Primary care transformation in Scotland: a qualitative evaluation of the views of patients

BACKGROUND

The new Scottish GP contract introduced in April 2018 aims to improve quality of care through expansion of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) to enable GPs to spend more time as expert medical generalists with patients with complex needs.

AIM

To explore patients' views on the changes in general practice in Scotland since the inception of the new contract.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Qualitative study with 30 patients (10 living in urban deprived areas, 10 living in urban affluent/mixed urban areas, and 10 living in remote and rural areas).

METHOD

In-depth semi-structured interviews with thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Patients were generally unaware of the new GP contract, attributing recent changes in general practice to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing concerns included access to GP consultations (especially face-to-face ones), short consultation length with GPs, and damage to continuity of care and the GP-patient relationship. Most patients spoke positively about consultations with MDT staff but still wanted to see a known GP for health concerns that they considered potentially serious. These issues were especially concerning for patients with multiple complex problems, particularly those from deprived areas.

CONCLUSION

Following the introduction of the new Scottish GP contract, patients in this study's sample were accepting of first contact care from the MDT but still wanted continuity of care and longer face-to-face consultations with GPs. These findings suggest that the expert generalist role of the GP is not being adequately supported by the new contract, especially in deprived areas, though further quantitative research is required to confirm this.

The effect of a minimum price per unit of alcohol in Scotland on alcohol-related ambulance call-outs: A controlled interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

On 1 May 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of £0.50 for alcohol, with one UK unit of alcohol being 10 ml of pure ethanol. This study measured the association between MUP and changes in the volume of alcohol-related ambulance call-outs in the overall population and in call-outs subsets (night-time call-outs and subpopulations with higher incidence of alcohol-related harm).

DESIGN

An interrupted time-series (ITS) was used to measure variations in the daily volume of alcohol-related call-outs. We performed uncontrolled ITS on both the intervention and control group and a controlled ITS built on the difference between the two series. Data were from electronic patient clinical records from the Scottish Ambulance Service.

SETTING AND CASES

Alcohol-related ambulance call-outs (intervention group) and total ambulance call-outs for people aged under 13 years (control group) in Scotland, from December 2017 to March 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

Call-outs were deemed alcohol-related if ambulance clinicians indicated that alcohol was a 'contributing factor' in the call-out and/or a validated Scottish Ambulance Service algorithm determined that the call-out was alcohol-related.

FINDINGS

No statistically significant association in the volume of call-outs was found in both the uncontrolled series [step change = 0.062, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.012, 0.0135 P = 0.091; slope change = -0.001, 95% CI = -0.001, 0.1 × 10-3 P = 0.139] and controlled series (step change = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.317, 0.298 P = 0.951; slope change = -0.003, 95% CI = -0.008, 0.002 P = 0.257). Similarly, no significant changes were found for the night-time series or for any population subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

There appears to be no statistically significant association between the introduction of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland and the volume of alcohol-related ambulance call-outs. This was observed overall, across subpopulations and at night-time.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of a smartphone app (Drink Less) versus usual digital care for reducing alcohol consumption among increasing-and-higher-risk adult drinkers in the UK: a two-arm, parallel-group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background

Digital interventions, including apps and websites, can be effective for reducing alcohol consumption. However, many are not evidence- or theory-informed and have not been evaluated. We tested the effectiveness of the Drink Less app for reducing alcohol consumption compared with usual digital care in the UK.

Methods

In this two-arm, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, we enrolled increasing-and-higher-risk drinkers (AUDIT ≥ 8) in the UK, who were motivated to reduce their alcohol consumption and willing to use a digital intervention to do so, via online methods. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1), using an online algorithm, to receive a web link to download the Drink Less app (intervention) or to the NHS alcohol advice webpage (usual digital care). Researchers were masked to group allocation. Participants were followed up at one, three and six months. The primary outcome was self-reported weekly alcohol consumption at six months, adjusting for baseline consumption. The full analytic sample was used in most analyses, though missing data was treated in different ways. The primary, pre-registered intention-to-treat analysis assumed baseline-carried-forwards. Secondary pre-registered analyses also focused on the full analytic sample and used alternatives including multiple imputation and last observation carried forwards. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN64052601.

Findings

Between 07/13/2020 and 03/29/2022, 5602 people were randomly assigned to the Drink Less app (n = 2788) or comparator (n = 2814) groups. Six-month follow-up rates were 79% and 80%, respectively. The primary pre-registered conservative intention-to-treat approach assuming non-responders were drinking at baseline levels of consumption, found a non-significant greater reduction of 0.98 units in weekly alcohol consumption in the intervention group at 6-month follow-up (95% CI -2.67 to 0.70). The data were insensitive to detect the hypothesised effect (Bayes factor = 1.17). Data were not missing completely at random, with 6-month follow-up rates differing in terms of education, occupation, and income. We therefore conducted the pre-registered sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation, showing that the Drink Less app resulted in a 2.00-unit greater weekly reduction at 6-month follow-up compared with the NHS alcohol advice webpage (95% CI -3.76 to -0.24). Fewer than 0.1% of participants in both arms who responded to one, three or six-month follow-up reported adverse events linked to participation in the trial.

Interpretation

The Drink Less app may be effective in reducing the alcohol consumption in increasing-and-higher-risk drinkers motivated to reduce their consumption.

Funding

NIHR Public Health Research Programme.

Trends in purchasing cross-border, illicit and home-brewed alcohol: A population study in Great Britain, 2020-2023

INTRODUCTION

The last 3 years have seen substantial changes in Great Britain (GB) including the COVID-19 pandemic, cost-of-living crisis and policy changes such as minimum unit pricing. We examined changes in purchasing cross-border, illicit and home-brewed alcohol among risky drinkers over this period.

METHODS

Data were used from 22,086 adult (≥18 years) increasing/higher-risk drinkers (AUDIT-C ≥5) participating in a monthly cross-sectional survey between October 2020 and August 2023. We estimated time trends in the proportion reporting obtaining alcohol from: (i) cross-border (any/within-GB/international); (ii) illicit; and (iii) home-brewed sources in the past 6 months.

RESULTS

Between October 2020 and August 2023, the proportion reporting cross-border alcohol purchases increased (from 8.5% to 12.5% overall; prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.47 [95% CI 1.17-1.86]). This was largely driven by an increase in cross-border purchases abroad (PR = 1.52 [1.13-2.05]), with a smaller, uncertain increase in cross-border purchases within GB (PR = 1.37 [0.96-1.95]). The prevalence of cross-border alcohol purchasing was higher in Wales (13.8% [12.3-15.4%]) and Scotland (6.1% [5.4-6.8%]) than England (3.6% [3.3-3.9%]). There was little change in illicit alcohol purchasing in England or Wales (4.1% [3.7-4.4%]; 4.2% [3.2-5.1%]), but in Scotland it fell from 5.7% to 2.4% (PR = 0.42 [0.19-0.81]). Home-brewed alcohol was rare (GB: 3.1% [2.9-3.4]) and stable.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of increasing/higher-risk drinkers in GB purchasing cross-border alcohol increased between October 2020 and August 2023, due to an increase in people buying alcohol abroad. Cross-border alcohol purchases within GB were more commonly reported in Wales and Scotland. The small proportion purchasing illicit alcohol did not change substantially in England or Wales, but fell by half in Scotland.

Estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for local authorities in Great Britain and its association with indicators of the inclusive economy: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Quantifying area-level inequalities in population health can help to inform policy responses. We describe an approach for estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), a comprehensive health expectancy measure, for local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain (GB). To identify potential factors accounting for LA-level QALE inequalities, we examined the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE.

SETTING

361/363 LAs in GB (lower tier/district level) within the period 2018-2020.

DATA AND METHODS

We estimated life tables for LAs using official statistics and utility scores from an area-level linkage of the Understanding Society survey. Using the Sullivan method, we estimated QALE at birth in years with corresponding 80% CIs. To examine the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE, we used an open access data set operationalising the inclusive economy, created by the System Science in Public Health and Health Economics Research consortium.

RESULTS

Population-weighted QALE estimates across LAs in GB were lowest in Scotland (females/males: 65.1 years/64.9 years) and Wales (65.0 years/65.2 years), while they were highest in England (67.5 years/67.6 years). The range across LAs for females was from 56.3 years (80% CI 45.6 to 67.1) in Mansfield to 77.7 years (80% CI 65.11 to 90.2) in Runnymede. QALE for males ranged from 57.5 years (80% CI 40.2 to 74.7) in Merthyr Tydfil to 77.2 years (80% CI 65.4 to 89.1) in Runnymede. Indicators of the inclusive economy accounted for more than half of the variation in QALE at the LA level (adjusted R2 females/males: 50%/57%). Although more inclusivity was generally associated with higher levels of QALE at the LA level, this association was not consistent across all 13 inclusive economy indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

QALE can be estimated for LAs in GB, enabling further research into area-level health inequalities. The associations we identified between inclusive economy indicators and QALE highlight potential policy priorities for improving population health and reducing health inequalities.

Public health engagement in alcohol licensing in England and Scotland: the ExILEnS mixed-method, natural experiment evaluation

Background

International systematic reviews suggest an association between alcohol availability and increased alcohol-related harms. Alcohol availability is regulated through separate locally administered licensing systems in England and Scotland, in which local public health teams have a statutory role. The system in Scotland includes a public health objective for licensing. Public health teams engage to varying degrees in licensing matters but no previous study has sought to objectively characterise and measure their activity, examine their effectiveness, or compare practices between Scotland and England.

Aim

To critically assess the impact and mechanisms of impact of public health team engagement in alcohol premises licensing on alcohol-related harms in England and Scotland.

Methods

We recruited 39 diverse public health teams in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12). Public health teams more active in licensing were recruited first and then matched to lower-activity public health teams. Using structured interviews (n = 66), documentation analysis, and expert consultation, we developed and applied the Public Health Engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) measure to quantify six-monthly activity levels from 2012 to 2019. Time series of PHIAL scores, and health and crime outcomes for each area, were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models to assess correlations between outcome and exposure, with 18-month average PHIAL score as the primary exposure metric. In-depth interviews (n = 53) and a workshop (n = 10) explored public health team approaches and potential mechanisms of impact of alcohol availability interventions with public health team members and licensing stakeholders (local authority licensing officers, managers and lawyers/clerks, police staff with a licensing remit, local elected representatives).

Findings

Nineteen public health team activity types were assessed in six categories: (1) staffing; (2) reviewing and (3) responding to licence applications; (4) data usage; (5) influencing licensing stakeholders/policy; and (6) public involvement. Usage and intensity of activities and overall approaches varied within and between areas over time, including between Scotland and England. The latter variation could be explained by legal, structural and philosophical differences, including Scotland's public health objective. This objective was felt to legitimise public health considerations and the use of public health data within licensing. Quantitative analysis showed no clear evidence of association between level of public health team activity and the health or crime outcomes examined, using the primary exposure or other metrics (neither change in, nor cumulative, PHIAL scores). Qualitative data suggested that public health team input was valued by many licensing stakeholders, and that alcohol availability may lead to harms by affecting the accessibility, visibility and norms of alcohol consumption, but that the licensing systems have limited power to act in the interests of public health.

Conclusions

This study provides no evidence that public health team engagement in local licensing matters was associated with measurable downstream reductions in crime or health harms, in the short term, or over a 7-year follow-up period. The extensive qualitative data suggest that public health team engagement is valued and appears to be slowly reorienting the licensing system to better address health (and other) harms, especially in Scotland, but this will take time. A rise in home drinking, alcohol deliveries, and the inherent inability of the licensing system to reduce - or in the case of online sales, to contain - availability, may explain the null findings and will continue to limit the potential of these licensing systems to address alcohol-related harms.

Future work

Further analysis could consider the relative success of different public health team approaches in terms of changing alcohol availability and retailing. A key gap relates to the nature and impact of online availability on alcohol consumption, harms and inequalities, alongside development and study of relevant policy options. A national approach to licensing data and oversight would greatly facilitate future studies and public health input to licensing.

Limitations

Our interview data and therefore PHIAL scores may be limited by recall bias where documentary evidence of public health activity was not available, and by possible variability in grading of such activity, though steps were taken to minimise both. The analyses would have benefited from additional data on licensing policies and environmental changes that might have affected availability or harms in the study areas.

Study registration

The study was registered with the Research Registry (researchregistry6162) on 26 October 2020. The study protocol was published in BMC Medical Research Methodology on 6 November 2018.

Funding

This synopsis presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as award number 15/129/11.

Geographical differences in the financial impacts of different forms of tobacco licence fees on small retailers in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

Retailer licencing fees are a promising avenue to regulate tobacco availability. However, they face strong opposition from retailers and the tobacco industry, who argue significant financial impacts. This study compares the impacts of different forms of tobacco licence schemes on retailers' profits in Scotland.

METHODS

We calculated gross profits from tobacco sales in 179 convenience stores across Scotland using 1 099 697 electronic point-of-sale records from 16 weeks between 2019 and 2022. We estimated different fees using universal, volumetric and separate urban/rural schemes. We identified the point at which 50% of retailers would no longer make a gross profit on tobacco sales for each scheme and modelled the financial impact of 10 incremental fee levels. The financial impact was assessed based on changes in retailers' tobacco gross profits. Differences by neighbourhood deprivation and urban/rural status were examined.

RESULTS

The gross profit from tobacco per convenience store averaged £15 859/year. Profits were 2.29 times higher in urban (vs rural) areas and 1.59 times higher in high-deprivation (vs low-deprivation) areas, attributable to higher sales volumes. Tobacco gross profit decreased proportionally with increasing fee levels. Universal and urban/rural fees had greater gross profit reductions in rural and/or less deprived areas, where profits were lower, compared with volumetric fees.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of tobacco licence fees offers a potential opportunity for reducing the availability of tobacco retailers. The likely impact of a tobacco licence fee is sensitive to the type of licence scheme implemented, the level at which fees are set and the retailers' location in relation to neighbourhood deprivation and rurality.

Modelling the longer-term health and health inequality impacts of changes in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in England

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption changed substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic for many people. This study quantified how these changes in drinking varied across the population and their potential longer-term impact on health and health inequalities.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study to estimate how alcohol consumption changed during the pandemic (April 2020-November 2021) and how these changes varied with age, sex, drinking level and socioeconomic position. We combined these estimates with a range of alternative scenarios of future alcohol consumption and used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the long-term health and health inequality impacts of these changes.

RESULTS

Alcohol consumption in 2020-21 increased in heavier drinkers but fell in moderate drinkers. If alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate a total of 42 677 additional hospital admissions and 1830 deaths over 20 years because of these changes. If consumption remains at 2021 levels in the long-term these figures rise to 355 832 and 12 849, respectively. In all scenarios, the biggest increase in harm occurs in the most deprived 20% of the population.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic-era changes in alcohol consumption are likely to have a significant negative impact on public health and health inequalities, even under optimistic assumptions about future drinking.

Brief interventions for smoking and alcohol associated with the COVID-19 pandemic: a population survey in England

BACKGROUND

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in March 2020 health care delivery underwent considerable changes. It is unclear how this may have affected the delivery of Brief Interventions (BIs) for smoking and alcohol. We examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the receipt of BIs for smoking and alcohol in primary care in England and whether certain priority groups (e.g., less advantaged socioeconomic positions, or a history of a mental health condition) were differentially affected.

METHODS

We used nationally representative data from a monthly cross-sectional survey in England between 03/2014 and 06/2022. Monthly trends in the receipt of BIs for smoking and alcohol were examined using generalised additive models among adults who smoked in the past-year (weighted N = 31,390) and those using alcohol at increasing and higher risk levels (AUDIT score 38, weighted N = 22,386), respectively. Interactions were tested between social grade and the change in slope after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and results reported stratified by social grade. Further logistic regression models assessed whether changes in the of receipt of BIs for smoking and alcohol, respectively, from 12/2016 to 01/2017 and 10/2020 to 06/2022 (or 03/2022 in the case of BIs for alcohol), depended on history of a mental health condition.

RESULTS

The receipt of smoking BIs declined from an average prevalence of 31.8% (95%CI 29.4-35.0) pre-March 2020 to 24.4% (95%CI 23.5-25.4) post-March 2020. The best-fitting model found that after March 2020 there was a 12-month decline before stabilising by June 2022 in social grade ABC1 at a lower level (~ 20%) and rebounding among social grade C2DE (~ 27%). Receipt of BIs for alcohol was low (overall: 4.1%, 95%CI 3.9-4.4) and the prevalence was similar pre- and post-March 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The receipt of BIs for smoking declined following March 2020 but rebounded among priority socioeconomic groups of people who smoked. BIs for alcohol among those who use alcohol at increasing and higher risk levels were low and there was no appreciable change over time. Maintaining higher BI delivery among socioeconomic and mental health priority groups of smokers and increasing and higher risk alcohol users is important to support reductions in smoking and alcohol related inequalities.

Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006-2017

INTRODUCTION

Evidence shows that price is an important policy lever in reducing consumption of alcohol and tobacco. However, there is little evidence of the cross-price effect between alcohol and tobacco.

METHODS

This paper uses an econometric model which estimates participation and consumption elasticities, on data from the UK Living Costs and Food Survey 2006-2017 and extends the literature by, for the first time, estimating joint price elasticities for disaggregated alcohol and tobacco products. This paper presents new price elasticities and compares them to the existing literature.

RESULTS

The own-price elasticity estimates are all negative for both participation and consumption. There is no pattern to the estimates of cross-price elasticities. The elasticity estimates, when used in the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model, produce bigger changes in consumption for the same change in price compared to other elasticity estimates in the existing literature.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Consumption of alcohol and tobacco are affected by the prices of one another. Policymakers should bear this in mind when devising alcohol or tobacco pricing policies.

Change and stability in British drinking practices and culture between 2009 and 2019: A longitudinal latent class analysis of drinking occasions

Rationale

Theories of practice can support understanding of health-related behaviours, but few studies use quantitative methods to understand time-trends in practices. This paper describes changes in the prevalence and performance of alcohol drinking practices in Great Britain between 2009 and 2019.

Methods

Latent class analyses of annual cross-sectional data collected between 2009 and 2019. The dataset come from a one-week retrospective diary survey of adults resident in Great Britain. It contains 604,578 drinking occasions reported by 213,470 adults (18+) who consumed alcohol in the diary-week. The measures describe occasion characteristics including companions, location, motivation, timings, accompanying activities and alcohol consumed. We estimate separate latent class models for each year and for off-trade only (e.g. home), on-trade only (e.g. bar) and mixed-trade occasions.

Results

We identified fifteen practices; four off-trade only, eight on-trade only and three mixed-trade. The prevalence of practices was largely stable over time except for shifts away from drinking with a partner and towards drinking alone in the off-trade, and shifts away from Big nights out and towards other forms of heavy drinking in the on-trade. We identified five key trends in the performance of practices: (i) spirits increasingly replaced wine as the main beverage consumed in occasions; (ii) home-drinking moved away from routinised wine-drinking with meals on weekdays and towards spirits-drinking on weekends; (iii) the Male friends at the pub practice changed less than other pub-drinking practices; (iv) Big nights out started later, often in nightclubs, and involved less pub-drinking or heavy drinking and (v) the meal-based and Going out with partner practice formats showed few changes over time.

Conclusion

Key recent trends in British drinking practices include a decline in routinised wine-drinking at home, a transformation of big nights out and a mixture of stability and change in pub- and meal-based practices.

Alcohol and smoking brief interventions by socioeconomic position: a population-based, cross-sectional study in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

Alcohol and smoking brief interventions (BIs) in general practice have been shown to be effective in lowering alcohol and smoking-related harm.

AIM

To assess prevalence of self-reported BI receipt among increasing or higher-risk drinkers and past-year smokers in England, Scotland, and Wales, and associations between intervention receipt and socioeconomic position.

DESIGN & SETTING

Cross-sectional study using data from a monthly population-based survey in England, Scotland, and Wales.

METHOD

The study comprised 47 799 participants (15 573 increasing or higher-risk drinkers [alcohol use disorders identification test consumption score ≥5] and 7791 past-year smokers) surveyed via telephone in 2020-2022 (during the COVID-19 pandemic). All data were self-reported. Prevalence of self-reported BI receipt was assessed descriptively; associations between receipt and socioeconomic position were analysed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among adults in England, Scotland, and Wales, 32.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 31.8 to 32.7) reported increasing or higher-risk drinking and 17.7% (95% CI = 17.3 to 18.1) past-year smoking. Among increasing or higher-risk drinkers, 58.0% (95% CI = 57.1 to 58.9) consulted with a GP in the past year, and of these, 4.1% (95% CI = 3.6 to 4.6) reported receiving BIs. Among past-year smokers, 55.8% (95% CI = 54.5 to 57.1) attended general practice in the past year; of these, 41.0% (95% CI = 39.4 to 42.7) stated receiving BIs. There was a tendency for patients from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds to receive more alcohol (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.38, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.73) or smoking BIs (aOR 1.11, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.26), but for the latter the results were statistically non-significant. Results did not differ notably by nation within Great Britain.

CONCLUSION

BIs in general practice are more common for smoking than for alcohol. A greater proportion of BIs for alcohol were found to be delivered to people who were from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds and who were increasing or higher-risk drinkers.

The contribution of health behaviour to socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol harm: Analysis of the UK biobank, a large cohort study with linked health outcomes

This is the first study to use the UK Biobank database to: 1) test whether participants of a low socioeconomic position (SEP) are less likely to drink, but more likely to suffer alcohol-related harm, and 2) test the contribution of behavioural factors. The database contains health-related information from 500,000 UK residents that were recruited aged 40-69 between 2006 and 2010. Our analysis focuses on participants resident in England (86% of the total sample). We obtained baseline demographics, survey data regarding alcohol consumption and other behaviours, and linked death and hospital-admission records. The primary outcome was time from study entry to experiencing an alcohol-attributable event (hospital admission or death). The relationship between alcohol-attributable harm and five measures of SEP (area-level deprivation, housing tenure, employment status, household income and qualifications) was investigated using time-to-event analysis. Average weekly alcohol consumption, other drinking behaviours (drinking history and beverage preference), and lifestyle factors (BMI and smoking status) were added incrementally as covariates in nested regression models to investigate whether they could explain the relationship between harm and SEP. 432,722 participants (197,449 men and 235,273 women) were included in the analysis with 3,496,431 person-years of follow-up. Those of a low SEP were most likely to be never/former drinkers or high-risk drinkers. However, alcohol consumption could not explain experiences of alcohol-attributable harm between SEP groups (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.48; 95% Confidence Interval 1.45-1.51, after adjusting for alcohol consumption). Drinking history, drinking mostly spirits, an unhealthy Body Mass Index and smoking all increased the risk of alcohol-attributable harm. However, these factors only partially explain SEP differences in alcohol harm as the HR for the most deprived vs the least deprived was still 1.28 after adjustment. This suggests that improving wider health behaviour of the most deprived could reduce alcohol-related inequalities. However, a substantial proportion of the variance in alcohol harm remains unexplained.

Comparing trends in mid-life 'deaths of despair' in the USA, Canada and UK, 2001-2019: is the USA an anomaly?

OBJECTIVES

In recent years, 'deaths of despair' due to drugs, alcohol and suicide have contributed to rising mid-life mortality in the USA. We examine whether despair-related deaths and mid-life mortality trends are also changing in peer countries, the UK and Canada.

DESIGN

Descriptive analysis of population mortality rates.

SETTING

The USA, UK (and constituent nations England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and Canada, 2001-2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Full population aged 35-64 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We compared all-cause and 'despair'-related mortality trends at mid-life across countries using publicly available mortality data, stratified by three age groups (35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) and by sex. We examined trends in all-cause mortality and mortality by causes categorised as (1) suicides, (2) alcohol-specific deaths and (3) drug-related deaths. We employ several descriptive approaches to visually inspect age, period and cohort trends in these causes of death.

RESULTS

The USA and Scotland both saw large relative increases and high absolute levels of drug-related deaths. The rest of the UK and Canada saw relative increases but much lower absolute levels in comparison. Alcohol-specific deaths showed less consistent trends that did not track other 'despair' causes, with older groups in Scotland seeing steep declines over time. Suicide deaths trended slowly upward in most countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK, Scotland has suffered increases in drug-related mortality comparable with the USA, while Canada and other UK constituent nations did not see dramatic increases. Alcohol-specific and suicide mortalities generally follow different patterns to drug-related deaths across countries and over time, questioning the utility of a cohesive 'deaths of despair' narrative.

How Much Should be Invested in Lung Care Across the WHO European Region? Applying a Monetary Value to Disability-Adjusted Life-Years Within the International Respiratory Coalition's Lung Facts

OBJECTIVES

The International Respiratory Coalition's Lung Facts web resource provides the latest data on a range of lung conditions covering the World Health Organization's European Region, informed by the Global Burden of Disease studies: https://international-respiratory-coalition.org/lung-facts/ . Within Lung Facts, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are monetised based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for using monetised DALYs to inform negotiations with policymakers to invest in lung care across the World Health Organization European region.

METHODS

We reflect on the existing debate and research evidence regarding the X value in an X*GDP per capita framework to monetise DALYs, with a focus on if 1*GDP per capita is conceptually and practically appropriate. Using an asthma case study, Global Burden of Disease study 2019 DALY estimates per country are presented. Gross domestic product per capita are converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity (Int$2019).

RESULTS

Using 1*GDP per capita, the estimated monetised asthma DALY burden, for example, in Kyrgyzstan or Germany is: across the whole population, $44,860,483 or $9,264,767,882, respectively; per 100,000 people, $731,600 or $10,208,317, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our indicative monetised DALY estimates can enable informed discussions with policy and decision makers, to guide financial investment in alleviating the burden of lung conditions. We suggest 1*GDP per capita as a benchmarked value forms a starting point for negotiation with policymakers for investing in lung care, by scaling the estimated lung condition DALY burden to the resource available in each country to tackle the burden.

The public-private decision for alcohol retail systems: Examining the economic, health, and social impacts of alternative systems in Finland

Background: Organising alcohol retail systems with more or less public ownership has implications for health and the economy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the economic, health, and social impacts of alcohol use in Finland in 2018 (baseline), and in two alternative scenarios in which current partial public ownership of alcohol retail sales is either increased or fully privatised. Methods: Baseline alcohol-attributable harms and costs were estimated across five categories of death, disability, and criminal justice. Two alternate alcohol retail systems were defined as privately owned stores selling: (1) only low strength alcoholic beverages (public ownership scenario, similar to Sweden); or (2) all beverages (private ownership scenario). Policy analyses were conducted to estimate changes in alcohol use per capita. Health and economic impacts were modelled using administrative data and epidemiological modelling. Results: In Finland in 2018, alcohol use was estimated to be responsible for €1.51 billion (95% Uncertainty Estimates: €1.43 billion, €1.58 billion) in social cost, 3,846 deaths, and 270,652 criminal justice events. In the public ownership scenario, it was estimated that alcohol use would decline by 15.8% (11.8%, 19.7%) and social cost by €384.3 million (€189.5 million, €559.2 million). Full privatisation was associated with an increase in alcohol use of 9.0% (6.2%, 11.8%) and an increase in social cost of €289.7 million (€140.8 million, €439.5 million). Conclusion: The outcome from applying a novel analytical approach suggests that more public ownership of the alcohol retail system may lead to significant decreases in alcohol-caused death, disability, crime, and social costs. Conversely, full privatisation of the ownership model would lead to increased harm and costs.

In silico interrogation of the miRNAome of infected hematopoietic cells to predict processes important for human cytomegalovirus latent infection

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) latency in CD34+ progenitor cells is the outcome of a complex and continued interaction of virus and host that is initiated during very early stages of infection and reflects pro- and anti-viral activity. We hypothesized that a key event during early infection could involve changes to host miRNAs, allowing for rapid modulation of the host proteome. Here, we identify 72 significantly upregulated miRNAs and three that were downregulated by 6hpi of infection of CD34+ cells which were then subject to multiple in silico analyses to identify potential genes and pathways important for viral infection. The analyses focused on the upregulated miRNAs and were used to predict potential gene hubs or common mRNA targets of multiple miRNAs. Constitutive deletion of one target, the transcriptional regulator JDP2, resulted in a defect in latent infection of myeloid cells; interestingly, transient knockdown in differentiated dendritic cells resulted in increased viral lytic IE gene expression, arguing for subtle differences in the role of JDP2 during latency establishment and reactivation of HCMV. Finally, in silico predictions identified clusters of genes with related functions (such as calcium signaling, ubiquitination, and chromatin modification), suggesting potential importance in latency and reactivation. Consistent with this hypothesis, we demonstrate that viral IE gene expression is sensitive to calcium channel inhibition in reactivating dendritic cells. In conclusion, we demonstrate HCMV alters the miRNAome rapidly upon infection and that in silico interrogation of these changes reveals new insight into mechanisms controlling viral gene expression during HCMV latency and, intriguingly, reactivation.

Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of Public Health Economic Models: An Application to Modelling of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Health economic models aim to provide decision makers with information that is contextually relevant, understandable and credible. This requires ongoing engagement throughout the research project between the modeller and end-users.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to reflect on how a public health economic model of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in South Africa benefited from, and was shaped by, stakeholders. We outline how engagement activities were used during the development, validation and communication phases of the research with input gathered at each stage to inform future priorities.

METHODS

A stakeholder mapping exercise was completed to identify stakeholders with the required knowledge, for example academics with expertise in modelling alcohol harm in South Africa, members of civil society organisations with lived experience of informal alcohol outlets, and policy professionals working at the forefront of alcohol policy development in South Africa. The stakeholder engagement consisted of four phases: developing a detailed understanding of the local policy context; co-producing model focus and structure; scrutinising model development and communication planning; and communicating research evidence to end-users. The first phase utilised 12 individual semi-structured interviews. Phases two to four centred around face-to-face workshops (two online) with both individual and group-based exercises employed to achieve required outputs.

RESULTS

Phase one provided key learning on policy context and initiated working relationships. Phases two to four provided a conceptualisation of the problem of alcohol harm in South Africa and the choice of policy to model. Stakeholders chose population subgroups of interest and advised on both economic and health outcomes. They provided input on critical assumptions, data sources, priorities for future work, and communication strategies. The final workshop provided a platform to communicate the results of the model to a largely policy audience. These activities led to the production of highly contextualised research methods and findings that were able to be communicated widely beyond academia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our programme of stakeholder engagement was fully integrated into the research programme. It resulted in a number of benefits including creating positive working relationships, guiding modelling decisions, tailoring the research to the context, and providing ongoing opportunities for communication.

The clustering of physical health conditions and associations with co-occurring mental health problems and problematic alcohol use: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is strong evidence for the co-occurrence of mental health conditions and alcohol problems, yet physical health outcomes among this group are not well characterised. This study aimed to identify clusters of physical health conditions and their associations with mental health and problematic alcohol use in England's general population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (N = 7546) was conducted. The survey used standardised measures of problematic alcohol use and mental health conditions, including the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. Participants self-reported any lifetime physical health conditions. Latent class analysis considered 12 common physical illnesses to identify clusters of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, education, and occupational grade) was used to explore associations between mental health, hazardous drinking (AUDIT 8 +), and co-occurring physical illnesses.

RESULTS

Five clusters were identified with statistically distinct and clinically meaningful disease patterns: 'Physically Healthy' (76.62%), 'Emerging Multimorbidity' (3.12%), 'Hypertension & Arthritis' (14.28%), 'Digestive & Bowel Problems'' (3.17%), and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (2.8%). Having a mental health problem was associated with increased odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (adjusted multinomial odds ratio (AMOR) = 1.58; 95% CI [1.15-2.17]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.02; 95% CI [1.49-2.74]). Individuals with co-occurring mental health conditions and problematic alcohol use also had higher odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (AMOR = 2.64; 95% CI [1.68-4.15]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.62; 95% CI [1.61-4.23]).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with a mental health condition concurrent with problematic alcohol use experience a greater burden of physical illnesses, highlighting the need for timely treatment which is likely to include better integration of alcohol and mental health services.

Impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol-related hospital outcomes: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on the primary outcome of alcohol-related hospitalisation, and secondary outcomes of length of stay, hospital mortality and alcohol-related liver disease in hospital.

DESIGN

Databases MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, APA Psycinfo, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Reviews were searched from 1 January 2011 to 11 November 2022. Inclusion criteria were studies evaluating the impact of minimum pricing policies, and we excluded non-minimum pricing policies or studies without alcohol-related hospital outcomes. The Effective Public Health Practice Project tool was used to assess risk of bias, and the Bradford Hill Criteria were used to infer causality for outcome measures.

SETTING

MUP sets a legally required floor price per unit of alcohol and is estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable healthcare burden.

PARTICIPANT

All studies meeting inclusion criteria from any country INTERVENTION: Minimum pricing policy of alcohol PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: RESULTS: 22 studies met inclusion criteria; 6 natural experiments and 16 modelling studies. Countries included Australia, Canada, England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, South Africa and Wales. Modelling studies estimated that MUP could reduce alcohol-related admissions by 3%-10% annually and the majority of real-world studies demonstrated that acute alcohol-related admissions responded immediately and reduced by 2%-9%, and chronic alcohol-related admissions lagged by 2-3 years and reduced by 4%-9% annually. Minimum pricing could target the heaviest consumers from the most deprived groups who tend to be at greatest risk of alcohol harms, and in so doing has the potential to reduce health inequalities. Using the Bradford Hill Criteria, we inferred a 'moderate-to-strong' causal link that MUP could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural studies were consistent with minimum pricing modelling studies and showed that this policy could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation and health inequalities.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021274023.

Practitioner and digitally delivered interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption in people not seeking alcohol treatment: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIM

To compare the effectiveness of practitioner versus digitally delivered interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis comprising comprehensive search for randomised controlled trials, robust screening and selection methods and appraisal with the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Network meta-analyses were conducted in Stata using random effects, frequentist models. The confidence in network meta-analysis (CINeMA) tool was used to assess confidence in effect sizes.

SETTING

Online or community or health settings where the intervention was immediately accessible without referral.

PARTICIPANTS

Non treatment-seeking hazardous or harmful drinkers.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcome was mean difference in alcohol consumption (g/wk); secondary outcome was number of single high intensity drinking episodes. Baseline consumption was analysed as a covariate.

FINDINGS

Of 201 included trials (94 753 participants), 152 reported a consumption outcome that could be converted to grams/week; 104 reported number of single high intensity drinking episodes. At 1 and 6 months, practitioner delivered interventions reduced consumption more than digitally delivered interventions (1 month: -23 g/wk (95% CI, -43 to -2); 6 months: -14 g/wk [95% CI, -25 to -3]). At 12 months there was no evidence of difference between practitioner and digitally delivered interventions (-6 g/wk [95% CI, -24 to 12]). There was no evidence of a difference in single high intensity drinking episodes between practitioner and digitally delivered interventions at any time point. Effect sizes were small, but could impact across a population with relatively high prevalence of hazardous and harmful drinking. Heterogeneity was a concern. Some inconsistency was indicated at 1 and 6 months, but little evidence was apparent at 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Practitioner delivered interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption are more effective than digitally delivered interventions up to 6 months; at 12 months there is no evidence of a difference.

Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England

AIMS

Evidence exists on the potential impact of national level minimum unit price (MUP) policies for alcohol. This study investigated the potential effectiveness of implementing MUP at regional and local levels compared with national implementation.

DESIGN

Evidence synthesis and computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (Local Authority version 4.0; SAPMLA).

SETTING

Results are produced for 23 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in North West England, 12 UTLAs in North East England, 15 UTLAs in Yorkshire and Humber, the nine English Government Office regions and England as a whole.

CASES

Health Survey for England (HSE) data 2011-13 (n = 24 685).

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, retailers' revenues, hospitalizations, National Health Service costs, crimes and alcohol-attributable deaths and health inequalities.

FINDINGS

Implementing a local £0.50 MUP for alcohol in northern English regions is estimated to result in larger percentage reductions in harms than the national average. The reductions for England, North West, North East and Yorkshire and Humber regions, respectively, in annual alcohol-attributable deaths are 1024 (-10.4%), 205 (-11.4%), 121 (-17.4%) and 159 (-16.9%); for hospitalizations are 29 943 (-4.6%), 5956 (-5.5%), 3255 (-7.9%) and 4610 (-6.9%); and for crimes are 54 229 (-2.4%), 8528 (-2.5%), 4380 (-3.5%) and 8220 (-3.2%). Results vary among local authorities; for example, annual alcohol-attributable deaths estimated to change by between -8.0 and -24.8% throughout the 50 UTLAs examined.

CONCLUSIONS

A minimum unit price local policy for alcohol is likely to be more effective in those regions, such as the three northern regions of England, which have higher levels of alcohol consumption and higher rates of alcohol harm than for the national average. In such regions, the minimum unit price policy would achieve larger reductions in alcohol consumption, alcohol-attributable mortality, hospitalization rates, NHS costs, crime rates and health inequalities.

Measuring how PH stakeholders seek to influence alcohol premises licensing in England and Scotland: the Public Health engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) measure

OBJECTIVE

In the United Kingdom, some public health teams (PHTs) routinely engage with local alcohol premises licensing systems, through which licenses to sell alcohol are granted. We aimed to categorize PHT efforts and to develop and apply a measure of their efforts over time.

METHOD

Preliminary categories of PHT activity were developed based on prior literature and were used to guide data collection with PHTs in 39 local government areas (27 in England; 12 in Scotland), sampled purposively. Relevant activity from April 2012 to March 2019 was identified through structured interviews (N = 62), documentation analysis, and follow-up checks, and a grading system was developed. The measure was refined based on expert consultation and used to grade relevant PHT activity for the 39 areas in 6-month periods.

RESULTS

The Public Health engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) Measure includes 19 activities in six categories: (a) staffing; (b) reviewing license applications; (c) responding to license applications; (d) data usage; (e) influencing licensing stakeholders or policy; and (f) public involvement. PHIAL scores for each area demonstrate fluctuation in type and level of activity between and within areas over time. Participating PHTs in Scotland were more active on average, particularly on senior leadership, policy development, and working with the public. In England, activity to influence license applications before decision was more common, and a clear increase in activity is apparent from 2014 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel PHIAL Measure successfully assessed diverse and fluctuating PHT engagement in alcohol licensing systems over time and will have practice, policy, and research applications.

Impact of public health team engagement in alcohol licensing on health and crime outcomes in England and Scotland: A comparative timeseries study between 2012 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Public health teams (PHTs) in England and Scotland engage to varying degrees in local alcohol licensing systems to try to reduce alcohol-related harms. No previous quantitative evidence is available on the effectiveness of this engagement. We aimed to quantify the effects of PHT engagement in alcohol licensing on selected health and crime outcomes.

METHODS

39 PHTs in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12) were recruited (of 40 contacted) for diversity in licensing engagement level and region, with higher activity areas matched to lower activity areas. Each PHT's engagement in licensing for each 6 month period from April 2012 to March 2019 was quantified using a new measure (PHIAL) developed using structured interviews, documentary analyses, and expert consultation. Outcomes examined were ambulance callouts, alcohol-related hospital admissions, alcohol-related and alcohol-specific mortality and violent, sexual and public order offences. Timeseries were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models. Correlations were assessed between each outcome and 18-month average PHIAL score (primary metric), cumulative PHIAL scores and change in PHIAL scores. Additionally, 6-month lagged correlations were also assessed.

FINDINGS

There was no clear evidence of any associations between the primary exposure metric and the public health or crime outcomes examined, nor between cumulative PHIAL scores or change in PHIAL score and any outcomes. There were no significant associations in England or Scotland when analysed separately or between outcomes and lagged exposure metrics.

INTERPRETATION

There is no clear evidence that allocating PHT resources to engaging in alcohol licensing is associated with downstream reductions in alcohol-related health harms or crimes, in the short term or over a seven year follow-up period. Such engagement likely has benefits in shaping the licensing system to take account of health issues longer term, but as current systems cannot reduce alcohol availability or contain online sales, their potential benefits are somewhat constrained.

FUNDING

The ExILEnS project is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (project number 15/129/11). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

Strategies to cut down drinking, alcohol consumption, and usual drinking frequency: Evidence from a British online market research survey

BACKGROUND

Relatively little is known about how risky drinkers attempt to moderate their drinking in the absence of specialist support. The broader literature has identified multiple potential strategies that people use to cope with temptation when trying to control health-risk behaviours. This study aims to identify types of alcohol moderation strategies used by British adults, and to explore how concurrent alcohol consumption differs across moderation strategies, focusing on the important role of usual drinking frequency.

METHODS

We use a continuous repeat cross-sectional survey and one-week drinking diary collected by the market research company Kantar; these provide detailed information on alcohol consumption during a diary week and on how individuals try to moderate alcohol use for 49,204 British adults trying to reduce their drinking from 2013 to 2019. We use Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to identify predominant types of moderation strategies. With a three-step method, we also analyse the associations between adopting different moderation strategies, measures of frequency and intensity of drinking events, and usual drinking frequency.

RESULTS

We found evidence of four alcohol moderation strategies: 29% of individuals use a pre-commitment-focused strategy (having fewer drinking occasions), two set of individuals adopt self-control strategies within drinking occasions (specifically 28% select smaller drinks and 5% have fewer drinks), while 38% adopt a mixed strategy that involves all three. Those using commitment tend to have a higher average consumption per drinking occasion but lower overall weekly consumption compared to those using self-control. Weekly alcohol consumption is particularly high among individuals who are usual everyday drinkers and use self-control to cut down drinking.

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides a useful platform for further work, using prospective or intervention designs, to test the relative effectiveness of different moderation strategies for alcohol consumers who want to reduce their alcohol consumption.

Efficacy of a theory-driven program to implement alcohol screening and brief interventions in primary health-care: a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Screening and brief interventions (SBI) in primary health-care practices (PHCP) are effective in reducing reported alcohol consumption, but have not been routinely implemented. Most programs seeking to improve implementation rates have lacked a theoretical rationale. This study aimed to test whether a theory-based intervention for PHCPs could significantly increase alcohol SBI delivery.

DESIGN

Two-arm, cluster-randomized controlled, parallel, 12-month follow-up, trial.

SETTING

PHCPs in Portugal.

PARTICIPANTS

Staff from 12 PHCPs (n = 222, 81.1% women): nurses (35.6%), general practitioners (28.8%), receptionists (26.1%) and family medicine residents (9.5%); patients screened for alcohol use: intervention n = 8062; controls n = 58.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

PHCPs were randomized to receive a training and support program (n = 6; 110 participants) tailored to the barriers and facilitators for implementing alcohol SBIs following the principles of the Behavior Change Wheel/Theoretical Domains Framework approach, or to a waiting-list control (n = 6; 112 participants). Training was delivered over the first 12 weeks of the trial.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the proportion of eligible patients screened (unit of analysis: patient list). Secondary outcomes included the brief intervention (BI) rate per screen-positive patient and the population-based BI rate (unit of analysis: patient list), and changes in health providers' perceptions of barriers to implementation and alcohol-related knowledge (unit of analysis: health provider).

FINDINGS

The implementation program had a significant effect on the screening activity in the intervention practices compared with control practices at the 12-month follow-up (21.7% vs. 0.16%, intention-to-treat analysis, p = 0.003). Although no significant difference was found on the BI rate per screen-positive patient (intervention 85.7% vs. control 63.6%, p = 0.55, Bayes factor = 0.28), the intervention was effective in increasing the population-based BI rate (intervention 0.69% vs. control 0.02%, p = 0.006). Health providers in the intervention arm reported fewer barriers to SBI implementation and higher levels of alcohol-related knowledge at 12-month follow-up than those in control practices.

CONCLUSION

A theory-based implementation program, which included training and support activities, significantly increased alcohol screening and population-based brief intervention rates in primary care.

Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking prevalence has been falling in England for more than 50 years, but remains a prevalent and major public health problem. This study used an age-period-cohort (APC) approach to measure lifecycle, historical and generational patterns of individual smoking behaviour.

DESIGN

APC analysis of repeated cross-sectional smoking prevalence data obtained from three nationally representative surveys.

SETTING

England (1972-2019).

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 18-90 years.

MEASUREMENTS

We studied relative odds of current smoking in relation to age in single years from 18 to 90, 24 groups of 2-year survey periods (1972-73 to 2018-19) and 20 groups of 5-year birth cohorts (1907-11 to 1997-2001). Age and period rates were studied for two groups of birth cohorts: those aged 18-25 years and those aged over 25 years.

FINDINGS

Relative to age 18, the odds of current smoking increased with age until approximately age 25 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-1.56] and then decreased progressively to age 90 (OR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.04-0.08). They also decreased almost linearly with period relative to 1972-73 (for 2018-19: OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.26-0.34) and with birth cohort relative to 1902-06, with the largest decreased observed for birth cohort 1992-96 (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.35-0.46) and 1997-2001 (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.74-0.88). Smoking declined in the 18-25 age group by an average of 7% over successive 2-year periods and by an average of 5% in those aged over 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking in England appears to have declined over recent decades mainly as a result of reduced smoking uptake before age 25, and to a lesser extent to smoking cessation after age 25.

Moderators of changes in smoking, drinking and quitting behaviour associated with the first COVID-19 lockdown in England

AIM

To estimate changes in smoking, drinking and quitting behaviour from before to during the first COVID-19 lockdown in England, and whether changes differed by age, sex or social grade.

DESIGN

Representative cross-sectional surveys of adults, collected monthly between August 2018 and July 2020.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 36 980 adults (≥ 18 years).

MEASUREMENTS

Independent variables were survey month (pre-lockdown: August-February versus lockdown months: April-July) and year (pandemic: 2019/20 versus comparator: 2018/19). Smoking outcomes were smoking prevalence, cessation, quit attempts, quit success and use of evidence-based or remote cessation support. Drinking outcomes were high-risk drinking prevalence, alcohol reduction attempts and use of evidence-based or remote support. Moderators were age, sex and occupational social grade (ABC1 = more advantaged/C2DE = less advantaged).

FINDINGS

Relative to changes during the same time period in 2018/19, lockdown was associated with significant increases in smoking prevalence [+24.7% in 2019/20 versus 0.0% in 2018/19, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12-1.63] and quit attempts (+39.9 versus -22.2%, aOR = 2.48, 95% CI = 1.76-3.50) among 18-34-year-olds, but not older groups. Increases in cessation (+156.4 versus -12.5%, aOR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.86-5.09) and the success rate of quit attempts (+99.2 versus +0.8%, aOR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.31-3.98) were also observed, and did not differ significantly by age, sex or social grade. Lockdown was associated with a significant increase in high-risk drinking prevalence among all socio-demographic groups (+39.5 versus -7.8%, aOR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.64-1.98), with particularly high increases among women (aOR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.87-2.53) and social grades C2DE (aOR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.00-2.74). Alcohol reduction attempts increased significantly among high-risk drinkers from social grades ABC1 (aOR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.78-3.00) but not C2DE (aOR = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.83-1.88). There were few significant changes in use of support for smoking cessation or alcohol reduction, although samples were small.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, the first COVID-19 lockdown was associated with increased smoking prevalence among younger adults and increased high-risk drinking prevalence among all adults. Smoking cessation activity also increased: more younger smokers made quit attempts during lockdown and more smokers quit successfully. Socio-economic disparities in drinking behaviour were evident: high-risk drinking increased by more among women and those from less advantaged social grades (C2DE), but the rate of reduction attempts increased only among the more advantaged social grades (ABC1).

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa

Introduction

South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.

Methods

We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence.

Results

We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion.

Conclusions

A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology.

Causal mechanisms proposed for the alcohol harm paradox-a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The alcohol harm paradox (AHP) posits that disadvantaged groups suffer from higher rates of alcohol-related harm compared with advantaged groups, despite reporting similar or lower levels of consumption on average. The causes of this relationship remain unclear. This study aimed to identify explanations proposed for the AHP. Secondary aims were to review the existing evidence for those explanations and investigate whether authors linked explanations to one another.

METHODS

This was a systematic review. We searched MEDLINE (1946-January 2021), EMBASE (1974-January 2021) and PsycINFO (1967-January 2021), supplemented with manual searching of grey literature. Included papers either explored the causes of the AHP or investigated the relationship between alcohol consumption, alcohol-related harm and socio-economic position. Papers were set in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development high-income countries. Explanations extracted for analysis could be evidenced in the empirical results or suggested by researchers in their narrative. Inductive thematic analysis was applied to group explanations.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine papers met the inclusion criteria and initial coding revealed that these papers contained 41 distinct explanations for the AHP. Following inductive thematic analysis, these explanations were grouped into 16 themes within six broad domains: individual, life-style, contextual, disadvantage, upstream and artefactual. Explanations related to risk behaviours, which fitted within the life-style domain, were the most frequently proposed (n = 51) and analysed (n = 21).

CONCLUSIONS

While there are many potential explanations for the alcohol harm paradox, most research focuses on risk behaviours while other explanations lack empirical testing.

Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013-2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of tax increases relies heavily on the tobacco industry passing on such increases to smokers (also referred to as 'pass-through'). Previous research has found heterogeneous levels of tax pass-through across the market segments of tobacco products available to smokers. This study uses retail sales data to assess the extent to which recent tax changes have been passed on to smokers and whether this varies across the price distribution.

METHODS

We use panel data quantile regression analysis on Nielsen commercial data of tobacco price and sales in the UK from January 2013 to March 2019 combined with official UK tax rates and inflation to calculate the rate of tax pass-through for factory made (FM) cigarettes and roll your own (RYO) tobacco.

RESULTS

Following increases in the specific tax payable on tobacco, we find evidence of overshifting across the price distribution for both FM and RYO. The rate of the overshift in tax increased the more expensive the products were. This was consistent for FM and RYO. Additionally, our findings suggest that the introduction of standardised packaging was not followed by changes in how the tobacco industry responded to tax increases.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the repeated introduction of increases in specific tobacco tax as well as standardised packaging, we show that the tobacco industry applies techniques to keep the cheapest tobacco cheaper relative to the more expensive products when passing on tax increases to smokers.

Has the increased participation in the national campaign 'Dry January' been associated with cutting down alcohol consumption in England?

AIMS

Dry January is a national multimedia campaign in the UK that encourages people to abstain from drinking alcohol during the month of January. The population-level campaign makes extensive use of email and social media to support participants and has reported a substantial increase in participation since 2015. This study aimed to assess whether the increase in participation in Dry January between 2015 and 2018 was associated with reduced alcohol consumption in England.

DESIGN

Repeat cross-sectional design.

SETTING

England, March 2014 to January 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 37,142 respondents to the Alcohol Toolkit Study, a monthly in-home survey of alcohol consumption among representative cross-sectional samples of people aged 16+ years in England.

MEASURES

Outcomes included i) percentage of adults reporting drinking monthly or less frequently in the last 6 months and ii) mean weekly alcohol consumption among drinkers derived from the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test questions on typical frequency and quantity in the last 6 months.

ANALYSES

For each outcome, regression models were fitted for month: January (2015 and 2018) vs March-December (2014 and 2017) and for year: 2014/15 vs 2017/18. Interaction terms were included in the models to examine whether the difference between January and the preceding months on each outcome measure depended upon the year (2014/15 vs 2017/18). For non-significant interactions, Bayes factors were calculated to assess the relative strength of evidence for large effects (OR = 1.80 on monthly drinking and β=-1.0 on mean consumption) compared with the null.

RESULTS

Differences between January and other months were similar in 2014/15 and 2017/18 for adults reporting drinking monthly or less frequently and the mean consumption among drinkers (OR = 0.91, 95 %CI 0.79-1.05, BF = 0.05; β = 0.55, 95 %CI=-0.14 to 1.25, BF = 0.13 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in participation in Dry January between 2015 and 2018 was not associated with large corresponding changes in people drinking monthly or less frequently over the last 6 months, or in mean weekly consumption among drinkers.

Exoseketons: A Rehab Tech Consumer's Unexpected March to Action

This paper is both a stakeholder perspectives as well as a 'case study' describing a journey from sudden disability to participant and investor in exoskeleton design. It tells of my experiences and opinions, as a successful fashion designer, when my life took a drastic turn on becoming paralysed from the waist down over the course of 24 hours, by a spinal tumour. Getting this diagnosis was 'the worst day in my life', and it was quickly followed by the 'second worst' when, in my determination to walk again, I received Knee Ankle Foot Orthotics (KAFOs) and was shocked to learn that this appeared to be the best technology solution available on the market 'suitable' for use in the community. Initial anger at the system for not being better, at the rehab team for their complacency, and at myself for allowing a feeling of helplessness to take over led to questions such as: what does this say about our society? and what are we all willing to accept, for ourselves and others? This is professional opinion and an essay about how we see ourselves and how others see us. The journey from pre-injury 'consumer' to post-injury 'disabled' person and learning that being labeled 'disabled' leads to the additional handicap of the narrow vision of "cost" taken by the mobility industry where innovative ideas are stripped down to the bare minimum with the excuse that patients are "lucky" to have what they have been "given". Grappling with these labels and inequities and seeking a better outcome, I became an integral team member of an exoskeleton development team, leading to the design of The Next Generation Exoskeleton! This is MY story, the story of Chloe Angus. It is the story of inclusive, user focused design and is a call to include and respect the end users of all assistive device technology design early in the design process and it is being told from the perspective of a person having experience and success in the world of business.

Alcohol policy and gender: a modelling study estimating gender-specific effects of alcohol pricing policies

AIMS

To describe gender differences in alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and alcohol-attributable harm. To model the effects of alcohol pricing policies on male and female consumption and hospitalizations.

DESIGN

Epidemiological simulation using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18+ years, England.

INTERVENTIONS

Three alcohol pricing policies: 10% duty increase and minimum unit prices (MUP) of £0.50 and £0.70 per UK unit.

MEASURES

Gender-specific baseline and key outcomes data: annual beverage-specific units of alcohol consumed and beverage-specific alcohol expenditure (household surveys). Alcohol-attributable hospital admissions (administrative data). Key model parameters: literature-based own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 beverage-by-location categories (e.g. off-trade beer). Sensitivity analysis with new gender-specific elasticities. Literature-based risk functions linking consumption and harm, gender-disaggregated where evidence was available. Population subgroups: 120 subgroups defined by gender (primary focus), age, deprivation quintile and baseline weekly consumption.

FINDINGS

Women consumed 59.7% of their alcohol as off-trade wine while men consumed 49.7% as beer. Women drinkers consumed fewer units annually than men (494 versus 895) and a smaller proportion of women were high-risk drinkers (4.8 versus 7.2%). Moderate drinking women had lower hospital admission rates than men (44 versus 547 per 100 000), but rates were similar for high-risk drinking women and men (14 294 versus 13 167 per 100 000). All three policies led to larger estimated reductions in consumption and admission rates among men than women. For example, a £0.50 MUP led to a 5.3% reduction in consumption and a 4.1% reduction in admissions for men but a 0.7% reduction in consumption and a 1.6% reduction in hospitalizations for women.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and harm show strong gender patterns among adult drinkers in England. Alcohol pricing policies are estimated to be more effective at reducing consumption and harm for men than women.

What Proportion of On-Trade Alcohol Is Served to Those Who Are Already Potentially Intoxicated? An Analysis of Event-Level Data

OBJECTIVE

Overservice (i.e., venues serving alcohol to intoxicated drinkers) is a major contributor to alcohol-related harm. This article estimates the proportion of all alcohol sold in on-trade premises in Great Britain that is drunk by people likely to already be intoxicated. Secondary analyses explore variations by age and gender and from 2009 to 2017.

METHOD

We used cross-sectional data from 1-week drinking diaries collected continuously from 2009 to 2017 via a nationally representative stratified quota sample of 90,968 adults resident in Britain who consumed alcohol in the on-trade across 139,938 occasions. We first identify the amount of pure alcohol consumed in occasions after individuals reach each of three consumption thresholds indicating potential intoxication: at least increasing risk (>48/64 g for women/men), at least high risk (>96/128 g), and very high risk (>144/192 g). We then calculate the proportion of all alcohol consumed in the on-trade each year that is accounted for by consumption beyond these thresholds.

RESULTS

In 2017, of all on-trade alcohol consumed, an estimated 43.3% was drunk by those who had already drunk to increasing risk levels, 20.5% by those who had already drunk to high risk levels, and 10.1% by those who had already drunk to very high risk levels. Greater proportions of the alcohol consumed by women and younger people was consumed beyond these levels, but the proportion did not change substantially from 2009 to 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

Depending on the consumption threshold used, potentially intoxicated drinkers consume between 10% and 43% of pure alcohol drunk in on-trade venues in Great Britain, suggesting that overservice is commonplace.

Do dual purchasers behave differently? An analysis of purchasing data for households that buy both alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dual purchasers of alcohol and tobacco are at increased health risk from the interacting health impacts of alcohol and tobacco use. They are also at financial risk from exposure to the dual financial cost of policies that increase alcohol and tobacco prices. Understanding whose alcohol and tobacco use exposes them to these health and financial risks is important for understanding the inequality impacts of control policies. This study explores the extent to which household spending on alcohol and tobacco combined varies between socio-economic groups and compares this with results for households which purchase only one of the commodities.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of household-level alcohol and tobacco purchasing data.

SETTING

United Kingdom, 2012-17.

PARTICIPANTS/CASES

A total of 26 021 households.

MEASUREMENTS

We analysed transaction-level data from individual 14-day spending diaries in the Living Cost and Food Survey (LCFS). We used this to calculate expenditure, volumes of alcohol and tobacco purchased, and the price paid per unit of alcohol (1 unit = 8 g) and per stick of tobacco. This was compared with equivalized total expenditure and quintiles of equivalized household income. Prices were calibrated and pack sizes were imputed using empirical sales data from Nielsen/CGA to correct for reporting bias.

FINDINGS

Dual purchasing households spent [95% confidence interval] more on alcohol and more on tobacco than their single-purchasing counterparts. In general, lower-income households spent less on both alcohol and tobacco than higher-income households. Furthermore, dual purchasing households in the lowest income group were most exposed to potential increases in price than were other income groups, with (CI = 12.41-13.15%) of their total household budget spent on alcohol and tobacco.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual purchasers of alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom appear to be concentrated evenly among income groups. However, dual purchasers may experience particularly large effects from pricing policies, as they spend a substantially higher proportion of their overall household expenditure on alcohol and tobacco than do households that purchase only one of the commodities.

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in South Africa across different drinker groups and wealth quintiles: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on alcohol consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups and wealth quintiles.

DESIGN

We developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate the effects of MUP across sex, drinker groups (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) and wealth quintiles. Stakeholder interviews and workshops informed model development and ensured policy relevance.

SETTING

South African drinking population aged 15+.

PARTICIPANTS

The population (aged 15+) of South Africa in 2018 stratified by drinking group and wealth quintiles, with a model time horizon of 20 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in standard drinks (SDs) (12 g of ethanol) consumed, weekly spend on alcohol, annual number of cases and deaths for five alcohol-related health conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road injury, liver cirrhosis and breast cancer), reported by drinker groups and wealth quintile.

RESULTS

We estimate an MUP of R10 per SD would lead to an immediate reduction in consumption of 4.40% (-0.93 SD/week) and an increase in spend of 18.09%. The absolute reduction is greatest for heavy drinkers (-1.48 SD/week), followed by occasional binge drinkers (-0.41 SD/week) and moderate drinkers (-0.40 SD/week). Over 20 years, we estimate 20 585 fewer deaths and 9 00 332 cases averted across the five health-modelled harms.Poorer drinkers would see greater impacts from the policy (consumption: -7.75% in the poorest quintile, -3.19% in richest quintile). Among the heavy drinkers, 85% of the cases averted and 86% of the lives saved accrue to the bottom three wealth quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimate that MUP would reduce alcohol consumption in South Africa, improving health outcomes while raising retail and tax revenue. Consumption and harm reductions would be greater in poorer groups.

Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis

BACKGROUND

Deaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10 of 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending 20 November 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.

METHODS

We estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the SD in age at death.

RESULTS

There have been 57 419 (95% prediction interval: 54 197, 60 752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for women and men relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by 5 months for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to-or even fall below-the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.

Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis

BACKGROUND

Deaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10 of 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending 20 November 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.

METHODS

We estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the SD in age at death.

RESULTS

There have been 57 419 (95% prediction interval: 54 197, 60 752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for women and men relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by 5 months for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to-or even fall below-the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.

Estimating the Burden of Alcohol on Ambulance Callouts through Development and Validation of an Algorithm Using Electronic Patient Records

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption places a significant burden on emergency services, including ambulance services, which often represent patients' first, and sometimes only, contact with health services. We aimed to (1) improve the assessment of this burden on ambulance services in Scotland using a low-cost and easy to implement algorithm to screen free-text in electronic patient record forms (ePRFs), and (2) present estimates on the burden of alcohol on ambulance callouts in Scotland.

METHODS

Two paramedics manually reviewed 5416 ePRFs to make a professional judgement of whether they were alcohol-related, establishing a gold standard for assessing our algorithm performance. They also extracted all words or phrases relating to alcohol. An automatic algorithm to identify alcohol-related callouts using free-text in EPRs was developed using these extracts.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a specificity of 0.941 and a sensitivity of 0.996 in detecting alcohol-related callouts. Applying the algorithm to all callout records in Scotland in 2019, we identified 86,780 (16.2%) as alcohol-related. At weekends, this percentage was 18.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-related callouts constitute a significant burden on the Scottish Ambulance Service. Our algorithm is significantly more sensitive than previous methods used to identify alcohol-related ambulance callouts. This approach and the resulting data have potential for the evaluation of alcohol policy interventions as well as for conducting wider epidemiological research.

The effect of alcohol tax changes on retail prices: how do on-trade alcohol retailers pass through tax changes to consumers?

The effectiveness of alcohol duty increases relies on alcohol retailers passing the tax increase on to consumers. This study uses sales data from a market research company to investigate tax pass-through over 11 years for on-premise retailers in England and whether this varies across the price distribution, for different beverage categories and outlet types. Panel data quantile regression analysis is used to estimate the impact of 12 excise duty changes and 3 sales tax changes between 2007 and 2017 on prices. We use product-level quarterly panel data from for 777 alcoholic products. We undertake the regression at all outlets level separating products are analysed in seven broad beverage categories (Beer, Cider, RTDs, Spirits, Wine, Sparkling Wine, and Fortified Wine). We further test sensitivity by disaggregating outlets into seven outlet types. For all seven broad beverage categories, we find that there exists significant differences in tax pass-through across the price distribution. Retailers appear to "undershift" cheaper beverages (prices rise by less than the tax increase) and subsidise this loss in revenue with an "overshift" in the relatively more expensive products. Future modelling of tax change impacts on population subgroups could incorporate this evidence, and this is important because different socio-economic and drinker groups purchase alcohol at different points on the price distribution and hence are affected differently by tax changes. Governments could also potentially incorporate this evidence into future impact assessments.

Potential effects of minimum unit pricing at local authority level on alcohol-attributed harms in North West and North East England: a modelling study

Background

In 2018, Scotland implemented a 50p-per-unit minimum unit price for alcohol. Previous modelling estimated the impact of minimum unit pricing for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Decision-makers want to know the potential effects of minimum unit pricing for local authorities in England; the premise of this study is that estimated effects of minimum unit pricing would vary by locality.

Objective

The objective was to estimate the potential effects on mortality, hospitalisations and crime of the implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level in England.

Design

This was an evidence synthesis, and used computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (local authority version 4.0). This study gathered evidence on local consumption of alcohol from the Health Survey for England, and gathered data on local prices paid from the Living Costs and Food Survey and from market research companies’ actual sales data. These data were linked with local harms in terms of both alcohol-attributable mortality (from the Office for National Statistics) and alcohol-attributable hospitalisations (from Hospital Episode Statistics) for 45 conditions defined by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. These data were examined for eight age–sex groups split by five Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. Alcohol-attributable crime data (Office for National Statistics police-recorded crimes and uplifts for unrecorded offences) were also analysed.

Setting

This study was set in 23 upper-tier local authorities in North West England, 12 upper-tier local authorities in the North East region and nine government office regions, and a national summary was conducted.

Participants

The participants were the population of England aged ≥ 18 years.

Intervention

The intervention was setting a local minimum unit price. The base case is 50p per unit of alcohol. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken using minimum unit prices of 30p, 40p, 60p and 70p per unit of alcohol.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were changes in alcohol-attributable deaths, hospitalisations and crime. Savings in NHS costs, changes in alcohol purchasing and consumption, changes in revenue to off-trade and on-trade retailers and changes in the slope index of inequality between most and least deprived areas were also examined.

Results

The modelling has proved feasible at the upper-tier local authority level. The resulting estimates suggest that minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level could be effective in reducing alcohol-attributable deaths, hospitalisations, NHS costs and crime. A 50p minimum unit price for alcohol at local authority level is estimated to reduce annual alcohol-related deaths in the North West region by 205, hospitalisations by 5956 (–5.5%) and crimes by 8528 (–2.5%). These estimated reductions are mostly due to the 5% of people drinking at high-risk levels (e.g. men drinking > 25 pints of beer or five bottles of wine per week, women drinking > 17 pints of beer or 3.5 bottles of wine per week, and who spend around £2500 per year currently on alcohol). Model estimates of impact are bigger in the North West and North East regions than nationally because, currently, more cheap alcohol is consumed in these regions and because there are more alcohol-related deaths and hospitalisations in these areas. A 30p minimum unit price has estimated effects that are ≈ 90% lower than those of a 50p minimum unit price, and a 40p minimum unit price has estimated effects that are ≈ 50% lower. Health inequalities are estimated to reduce with greater health gains in the deprived areas, where more cheap alcohol is purchased and where there are higher baseline harms.

Limitations

The approach requires synthesis of evidence from multiple sources on alcohol consumption; prices paid; and incidence of diseases, mortality and crime. Price elasticities used are from previous UK analysis of price responsiveness rather than specific to local areas. The study has not estimated ‘cross-border effects’, namely travelling to shops outside the region.

Conclusions

The modelling estimates suggest that minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level would be an effective and well-targeted policy, reducing inequalities.

Future work

The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model for Local Authorities framework could be further utilised to examine the local impact of national policies (e.g. tax changes) or local policies (e.g. licensing or identification and brief advice). As evidence emerges from the Scottish minimum unit price implementation, this will further inform estimates of impact in English localities. The methods used to estimate drinking and purchasing patterns in each local authority could also be used for other topics involving unhealthy products affecting public health, for example to estimate local smoking or high-fat, high-salt food consumption patterns.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the smartphone app, Drink Less, compared with the NHS alcohol advice webpage, for the reduction of alcohol consumption among hazardous and harmful adult drinkers in the UK at 6-month follow-up: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Digital interventions are effective for reducing alcohol consumption but evidence is limited regarding smartphone apps. Drink Less is a theory- and evidence-informed app to help people reduce their alcohol consumption that has been refined in terms of its content and design for usability across the sociodemographic spectrum. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of recommending Drink Less at reducing alcohol consumption compared with usual digital care.

DESIGN

Two-arm individually randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Online trial in the United Kingdom (UK).

PARTICIPANTS

Hazardous or harmful drinkers (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT] score ≥8) aged 18+ who want to drink less alcohol (n = 5562). Participants will be recruited from July 2020 to May 2022 using multiple strategies with a focus on remote digital methods.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Participants will be randomised to receive either an email recommending that they use Drink Less (intervention) or view the National Health Service (NHS) webpage on alcohol advice (comparator).

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome is change in self-reported weekly alcohol consumption, assessed using the extended AUDIT-Consumption, between baseline and 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes include change in self-reported weekly alcohol consumption assessed at 1- and 3-month follow-ups, and the proportion of hazardous drinkers; alcohol-related problems and injury; health-related quality of life; and use of health services assessed at 6-month follow-up. Effectiveness will be examined with adjusted regression models, adjusting for baseline alcohol consumption and using an intention-to-treat approach. A mixed-methods process evaluation will assess engagement, acceptability and mechanism of action. Economic evaluations will be conducted using both a short- and longer-term time horizon.

COMMENTS

This study will establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Drink Less app at reducing alcohol consumption among hazardous and harmful adult drinkers and will be the first randomised controlled trial of an alcohol reduction app for the general population in the United Kingdom. This study will inform the decision on whether it is worth investing resources in large-scale implementation.

The SPECTRUM Consortium: a new UK Prevention Research Partnership consortium focussed on the commercial determinants of health, the prevention of non-communicable diseases, and the reduction of health inequalities

The main causes of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), health inequalities and health inequity include consumption of unhealthy commodities such as tobacco, alcohol and/or foods high in fat, salt and/or sugar. These exposures are preventable, but the commodities involved are highly profitable. The economic interests of 'Unhealthy Commodity Producers' (UCPs) often conflict with health goals but their role in determining health has received insufficient attention. In order to address this gap, a new research consortium has been established. This open letter introduces the SPECTRUM ( S haping  Public h Ealth poli Cies  To  Reduce ineq Ualities and har M)Consortium: a multi-disciplinary group comprising researchers from 10 United Kingdom (UK) universities and overseas, and partner organisations including three national public health agencies in Great Britain (GB), five multi-agency alliances and two companies providing data and analytic support. Through eight integrated work packages, the Consortium seeks to provide an understanding of the nature of the complex systems underlying the consumption of unhealthy commodities, the role of UCPs in shaping these systems and influencing health and policy, the role of systems-level interventions, and the effectiveness of existing and emerging policies. Co-production is central to the Consortium's approach to advance research and achieve meaningful impact and we will involve the public in the design and delivery of our research. We will also establish and sustain mutually beneficial relationships with policy makers, alongside our partners, to increase the visibility, credibility and impact of our evidence. The Consortium's ultimate aim is to achieve meaningful health benefits for the UK population by reducing harm and inequalities from the consumption of unhealthy commodities over the next five years and beyond.

Assessing the contribution of alcohol-specific causes to socio-economic inequalities in mortality in England and Wales 2001-16

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

When measuring inequalities in health, public health and addiction research has tended to focus on differences in average life-span between socio-economic groups. This does not account for the extent to which age of death varies between individuals within socio-economic groups or whether this variation differs between groups. This study assesses (1) socio-economic inequalities in both average life-span and variation in age at death, (2) the extent to which these inequalities can be attributed to alcohol-specific causes (i.e. those attributable only to alcohol) and (3) how this contribution has changed over time.

DESIGN

Cause-deleted life table analysis of national mortality records.

SETTING

England and Wales, 2001-16.

CASES

All-cause and alcohol-specific deaths for all adults aged 18+, stratified by sex, age and quintiles of the index of multiple deprivation (IMD).

MEASUREMENTS

Life expectancy at age 18 yearss and standard deviation in age at death within IMD quintiles and the contribution of alcohol to overall differences in both measures between the highest and lowest IMD quintiles by comparing observed and cause-deleted inequality 'gaps'.

FINDINGS

In 2016, alcohol-specific causes reduced life expectancy for men and women by 0.26 and 0.14 years, respectively, and increased the standard deviation in age at death. These causes also increased the inequality gap in life expectancy by 0.33 years for men and 0.17 years for women, and variation in age at death by 0.14 years and 0.13 years, respectively. For both measures, the contribution of alcohol to mortality inequalities rose after 2001 and subsequently fell back. For women, alcohol accounted for 3.6% of inequality in age at death and 6.0% of life-span uncertainty, suggesting that using only the former may underestimate alcohol-induced inequalities. There was no comparable difference for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Deaths from alcohol-specific causes increase inequalities in both life expectancy and variation in age of death between socio-economic groups. Using both measures can provide a fuller picture of overall inequalities in health.

Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Given the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision-making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework.

DESIGN

Three natural experiments.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Three English local areas of 1000-15 000 people each.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

The case study interventions were (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). Trends in outcomes were compared with synthetic counterfactuals created using Bayesian structural time-series.

MEASUREMENTS

Time-series data were obtained on emergency department admissions, ambulance call-outs and alcohol-related crime at the Lower or Middle Super Output geographical aggregation level.

FINDINGS

Closure of the nightclub led to temporary 4-month reductions in antisocial behaviour (-18%; 95% credible interval - 37%, -4%), with no change in other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub did not lead to measurable changes in outcomes. The new licensing guidance led to small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (nine of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with an increase in domestic violence of two incidents per month.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be evaluated using a causal inference framework. Local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing may have a positive impact on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area.