The temporal kinetics of circulating angiopoietin levels in children with sepsis

Colivelin, a synthetic derivative of humanin, ameliorates endothelial injury and glycocalyx shedding after sepsis in mice

Endothelial dysfunction plays a central role in the pathogenesis of sepsis-mediated multiple organ failure. Several clinical and experimental studies have suggested that the glycocalyx is an early target of endothelial injury during an infection. Colivelin, a synthetic derivative of the mitochondrial peptide humanin, has displayed cytoprotective effects in oxidative conditions. In the current study, we aimed to determine the potential therapeutic effects of colivelin in endothelial dysfunction and outcomes of sepsis in vivo. Male C57BL/6 mice were subjected to a clinically relevant model of polymicrobial sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) and were treated with vehicle or colivelin (100-200 µg/kg) intraperitoneally at 1 h after CLP. We observed that vehicle-treated mice had early elevation of plasma levels of the adhesion molecules ICAM-1 and P-selectin, the angiogenetic factor endoglin and the glycocalyx syndecan-1 at 6 h after CLP when compared to control mice, while levels of angiopoietin-2, a mediator of microvascular disintegration, and the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, an enzyme implicated in clearance of endotoxins, raised at 18 h after CLP. The early elevation of these endothelial and glycocalyx damage biomarkers coincided with lung histological injury and neutrophil inflammation in lung, liver, and kidneys. At transmission electron microscopy analysis, thoracic aortas of septic mice showed increased glycocalyx breakdown and shedding, and damaged mitochondria in endothelial and smooth muscle cells. Treatment with colivelin ameliorated lung architecture, reduced organ neutrophil infiltration, and attenuated plasma levels of syndecan-1, tumor necrosis factor-α, macrophage inflammatory protein-1α and interleukin-10. These therapeutic effects of colivelin were associated with amelioration of glycocalyx density and mitochondrial structure in the aorta. At molecular analysis, colivelin treatment was associated with inhibition of the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 and activation of the AMP-activated protein kinase in the aorta and lung. In long-term outcomes studies up to 7 days, co-treatment of colivelin with antimicrobial agents significantly reduced the disease severity score when compared to treatment with antibiotics alone. In conclusion, our data support that damage of the glycocalyx is an early pathogenetic event during sepsis and that colivelin may have therapeutic potential for the treatment of sepsis-associated endothelial dysfunction.

Requirement of respiratory support in acute bronchiolitis in infants is linked to endothelial and neutrophil activation

BACKGROUND

Evidence shows that activation of pulmonary vascular endothelium and neutrophils are involved in the pathophysiology of acute bronchiolitis. We hypothesized that levels of markers of endothelial activation and leukocyte counts are associated with requirement and duration of respiratory support.

METHODS

Thirty-four infants with bronchiolitis and eight controls were included. Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were taken at admission. Serum levels of Angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, sP-selectin, sE-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and leukocyte counts were measured. For univariate analysis, bronchiolitis cases were grouped into two groups, namely those not requiring and those requiring any form of respiratory support. To control for known risk factors for poor outcome (i.e., age, prematurity, and congenital heart disease), and for days post symptom onset, linear regression analysis was performed with duration of any type of respiratory support in days.

RESULTS

Ang-2 levels, Ang-2/Ang-1 ratios, sE-selectin levels, immature neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were higher in acute bronchiolitis versus controls. Ang-2, and NLR levels were significantly higher, and lymphocyte counts significantly lower, in infants that required respiratory support versus those that did not. Ang-2 levels (β: .32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19-1.19) and NLR (β: .68, 95% CI: 0.17-1.19) were positive predictors for the duration of respiratory support.

CONCLUSIONS

Markers of endothelial and neutrophil activation are associated with respiratory support for acute bronchiolitis. Admission Ang-2 levels and NLR may be promising markers to determine requirement of respiratory support and deserve further study.

Kinetics of Plasma Cytokines, Angiopoietin-2, and C-Reactive Protein in Dogs With Gastric Dilatation Volvulus

Background: The degree of systemic inflammation, reperfusion injury and endothelial activation are potentially important determinants of clinical outcomes in dogs with gastric dilatation volvulus (GDV).

Objective: To evaluate plasma concentrations and kinetics of inflammatory markers in dogs with GDV over a time frame of 48 h, and to compare to healthy dogs.

Design and Setting: Prospective, observational cohort study in client-owned dogs with GDV.

Materials and Methods: Fifteen dogs with GDV and 9 healthy control dogs were enrolled. Plasma concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-15, IL-18, interferon gamma (IFN-γ), keratinocyte chemotactic-like, monocyte chemotactic protein (MCP)-1, Angiopoietin (Ang)-2, and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission (prior any therapeutic intervention, (T0), immediately after surgery (T1), 24 ± 4 h (T24), and 48 ± 4 h (T48) post-surgery. Cytokines were measured using multiplex magnetic bead assay. Plasma Ang-2 was measured with a commercial human ELISA test kit validated for dogs.

Results: Dogs with GDV had significantly higher plasma concentrations of IFN-γ and IL-10 compared to healthy control dogs at all time points. Concentrations of IL-6 were significantly higher at T1 and T24, concentrations of MCP-1 at T24, and concentrations of CRP at T24 and T48. A significant increase between T0 and T1 was found for IL-6, IL-10, and CRP, between T1 and T24 for IL-8, IFN-γ, MCP-1, and CRP, and between T24 and T48 for IL-15, Ang-2, and CRP. A significant decrease between T0 and T1 was found for IL-7, IL-8, IL-15, IL-18, and Ang-2; between T1 and T24 for IL-6 and KC-like; and between T24 and T48 for IL-6.

Conclusion: In GDV dogs, a mild pro-inflammatory reaction was present at admission, which peaked immediately after and up to 24 h post-surgery, mainly represented by IL-6, IFN-γ, MCP-1, and CRP, and which decreased at T48. In addition, the anti-inflammatory IL-10 was increased in GDV dogs at all time points.

Serum Levels of Markers of Endothelial Activation Are Not Associated with a Positive Blood Culture in Surinamese Children with Suspected Severe Infection

BACKGROUND

Systemic serum levels of markers of endothelial activation are associated with infection. We hypothesize that levels of markers of endothelial activation are associated with the presence of a positive blood culture as a manifestation of a systemic infection in children with a suspected severe infection in Suriname.

METHODS

In this prospective observational cohort study, children between 1 month and 18 years of age suspected of severe infection as assessed by the threating physician, and in whom laboratory testing and blood culturing was performed before start of intravenous antibiotic treatment, were recruited at the emergency department of the Academic Hospital Paramaribo, Suriname. Serum was collected at blood culturing and after 48-72 h of admission. Serum was stored for measurement of levels of Angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, soluble (s)P-selectin, sE-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and platelet and endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1.

RESULTS

Fifty-one children were included of whom 10 had a positive blood culture. Baseline characteristics were similar between children with and without a positive blood culture. No significant differences in serum levels of the Angiopoietins or soluble cellular adhesion molecules between groups were observed at start of antibiotic treatment nor after 48-72 h.

CONCLUSIONS

The data from this study indicate that in children with severe infection, serum levels of markers of endothelial cell activation are not associated with a positive blood culture. Thus, having a positive bacterial blood culture may not be the only factor driving endothelial activation in this patient population.

Associations of Plasma Angiopoietins-1 and -2 and Angiopoietin-2/-1 Ratios With Measures of Organ Injury and Clinical Outcomes in Children With Sepsis: A Preliminary Report

OBJECTIVES

Results from preclinical and adult sepsis studies suggest that the balance of circulating angiopoietin-1 and -2 levels, represented as angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios, plays a pivotal role in mediating vascular dysfunction and organ injury during sepsis. However, the relationship of plasma angiopoietins with organ injury and clinical outcomes in children with sepsis remains unknown. We sought to determine whether plasma angiopoietin-1 and -2 levels and angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios in the acute phase of sepsis correlated with measures of organ injury and clinical outcomes in children with sepsis.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

PICU within a tertiary freestanding children's hospital.

PATIENTS

Children 18 years old or less and greater than 3 kg admitted to the PICU for sepsis.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Plasma angiopoietin-1 and -2 levels were measured in 38 children with sepsis 0-6, 24, 48, and 72 hours following PICU admission. Children with elevated pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores on the third day after PICU admission demonstrated significantly higher 24-72-hour angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios predominantly as a function of higher angiopoietin-2 levels. In children with sepsis-induced organ dysfunction, angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios correlated with oxygenation indices and serum levels of creatinine and bilirubin. Forty-eight- and 72-hour angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios correlated with PICU length of stay (Spearman rho = 0.485, p = 0.004 and rho = 0.440, p = 0.015, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In the acute phase of sepsis in children, plasma angiopoietin-2/-1 ratios rise significantly above control levels and correlate with measures of organ injury and worse clinical outcomes after 24 hours. Our findings suggest that angiopoietin dysregulation begins early in sepsis and, if sustained, may promote greater organ injury that can lead to worse clinical outcomes.

Biomarkers in pediatric sepsis: a review of recent literature

Sepsis remains the leading cause of death in infants and children worldwide. Prompt diagnosis and monitoring of infection is pivotal to guide therapy and optimize outcomes. No single biomarker has so far been identified to accurately diagnose sepsis, monitor response and predict severity. We aimed to assess existing evidence of available sepsis biomarkers, and their utility in pediatric population. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin remain the most extensively evaluated and used biomarkers. However, biomarkers related to endothelial damage, vasodilation, oxidative stress, cytokines/chemokines and cell bioproducts have also been identified, often with regard to the site of infection and etiologic pathogen; still, with controversial utility. A multi-biomarker model driven by genomic tools could establish a personalized approach in future disease management.

Angiopoietin Level Trajectories in Toddlers With Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock and Their Effect on Capillary Endothelium

OBJECTIVE

Angiopoietins are postulated diagnostic biomarkers in children and adults with severe sepsis and septic shock. The diagnostic value of angiopoietins in children less than 5 years old has not been established, nor has their effect on permeability in the capillary microvasculature. We aim to determine if levels of angiopoietin-1 or -2 (angpt-1, -2) are diagnostic for severe sepsis/shock in young children and whether they affect the permeability of cultured human dermal microvascular endothelial cells (HDMEC).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study of children < 5 years old. Patients were classified as non-systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), SIRS/sepsis and severe sepsis/septic shock.

SETTING

Tertiary care pediatric hospitals.

PATIENTS

Critically ill children.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS

Plasma angpt-1 and -2 levels were measured with enzyme-linked immunoassays. Expression of angpt-2 in endothelial cells was assessed with quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Permeability changes in cultured HDMECs were assessed with transendothelial electrical resistance measurements.

RESULTS

Angpt-1 levels were significantly higher in younger children compared with levels found in previous study of older children across disease severity (all P < 0.001). Angpt-2 was significantly higher in this cohort with severe sepsis/septic shock compared with children without SIRS and SIRS/sepsis (all P < 0.003). Angpt-2/1 ratio was also elevated in children with severe sepsis/septic shock but an order of magnitude less than older children (P < 0.02, P = 0.002). Angpt-1 and -2 did not affect basal HDMEC permeability or modulate leak in isolation or in the presence of tumor necrosis factor (TNF).

CONCLUSIONS

Angpt-2 levels and the angpt-2/1 ratio are appropriate diagnostic biomarkers of severe sepsis/septic shock in children less than 5 years old. Neither angpt-1 nor -2 affects basal HDMEC permeability alone or modulates TNF induced capillary leak.

Plasma Levels, Temporal Trends and Clinical Associations between Biomarkers of Inflammation and Vascular Homeostasis after Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury

Expression of inflammatory (interleukin-6 [IL-6]) and vascular homeostatic (angiopoietin-2 [AP-2], endothelin-1 [ET-1], endocan-2 [EC-2]) biomarkers in pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) was examined in this prospective, observational cohort study of 28 children hospitalized with mild, moderate, and severe TBI by clinical measures (age, sex, Glasgow Coma Scale score [GCS], Injury Severity Score [ISS], and cerebral autoregulation status). Biomarker patterns suggest an inverse relationship between GCS and AP-2, GCS and IL-6, ISS and ET-1, but a direct relationship between GCS and ET-1 and ISS and AP-2. Biomarker patterns suggest an inverse relationship between AP-2 and ET-1, AP-2 and EC-2, but a direct relationship between AP-2 and IL-6, IL-6 and EC-2, and IL-6 and ET-1. Plasma concentrations of inflammatory and vascular homeostatic biomarkers suggest a role for inflammation and disruption of vascular homeostasis during the first 10 days across the severity spectrum of pediatric TBI. Although not statistically significant, without impact on cerebral autoregulation, biomarker patterns suggest a relationship between inflammation and alterations in vascular homeostasis. The large variation in biomarker levels within TBI severity and age groups, and by sex suggests other contributory factors to biomarker expression.

Systemic Angiopoietin-1/2 Dysregulation in Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock

Background: Angiopoietin-1 and -2 are vascular growth factors that exert opposing effects on endothelial activation and dysfunction. The aim of this study was to assess the association of these biomarkers with outcomes in children with sepsis. Methods: Biomarkers were assayed from the blood collected in an emergency department prior to any intervention. Predictor variables were Ang-1 and Ang-2 levels and the Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio. Outcomes included mortality, length of time on vasopressors, and ICU and hospital lengths of stay. The Pediatric RISk of Mortality III Score was calculated. A vasoactive inotrope score was calculated every 12 hours. Results: Forty-five children with sepsis and 49 with septic shock were analyzed. The median Ang-2 was higher in septic shock. The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was approximately 2-fold greater in those with septic shock. The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was associated with higher doses of vasoactive agents at 12 hours and longer ICU length of stay. In septic shock, for every 0.35 unit increase in the Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio, the PRISM III score increased by 1. Conclusions: The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was higher in children with septic shock. Ang-2/Ang-1 was associated with higher vasoactive agents, longer ICU length of stay, and correlated with the severity of illness score.

Low Serum Angiopoietin-1, High Serum Angiopoietin-2, and High Ang-2/Ang-1 Protein Ratio are Associated with Early Onset Sepsis in Surinamese Newborns

PURPOSE

Vascular inflammation and leakage in sepsis is mediated by Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) and Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and their phosphorylation of the endothelial Tie-2 receptor. This study investigates levels of Ang-1 and Ang-2 in newborns to gain insight in the vascular pathophysiology of early onset sepsis (EOS) within 72 h after birth.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was performed among 71 Surinamese newborns treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS and 20 control newborns. Newborns with suspected EOS were divided in two groups: blood culture negative and positive EOS. Ang-1 and Ang-2 levels were measured in serum obtained at the start of antibiotic treatment and at re-evaluation after 48 to 72 h.

RESULTS

In this cohort 8.5% of newborns had a positive blood culture. At the start of antibiotic treatment Ang-1 serum levels were lower (P < 0.01), and Ang-2 and Ang-2/Ang-1 serum protein ratios were higher (P < 0.01 and P < 0.01, respectively) in newborns with blood culture positive EOS than in controls. These levels were not dependent on timing of first blood draw after birth. After 48 to 72 h levels of Ang-1 further decreased in blood culture positive EOS, while in the other groups no change was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis that a disbalance in the Angiopoietins plays a role in the vascular pathophysiology of EOS.

Endothelial Activation: The Ang/Tie Axis in Sepsis

Sepsis, a dysregulated host response to infection that causes life-threatening organ dysfunction, is a highly heterogeneous syndrome with no specific treatment. Although sepsis can be caused by a wide variety of pathogenic organisms, endothelial dysfunction leading to vascular leak is a common mechanism of injury that contributes to the morbidity and mortality associated with the syndrome. Perturbations to the angiopoietin (Ang)/Tie2 axis cause endothelial cell activation and contribute to the pathogenesis of sepsis. In this review, we summarize how the Ang/Tie2 pathway is implicated in sepsis and describe its prognostic as well as therapeutic utility in life-threatening infections.

Biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction predict sepsis mortality in young infants: a matched case-control study

Background

Reducing death due to neonatal sepsis is a global health priority, however there are limited tools to facilitate early recognition and treatment. We hypothesized that measuring circulating biomarkers of endothelial function and integrity (i.e. Angiopoietin-Tie2 axis) would identify young infants with sepsis and predict their clinical outcome.

Methods

We conducted a matched case-control (1:3) study of 98 young infants aged 0–59 days of life presenting to a referral hospital in Bangladesh with suspected sepsis. Plasma levels of Ang-1, Ang-2, sICAM-1, and sVCAM-1 concentrations were measured at admission. The primary outcome was mortality (n = 18); the secondary outcome was bacteremia (n = 10).

Results

Ang-2 concentrations at presentation were higher among infants who subsequently died of sepsis compared to survivors (aOR 2.50, p = 0.024). Compared to surviving control infants, the Ang-2:Ang-1 ratio was higher among infants who died (aOR 2.29, p = 0.016) and in infants with bacteremia (aOR 5.72, p = 0.041), and there was an increased odds of death across Ang-2:Ang-1 ratio tertiles (aOR 4.82, p = 0.013).

Conclusions

This study provides new evidence linking the Angiopoietin-Tie2 pathway with mortality and bacteremia in young infants with suspected sepsis. If validated in additional studies, markers of the angiopoietin-Tie2 axis may have clinical utility in risk stratification of infants with suspected sepsis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12887-018-1087-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Endothelial Cell Function and Dysfunction in Critically Ill Children

Endothelial cells (ECs) line the lumen of the entire vascular system and actively regulate blood flow; maintain blood fluidity; control water, solute, and macromolecular transfer between blood and tissue; and modulate circulating immune cell recruitment and activation. These vital functions, combined with the broad anatomic distribution of ECs, implicate them in all forms of critical illness. The present article discusses how ECs adapt and break down during the course of critical illness. We first review the biology of ECs, highlighting the vascular segmental differences and their specific roles in the maintenance of homeostasis. We then discuss how ECs acquire new functions to restore local and systemic homeostasis (activation) as well as how breakdowns in EC functions (dysfunction) contribute to local and systemic pathologic responses, with clinical correlations. Lastly, how these processes have been studied in critically ill children is discussed.

Therapeutic targeting of the angiopoietin-TIE pathway

The endothelial angiopoietin (ANG)-TIE growth factor receptor pathway regulates vascular permeability and pathological vascular remodelling during inflammation, tumour angiogenesis and metastasis. Drugs that target the ANG-TIE pathway are in clinical development for oncological and ophthalmological applications. The aim is to complement current vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-based anti-angiogenic therapies in cancer, wet age-related macular degeneration and macular oedema. The unique function of the ANG-TIE pathway in vascular stabilization also renders this pathway an attractive target in sepsis, organ transplantation, atherosclerosis and vascular complications of diabetes. This Review covers key aspects of the function of the ANG-TIE pathway in vascular disease and describes the recent development of novel therapeutics that target this pathway.

Are there new approaches for diagnosis, therapy guidance and outcome prediction of sepsis?

Beside many efforts to improve outcome, sepsis is still one of the most frequent causes of death in critically ill patients. It is the most common condition with high mortality in intensive care units. The complexity of the septic syndrome comprises immunological aspects - i.e., sepsis induced immunosuppression - but is not restricted to this fact in modern concepts. So far, exact mechanisms and variables determining outcome and mortality stay unclear. Since there is no typical risk profile, early diagnosis and risk stratification remain difficult, which hinders rapid and effective treatment initiation. Due to the heterogeneous nature of sepsis, potential therapy options should be adapted to the individual. Biomarkers like C-reactive protein and procalcitonin are routinely used as complementary tools in clinical decision-making. Beyond the acute phase proteins, a wide bunch of promising substances and non-laboratory tools with potential diagnostic and prognostic value is under intensive investigation. So far, clinical decision just based on biomarker assessment is not yet feasible. However, biomarkers should be considered as a complementary approach.

The Role of Angiopoietine-2 in the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Sepsis

Introduction

Angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2) is a new biomarker whose blood-serum values increase in sepsis and its expression is elevated in line with the severity of the degree of inflammation. The aim of this study was to identify the diagnostic role of ANG-2 in patients with non-surgical sepsis addmitted to an intensive care unit.

Material and methods

This was a prospective randomized study including 74 patients admitted in the Clinic of Intensive Care of the County Clinical Emergency Hospital Tirgu Mureș, divided into two groups: Group S: patients with sepsis (n=40, 54%) and Group C:control, without sepsis (n=34, 46%). ANG-2 levels were determined in both groups.

Results

From the Group S, 14 patients (35%) had positive haemocultures. ANG-2 values varied between 1 and 43 ng/mL, with an average of 6.0 ng/mL in patients without sepsis and 10.38 ng/mL in patients with sepsis (p=0.021). A positive correlation between ANG-2 and SAPS II, SOFA and APACHE II severity scores was demonstrated, as was a positive correlation between serum levels of ANG-2 and procalcitonine. ANG-2 had a 5.71% specificity and 74.36% sensitivity for diagnosis of sepsis.

Conclusions

ANG-2 serum levels were elevated in sepsis, being well correlated with PCT values and prognostic scores. ANG-2 should be considered as a useful biomarker for the diagnosis and the prognosis of this pathology.

Angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2 and bicarbonate as diagnostic biomarkers in children with severe sepsis

Severe pediatric sepsis continues to be associated with high mortality rates in children. Thus, an important area of biomedical research is to identify biomarkers that can classify sepsis severity and outcomes. The complex and heterogeneous nature of sepsis makes the prospect of the classification of sepsis severity using a single biomarker less likely. Instead, we employ machine learning techniques to validate the use of a multiple biomarkers scoring system to determine the severity of sepsis in critically ill children. The study was based on clinical data and plasma samples provided by a tertiary care center's Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) from a group of 45 patients with varying sepsis severity at the time of admission. Canonical Correlation Analysis with the Forward Selection and Random Forests methods identified a particular set of biomarkers that included Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1), Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), and Bicarbonate (HCO) as having the strongest correlations with sepsis severity. The robustness and effectiveness of these biomarkers for classifying sepsis severity were validated by constructing a linear Support Vector Machine diagnostic classifier. We also show that the concentrations of Ang-1, Ang-2, and HCO enable predictions of the time dependence of sepsis severity in children.

The temporal version of the pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model

Background

PERSEVERE is a risk model for estimating mortality probability in pediatric septic shock, using five biomarkers measured within 24 hours of clinical presentation.

Objective

Here, we derive and test a temporal version of PERSEVERE (tPERSEVERE) that considers biomarker values at the first and third day following presentation to estimate the probability of a “complicated course”, defined as persistence of ≥2 organ failures at seven days after meeting criteria for septic shock, or death within 28 days.

Methods

Biomarkers were measured in the derivation cohort (n = 225) using serum samples obtained during days 1 and 3 of septic shock. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to derive a model to estimate the risk of a complicated course. The derived model was validated in the test cohort (n = 74), and subsequently updated using the combined derivation and test cohorts.

Results

A complicated course occurred in 23% of the derivation cohort subjects. The derived model had a sensitivity for a complicated course of 90% (95% CI 78–96), specificity was 70% (62–77), positive predictive value was 47% (37–58), and negative predictive value was 96% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (0.79–0.90). Similar test characteristics were observed in the test cohort. The updated model had a sensitivity of 91% (81–96), a specificity of 70% (64–76), a positive predictive value of 47% (39–56), and a negative predictive value of 96% (92–99).

Conclusions

tPERSEVERE reasonably estimates the probability of a complicated course in children with septic shock. tPERSEVERE could potentially serve as an adjunct to physiological assessments for monitoring how risk for poor outcomes changes during early interventions in pediatric septic shock.

Testing the prognostic accuracy of the updated pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model

BACKGROUND

We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl). PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355) and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort.

OBJECTIVE

To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort.

METHODS

Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system.

RESULTS

Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62-95), specificity was 75% (68-82), positive predictive value was 34% (22-47), and negative predictive value was 97% (91-99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70-0.92). The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47-1.35; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system.