Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States

Incidence of Tuberculosis Among Immigrants in Korea Who Participated in a Latent Tuberculosis Infection Screening Program

BACKGROUND

With a rapid decrease in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, the significance of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has been underscored in South Korea. Although South Korea does not have a high proportion of immigrants compared to other countries, there is a growing argument that it should actively embrace immigrants as a solution to address issues of low birth rates and population aging. This study aimed to assess TB incidence among immigrants who participated a pilot LTBI screening program in South Korea.

METHODS

Records of immigrants participated in a pilot LTBI screening program in South Korea between 2018 and 2019 were linked with Korean National TB Surveillance System to determine TB development. Participants underwent interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and chest X-rays. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) stratified by age, country of origin's TB burden was calculated with a reference group of general South Korean population.

RESULTS

Of a total of 9,517 participants, 14 TB cases were identified. Participants with positive IGRA results who did not initiate LTBI treatment showed TB incidence of 312.5 per 100,000 person-years, whereas those with negative results showed TB incidence of 34.4 per 100,000 person-years, resulting in an incidence rate ratio of 9.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.50-32.99). SIR of TB among total participants including those with negative IGRA results was 2.60 (95% CI, 1.54-4.38; P < 0.001), whereas SIR among those with positive IGRA results was 5.86 (95% CI, 3.15-10.89; P < 0.001). In the calculation of SIR among participants with positive IGRA results, those aged under 35 from high TB-burden countries or intermediate TB-burden countries showed a high SIR (18.08; 95% CI, 2.55-128.37; P = 0.004), and 11.30 (95% CI, 2.82-45.16; P < 0.001), respectively). Contrary to previous reports that suggest the majority of elderly population with a positive IGRA result were due to remote infection and had a lower TB risk compared to younger ages, SIR among those aged 65 or over from intermediate TB-burden countries was 6.15 (95% CI, 0.87-43.69; P = 0.069), which was comparable to that in younger participants aged between 35 and 49 (SIR, 4.87; 95% CI, 1.22-19.49; P = 0.025) or those aged between 50 and 64 (SIR, 4.62; 95% CI, 1.73-12.31; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Young immigrants with positive IGRA results from countries with high or intermediate TB burden showed a relatively high TB risk compared to a general South Korea population. In addition, unexpected high TB risk was observed among elderly immigrants with positive IGRA results. In establishing future policies for LTBI in immigrants in South Korea, screenings should primarily focus on younger age group (who aged under 35). Additionally, further research is needed on the high TB risk observed in elderly immigrants.

Undernutrition as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of mortality due to an infectious disease, with an estimated 1.6 million deaths due to TB in 2022. Approximately 25% of the global population has TB infection, giving rise to 10.6 million episodes of TB disease in 2022. Undernutrition is a key risk factor for TB and was linked to an estimated 2.2 million TB episodes in 2022, as outlined in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Tuberculosis Report.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prognostic value of undernutrition in the general population of adults, adolescents, and children for predicting tuberculosis disease over any time period.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the literature databases MEDLINE (via PubMed) and WHO Global Index Medicus, as well as the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) on 3 May 2023 (date of last search for all databases). We placed no restrictions on the language of publication.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included retrospective and prospective cohort studies, irrespective of publication status or language. The target population comprised adults, adolescents, and children from diverse settings, encompassing outpatient and inpatient cohorts, with varying comorbidities and risk of exposure to tuberculosis.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methodology and the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool to assess the risk of bias of the studies. Prognostic factors included undernutrition, defined as wasting, stunting, and underweight, with specific measures such as body mass index (BMI) less than two standard deviations below the median for children and adolescents and low BMI scores (< 18.5) for adults and adolescents. Prognostication occurred at enrolment/baseline. The primary outcome was the incidence of TB disease. The secondary outcome was recurrent TB disease. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis for the adjusted hazard ratios (HR), risk ratios (RR), or odds ratios (OR), employing the restricted maximum likelihood estimation. We rated the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 51 cohort studies with over 27 million participants from the six WHO regions. Sixteen large population-based studies were conducted in China, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA, and 25 studies focused on people living with HIV, which were mainly conducted in the African region. Most studies were in adults, four in children, and three in children and adults. Undernutrition as an exposure was usually defined according to standard criteria; however, the diagnosis of TB did not include a confirmatory culture or molecular diagnosis using a WHO-approved rapid diagnostic test in eight studies. The median follow-up time was 3.5 years, and the studies primarily reported an adjusted hazard ratio from a multivariable Cox-proportional hazard model. Hazard ratios (HR) The HR estimates represent the highest certainty of the evidence, explored through sensitivity analyses and excluding studies at high risk of bias. We present 95% confidence intervals (CI) and prediction intervals, which present between-study heterogeneity represented in a measurement of the variability of effect sizes (i.e. the interval within which the effect size of a new study would fall considering the same population of studies included in the meta-analysis). Undernutrition may increase the risk of TB disease (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83 to 2.72; prediction interval 0.98 to 5.05; 23 studies; 2,883,266 participants). The certainty of the evidence is low due to a moderate risk of bias across studies and inconsistency. When stratified by follow-up time, the results are more consistent across < 10 years follow-up (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.34; prediction interval 1.20 to 3.39; 22 studies; 2,869,077 participants). This results in a moderate certainty of evidence due to a moderate risk of bias across studies. However, at 10 or more years of follow-up, we found only one study with a wider CI and higher HR (HR 12.43, 95% CI 5.74 to 26.91; 14,189 participants). The certainty of the evidence is low due to the moderate risk of bias and indirectness. Odds ratio (OR) Undernutrition may increase the odds of TB disease, but the results are uncertain (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.17; prediction interval 0.61 to 3.99; 8 studies; 173,497 participants). Stratification by follow-up was not possible as all studies had a follow-up of < 10 years. The certainty of the evidence is very low due to the high risk of bias and inconsistency. Contour-enhanced funnel plots were not reported due to the few studies included. Risk ratio (RR) Undernutrition may increase the risk of TB disease (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.72 to 2.20; prediction interval 1.49 to 2.55; 4 studies; 1,475,867 participants). Stratification by follow-up was not possible as all studies had a follow-up of < 10 years. The certainty of the evidence is low due to the high risk of bias. Contour-enhanced funnel plots were not reported due to the few studies included.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Undernutrition probably increases the risk of TB two-fold in the short term (< 10 years) and may also increase the risk in the long term (> 10 years). Policies targeted towards the reduction of the burden of undernutrition are not only needed to alleviate human suffering due to undernutrition and its many adverse consequences, but are also an important part of the critical measures for ending the TB epidemic by 2030. Large population-based cohorts, including those derived from high-quality national registries of exposures (undernutrition) and outcomes (TB disease), are needed to provide high-certainty estimates of this risk across different settings and populations, including low and middle-income countries from different WHO regions. Moreover, studies including children and adolescents and state-of-the-art methods for diagnosing TB would provide more up-to-date information relevant to practice and policy.

FUNDING

World Health Organization (203256442).

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration: CRD42023408807 Protocol: https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD015890.

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in the elderly: factors driving a higher burden of disease

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) and SARS-CoV-2 are both infections that can lead to severe disease in the lower lung. However, these two infections are caused by very different pathogens (Mycobacterium vs. virus), they have different mechanisms of pathogenesis and immune response, and differ in how long the infection lasts. Despite the differences, SARS-CoV-2 and M.tb share a common feature, which is also frequently observed in other respiratory infections: the burden of disease in the elderly is greater. Here, we discuss possible reasons for the higher burden in older adults, including the effect of co-morbidities, deterioration of the lung environment, auto-immunity, and a reduced antibody response. While the answer is likely to be multifactorial, understanding the main drivers across different infections may allow us to design broader interventions that increase the health-span of older people.

Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, the tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and associated factors vary substantially across states. While public health agencies must choose how to deploy resources to combat TB and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), state-level modeling analyses to inform policy decisions have not been widely available.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of TB epidemiology linked to a web-based user interface - Tabby2. The model is calibrated to epidemiological and demographic data for the United States, each U.S. state, and the District of Columbia. Users can simulate pre-defined scenarios describing approaches to TB prevention and treatment or create their own intervention scenarios. Location-specific results for epidemiological outcomes, service utilization, costs, and cost-effectiveness are reported as downloadable tables and customizable visualizations. To demonstrate the tool's functionality, we projected trends in TB outcomes without additional intervention for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We further undertook a case study of expanded treatment of LTBI among non-U.S.-born individuals in Massachusetts, covering 10% of the target population annually over 2025-2029.

RESULTS

Between 2022 and 2050, TB incidence rates were projected to decline in all states and the District of Columbia. Incidence projections for the year 2050 ranged from 0.03 to 3.8 cases (median 0.95) per 100,000 persons. By 2050, we project that majority (> 50%) of TB will be diagnosed among non-U.S.-born persons in 46 states and the District of Columbia; per state percentages range from 17.4% to 96.7% (median 83.0%). In Massachusetts, expanded testing and treatment for LTBI in this population was projected to reduce cumulative TB cases between 2025 and 2050 by 6.3% and TB-related deaths by 8.4%, relative to base case projections. This intervention had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $180,951 (2020 USD) per quality-adjusted life year gained from the societal perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Tabby2 allows users to estimate the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of different TB prevention approaches for multiple geographic areas in the United States. Expanded testing and treatment for LTBI could accelerate declines in TB incidence in the United States, as demonstrated in the Massachusetts case study.

A social network analysis model approach to understand tuberculosis transmission in remote rural Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Quality surveillance data used to build tuberculosis (TB) transmission models are frequently unavailable and may overlook community intrinsic dynamics that impact TB transmission. Social network analysis (SNA) generates data on hyperlocal social-demographic structures that contribute to disease transmission.

METHODS

We collected social contact data in five villages and built SNA-informed village-specific stochastic TB transmission models in remote Madagascar. A name-generator approach was used to elicit individual contact networks. Recruitment included confirmed TB patients, followed by snowball sampling of named contacts. Egocentric network data were aggregated into village-level networks. Network- and individual-level characteristics determining contact formation and structure were identified by fitting an exponential random graph model (ERGM), which formed the basis of the contact structure and model dynamics. Models were calibrated and used to evaluate WHO-recommended interventions and community resiliency to foreign TB introduction.

RESULTS

Inter- and intra-village SNA showed variable degrees of interconnectivity, with transitivity (individual clustering) values of 0.16, 0.29, and 0.43. Active case finding and treatment yielded 67%-79% reduction in active TB disease prevalence and a 75% reduction in TB mortality in all village networks. Following hypothetical TB elimination and without specific interventions, networks A and B showed resilience to both active and latent TB reintroduction, while Network C, the village network with the highest transitivity, lacked resiliency to reintroduction and generated a TB prevalence of 2% and a TB mortality rate of 7.3% after introduction of one new contagious infection post hypothetical elimination.

CONCLUSION

In remote Madagascar, SNA-informed models suggest that WHO-recommended interventions reduce TB disease (active TB) prevalence and mortality while TB infection (latent TB) burden remains high. Communities' resiliency to TB introduction decreases as their interconnectivity increases. "Top down" population level TB models would most likely miss this difference between small communities. SNA bridges large-scale population-based and hyper focused community-level TB modeling.

Challenges of Diagnosing Mendelian Susceptibility to Mycobacterial Diseases in South Africa

Inborn errors of immunity (IEI) are genetic disorders with extensive clinical presentations. They can range from increased susceptibility to infections to significant immune dysregulation that results in immune impairment. While IEI cases are individually rare, they collectively represent a significant burden of disease, especially in developing countries such as South Africa, where infectious diseases like tuberculosis (TB) are endemic. This is particularly alarming considering that certain high penetrance mutations that cause IEI, such as Mendelian Susceptibility to Mycobacterial Disease (MSMD), put individuals at higher risk for developing TB and other mycobacterial diseases. MSMD patients in South Africa often present with different clinical phenotypes than those from the developed world, therefore complicating the identification of disease-associated variants in this setting with a high burden of infectious diseases. The lack of available data, limited resources, as well as variability in clinical phenotype are the reasons many MSMD cases remain undetected or misdiagnosed. This article highlights the challenges in diagnosing MSMD in South Africa and proposes the use of transcriptomic analysis as a means of potentially identifying dysregulated pathways in affected African populations.

HIV-associated lung disease

Lung disease encompasses acute, infectious processes and chronic, non-infectious processes such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and lung cancer. People living with HIV are at increased risk of both acute and chronic lung diseases. Although the use of effective antiretroviral therapy has diminished the burden of infectious lung disease, people living with HIV experience growing morbidity and mortality from chronic lung diseases. A key risk factor for HIV-associated lung disease is cigarette smoking, which is more prevalent in people living with HIV than in uninfected people. Other risk factors include older age, history of bacterial pneumonia, Pneumocystis pneumonia, pulmonary tuberculosis and immunosuppression. Mechanistic investigations support roles for aberrant innate and adaptive immunity, local and systemic inflammation, oxidative stress, altered lung and gut microbiota, and environmental exposures such as biomass fuel burning in the development of HIV-associated lung disease. Assessment, prevention and treatment strategies are largely extrapolated from data from HIV-uninfected people. Smoking cessation is essential. Data on the long-term consequences of HIV-associated lung disease are limited. Efforts to continue quantifying the effects of HIV infection on the lung, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, are essential to advance our knowledge and optimize respiratory care in people living with HIV.

Update on the diagnosis of tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global public health threat, and the development of rapid and precise diagnostic tools is the key to enabling the early start of treatment, monitoring response to treatment, and preventing the spread of the disease.

OBJECTIVES

An overview of recent progress in host- and pathogen-based TB diagnostics.

SOURCES

We conducted a PubMed search of recent relevant articles and guidelines on TB screening and diagnosis.

CONTENT

An overview of currently used methods and perspectives in the following areas of TB diagnostics is provided: immune-based diagnostics, X-ray, clinical symptoms and scores, cough detection, culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and identifying its resistance profile using phenotypic and genotypic methods, including next-generation sequencing, sputum- and non-sputum-based molecular diagnosis of TB and monitoring of response to treatment.

IMPLICATIONS

A brief overview of the most relevant advances and changes in international guidelines regarding screening and diagnosing TB is provided in this review. It aims at reviewing all relevant areas of diagnostics, including both pathogen- and host-based methods.

Influence of genetic variability in toll-like receptors (TLR 2, TLR 4, and TLR 9) on human immunodeficiency virus-1 disease progression

Background

It has been demonstrated that toll-like receptors (TLR2), TLR4, and TLR9 which were initially known for recognizing bacterial products are involved in the detection of viral components. It was planned to undertake a prospective longitudinal study among ethnically homogeneous antiretroviral treatment and antitubercular treatment naïve human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients representing the north Indian population. The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of TLR2, TLR4, and TLR9 polymorphism in HIV disease progression.

Methods

The present study was designed to investigate genetic polymorphism in TLRs (TLR2, TLR4, and TLR9) among HIV-infected patients with and without TB coinfection. The study population consisted of two groups: (i) HIV-positive patients without TB infection and disease (n = 223, HIV-positive patients); (ii) HIV-positive patients with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) (n = 150, HIV-positive LTBI patients). These participants were of either gender between 18 and 60 years of age and treatment naïve for both TB and HIV. HIV-positive and HIV-positive LTBI patients were longitudinally followed up for t2 years to study HIV disease progression.

Results

On comparing TLR2 and TLR4 allelic and genotypic frequencies between 306 HIV-positive patients (no TB/AIDS) and 47 HIV-positive patients progressed to active TB/AIDS, no significant difference was observed between the two groups. The frequency of "A" allele in TLR9 was found to be significantly increased in 47 HIV-positive patients who progressed to active TB/AIDS (61.7%) as compared to 42.16% in 306 HIV-positive patients (no TB/AIDS), (P < 0.001). Furthermore, a significantly increased frequency of "AA" genotype in TLR9 was observed in 47 HIV-positive patients progressed to active TB/AIDS (55.32%) as compared to 20.26% in HIV-positive patients (no TB/AIDS).

Conclusion

Findings of the present study revealed that genetic variability in TLR9 may influence HIV disease progression. The AA genotype in TLR9 may be associated with progression to TB/AIDS for 2 years in HIV-positive patients.

Gene expression profiling identifies candidate biomarkers for new latent tuberculosis infections. A cohort study

Objective

To determine the gene expression profile in individuals with new latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), and to compare them with people with active tuberculosis (TB) and those exposed to TB but not infected.

Design

A prospective cohort study. Recruitment and follow-up were conducted between September 2016 to December 2018. Gene expression and data processing and analysis from April 2019 to April 2021.

Setting

Two male Colombian prisons.

Participants

15 new tuberculin skin test (TST) converters (negative TST at baseline that became positive during follow-up), 11 people that continued with a negative TST after two years of follow-up, and 10 people with pulmonary ATB.

Main outcome measures

Gene expression profile using RNA sequencing from PBMC samples. The differential expression was assessed using the DESeq2 package in Bioconductor. Genes with |logFC| >1.0 and an adjusted p-value < 0.1 were differentially expressed. We analyzed the differences in the enrichment of KEGG pathways in each group using InterMiner.

Results

The gene expression was affected by the time of incarceration. We identified group-specific differentially expressed genes between the groups: 289 genes in people with a new LTBI and short incarceration (less than three months of incarceration), 117 in those with LTBI and long incarceration (one or more years of incarceration), 26 in ATB, and 276 in the exposed but non-infected individuals. Four pathways encompassed the largest number of down and up-regulated genes among individuals with LTBI and short incarceration: cytokine signaling, signal transduction, neutrophil degranulation, and innate immune system. In individuals with LTBI and long incarceration, the only enriched pathway within up-regulated genes was Emi1 phosphorylation.

Conclusions

Recent infection with MTB is associated with an identifiable RNA pattern related to innate immune system pathways that can be used to prioritize LTBI treatment for those at greatest risk for developing active TB.

Are we underestimating the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high-burden settings?

The annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis determines a population's exposure level and thus the fraction of incident tuberculosis resulting from recent infection (often considered as having occurred within the past 2 years). Contemporary annual risk of infection estimates centre around 1% in most high-burden countries. We present three arguments why these estimates-primarily derived from cross-sectional tuberculin surveys in young school children (aged 5-12 years)-might underrepresent the true annual risk of infection. First, young children are expected to have lower risk of infection than older adolescents and adults (ie, those aged 15 years and older). Second, exposure might not lead to a positive test result in some individuals. Third, cross-sectional surveys might overlook transient immune responses. Accounting for these biases, the true annual risk of infection among adults in high-burden settings is probably closer to 5-10%. Consequently, most tuberculosis in those settings should reflect infection within the past 2 years rather than remote infection occurring many years ago. Under this reframing, major reductions in tuberculosis incidence could be achievable by focusing on the minority of people who have been recently infected.

The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease

BACKGROUND

Effective targeting of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment requires identifying those most likely to progress to tuberculosis (TB). We estimated the potential health and economic benefits of diagnostics with improved discrimination for LTBI that will progress to TB.

METHODS

A base case scenario represented current LTBI testing and treatment services in the United States in 2020, with diagnosis via. interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Alternative scenarios represented tests with higher positive predictive value (PPV) for future TB but similar price to IGRA, and scenarios that additionally assumed higher treatment initiation and completion. We predicted outcomes using multiple transmission-dynamic models calibrated to different geographic areas and estimated costs from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

In 2020, 2.1% (range across model results: 1.1%-3.4%) of individuals with LTBI were predicted to develop TB in their remaining lifetime. For IGRA, we estimated the PPV for future TB as 1.3% (0.6%-1.8%). Relative to IGRA, we estimated a test with 10% PPV would reduce treatment volume by 87% (82%-94%), reduce incremental costs by 30% (15%-52%), and increase quality-adjusted life years by 3% (2%-6%). Cost reductions and health improvements were substantially larger for scenarios in which higher PPV for future TB was associated with greater initiation and completion of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated that tests with better predictive performance would substantially reduce the number of individuals treated to prevent TB but would have a modest impact on incremental costs and health impact of TB prevention services, unless accompanied by greater treatment acceptance and completion.

Blood transcriptomics reveal the evolution and resolution of the immune response in tuberculosis

Blood transcriptomics have revealed major characteristics of the immune response in active TB, but the signature early after infection is unknown. In a unique clinically and temporally well-defined cohort of household contacts of active TB patients that progressed to TB, we define minimal changes in gene expression in incipient TB increasing in subclinical and clinical TB. While increasing with time, changes in gene expression were highest at 30 d before diagnosis, with heterogeneity in the response in household TB contacts and in a published cohort of TB progressors as they progressed to TB, at a bulk cohort level and in individual progressors. Blood signatures from patients before and during anti-TB treatment robustly monitored the treatment response distinguishing early and late responders. Blood transcriptomics thus reveal the evolution and resolution of the immune response in TB, which may help in clinical management of the disease.

Trends, mechanisms, and racial/ethnic differences of tuberculosis incidence in the US-born population aged 50 years or older in the United States

Background

Older age is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) in low incidence settings. Using data from the US National TB Surveillance System and American Community Survey, we estimated trends and racial/ethnic differences in TB incidence among US-born cohorts aged ≥50 years.

Methods

In total, 42 000 TB cases among US-born persons ≥50 years were reported during 2001–2019. We used generalized additive regression models to decompose the effects of birth cohort and age on TB incidence rates, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Using genotype-based estimates of recent transmission (available 2011–2019), we implemented additional models to decompose incidence trends by estimated recent versus remote infection.

Results

Estimated incidence rates declined with age, for the overall cohort and most sex and race/ethnicity strata. Average annual percentage declines flattened for older individuals, from 8.80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34–9.23) in 51-year-olds to 4.51% (95% CI 3.87–5.14) in 90-year-olds. Controlling for age, incidence rates were lower for more recent birth cohorts, dropping 8.79% (95% CI 6.13–11.26) on average between successive cohort years. Incidence rates were substantially higher for racial/ethnic minorities, and these inequalities persisted across all birth cohorts. Rates from recent infection declined at approximately 10% per year as individuals aged. Rates from remote infection declined more slowly with age, and this annual percentage decline approached zero for the oldest individuals.

Conclusions

TB rates were highest for racial/ethnic minorities and for the earliest birth cohorts and declined with age. For the oldest individuals, annual percentage declines were low, and most cases were attributed to remote infection.