Cost-effectiveness analysis of ultrasonography screening for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Diagnosis and non-invasive assessment of MASLD in type 2 diabetes and obesity

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease and an important cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. It is strongly associated with type 2 diabetes and obesity. Because of the huge number of patients at risk of MASLD, it is imperative to use non-invasive tests appropriately.

AIMS

To provide a narrative review on the performance and limitations of non-invasive tests, with a special emphasis on the impact of diabetes and obesity.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases for articles published from 1990 to August 2023.

RESULTS

Abdominal ultrasonography remains the primary method to diagnose hepatic steatosis, while magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction is currently the gold standard to quantify steatosis. Simple fibrosis scores such as the Fibrosis-4 index are well suited as initial assessment in primary care and non-hepatology settings to rule out advanced fibrosis and future risk of liver-related complications. However, because of its low positive predictive value, an abnormal test should be followed by specific blood (e.g. Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score) or imaging biomarkers (e.g. vibration-controlled transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography) of fibrosis. Some non-invasive tests of fibrosis appear to be less accurate in patients with diabetes. Obesity also affects the performance of abdominal ultrasonography and transient elastography, whereas magnetic resonance imaging may not be feasible in some patients with severe obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

This article highlights issues surrounding the clinical application of non-invasive tests for MASLD in patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity.

Image-based AI diagnostic performance for fatty liver: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The gold standard to diagnose fatty liver is pathology. Recently, image-based artificial intelligence (AI) has been found to have high diagnostic performance. We systematically reviewed studies of image-based AI in the diagnosis of fatty liver.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Library, Pubmed, Embase and assessed the quality of included studies by QUADAS-AI. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio (NLR), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated using a random effects model. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC) were generated to identify the diagnostic accuracy of AI models.

RESULTS

15 studies were selected in our meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 92% (95% CI: 90-93%) and 94% (95% CI: 93-96%), PLR and NLR were 12.67 (95% CI: 7.65-20.98) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.13), DOR was 182.36 (95% CI: 94.85-350.61). After subgroup analysis by AI algorithm (conventional machine learning/deep learning), region, reference (US, MRI or pathology), imaging techniques (MRI or US) and transfer learning, the model also demonstrated acceptable diagnostic efficacy.

CONCLUSION

AI has satisfactory performance in the diagnosis of fatty liver by medical imaging. The integration of AI into imaging devices may produce effective diagnostic tools, but more high-quality studies are needed for further evaluation.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies.

RESULTS

Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

High prevalence of liver fibrosis among general population: a Romanian population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis can be present undected for years prior to a symptomatic presentation. Early detection may result in improved outcomes. Data are lacking, however, regarding the yield of screening in many populations. We aimed to determined prevalence of significant liver fibrosis diagnosed by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in apparently healthy Romanians.

METHODS

Between December 2021 and March 2022, we prospectively screened 1,027 subjects from different counties of Northeastern Romania using VCTE and B-mode ultrasonagraphy after a comprehensive medical history questionnaire. Participants with abnormal liver stiffness measurement values were further evaluated by laboratory tests to identify the severity and etiology of chronic liver disease.

RESULTS

Overall, 17.9% of subjects had liver stiffness measurments (LSM) ≥8 kpa, including 55 with LSM ≥13.0 kpa. Among these subjects, 26.1% had a history of heavy alcohol intake, 22.3% tested positive for hepatitis B and/or C infection, and 49.5% were diagnosed with NAFLD. The prevalence of elevated LSM was highest among older subjects (>60 y old) and those with diabetes. Among those with LSM ≥13 kPa and ≥9.6 kpa, FIB-4 was <2.67 in 46.9% and 87.5% respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is high prevalence of significant liver fibrosis in the Romanian general population. VCTE is a usefool tool for early detection of liver disease and appears more sensitive than FIB-4.

Artificial Intelligence for Detecting and Quantifying Fatty Liver in Ultrasound Images: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) is growing more prevalent worldwide. Although non-invasive diagnostic approaches such as conventional ultrasonography and clinical scoring systems have been proposed as alternatives to liver biopsy, their efficacy has been called into doubt. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is now combined with traditional diagnostic processes to improve the performance of non-invasive approaches.

OBJECTIVE

This study explores how well various AI methods function and perform on ultrasound (US) images to diagnose and quantify non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

METHODOLOGY

A systematic review was conducted to achieve this objective. Five science bibliographic databases were searched, including PubMed, Association for Computing Machinery ACM Digital Library, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Only peer-reviewed English articles, conferences, theses, and book chapters were included. Data from studies were synthesized using narrative methodologies per Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria.

RESULTS

Forty-nine studies were included in the systematic review. According to the qualitative analysis, AI significantly enhanced the diagnosis of NAFLD, Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH), and liver fibrosis. In addition, modalities, image acquisition, feature extraction and selection, data management, and classifiers were assessed and compared in terms of performance measures (i.e., accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity).

CONCLUSION

AI-supported systems show potential performance increases in detecting and quantifying steatosis, NASH, and liver fibrosis in NAFLD patients. Before real-world implementation, prospective studies with direct comparisons of AI-assisted modalities and conventional techniques are necessary.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease screening in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A cost-effectiveness and price threshold analysis

Introduction: The cost-effectiveness of screening asymptomatic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients remains debatable, with current studies assuming lifelong benefits of NAFLD screening while neglecting cardiovascular outcomes. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of NAFLD screening among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to establish a price threshold for NAFLD treatment, when it becomes available. Method: A Markov model was constructed comparing 4 screening strategies (versus no screening) to identify NAFLD with advanced fibrosis among T2DM patients: fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), FIB-4 and VCTE (simultaneous), and FIB-4 and VCTE (sequential). Sensitivity analyses and price threshold analyses were performed to assess parameter uncertainties in the results. Results: VCTE was the most cost-effective NAFLD screening strategy (USD24,727/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), followed by FIB-4 (USD36,800/QALY), when compared to no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a higher degree of certainty for VCTE as a cost-effective strategy compared to FIB-4 (90.7% versus 73.2%). The duration of expected screening benefit is the most influential variable based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio tornado analysis. The minimum duration of screening benefit for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective was at least 2.6 years. The annual cost of NAFLD treatment should be less than USD751 for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective. Conclusion: Both VCTE and FIB-4 are cost-effective NAFLD screening strategies among T2DM patients in Singapore. However, given the lack of access to VCTE at primacy care and potential budget constraints, FIB-4 can also be considered for NAFLD screening among T2DM patients in Singapore. Keywords: Cost-effectiveness analysis, fatty liver, screening, liver fibrosis, population health

Non-invasive diagnosis and staging of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome and is characterized by ectopic accumulation of triglycerides in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes, i.e., steatosis. NAFLD has become the most common chronic liver disease, with an estimated global prevalence of 25%. Although the majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related complications, the progressive potential of NAFLD is indisputable, with 5-10% of subjects progressing to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, or hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD patients with advanced fibrosis are at the highest risk of developing cardiovascular and cirrhosis-related complications. Liver biopsy has hitherto been considered the reference method for evaluation of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis stage. Given the limitations of biopsy for widescale screening, non-invasive tests (NITs) for assessment of steatosis and fibrosis stage, including serum-based algorithms and ultrasound- and magnetic resonance-based methods, will play an increasing role in the management of NAFLD patients. This comprehensive review presents the advantages and limitations of NITs for identification of steatosis and advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. The clinical implications of using NITs to identify and manage NAFLD patients are also discussed.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Screening for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-when, who and how?

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming a frequent liver disease, especially in patients with metabolic syndrome and especially in Western countries. Complications of NAFLD comprise progressive fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD also represents an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, extrahepatic neoplasia and other organ damage, such as renal insufficiency. Given the epidemiological importance of the disease, new developments in specific treatment of the disease and the wide availability of noninvasive techniques in estimating steatosis and fibrosis, NAFLD should be subject to screening programs, at least in countries with a high prevalence of the disease. The review discusses prerequisites for screening, cost-effectiveness, current guideline recommendations, suitability of techniques for screening and propositions for the following questions: Who should be screened? Who should perform screening? How should screening be performed? It is time for a screening program in patients at risk for NAFLD.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs among nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients in Germany

Background

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are associated with progression to advanced liver diseases that include compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplantation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study characterized comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and associated costs among NAFLD patients in Germany.

Methods

German healthcare claims data between 2011 and 2016 were analyzed retrospectively. Adult patients diagnosed with NAFLD and/or NASH were categorized as NAFLD, NAFLD non-progressors, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplant, or HCC. Within each stage, annual all-cause HRU and costs were measured during the pre- and post-index periods.

Results

Among 4,580,434 patients in the database, proportion of NAFLD was 4.7% (n=215,655). Of them, 36.8% were non-progressors, 0.2% compensated cirrhosis, 9.6% decompensated cirrhosis, 0.0005% liver transplant, and 0.2% HCC. Comorbidity rates were significantly higher in compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and HCC compared with non-progressors (52.07%, 56.46%, 57.58% vs. 27.49% for cardiovascular disease; 77.13%, 76.61%, 83.47% vs. 54.89% for hypertension; 47.20%, 53.81%, 52.89% vs. 35.21% for hyperlipidemia; 49.88%, 36.67%, 48.21% vs. 20.38% for type 2 diabetes mellitus). The mean annual numbers of post-index outpatient visits and inpatient hospitalizations were significantly higher in patients with advanced liver diseases versus non-progressors. Mean annual costs were significantly higher among patients with advanced liver diseases (compensated cirrhosis, €10,291; decompensated cirrhosis, €22,561; liver transplant, €34,089; HCC, €35,910) than non-progressors (€3,818, P<0.001, except liver transplant cohort). This trend remained consistent after adjusting for baseline demographics and comorbidities.

Conclusions

NAFLD patients in Germany are grossly underdiagnosed and exert substantial healthcare resource use and economic burden, particularly those with advanced liver diseases. Optimal strategies for early identification and management are needed to prevent disease progression and limit the rising costs.

Economic burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with significant fibrosis in Thailand

Background

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has been recognised as a significant form of chronic liver disease and a common cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, resulting in a considerable financial burden on healthcare resources. Currently, there is no information regarding the economic burden of NASH in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of NASH in Thailand as a lesson learned for LMICs.

Methods

To estimate the healthcare costs and prevalence of NASH with significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥ 2) in the general Thai population, an eleven-state lifetime horizon Markov model with 1-year cycle length was performed. The model comprised Thai population aged 18 years and older. The cohort size was based on Thailand Official Statistic Registration Systems. The incidence of NASH, transitional probabilities, and costs-of-illness were based on previously published literature, including systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The age-specific prevalence of NASH was based on Thai NASH registry data. Costs were expressed in 2019 US Dollars ($). As we undertook analysis from the payer perspective, only direct medical costs were included. All future costs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

The estimated total number of patients with significant NASH was 2.9 million cases in 2019, based on a NASH prevalence of 5.74%. The total lifetime cost of significant NASH was $15.2 billion ($5,147 per case), representing approximately 3% of the 2019 GDP of Thailand. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the lifetime costs of significant NASH varied from $11.4 billion to $18.2 billion.

Conclusions

The economic burden associated with NASH is substantial in Thailand. This prompts clinicians and policy makers to consider strategies for NASH prevention and management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01720-w.

Management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a very common medical condition, driven by a combination of genetic and lifestyle factors, ultimately producing a severe chronic liver disease and increased cardiovascular risk. Most people are asymptomatic for a long time, and their daily life is unaffected, leading to difficulty in identifying and managing people who slowly progress to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), NASH-cirrhosis, and eventually hepatocellular carcinoma. Despite advances in the understanding of pathogenic mechanisms and the identification of liver fibrosis as the strongest factor in predicting disease progression, no specific treatments have been approved by regulatory agencies. Outside controlled trials, treatment is generally limited to lifestyle intervention aimed at weight loss. Pioglitazone remains the drug of choice to reduce progression of fibrosis in people with diabetes, although it is often used off-label in the absence of diabetes. Vitamin E is mainly used in children and may be considered in adults without diabetes. Several drugs are under investigation according to the agreed targets of reduced NASH activity without worsening of fibrosis or improving fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Anti-inflammatory, anti-fibrotic agents and metabolism modulators have been tested in either phase III or phase IIb randomized controlled trials; a few failed, and others have produced marginally positive results, but only a few are being tested in extension studies. The development of non-invasive, easily repeatable surrogate biomarkers and/or imaging tools is crucial to facilitate clinical studies and limit liver biopsy.

Comparison of noninvasive scoring systems for the prediction of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients

Over half of metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). To prevent its complications, standard routine screening is required, but the human-resource and budgetary implications need to be taken into consideration. This study compared the performances of 4 noninvasive scoring systems in predicting NAFLD in MetS patients. They were the fatty liver index, hepatic steatosis index, lipid accumulation product index, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients scoring system (NAFLD-MS).Scores were determined for 499 MetS patients, including 249 patients in a type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) subgroup. Ultrasonography was used to diagnose NAFLD. The accuracies and performance of the scoring systems were analyzed using published cutoff values, and comparisons were made of their areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios.NAFLD was detected in 68% of the MetS patients and 77% of the MetS patients with T2DM. According to the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index provided better performances in predicting NAFLD. NAFLD-MS provided the highest specificity of 99% among the MetS patients as a whole, and it provided even better accuracy with similar performance when applied to the subgroup of MetS patients with T2DM. The maximum cost avoidance from unnecessary ultrasonography was also reported by using NAFLD-MS. In terms of simplicity and ease of calculation, the lipid accumulation product index and NAFLD-MS are preferred.All 4 scoring systems proved to be acceptable for predicting NAFLD among MetS and T2DM patients in settings where the availability of ultrasonography is limited. NAFLD-MS provided the highest specificity and cost avoidance, and it is simple to use. All 4 systems can help clinicians decide further investigations.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis patients with advanced liver disease in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) may progress to advanced liver disease (AdvLD). This study characterized comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and associated costs among hospitalized patients with AdvLD due to NASH in Italy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Adult nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/NASH patients from 2011 to 2017 were identified from administrative databases of Italian local health units using ICD-9-CM codes. Development of compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or liver transplant (LT) was identified using first diagnosis date for each severity cohort (index-date). Patients progressing to multiple disease stages were included in >1 cohort. Patients were followed from index-date until the earliest of disease progression, end of coverage, death, or end of study. Within each cohort, per member per month values were annualized to calculate all-cause HCRU or costs(€) in 2017. Of the 9,729 hospitalized NAFLD/NASH patients identified, 97% were without AdvLD, 1.3% had CC, 3.1% DCC, 0.8% HCC, 0.1% LT. Comorbidity burden was high across all cohorts. Mean annual number of inpatient services was greater in patients with AdvLD than without AdvLD. Similar trends were observed in outpatient visits and pharmacy fills. Mean total annual costs increased with disease severity, driven primarily by inpatient services costs.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD/NASH patients in Italy have high comorbidity burden. AdvLD patients had significantly higher costs. The higher prevalence of DCC compared to CC in this population may suggest challenges of effectively screening and identifying NAFLD/NASH patients. Early identification and effective management are needed to reduce risk of disease progression and subsequent HCRU and costs.

Systematic Literature Review and Critical Appraisal of Health Economic Models Used in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis: Potential for Improvements

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a severe, typically progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The global prevalence of NASH is increasing, driven partly by the global increase in obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), such that NASH is now a leading cause of cirrhosis. There is currently an unmet clinical need for efficacious and cost-effective treatments for NASH; no pharmacologic agents have an approved indication for NASH.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to summarise and critically appraise published health economic models of NASH, to evaluate their quality and suitability for use in the assessment of novel treatments for NASH, and to identify knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities for future modelling.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and EconLit databases to identify published health economic analyses in patients with NAFLD or NASH. Supplementary hand searches of grey literature were also performed. Articles published up to November 2019 were included in the review. Quality assessment of identified studies was also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 19 articles comprising 16 unique models including either NAFLD as a whole or NASH alone were included in the review. Structurally, most models had a state-transition component; in terms of health states, two different approaches to early disease states were used, modelling either progression through fibrosis stages or NAFLD/NASH-specific health states. Conditions that frequently co-exist with NASH, such as obesity, T2DM and cardiovascular disease were not captured in models identified here. Late-stage complications such as cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were consistently included, but input data (e.g. costs, utilities and transition probabilities) for late-stage complications were frequently sourced from other liver disease areas. The quality of included studies was heterogenous, and only a small proportion of studies reported internal and external validation processes.

CONCLUSION

The health economic models identified in this review are associated with limitations primarily driven by a lack of NASH-specific data. Identified models also largely overlooked the intricate association between NASH and other conditions, including obesity and T2DM, and did not capture the increased risk of cardiovascular events associated with NASH. High-quality, transparent, validated health economic models of NASH will be required to evaluate the cost effectiveness of treatments currently in development, particularly compounds that may target other non-hepatic outcomes.

A Structured Literature Review of the Epidemiology and Disease Burden of Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

INTRODUCTION

Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic, progressive disease characterized by fatty liver and liver cell injury, advancing to fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Diagnosis involves liver biopsy; however, as a result of its high cost and invasiveness, NASH remains underdiagnosed, and accurate burden of disease (BoD) data are lacking. Our aim was to understand the epidemiological and BoD landscape in NASH and identify knowledge gaps.

METHODS

The Ovid search engine was used to conduct a structured review, following quality systematic principles. It included publications that reported on epidemiology, quality of life (QoL) and BoD outcomes in NASH adults. Searches were limited to English language studies published between January 2007 and September 2017. Additional grey literature searches were conducted. A total of 53 references were selected; 38 were peer-reviewed and 15 were grey literature sources.

RESULTS

NASH is estimated to affect 3-5% of the global population, most suffering from several comorbidities. Advancing fibrosis drives clinical outcomes, with approximately 20% of patients developing cirrhosis and/or HCC, the latter being a leading cause of death in NASH. A recent model predicted the 15-year survival of advanced fibrosis patients at F3 and F4 as 51.0% and 28.4%, respectively. The limited data consistently show that NASH patients experience significantly poorer QoL and higher costs compared to non-NASH patients.

CONCLUSION

This first broad-ranging examination of NASH literature revealed a paucity of evidence, with poor-quality, small studies found. The overwhelming impact of NASH and its patient and healthcare burden is evident. Further evidence is needed to improve our understanding of NASH, especially as fibrosis stages advance.

FUNDING

Gilead Science Inc.

Weight Reduction and Pioglitazone are Cost-Effective for the Treatment of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Thailand

INTRODUCTION

This study evaluated lifetime liver-related clinical outcomes, costs of treatment, and the cost-effectiveness of treatment options for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Thailand.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E.

CONCLUSIONS

A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.

Assessing the value of screening tools: reviewing the challenges and opportunities of cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Screening is an important part of preventive medicine. Ideally, screening tools identify patients early enough to provide treatment and avoid or reduce symptoms and other consequences, improving health outcomes of the population at a reasonable cost. Cost-effectiveness analyses combine the expected benefits and costs of interventions and can be used to assess the value of screening tools.

Objective

This review seeks to evaluate the latest cost-effectiveness analyses on screening tools to identify the current challenges encountered and potential methods to overcome them.

Methods

A systematic literature search of EMBASE and MEDLINE identified cost-effectiveness analyses of screening tools published in 2017. Data extracted included the population, disease, screening tools, comparators, perspective, time horizon, discounting, and outcomes. Challenges and methodological suggestions were narratively synthesized.

Results

Four key categories were identified: screening pathways, pre-symptomatic disease, treatment outcomes, and non-health benefits. Not all studies included treatment outcomes; 15 studies (22%) did not include treatment following diagnosis. Quality-adjusted life years were used by 35 (51.4%) as the main outcome. Studies that undertook a societal perspective did not report non-health benefits and costs consistently. Two important challenges identified were (i) estimating the sojourn time, i.e., the time between when a patient can be identified by screening tests and when they would have been identified due to symptoms, and (ii) estimating the treatment effect and progression rates of patients identified early.

Conclusions

To capture all important costs and outcomes of a screening tool, screening pathways should be modeled including patient treatment. Also, false positive and false negative patients are likely to have important costs and consequences and should be included in the analysis. As these patients are difficult to identify in regular data sources, common treatment patterns should be used to determine how these patients are likely to be treated. It is important that assumptions are clearly indicated and that the consequences of these assumptions are tested in sensitivity analyses, particularly the assumptions of independence of consecutive tests and the level of patient and provider compliance to guidelines and sojourn times. As data is rarely available regarding the progression of undiagnosed patients, extrapolation from diagnosed patients may be necessary.

A novel index including SNPs for the screening of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease among elder Chinese: A population-based study

Presently noninvasive methods were employed to the diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), including fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), product of fasting triglyceride and glucose levels (TyG), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), whereas the accuracy of those indexes need to be improved. Our study aimed to investigate the feasibility of a new index comprehensive index (CI), consisting of 6 serum biomarkers and anthropometric parameters through multivariate logistic regression analysis, to the earlier detection of NAFLD, and the diagnostic value of 5 SNPs (S1: rs2854116 of apolipoprotein C3 [APOC3], S2: rs4149267 of ATP-binding cassette transporter [ABCA1], S3: rs13702 of lipoprotein lipase [LPL], S4: rs738409 of protein 3 [patatin-like phospholipase domain containing protein 3 (PNPLA3)], S5: rs780094 of glucokinase regulatory protein gene [GCKR]) for NAFLD were also explored. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) and Youden index (YI) were calculated to assess the diagnostic value. The AUROC of CI was higher than FLI, HSI, and TyG (CI: 0.897, FLI: 0.873, HSI: 0.855, TyG: 0.793). Therefore, CI might be a better index for the diagnosis of NAFLD. Although there had no statistical significance (P = .123), the AUROC and YI were increased when CI combined with rs2854116 (S1) (AUROC = 0.902, YI = 0.6844). The combination of CI with S1 showed even better diagnostic accuracy than CI, which suggests the potential value of rs2854116 for the diagnosis of NAFLD.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic vascular complications of diabetes mellitus

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and diabetes mellitus are common diseases that often coexist and might act synergistically to increase the risk of hepatic and extra-hepatic clinical outcomes. NAFLD affects up to 70-80% of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and up to 30-40% of adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus. The coexistence of NAFLD and diabetes mellitus increases the risk of developing not only the more severe forms of NAFLD but also chronic vascular complications of diabetes mellitus. Indeed, substantial evidence links NAFLD with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease and other cardiac and arrhythmic complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus. NAFLD is also associated with an increased risk of developing microvascular diabetic complications, especially chronic kidney disease. This Review focuses on the strong association between NAFLD and the risk of chronic vascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus, thereby promoting an increased awareness of the extra-hepatic implications of this increasingly prevalent and burdensome liver disease. We also discuss the putative underlying mechanisms by which NAFLD contributes to vascular diseases, as well as the emerging role of changes in the gut microbiota (dysbiosis) in the pathogenesis of NAFLD and associated vascular diseases.