How can we identify the high-risk patient?

Predicting Risk of Post-Operative Morbidity and Mortality following Gynaecological Oncology Surgery (PROMEGO): A Global Gynaecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative Led Study

The medical complexity of surgical patients is increasing, and surgical risk calculators are crucial in providing high-value, patient-centered surgical care. However, pre-existing models are not validated to accurately predict risk for major gynecological oncology surgeries, and many are not generalizable to low- and middle-income country settings (LMICs). The international GO SOAR database dataset was used to develop a novel predictive surgical risk calculator for post-operative morbidity and mortality following gynecological surgery. Fifteen candidate features readily available pre-operatively across both high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs were selected. Predictive modeling analyses using machine learning methods and linear regression were performed. The area-under-the-receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated to assess overall discriminatory performance. Neural networks (AUROC 0.94) significantly outperformed other models (p < 0.001) for evaluating the accuracy of prediction across three groups, i.e., minor morbidity (Clavien-Dindo I-II), major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo III-V), and no morbidity. Logistic-regression modeling outperformed the clinically established SORT model in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.66 versus 0.61, p < 0.001). The GO SOAR surgical risk prediction model is the first that is validated for use in patients undergoing gynecological surgery. Accurate surgical risk predictions are vital within the context of major cytoreduction surgery, where surgery and its associated complications can diminish quality-of-life and affect long-term cancer survival. A model that requires readily available pre-operative data, irrespective of resource setting, is crucial to reducing global surgical disparities.

Frailty is associated with 90-day mortality in urgent thoracic surgery conditions

Objective

In patients undergoing elective thoracic surgery, frailty is associated with worse outcomes. However, the magnitude by which frailty influences outcomes of urgent thoracic surgery (UTS) is unknown.

Methods

We identified patients admitted with a UTS condition from January to September 2017 in the National Readmissions Database. UTS conditions were classified as esophageal perforation, hemo/pneumothorax, rib fracture, and obstructed hiatal hernia. Outcome of interest was mortality within 90 days of index admission. Frailty score was calculated using a deficit accumulation method. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to calculate a hazard ratio for each combination of UTS disease type and frailty score, adjusted for sex, insurance payor, hospital size, and hospital and patient location, and was compared with the effect of frailty on elective lung lobectomy.

Results

We identified 107,487 patients with a UTS condition. Among UTS conditions overall, increasing frailty elements were associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 2270; 95% CI, 1463-3523; P < .001). Compared with patients without frailty undergoing elective lobectomy, increasing frailty demonstrated trending toward increased mortality in all diagnoses. The magnitude of the effect of frailty on 90-day mortality differed depending on the disease and level of frailty.

Conclusions

The effect of frailty on 90-day mortality after admission for urgent thoracic surgery conditions varies by disease type and level of frailty. Among UTS disease types, increasing frailty was associated with a higher 90-day risk of mortality. These findings suggest a valuable role for frailty evaluation in both clinical settings and administrative data for risk assessment.

Practical Considerations of Perioperative Assessment and Optimization in Major Colorectal Surgery

Successful outcomes after colorectal surgery result not only from technique in the operating room, but also from optimization of the patient prior to surgery. This article will discuss the role of preoperative assessment and optimization in the colorectal surgery patient. Through discussion of the various clinical models, readers will understand the range of options available for optimization. This study will also present information on how to design a preoperative clinic and the barriers to success.

Impact of Goal-Directed Fluid Therapy on Postoperative Outcomes in Colorectal Surgery: An Evidence-Based Review

PURPOSE

To investigate the effects of goal-directed fluid therapy (GDFT) or conventional fluid therapy (CFT) in improving postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing colorectal surgeries.

DESIGN

Evidence-Based Review.

METHODS

Following the guidelines outlined in the PRISMA statement, a comprehensive search was conducted using PubMed, Elsevier ScienceDirect, Oxford Academic, EBSCO, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, and gray literature. Only randomized controlled studies and pre-appraised evidence such as systematic review with meta-analysis examining the effects of GDFT and CFT in colorectal surgery were included. The quality appraisal of the literature was conducted using the proposed algorithm described in the Johns Hopkins Nursing Evidence-Based Practice Evidence Level and Quality Guide.

FINDINGS

Two systematic reviews with meta-analyses and four randomized controlled trials (RCT) involving 2018 patients were included in this review. Overall, the use of GDFT did not shorten the hospital length of stay (LOS), reduce 30-day mortality, lower overall morbidity rates, or decrease incidence of postoperative ileus. Additionally, the return of bowel function was not improved using GDFT or CFT. However, when GDFT was implemented within enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programs, there was a significant reduction in hospital LOS. . When GDFT was used in a non-ERAS patient care setting, there was a significant reduction in overall morbidity rate and faster time to first flatus. All studies included in the review were categorized as Level I and rated Grade A, implying strong confidence in the true effects of GDFT on all outcome measures in the review.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of GDFT in colorectal surgery are still unclear. Considerable heterogeneity based on the types of GDFT devices, patient outcome parameters, and fluid protocols limit the application to clinical practice. Furthermore, there was limited data on the effects of GDFT in high-risk patients for colorectal surgery.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC SCORE FOR THE CHOICE OF CHIVA HEMODYNAMIC SURGERY AS A TREATMENT METHOD FOR VARICOSE VEINS OF THE LOWER EXTREMITIES

OBJECTIVE

The aim: To work out the predictive system that can help to determine the group of patients to whom the hemodynamic surgery of varicose disease, CHIVA, is beneficial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and methods: Results of examination and treatment of 58 patients of the main group who underwent hemodynamic surgery and 65 patients of the comparison group who underwent stripping. Patients of both groups were evaluated in the preoperative period using an evaluation scale, and divided into three subgroups depending on the scores: 5- 8, 9 - 11, and 12 - 15 points.

RESULTS

Results: The best treatment results with the lowest number of relapses were obtained in the subgroup of patients with low scores on the prognostic scale (5-8 points) after hemodynamic treatment and in the subgroup of patients with a high the number of points (12 -15 points) after the classic stripping (p < 0.05). The same subgroups received more improvement in the quality of life of patients according to CIVIQ 20 (p < 0.001). The subgroup of patients with a high number of points (12 -15 points) after the stripping received significantly more reduction in scores VCSS (p < 0,01).

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: Comprehensive assessment of factors such as the anamnestic duration of the disease, the diameter of the great saphenous vein, the presence of skin complications, dilated varicose collaterals and previous surgical treatment using a prognostic preoperative assessment score allows the surgeon to be more clearly guided in choosing the optimal method of treatment for each patient and achieve the best treatment results.

National clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of symptomatic gallstone disease: 2021 recommendations from the Danish Surgical Society

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Gallstones are highly prevalent, and more than 9000 cholecystectomies are performed annually in Denmark. The aim of this guideline was to improve the clinical course of patients with gallstone disease including a subgroup of high-risk patients. Outcomes included reduction of complications, readmissions, and need for additional interventions in patients with uncomplicated gallstone disease, acute cholecystitis, and common bile duct stones (CBDS).

METHODS

An interdisciplinary group of clinicians developed the guideline according to the GRADE methodology. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were primarily included. Non-RCTs were included if RCTs could not answer the clinical questions. Recommendations were strong or weak depending on effect estimates, quality of evidence, and patient preferences.

RESULTS

For patients with acute cholecystitis, acute laparoscopic cholecystectomy is recommended (16 RCTs, strong recommendation). Gallbladder drainage may be used as an interval procedure before a delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with temporary contraindications to surgery and severe acute cholecystitis (1 RCT and 1 non-RCT, weak recommendation). High-risk patients are suggested to undergo acute laparoscopic cholecystectomy instead of drainage (1 RCT and 1 non-RCT, weak recommendation). For patients with CBDS, a one-step procedure with simultaneous laparoscopic cholecystectomy and CBDS removal by laparoscopy or endoscopy is recommended (22 RCTs, strong recommendation). In high-risk patients with CBDS, laparoscopic cholecystectomy is suggested to be included in the treatment (6 RCTs, weak recommendation). For diagnosis of CBDS, the use of magnetic resonance imaging or endoscopic ultrasound prior to surgical treatment is recommended (8 RCTs, strong recommendation). For patients with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstone disease, observation is suggested as an alternative to laparoscopic cholecystectomy (2 RCTs, weak recommendation).

CONCLUSIONS

Seven recommendations, four weak and three strong, for treating patients with symptomatic gallstone disease were developed. Studies for treatment of high-risk patients are few and more are needed.

ENDORSEMENT

The Danish Surgical Society.

Management of Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Survey to Assess Adherence to Guidelines Across the United Kingdom and Ireland

Introduction: Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common surgical problem requiring hospitalization in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. The first UK lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) management guidelines were published in 2019 by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG). We aimed to evaluate self-reported adherence to BSG clinical guidance (CG) within the UK and Ireland.

Methods and materials: A Questionnaire was designed based on LGIB BSG CG 2019 using Google Forms (Google LLC, Mountain View, CA). This was distributed to surgical consultants and senior surgical practitioners (specialists, Trust grade registrars, and specialist registrars) across different centers in the UK and Ireland over four weeks (13th March to 5th April 2021). Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA).

Results: A total of 64 responses were recorded from 18 different centers in the UK and Ireland. The ratio of consultants and registrars was almost the same (34:30, 53.1%:46.9%). The majority of respondents were from colorectal surgery (65.6%, n=42) followed by general surgeons (23.4%, n=15). A total of 41 respondents (64.1%) admitted that BSG CG 2019 were practically applicable at their center. Approximately 75% of respondents did not use or were unaware of the Shock index or Oakland score to stratify patients. That translated into 59% opting to admit patients with a minor bleed. Around 36% wanted to perform a CT angiogram for a stable major bleed, while 37% were unaware of the interventional radiology (IR) referral pathway.

Conclusion: There is patchy adherence to the guidelines leading to significant variations in LGIB management practice and avoidable admissions.

Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS

BACKGROUND

Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged ≥18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death ≥2 and report associated 2-yr survival.

RESULTS

We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without.

CONCLUSION

One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).

The impact of the incorporation of a feasible postoperative mortality model at the Post-Anaesthestic Care Unit (PACU) on postoperative clinical deterioration: A pragmatic trial with 5,353 patients

Background

Practical use of risk predictive tools and the assessment of their impact on outcome reduction is still a challenge. This pragmatic study of quality improvement (QI) describes the preoperative adoption of a customised postoperative death probability model (SAMPE model) and the evaluation of the impact of a Postoperative Anaesthetic Care Unit (PACU) pathway on the clinical deterioration of high-risk surgical patients.

Methods

A prospective cohort of 2,533 surgical patients compared with 2,820 historical controls after the adoption of a quality improvement (QI) intervention. We carried out quick postoperative high-risk pathways at PACU when the probability of postoperative death exceeded 5%. As outcome measures, we used the number of rapid response team (RRT) calls within 7 and 30 postoperative days, in-hospital mortality, and non-planned Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission.

Results

Not only did the QI succeed in the implementation of a customised risk stratification model, but it also diminished the postoperative deterioration evaluated by RRT calls on very high-risk patients within 30 postoperative days (from 23% before to 14% after the intervention, p = 0.05). We achieved no survival benefits or reduction of non-planned ICU. The small group of high-risk patients (13% of the total) accounted for the highest proportion of RRT calls and postoperative death.

Conclusion

Employing a risk predictive tool to guide immediate postoperative care may influence postoperative deterioration. It encouraged the design of pragmatic trials focused on feasible, low-technology, and long-term interventions that can be adapted to diverse health systems, especially those that demand more accurate decision making and ask for full engagement in the control of postoperative morbi-mortality.

Impact of frailty on clinical outcomes and resource use following emergency general surgery in the United States

Background

Frailty has been recognized as an independent risk factor for inferior outcomes, but its effect on emergency general surgery (EGS) is understudied.

Objective

The purpose of the present study was to define the impact of frailty on risk-adjusted mortality, non-home discharge, and readmission following EGS operations.

Methods

Adults undergoing appendectomy, cholecystectomy, small bowel resection, large bowel resection, repair of perforated ulcer, or laparotomy within two days of an urgent admission were identified in the 2016–2017 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Frailty was defined using diagnosis codes corresponding to the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups frailty indicator. Multivariable regression was used to study in-hospital mortality and non-home discharge by operation, and Kaplan Meier analysis to study freedom from unplanned readmission at up to 90-days follow-up.

Results

Among 655,817 patients, 11.9% were considered frail. Frail patients most commonly underwent large bowel resection (37.3%) and cholecystectomy (29.2%). After adjustment, frail patients had higher mortality rates for all operations compared to nonfrail, including those most commonly performed (11.9% [95% CI 11.4–12.5%] vs 6.0% [95% CI 5.8–6.3%] for large bowel resection; 2.3% [95% CI 2.0–2.6%] vs 0.2% [95% CI 0.2–0.2%] for cholecystectomy). Adjusted non-home discharge rates were higher for frail compared to nonfrail patients following all operations, including large bowel resection (68.1% [95% CI 67.1–69.0%] vs 25.9% [95% CI 25.2–26.5%]) and cholecystectomy (33.7% [95% CI 32.7–34.7%] vs 2.9% [95% CI 2.8–3.0%]). Adjusted hospitalization costs were nearly twice as high for frail patients. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, frail patients had greater unplanned readmissions (log rank P<0.001), with 1 in 4 rehospitalized within 90 days.

Conclusions

Frail patients have inferior clinical outcomes and greater resource use following EGS, with the greatest absolute differences following complex operations. Simple frailty assessments may inform expectations, identify patients at risk of poor outcomes, and guide the need for more intensive postoperative care.

Asymmetric dimethylarginine predicts perioperative cardiovascular complications in patients undergoing medium-to-high risk non-cardiac surgery

Objectives

Perioperative cardiovascular events remain an important factor that affects surgery outcome. We assessed if asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthesis, predicts perioperative risk, and if pre-operative supplementation with L-arginine/L-citrulline improves the plasma L-arginine/ADMA ratio.

Methods

In this prospective study, planned thoracic and/or abdominal surgery patients were randomized to receive L-arginine/L-citrulline (5 g/day) or placebo 1 to 5 days before surgery. We measured perioperative plasma ADMA and L-arginine levels. The primary outcome was a 30-day combined cardiovascular endpoint.

Results

Among 269 patients, 23 (8.6%) experienced a major adverse cardiovascular event. ADMA and C-reactive protein were significantly associated with the incidence of cardiovascular complications in the multivariable-adjusted analysis. The L-arginine plasma concentration was significantly higher on the day of surgery with L-arginine/L-citrulline supplementation compared with placebo. In patients with high pre-operative ADMA, there was a non-significant trend towards reduced incidence of the primary endpoint with L-arginine/L-citrulline supplementation (six vs. nine events).

Conclusions

ADMA is a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular complications in the perioperative period for patients who are undergoing major abdominal and/or thoracic surgery. Supplementation with L-arginine/L-citrulline increased the L-arginine plasma concentration, enhanced the L-arginine/ADMA ratio, and induced a trend towards fewer perioperative events.

Pathway for enhanced recovery after spinal surgery-a systematic review of evidence for use of individual components

BACKGROUND

Enhanced recovery in spinal surgery (ERSS) has shown promising improvements in clinical and economical outcomes. We have proposed an ERSS pathway based on available evidence. We aimed to delineate the clinical efficacy of individual pathway components in ERSS through a systematic narrative review.

METHODS

We included systematic reviews and meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, non-randomized controlled studies, and observational studies in adults and pediatric patients evaluating any one of the 22 pre-defined components. Our primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, morbidity outcomes (e.g., pulmonary, cardiac, renal, surgical complications), patient-reported outcomes and experiences (e.g., pain, quality of care experience), and health services outcomes (e.g., length of stay and costs). Following databases (1990 onwards) were searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and CENTRAL). Two authors screened the citations, full-text articles, and extracted data. A narrative synthesis was provided. We constructed Evidence Profile (EP) tables for each component of the pathway, where appropriate information was available. Due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity, we did not conduct a meta-analyses. GRADE system was used to classify confidence in cumulative evidence for each component of the pathway.

RESULTS

We identified 5423 relevant studies excluding duplicates as relating to the 22 pre-defined components of enhanced recovery in spinal surgery. We included 664 studies in the systematic review. We identified specific evidence within the context of spinal surgery for 14/22 proposed components. Evidence was summarized in EP tables where suitable. We performed thematic synthesis without EP for 6/22 elements. We identified appropriate societal guidelines for the remainder of the components.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified the following components with high quality of evidence as per GRADE system: pre-emptive analgesia, peri-operative blood conservation (antifibrinolytic use), surgical site preparation and antibiotic prophylaxis. There was moderate level of evidence for implementation of prehabilitation, minimally invasive surgery, multimodal perioperative analgesia, intravenous lignocaine and ketamine use as well as early mobilization. This review allows for the first formalized evidence-based unified protocol in the field of ERSS. Further studies validating the multimodal ERSS framework are essential to guide the future evolution of care in patients undergoing spinal surgery.

The effect of adding goal-directed hemodynamic management for elective patients in an established enhanced recovery program for colorectal surgery: results of quasi-experimental pragmatic trial

Background

Recent literature has demonstrated that hemodynamic instability in the intraoperative period places patients at risk of poor outcomes. Furthermore, recent studies have reported that stroke volume optimization and protocolized hemodynamic management may improve perioperative outcomes, especially surgical site infection (SSI), in certain high-risk populations. However, the optimal strategy for intraoperative management of all elective patients within an enhanced recovery program remains to be elucidated.

Methods

We performed a pre-post quasi-experimental study to assess the effect of adding goal-directed hemodynamic therapy to an enhanced recovery program (ERP) for colorectal surgery on SSI and other outcomes. Three groups were compared: “Pre-ERP,” defined as historical control (before enhanced recovery program); “ERP,” defined as enhanced recovery program using zero fluid balance; and “ERP+GDHT,” defined as enhanced recovery program plus goal-directed hemodynamic therapy. Outcomes were obtained through our National Surgical Quality Improvement Program participation.

Results

A total of 623 patients were included in the final analysis (Pre-ERP = 246, ERP = 140, and ERP + GDHT = 237). Demographics and baseline clinical characteristics were balanced between groups. We did not observe statistically significant differences in SSI or composite complication rates in unadjusted or adjusted analysis. There was no evidence of association between study group and 30-day readmission. American Society of Anesthesiologists status ≥ 3 and open surgical approach were significantly associated with increased risk of SSI, composite complication, and 30-day readmission (p < 0.05 for all) in all groups.

Conclusions

There was no evidence that addition of goal-directed hemodynamic therapy for all patients in an enhanced recovery program for colorectal surgery affects the risk of SSI, composite complications, or 30-day readmission. Further research is needed to investigate whether there is benefit of goal-directed hemodynamic therapy for select high-risk populations.

Trial registration

NCT03189550. Registered 16 June 2017–Retrospectively registered, https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=NCT03189550&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

Documentation of individualized preoperative risk assessment: a multi-center study

Background

Individual surgical risk assessment (ISRA) enhances patient care experience and outcomes by informing shared decision-making, strengthening the consent process, and supporting clinical management. Neither the use of individual pre-surgical risk assessment tools nor the rate of individual risk assessment documentation is known. The primary endpoint of this study was to determine the rate of physician documented ISRAs, with or without a named ISRA tool, within the records of patients with poor outcomes. Secondary endpoints of this work included the effects of age, sex, race, ASA class, and time and type of surgery on the rate of documented presurgical risk.

Methods

The records of non-obstetric surgical patients within 22 community-based private hospitals in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, and Wyoming, between January 1 and December 31, 2017, were evaluated. A two-sample proportion test was used to identify the difference between surgical documentation and anesthesiology documentation of risk. Logistic regression was used to analyze both individual and group effects associated with secondary endpoints.

Results

Seven hundred fifty-six of 140,756 inpatient charts met inclusion criteria (0.54%, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.58%). ISRAs were documented by 16.08% of surgeons and 4.76% of anesthesiologists (p < 0.0001, 95% CI −0.002 to 0.228). Cardiac surgeons documented ISRAs more frequently than non-cardiac surgeons (25.87% vs 16.15%) [p = 0.0086, R-squared = 0.970%]. Elective surgical patients were more likely than emergency surgical patients (19.57 vs 12.03%) to have risk documented (p = 0.023, R-squared = 0.730%). Patients over the age of 65 were more likely than patients under the age of 65 to have ISRA documentation (20.31 vs 14.61%) [p = 0.043, R-squared = 0.580%]. Only 10 of 756 (1.3%) records included documentation of a named ISRA tool.

Conclusions

The observed rate of documented ISRA in our sample was extremely low. Surgeons were more likely than anesthesiologists to document ISRA. As these individualized risk assessment discussions form the bedrock of perioperative informed consent, the rate and quality of risk documentation must be improved.

Epidemiology and outcome of high-surgical-risk patients admitted to an intensive care unit in Brazil

Objective

To define the epidemiological profile and the main determinants of morbidity and mortality in noncardiac high surgical risk patients in Brazil.

Methods

This was a prospective, observational and multicenter study. All noncardiac surgical patients admitted to intensive care units, i.e., those considered high risk, within a 1-month period were evaluated and monitored daily for a maximum of 7 days in the intensive care unit to determine complications. The 28-day postoperative, intensive care unit and hospital mortality rates were evaluated.

Results

Twenty-nine intensive care units participated in the study. Surgeries were performed in 25,500 patients, of whom 904 (3.5%) were high-risk (95% confidence interval - 95%CI 3.3% - 3.8%) and were included in the study. Of the participating patients, 48.3% were from private intensive care units, and 51.7% were from public intensive care units. The length of stay in the intensive care unit was 2.0 (1.0 - 4.0) days, and the length of hospital stay was 9.5 (5.4 - 18.6) days. The complication rate was 29.9% (95%CI 26.4 - 33.7), and the 28-day postoperative mortality rate was 9.6% (95%CI 7.4 - 12.1). The independent risk factors for complications were the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3; odds ratio - OR = 1.02; 95%CI 1.01 - 1.03) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) on admission to the intensive care unit (OR = 1.17; 95%CI 1.09 - 1.25), surgical time (OR = 1.001, 95%CI 1.000 - 1.002) and emergency surgeries (OR = 1.93, 95%CI, 1.10 - 3.38). In addition, there were associations with 28-day mortality (OR = 1.032; 95%CI 1.011 - 1.052), SAPS 3 (OR = 1.041; 95%CI 1.107 - 1.279), SOFA (OR = 1.175, 95%CI 1.069 - 1.292) and emergency surgeries (OR = 2.509; 95%CI 1.040 - 6.051).

Conclusion

Higher prognostic scores, elderly patients, longer surgical times and emergency surgeries were strongly associated with higher 28-day mortality and more complications during the intensive care unit stay.

Use of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator During Preoperative Risk Discussion: The Patient Perspective

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS Calculator) provides empirically derived, patient-specific risks for common adverse perioperative outcomes. The ACS Calculator is promoted as a tool to improve shared decision-making and informed consent for patients undergoing elective operations. However, to our knowledge, no data exist regarding the use of this tool in actual preoperative risk discussions with patients. Accordingly, we performed a survey to assess (1) whether patients find the tool easy to interpret, (2) how accurately patients can predict their surgical risks, and (3) the impact of risk disclosure on levels of anxiety and future motivations to decrease personal risk.

METHODS

Patients (N = 150) recruited from a preoperative clinic completed an initial survey where they estimated their hospital length of stay and personal perioperative risks of the 12 clinical complications analyzed by the ACS Calculator. Next, risk calculation was performed by entering participants' demographics into the ACS Calculator. Participants reviewed their individualized risk reports in detail and then completed a follow-up survey to evaluate their perceptions.

RESULTS

Nearly 90% of participants desire to review their ACS Calculator report before future surgical consents. High-risk patients were 3 times more likely to underestimate their risk of any complication, serious complication, and length of stay compared to low-risk patients (P < .001). After reviewing their calculated risks, 70% stated that they would consider participating in prehabilitation to decrease perioperative risk, and nearly 40% would delay their surgery to do so. Knowledge of personal ACS risk calculations had no effect on anxiety in 20% and decreased anxiety in 71% of participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACS Calculator may be of particular benefit to high-risk surgical populations by providing realistic expectations of outcomes and recovery. Use of this tool may also provide motivation for patients to participate in risk reduction strategies.

The Outcomes Of Serial Cerebrospinal Fluid Removal In Elderly Patients With Idiopathic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

Purpose

Elderly patients with iNPH (idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus) might be potentially high-risk surgical patients. Our purpose was to investigate the outcome of serial removal of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in the patients with iNPH who refused to have the ventriculoperitoneal or lumboperitoneal shunt surgery or had contraindications to them.

Patients and methods

There were 42 patients, with a median age of 78 years. Recurrent CSF removal was performed when the patients had deteriorated gait which was defined as >10% pre-removal change on the average of two walking trials during timed up and go (TUG). All the patients underwent mini-mental status examination (MMSE), frontal assessment battery (FAB), Stroop test, Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA), TUG and nine-hole peg test (NHPT) with the dominant hand, before and after CSF removal.

Results

Thirty-five patients had two CSF removal procedures with a mean interim period of 7.4 months ranging from 1.5 to 35 months. Thirteen patients had three CSF removal procedures. The mean TUG scores were decreased after the first, second and third procedures (p<0.001; p<0.001; p=0.007; respectively). The POMA scores including both gait and balance components improved after the first and second procedures (p<0.05; for each). After the third procedure, the increase in POMA-balance score was statistically significant (p<0.05). After the first procedure, the FAB scores and NHPT scores were significantly improved (p<0.02). The median follow-up duration of the patients was 34.5 months.

Conclusion

The deterioration of gait disturbance may be improved, and cognitive decline may be stabilized, at least postponed, by applying recurrent CSF removal in those unshunted patients with iNPH.

The role of the American Society of anesthesiologists physical status classification in predicting trauma mortality and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Trauma prediction scores such as Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS)) are used to predict mortality, but do not include comorbidities. We analyzed the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA PS) for predicting mortality in trauma patients undergoing surgery.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective study compared the mortality predictive ability of ASA PS, RTS, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and TRISS using a complete case analysis with mixed effects logistic regression. Associations with mortality and AROC were calculated for each measure alone and tested for differences using chi-square.

RESULTS

Of 3,042 patients, 230 (8%) died. The AROC for mortality for TRISS was 0.938 (95%CI 0.921, 0.954), RTS 0.845 (95%CI 0.815, 0.875), and ASA PS 0.886 (95%CI 0.864, 0.908). ASA PS + TRISS did not improve mortality predictive ability (p = 0.18).

CONCLUSIONS

ASA PS was a good predictor of mortality in trauma patients, although combined with TRISS it did not improve predictive ability.

Geriatric Pharmacology: An Update

An aging worldwide population demands that anesthesiologists consider geriatrics a unique subset of patients requiring customization of practice. This article reviews the current literature investigating physiologic changes of the elderly that affect pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Changes in drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are discussed as well as the ultimate effects of medications. Implications for practice regarding specific anesthetic and analgesic drugs are addressed. Despite the immense body of research that contributes to understanding of geriatric pharmacology, elderly patients often are excluded from rigorous research trials, and further scientific investigation to inform best practices for this group of patients is needed.

Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) as an Added Predictor to Existing Preoperative Risk Assessments

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment strategies, such as using the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, attempt to identify surgical high-risk patients. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a biomarker reflecting overall systemic inflammation and immune activation, and it could potentially improve the identification of high-risk surgical patients.

METHODS

We included patients acutely admitted to the emergency department who subsequently underwent surgery within 90 days of admission. Patients were stratified into low-risk or high-risk groups, according to ASA classification (ASA_low: ASA I-II; ASA_high: ASA III-VI) and suPAR level, measured at admission (suPAR_high above and suPAR_low below 5.5 ng/ml), respectively. Pre-specified complications were identified in national registries and electronic medical records. The association between ASA classification, suPAR level, CRP and the rate of postoperative complications was analyzed with logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, estimating odds ratios and hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

During 90-day follow-up from surgery, 31 (7.0%) patients died and 158 (35.6%) patients had postoperative complications. After adjusting for age, sex, and ASA classification, the HR for 90-day postoperative mortality was 2.5 (95% CI 1.6-4.0) for every doubling of suPAR level. suPAR was significantly better than CRP at predicting mortality and all complications (P = 0.0036 and P = 0.0041, respectively). Combining ASA classification and suPAR level significantly improved prediction of mortality and the occurrence of a postoperative complication within 90 days after surgery (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Measuring suPAR levels in acutely admitted patients may aid in identifying high-risk patients and improve prediction of postoperative complications.

A Risk Stratification Model for Cardiovascular Complications during the 3-Month Period after Major Elective Vascular Surgery

Introduction

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is an extensively used simple risk stratification tool advocated by the European Society of Cardiology and European Society of Anesthesiology (ESC/ESA).

Purpose

The aim of this study was to find the best model for predicting 3-month cardiovascular complications in elective major vascular surgical patients using preoperative clinical assessment, calculation of the RCRI and Vascular Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (V-POSSUM) scores, and the preoperative levels of N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP), high-sensitivity troponin I (hs TnI), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs CRP).

Materials and Methods

We included 122 participants in a prospective, single-center, observational study. The levels of NT pro-BNP, hs CRP, and hs TnI were measured 48 hours prior to surgery. During the perioperative period and 90 days after surgery the following adverse cardiac events were recorded: myocardial infarction, arrhythmias, pulmonary edema, acute decompensated heart failure, and cardiac arrest.

Results

During the first 3 months after surgery 29 participants (23.8%) had 50 cardiac complications. There was a statistically significant difference in the RCRI score between participants with and without cardiac complications. ROC analysis showed that a combination of RCRI with hs TnI has good discriminatory power (AUC 0.909, p<0,001). By adding NT pro-BNP concentrations to the RCRI+hs TnI+V-POSSSUM combination we obtained the model with the best predictive power for 3-month cardiac complications (AUC 0.963, p<0,001).

Conclusion

We need to improve preoperative risk assessment in participants scheduled for major vascular surgery by combining their clinical scores with biomarkers. Therefore, it is possible to identify patients at risk of cardiovascular complications who need adequate preoperative diagnosis and treatment.

Effect of postoperative goal-directed therapy in cancer patients undergoing high-risk surgery: a randomized clinical trial and meta-analysis

Background

Perioperative goal-directed hemodynamic therapy (GDHT) has been advocated in high-risk patients undergoing noncardiac surgery to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that using cardiac index (CI)-guided GDHT in the postoperative period for patients undergoing high-risk surgery for cancer treatment would reduce 30-day mortality and postoperative complications.

Methods

A randomized, parallel-group, superiority trial was performed in a tertiary oncology hospital. All adult patients undergoing high-risk cancer surgery who required intensive care unit admission were randomly allocated to a CI-guided GDHT group or to a usual care group. In the GDHT group, postoperative therapy aimed at CI ≥ 2.5 L/min/m² using fluids, inotropes and red blood cells during the first 8 postoperative hours. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe postoperative complications during the hospital stay. A meta-analysis was also conducted including all randomized trials of postoperative GDHT published from 1966 to May 2017.

Results

A total of 128 patients (64 in each group) were randomized. The primary outcome occurred in 34 patients of the GDHT group and in 28 patients of the usual care group (53.1% vs 43.8%, absolute difference 9.4 (95% CI, − 7.8 to 25.8); p = 0.3). During the 8-h intervention period more patients in the GDHT group received dobutamine when compared to the usual care group (55% vs 16%, p < 0.001). A meta-analysis of nine randomized trials showed no differences in postoperative mortality (risk ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.59–1.23; p = 0.4; p for heterogeneity = 0.7; I² = 0%) and in the overall complications rate (risk ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.71–1.08; p = 0.2; p for heterogeneity = 0.07; I² = 48%), but a reduced hospital length of stay in the GDHT group (mean difference (MD) – 1.6; 95% CI – 2.75 to − 0.46; p = 0.006; p for heterogeneity = 0.002; I² = 74%).

Conclusions

CI-guided hemodynamic therapy in the first 8 postoperative hours does not reduce 30-day mortality and severe complications during hospital stay when compared to usual care in cancer patients undergoing high-risk surgery.

Trial registration

www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01946269. Registered on 16 September 2013.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-018-2055-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Impact of an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Program on Patients Treated for Gynecologic Cancer in the Community Hospital Setting

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of gynecologic oncology patients treated in the community hospital setting either under the auspices of an enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocol or in accordance with physician discretion.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated a series of consecutive gynecologic oncology patients who were managed via open surgery in coincident with an ERAS pathway from January 2015 to December 2016. They were compared with a historical open surgery cohort who was treated from November 2013 to December 2014. The primary clinical end points encompassed hospital length of stay, hospital costs, and patient readmission rates.

Results

There were 86 subjects accrued in the ERAS group and 91 patients in the historical cohort. The implementation of ERAS occasioned a greater than 3-day mean reduction in hospital stay (8.04 days for the historical group vs 4.88 days for the ERAS subjects; P = 0.001) and correspondingly diminished hospital costs ($11,877.47/patient vs $9305.26/patient; P = 0.04). Moreover, there were 2 readmissions (2.3%) in the ERAS group compared with 4 (4.4%) in the historical cohort (P = 0.282).

Conclusions

The results from our investigation suggest that adhering to an ERAS protocol confers beneficial hospital length of stay and hospital cost outcomes, without compromising patient readmission rates. Additional investigation scrutinizing the impact of ERAS enactment with more defined study variables in a larger, randomized setting is warranted.

Is It Possible to Predict the Future in First-Episode Psychosis?

The outcome of first-episode psychosis (FEP) is highly variable, ranging from early sustained recovery to antipsychotic treatment resistance from the onset of illness. For clinicians, a possibility to predict patient outcomes would be highly valuable for the selection of antipsychotic treatment and in tailoring psychosocial treatments and psychoeducation. This selective review summarizes current knowledge of prognostic markers in FEP. We sought potential outcome predictors from clinical and sociodemographic factors, cognition, brain imaging, genetics, and blood-based biomarkers, and we considered different outcomes, like remission, recovery, physical comorbidities, and suicide risk. Based on the review, it is currently possible to predict the future for FEP patients to some extent. Some clinical features-like the longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP), poor premorbid adjustment, the insidious mode of onset, the greater severity of negative symptoms, comorbid substance use disorders (SUDs), a history of suicide attempts and suicidal ideation and having non-affective psychosis-are associated with a worse outcome. Of the social and demographic factors, male gender, social disadvantage, neighborhood deprivation, dysfunctional family environment, and ethnicity may be relevant. Treatment non-adherence is a substantial risk factor for relapse, but a small minority of patients with acute onset of FEP and early remission may benefit from antipsychotic discontinuation. Cognitive functioning is associated with functional outcomes. Brain imaging currently has limited utility as an outcome predictor, but this may change with methodological advancements. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might be useful as one component of a predictive tool, and pharmacogenetic testing is already available and valuable for patients who have problems in treatment response or with side effects. Most blood-based biomarkers need further validation. None of the currently available predictive markers has adequate sensitivity or specificity used alone. However, personalized treatment of FEP will need predictive tools. We discuss some methodologies, such as machine learning (ML), and tools that could lead to the improved prediction and clinical utility of different prognostic markers in FEP. Combination of different markers in ML models with a user friendly interface, or novel findings from e.g., molecular genetics or neuroimaging, may result in computer-assisted clinical applications in the near future.

The impact of presurgical comorbidities on discharge disposition and length of hospitalization following craniotomy for brain tumor

BACKGROUND

Identifying risk factors for negative postoperative outcomes is an important part of providing quality care. Here, we build machine learning (ML) ensembles to model the independent impact of presurgical comorbidities on discharge disposition and length of stay (LOS) following brain tumor resection from the HCUP National Inpatient Sample (NIS).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 41,222 patients who underwent craniotomy for brain tumors during 2002-2011 and were registered in the NIS. Twenty-six ML algorithms were trained on prehospitalization variables to predict nonhome discharge and extended LOS (>7 days), and the most predictive algorithms combined to create ensemble models. Models were validated to demonstrate generalizability. Analysis was done to identify which and how specific comorbidities influence ensemble predictions.

RESULTS

Receiver operating curve analysis showed area under the curve of 0.796 and 0.824 for the disposition and LOS ensembles, respectively. The disposition ensemble was most strongly influenced by preoperative paralysis and fluid/electrolyte abnormalities, which independently increased the risk of nonhome discharge in craniotomy patients by 35.4% and 13.9%, respectively. The LOS ensemble was most strongly influenced by the presence of preoperative paralysis, fluid/electrolyte abnormalities, and other nonparalysis neurological deficits, which independently increased the risk of extended LOS in craniotomy patients by 20.4%, 22.5%, and 38.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we used ML ensembles to identify preoperative comorbidities that increased the risk of nonhome discharge and extended LOS following craniotomy for brain tumor. Recognizing these risk factors for poor postsurgical outcomes can improve patient counseling and offer opportunities for quality improvement.

2016 Focused Update: Clinical Recommendations for Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Data Assessment in Specific Patient Populations

In the past several decades, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) has seen an exponential increase in its evidence base. The growing volume of evidence in support of CPX has precipitated the release of numerous scientific statements by societies and associations. In 2012, the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation and the American Heart Association developed a joint document with the primary intent of redefining CPX analysis and reporting in a way that would streamline test interpretation and increase clinical application. Specifically, the 2012 joint scientific statement on CPX conceptualized an easy-to-use, clinically meaningful analysis based on evidence-vetted variables in color-coded algorithms; single-page algorithms were successfully developed for each proposed test indication. Because of an abundance of new CPX research in recent years and a reassessment of the current algorithms in light of the body of evidence, a focused update to the 2012 scientific statement is now warranted. The purposes of this update are to confirm algorithms included in the initial scientific statement not requiring revision, to propose revisions to algorithms included in the initial scientific statement, to propose new algorithms based on emerging scientific evidence, to further clarify the application of oxygen consumption at ventilatory threshold, to describe CPX variables with an emerging scientific evidence base, to describe the synergistic value of combining CPX with other assessments, to discuss personnel considerations for CPX laboratories, and to provide recommendations for future CPX research.