Adding injury to insult: Unfair treatment at work and occupational injury among hospital patient-care workers

BACKGROUND

Hospital patient-care workers have high occupational injury rates. While physical hazards within hospital work environments are established determinants of injury, social exposures may also contribute. This study examined how reports of unfair treatment at work, a dimension of work-related experiences of discrimination, were associated with injury among hospital-based patient-care workers.

METHODS

We used data from the Boston Hospital Workers Health Study, a longitudinal cohort of nurses and nursing assistants at two Boston-area hospitals. In 2018, we conducted a worker survey asking about three types of unfair treatment at work and occupational injuries during the past year. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to evaluate associations between specific types, total load, and high-frequency exposure of unfair treatment with injury, adjusting for age, gender, race and ethnicity, job title, and unit type.

RESULTS

Among 1001 respondents, 21% reported being humiliated in front of others at work, 28% reported being watched more closely than other workers, and 47% reported having to work twice as hard as others for the same treatment. For each type of unfair treatment, we observed a monotonic relationship with occupational injury wherein increasing frequency of exposure was associated with increased odds of injury. We also observed monotonic relationships between total load and high-frequency exposure to unfair treatment and odds of injury.

CONCLUSIONS

Work-related unfair treatment is associated with injury among hospital workers. Programs and policies that focus on preventing unfair treatment may lessen injury burden in hospital workers.

Thriving from work questionnaire: Spanish translation and validation

BACKGROUND

Thriving from Work is a construct that has been highlighted as an important integrative positive worker well-being indicator that can be used in both research and practice. Recent public discourse emphasizes the important contributions that work should have on workers' lives in positive and meaningful ways and the importance of valid and reliable instruments to measure worker well-being. The Thriving from Work Questionnaire measures how workers' experiences of their work and conditions of work contributes in positive ways to their thriving both at and outside of work.

METHODS

The purpose of this study was to translate the Thriving from Work Questionnaire from English to Spanish, and then validate the translated questionnaire in a sample of 8,795 finance workers in Peru and Mexico. We used item response theory models replicating methods that were used for the original validation studies. We conducted a differential item functioning analysis to evaluate any differences in the performance of models between Peru and Mexico. We evaluated criterion validity with organizational leadership, flourishing, vitality, community well-being, and worker's home location socio-economic position.

RESULTS

The current study demonstrates that the Spanish (Peru/Mexico) questionnaire was found to be a reliable and valid measure of workers' thriving from work. One item was dropped from the long-form version of the original U.S. questionnaire. Both the long and short form versions of the questionnaire had similar psychometric properties. Empirical reliability was high. Criterion validity was established as hypothesized relationships between constructs was supported. There were no differences in the performance of the model between countries suggesting utility across Latin American countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study demonstrated that the Spanish (Peru and Mexico) version of the questionnaire is both a reliable and valid measure of worker well-being in Latin America. Specific recommendations are made for the adaptation of the questionnaire and directions of future research.

Can Better Leadership Reduce Nursing Home Staff Turnover?

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether a measure of leadership support for worker safety, health, and well-being predicts staff turnover in nursing homes after controlling for other factors.

DESIGN

This paper uses administrative payroll data to measure facility-level turnover and uses a survey measure of nursing home leadership commitment to workers. In addition, we use data from Medicare to measure various nursing home characteristics.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Nursing homes with at least 30 beds serving adults in California, Ohio, and Massachusetts were invited to participate in the survey. The analysis sample included 495 nursing homes.

METHODS

We used a multivariable ordinary least squares model with turnover rate as the dependent variable. We used an indicator for nursing homes who scored above the median on the measure of leadership that supports worker safety, health, and well-being. Control variables include bed count (deciles), ownership (corporate/noncorporate × for-profit/not-for-profit), percent of residents on Medicaid, state, being in a nonmetropolitan county, and total nurse staffing per patient day in the 2 quarters before the survey.

RESULTS

The unadjusted turnover rate was lower for those nursing homes that scored higher on leadership commitment to worker safety, health, and well-being. After controlling for additional variables, greater leadership commitment was still associated with lower turnover but with some attenuation.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

We find that nursing homes with leadership that communicated and demonstrated commitment to worker safety, health, and well-being had relatively fewer nurses leave during the study period, with turnover rates approximately 10% lower than homes without. These findings suggest that leadership may be a valuable tool for reducing staff turnover.

Lessons From COVID-19 for Protecting Workers in the Next Pandemic

This Viewpoint examines some of the missteps during the COVID-19 pandemic to protect health care workers and how to use lessons from those mistakes for future pandemics.

Thriving from Work Questionnaire: Dimensionality, reliability, and validity of the long and short form questionnaires

INTRODUCTION

Thriving from Work is defined as the state of positive mental, physical, and social functioning in which workers' experiences of their work and working conditions enable them to thrive in their overall lives, contributing to their ability to achieve their full potential at work, at home, and in the community. The purpose of this study was to develop a psychometrically-sound questionnaire measuring the positive contribution that work can have on one's well-being both at, and outside of, their work.

METHODS

We used both a qualitative and quantitative approach of item reduction, domain mapping dimensionality testing, development of "long-" and "short-" versions of the questionnaire, reliability, and construct and criterion validity testing. This was established in two independent online samples of US based workers (n = 1550, n = 500).

RESULTS

We developed a bi-factor model 30-item long-form and a uni-factorial 8-item short-version. The long-form measures both the latent construct of Thriving from Work and six domains (psychological/emotional; work-life integration; social; experience of work; basic needs; health). Both long- and short- forms were found to have high empirical reliability (0.93  and 0.87 respectively). The short-form captures 94% of variance of the long-form. Construct and criterion validity were supported. Test-retest reliability was high.

CONCLUSIONS

The Thriving from Work Questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable measure of work-related well-being in United States workers. Further testing is needed to refine and test the instrument in specific industries, unique worker populations, and across geographic regions.

Rapid Antigen Screening of Students and Staff for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural School Districts, Pierce County, WA, 2020

During fall 2020 in rural Pierce County, Washington, school districts and the county health department offered weekly rapid antigen screening to students and staff. Asymptomatic screening identified 42.5% of confirmed cases from the population. Parents reported it was a positive experience for their children. The program supported decisions to return to in-person learning, but screening ended because of resource and technical limitations. When planning in-school screening, stakeholder engagement and resource sustainability are important factors to consider. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(8):1134-1137. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306875).

Statin therapy inhibits fatty acid synthase via dynamic protein modifications

Statins are a class of drug widely prescribed for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, with pleiotropic cellular effects. Statins inhibit HMG-CoA reductase (HMGCR), which converts the metabolite HMG-CoA into mevalonate. Recent discoveries have shown HMG-CoA is a reactive metabolite that can non-enzymatically modify proteins and impact their activity. Therefore, we predicted that inhibition of HMGCR by statins might increase HMG-CoA levels and protein modifications. Upon statin treatment, we observe a strong increase in HMG-CoA levels and modification of only a single protein. Mass spectrometry identifies this protein as fatty acid synthase (FAS), which is modified on active site residues and, importantly, on non-lysine side-chains. The dynamic modifications occur only on a sub-pool of FAS that is located near HMGCR and alters cellular signaling around the ER and Golgi. These results uncover communication between cholesterol and lipid biosynthesis by the substrate of one pathway inhibiting another in a rapid and reversible manner.

Genome-wide association studies of metabolites in Finnish men identify disease-relevant loci

Few studies have explored the impact of rare variants (minor allele frequency < 1%) on highly heritable plasma metabolites identified in metabolomic screens. The Finnish population provides an ideal opportunity for such explorations, given the multiple bottlenecks and expansions that have shaped its history, and the enrichment for many otherwise rare alleles that has resulted. Here, we report genetic associations for 1391 plasma metabolites in 6136 men from the late-settlement region of Finland. We identify 303 novel association signals, more than one third at variants rare or enriched in Finns. Many of these signals identify genes not previously implicated in metabolite genome-wide association studies and suggest mechanisms for diseases and disease-related traits.

Work and worker health in the post-pandemic world: a public health perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of work in shaping population health and wellbeing. This Viewpoint applies a multilevel systems framework to assist in understanding the diverse and complex interactions of forces affecting worker health and wellbeing, and how trending changes in employment and working conditions have been accelerated by the pandemic. Government agencies concerned with population health and wellbeing, and economic activity must expand their capacity to monitor, evaluate, and respond to these trends. In addition, integrated enterprise and workplace-based approaches that consider the interactions among these multidimensional drivers will build organisation and worker resilience to navigate the continual changes in work and worker safety, health, and wellbeing in a post-pandemic world.

Implementation of an organizational intervention to improve low-wage food service workers' safety, health and wellbeing: findings from the Workplace Organizational Health Study

Background

Many organizational interventions aim to improve working conditions to promote and protect worker safety, health, and well-being. The Workplace Organizational Health Study used process evaluation to examine factors influencing implementation of an organizational intervention. This paper examines the extent to which the intervention was implemented as planned, the dose of intervention implemented, and ways the organizational context hindered or facilitated the implementation of the intervention.

Methods

This proof-of-concept trial was conducted with a large, multinational company that provides food service through contractual arrangements with corporate clients. The 13-month intervention was launched in five intervention sites in October 2018. We report findings on intervention implementation based on process tracking and qualitative data. Qualitative data from 25 post-intervention interviews and 89 process tracking documents were coded and thematically analyzed.

Results

Over the 13-month intervention, research team representatives met with site managers monthly to provide consultation and technical assistance on safety and ergonomics, work intensity, and job enrichment. Approximately two-thirds of the planned in-person or phone contacts occurred. We tailored the intervention to each site as we learned more about context, work demands, and relationships. The research team additionally met regularly with senior leadership and district managers, who provided corporate resources and guidance. By assessing the context of the food service setting in which the intervention was situated, we explored factors hindering and facilitating the implementation of the intervention. The financial pressures, competing priorities and the fast-paced work environment placed constraints on site managers’ availability and limited the full implementation of the intervention.

Conclusions

Despite strong support from corporate senior leadership, we encountered barriers in the implementation of the planned intervention at the worksite and district levels. These included financial demands that drove work intensity; turnover of site and district managers disrupting continuity in the implementation of the intervention; and staffing constraints that further increased the work load and pace. Findings underscore the need for ongoing commitment and support from both the parent employer and the host client.

Trial registration

This study was retrospectively registered with the Clinical Trials. Gov Protocol and Results System on June 2, 2021 with assigned registration number NCT04913168.

Thriving from Work: Conceptualization and Measurement

Work is a major contributor to our health and well-being. Workers' thriving is directly influenced by their job design, work environment and organization. The purpose of this report is to describe the qualitative methods used to develop the candidate items for a novel measure of Thriving from Work through a multi-step iterative process including: a literature review, workshop, interviews with experts, and cognitive testing of the candidate items. Through this process, we defined Thriving from Work as the state of positive mental, physical, and social functioning in which workers' experiences of their work and working conditions enable them to thrive in their overall lives, contributing to their ability to achieve their full potential in their work, home, and community. Thriving from Work was conceptualized into 37 attributes across seven dimensions: psychological, emotional, social, work-life integration, basic needs, experience of work, and health. We ultimately identified, developed and/or modified 87 candidate questionnaire items mapped to these attributes that performed well in cognitive testing in demographically and occupationally diverse workers. The Thriving from Work Questionnaire will be subjected to psychometric testing and item reduction in future studies. Individual items demonstrated face validity and good cognitive response properties and may be used independently from the questionnaire.

Development and application of an innovative instrument to assess work environment factors for injury prevention in the food service industry

BACKGROUND

With the growth the food service industry and associated high injury and illness rates, there is a need to assess workplace factors that contribute to injury prevention.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this report is to describe the development, application, and utility of a new instrument to evaluate ergonomics and safety for food service workers.

METHODS

Starting with a similar tool developed for use in healthcare, a new tool was designed through a collaborative, participatory process with the stakeholders from a collaborating food service company. The new instrument enables the identification and assessment of key safety and health factors through a focused walkthrough of the physical work environment, and structured interviews exploring the organizational work environment. The researchers applied the instrument at 10 of the partnering company's worksites.

RESULTS

The instrument identified factors related to both the physical work environment and organizational and contextual environment (e.g., vendor-client relationships) impacting worker safety and health.

CONCLUSIONS

Modern assessment approaches should address both the physical and organizational aspects of the work environment, and consider the context complexities in which the worksites and the industry operate.

How to ask: Surveying nursing directors of nursing homes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nursing home research may involve eliciting information from managers, yet response rates for Directors of Nursing have not been recently studied. As a part of a more extensive study, we surveyed all nursing homes in three states in 2018 and 2019, updating how to survey these leaders effectively. We focus on response rates as a measure of non-response error and comparison of nursing home's characteristics to their population values as a measure of representation error.

METHODS

We surveyed Directors of Nursing or their designees in nursing homes serving adult residents with at least 30 beds in California, Massachusetts, and Ohio (N = 2389). We collected contact information for respondents and then emailed survey invitations and links, followed by three email reminders and a paper version. Nursing home associations in two of the states contacted their members on our behalf. We compared the response rates across waves and states. We also compared the characteristics of nursing homes based on whether the response was via email or paper. In a multivariable logit regression, we used characteristics of the survey and the nursing homes to predict whether their DON responded to the survey using adjustments for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

The response rate was higher for the first wave than for the second (30% vs 20.5%). The highest response rate was in Massachusetts (31.8%), followed by Ohio (25.8%) and California (19.5%). Nursing home characteristics did not vary by response mode. Additionally, we did not find any statistically significant predictors of whether a nursing home responded.

CONCLUSION

A single-mode survey may provide a reasonably representative sample at the cost of sample size. With that said, however, switching modes can increase sample size without potentially biasing the sample.

The future of research on work, safety, health and wellbeing: A guiding conceptual framework

Work plays a central role in health. A conceptual model can help frame research priorities and questions to explore determinants of workers' safety, health, and wellbeing. A previous conceptual model focused on the workplace setting to emphasize the role of conditions of work in shaping workers' safety, health and wellbeing. These conditions of work include physical, organizational, and psychosocial factors. This manuscript presents and discusses an updated and expanded conceptual model, placing the workplace and the conditions of work within the broader context of socio-political-economic environments and consequent trends in employment and labor force patterns. Social, political and economic trends, such as growing reliance on technology, climate change, and globalization, have significant implications for workers' day-to-day experiences. These structural forces in turn shape employment and labor patterns, with implications for the availability and quality of jobs; the nature of relationships between employers and workers; and the benefits and protections available to workers. Understanding these patterns will be critical for anticipating the consequences of future changes in the conditions of work, and ultimately help inform decision-making around policies and practices intended to protect and promote worker safety, health, and wellbeing. This model provides a structure for anticipating research needs in response to the changing nature of work, including the formation of research priorities, the need for expanded research methods and measures, and attention to diverse populations of enterprises and workers. This approach anticipates changes in the way work is structured, managed, and experienced by workers and can effectively inform policies and practices needed to protect and promote worker safety, health and wellbeing.

Psychological well-being as part of the public health debate? Insight into dimensions, interventions, and policy

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests that psychological well-being (PWB) is associated with lower disease and mortality risk, and may be enhanced with relatively low-cost interventions. Yet, dissemination of these interventions remains limited, in part because insufficient attention has been paid to distinct PWB dimensions, which may impact physical health outcomes differently.

METHODS

This essay first reviews the empirical evidence regarding differential relationships between all-cause mortality and multiple dimensions of PWB (e.g., life purpose, mastery, positive affect, life satisfaction, optimism). Then, individual-level positive psychology interventions aimed at increasing PWB and tested in randomized-controlled trials are reviewed as these allow for easy implementation and potentially broad outreach to improve population well-being, in concert with efforts targeting other established social determinants of health.

RESULTS

Several PWB dimensions relate to mortality, with varying strength of evidence. Many of positive psychology trials indicate small-to-moderate improvements in PWB; rigorous institution-level interventions are comparatively few, but preliminary results suggest benefits as well. Examples of existing health policies geared towards the improvement of population well-being are also presented. Future avenues of well-being epidemiological and intervention research, as well as policy implications, are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Although research in the fields of behavioral and psychosomatic medicine, as well as health psychology have substantially contributed to the science of PWB, this body of work has been somewhat overlooked by the public health community. Yet, the growing interest in documenting well-being, in addition to examining its determinants and consequences at a population level may provoke a shift in perspective. To cultivate optimal well-being-mental, physical, social, and spiritual-consideration of a broader set of well-being measures, rigorous studies, and interventions that can be disseminated is critically needed.

Deletion of the Mitochondrial Protein VWA8 Induces Oxidative Stress and an HNF4α Compensatory Response in Hepatocytes

von Willebrand A domain-containing protein 8 (VWA8) is a poorly characterized, mitochondrial matrix-targeted protein with an AAA ATPase domain and ATPase activity that increases in livers of mice fed a high-fat diet. This study was undertaken to use CRISPR/Cas9 to delete VWA8 in cultured mouse hepatocytes and gain insight into its function. Unbiased omics techniques and bioinformatics were used to guide subsequent assays, including the assessment of oxidative stress and the determination of bioenergetic capacity. Metabolomics analysis showed VWA8 null cells had higher levels of oxidative stress and protein degradation; assays of hydrogen peroxide production revealed higher levels of production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Proteomics and transcriptomics analyses showed VWA8 null cells had higher levels of expression of mitochondrial proteins (electron transport-chain Complex I, ATP synthase), peroxisomal proteins, and lipid transport proteins. The pattern of higher protein abundance in the VWA8 null cells could be explained by a higher level of hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 α (HNF4α) expression. Bioenergetic assays showed higher rates of carbohydrate oxidation and mitochondrial and nonmitochondrial lipid oxidation in intact and permeabilized cells. Inhibitor assays localized sites of ROS production to peroxisomes and NOX1/4. The rescue of VWA8 protein restored the wild-type phenotype, and treatment with antioxidants decreased the level of HNF4α expression. Thus, loss of VWA8 produces a mitochondrial defect that may be sensed by NOX4, leading to an increase in the level of ROS that results in a higher level of HNF4α. The compensatory HNF4α response results in a higher oxidative capacity and an even higher level of ROS production. We hypothesize that VWA8 is an AAA ATPase protein that plays a role in mitochondrial protein quality.

A Prob(e)able Route to Lysine Acylation

Non-enzymatic modification of proteins by acyl-CoA species involved in intermediary metabolism is a possible explanation for widespread protein acylation. In this issue, Kulkarni et al. (2017) develop a set of chemoproteomic probes to interrogate the role of malonyl-CoA in mediating protein malonylation and find malonylation influences glycolysis in cancer cells.

Improving Working Conditions to Promote Worker Safety, Health, and Wellbeing for Low-Wage Workers: The Workplace Organizational Health Study

This paper addresses a significant gap in the literature by describing a study that tests the feasibility and efficacy of an organizational intervention to improve working conditions, safety, and wellbeing for low-wage food service workers. The Workplace Organizational Health Study tests the hypothesis that an intervention targeting the work organization and environment will result in improvements in workers' musculoskeletal disorders and wellbeing. This ongoing study is being conducted in collaboration with a large food service company. Formative evaluation was used to prioritize outcomes, assess working conditions, and define essential intervention elements. The theory-driven intervention is being evaluated in a proof-of-concept trial, conducted to demonstrate feasibility and potential efficacy using a cluster randomized design. Ten worksites were randomly assigned to intervention or control conditions. The 13-month intervention uses a comprehensive systems approach to improve workplace policies and practices. Using principles of participatory engagement, the intervention targets safety and ergonomics; work intensity; and job enrichment. The evaluation will provide a preliminary assessment of estimates of the intervention effect on targeted outcomes and inform understanding of the intervention implementation across worksites. This study is expected to provide insights on methods to improve working conditions in support of the safety and wellbeing of low-wage workers.

Respiratory Phenomics across Multiple Models of Protein Hyperacylation in Cardiac Mitochondria Reveals a Marginal Impact on Bioenergetics

Acyl CoA metabolites derived from the catabolism of carbon fuels can react with lysine residues of mitochondrial proteins, giving rise to a large family of post-translational modifications (PTMs). Mass spectrometry-based detection of thousands of acyl-PTMs scattered throughout the proteome has established a strong link between mitochondrial hyperacylation and cardiometabolic diseases; however, the functional consequences of these modifications remain uncertain. Here, we use a comprehensive respiratory diagnostics platform to evaluate three disparate models of mitochondrial hyperacylation in the mouse heart caused by genetic deletion of malonyl CoA decarboxylase (MCD), SIRT5 demalonylase and desuccinylase, or SIRT3 deacetylase. In each case, elevated acylation is accompanied by marginal respiratory phenotypes. Of the >60 mitochondrial energy fluxes evaluated, the only outcome consistently observed across models is a ∼15% decrease in ATP synthase activity. In sum, the findings suggest that the vast majority of mitochondrial acyl PTMs occur as stochastic events that minimally affect mitochondrial bioenergetics.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The relationship between organizational policies and practices and work limitations among hospital patient care workers

OBJECTIVE

We examined relationships between organizational policies and practices (OPPs) (safety practices, ergonomic practices, and people-oriented culture) and work limitations in a sample of hospital workers.

METHODS

We used the 6-item Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ) to assess workers' perceptions of health-related work limitations. Self-reported OPPs and the WLQ were collected from workers in Boston, Massachusetts (n = 1277). We conducted random-intercept multi-level logistic regression models for each OPP using stepwise selection of covariates.

RESULTS

As the unit-average ergonomic practice score increased by one, the odds of a worker reporting work limitations decreased by approximately 39% (P-value = 0.018), adjusted for job title, age, and body mass index. A similar relationship existed for people-oriented culture (P-value = 0.038). The association between safety practices and work limitations was similar, but not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the importance of workplace OPPs. OPPs that promote positive and supportive environments and that foster improvements in ergonomics may help reduce work limitations.

Lost in translation: The challenge of adapting integrated approaches for worker health and safety for low- and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVES

To describe the process of adapting an intervention integrating occupational safety and health (OSH) and health promotion for manufacturing worksites in India and the challenges faced in implementing it; and explore how globalization trends may influence the implementation of these integrated approaches in India and other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

This study-conducted in 22 manufacturing worksites in Mumbai, India-adapted and implemented an evidence-based intervention tested in the U.S. that integrated OSH and tobacco control. The systematic adaptation process included formative research and pilot testing, to ensure that the tested intervention was tailored to the local setting. We used qualitative methods and process evaluation to assess the extent to which this intervention was implemented, and to explore barriers to implementation.

RESULTS

While participating worksites agreed to implement this intervention, not all components of the adapted intervention were implemented fully in the 10 worksites assigned to the intervention condition. We found that the OSH infrastructure in India focused predominantly on regulatory compliance, medical screening (secondary prevention) and the treatment of injuries. We observed generally low levels of leadership support and commitment to OSH, evidenced by minimal management participation in the intervention, reluctance to discuss OSH issues with the study team or workers, and little receptivity to recommendations resulting from the industrial hygienist's reports.

CONCLUSION

India presents one example of a LMIC with a rising burden of non-communicable diseases and intensified exposures to both physical and organizational hazards on the job. Our experiences highlight the importance of national and global trends that shape workers' experiences on the job and their related health outcomes. Beyond a singular focus on prevention of non-communicable diseases, coordinated national and international efforts are needed to address worker health outcomes in the context of the conditions of work that clearly shape them.

Progressive mitochondrial protein lysine acetylation and heart failure in a model of Friedreich's ataxia cardiomyopathy

INTRODUCTION

The childhood heart disease of Friedreich's Ataxia (FRDA) is characterized by hypertrophy and failure. It is caused by loss of frataxin (FXN), a mitochondrial protein involved in energy homeostasis. FRDA model hearts have increased mitochondrial protein acetylation and impaired sirtuin 3 (SIRT3) deacetylase activity. Protein acetylation is an important regulator of cardiac metabolism and loss of SIRT3 increases susceptibility of the heart to stress-induced cardiac hypertrophy and ischemic injury. The underlying pathophysiology of heart failure in FRDA is unclear. The purpose of this study was to examine in detail the physiologic and acetylation changes of the heart that occur over time in a model of FRDA heart failure. We predicted that increased mitochondrial protein acetylation would be associated with a decrease in heart function in a model of FRDA.

METHODS

A conditional mouse model of FRDA cardiomyopathy with ablation of FXN (FXN KO) in the heart was compared to healthy controls at postnatal days 30, 45 and 65. We evaluated hearts using echocardiography, cardiac catheterization, histology, protein acetylation and expression.

RESULTS

Acetylation was temporally progressive and paralleled evolution of heart failure in the FXN KO model. Increased acetylation preceded detectable abnormalities in cardiac function and progressed rapidly with age in the FXN KO mouse. Acetylation was also associated with cardiac fibrosis, mitochondrial damage, impaired fat metabolism, and diastolic and systolic dysfunction leading to heart failure. There was a strong inverse correlation between level of protein acetylation and heart function.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate a close relationship between mitochondrial protein acetylation, physiologic dysfunction and metabolic disruption in FRDA hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and suggest that abnormal acetylation contributes to the pathophysiology of heart disease in FRDA. Mitochondrial protein acetylation may represent a therapeutic target for early intervention.

An Approach to Assess the Burden of Work-Related Injury, Disease, and Distress

The true burden (morbidity, mortality, disability, cost, pain, distress) of occupational and work-related diseases and injuries is unknown, and what is reported as burden is significantly underestimated. This underestimation affects the way decision-makers view investments in research and worker protection, which in turn has a substantial impact on national welfare and public health. To better describe the societal and individual burdens of occupational and work-related diseases and injuries, we propose an approach to gauge what is known about burden and where new assessments may be made. This approach consists of 4 elements to consider in burden assessments: (1) utilizing multiple domains, including the individual worker, the worker's family, the community in which the workplace is located, the employer, and society as a whole; (2) taking a broader view of the work-relatedness of disease and injury; (3) assessing the impact of the entire working-life continuum; and (4) applying the comprehensive concept of "well-being" as an indicator in addressing contemporary changes in the nature of work, the workplace, and the workforce. Further research on burden and enhanced surveillance is needed to develop these elements.

SIRT4 Is a Lysine Deacylase that Controls Leucine Metabolism and Insulin Secretion

Sirtuins are NAD⁺-dependent protein deacylases that regulate several aspects of metabolism and aging. In contrast to the other mammalian sirtuins, the primary enzymatic activity of mitochondrial sirtuin 4 (SIRT4) and its overall role in metabolic control have remained enigmatic. Using a combination of phylogenetics, structural biology, and enzymology, we show that SIRT4 removes three acyl moieties from lysine residues: methylglutaryl (MG)-, hydroxymethylglutaryl (HMG)-, and 3-methylglutaconyl (MGc)-lysine. The metabolites leading to these post-translational modifications are intermediates in leucine oxidation, and we show a primary role for SIRT4 in controlling this pathway in mice. Furthermore, we find that dysregulated leucine metabolism in SIRT4KO mice leads to elevated basal and stimulated insulin secretion, which progressively develops into glucose intolerance and insulin resistance. These findings identify a robust enzymatic activity for SIRT4, uncover a mechanism controlling branched-chain amino acid flux, and position SIRT4 as a crucial player maintaining insulin secretion and glucose homeostasis during aging.

Key Organizational Characteristics for Integrated Approaches to Protect and Promote Worker Health in Smaller Enterprises

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between worksite organizational characteristics (size, industrial sector, leadership commitment, and organizational supports) and integrated approaches to protecting and promoting worker health implemented in smaller enterprises.

METHODS

We analyzed web-based survey data of Human Resource Managers at 114 smaller enterprises (<750 employees) to identify organizational factors associated with levels of integrated approaches among their worksites.

RESULTS

The companies' mean integration score was 13.6 (SD = 9.6) of a possible 44. In multivariate analyses, having a safety committee (P = 0.035) and top leadership support for health promotion (HP) (P = 0.004) were positively associated with higher integration scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Smaller enterprises in one U.S. region have relatively low levels of implementing integrated safety and promotion approaches. Having a safety committee and leadership support for HP may be important contributors to implementing integrated approaches in smaller enterprises.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Integrating worksite health protection and health promotion: A conceptual model for intervention and research

There is increasing recognition of the value added by integrating traditionally separate efforts to protect and promote worker safety and health. This paper presents an innovative conceptual model to guide research on determinants of worker safety and health and to inform the design, implementation and evaluation of integrated approaches to promoting and protecting worker health. This model is rooted in multiple theories and the premise that the conditions of work are important determinants of individual safety and health outcomes and behaviors, and outcomes important to enterprises such as absence and turnover. Integrated policies, programs and practices simultaneously address multiple conditions of work, including the physical work environment and the organization of work (e.g., psychosocial factors, job tasks and demands). Findings from two recent studies conducted in Boston and Minnesota (2009-2015) illustrate the application of this model to guide social epidemiological research. This paper focuses particular attention on the relationships of the conditions of work to worker health-related behaviors, musculoskeletal symptoms, and occupational injury; and to the design of integrated interventions in response to specific settings and conditions of work of small and medium size manufacturing businesses, based on a systematic assessment of priorities, needs, and resources within an organization. This model provides an organizing framework for both research and practice by specifying the causal pathways through which work may influence health outcomes, and for designing and testing interventions to improve worker safety and health that are meaningful for workers and employers, and responsive to that setting's conditions of work.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Validation of a New Metric for Assessing the Integration of Health Protection and Health Promotion in a Sample of Small- and Medium-Sized Employer Groups

OBJECTIVE

To conduct validation analyses for a new measure of the integration of worksite health protection and health promotion approaches developed in earlier research.

METHODS

A survey of small- to medium-sized employers located in the United States was conducted between October 2013 and March 2014 (n = 111). Cronbach α coefficient was used to assess reliability, and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to assess convergent validity.

RESULTS

The integration score was positively associated with the measures of occupational safety and health and health promotion activities/policies-supporting its convergent validity (Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.32 to 0.47). Cronbach α coefficient was 0.94, indicating excellent reliability.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration score seems to be a promising tool for assessing integration of health promotion and health protection. Further work is needed to test its dimensionality and validate its use in other samples.

High-Resolution Metabolomics with Acyl-CoA Profiling Reveals Widespread Remodeling in Response to Diet

The availability of acyl-Coenzyme A (acyl-CoA) thioester compounds affects numerous cellular functions including autophagy, lipid oxidation and synthesis, and post-translational modifications. Consequently, the acyl-CoA level changes tend to be associated with other metabolic alterations that regulate these critical cellular functions. Despite their biological importance, this class of metabolites remains difficult to detect and quantify using current analytical methods. Here we show a universal method for metabolomics that allows for the detection of an expansive set of acyl-CoA compounds and hundreds of other cellular metabolites. We apply this method to profile the dynamics of acyl-CoA compounds and corresponding alterations in metabolism across the metabolic network in response to high fat feeding in mice. We identified targeted metabolites (>50) and untargeted features (>1000) with significant changes (FDR < 0.05) in response to diet. A substantial extent of this metabolic remodeling exhibited correlated changes in acyl-CoA metabolism with acyl-carnitine metabolism and other features of the metabolic network that together can lead to the discovery of biomarkers of acyl-CoA metabolism. These findings show a robust acyl-CoA profiling method and identify coordinated changes of acyl-CoA metabolism in response to nutritional stress.

SnapShot: Mammalian Sirtuins

The mammalian sirtuins have emerged as critical regulators of cellular stress resistance, energy metabolism, and tumorigenesis. In some contexts, they delay the onset of age-related diseases and promote a healthy lifespan. The seven mammalian sirtuins, SIRT1-7, share a highly conserved NAD+-binding catalytic core domain although they exhibit distinct expression patterns, catalytic activities, and biological functions. This SnapShot provides an overview of these properties, with an emphasis on their relevance to aging.

Understanding the hospital sharps injury reporting pathway

BACKGROUND

Patient-care workers are frequently exposed to sharps injuries, which can involve the risk of serious illness. Underreporting of these injuries can compromise prevention efforts.

METHODS

We linked survey responses of 1,572 non-physician patient-care workers with the Occupational Health Services (OHS) database at two academic hospitals. We determined whether survey respondents who said they had sharps injuries indicated that they had reported them and whether reported injuries were recorded in the OHS database.

RESULTS

Respondents said that they reported 62 of 78 sharps injuries occurring over a 12-month period. Only 28 appeared in the OHS data. Safety practices were positively associated with respondents' saying they reported sharps injuries but not with whether reported injuries appeared in the OHS data.

CONCLUSIONS

Administrators should consider creating reporting mechanisms that are simpler and more direct. Administrators and researchers should attempt to understand how incidents might be lost before they are recorded.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Arterial stiffness, oxidative stress, and smoke exposure in wildland firefighters

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between exposure, oxidative stress, symptoms, and cardiorespiratory function in wildland firefighters.

METHODS

We studied two Interagency Hotshot Crews with questionnaires, pulse wave analysis for arterial stiffness, spirometry, urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (8-isoprostane) and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and the smoke exposure marker (urinary levoglucosan). Arterial stiffness was assessed by examining levels of the aortic augmentation index, expressed as a percentage. An oxidative stress score comprising the average of z-scores created for 8-OHdG and 8-isoprostane was calculated.

RESULTS

Mean augmentation index % was higher for participants with higher oxidative stress scores after adjusting for smoking status. Specifically for every one unit increase in oxidative stress score the augmentation index % increased 10.5% (95% CI: 2.5, 18.5%). Higher mean lower respiratory symptom score was associated with lower percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers of oxidative stress may serve as indicators of arterial stiffness in wildland firefighters.

Lysine glutarylation is a protein posttranslational modification regulated by SIRT5

We report the identification and characterization of a five-carbon protein posttranslational modification (PTM) called lysine glutarylation (Kglu). This protein modification was detected by immunoblot and mass spectrometry (MS), and then comprehensively validated by chemical and biochemical methods. We demonstrated that the previously annotated deacetylase, sirtuin 5 (SIRT5), is a lysine deglutarylase. Proteome-wide analysis identified 683 Kglu sites in 191 proteins and showed that Kglu is highly enriched on metabolic enzymes and mitochondrial proteins. We validated carbamoyl phosphate synthase 1 (CPS1), the rate-limiting enzyme in urea cycle, as a glutarylated protein and demonstrated that CPS1 is targeted by SIRT5 for deglutarylation. We further showed that glutarylation suppresses CPS1 enzymatic activity in cell lines, mice, and a model of glutaric acidemia type I disease, the last of which has elevated glutaric acid and glutaryl-CoA. This study expands the landscape of lysine acyl modifications and increases our understanding of the deacylase SIRT5.