The role of genetic sequencing and analysis in the polio eradication programme

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024

Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000-2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020-2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.

Advancing pathogen genomics in resource-limited settings

Genomic sequencing has emerged as a powerful tool to enhance early pathogen detection and characterization with implications for public health and clinical decision making. Although widely available in developed countries, the application of pathogen genomics among low-resource, high-disease burden settings remains at an early stage. In these contexts, tailored approaches for integrating pathogen genomics within infectious disease control programs will be essential to optimize cost efficiency and public health impact. We propose a framework for embedding pathogen genomics within national surveillance plans across a spectrum of surveillance and laboratory capacities. We adopt a public health approach to genomics and examine its application to high-priority diseases relevant in resource-limited settings. For each grouping, we assess the value proposition for genomics to inform public health and clinical decision-making, alongside its contribution toward research and development of novel diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.

Rapid emergence and transmission of virulence-associated mutations in the oral poliovirus vaccine following vaccination campaigns

There is an increasing burden of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) due to the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). However, the informativeness of routine OPV VP1 sequencing for the early identification of viruses carrying virulence-associated reversion mutations has not been directly evaluated in a controlled setting. We prospectively collected 15,331 stool samples to track OPV shedding from children receiving OPV and their contacts for ten weeks following an immunization campaign in Veracruz State, Mexico and sequenced VP1 genes from 358 samples. We found that OPV was genetically unstable and evolves at an approximately clocklike rate that varies across serotypes and by vaccination status. Overall, 61% (11/18) of OPV-1, 71% (34/48) OPV-2, and 96% (54/56) OPV-3 samples with available data had evidence of a reversion at the key 5' UTR attenuating position and 28% (13/47) of OPV-1, 12% (14/117) OPV-2, and 91% (157/173) OPV-3 of Sabin-like viruses had ≥1 known reversion mutations in the VP1 gene. Our results are consistent with previous work documenting rapid reversion to virulence of OPV and underscores the need for intensive surveillance following OPV use.

Sabin polio virus protein 1 (VP1) evolution in patients with acute flaccid paralysis from 2010 to 2016 in Uganda

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is a rare side effect of the oral polio vaccine but can be associated with outbreaks and permanent disability in patients harboring circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). With the advancement of polio abolition in a glimpse, cVDPVs are causing outbreaks and slowing the polio eradication process. The polio virus protein 1 (VP1) contains the binding site that is key for virus transmission. Understanding the evolution of VP1 among AFP patients could yield more insight into the early events of cVDPVs. Polioviruses were identified from stool specimens of AFP patients using cell culture; and confirmed by the real time RT PCR intra-typic differentiation and vaccine-derived poliovirus assays. Seventy-nine (79) Sabin-like poliovirus 1 (SL1) and 86 Sabin-like poliovirus 3 (SL3) were sequenced. The VP1 amino acid substitutions T106A in Sabin poliovirus 1 and A54V in Sabin poliovirus 3 were common among the AFP patients as has been found in previous studies. Other substitutions that were associated with AFP were: T290A and A54T in SL1 and SL3 respectively. Nucleotide mutations that were common among the AFP patients included T402C, C670A, and T816C in SL1, and G22A, C375Y, A472R, and A694T in SL3 polioviruses. Characterizing mutations that are associated with AFP could contribute to efforts pursued to mitigate the risk of vaccine-derived polioviruses and promote development of safer vaccines.

The Fight against Poliovirus Is Not Over

Poliovirus (PV), the virus that causes both acute poliomyelitis and post-polio syndrome, is classified within the Enterovirus C species, and there are three wild PV serotypes: WPV1, WPV2 and WPV3. The launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988 eradicated two of the three serotypes of WPV (WPV2 and WPV3). However, the endemic transmission of WPV1 persists in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2022. There are cases of paralytic polio due to the loss of viral attenuation in the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), known as vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV). Between January 2021 and May 2023, a total of 2141 circulating VDPV (cVDPV) cases were reported in 36 countries worldwide. Because of this risk, inactivated poliovirus (IPV) is being used more widely, and attenuated PV2 has been removed from OPV formulations to obtain bivalent OPV (containing only types 1 and 3). In order to avoid the reversion of attenuated OPV strains, the new OPV, which is more stable due to genome-wide modifications, as well as sabin IPV and virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, is being developed and offers promising solutions for eradicating WP1 and VDPV.

Rapid emergence and transmission of virulence-associated mutations in the oral poliovirus vaccine following vaccination campaigns

There is an increasing burden of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) due to the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). However, the informativeness of routine OPV VP1 sequencing for the early identification of viruses carrying virulence-associated reversion mutations has not been directly evaluated in a controlled setting. We prospectively collected 15,331 stool samples to track OPV shedding from vaccinated children and their contacts for ten weeks following an immunization campaign in Veracruz State, Mexico and sequenced VP1 genes from 358 samples. We found that OPV was genetically unstable and evolves at an approximately clocklike rate that varies across serotypes and by vaccination status. Alarmingly, 28% (13/47) of OPV-1, 12% (14/117) OPV-2, and 91% (157/173) OPV-3 of Sabin-like viruses had ≥1 known reversion mutation. Our results suggest that current definitions of cVDPVs may exclude circulating virulent viruses that pose a public health risk and underscore the need for intensive surveillance following OPV use.

Environmental surveillance for Salmonella Typhi as a tool to estimate the incidence of typhoid fever in low-income populations

Background: The World Health Organisation recommends prioritised use of recently prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccines in countries with the highest incidence of typhoid fever. However, representative typhoid surveillance data are lacking in many low-income countries because of the costs and challenges of diagnostic clinical microbiology. Environmental surveillance (ES) of Salmonella Typhi in sewage and wastewater using molecular methods may offer a low-cost alternative, but its performance in comparison with clinical surveillance has not been assessed. Methods: We developed a harmonised protocol for typhoid ES and its implementation in communities in India and Malawi where it will be compared with findings from hospital-based surveillance for typhoid fever. The protocol includes methods for ES site selection based on geospatial analysis, grab and trap sample collection at sewage and wastewater sites, and laboratory methods for sample processing, concentration and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect Salmonella Typhi. The optimal locations for ES sites based on digital elevation models and mapping of sewage and river networks are described for each community and their suitability confirmed through field investigation. We will compare the prevalence and abundance of Salmonella Typhi in ES samples collected each month over a 12-month period to the incidence of blood culture confirmed typhoid cases recorded at referral hospitals serving the study areas. Conclusions: If environmental detection of Salmonella Typhi correlates with the incidence of typhoid fever estimated through clinical surveillance, typhoid ES may be a powerful and low-cost tool to estimate the local burden of typhoid fever and support the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines. Typhoid ES could also allow the impact of vaccination to be assessed and rapidly identify circulation of drug resistant strains.

Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that caused a major epidemic in the Americas in 2015-2017. Although the majority of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic, the virus has been associated with congenital birth defects and neurological complications (NC) in adults. We combined multiple data sources to improve estimates of ZIKV infection attack rates (IARs), reporting rates of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and the risk of ZIKV-associated NC for 28 capital cities in Colombia. ZVD surveillance data were combined with post-epidemic seroprevalence data and a dataset on ZIKV-associated NC in a Bayesian hierarchical model. We found substantial heterogeneity in ZIKV IARs across cities. The overall estimated ZIKV IAR across the 28 cities was 0.38 (95% CrI: 0.17-0.92). The estimated ZVD reporting rate was 0.013 (95% CrI: 0.004-0.024), and 0.51 (95% CrI: 0.17-0.92) cases of ZIKV-associated NC were estimated to be reported per 10 000 ZIKV infections. When we assumed the same ZIKV IAR across sex or age group, we found important spatial heterogeneities in ZVD reporting rates and the risk of being reported as a ZVD case with NC. Our results highlight how additional data sources can be used to overcome biases in surveillance data and estimate key epidemiological parameters.

Outbreaks of Circulating Vaccine-derived Poliovirus in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region, 2000-2021

The World Health Organization Western Pacific Region (WPR) has maintained the polio-free status for more than two decades. At the global level, there were only 6 confirmed polio cases due to wild type 1 poliovirus in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Malawi in 2021, therefore, the risk of the importation of wild poliovirus from the endemic countries to the WPR is considerably lower than ever before. On the other hand, the risk of polio outbreaks associated with circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) still cannot be ignored even in the WPR. Since late 2010s, cVDPV outbreaks in the WPR have appeared to be more extensive in frequency and magnitude. Moreover, the emergence of concomitant polio outbreaks of type 1 and type 2 cVDPVs in the Philippines and Malaysia during 2019-2020 has highlighted the remaining risk of cVDPV outbreaks in high-risk areas and/or communities in the WPR. The previous cVDPV outbreaks in the WPR have been rapidly and effectively controlled, however, the future risk of polio outbreaks associated with cVDPVs needs to be reconsidered and polio immunization and surveillance strategies should be updated accordingly.

Spatial analysis of genetic clusters and epidemiologic factors related to wild poliovirus type 1 persistence in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Following the certification of the World Health Organization Region of Africa as free of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) in 2020, Afghanistan and Pakistan represent the last remaining WPV1 reservoirs. As efforts continue in these countries to progress to eradication, there is an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and epidemiological risk factors associated with continual WPV1 circulation in the region. Using poliovirus surveillance data from 2017-2019, we used pairwise comparisons of VP1 nucleotide sequences to illustrate the spatiotemporal WPV1 dispersal to identify key sources and destinations of potentially infected, highly mobile populations. We then predicted the odds of WPV1 detection at the district level using a generalized linear model with structural indicators of health, security, environment, and population demographics. We identified evidence of widespread population mobility based on WPV1 dispersal within and between the countries, and evidence indicating five districts in Afghanistan (Arghandab, Batikot, Bermel, Muhamandara and Nawzad) and four districts in Pakistan (Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Killa Abdullah and Khyber) act as cross-border WPV1 circulation reservoirs. We found that the probability of detecting WPV1 in a district increases with each armed conflict event (OR = 1·024, +- 0·008), level of food insecurity (OR = 1·531, +-0·179), and mean degrees Celsius during the months of greatest precipitation (OR = 1·079, +- 0·019). Our results highlight the multidisciplinary complexities contributing to the continued transmission of WPV1 in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We discuss the implications of our results, stressing the value of coordination during this final chapter of the wild polio virus eradication initiative.

The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.

Next-Generation Sequencing for Confronting Virus Pandemics

Virus pandemics have happened, are happening and will happen again. In recent decades, the rate of zoonotic viral spillover into humans has accelerated, mirroring the expansion of our global footprint and travel network, including the expansion of viral vectors and the destruction of natural spaces, bringing humans closer to wild animals. Once viral cross-species transmission to humans occurs, transmission cannot be stopped by cement walls but by developing barriers based on knowledge that can prevent or reduce the effects of any pandemic. Controlling a local transmission affecting few individuals is more efficient that confronting a community outbreak in which infections cannot be traced. Genetic detection, identification, and characterization of infectious agents using next-generation sequencing (NGS) has been proven to be a powerful tool allowing for the development of fast PCR-based molecular assays, the rapid development of vaccines based on mRNA and DNA, the identification of outbreaks, transmission dynamics and spill-over events, the detection of new variants and treatment of vaccine resistance mutations, the development of direct-acting antiviral drugs, the discovery of relevant minority variants to improve knowledge of the viral life cycle, strengths and weaknesses, the potential for becoming dominant to take appropriate preventive measures, and the discovery of new routes of viral transmission.

The Molecular Evolution of Type 2 Vaccine-Derived Polioviruses in Individuals with Primary Immunodeficiency Diseases

The oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), which prevents person-to-person transmission of poliovirus by inducing robust intestinal immunity, has been a crucial tool for global polio eradication. However, polio outbreaks, mainly caused by type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2), are increasing worldwide. Meanwhile, immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) is considered another risk factor during the final stage of global polio eradication. Patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases are associated with higher risks for long-term iVDPV infections. Although a limited number of chronic iVDPV excretors were reported, the recent identification of a chronic type 2 iVDPV (iVDPV2) excretor in the Philippines highlights the potential risk of inapparent iVDPV infection for expanding cVDPV outbreaks. Further research on the genetic characterizations and molecular evolution of iVDPV2, based on comprehensive iVDPV surveillance, will be critical for elucidating the remaining risk of iVDPV2 during the post-OPV era.

Rapid and Sensitive Direct Detection and Identification of Poliovirus from Stool and Environmental Surveillance Samples by Use of Nanopore Sequencing

Global poliovirus surveillance involves virus isolation from stool and environmental samples, intratypic differential (ITD) by PCR, and sequencing of the VP1 region to distinguish vaccine (Sabin), vaccine-derived, and wild-type polioviruses and to ensure an appropriate response. This cell culture algorithm takes 2 to 3 weeks on average between sample receipt and sequencing. Direct detection of viral RNA using PCR allows faster detection but has traditionally faced challenges related to poor sensitivity and difficulties in sequencing common samples containing poliovirus and enterovirus mixtures.

Global poliovirus surveillance involves virus isolation from stool and environmental samples, intratypic differential (ITD) by PCR, and sequencing of the VP1 region to distinguish vaccine (Sabin), vaccine-derived, and wild-type polioviruses and to ensure an appropriate response. This cell culture algorithm takes 2 to 3 weeks on average between sample receipt and sequencing. Direct detection of viral RNA using PCR allows faster detection but has traditionally faced challenges related to poor sensitivity and difficulties in sequencing common samples containing poliovirus and enterovirus mixtures. We present a nested PCR and nanopore sequencing protocol that allows rapid (<3 days) and sensitive direct detection and sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples. We developed barcoded primers and a real-time analysis platform that generate accurate VP1 consensus sequences from multiplexed samples. The sensitivity and specificity of our protocol compared with those of cell culture were 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7% to 98.1%) and 99.2% (95.5% to 100.0%) for wild-type 1 poliovirus, 92.5% (79.6% to 98.4%) and 98.7% (95.4% to 99.8%) for vaccine and vaccine-derived serotype 2 poliovirus, and 88.3% (81.2% to 93.5%) and 93.2% (88.6% to 96.3%) for Sabin 1 and 3 poliovirus alone or in mixtures when tested on 155 stool samples in Pakistan. Variant analysis of sequencing reads also allowed the identification of polioviruses and enteroviruses in artificial mixtures and was able to distinguish complex mixtures of polioviruses in environmental samples. The median identity of consensus nanopore sequences with Sanger or Illumina sequences from the same samples was >99.9%. This novel method shows promise as a faster and safer alternative to cell culture for the detection and real-time sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples.