Clinical prediction rules in community-acquired pneumonia: lies, damn lies and statistics

LncRNA SNHG16 is Downregulated in Pneumonia and Downregulates miR-210 to Promote LPS-Induced Lung Cell Apoptosis

Long non-coding RNA Small Nucleolar RNA Host Gene 16 (SNHG16) has been reported to participate in Lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced inflammatory pathway, which contributes to pneumonia. This study was therefore conducted to explore the role of SNHG16 in pneumonia. In this study, expression of SNHG16 and microRNA (miR)-210 in pneumonia plasma samples (n = 56) and control samples (n = 60) was detected by RT-qPCR. The potential crosstalk between SNHG16 and miR-210 was analyzed by performing overexpression experiments. MSP was performed to study the role of SNHG16 in methylation of miR-210 gene. Cell apoptosis was analyzed by cell apoptosis assay. Decreased expression levels of SNHG16 and increased expression levels of miR-210 were observed in pneumonia. SNHG16 showed an inverse correlation to miR-210. LPS treatment led to downregulated SNHG16 and upregulated miR-210 in Human Bronchial Epithelial Cells (HBEpCs). In HBEpCs, SNHG16 downregulated miR-210 and increased miR-210 DNA gene methylation. Moreover, SNHG16 suppressed the role of miR-210 in cell apoptosis under LPS treatment. In conclusion, SNHG16 is downregulated in pneumonia, and it downregulates miR-210 possibly through methylation to promote lung cell apoptosis induced by LPS.

Cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies against the COVID-19 pandemic

AIM

While the European Union (EU) has approved several COVID-19 vaccines, new variants of concern may be able to escape immunity. The purpose of this study is to project the cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies in conjunction with a variant-adapted vaccine booster. The exemplary scenario foresees a 25% decline in the vaccine protection against severe disease.

METHODS

A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. The costs and benefits of a future lockdown strategy were determined from a societal viewpoint under three future scenarios-a booster shot's efficacy of 0%, 50%, and 95%.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness ratio of a lockdown policy in conjunction with a booster dose with 95% efficacy is €44,214 per life year gained. A lockdown is cost-effective when the probability of approving a booster dose with 95% efficacy is at least 48% (76% when considering uncertainty in input factors).

CONCLUSION

In this exemplary scenario, a future lockdown policy appears to be cost-effective if the probability of approving a variant-adapted vaccine booster with an efficacy of 95% is at least 48%.

Was EU's COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy irrational? A re-analysis based on cost-effectiveness considerations

AIM

The European Union (EU) has received criticism for being slow to secure coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine contracts in 2020 before the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze the EU's COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy. To this end, the study retrospectively determined the minimum vaccine efficacy that made vaccination cost-effective from a societal perspective in Germany before clinical trial announcements in late 2020. The results were compared with the expected vaccine efficacy before the announcements.

METHODS

Two strategies were analyzed: vaccination followed by the complete lifting of mitigation measures and a long-term mitigation strategy. A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit costs and outcomes, and herd protection thresholds. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. Cost-effectiveness of vaccination was determined in terms of the costs per life-year gained. The value of an additional life-year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer is a condition with a perceived threat similar to that of COVID-19.

RESULTS

A vaccine with 50% efficacy against death due to COVID-19 was not clearly cost-effective compared with a long-term mitigation strategy if mitigation measures were planned to be lifted after vaccine rollout. The minimum vaccine efficacy required to achieve cost-effectiveness was 40% in the base case. The sensitivity analysis showed considerable variation around the minimum vaccine efficacy, extending above 50% for some of the input variables.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that vaccine efficacy levels expected before clinical trial announcements did not clearly justify lifting mitigation measures from a cost-effectiveness standpoint. Hence, the EU's sluggish procurement strategy still appeared to be rational at the time of decision making.

Prognostic value of blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio for mortality of pneumonia in patients receiving glucocorticoids: Secondary analysis based on a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies have revealed that blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio (BUN/ALB) is one of major risk factors of mortality in pneumonia. However, there are fewer scientific research about the correlation between BUN/ALB ratio and outcome of pneumonia in patients receiving glucocorticoids. This study was undertaken to explore the prognostic value of BUN/ALB ratio for mortality of pneumonia in patients receiving glucocorticoids.

METHODS

The present study was a retrospective cohort study. 1397 subjects receiving glucocorticoids alone or glucocorticoids and other immunosuppressants from six secondary and tertiary academic hospitals in China were analyzed. The endpoint of the study was 30-day mortality. It was noted that the entire study was completed by Li et al. and uploaded the data to the DATADRYAD website. The author only used this data for secondary analysis.

RESULTS

After adjusting potential confounders (age, sex, WBC, persistent lymphocytopenia, PLT, ALT, AST, Cr, high-dose steroid use, and COPD), non-linear relationship was detected between BUN/ALB ratio and 30-day mortality, whose point was 0.753. The effect sizes and the confidence intervals on the left and right sides of inflection point were 23.110 (7.157, 74.623) and 0.410 (0.074, 2.283), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed the positive association was stronger among subjects with connective tissue disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between BUN/ALB ratio and 30-day mortality of pneumonia in patients receiving glucocorticoids is non-linear. BUN/ALB ratio is positively related with 30-day mortality when BUN/ALB ratio is less than 0.753.

Neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of adverse outcome in patients with community‐acquired pneumonia: A systematic review

Background

Community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the acute infection of lung tissue in an immunocompetent who acquired it from the community. Its incidence and mortality are significant and require a marker to predict the severity and mortality in these patients. Neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a simple, cheap, and easy‐to‐use marker and this study describes its role in predicting the adverse outcome in patients with CAP.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, and Google Scholar were used to search for related studies on February 8, 2021. A total of 186 articles were retrieved upon detailed searching in the databases and search engines. After a series of removing duplicate articles, title and abstract screening, and full‐text review; nine articles were found eligible and included in the study. The data from each article were collected in MS Excel and the findings were summarized in this manuscript.

Results

The total number of patients analyzed in this systematic review is 3340. The mean age of the patient in the included studies ranged from 61 to 90.4 years. All studies had adverse outcomes as the endpoint of the study, which included in‐hospital mortality or intensive care unit (ICU) admission or deterioration from medium and low risk to high risk or 30 days' mortality. The prevalence of endpoint ranged from 5.8% to 44.8%. NLR with a cutoff value of more than 10 was shown to predict mortality compared to C‐reactive protein levels, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte level, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) level, PSI class, procalcitonin, and CURB‐65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 years of age and older) in most of the studies.

Conclusion

NLR is a simple, easily measured yet promising marker for predicting outcomes in patients with CAP.

Value-based pricing of a COVID-19 vaccine

AIM

The purpose of this study is to determine the value-based price of a COVID-19 vaccine from a societal perspective in Germany.

METHODS

A decision model was constructed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and the full vaccination rate. Three strategies were analysed: vaccination (with 95 % and 50 % efficacy against death), a mitigation strategy, and no intervention. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. The value of a vaccine includes savings from avoiding COVID-19 mitigation measures and productivity loss, as well as health benefits from preventing COVID-19 related mortality. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.

RESULTS

A vaccine with a 95 % efficacy dominates the mitigation strategy strictly. The value-based price (€6,431) is thus determined by the comparison between vaccination and no intervention. The price is particularly sensitive to the full vaccination rate and the duration of vaccine protection. In contrast, the value of a vaccine with 50 % efficacy is more ambiguous.

CONCLUSION

This study yields a value-based price for a COVID-19 vaccine with 95 % efficacy, which is considerably greater than the purchasing price.

The clinical and economic value of a successful shutdown during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany

BACKGROUND AND AIM

A shutdown of businesses enacted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can serve different goals, e.g., preventing the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity from being overwhelmed ('flattening the curve') or keeping the reproduction number substantially below one ('squashing the curve'). The aim of this study was to determine the clinical and economic value of a shutdown that is successful in 'flattening' or 'squashing the curve' in Germany.

METHODS

In the base case, the study compared a successful shutdown to a worst-case scenario with no ICU capacity left to treat COVID-19 patients. To this end, a decision model was developed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, ICU outcomes, and the herd protection threshold. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.

RESULTS

A shutdown that is successful in 'flattening the curve' is projected to yield an average health gain between 0.01 and 0.05 life years (0.1 to 0.6 months) per capita in the German population. The corresponding economic value ranges between €616 and €4797 per capita or, extrapolated to the total population, 1%-12% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. A shutdown that is successful in 'squashing the curve' is expected to yield a minimum health gain of 0.08 life years (1 month) per capita, corresponding to 19 % of the GDP in 2019. Results are particularly sensitive to mortality data and the prevalence of undetected cases.

CONCLUSION

A successful shutdown is forecasted to yield a considerable gain in life years in the German population. Nevertheless, questions around the affordability and underfunding of other parts of the healthcare system emerge.

Aetiology and severity of childhood pneumonia in primary care in Malawi: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the aetiology of community acquired pneumonia in children presenting to primary care in Northern Malawi, and to ascertain predictors for identification of children requiring hospitalisation.

DESIGN

The BIOmarkers TO diagnose PnEumonia study was a prospective cohort study conducted from March to June 2016.

SETTING

Primary care in Northern Malawi.

PATIENTS

494 children aged 2 -59 months with WHO defined pneumonia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Number of children with bacterial infection identified and the sensitivity/specificity of WHO markers of severity for need for hospitalisation.

RESULTS

13 (2.6%) children had a bacterium consistent with pneumonia identified. A virus consistent with pneumonia was identified in in 448 (90.7%) of children. 56 children were admitted to hospital and two children died within 30 days. 442 (89.5%) received antibiotic therapy. Eleven children (2.6%) had HIV. WHO severity markers at baseline demonstrated poor sensitivity for the need for hospitalisation with a sensitivity of 0.303 (95% CI 0.188 to 0.441) and a specificity 0.9 (95% CI 0.868 to 0.926). A prediction rule to indicate the need for hospitalisation was developed.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The low rate of bacterial infection and high use of antibiotics in the setting of high immunisation rates highlights the changing profile of childhood pneumonia. Similarly, the markers of need for hospitalisation may have changed in the setting of extended immunisation. Further studies are required to examine this.

How Many Intensive Care Beds are Justifiable for Hospital Pandemic Preparedness? A Cost-effectiveness Analysis for COVID-19 in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Germany is experiencing the second COVID-19 pandemic wave. The intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity is an important consideration in the response to the pandemic. The purpose of this study was to determine the costs and benefits of maintaining or expanding a staffed ICU bed reserve capacity in Germany.

METHODS

This study compared the provision of additional capacity to no intervention from a societal perspective. A decision model was developed using, e.g. information on age-specific fatality rates, ICU costs and outcomes, and the herd protection threshold. The net monetary benefit (NMB) was calculated based upon the willingness to pay for new medicines for the treatment of cancer, a condition with a similar disease burden in the near term.

RESULTS

The marginal cost-effectiveness ratio (MCER) of the last bed added to the existing ICU capacity is €21,958 per life-year gained assuming full bed utilization. The NMB decreases with an additional expansion but remains positive for utilization rates as low as 2%. In a sensitivity analysis, the variables with the highest impact on the MCER were the mortality rates in the ICU and after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

This article demonstrates the applicability of cost-effectiveness analysis to policies of hospital pandemic preparedness and response capacity strengthening. In Germany, the provision of a staffed ICU bed reserve capacity appears to be cost-effective even for a low probability of bed utilization.

Community-acquired Pneumonia and Hospital-acquired Pneumonia

Pneumonia is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most likely cause in most cases, the variety of potential pathogens can make choosing a management strategy a complex endeavor. The setting in which pneumonia is acquired heavily influences diagnostic and therapeutic choices. Because the causative organism is typically unknown early on, timely administration of empiric antibiotics is a cornerstone of pneumonia management. Disease severity and rates of antibiotic resistance should be carefully considered when choosing an empiric regimen. When complications arise, further work-up and consultation with a pulmonary specialist may be necessary.

Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population.

METHODS

Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6).

CONCLUSION

FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP.

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of neutrophil–lymphocyte count ratio in Chinese patients with community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is a common disease associated with high mortality. This retrospective study examined whether the neutrophil–lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), already widely used as an index of inflammation, can be used to predict in-hospital mortality of adults with community-acquired pneumonia. Clinical characteristics, CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index score of pneumonia severity, NLR, serum levels of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin, and in-hospital mortality were analyzed for 318 consecutive adults with community-acquired pneumonia admitted to West China Hospital between July 2012 and December 2013. The ability of NLR and other parameters to predict in-hospital mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results showed that NLR increased with increasing CURB-65 ( P < 0.05) and pneumonia severity index ( P < 0.05), and NLR correlated positively with serum levels of C-reactive protein (r = 0.239, P < 0.05) and procalcitonin (r = 0.211, P < 0.05). The median value of NLR was significantly higher among patients who died in hospital (11.96) than among those who were alive at the end of hospitalization (4.19, P < 0.05). Based on a cut-off NLR of 7.12, this index predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 82.61% and specificity of 72.20% (area under ROC curve, 0.799). Predictive power was greater for the combination of NLR and serum levels of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. These results suggest that NLR may be useful for predicting prognosis in Chinese adults with community-acquired pneumonia, and it may work better in combination with traditional markers.

Moderate efficiency of clinicians' predictions decreased for blurred clinical conditions and benefits from the use of BRASS index. A longitudinal study on geriatric patients' outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Accurate prognosis is an essential aspect of good clinical practice and efficient health services, particularly for chronic and disabling diseases, as in geriatric populations. This study aims to examine the accuracy of clinical prognostic predictions and to devise prediction models combining clinical variables and clinicians' prognosis for a geriatric patient sample.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

In a sample of 329 consecutive older patients admitted to 10 geriatric units, we evaluated the accuracy of clinicians' prognosis regarding three outcomes at discharge: global functioning, length of stay (LoS) in hospital, and destination at discharge (DD). A comprehensive set of sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment-related information were also collected.

RESULTS

Moderate predictive performance was found for all three outcomes: area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 and 0.78 for functioning and LoS, respectively, and moderate concordance, Cohen's K = 0.45, between predicted and observed DD. Predictive models found the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score together with clinicians' judgment relevant to improve predictions for all outcomes (absolute improvement in adjusted and pseudo-R(2) up to 19%).

CONCLUSION

Although the clinicians' estimates were important factors in predicting global functioning, LoS, and DD, more research is needed regarding both methodological aspects and clinical measurements, to improve prognostic clinical indices.