The arc of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: new challenges with concentrating epidemics in the era of 90-90-90

Reaching for 90:90:90 in Correctional Facilities in South Africa and Zambia: Virtual Cross-Section of Coverage of HIV Testing and Antiretroviral Therapy During Universal Test and Treat Implementation

BACKGROUND

People in correctional settings are a key population for HIV epidemic control. We sought to demonstrate scale-up of universal test and treat in correctional facilities in South Africa and Zambia through a virtual cross-sectional analysis.

METHODS

We used routine data on 2 dates: At the start of universal test and treat implementation (time 1, T1) and 1 year later (time 2, T2). We obtained correctional facility census lists for the selected dates and matched HIV testing and treatment data to generate virtual cross-sections of HIV care continuum indicators.

RESULTS

In the South African site, there were 4193 and 3868 people in the facility at times T1 and T2; 43% and 36% were matched with HIV testing or treatment data, respectively. At T1 and T2, respectively, 1803 (43%) and 1386 (36%) had known HIV status, 804 (19%) and 845 (21%) were known to be living with HIV, and 60% and 56% of those with known HIV were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). In the Zambian site, there were 1467 and 1366 people in the facility at times T1 and T2; 58% and 92% were matched with HIV testing or treatment data, respectively. At T1 and T2, respectively, 857 (59%) and 1263 (92%) had known HIV status, 277 (19%) and 647 (47%) were known to be living with HIV, and 68% and 68% of those with known HIV were receiving ART.

CONCLUSIONS

This virtual cross-sectional analysis identified gaps in HIV testing coverage, and ART initiation that was not clearly demonstrated by prior cohort-based studies.

HIV-1 pretreatment and acquired antiretroviral drug resistance before tenofovir/ /lamivudine /dolutegravir (TLD) roll-out in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that HIV treatment scale-up is accompanied by a robust assessment of drug resistance emergence and transmission. The WHO HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) monitoring and surveillance strategy includes HIVDR testing in adults both initiating and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Due to limited information about HIVDR in Mozambique, we conducted two nationally representative surveys of adults initiating and receiving first-line ART regimes to better inform the HIV program.

METHODS

We carried out a cross-sectional study between March 2017 and December 2019. Adults (older than 15 years) living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating ART or receiving first-line ART for between 9-15 months at 25 health facilities across all eleven provinces in Mozambique were included. Genotypic HIVDR was assessed on dried blood spots (DBS) when viral loads were  ≥ 1000 copies/ml. Genotypic resistance for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was determined using the Stanford HIV database algorithm 9.5 and calibrated population resistance tool 8.1.

RESULTS

Of 828 participants -enrolled, viral load (VL) testing was performed on 408 initiators and 409 ART experienced. Unsuppressed VL was found in 68.1% 419 initiators and 18.8% (77/409) of the ART experienced. Of the 278 initiators and 70 ART experienced who underwent sequencing, 51.7% (144/278) and 75.7% (53/70) were sequenced successfully. Among the new initiators, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) for NNRTI and PI was found in 16.0% (23/144) and 1.4% (2/144) of the participants, respectively. Acquired drug resistance (ADR) was found in 56.5% (30/53) of the ART-experienced participants of whom 24.5% (13/53) were resistant to both NRTI and NNRTI.

CONCLUSION

High rates of PDR and ADR for NNRTI and ADR for NRTI were observed in our study. These findings support the replacement of NNRTIs with dolutegravir (DTG) but high levels of NRTI resistance in highly treatment-experienced individuals still require attention when transitioning to new regimens. Moreover, the study underlines the need for routine VL testing and HIVDR surveillance to improve treatment management strategies.

Prescription of HIV Post-Exposure Prophylaxis in emergency care units and return for follow-up appointments in specialized services in Salvador, Brazil, 2018: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze HIV Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) prescription and return for follow-up appointments.

METHODS

This was a descriptive cross-sectional study using data on people who sought PEP in emergency care units (UPAs) and specialized medical services in Salvador, BA, Brazil, between January-December/2018.

RESULTS

Of the 1,525 people who sought PEP at UPAs, 1,273 (83.5%) met PEP eligibility criteria, while 252 (16.5%) did not; of the eligible group, 1,166 (91.6%) had antiretrovirals prescribed, while 107 (8.4%) eligible people did not; of the total number of people with PEP prescriptions, only 226 (19.4%) returned for the first follow-up appointment, 115 (9.9%) for the second, and 33 (2.8%) for the third in order to complete the protocol.

CONCLUSION

We found a significant proportion of eligible users who did not have PEP prescribed at UPAs and a significant loss of return for specialized service follow-up appointments.

Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa displays a varied geographical distribution, with particular regions termed as HIV hotspots due to a higher prevalence of infection. Addressing these hotspots is essential for controlling the epidemic. However, these regions, influenced by historical factors, challenge standard interventions. Legacy effects-the lasting impact of past events-play a substantial role in the persistence of these hotspots. To address this challenge of the standard interventions, we propose a shift towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. Spatial analysis of HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy coverage can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the epidemic's dynamics. Studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe, using this approach, have revealed disparities in HIV care metrics across regions. By focusing on the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, more effective control strategies can be designed, with consideration of both historical and current factors. This approach would offer a solution-oriented strategy, emphasising tailored interventions based on specific regional needs.

Neuropsychological tests associated with symptomatic HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) in a cohort of older adults in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) prevalence is expected to increase in East Africa as treatment coverage increases, survival improves, and this population ages. This study aimed to better understand the current cognitive phenotype of this newly emergent population of older combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-treated people living with HIV (PLWH), in which current screening measures lack accuracy. This will facilitate the refinement of HAND cognitive screening tools for this setting.

METHOD

This is a secondary analysis of 253 PLWH aged ≥50 years receiving standard government HIV clinic follow-up in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. They were evaluated with a detailed locally normed low-literacy neuropsychological battery annually on three occasions and a consensus panel diagnosis of HAND by Frascati criteria based on clinical evaluation and collateral history.

RESULTS

Tests of verbal learning and memory, categorical verbal fluency, visual memory, and visuoconstruction had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.7 for symptomatic HAND (s-HAND) (0.70-0.72; p < 0.001 for all tests). Tests of visual memory, verbal learning with delayed recall and recognition memory, psychomotor speed, language comprehension, and categorical verbal fluency were independently associated with s-HAND in a logistic mixed effects model (p < 0.01 for all). Neuropsychological impairments varied by educational background.

CONCLUSIONS

A broad range of cognitive domains are affected in older, well-controlled, East African PLWH, including those not captured in widely used screening measures. It is possible that educational background affects the observed cognitive impairments in this setting. Future screening measures for similar populations should consider assessment of visual memory, verbal learning, language comprehension, and executive and motor function.

New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation

BACKGROUND

Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data.

METHODS

Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups. Transmission models used were Goals (71 countries), AIDS Epidemic Model (13 Asian countries), Optima (9 European and Central Asian countries), and Thembisa (South Africa). Statistical Estimation and Projection Package fits were used for 15 countries. For 40 countries, new infections in 1 or more KPs were approximated from first-time diagnoses by the mode of transmission. Infection proportions among nonclient partners came from Goals, Optima, AIDS Epidemic Model, and Thembisa. For remaining countries and groups not represented in models, median proportions by KP were extrapolated from countries modeled within the same region.

RESULTS

Across 172 countries, estimated proportions of new adult infections in 2010 and 2022 were both 7.7% for SW, 11% and 20% for MSM, 0.72% and 1.1% for TGW, 6.8% and 8.0% for PWID, 12% and 10% for clients, and 5.3% and 8.2% for nonclient partners. In sub-Saharan Africa, proportions of new HIV infections decreased among SW, clients, and non-KP partners but increased for PWID; elsewhere these groups' 2010-to-2022 differences were opposite. For MSM and TGW, the proportions increased across all regions.

CONCLUSIONS

KPs continue to have disproportionately high HIV incidence.

Stand-alone model for delivery of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in Kenya: a single-arm, prospective pilot evaluation

INTRODUCTION

The delivery of daily, oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) at private pharmacies may overcome barriers to PrEP delivery at public healthcare facilities, including HIV-associated stigma, long wait times and overcrowding.

METHODS

At five private, community-based pharmacies in Kenya, a care pathway for PrEP delivery (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04558554) was piloted-the first of its kind in Africa. Pharmacy providers screened clients interested in PrEP for HIV risk, then used a prescribing checklist to identify clients without medical conditions that might contraindicate PrEP safety, counsel them on PrEP use and safety, conduct provider-assisted HIV self-testing and dispense PrEP. For complex clinical cases, a remote clinician was available for consultation. Clients who did not meet the checklist criteria were referred to public facilities for free services delivered by clinicians. Pharmacy providers dispensed a 1-month PrEP supply at initiation and a 3-month supply thereafter at a client fee of 300 KES (∼$3 USD) per visit.

RESULTS

From November 2020 to October 2021, pharmacy providers screened 575 clients, identified 476 who met the prescribing checklist criteria and initiated 287 (60%) on PrEP. Among pharmacy PrEP clients, the median age was 26 years (IQR 22-33) and 57% (163/287) were male. The prevalence of behaviours associated with HIV risk among clients was high; 84% (240/287) reported sexual partners with unknown HIV status and 53% (151/287) reported multiple sexual partners (past 6 months). PrEP continuation among clients was 53% (153/287) at 1 month, 36% (103/287) at 4 months and 21% (51/242) at 7 months. During the pilot observation period, 21% (61/287) of clients stopped and restarted PrEP and overall pill coverage was 40% (IQR 10%-70%). Nearly, all pharmacy PrEP clients (≥96%) agreed or strongly agreed with statements regarding the acceptability and appropriateness of pharmacy-delivered PrEP services.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this pilot suggest that populations at HIV risk frequently visit private pharmacies and PrEP initiation and continuation at pharmacies is similar to or exceeds that at public healthcare facilities. Private pharmacy-based PrEP delivery, conducted entirely by private-sector pharmacy staff, is a promising new delivery model that has the potential to expand PrEP reach in Kenya and similar settings.

Assessing preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) delivery services via online pharmacies in Kenya: protocol for a discrete choice experiment

INTRODUCTION

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective at preventing HIV acquisition, but coverage remains low in high prevalence settings. Initiating and continuing PrEP via online pharmacies is a promising strategy to expand PrEP uptake but little is known about user preferences for this strategy. We describe methods for a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to assess preferences for PrEP delivery from an online pharmacy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This cross-sectional study is conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, in partnership with MYDAWA, a private online pharmacy retailer with a planned sample size of >400 participants. Eligibility criteria are: ≥18 years, not known HIV-positive and interested in PrEP. Initial DCE attributes and levels were developed via literature review and stakeholder meetings. We conducted cognitive interviews to assess participant understanding of the DCE survey and refined the design. The final DCE used a D-efficient design and contained four attributes: PrEP eligibility assessment, HIV test type, clinical consultation type and user support options. Participants are presented with eight scenarios consisting of two hypothetical PrEP delivery services. The survey was piloted among 20 participants before being advertised on the MYDAWA website on pages displaying products indicating HIV risk (eg, HIV self-test kits). Interested participants call a study number and those screened eligible meet a research assistant in a convenient location to complete the survey. The DCE will be analysed using a conditional logit model to assess average preferences and mixed logit and latent class models to evaluate preference heterogeneity among subgroups.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the University of Washington Human Research Ethics Committee (STUDY00014011), the Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi County (EOP/NMS/HS/128) and the Scientific and Ethics Review Unit in Kenya (KEMRI/RES/7/3/1). Participation in the DCE is voluntary and subject to completion of an electronic informed consent. Findings will be shared at international conferences and peer-reviewed publications, and via engagement meetings with stakeholders.

Global, regional, and national HIV/AIDS disease burden levels and trends in 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study

Background

Since the first HIV/AIDS case appeared in 1980s, HIV/AIDS has been the focus of international attention. As a major public health problem, there are epidemiological uncertainties about the future of HIV/AIDS. It is important to monitor the global statistics of HIV/AIDS prevalence, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors for adequate prevention and control.

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database was used to analyze the burden of HIV/AIDS in 1990-2019. By extracting global, regional, and national data on HIV/AIDS prevalence, deaths, and DALYs, we described the distribution by age and sex, explored the risk factors, and analyzed the trends in HIV/AIDS.

Results

In 2019, there were 36.85 million HIV/AIDS cases (95% UI: 35.15-38.86 million), 863.84 thousand deaths (95% UI: 78.61-99.60 thousand), and 47.63 million (95% UI: 42.63-55.65 million) DALYs. The global age-standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, death, and DALY rates were 454.32 (95% UI: 433.76-478.59), 10.72 (95% UI: 9.70-12.39), and 601.49 (95% UI: 536.16-703.92) per 100,000 cases, respectively. In 2019, the global age-standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, death, and DALY rates increased by 307.26 (95% UI: 304.45-312.63), 4.34 (95% UI: 3.78-4.90), and 221.91 (95% UI: 204.36-239.47) per 100,000 cases, respectively, compared to 1990. Age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates decreased in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas. High age-standardized rates were observed in low sociodemographic index areas, while low age-standardized rates were observed in high sociodemographic index areas. In 2019, the high age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates were predominant in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, and global DALYs peaked in 2004 and subsequently decreased. The highest global HIV/AIDS DALYs were in the 40-44 age group. The main risk factors affecting HIV/AIDS DALY rates included behavioral risks, drug use, partner violence, and unsafe sex.

Conclusions

HIV/AIDS disease burden and risk factors vary by region, sex, and age. As access to health care increases across countries and treatment for HIV/AIDS infection improves, the HIV/AIDS disease burden is concentrated in areas with low SDIs, particularly in South Africa. Regional differences should be fully considered to target optimal prevention strategies and treatment options based on risk factors.

The effectiveness, feasibility and acceptability of HIV service delivery at private pharmacies in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Private pharmacies are an understudied setting for differentiated delivery of HIV services that may address barriers to clinic-delivered services, such as stigma and long wait times. To understand the potential for pharmacy-delivered HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa, we conducted a scoping review of the published and grey literature.

METHODS

Using a modified Cochrane approach, we searched electronic databases through March 2022 and HIV conference abstracts in the past 5 years for studies that: (1) focused on the delivery of HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and/or pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) at private pharmacies in sub-Saharan Africa; (2) reported on effectiveness outcomes (e.g. HIV incidence) or implementation outcomes, specifically feasibility and/or acceptability; and (3) were published in English. Two authors identified studies and extracted data on study setting, population, design, outcomes and findings by HIV service type.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Our search identified 1646 studies. After screening and review, we included 28 studies: seven on HIV testing, nine on ART delivery and 12 on PrEP delivery. Most studies (n = 16) were conducted in East Africa, primarily in Kenya. Only two studies evaluated effectiveness outcomes; the majority (n = 26) reported on feasibility and/or acceptability outcomes. The limited effectiveness data (n = 2 randomized trials) suggest that pharmacy-delivered HIV services can increase demand and result in comparable clinical outcomes (e.g. viral load suppression) to standard-of-care clinic-based models. Studies assessing implementation outcomes found actual and hypothetical models of pharmacy-delivered HIV services to be largely feasible (e.g. high initiation and continuation) and acceptable (e.g. preferable to facility-based models and high willingness to pay/provide) among stakeholders, providers and clients. Potential barriers to implementation included a lack of pharmacy provider training on HIV service delivery, costs to clients and providers, and perceived low quality of care.

CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence suggests that pharmacy-delivered HIV services may be feasible to implement and acceptable to clients and providers in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited evidence outside East Africa exists, as does limited evidence on the effectiveness of and costs associated with pharmacy-delivered HIV services. More research of this nature is needed to inform the scale-up of this new differentiated service delivery model throughout the region.

Risk heterogeneity in compartmental HIV transmission models of ART as prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Transmission models provide complementary evidence to clinical trials about the potential population-level incidence reduction attributable to ART (ART prevention impact). Different modelling assumptions about risk heterogeneity may influence projected ART prevention impacts. We sought to review representations of risk heterogeneity in compartmental HIV transmission models applied to project ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies published before January 2020 that used non-linear compartmental models of sexual HIV transmission to simulate ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. We summarized data on model structure/assumptions (factors) related to risk and intervention heterogeneity, and explored multivariate ecological associations of ART prevention impacts with modelled factors.

RESULTS

Of 1384 search hits, 94 studies were included. 64 studies considered sexual activity stratification and 39 modelled at least one key population. 21 studies modelled faster/slower ART cascade transitions (HIV diagnosis, ART initiation, or cessation) by risk group, including 8 with faster and 4 with slower cascade transitions among key populations versus the wider population. In ecological analysis of 125 scenarios from 40 studies (subset without combination intervention), scenarios with risk heterogeneity that included turnover of higher risk groups were associated with smaller ART prevention benefits. Modelled differences in ART cascade across risk groups also influenced the projected ART benefits, including: ART prioritized to key populations was associated with larger ART prevention benefits. Of note, zero of these 125 scenarios considered lower ART coverage among key populations.

CONCLUSION

Among compartmental transmission models applied to project ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa, representations of risk heterogeneity and projected impacts varied considerably. Inclusion/exclusion of risk heterogeneity with turnover, and intervention heterogeneity across risk groups could influence the projected impacts of ART scale-up. These findings highlight a need to capture risk heterogeneity with turnover and cascade heterogeneity when projecting ART prevention impacts.

Using routine programmatic data to measure HIV incidence among pregnant women in Botswana

INTRODUCTION

Pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa have high risk of HIV acquisition, yet approaches for measuring maternal HIV incidence using routine surveillance systems are undefined. We used programmatic data from routine antenatal care (ANC) HIV testing in Botswana to measure real-world HIV incidence during pregnancy.

METHODS

From January 2018 to September 2019, the Botswana Ministry of Health and Wellness implemented an HIV testing program at 139 ANC clinics. The program captured information on testers' age, testing date and result, and antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. In our analysis, we excluded individuals who previously tested HIV-positive prior to their first ANC visit. We defined incident HIV infection as testing HIV-positive at an ANC visit after a prior HIV-negative result within ANC.

RESULTS

Overall, 29,570 pregnant women (median age 26 years, IQR 22-31) tested for HIV at ANC clinics: 3% (836) tested HIV-positive at their first recorded ANC visit and 97% tested HIV-negative (28,734). Of those who tested HIV-negative, 28% (7940/28,734) had a repeat HIV test recorded at ANC. The median time to HIV re-testing was 92 days (IQR 70-112). In total, 17 previously undiagnosed HIV infections were detected (HIV incidence 8 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0.5-1.3). ART initiation among women newly diagnosed with HIV at ANC (853) was 88% (671/762).

CONCLUSIONS

In Botswana, real-world HIV incidence among pregnant women at ANC remains above levels of HIV epidemic control (≤ 1 per 1000 person-years). This study shows how HIV programmatic data can answer timely population-level epidemiological questions and inform ongoing implementation of HIV prevention and treatment programs.

High willingness to use injectable antiretroviral therapy among women who have been lost to follow-up from HIV programmes: A nested cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Efforts to achieve zero transmission of HIV to infants born to women living with HIV in sub-Saharan African are undermined by high rates of loss to follow-up in prevention of vertical transmission (PVT) programmes. The fear of HIV status disclosure through the discovery of pill bottles at home is a major contributor. Injectable antiretroviral therapy (ART) has proved to be efficacious in clinical trials and is discreet, offering a potential solution. We investigated the knowledge and willingness to use injectable ART among women who were lost to follow-up from the PVT programme in Uganda.

METHODS

Women were traced by nurse counsellors and knowledge and opinions relating to injectable ART, including willingness to use it when it becomes available, were collected. Generalized linear models were used to determine predictors of willingness to use injectable ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Among 1023 women registered between 2017 and 2019 under the PVT programmes in Kampala and Wakiso districts, Uganda, 385 (38%) were lost to follow-up from care and 22% of these (83/385) were successfully traced and interviewed. Only 25% (21/83) had heard of injectable ART. Over half (55%, 46/83) were very willing to use injectable ART, 40% (33/83) were somewhat willing and four (5%) were not willing. Those who associated ART tablets with disclosure risk were more willing to consider injectable ART (adjusted odds ratio = 4.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.45-12.19; p = 0.008). We report high willingness to use injectable ART associated with fears that ART tablets were a potential source of HIV status disclosure. Injectable ART could be a solution for women who have challenges with disclosure.

Point-of-care CD4 testing: Differentiated care for the most vulnerable

Background

South Africa, with the highest burden of HIV infection globally, has made huge strides in its HIV/ART programme, but AIDS deaths have not decreased proportionally to ART uptake. Advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200 cells/mm³) persists, and CD4 count testing is being overlooked since universal test-and-treat was implemented. Point-of-care CD4 testing could address this gap and assure differentiated care to these vulnerable patients with low CD4 counts.

Methods

A time randomised implementation trial was conducted, enrolling 603 HIV positive non-ART, not pregnant patients at a primary health care clinic in Durban, South Africa. Weeks were randomised to either point-of-care CD4 testing (n = 305 patients) or standard-of-care central laboratory CD4 testing (n = 298 patients) to assess the proportion initiating ART at 3 months. Cox regression, with robust standard errors adjusting for clustering by week, were used to assess the relationship between treatment initiation and arm.

Results

Among the 578 (299 point-of-care and 279 standard-of-care) patients eligible for analysis, there was no significant difference in the number of eligible patients initiating ART within 3 months in the point-of-care (73%) and the standard-of-care (68%) groups (P = 0.112). The time-to-treat analysis was not significantly different in patients with CD4 counts of 201-500 cells/mm³ which could have been due to appointment scheduling to cope with the large burden of cases. However, in patients with advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200cells/mm³) 65% more patients started ART earlier in the point-of-care group (HR 1.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.99-2.75; P = 0.052) compared to the standard-of-care group.

Conclusions

Point-of-care testing decreased time-to-treatment in those with advanced HIV disease. With universal test and treat for HIV, rollout of simple point-of-care CD4 testing would ensure early diagnosis of advanced HIV disease and facilitate differentiated care for these vulnerable patients as per the World Health Organisation 2020 target product profile for point-of-care CD4 testing.

Trial registration

ISRCTN14220457.

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.

METHODS

To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress.

INTERPRETATION

Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Intersectional stigma and its impact on HIV prevention and care among MSM and WSW in sub-Saharan African countries: a protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Research has established that various forms of stigma (HIV stigma, gender non-conforming stigma and same-gender sex stigma) exist across Sub-Saharan Africa and have consequences for the utilisation of HIV prevention and care services. Stigmas are typically investigated in HIV literature individually or through investigating individual populations and the various stigmas they may face. The concept of intersectionality highlights the interconnected nature of social categorisations and their ability to create interdependent systems of discrimination based on gender, race, sexuality and so on. Drawing from perspectives on intersectionality, intersectional stigma denotes the convergence of multiple marginalised identities within an individual or a group, the experiences of stigma associated with these identities as well as the synergistic impact of these experiences on health and well-being. With respect to HIV, public health scholars can examine the impacts of intersectional stigmas on HIV prevention and care utilisation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Reviewers will search systematically through MEDLINE, Global Health, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science Core Collection and Africa Index Medicus and citations for quantitative studies, qualitative studies and grey literature that include data on stigma and HIV among men who have sex with men and women who have sex with women in Sub-Saharan Africa. Eligible studies will include primary or secondary data on stigma related to HIV risk factors experienced by this population. Studies will be written in French or English and be published between January 1991 and November 2020. All screening and data extraction will be performed in duplicate, and if discrepancies arise, they will be settled by GM'RA, LEN, DD or AO. Findings from this study will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required as there will be no human participants and no protected data will be used in this study. We will disseminate findings through peer-reviewed manuscripts, conferences and webinars.

Community-based health workers implementing universal access to HIV testing and treatment: lessons from South Africa and Zambia-HPTN 071 (PopART)

The global expansion of HIV testing, prevention and treatment services is necessary to achieve HIV epidemic control and promote individual and population health benefits for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Community-based health workers (CHWs) could play a key role in supporting implementation at scale. In the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in Zambia and South Africa, a cadre of 737 study-specific CHWs, working closely with government-employed CHW, were deployed to deliver a ‘universal’ door-to-door HIV prevention package, including an annual offer of HIV testing and referral services for all households in 14 study communities. We conducted a process evaluation using qualitative and quantitative data collected during the trial (2013–2018) to document the implementation of the CHW intervention in practice. We focused on the recruitment, retention, training and support of CHWs, as they delivered study-specific services. We then used these descriptions to: (i) analyse the fidelity to design of the delivery of the intervention package, and (ii) suggest key insights for the transferability of the intervention to other settings. The data included baseline quantitative data collected with the study-specific CHWs (2014–2018); and qualitative data from key informant interviews with study management (n = 91), observations of CHW training events (n = 12) and annual observations of and group discussions (GD) with intervention staff (n = 68). We show that it was feasible for newly recruited CHWs to implement the PopART intervention with good fidelity, supporting the interpretation of the trial outcome findings. This was despite some challenges in managing service quality and CHW retention in the early years of the programme. We suggest that by prioritizing the adoption of key elements of the in-home HIV services delivery intervention model—including training, emotional support to workers, monitoring and appropriate remuneration for CHWs—these services could be successfully transferred to new settings.

Bringing HIV services to key populations and their communities in Tanzania: from pilot to scale

INTRODUCTION

Despite the global scale-up of HIV testing, prevention and treatment, these services remain inaccessible to groups most vulnerable to HIV. Globally, most new HIV infections are concentrated among members of key populations (KP), including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people, people who inject drugs and their sexual partners. These populations lag in access to HIV prevention and antiretroviral therapy (ART) and have less favourable HIV outcomes compared to the general population. Intersecting behavioural and structural factors contribute to these gaps in service access for at-risk KP and those living with HIV; corresponding comprehensive approaches to improving service delivery for KP are urgently needed. Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models tailor HIV programmes to the needs and preferences of specific groups but are rarely implemented at scale for KP. We describe the FIKIA Project, which implemented innovative approaches to scaling up DSD models to reach and engage KP in Tanzania.

METHODS

The FIKIA Project worked with diverse KP communities in Tanzania to tailor HIV services to their needs and to pair healthcare workers with trained peer educators and expert client counsellors to expand uptake of community-based HIV testing and ART services. We analysed routine aggregate project data from 2016 to 2020 to describe project implementation, outcomes and best practices.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The FIKIA Project conducted 1,831,441 HIV tests in community settings; of the 98,349 (5.4%) individuals with new HIV diagnoses, 89,640 (91.1%) initiated ART. The project reached substantial numbers of KP: 203,233 received HIV tests, 28,830 (14.2%) received a new HIV diagnosis and 25,170 KP (87.3%) initiated ART at the point of diagnosis. Over time, HIV testing increased by 1.6 times overall (2.3 times among KP), HIV diagnoses increased by 8.7 times (10.9 times among KP) and ART initiation at the point of diagnosis increased from 80.0% to 95.9% overall (from 69.6% to 94.9% among KP).

CONCLUSIONS

Over four years, the FIKIA Project scaled up HIV testing, diagnosis and treatment by using DSD principles to design services that meet the needs of KP and their communities.

Reductions in HIV incidence are likely to increase the importance of key population programmes for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

An efficient HIV response requires that resources be focussed on effective interventions for those most at risk of acquiring and transmitting infection. As HIV epidemics evolve the distribution of HIV across key and other populations will change. Here, the epidemiological concepts underpinning these changes are described and the importance of appropriate allocation of effective interventions is discussed.

DISCUSSION

In many sub-Saharan African countries HIV epidemics have been categorized as "generalized," and HIV testing, treatment and prevention interventions have focussed on the "general" population. As HIV epidemics are better controlled the relative importance of "key" populations will increase, dominating the ongoing burden of disease and providing the potential for repeated outbreaks of HIV if interventions are relaxed. The basic reproductive number (R0 ) describes the potential for an infectious disease to spread at the boundary of invasion or elimination, whereas the effective reproduction number (Rt ) describes the current potential for spread. Heterogeneity in risk means that while Rt is temporarily below one and prevalence declining, the R0 can remain above one, preventing eventual elimination. Patterns of HIV acquisition are often used to guide interventions but inadequately capture the transmission dynamics of the virus and the most efficient approach to controlling HIV. Risks for HIV acquisition are not identical to risks for HIV transmission and will change depending on the epidemiological context. In addition to the challenges in measuring HIV transmission dynamics, there is a tension between using epidemiology to drive the HIV response and the social and political realities constraining how programmes and providers can practically and appropriately focus on key populations and maintain political support. In addition to being well focussed, interventions need to be effective and cost-effective, which requires a better understanding of packages of interventions rather than specific tools.

CONCLUSIONS

Continued control of HIV will increasingly rely on resources, programmes and interventions supporting key populations. Current epidemiological and programmatic approaches for key populations in sub-Saharan Africa are insufficient with a need for an improved understanding of local epidemiology and the effectiveness of interventions.

Current allocations and target apportionment for HIV testing and treatment services for marginalized populations: characterizing PEPFAR investment and strategy

INTRODUCTION

The United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is a large bilateral funder of the global HIV response whose policy decisions on key populations (KPs) programming determine the shape of the key populations' response in many countries. Understanding the size and relative share of PEPFAR funds going to KPs and the connection between PEPFAR's targets and resulting programming is crucial for successfully serving key populations.

METHODS

Publicly available PEPFAR budgets for key populations' services were assessed by country and geographical region for all 52 countries with budget data in fiscal year (FY) 2020. For the 23 countries which completed a full planning process in FY 2018 and 2019, PEPFAR targets for HIV testing and treatment initiation for key populations were assessed. Expenditures for KP programming were calculated to determine whether shifts in targets translated into programming. Implementing partners were characterized by the level of specialization using the share of assigned targets made up by KPs. The average target per year and implementing partner was calculated for each KP group and indicator.

RESULTS

PEPFAR country KP budgets ranged from US$35,000 to $15.2 million, and the proportion of funding to key populations varied by region, with Eastern and Southern African countries having the lowest proportion. Between FY 2018 and 2019, the KP targets for HIV testing and treatment among KPs increased, whereas expenditures on key populations decreased from US$115.4 to $111.0 million. Of the 11 countries with an increase in HIV testing targets, seven had a decrease in KP expenditures. Of the nine countries with an increase in treatment initiation targets, five had a decrease in KP expenditures. The proportion of targets assigned to partners which do not specialize in key populations increased from FY 2018 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Current key population policies have not resulted in a tight connection between targets and expenditures. This includes assigning a large proportion of key populations programming to partners who do not specialize in key populations, which may weaken the performance management role of the targets. These results signal that a new approach to key populations programming is needed.

An Emerging Syndemic of Smoking and Cardiopulmonary Diseases in People Living with HIV in Africa

Background: African countries have the highest number of people living with HIV (PWH). The continent is home to 12% of the global population, but accounts for 71% of PWH globally. Antiretroviral therapy has played an important role in the reduction of the morbidity and mortality rates for HIV, which necessitates increased surveillance of the threats from pernicious risks to which PWH who live longer remain exposed. This includes cardiopulmonary comorbidities, which pose significant public health and economic challenges. A significant contributor to the cardiopulmonary comorbidities is tobacco smoking. Indeed, globally, PWH have a 2–4-fold higher utilization of tobacco compared to the general population, leading to endothelial dysfunction and atherogenesis that result in cardiopulmonary diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and coronary artery disease. In the context of PWH, we discuss (1) the current trends in cigarette smoking and (2) the lack of geographically relevant data on the cardiopulmonary conditions associated with smoking; we then review (3) the current evidence on chronic inflammation induced by smoking and the potential pathways for cardiopulmonary disease and (4) the multifactorial nature of the syndemic of smoking, HIV, and cardiopulmonary diseases. This commentary calls for a major, multi-setting cohort study using a syndemics framework to assess cardiopulmonary disease outcomes among PWH who smoke. Conclusion: We call for a parallel program of implementation research to promote the adoption of evidence-based interventions, which could improve health outcomes for PWH with cardiopulmonary diseases and address the health inequities experienced by PWH in African countries.

Global, regional and national disability-adjusted life years due to HIV from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

Increasing life expectancy and decreasing mortality in patients with HIV infection are well documented. However, details of how many of the years of healthy life are damaged by HIV infection vs. good health have not been understood. We conducted this study to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of the global burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), of HIV infection.

METHODS

Data on HIV-related DALY were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The absolute numbers and age-standardised rates of DALYs due to HIV were reported between 1990 and 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardised rates by sex, region and nation were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in HIV burden.

RESULTS

Global HIV infection caused 47.63 million DALYs in 2019, presenting a 1.28-fold increase from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, years of life lost contributed to most of the total DALYs, but the increases in HIV-related years lived with disability have outpaced increases in years of life lost. The age-standardised rates of HIV-related DALYs in 2019 decreased as the sociodemographic indexes increased. The highest age-standardised rates were observed in sub-Saharan Africa, and the greatest increments over time were detected in Oceania.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, HIV continues to cause enormous healthy life loss. The first and foremost strategy for controlling the HIV burden is still the reduction of premature deaths, and much effort needs to be exerted to mitigate the harm of comorbidities.

The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries

The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age–Period–Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990–2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25–29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

A network-based model to explore the role of testing in the epidemiological control of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Testing is one of the most effective means to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is an upper bound on daily testing volume because of limited healthcare staff and working hours, as well as different testing methods, such as random testing and contact-tracking testing. In this study, a network-based epidemic transmission model combined with a testing mechanism was proposed to study the role of testing in epidemic control. The aim of this study was to determine how testing affects the spread of epidemics and the daily testing volume needed to control infectious diseases.

METHODS

We simulated the epidemic spread process on complex networks and introduced testing preferences to describe different testing strategies. Different networks were generated to represent social contact between individuals. An extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was adopted to simulate the spread of epidemics in these networks. The model establishes a testing preference of between 0 and 1; the larger the testing preference, the higher the testing priority for people in close contact with confirmed cases.

RESULTS

The numerical simulations revealed that the higher the priority for testing individuals in close contact with confirmed cases, the smaller the infection scale. In addition, the infection peak decreased with an increase in daily testing volume and increased as the testing start time was delayed. We also discovered that when testing and other measures were adopted, the daily testing volume required to keep the infection scale below 5% was reduced by more than 40% even if other measures only reduced individuals' infection probability by 10%. The proposed model was validated using COVID-19 testing data.

CONCLUSIONS

Although testing could effectively inhibit the spread of infectious diseases and epidemics, our results indicated that it requires a huge daily testing volume. Thus, it is highly recommended that testing be adopted in combination with measures such as wearing masks and social distancing to better manage infectious diseases. Our research contributes to understanding the role of testing in epidemic control and provides useful suggestions for the government and individuals in responding to epidemics.

Assessing and Addressing Social Determinants of HIV among Female Sex Workers in the Dominican Republic and Tanzania through Community Empowerment-Based Responses

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review describes social determinants of HIV in two geographic and epidemic settings, the Dominican Republic (DR) and Tanzania, among female sex workers (FSW), their influence on HIV outcomes including 90-90-90 goals, and the development and impact of tailored, context driven, community empowerment-based responses in each setting.

RECENT FINDINGS

Our review documents the significance of social determinants of HIV including sex work-related stigma, discrimination, and violence and the impact of community empowerment-based approaches on HIV incidence in Tanzania and other HIV prevention, treatment, and care outcomes, including care engagement and adherence, in the DR and Tanzania. Community empowerment approaches where FSW drive the response to HIV and strategically engage partners to target socio-structural and environmental factors can have a demonstrable impact on HIV prevention, treatment, and care outcomes. Such approaches can also support further gains towards reaching the 90-90-90 across geographies and types of epidemics.

From general to specific: moving past the general population in the HIV response across sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

As the HIV field evolves to better serve populations which are diverse in risk and access to services, it is crucial to understand and adapt the conceptual tools used to make sense of the HIV pandemic. In this commentary, we discuss the concept of general population. Using a synthetic and historical review, we reflect on the genesis and usage of the general population in HIV research and programme literature, pointing to its moral connotations and its impact on epidemiologic reasoning.

DISCUSSION

From the early days of the HIV pandemic, the category of general population has carried implicit normative meanings. General population represented those people considered to be undeserving of HIV acquisition, and therefore deserving of a response. Framing the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa as a generalized epidemic primarily affecting the general population has contributed to the exclusion of men who have sex with men from epidemic responses. The usage of this category has also masked heterogeneity among those it includes; the increasing focus on the use of interventions such as circumcision and HIV treatment as general population HIV prevention approaches has been marked by a lack of attention to heterogeneity among beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that the term general population be retired from the field's lexicon. HIV programmes should strengthen their capacity to describe the heterogeneity of those they serve and plan their interventions accordingly. To increase the efficiency and impact of the HIV response, it is urgent to stratify the category of general population by risk. Sexual networks are a promising basis for this stratification.

Impact of male circumcision on risk of HIV infection in men in a changing epidemic context - systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

WHO/UNAIDS recommended Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in 2007 based on systematic review of observational studies prior to 1999 and three randomized controlled trials (RCTs). To inform updated WHO guidance, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of impact of circumcision on the risk of HIV infection among heterosexual men.

METHODS

Studies in PubMed of HIV incidence and changes in prevalence in heterosexual men by circumcision status were identified. Pooled incidence rate ratios were computed using fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis and risk of bias was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In three RCTs, the pooled incidence ratio was 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.56), with risk difference 10 (8 to 12) fewer infections per 1000 person-years (py). Pooled incidence ratios were 0.34 (0.24 to 0.49) in two post-RCT follow-up studies, 0.29 (0.19 to 0.43) in men at high HIV risk (five cohorts), 0.48 (0.33 to 0.70) in four community-based cohorts before circumcision scale-up, and 0.56 (0.49 to 0.64) (7 [6 to 8] fewer per 1000 py) in six community-based cohorts during circumcision and antiretroviral treatment scale-up. Heterogeneity between studies was low except in men at high HIV risk. We estimated 520,000 (425,000 to 605,000) fewer infections occurred in men by end of 2018 from 22.7 million circumcisions performed since 2008 and increasing by 155,000 (125,000 to 180,000) annually if epidemic conditions remain similar. After exclusion of studies with high risk of bias and those conducted outside Africa, pooled incidence ratios were similar. There was no evidence of confounding nor changes in risk behaviour following circumcision. In post-hoc exploratory analyses we observed a trend of decreasing effectiveness of circumcision in cohorts with lower HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Efficacy of medical male circumcision on HIV incidence from randomized controlled trials was supported by effectiveness from observational studies in populations with diverse HIV risk and changing epidemic contexts. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision remains an important evidence-based intervention for control of generalized HIV epidemics.