

Achieving the tobacco endgame: evidence on the hardening hypothesis from repeated cross-sectional studies in New Zealand 2008-2014

INTRODUCTION

The hardening hypothesis proposes that as smoking prevalence declines the proportion of 'hardcore' or 'hardened' smokers will increase. The possible constructs of hardening include reduced motivation to quit, increased levels of addiction, increased levels of disadvantage and reduced quit rates among continuing smokers. Most previous studies have investigated only a single facet of the hypothesis. We used data from a national population monitor to test the hypothesis using measures across all four hardening constructs.

METHODS

We analysed data from a biennial population-based survey of New Zealand adults (aged 15 years+) from 2008 to 2014. Data were collected through face-to-face computer-assisted personal interviews.

RESULTS

During a period of reducing smoking prevalence, there were no statistically significant changes in indicators of hardening including the proportion of smokers who were unmotivated to quit, unable to quit despite repeated attempts or receiving state benefits or on a low income. Quit rates did not change significantly over the study period. For 2014 versus 2008, the OR for recent (within last 1-12 months) quitting was 1.14 (95% CI 0.53 to 2.46) and for sustained (within previous 13-24 months) quitting was 1.88 (95% CI 0.78 to 4.54).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that robust tobacco control strategies that result in substantial declines in smoking prevalence are not accompanied by the hypothesised increase in 'hardcore' or 'hardened' smokers who are more addicted and less motivated and able to quit. The findings suggest that there is no need for substantial change in approach to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal on the grounds that the smoker population is becoming increasingly hardened.

The tobacco endgame: a qualitative review and synthesis

The tobacco endgame concept reorients discussion away from the persistent control of tobacco toward plans for ending the tobacco epidemic, and envisions a tobacco-free future. A variety of policy approaches have been proposed, with many offered prior to the introduction of the unifying term ‘endgame’. We conducted a qualitative synthesis of the literature on tobacco control endgames, and drew on media accounts and discussion of analogous ideas for illustrative purposes. We identified proposals focused on the product, user, market/supply or larger institutional structures. Research on public support for these proposals was limited, but suggestive of some public appetite for endgame ideas. Advocates should be encouraged to explore new policy options and consider the goal of a tobacco-free future.

Human rights and ethical considerations for a tobacco-free generation

In recent years, a new tobacco 'endgame' has been proposed: the denial of tobacco sale to any citizen born after a certain year, thus creating new tobacco-free generations. The proposal would not directly affect current smokers, but would impose a restriction on potential future generations of smokers. This paper examines some key legal and ethical issues raised by this proposal, critically assessing how an obligation to protect human rights might limit or support a state's ability to phase out tobacco.

Public support for raising the age of sale for tobacco to 21 in the United States

OBJECTIVES

The vast majority of tobacco users began before the age of 21. Raising the tobacco sales age to 21 has the potential to reduce tobacco use initiation and progression to regular smoking. Our objective was to assess the level of public support nationally for 'Tobacco 21' initiatives in the USA.

METHODS

The Social Climate Survey of Tobacco Control, a cross-sectional dual-frame survey representing national probability samples of adults was administered in 2013. Respondents were asked to state their agreement level with, 'The age to buy tobacco should be raised to 21.'

RESULTS

Of 3245 respondents, 70.5% support raising the age to buy tobacco to 21. The majority of adults in every demographic and smoking status category supported raising the tobacco sales age to 21. In multivariable analyses, support was highest among never smokers, females, African-Americans and older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

This national study demonstrates broad public support for raising the sales age of tobacco to 21 and will help facilitate wide dissemination of initiatives to increase the legal purchase age at national, state and local levels. Increasing public awareness about the susceptibility and rapid addiction of youth to nicotine may further increase public support for raising the tobacco sale age to 21.

Abrupt nicotine reduction as an endgame policy: a randomised trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine if smokers unmotivated to quit reduce usual cigarette consumption when cigarettes priced according to nicotine content are made available.

METHODS

Randomised, parallel-group, trial (ACTRN12612000914864) undertaken in Wakatipu/Central Otago, New Zealand. Dependent adult daily smokers unmotivated to quit were randomly allocated to an intervention group provided with 12 weeks supply of free very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes, or to a control group, who were free to purchase their usual cigarette brand over the same period. The primary outcome was change from baseline in the daily mean number of usual cigarettes smoked over the previous week, measured at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes at 6 and 12 weeks included cigarettes smoked per week (also measured at weeks 1-6 and 9), salivary cotinine, tobacco dependence, smoking satisfaction/craving, behavioural addiction to smoking, autonomy over smoking, motivation to stop, price at which participants would purchase VLNC cigarettes, quitting and adverse events.

RESULTS

Thirty-three smokers were randomised (17 intervention, 16 control). A NZ$15 price differential (per pack of 20) based on nicotine content led to a halving in the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day over the previous week, a reduction in tobacco dependence and an increase in quitting. Intervention participants smoked a similar total number of cigarettes (usual plus VLNC) as those in the control group, exposing them to a similar level of toxicants.

CONCLUSIONS

Smokers unmotivated to quit reduce their usual cigarette consumption (and thus nicotine exposure) when VLNC cigarettes are made available at a significantly reduced price.

The tobacco endgame: it's all about behavior

One of the ten great public health achievements in the 20th century was turning the tide on one of the greatest public health disasters of that century: the tobacco use and related disease epidemic. The premature death and disease caused by tobacco can be considered largely as a side-effect of tobacco use behavior and the disease of addiction. The spread of that disease was fostered by an industry that researched the behavioral and biological basis of tobacco use and addiction and applied its findings and knowledge to develop products and marketing approaches to increase the likelihood that people, especially young people, would try tobacco products and develop persistent use and addiction. Researchers outside of the tobacco industry also investigated the behavioral biology of tobacco use and their research has been critical in turning the tide of the tobacco and disease epidemic. The behavioral factors are considered vital to understand and address by United States Food and Drug Administration and Surgeon General, as well as the World Health Organization in their tobacco control efforts. This commentary discusses key behavioral factors in the rise and fall of the epidemic, as well as some of those increasingly discussed as potential contributors to the endgame.

Do consumers of manufactured cigarettes respond differently to price changes compared with their Roll-Your-Own counterparts? Evidence from New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Price-based mechanisms are an important tobacco cessation policy tool in New Zealand (NZ) and so measurement of smokers' reaction to price changes is crucial in determining efficacy of this approach. Although approximately two-thirds of NZ tobacco demand is for manufactured cigarettes (MC) and one-third is for Roll-Your-Own (RYO) tobacco, previous price elasticity estimates have ignored differences between RYO tobacco and MC consumers.

METHODS

We employ a seemingly unrelated regression econometric approach applied to quarterly data over the period 1991-2011 to estimate price elasticities of demand separately for MC and RYO tobacco.

RESULTS

Estimate of price elasticity of demand for MC is -1.033, and -0.441 for RYO tobacco. RYO tobacco is an inferior good; a 1% increase in average weekly income is associated with a 0.8% reduction in demand. RYO tobacco is a substitute for MC; a 1% increase in the price of MC is associated with a 0.867% increase in demand for RYO tobacco.

CONCLUSIONS

There is significantly different price responsiveness across the two tobacco product types. MC smokers react far more strongly to price increases compared with RYO tobacco smokers. These findings suggest that pricing mechanisms may be more effective for reducing MC demand than for RYO tobacco. However, substitution between products means that this pricing effect is muted by the uptake of RYO tobacco use. Cessation policy specific to RYO use should be designed to target this growing group.