A hierarchical model for estimating the exposure-response curve by combining multiple studies of acute lower respiratory infections in children and household fine particulate matter air pollution

Cohort profile: Bangladesh Cook Stove Pregnancy Cohort Study (CSPCS)

PURPOSE

The Cook Stove Pregnancy Cohort Study (CSPCS) was designed to assess the effects of biomass fuel use on household air pollution (HAP) as well as the effects of HAP (fine particulate matter, PM_2.5) on birth outcomes and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among infants in Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

We recruited 903 women within 18 weeks of pregnancy from rural and semiurban areas of Bangladesh between November 2016 and March 2017. All women and their infants (N=831 pairs) were followed until 12 months after delivery and a subset have undergone respiratory and gut microbiota analysis.

METHODS

Questionnaires were administered to collect detailed sociodemographic, medical, nutritional and behavioural information on the mother-child dyads. Anthropometric measurements and biological samples were also collected, as well as household PM_2.5 concentrations.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Published work in this cohort showed detrimental effects of biomass fuel and health inequity on birth outcomes. Current analysis indicates high levels of household PM_2.5 being associated with cooking fuel type and infant ALRI. Lastly, we identified distinct gut and respiratory microbial communities at 6 months of age.

FUTURE PLANS

This study provides an economical yet effective framework to conduct pregnancy cohort studies determining the health effects of adverse environmental exposures in low-resource countries. Future analyses in this cohort include assessing the effect of indoor PM_2.5 levels on (1) physical growth, (2) neurodevelopment, (3) age of first incidence and frequency of ALRI in infants and (4) the development of the respiratory and gut microbiome. Additional support has allowed us to investigate the effect of in utero exposure to metals on infant neurodevelopment in the first year of life.

Widespread Clean Cooking Fuel Scale-Up and under-5 Lower Respiratory Infection Mortality: An Ecological Analysis in Ecuador, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Nationwide household transitions to the use of clean-burning cooking fuels are a promising pathway to reducing under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality, the leading cause of child mortality globally, but such transitions are rare and evidence supporting an association between increased clean fuel use and improved health is limited.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the association between increased primary clean cooking fuel use and under-5 LRI mortality in Ecuador between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

We documented cooking fuel use and cause-coded child mortalities at the canton (county) level in Ecuador from 1990 to 2019 (in four periods, 1988-1992, 1999-2003, 2008-2012, and 2015-2019). We characterized the association between clean fuel use and the rate of under-5 LRI mortalities at the canton level using quasi-Poisson generalized linear and generalized additive models, accounting for potential confounding variables that characterize wealth, urbanization, and child health care and vaccination rates, as well as canton and period fixed effects. We estimated averted under-5 LRI mortalities accrued over 30 y by predicting a counterfactual count of canton-period under-5 LRI mortalities were clean fuel use to not have increased and comparing with predicted canton-period under-5 LRI mortalities from our model and observed data.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of households primarily using a clean cooking fuel increased from 59% to 95%, and under-5 LRI mortality fell from 28 to 7 per 100,000 under-5 population. Canton-level clean fuel use was negatively associated with under-5 LRI mortalities in linear and nonlinear models. The nonlinear association suggested a threshold at approximately 60% clean fuel use, above which there was a negative association. Increases in clean fuel use between 1990 and 2019 were associated with an estimated 7,300 averted under-5 LRI mortalities (95% confidence interval: 2,600, 12,100), accounting for nearly 20% of the declines in under-5 LRI mortality observed in Ecuador over the study period.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that the widespread household transition from using biomass to clean-burning fuels for cooking reduced under-5 LRI mortalities in Ecuador over the last 30 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11016.

Personal exposures to fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide in relation to cooking activities in rural Malawi

Background: Air pollution is a major environmental risk factor for cardiorespiratory disease. Exposures to household air pollution from cooking and other activities, are particularly high in Southern Africa. Following an extended period of participant observation in a village in Malawi, we aimed to assess individuals' exposures to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) and to investigate the different sources of exposure, including different cooking methods. Methods: Adult residents of a village in Malawi wore personal PM 2.5 and CO monitors for 24-48 hours, sampling every 1 (CO) or 2 minutes (PM 2.5). Subsequent in-person interviews recorded potential exposure details over the time periods. We present means and interquartile ranges for overall exposures and summaries stratified by time and activity (exposure). We employed multivariate regression to further explore these characteristics, and Spearman rank correlation to examine the relationship between paired PM 2.5 and CO exposures. Results : Twenty participants (17 female; median age 40 years, IQR: 37-56) provided 831 hours of paired PM 2.5 and CO data. Concentrations of PM 2.5 during combustion activity, usually cooking, far exceeded background levels (no combustion activity): 97.9μg/m 3 (IQR: 22.9-482.0), vs 7.6μg/m 3, IQR: 2.5-20.6 respectively. Background PM 2.5 concentrations were higher during daytime hours (11.7μg/m 3 [IQR: 5.2-30.0] vs 3.3μg/m 3 at night [IQR: 0.7-8.2]). Highest exposures were influenced by cooking location but associated with charcoal use (for CO) and firewood on a three-stone fire (for PM 2.5). Cooking-related exposures were higher in more ventilated places, such as outside the household or on a walled veranda, than during indoor cooking. Conclusions : The study demonstrates the value of combining personal PM 2.5 exposure data with detailed contextual information for providing deeper insights into pollution sources and influences. The finding of similar/lower exposures during cooking in seemingly less-ventilated places should prompt a re-evaluation of proposed clean air interventions in these settings.

Deaths Attributable to Indoor PM2.5 in Urban China When Outdoor Air Meets 2021 WHO Air Quality Guidelines

The World Health Organization reduced the recommended level of annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations to 5 μg/m³ in 2021. Previously, the guideline was geared toward ambient air pollution, and now it explicitly applies to indoor air pollution. However, the disease burden attributed to different indoor emission sources has been overlooked, particularly in urban areas. Our objective was to estimate the mortality attributable to indoor PM_2.5 in urban areas in China. Our model estimated 711 thousand (584-823) deaths and 2.75 trillion (2.26-3.19) CNY economic losses attributable to PM_2.5 in urban China in 2019, in which indoor sources contributed 394 thousand (323-457) deaths and 1.53 trillion (1.25-1.77) CNY losses. There would still be 536 thousand (427-638) PM_2.5-attributable deaths and 2.07 trillion (1.65-2.47) CNY losses each year when the outdoor PM_2.5 is 5 μg/m³, of which 485 thousand (386-578) deaths and 1.87 trillion (1.49-2.23) CNY are attributable to indoor sources. Despite cleaner outdoor air and no solid fuels being used, considerable health hazards and economic losses are attributable to indoor PM_2.5. Measures to reduce PM_2.5 exposure in humans from both indoor and outdoor sources are required to achieve a substantial reduction in deaths.

Effects of household and participant characteristics on personal exposure and kitchen concentration of fine particulate matter and black carbon in rural Honduras

Traditional cooking with solid fuels (biomass, animal dung, charcoals, coal) creates household air pollution that leads to millions of premature deaths and disability worldwide each year. Exposure to household air pollution is highest in low- and middle-income countries. Using data from a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial of a cookstove intervention among 230 households in Honduras, we analyzed the impact of household and personal variables on repeated 24-h measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) exposure. Six measurements were collected approximately six-months apart over the course of the three-year study. Multivariable mixed models explained 37% of variation in personal PM2.5 exposure and 49% of variation in kitchen PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, multivariable models explained 37% and 47% of variation in personal and kitchen BC concentrations, respectively. Stove type, season, presence of electricity, primary stove location, kitchen enclosure type, stove use time, and presence of kerosene for lighting were all associated with differences in geometric mean exposures. Stove type explained the most variability of the included variables. In future studies of household air pollution, tracking the cooking behaviors and daily activities of participants, including outdoor exposures, may explain exposure variation beyond the household and personal variables considered here.

Personal exposures to fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide in relation to cooking activities in rural Malawi

Background: Air pollution is a major environmental risk factor for cardiorespiratory disease. Exposures to household air pollution from cooking and other activities, are particularly high in Southern Africa. Following an extended period of participant observation in a village in Malawi, we aimed to assess individuals' exposures to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) and to investigate the different sources of exposure, including different cooking methods. Methods: Adult residents of a village in Malawi wore personal PM 2.5 and CO monitors for 24-48 hours, sampling every 1 (CO) or 2 minutes (PM 2.5). Subsequent in-person interviews recorded potential exposure details over the time periods. We present means and interquartile ranges for overall exposures and summaries stratified by time and activity (exposure). We employed multivariate regression to further explore these characteristics, and Spearman rank correlation to examine the relationship between paired PM 2.5 and CO exposures. Results : Twenty participants (17 female; median age 40 years, IQR: 37-56) provided 831 hours of paired PM 2.5 and CO data. Concentrations of PM 2.5 during combustion activity, usually cooking, far exceeded background levels (no combustion activity): 97.9μg/m 3 (IQR: 22.9-482.0), vs 7.6μg/m 3, IQR: 2.5-20.6 respectively. Background PM 2.5 concentrations were higher during daytime hours (11.7μg/m 3 [IQR: 5.2-30.0] vs 3.3μg/m 3 at night [IQR: 0.7-8.2]). Highest exposures were influenced by cooking location but associated with charcoal use (for CO) and firewood on a three-stone fire (for PM 2.5). Cooking-related exposures were higher in more ventilated places, such as outside the household or on a walled veranda, than during indoor cooking. Conclusions : The study demonstrates the value of combining personal PM 2.5 exposure data with detailed contextual information for providing deeper insights into pollution sources and influences. The finding of similar/lower exposures during cooking in seemingly less-ventilated places should prompt a re-evaluation of proposed clean air interventions in these settings.

Estimating long-term average household air pollution concentrations from repeated short-term measurements in the presence of seasonal trends and crossover

Estimating long-term exposure to household air pollution is essential for quantifying health effects of chronic exposure and the benefits of intervention strategies. However, typically only a small number of short-term measurements are made. We compare different statistical models for combining these short-term measurements into predictions of a long-term average, with emphasis on the impact of temporal trends in concentrations and crossover in study design. We demonstrate that a linear mixed model that includes time adjustment provides the best predictions of long-term average, which have lower error than using household averages or mixed models without time, for a variety of different study designs and underlying temporal trends. In a case study of a cookstove intervention study in Honduras, we further demonstrate how, in the presence of strong seasonal variation, long-term average predictions from the mixed model approach based on only two or three measurements can have less error than predictions based on an average of up to six measurements. These results have important implications for the efficiency of designs and analyses in studies assessing the chronic health impacts of long-term exposure to household air pollution.