Digital Alcohol Interventions Could Be Part of the Societal Response to Harmful Consumption, but We Know Little About Their Long-Term Costs and Health Outcomes

Alcohol consumption causes both physical and psychological harm and is a leading risk factor for noncommunicable diseases. Digital alcohol interventions have been found to support those looking for help by giving them tools for change. However, whether digital interventions can help tackle the long-term societal consequences of harmful alcohol consumption in a cost-effective manner has not been adequately evaluated. In this Viewpoint, we propose that studies of digital alcohol interventions rarely evaluate the consequences of wider dissemination of the intervention under study, and that when they do, they do not take advantage of modeling techniques that allow for appropriately studying consequences over a longer time horizon than the study period when the intervention is tested. We argue that to help decision-makers to prioritize resources for research and dissemination, it is important to model long-term costs and health outcomes. Further, this type of modeling gives important insights into the context in which interventions are studied and highlights where more research is required and where sufficient evidence is available. The viewpoint therefore invites the researcher not only to reflect on which interventions to study but also how to evaluate their long-term consequences.

N-(Heteroaryl)thiophene sulfonamides as angiotensin AT2 receptor ligands

Two series of N-(heteroaryl)thiophene sulfonamides, encompassing either a methylene imidazole group or a tert-butylimidazolylacetyl group in the meta position of the benzene ring, have been synthesized. An AT2R selective ligand with a Ki of 42 nM was identified in the first series and in the second series, six AT2R selective ligands with significantly improved binding affinities and Ki values of <5 nM were discovered. The binding modes to AT2R were explored by docking calculations combined with molecular dynamics simulations. Although some of the high affinity ligands exhibited fair stability in human liver microsomes, comparable to that observed with C21 undergoing clinical trials, most ligands displayed a very low metabolic stability with t½ of less than 10 min in human liver microsomes. The most promising ligand, with an AT2R Ki value of 4.9 nM and with intermediate stability in human hepatocytes (t½ = 77 min) caused a concentration-dependent vasorelaxation of pre-contracted mouse aorta.

Targeting MTHFD2 to Exploit Cancer-Specific Metabolism and the DNA Damage Response

The one-carbon folate enzyme methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase/cyclohydrolase 2 (MTHFD2) is a promising therapeutic target in cancer. MTHFD2 is upregulated across numerous cancer types, promotes growth and metastasis of cancer, and correlates with poorer survival. Recent studies have developed small-molecule inhibitors to the isozymes MTHFD2 and MTHFD1 that show promise as anticancer agents through different mechanisms. This review discusses the current understanding of the function of MTHFD2 in cancer and the status of inhibitors for treating MTHFD2-overexpressing cancers.

A rapid, non-invasive, clinical surveillance for CachExia, sarcopenia, portal hypertension, and hepatocellular carcinoma in end-stage liver disease: the ACCESS-ESLD study protocol

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis, the advanced stage of many chronic liver diseases, is associated with escalated risks of liver-related complications like decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis patients are linked to portal hypertension, sarcopenia, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although conventional cirrhosis management centered on treating complications, contemporary approaches prioritize preemptive measures. This study aims to formulate novel blood- and imaging-centric methodologies for monitoring liver cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

In this prospective study, 150 liver cirrhosis patients will be enrolled from three Swedish liver clinics. Their conditions will be assessed through extensive blood-based markers and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The MRI protocol encompasses body composition profile with Muscle Assement Score, portal flow assessment, magnet resonance elastography, and a abbreviated MRI for HCC screening. Evaluation of lifestyle, muscular strength, physical performance, body composition, and quality of life will be conducted. Additionally, DNA, serum, and plasma biobanking will facilitate future investigations.

DISCUSSION

The anticipated outcomes involve the identification and validation of non-invasive blood- and imaging-oriented biomarkers, enhancing the care paradigm for liver cirrhosis patients. Notably, the temporal evolution of these biomarkers will be crucial for understanding dynamic changes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, registration identifier NCT05502198. Registered on 16 August 2022. Link: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT05502198 .

Cost-effectiveness analysis of noninvasive tests to identify advanced fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Advanced fibrosis is associated with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality in NAFLD. As treatments specifically targeted at NAFLD are lacking, patient management focuses on surveillance for early detection of complications related to end-stage liver disease. Although current and emerging diagnostic tools for the detection of advanced fibrosis are crucial for surveillance, their added value is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the costs and health outcomes of noninvasive tests in patient management strategies for diagnosing advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients.

METHOD

A decision analytical model was developed to evaluate 13 patient management strategies, including a no-testing strategy and 12 diagnostic algorithms with noninvasive tests (fibrosis 4- score, enhanced liver fibrosis, vibration controlled transient elastography), and liver biopsy. Model inputs were synthesized from the literature and Swedish registries. Lifetime health care costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years, clinical outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for a cohort of 55-year-old patients diagnosed with NAFLD.

RESULT

The cost per quality-adjusted life year was above €50 000 for all diagnostic algorithms compared to no-testing. The cost per quality-adjusted life year of the most promising diagnostic algorithm (fibrosis 4- score, enhanced liver fibrosis, vibration controlled transient elastography, and liver biopsy) was ∼ €181 000 compared with no testing. Sensitivity analysis indicated that if treatment slowed down disease progression, the value of testing increased.

CONCLUSION

The result questions the overall value of comprehensive diagnostic testing in a broad NAFLD population in current routine clinical care. The role of noninvasive tests may change if evidence-based treatments to slow down disease progression emerge.

Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is more cost-effective than open resection: results from a Swedish randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is being implemented worldwide. The aim of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis from a health care perspective.

METHODS

This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on the randomized controlled trial LAPOP, where 60 patients were randomized to open or laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy. For the follow-up of two years, resource use from a health care perspective was recorded, and health-related quality of life was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L. The per-patient mean cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared using nonparametric bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients were included in the analysis. The mean health care costs were lower, €3863 (95% CI: -€8020 to €385), for the laparoscopic group. Postoperative quality of life improved with laparoscopic resection and resulted in a gain in QALYs of 0.08 (95% CI: -0.09 to 0.25). The laparoscopic group had lower costs and improved QALYs in 79% of bootstrap samples. With a cost-per-QALY threshold of €50 000, 95.4% of the bootstrap samples were in favour of laparoscopic resection.

CONCLUSION

Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is associated with numerically lower health care costs and improvements in QALYs compared with the open approach. The results support the ongoing transition from open to laparoscopic distal pancreatectomies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Newborn Screening for Phenylketonuria and Congenital Hypothyroidism

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long-term costs and health effects of the Swedish newborn screening program for classic phenylketonuria (PKU) alone and in combination with congenital hypothyroidism compared with no screening.

STUDY DESIGN

A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate and compare the long-term (80 years) costs and health effects of newborn screening for PKU and congenital hypothyroidism. Data were obtained from the literature and translated to Swedish conditions. A societal perspective was taken, including costs falling on health care providers, municipal care and services, as well as production loss due to morbidity.

RESULTS

Screening 100 000 newborns for PKU resulted in 73 gained quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with no screening. When adding congenital hypothyroidism, the number of gained QALYs was 232 compared with PKU alone, adding up to a total of 305 QALYs gained. Corresponding cost estimates were $80.8, $70.3, and $10.05 million USD for no screening, PKU screening, and PKU plus congenital hypothyroidism screening, respectively, indicating that screening for PKU plus congenital hypothyroidism was more effective and less costly compared with the other strategies. The majority of cost savings with PKU plus congenital hypothyroidism screening was due to reductions in productivity losses and municipal care and services costs.

CONCLUSION

The Swedish newborn screening program for PKU and congenital hypothyroidism saves substantial costs for society while generating additional QALYs, emphasizing the importance of public investments in early diagnosis and treatment.

The cost-effectiveness of whole genome sequencing in neurodevelopmental disorders

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) has the potential to be a comprehensive genetic test, especially relevant for individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders, syndromes and congenital malformations. However, the cost consequences of using whole genome sequencing as a first-line genetic test for these individuals are not well understood. The study objective was to compare the healthcare costs and diagnostic yield when WGS is performed as the first-line test instead of chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA). Two cohorts were analyzed retrospectively using register data, cohort CMA (418 patients referred for CMA at the department of Clinical Genetics, Karolinska University Hospital, during 2015) and cohort WGS (89 patients included in a WGS-first prospective study in 2017). The analysis compared healthcare consumption over a 2-year period after referral for genetic testing, the diagnostic yield over a 2- and 3-year period after referral was also compiled. The mean healthcare cost per patient in cohort WGS was $2,339 lower compared to cohort CMA ($ - 2339, 95% CI - 12,238-7561; P = 0.64) including higher costs for genetic investigations ($1065, 95% CI 834-1295; P < 0.001) and lower costs for outpatient care ($ - 2330, 95% CI - 3992 to (- 669); P = 0.006). The diagnostic yield was 23% higher for cohort WGS (cohort CMA 20.1%, cohort WGS 24.7%) (0.046, 95% CI - 0.053-0.145; P = 0.36). WGS as a first-line diagnostic test for individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders is associated with statistically non-significant lower costs and higher diagnostic yield compared with CMA. This indicates that prioritizing WGS over CMA in health care decision making will yield positive expected outcomes as well as showing a need for further research.

Formate overflow drives toxic folate trapping in MTHFD1 inhibited cancer cells

Cancer cells fuel their increased need for nucleotide supply by upregulating one-carbon (1C) metabolism, including the enzymes methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase-cyclohydrolase 1 and 2 (MTHFD1 and MTHFD2). TH9619 is a potent inhibitor of dehydrogenase and cyclohydrolase activities in both MTHFD1 and MTHFD2, and selectively kills cancer cells. Here, we reveal that, in cells, TH9619 targets nuclear MTHFD2 but does not inhibit mitochondrial MTHFD2. Hence, overflow of formate from mitochondria continues in the presence of TH9619. TH9619 inhibits the activity of MTHFD1 occurring downstream of mitochondrial formate release, leading to the accumulation of 10-formyl-tetrahydrofolate, which we term a 'folate trap'. This results in thymidylate depletion and death of MTHFD2-expressing cancer cells. This previously uncharacterized folate trapping mechanism is exacerbated by physiological hypoxanthine levels that block the de novo purine synthesis pathway, and additionally prevent 10-formyl-tetrahydrofolate consumption for purine synthesis. The folate trapping mechanism described here for TH9619 differs from other MTHFD1/2 inhibitors and antifolates. Thus, our findings uncover an approach to attack cancer and reveal a regulatory mechanism in 1C metabolism.

Implementation of Ticagrelor Reduced Mortality in Routine Clinical Care: Evidence From a Natural Experiment Including 109 995 Patients With Myocardial Infarction in Sweden

Background Effectiveness estimates from observational studies on ticagrelor use in routine clinical care are conflicting, with some contrary to the results of the pivotal randomized controlled trial of ticagrelor in acute coronary syndrome. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of implementing and using ticagrelor in routine clinical care in patients with myocardial infarction using a natural experimental approach. Methods and Results This is a retrospective cohort study including patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction in Sweden between 2009 and 2015. The study exploited differences in the timing and speed of ticagrelor implementation between treatment centers as a source of random treatment assignment. The effect of implementing and using ticagrelor was estimated based on the admitting center's likelihood of treating patients with ticagrelor, measured as the proportion of patients treated in the 90 days before patient admission. The main outcome was 12-month mortality. The study included 109 955 patients, of whom 30 773 were treated with ticagrelor. Being admitted to a treatment center with higher past ticagrelor use was associated with a reduction in 12-month mortality (2.5 percentage points for 100% versus 0% past use [95% CI, 0.2-4.8]). The results are in line with the findings from the ticagrelor pivotal trial. Conclusions Using a natural experiment, this study finds that the implementation and use of ticagrelor in routine clinical care has reduced 12-month mortality in patients admitted to the hospital with myocardial infarction in Sweden and supports the external validity of randomized evidence on ticagrelor effectiveness.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies.

RESULTS

Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.

The health cost of reducing hospital bed capacity

In the past two decades, most high-income countries have reduced their hospital bed capacity. This could be a sign of increased efficiency but could also reflect a degradation in quality of care. In this paper, we use repeated cross-sections on mortality and staffed hospital beds per capita in all 21 Swedish regions to estimate the potential death toll from reduced bed capacity. Between 2001 and 2019, mortality and beds decreased across all regions, but regions making smaller bed reductions experienced on average greater decreases in mortality, equivalent to one less death per three beds retained. This estimate is stable to a wide range of specifications and to adjustment for potential confounders, which supports a causal interpretation. Our results imply that by providing one more bed, Swedish health care could produce about three quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of SEK 400,000 (∼US$40,000) per QALY. These findings could be informative about the marginal productivity of health care and support the credibility of empirical work attempting to estimate the opportunity cost of funding new healthcare interventions subject to a constrained budget.

The First Structure of Human MTHFD2L and Its Implications for the Development of Isoform-Selective Inhibitors

Methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase 2 (MTHFD2) is a mitochondrial 1-carbon metabolism enzyme, which is an attractive anticancer drug target as it is highly upregulated in cancer but is not expressed in healthy adult cells. Selective MTHFD2 inhibitors could therefore offer reduced side-effects during treatment, which are common with antifolate drugs that target other 1C-metabolism enzymes. This task is challenging however, as MTHFD2 shares high sequence identity with the constitutively expressed isozymes cytosolic MTHFD1 and mitochondrial MTHFD2L. In fact, one of the most potent MTHFD2 inhibitors reported to date, TH7299, is actually more active against MTHFD1 and MTHFD2L. While structures of MTHFD2 and MTHFD1 exist, no MTHFD2L structures are available. We determined the first structure of MTHFD2L and its complex with TH7299, which reveals the structural basis for its highly potent MTHFD2L inhibition. Detailed analysis of the MTHFD2L structure presented here clearly highlights the challenges associated with developing truly isoform-selective MTHFD2 inhibitors.

Small-molecule activation of OGG1 increases oxidative DNA damage repair by gaining a new function

Oxidative DNA damage is recognized by 8-oxoguanine (8-oxoG) DNA glycosylase 1 (OGG1), which excises 8-oxoG, leaving a substrate for apurinic endonuclease 1 (APE1) and initiating repair. Here, we describe a small molecule (TH10785) that interacts with the phenylalanine-319 and glycine-42 amino acids of OGG1, increases the enzyme activity 10-fold, and generates a previously undescribed β,δ-lyase enzymatic function. TH10785 controls the catalytic activity mediated by a nitrogen base within its molecular structure. In cells, TH10785 increases OGG1 recruitment to and repair of oxidative DNA damage. This alters the repair process, which no longer requires APE1 but instead is dependent on polynucleotide kinase phosphatase (PNKP1) activity. The increased repair of oxidative DNA lesions with a small molecule may have therapeutic applications in various diseases and aging.

Clinical decision support for familial hypercholesterolemia (CDS-FH): Rationale and design of a cluster randomized trial in primary care

BACKGROUND

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is an underdiagnosed and undertreated genetic disorder with high risk of premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and death. Clinical decision support (CDS) systems have the potential to aid in the identification and management of patients with FH. Prior studies using computer-based systems to screen patients for FH have shown promising results, but there has been no randomized controlled trial conducted. The aim of the current cluster randomized study is to evaluate if a CDS can increase the identification of FH.

METHODS

We have developed a CDS integrated in the electronic health records that will be activated in patients with elevated cholesterol levels (total cholesterol >8 mmol/L or low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol >5.5 mmol/L, adjusted for age, ongoing lipid lowering therapy and presence of premature coronary artery disease) at increased risk for FH. When activated, the CDS will urge the physician to send an automatically generated referral to the local lipid clinic for further evaluation. To evaluate the effects of the CDS, all primary care clinics will be cluster randomized 1:1 to either CDS intervention or standard care in a Swedish region with almost 500,000 inhabitants. The primary endpoint will be the number of patients diagnosed with FH at 30 months. Resource use and long-term health consequences will be estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention.

CONCLUSION

Despite increasing awareness of FH, the condition remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. The present study will investigate whether a CDS can increase the number of patients being diagnosed with FH.

Pharmacological targeting of MTHFD2 suppresses acute myeloid leukemia by inducing thymidine depletion and replication stress

The folate metabolism enzyme MTHFD2 (methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase/cyclohydrolase) is consistently overexpressed in cancer but its roles are not fully characterized, and current candidate inhibitors have limited potency for clinical development. In the present study, we demonstrate a role for MTHFD2 in DNA replication and genomic stability in cancer cells, and perform a drug screen to identify potent and selective nanomolar MTHFD2 inhibitors; protein cocrystal structures demonstrated binding to the active site of MTHFD2 and target engagement. MTHFD2 inhibitors reduced replication fork speed and induced replication stress followed by S-phase arrest and apoptosis of acute myeloid leukemia cells in vitro and in vivo, with a therapeutic window spanning four orders of magnitude compared with nontumorigenic cells. Mechanistically, MTHFD2 inhibitors prevented thymidine production leading to misincorporation of uracil into DNA and replication stress. Overall, these results demonstrate a functional link between MTHFD2-dependent cancer metabolism and replication stress that can be exploited therapeutically with this new class of inhibitors.

MTH1 Inhibitor TH1579 Induces Oxidative DNA Damage and Mitotic Arrest in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive hematologic malignancy, exhibiting high levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS). ROS levels have been suggested to drive leukemogenesis and is thus a potential novel target for treating AML. MTH1 prevents incorporation of oxidized nucleotides into the DNA to maintain genome integrity and is upregulated in many cancers. Here we demonstrate that hematologic cancers are highly sensitive to MTH1 inhibitor TH1579 (karonudib). A functional precision medicine ex vivo screen in primary AML bone marrow samples demonstrated a broad response profile of TH1579, independent of the genomic alteration of AML, resembling the response profile of the standard-of-care treatments cytarabine and doxorubicin. Furthermore, TH1579 killed primary human AML blast cells (CD45⁺) as well as chemotherapy resistance leukemic stem cells (CD45⁺Lin^-CD34⁺CD38^-), which are often responsible for AML progression. TH1579 killed AML cells by causing mitotic arrest, elevating intracellular ROS levels, and enhancing oxidative DNA damage. TH1579 showed a significant therapeutic window, was well tolerated in animals, and could be combined with standard-of-care treatments to further improve efficacy. TH1579 significantly improved survival in two different AML disease models in vivo. In conclusion, the preclinical data presented here support that TH1579 is a promising novel anticancer agent for AML, providing a rationale to investigate the clinical usefulness of TH1579 in AML in an ongoing clinical phase I trial. SIGNIFICANCE: The MTH1 inhibitor TH1579 is a potential novel AML treatment, targeting both blasts and the pivotal leukemic stem cells while sparing normal bone marrow cells.

Inequality and heterogeneity in health-related quality of life: findings based on a large sample of cross-sectional EQ-5D-5L data from the Swedish general population

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate inequality and heterogeneity in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and to provide EQ-5D-5L population reference data for Sweden.

Methods

Based on a large Swedish population-based survey, 25,867 respondents aged 30‒104 years, HRQoL is described by sex, age, education, income, economic activity, health-related behaviours, self-reported diseases and conditions. Results are presented by EQ-5D-5L dimensions, respondents rating of their overall health on the EQ visual analogue scale (EQ VAS), VAS index value and TTO (time trade-off) index value allowing for calculation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Ordinary Least Squares and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to study inequalities in observed EQ VAS score between socioeconomic groups and the likelihood to report problems on the dimensions, respectively, adjusted for confounders.

Results

In total, 896 different health states were reported; 24.1% did not report any problems. Most problems were reported with pain/discomfort. Women reported worse HRQoL than men, and health deteriorated with age. The strongest association between diseases and conditions and EQ VAS score was seen for depression and mental health problems. There was a socioeconomic gradient in HRQoL; adjusting for health-related behaviours, diseases and conditions slightly reduced the differences between educational groups and income groups, but socioeconomic inequalities largely remained.

Conclusion

EQ-5D-5L population reference (norms) data are now available for Sweden, including socioeconomic differentials. Results may be used for comparisons with disease-specific populations and in health economic evaluations. The observed socioeconomic inequality in HRQoL should be of great importance for policy makers concerned with equity aspects.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11136-021-02982-3.

Should we accept a higher cost per health improvement for orphan drugs? A review and analysis of egalitarian arguments

In recent years, the issue of accepting a higher cost per health improvement for orphan drugs has been the subject of discussion in health care policy agencies and the academic literature. This article aims to provide an analysis of broadly egalitarian arguments for and against accepting higher costs per health improvement. More specifically, we aim to investigate which arguments one should agree upon putting aside and where further explorations are needed. We identify three kinds of arguments in the literature: considerations of substantial equality, formal equality, and opportunity cost. We argue that considerations of substantial equality do not support higher costs per health improvement orphan drugs, even if such considerations are considered valid. On the contrary, arguments of formal equality may support accepting a higher cost per health improvement for orphan drugs. However, in order to do so, a number of both normative and empirical issues must be resolved; these issues are identified in the article. For instance, it must be settled to what extent the opportunity cost in terms of foregone health for other patients is acceptable in order to uphold formal equality. We conclude that certain arguments can be set aside, and future focus should be put on the unresolved normative and empirical issues related to formal equality and opportunity cost.

Long term risk and costs of bleeding in men and women treated with triple antithrombotic therapy-An observational study

OBJECTIVES

Bleeding is the most common non-ischemic complication in patients with coronary revascularisation procedures, associated with prolonged hospitalisation and increased mortality. Many factors predispose for bleeds in these patients, among those sex. Anyhow, few studies have characterised the population receiving triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) as well as long term bleeds from a sex perspective. We investigated the one year rate of bleeds in patients receiving TAT, potential sex disparities and premature discontinuation of TAT. We also assessed health care costs in bleeders vs non-bleeders.

SETTING

Three hospitals in the County of Östergötland, Sweden during 2009-2015.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients discharged with TAT registered in the SWEDEHEART registry.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All bleeds receiving medical attention during one-year follow-up were collected by retrieving relevant information about each patient from medical records. Resource use associated with bleeds was assigned unit cost to estimate the health care costs associated with bleeding episodes.

RESULTS

Among 272 patients, 156 bleeds occurred post-discharge, of which 28.8% were gastrointestinal. In total 54.4% had at least one bleed during or after the index event and 40.1% bled post discharge of whom 28.7% experienced a TIMI major or minor bleeding. Women discontinued TAT prematurely more often than men (52.9 vs 36.1%, p = 0.01) and bled more (48.6 vs. 37.1%, p = 0.09). One-year mean health care costs were EUR 575 and EUR 5787 in non-bleeding and bleeding patients, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The high bleeding incidence in patients with TAT, especially in women, is a cause of concern. There is a need for an adequately sized randomised, controlled trial to determine a safe but still effective treatment for these patients.

Association of Skin Psoriasis and Somatic Comorbidity With the Development of Psychiatric Illness in a Nationwide Swedish Study

Importance

Psoriasis is a complex systemic disease with skin involvement, somatic comorbidity, and psychiatric illness (PI). Although this view of psoriasis is widely accepted, potential synergies within this triad of symptoms have not been adequately investigated.

Objectives

To investigate the independent association of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity with the development of PI and to assess whether skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity act synergistically to produce a risk of PI that is greater than the additive associations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Participants were enrolled between January 2005 and December 2010, in this retrospective matched case-control study using secondary (ie, administrative), population-based registry data from Swedish patients in routine clinical care. The dates of analysis were March 2017 to December 2019. Participants were patients with skin psoriasis and control participants without psoriasis matched on age, sex, and municipality, who were all free of preexisting PI.

Exposures

Presence of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity (captured through the Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of PI onset (composite of depression, anxiety, and suicidality) is shown using Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by the presence of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity. Adjusted associations of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity with the development of PI were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models, including interactions to assess synergistic associations. The 3 components of PI were also assessed individually.

Results

A total of 93 239 patients with skin psoriasis (mean [SD] age, 54 [17] years; 47 475 men [51%]) and 1 387 495 control participants (mean [SD] age, 54 [16] years; 702 332 men [51%]) were included in the study. As expected, patients with skin psoriasis were more likely to have somatic comorbidity and PI than control participants. Compared with those without skin psoriasis or somatic comorbidity, patients with psoriasis without somatic comorbidity had a 1.32 times higher risk of PI onset (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.27-1.36; P < .001), whereas patients with psoriasis with somatic comorbidity had a 2.56 times higher risk of PI onset (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.46-2.66; P < .001). No synergistic associations of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity with the development of PI were found (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81-1.04; P = .21).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that somatic comorbidity appeared to alter PI onset even more than skin psoriasis. The observed association of skin psoriasis and somatic comorbidity with the development of PI reinforces the need for proactive, holistic treatment of patients with psoriasis.

Severity as a Priority Setting Criterion: Setting a Challenging Research Agenda

Priority setting in health care is ubiquitous and health authorities are increasingly recognising the need for priority setting guidelines to ensure efficient, fair, and equitable resource allocation. While cost-effectiveness concerns seem to dominate many policies, the tension between utilitarian and deontological concerns is salient to many, and various severity criteria appear to fill this gap. Severity, then, must be subjected to rigorous ethical and philosophical analysis. Here we first give a brief history of the path to today’s severity criteria in Norway and Sweden. The Scandinavian perspective on severity might be conducive to the international discussion, given its long-standing use as a priority setting criterion, despite having reached rather different conclusions so far. We then argue that severity can be viewed as a multidimensional concept, drawing on accounts of need, urgency, fairness, duty to save lives, and human dignity. Such concerns will often be relative to local mores, and the weighting placed on the various dimensions cannot be expected to be fixed. Thirdly, we present what we think are the most pertinent questions to answer about severity in order to facilitate decision making in the coming years of increased scarcity, and to further the understanding of underlying assumptions and values that go into these decisions. We conclude that severity is poorly understood, and that the topic needs substantial further inquiry; thus we hope this article may set a challenging and important research agenda.

Cost-effectiveness of gallbladder histopathology after cholecystectomy for benign disease

Background

The prevalence of incidental gallbladder cancer is low when performing cholecystectomy for benign disease. The performance of routine or selective histological examination of the gallbladder is still a subject for discussion. The aim of this study was to assess the cost‐effectiveness of these different approaches.

Methods

Four management strategies were evaluated using decision‐analytical modelling: no histology, current selective histology as practised in Sweden, macroscopic selective histology, and routine histology. Healthcare costs and life‐years were estimated for a lifetime perspective and combined into incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to assess the additional cost of achieving an additional life‐year for each management strategy.

Results

In the analysis of the four strategies, current selective histology was ruled out due to a higher ICER compared with macroscopic selective histology, which showed better health outcomes (extended dominance). Comparison of routine histology with macroscopic selective histology resulted in a gain of 12 life‐years and an incremental healthcare cost of approximately €1 000 000 in a cohort of 10 000 patients, yielding an estimated ICER of €76 508. When comparing a macroscopic selective strategy with no histological assessment, 50 life‐years would be saved and the ICER was estimated to be €20 708 in a cohort of 10 000 patients undergoing cholecystectomy.

Conclusion

A macroscopic selective strategy appears to be the most cost‐effective approach.

Do not despair about severity-yet

In a recent extended essay, philosopher Daniel Hausman goes a long way towards dismissing severity as a morally relevant attribute in the context of priority setting in healthcare. In this response, we argue that although Hausman certainly points to real problems with how severity is often interpreted and operationalised within the priority setting context, the conclusion that severity does not contain plausible ethical content is too hasty. Rather than abandonment, our proposal is to take severity seriously by carefully mapping the possibly multiple underlying accounts to well-established ethical theories, in a way that is both morally defensible and aligned with the term's colloquial uses.

Experience-Based Swedish TTO and VAS Value Sets for EQ-5D-5L Health States

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Although value sets for the five-level version of the generic health-related quality-of-life instrument EQ-5D are emerging, there is still no value set available in the literature based on time trade-off valuations made by individuals experiencing the valued health states. The aim of this study was to estimate experience-based value sets for the EQ-5D-5L for Sweden using time trade-off and visual analogue scale valuation methods.

METHODS

In a large, cross-sectional, population-based, self-administered postal health survey, the EQ-5D-5L descriptive system, EQ visual analogue scale and a time trade-off question were included. Time trade-off and visual analogue scale valuations of the respondent's current health status were used in statistical modelling to estimate a single-index value of health for each of the 3125 health states. Ordinary least-squares and generalised linear models were estimated with the main effect within each of the five dimensions represented by 20 dummy variables reflecting the additional decrement in value for levels 2-5 when the severity increases by one level sequentially beginning from having no problem. Interaction variables representing the occurrence of severity levels in at least one of the dimensions were tested: severity level 2 or worse (N2); severity level 3 or worse (N3); severity level 4 or worse (N4); severity level 5 (N5).

RESULTS

A total of 896 health states (28.7% of the 3125 possible EQ-5D-5L health states) were reported by the 25,867 respondents. Visual analogue scale (n = 23,899) and time trade-off (n = 13,381) responders reported valuations of their currently experienced health state. The preferred regression models used ordinary least-squares estimation for both time trade-off and visual analogue scale values and showed consistency in all coefficients after combining certain levels. Levels 4 and 5 for the dimensions of mobility, self-care and usual activities were combined in the time trade-off model. Including the interaction variable N5, indicating severity level 5 in at least one of the five dimensions, made it possible to distinguish between the two worst severity levels where no other dimension is at level 5 as this coefficient is applied only once. In the visual analogue scale regression model, levels 4 and 5 of the mobility dimension were combined. The interaction variables N2-N4 were included, indicating that each of these terms reflect a statistically significant decrement in visual analogue scale value if any of the dimensions is at severity level 2, 3 or 4, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Time trade-off and visual analogue scale value sets for the EQ-5D-5L are now available for Sweden. The time trade-off value set is the first such value set based on experience-based time trade-off valuation. For decision makers with a preference for experience-based valuations of health states from a representative population-based sample, the reported value sets may be considered fit for purpose to support resource allocation decision as well as evaluating population health and healthcare performance.

Health Care Costs of Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Are Nearly Twice Those of Matched Controls

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Data on healthcare resource use and costs associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in clinical practice are lacking. We compared real-life healthcare costs of patients with NAFLD to matched controls.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD in Sweden from 1971 through 2009. Each patient was matched for age, sex, and county of residence with 10 persons from the general population (controls). We retrieved all healthcare contacts through Dec 31, 2014 from national registers. Unit costs were assigned to arrive at a total healthcare cost (in USD [$]) per study subject.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 19.9 years, we recorded a mean of 0.27 hospitalizations per year for patients with NAFLD vs 0.16 for controls (P < .001). This corresponded to an incremental cost of $635 per year for patients with NAFLD. Patients with NAFLD had a higher mean use of outpatient care visits: 1.46 contacts per year compared with 0.86 per year in controls, corresponding to $255 in additional costs (P < .001). Total costs incurred by patients with stage 3-4 fibrosis were higher than by patients with fibrosis stage 0-2 (mean annual costs, $4397 vs $629). Cumulative costs were higher for all stages of fibrosis compared to controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare costs are nearly twice as high in patients with NAFLD than in matched controls. This is mostly attributable to higher costs for hospitalizations, but also to more outpatient visits. Patients with advanced fibrosis had the highest costs.

Subcategorizing the Expected Value of Perfect Implementation to Identify When and Where to Invest in Implementation Initiatives

Purpose. Clinical practice variations and low implementation of effective and cost-effective health care technologies are a key challenge for health care systems and may lead to suboptimal treatment and health loss for patients. The purpose of this work was to subcategorize the expected value of perfect implementation (EVPIM) to enable estimation of the absolute and relative value of eliminating slow, low, and delayed implementation. Methods. Building on the EVPIM framework, this work defines EVPIM subcategories to estimate the expected value of eliminating slow, low, or delayed implementation. The work also shows how information on regional implementation patterns can be used to estimate the value of eliminating regional implementation variation. The application of this subcategorization is illustrated by a case study of the implementation of an antiplatelet therapy for the secondary prevention after myocardial infarction in Sweden. Incremental net benefit (INB) estimates are based on published cost-effectiveness assessments and a threshold of SEK 250,000 (£22,300) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Results. In the case study, slow, low, and delayed implementation was estimated to represent 22%, 34%, and 44% of the total population EVPIM (2941 QALYs or SEK 735 million), respectively. The value of eliminating implementation variation across health care regions was estimated to 39% of total EVPIM (1138 QALYs). Conclusion. Subcategorizing EVPIM estimates the absolute and relative value of eliminating different parts of suboptimal implementation. By doing so, this approach could help decision makers to identify which parts of suboptimal implementation are contributing most to total EVPIM and provide the basis for assessing the cost and benefit of implementation activities that may address these in future implementation of health care interventions.

Treatment patterns and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the Swedish national registry SweLiv

BACKGROUND

Consistent data on clinical features, treatment modalities and long-term survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using nationwide quality registers are lacking. This study aimed to describe treatment patterns and survival outcomes in patients diagnosed with HCC using a national maintained database.

METHODS

Characteristics and treatment patterns in patients diagnosed with HCC and registered in the national register of liver and bile duct tumours (SweLiv) between 2009 and 2016 were reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log rank test to compare subgroups for clinical features, treatment modalities and outcomes according to the year of treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 3376 patients with HCC were registered over 8 years, 246 (7·3 per cent) of whom underwent transplantation. Some 501 (14·8 per cent) and 390 patients (11·6 per cent) had resection and ablation as primary treatment. Transarterial chemoembolization and systemic sorafenib treatment were intended in 476 (14·1 per cent) and 426 patients (12·6 per cent) respectively; the remaining 1337 (39·6 per cent) were registered but referred for best supportive care (BSC). The 5-year survival rate was approximately 75 per cent in the transplantation group. Median OS was 4·6 (i.q.r. 2·0 to not reached) years after resection and 3·1 (2·3-6·7) years following ablation. In patients referred for palliative treatment, median survival was 1·4 (0·8-2·9), 0·5 (0·3-1·2) and 0·3 (0·1-1·0) years for the TACE, sorafenib and BSC groups respectively (P < 0·001). Median survival was 0·9 years for the total HCC cohort in 2009-2012, before publication of the Swedish national treatment programme, increasing to 1·4 years in 2013-2016 (P < 0·001).

CONCLUSION

The survival outcomes reported were in line with previous results from smaller cohorts. The introduction of national guidelines may have contributed to improved survival among patients with HCC in Sweden.

Creating national guidelines for assessing functional and work capacity of recently settled persons

Problem

The measurement of functioning in clinical practice should be systematic and comprehensive. However, different versions of the same functioning measure are used e.g. by physicians, psychologists, physiotherapists and occupational therapists. The TOIMIA network of experts aims to harmonize and develop the measuring of functioning in Finland.

Description of the problem

With increasing immigration to Finland, a specific need for guidelines on how to assess functional and work capacity of recently settled persons was identified. Led by the National Institute for Health and Welfare (mobiTARMO-project, 2017-2020), guidelines for assessing functional and work capacity in the integration phase are in preparation.

Results

The guidelines on assessing functional and work capacity in the integration phase include four principles: Functional and work capacity assessment should be done with culturally and linguistically appropriate methods.Assessment should be based on shared expertise of the professional and the client.Assessment should be comprehensive, and take into consideration physical, psychological, social and cognitive functional capacity, activities of daily living, and environmental factors.Assessment should be systematic and lead to further actions and necessary services.The national guidelines will be disseminated as free online access material in the Terveysportti health portal to professionals in clinical practice and research.

Lessons

There are specificities to the cross-cultural assessment of functional and work capacity of recently settled persons. National guidelines can be created through broad collaboration of different organizations, as in the TOIMIA network of experts in Finland.

Key messages

Jointly agreed principles on how to assess functional and work capacity in the integration phase benefit professionals and clients. National guidelines can be created, disseminated and taken into practice through broad collaboration.

3333Contemporary mortality rates in myocardial infarction patients in Sweden: a tale of two registries

Background

Sweden has contributed to the understanding of the long-term prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) utilising the quality registry SWEDEHEART, including patients admitted to heart intensive care, and the National Patient Registry (PAR), based on administrative records for Swedish hospitals. As registration procedures differ between the registries, and not all MI patients are admitted to heart intensive care, MI patients identified in SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively, will yield different cohorts of patients. This may result in different epidemiological research findings regarding prognosis after MI.

Purpose

To study MI populations identified in SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively, and investigate potential differences in mortality outcome.

Methods

Patients hospitalised with an MI primary diagnosis (ICD-10 I21) between 2002 and 2015 were identified using SWEDEHEART and PAR. The analysis time started at the date of hospital admission and survivors were followed for 365 days. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate survival by cohort category controlling for age and gender.

Results

Excluding cases with invalid data (n=1,905), 225,612 and 282,118 SWEDEHEART and PAR patients, respectively, were identified. We found 213,367 patients in both SWEDEHEART and PAR, whereas 12,245 and 68,751 patients were unique to SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively. The one-year survival probability after MI in the SWEDEHEART population was 0.841, compared to 0.788 in PAR (Figure). This discrepancy can be explained by high mortality among patients not covered by SWEDEHEART and persists after controlling for age and gender (Table). To what extent differences in registration procedures and other patient characteristics can explain the mortality difference is an area for further research.

One-year survival by age and gender Age ± 1 year Male Female PAR S.H. Diff. PAR S.H. Diff. 65 0.922 0.936 0.015 0.919 0.936 0.017 70 0.893 0.909 0.016 0.889 0.908 0.019 75 0.829 0.858 0.029 0.834 0.860 0.026 80 0.743 0.783 0.040 0.768 0.800 0.033 85 0.625 0.677 0.052 0.662 0.705 0.042

One-year survival after MI

Conclusion

Estimated one-year survival for MI patients differs by up to 5 percentage points depending on the registry used. Although further research is needed to fully understand these differences, epidemiological findings regarding MI prognosis should be interpreted in light of registry type used and population represented.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Region Östergötland

P4635Long term risk and costs of bleeding in men and women treated with triple antithrombotic therapy

Background

Triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) is known to increase bleeds and its relevance is questioned. No study has observed the long-term risk of bleeding and health care costs from a sex perspective, in a total TAT population. We investigated the rate of all bleeds in patients receiving TAT at index hospitalization and within one year. We explored early discontinuation of TAT and potential sex disparities. We also assessed health care costs related to bleeding complications.

Methods

All patients discharged with TAT registered in SWEDEHEART in the County of Östergötland 2009–2015 were included. Information about bleeds during one-year follow-up were retrieved from the medical records. All bleeds receiving medical attention were included. Resource use associated with bleeds were assigned unit cost to estimate the health care costs associated with bleeding episodes.

Results

Among 272 identified patients, 156 bleeds occurred post-discharge, of which 28.8% were gastrointestinal. In total 54.4% had at least one bleed during or after the index event and 40.1% bled post discharge of whom 28.7% experienced a TIMI major or minor bleeding. Women discontinued TAT prematurely more often than men (52.9 vs 36.1%, p=0.01) and bled more (48.6 vs. 37.1%, p=0.09). One-year mean health care costs were EUR 575 and EUR 5787 in non-bleeding and bleeding patients, respectively.

Conclusion

The very high bleeding incidence in patients with TAT is a cause of concern, especially in women. There is a need for an adequately sized randomized, controlled trial to determine a safe but still effective treatment for these patients.

Estimating the marginal cost of a life year in Sweden's public healthcare sector

Although cost-effectiveness analysis has a long tradition of supporting healthcare decision-making in Sweden, there are no clear criteria for when an intervention is considered too expensive. In particular, the opportunity cost of healthcare resource use in terms of health forgone has not been investigated empirically. In this work, we therefore seek to estimate the marginal cost of a life year in Sweden's public healthcare sector using time series and panel data at the national and regional levels, respectively. We find that estimation using time series is unfeasible due to reversed causality. However, through panel instrumental variable estimation we are able to derive a marginal cost per life year of about SEK 370,000 (EUR 39,000). Although this estimate is in line with emerging evidence from other healthcare systems, it is associated with uncertainty, primarily due to the inherent difficulties of causal inference using aggregate observational data. The implications of these difficulties and related methodological issues are discussed.

Toward Alignment in the Reporting of Economic Evaluations of Diagnostic Tests and Biomarkers: The AGREEDT Checklist

Objectives. General frameworks for conducting and reporting health economic evaluations are available but not specific enough to cover the intricacies of the evaluation of diagnostic tests and biomarkers. Such evaluations are typically complex and model-based because tests primarily affect health outcomes indirectly and real-world data on health outcomes are often lacking. Moreover, not all aspects relevant to the evaluation of a diagnostic test may be known and explicitly considered for inclusion in the evaluation, leading to a loss of transparency and replicability. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a comprehensive reporting checklist. Methods. This study consisted of 3 main steps: 1) the development of an initial checklist based on a scoping review, 2) review and critical appraisal of the initial checklist by 4 independent experts, and 3) development of a final checklist. Each item from the checklist is illustrated using an example from previous research. Results. The scoping review followed by critical review by the 4 experts resulted in a checklist containing 44 items, which ideally should be considered for inclusion in a model-based health economic evaluation. The extent to which these items were included or discussed in the studies identified in the scoping review varied substantially, with 14 items not being mentioned in ≥47 (75%) of the included studies. Conclusions. The reporting checklist developed in this study may contribute to improved transparency and completeness of model-based health economic evaluations of diagnostic tests and biomarkers. Use of this checklist is therefore encouraged to enhance the interpretation, comparability, and—indirectly—the validity of the results of such evaluations.

[Subsidized TBE vaccination appears cost-effective in a life-time perspective]

Given the setting of Stockholm County, a recently published health-economic analysis shows that the cost per Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of a free TBE vaccinations program is below generally acceptable cost-effectiveness thresholds in Sweden. A report from the Public Health Agency (PHA), based on similar input data, shows that it is not cost effective to subsidize TBE vaccination in the Stockholm county. The main difference in the two analyses is the time horizon for the analyses; a life-time perspective versus 10-year perspective. Health economics of vaccination strategies should be based on a long time perspective and especially when the disease is more severe in older adults, i.e. TBE. Health-care decision-makers should be aware of the importance of the time horizon for the results when considering these evaluations in prioritization decisions. With a life-time perspective a TBE-vaccination program appears cost-effective.

Estimating costs and health outcomes of publicly funded tick-born encephalitis vaccination: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The number of notified cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden has been increasing the past years despite the increased use of TBE-vaccine not subsidized by the healthcare system. Stockholm County is a high endemic area and an earlier study has shown that low-income households have lower vaccination coverage even when they are at high risk. This paper aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of a publicly funded TBE vaccination program in Stockholm.

METHODS

In three different cohorts with individuals aged 3, 40 or 50 years, long-term costs and health outcomes of an out-of-pocket strategy (53% of the cohort is vaccinated on their own expenses) and a structured vaccination program (full cohort is vaccinated covered by the publicly funded health care system), were estimated using a Markov model. The Markov model predicts the costs and effects in term of Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon using a third-party healthcare payer perspective. The primary results are presented as an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) indicating the additional cost required to achieve one additional QALY with the structured vaccination program.

RESULTS

The results show that the structured vaccination program is associated with a gain in QALYs and increased costs compared with an out-of-pocket strategy. The calculated ICERs were 27 761, 99 527 and 160 827 SEK/QALY in cohorts of age 3, 40 and 50, respectively. The sensitivity analyses showed that the results are robust when varying different parameters.

CONCLUSION

Given the setting of Stockholm county, this analysis shows a cost per QALY of a free vaccinations program, especially for children of 3 years old, below generally acceptable cost-effectiveness thresholds in Sweden.

Long-term resource use patterns and healthcare costs after myocardial infarction in a clinical practice setting: results from a contemporary nationwide registry study

Aims

Long-term contemporary nationwide data on resource use and healthcare costs after myocardial infarction (MI) in a clinical practice setting are not widely studied, and the aim of this study was to investigate resource use patterns and healthcare costs in patients with MI in a nationwide clinical practice setting.

Methods and results

This retrospective cohort study included all patients identified in the compulsory Swedish nationwide patient register with a diagnosis of MI between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2011. Cardiovascular hospitalization and outpatient visits data from the patient register were combined with data from the cause of death register and the drug utilization register. For a subset of patients, data were also available from a primary care register. Healthcare resource use patterns and annual costs [reported in 2014 euros (€) converted from Swedish kronor (SEK) using the exchange rate €1 = SEK 9.33)] were estimated for the year prior to the occurrence of MI as well as for a maximum follow-up period of 6 years post-MI. The study included 97 252 patients with a diagnosis of MI with a total number of 285 351 observation years. The majority of healthcare consumption occurred within the first year of MI where patients were on average hospitalized 1.55 times, made 1.08 outpatient care visits, and 3.80 primary care visits. In the long term, for the majority of resource use categories, average consumption was higher in the years after MI compared with the year prior to MI. Healthcare costs at 6 years of follow-up were approximately €20 000 of which €12 460 occurred in the first year, and the major part was attributed to hospitalizations.

Conclusion

For patients with 6 years of follow-up after MI, healthcare costs were approximately €20 000. The major part of costs occurred in the first year after MI and was driven by hospitalizations.

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier

NCT01984307.

Association between breastfeeding and better preserved cognitive ability in an elderly cohort of Finnish men

BACKGROUND

Being breastfed in infancy has been shown to benefit neurodevelopment. However, whether the benefits persist to old age remains unclear.

METHODS

We examined the associations between breastfeeding and its duration on cognitive ability in young adulthood and old age, and on aging-related cognitive change over five decades. In total, 931 men from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study born in 1934-1944 in Finland took the Finnish Defence Forces Basic Intellectual Ability Test (total and verbal, arithmetic and visuospatial subtest scores) twice, at ages 20.2 and 67.9 years, and had data on breastfeeding (yes v. no) and its duration ('never breastfed', 'up to 3', '3 to 6' and '6 or more months'). Linear and mixed model regressions tested the associations.

RESULTS

At 20.2 years, breastfed men had higher cognitive ability total and visuospatial subtest scores [mean differences (MDs) ranged between 3.0-3.9, p values < 0.013], and its longer duration predicted higher cognitive ability total and arithmetic and visuospatial subtest scores (MDs ranged between 3.0 and 4.8, p values < 0.039). At 67.9 years, breastfed men had higher total cognitive ability and all subtest scores (MDs ranged between 2.6 and 3.4, p values < 0.044) and its longer duration predicted all cognitive ability scores (MDs ranged between 3.1 and 4.7, p values < 0.050). Verbal subtest scores decreased over five decades in men who were never breastfed or were breastfed for 3 months or less, and increased in those breastfed for longer than 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Neurodevelopmental advantages of breastfeeding and its longer duration persist into old age, and longer duration of breastfeeding may benefit aging-related change, particularly in verbal reasoning ability.

Balancing early access with uncertainties in evidence for drugs authorized by prospective case series - systematic review of reimbursement decisions

Aims

To review clinical and cost‐effectiveness evidence underlying reimbursement decisions relating to drugs whose authorization mainly is based on evidence from prospective case series.

Methods

A systematic review of all new drugs evaluated in 2011–2016 within a health care profession‐driven resource prioritization process, with a market approval based on prospective case series, and a reimbursement decision by the Swedish Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency (TLV). Public assessment reports from the European Medicines Agency, published pivotal studies, and TLV, Scottish Medicines Consortium and National Institute of Health and Care Excellence decisions and guidance documents were reviewed.

Results

Six drug cases were assessed (brentuximab vedotin, bosutinib, ponatinib, idelalisib, vismodegib, ceritinib). The validity of the pivotal studies was hampered by the use of surrogate primary outcomes and the absence of recruitment information. To quantify drug treatment effect sizes, the reimbursement agencies primarily used data from another source in indirect comparisons. TLV granted reimbursement in five cases, compared with five in five cases for Scottish Medicines Consortium and four in five cases for National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Decision modifiers, contributing to granted reimbursement despite hugely uncertain cost‐effectiveness ratios, were, for example, small population size, occasionally linked to budget impact, severity of disease, end of life and improved life expectancy.

Conclusion

For drugs whose authorization is based on prospective case series, most applications for reimbursement within public health care are granted. The underlying evidence has limitations over and above the design per se, and decision modifiers are frequently referred to in the value‐based pricing decision making.

Cardiovascular fitness in late adolescent males and later risk of serious non-affective mental disorders: a prospective, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular fitness in late adolescence is associated with future risk of depression. Relationships with other mental disorders need elucidation. This study investigated whether fitness in late adolescence is associated with future risk of serious non-affective mental disorders. Further, we examined how having an affected brother might impact the relationship.

METHOD

Prospective, population-based cohort study of 1 109 786 Swedish male conscripts with no history of mental illness, who underwent conscription examinations at age 18 between 1968 and 2005. Cardiovascular fitness was objectively measured at conscription using a bicycle ergometer test. During the follow-up (3-42 years), incident cases of serious non-affective mental disorders (schizophrenia and schizophrenia-like disorders, other psychotic disorders and neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders) were identified through the Swedish National Hospital Discharge Register. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the influence of cardiovascular fitness at conscription and risk of serious non-affective mental disorders later in life.

RESULTS

Low fitness was associated with increased risk for schizophrenia and schizophrenia-like disorders [hazard ratio (HR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.61], other psychotic disorders (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.27-1.56), and neurotic or stress-related and somatoform disorders (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.37-1.54). Relationships persisted in models that included illness in brothers.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower fitness in late adolescent males is associated with increased risk of serious non-affective mental disorders in adulthood.

Cost-effectiveness of comprehensive geriatric assessment at an ambulatory geriatric unit based on the AGe-FIT trial

Background

Older people with multi-morbidity are increasingly challenging for today’s healthcare, and novel, cost-effective healthcare solutions are needed. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) at an ambulatory geriatric unit for people ≥75 years with multi-morbidity.

Method

The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of a CGA strategy with usual care in a Swedish setting. Outcomes were estimated over a lifelong time horizon using decision-analytic modelling based on data from the randomized AGe-FIT trial. The analysis employed a public health care sector perspective. Costs and QALYs were discounted by 3% per annum and are reported in 2016 euros.

Results

Compared with usual care CGA was associated with a per patient mean incremental cost of approximately 25,000 EUR and a gain of 0.54 QALYs resulting in an ICER of 46,000 EUR. The incremental costs were primarily caused by intervention costs and costs associated with increased survival, whereas the gain in QALYs was primarily a consequence of the fact that patients in the CGA group lived longer.

Conclusion

CGA in an ambulatory setting for older people with multi-morbidity results in a cost per QALY of 46,000 EUR compared with usual care, a figure generally considered reasonable in a Swedish healthcare context. A rather simple reorganisation of care for older people with multi-morbidity may therefore cost effectively contribute to meet the needs of this complex patient population.

Trial registration

The trial was retrospectively registered in clinicaltrial.gov, NCT01446757. September, 2011.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-017-0703-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Repeated intermittent ulipristal acetate in the treatment of uterine fibroids: a cost-effectiveness analysis

There are limited treatment options available for women with moderate to severe symptoms of uterine fibroids (UFs) who wish to avoid surgery. For these women, treatment with standard pharmaceuticals such as contraceptives is often insufficient to relieve symptoms, and patients may require surgery despite their wish to avoid it. Clinical trials demonstrate that ulipristal acetate 5 mg (UPA) is an effective treatment for this patient group, but its cost-effectiveness has not been assessed in this population. A decision-analytic model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients in this population under treatment with UPA followed by surgery as needed compared to treatment with iron and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) followed by surgery as needed (best supportive care, BSC). The analysis took the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England, UK, and was based on the published UPA clinical trials. Results were calculated for the long-term costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each treatment arm and combined into an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as the primary outcome. The impact of parameter uncertainty on the results was assessed using scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The results show that treating patients with the UPA strategy, instead of the BSC strategy, results in an additional cost of £1,115 and a gain of 0.087 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of £12,850. Given commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds in England, the use of UPA as a repeated, intermittent treatment for women with moderate to severe symptoms of UF wishing to avoid surgery is likely to be a cost-effective intervention when compared to BSC.

Weight change patterns and healthcare costs in patients with newly-diagnosed type-2 diabetes in Sweden

AIMS

To describe weight-change pathways in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and associated healthcare costs using repeated BMI measurements and healthcare utilization data.

METHODS

Patients with newly-diagnosed T2D with body mass index (BMI, kg/m²) at diagnosis and subsequent measures at year 1-3 were identified. Based on three-year BMI change, patients were assigned to one of 27 BMI change pathways defined by annual BMI change: BMI↗ (≥1 BMI unit increase), BMI→ (<1 BMI unit change), and BMI↘ (≥1 BMI unit decrease). Mean annual and three-year cumulative healthcare costs were estimated for each pathway by combining Swedish unit costs with resource use from primary care and national patient registers.

RESULTS

Cohort consisted of 15,819 patients; 44% women, mean age of 61 years, HbA1c of 6.7% (50mmol/mol), BMI of 30.6kg/m². Most common BMI pathways (mean costs): BMI→→→ (€5,311), BMI↘→→ (€5,461), and BMI→→↘ (€6,281). General trends: BMI→→→ linked to lowest, BMI↗→↗ linked to highest costs.

CONCLUSION

In patients with newly-diagnosed T2D, weight stability was the most common BMI change pattern over 3 years and associated with lowest healthcare costs. Relationship between weight change and healthcare costs appears complex warranting further investigation.

Revisiting the cost-effectiveness of screening 65-year-old men for abdominal aortic aneurysm based on data from an implemented screening programme

BACKGROUND

Health economic analyses based on randomized trials have shown that screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) cost-effectively decreases AAA-related, as well as all- cause mortality. However, follow-up from implemented screening programmes now reveal substantially changed conditions in terms of prevalence, attendance rate, costs and mortality after intervention. Our aim was to evaluate whether screening for AAA among 65-year-old men is cost-effective based on contemporary data on prevalence and attendance rates from an ongoing AAA screening programme.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model, previously used to analyse the cost-effectiveness of an AAA screening programme prior to implementation in clinical practice, was updated using data collected from an implemented screening programme as well as data from contemporary published data and the Swedish register for vascular surgery (Swedvasc).

RESULTS

The base-case analysis showed that the cost per life-year gained and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained were €4832 and €6325, respectively. Based on conventional threshold values of cost-effectiveness, the probability of screening being cost-effective was high.

CONCLUSION

Despite the reduction of AAA-prevalence and changes in AAA-management over time, screening 65-year-old men for AAA still appears to yield health outcomes at a cost below conventional thresholds of cost-effectiveness.

Crystal Structure of the Emerging Cancer Target MTHFD2 in Complex with a Substrate-Based Inhibitor

To sustain their proliferation, cancer cells become dependent on one-carbon metabolism to support purine and thymidylate synthesis. Indeed, one of the most highly upregulated enzymes during neoplastic transformation is MTHFD2, a mitochondrial methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase and cyclohydrolase involved in one-carbon metabolism. Because MTHFD2 is expressed normally only during embryonic development, it offers a disease-selective therapeutic target for eradicating cancer cells while sparing healthy cells. Here we report the synthesis and preclinical characterization of the first inhibitor of human MTHFD2. We also disclose the first crystal structure of MTHFD2 in complex with a substrate-based inhibitor and the enzyme cofactors NAD⁺ and inorganic phosphate. Our work provides a rationale for continued development of a structural framework for the generation of potent and selective MTHFD2 inhibitors for cancer treatment. Cancer Res; 77(4); 937-48. ©2017 AACR.