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Furlong M, Adamu A, Hickson RI, Horwood P, Golchin M, Hoskins A, Russell T. Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7120393. [PMID: 36548648 PMCID: PMC9782987 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7120393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morgan Furlong
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Correspondence: (M.F.); (P.H.)
| | - Andrew Adamu
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Roslyn I. Hickson
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Paul Horwood
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Correspondence: (M.F.); (P.H.)
| | - Maryam Golchin
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Andrew Hoskins
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Tanya Russell
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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Damtew YT, Tong M, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Liu J, Dear K, Zhang Y, Morgan G, Driscoll T, Capon T, Bi P. Associations between temperature and Ross river virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence. Acta Trop 2022; 231:106454. [PMID: 35405101 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2022.106454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2022] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Abstract
Ross River virus (RRV) infection is one of the emerging and prevalent arboviral diseases in Australia and the Pacific Islands. Although many studies have been conducted to establish the relationship between temperature and RRV infection, there has been no comprehensive review of the association so far. In this study, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of temperature on RRV transmission. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science with additional lateral searches from references. The quality and strength of evidence from the included studies were evaluated following the Navigation Guide framework. We have qualitatively synthesized the evidence and conducted a meta-analysis to pool the relative risks (RRs) of RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature. Subgroup analyses were performed by climate zones, temperature metrics, and lag periods. A total of 17 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which six were included in the meta-analysis The meta-analysis revealed that the overall RR for the association between temperature and the risk of RRV infection was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.17). Subgroup analyses by climate zones showed an increase in RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature in humid subtropical and cold semi-arid climate zones. The overall quality of evidence was "moderate" and we rated the strength of evidence to be "limited", warranting additional evidence to reduce uncertainty. The results showed that the risk of RRV infection is positively associated with temperature. However, the risk varies across different climate zones, temperature metrics and lag periods. These findings indicate that future studies on the association between temperature and RRV infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic, and environmental factors to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels.
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