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Wallwork SB, Braithwaite FA, O'Keeffe M, Travers MJ, Summers SJ, Lange B, Hince DA, Costa LOP, Menezes Costa LDC, Chiera B, Moseley GL. The clinical course of acute, subacute and persistent low back pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis. CMAJ 2024; 196:E29-E46. [PMID: 38253366 PMCID: PMC10805138 DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.230542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the clinical course of low back pain is essential to informing treatment recommendations and patient stratification. Our aim was to update our previous systematic review and meta-analysis to gain a better understanding of the clinical course of acute, subacute and persistent low back pain. METHODS To update our 2012 systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched the Embase, MEDLINE and CINAHL databases from 2011 until January 2023, using our previous search strategy. We included prospective inception cohort studies if they reported on participants with acute (< 6 wk), subacute (6 to less than 12 wk) or persistent (12 to less than 52 wk) nonspecific low back pain at study entry. Primary outcome measures included pain and disability (0-100 scale). We assessed risk of bias of included studies using a modified tool and assessed the level of confidence in pooled estimates using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) tool. We used a mixed model design to calculate pooled estimates (mean, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of pain and disability at 0, 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks. We treated time in 2 ways: time since study entry (inception time uncorrected) and time since pain onset (inception time corrected). We transformed the latter by adding the mean inception time to the time of study entry. RESULTS We included 95 studies, with 60 separate cohorts in the systematic review (n = 17 974) and 47 cohorts (n = 9224) in the meta-analysis. Risk of bias of included studies was variable, with poor study attrition and follow-up, and most studies did not select participants as consecutive cases. For the acute pain cohort, the estimated mean pain score with inception time uncorrected was 56 (95% CI 49-62) at baseline, 26 (95% CI 21-31) at 6 weeks, 22 (95% CI 18-26) at 26 weeks and 21 (95% CI 17-25) at 52 weeks (moderate-certainty evidence). For the subacute pain cohort, the mean pain score was 63 (95% CI 55-71) at baseline, 29 (95% CI 22-37) at 6 weeks, 29 (95% CI 22-36) at 26 weeks and 31 (95% 23-39) at 52 weeks (moderate-certainty evidence). For the persistent pain cohort, the mean pain score was 56 (95% CI 37-74) at baseline, 48 (95% CI 32-64) at 6 weeks, 43 (95% CI 29-57) at 26 weeks and 40 (95% CI 27-54) at 52 weeks (very low-certainty evidence). The clinical course of disability was slightly more favourable than the clinical course of pain. INTERPRETATION Participants with acute and subacute low back pain had substantial improvements in levels of pain and disability within the first 6 weeks ( moderate-certainty evidence); however, participants with persistent low back pain had high levels of pain and disability with minimal improvements over time (very low-certainty evidence). Identifying and escalating care in individuals with subacute low back pain who are recovering slowly could be a focus of intervention to reduce the likelihood of transition into persistent low back pain. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO - CRD42020207442.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah B Wallwork
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Felicity A Braithwaite
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Mary O'Keeffe
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Mervyn J Travers
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Simon J Summers
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Belinda Lange
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Dana A Hince
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Leonardo O P Costa
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Luciola da C Menezes Costa
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Belinda Chiera
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
| | - G Lorimer Moseley
- IIMPACT in Health (Wallwork, Braithwaite, Moseley), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia; Persistent Pain Research Group, Hopwood Centre for Neurobiology (Braithwaite), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Musculoskeletal Health (O'Keeffe), School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; School of Health Sciences and Physiotherapy (Travers), University of Notre Dame Australia, Fremantle, Australia; School of Biomedical Science (Summers), Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia; Caring Futures Institute (Lange), College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; Institute for Health Research (Hince), Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, Midwifery and Health Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Australia; Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy (Costa, Menezes Costa), Universidade Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; UniSA STEM (Chiera), University of South Australia, Kaurna Country, Adelaide, Australia
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Papic C, Kifley A, Craig A, Grant G, Collie A, Pozzato I, Gabbe B, Derrett S, Rebbeck T, Jagnoor J, Cameron ID. Factors associated with long term work incapacity following a non-catastrophic road traffic injury: analysis of a two-year prospective cohort study. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1498. [PMID: 35931966 PMCID: PMC9356415 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13884-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs), primarily musculoskeletal in nature, are the leading cause of unintentional injury worldwide, incurring significant individual and societal burden. Investigation of a large representative cohort is needed to validate early identifiable predictors of long-term work incapacity post-RTI. Therefore, up until two years post-RTI we aimed to: evaluate absolute occurrence of return-to-work (RTW) and occurrence by injury compensation claimant status; evaluate early factors (e.g., biopsychosocial and injury-related) that influence RTW longitudinally; and identify factors potentially modifiable with intervention (e.g., psychological distress and pain). Methods Prospective cohort study of 2019 adult participants, recruited within 28 days of a non-catastrophic RTI, predominantly of mild-to-moderate severity, in New South Wales, Australia. Biopsychosocial, injury, and compensation data were collected via telephone interview within one-month of injury (baseline). Work status was self-reported at baseline, 6-, 12-, and 24-months. Analyses were restricted to participants who reported paid work pre-injury (N = 1533). Type-3 global p-values were used to evaluate explanatory factors for returning to ‘any’ or ‘full duties’ paid work across factor subcategories. Modified Poisson regression modelling was used to evaluate factors associated with RTW with adjustment for potential covariates. Results Only ~ 30% of people with RTI returned to full work duties within one-month post-injury, but the majority (76.7%) resumed full duties by 6-months. A significant portion of participants were working with modified duties (~ 10%) or not working at all (~ 10%) at 6-, 12-, and 24-months. Female sex, low education, low income, physically demanding occupations, pre-injury comorbidities, and high injury severity were negatively associated with RTW. Claiming injury compensation in the fault-based scheme operating at the time, and early identified post-injury pain and psychological distress, were key factors negatively associated with RTW up until two years post-injury. Conclusions Long-term work incapacity was observed in 20% of people following RTI. Our findings have implications that suggest review of the design of injury compensation schemes and processes, early identification of those at risk of delayed RTW using validated pain and psychological health assessment tools, and improved interventions to address risks, may facilitate sustainable RTW. Trial registration This study was registered prospectively with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12613000889752).
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher Papic
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia.
| | - Annette Kifley
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia
| | - Ashley Craig
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia
| | - Genevieve Grant
- Australian Centre for Justice Innovation, Faculty of Law, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3800, Australia
| | - Alex Collie
- Healthy Working Lives Research Group, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - Ilaria Pozzato
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia
| | - Belinda Gabbe
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - Sarah Derrett
- Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, 18 Frederick Street, Dunedin North, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand
| | - Trudy Rebbeck
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia
| | - Jagnoor Jagnoor
- The George Institute for Global Health, and Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Level 5/1 King St, Newtown, NSW, 2042, Australia
| | - Ian D Cameron
- Northern Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute of Medican Research, The University of Sydney, Royal North Shore Hospital, Level 12, Corner Reserve Road and Westbourne Street, NSW, 2065, St Leonards, Australia
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