Reduced rates of HIV acquisition during unprotected sex by Kenyan female sex workers predating population declines in HIV prevalence

The epidemiology of HIV infection among female sex workers in Nairobi, Kenya: A structural determinants and life-course perspective

High HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) is heavily influenced by structural determinants (e.g. criminalisation of sex work; violence) and significant life events (e.g. orphanhood, teenage pregnancy). This study aims to understand the epidemiology of HIV among FSWs in Nairobi, Kenya using a structural determinants and life-course perspective. Baseline cross-sectional survey data were collected June-December 2019 for the Maisha Fiti study with 1003 FSWs (aged 18-45 years). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using multivariable logistic regression with a hierarchical modelling approach. HIV prevalence was 28.0%, and increased with age (<25 years 5.7%, 25-34 years 19.0%, ≥35 years 40.6%). In adjusted analyses, HIV seroprevalence was associated with childhood and adolescence including violence from militia or soldiers (AOR = 1.60; 95%CI:1.00-2.53), young age at sexual debut (≤15 years old vs. ≥18 years AOR = 0.57; 95%CI:0.39-0.84) and teenage pregnancy (AOR = 1.37; 95%CI:1.00-1.88). For adulthood the factors included lower SES score (lowest vs. highest tertile AOR = 0.63; 95%CI:0.40-0.98); reduced housing insecurity (AOR = 0.52; 95%CI:0.54-0.79); lower alcohol/drug use score (AOR = 0.44; 95%CI:0.31-0.61); and a longer duration of selling sex (0-5 years vs. ≥11 years AOR = 2.35; 95%CI:1.44-3.82). Among HIV-negative FSWs, prevalence of HIV risk factors was high (recent hunger 32.3%; internalised 67.7% and experienced 66.0% sex work stigma; recent police arrest 30.1%; recent physical or sexual violence 65.6%, condomless last sex intimate partner 71.1%; harmful alcohol or substance use 49.1%). Only 24.6% of HIV-negative FSWs reported taking PrEP. Taken together, adverse events in childhood and adolescence were associated with increased odds of living with HIV, and were more strongly associated with HIV serostatus than adulthood structural or behavioural risk factors. HIV-negative FSWs remain at high risk of HIV acquisition. This study highlights the importance of addressing adverse events throughout the life course to reduce HIV risk, and the need to continue multi-level HIV prevention and treatment efforts.

Declines in HIV prevalence in female sex workers accessing an HIV treatment and prevention programme in Nairobi, Kenya over a 10-year period

OBJECTIVES

Empirical time trends in HIV prevalence in female sex workers (FSWs) are helpful to understand the evolving HIV epidemic, and to monitor the scale-up, coverage, and impact of ongoing HIV prevention and treatment programmes.

DESIGN

Serial HIV prevalence study.

METHODS

We analyzed time trends in HIV prevalence in FSWs accessing services at seven Sex Worker Outreach Programme (SWOP) clinics in Nairobi from 2008 to 2017 (N = 33 560). The Mantel--Haenszel test for trend and independent samples Kruskal--Wallis test were used to analyze categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Multivariable binomial regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios/year, adjusting for several covariates.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence decreased over time in all age groups. This was particularly evident among FSWs less than 25 years of age; HIV was 17.5% in 2008-2009, decreasing to 12.2% in 2010-2011, 8.3% in 2012-2013, 7.3% in 2014-2015, and 4.8% in 2016-2017 (P < 0.0001). Over time, FSWs reported increased condom use, particularly with regular partners, more frequent prior HIV testing, and were less likely to report a history of vaginal discharge (P < 0.0001). In adjusted analyses compared with 2008, HIV prevalence decreased in 2011 (aPR 0.64; 95% CI: 0.46-0.90), 2012 (aPR 0.58; 95% CI: 0.41-0.81), 2013 (aPR 0.53; 95% CI: 0.38-0.73), 2014 (aPR 0.48; 95% CI: 0.34-0.67), 2015 (aPR 0.50; 95% CI: 0.35-0.70), 2016 (aPR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.28-0.57), and 2017 (aPR 0.33; 95% CI: 0.22-0.50).

CONCLUSION

HIV prevalence has decreased among FSW accessing SWOP in Nairobi, Kenya. This decline is consistent with the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment efforts, both in FSWs and in the general population.

Transitions: Novel Study Methods to Understand Early HIV Risk Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Mombasa, Kenya, and Dnipro, Ukraine

Transitions aims to understand the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk at critical transition points in the sexual life course of adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who engage in casual sex, transactional sex, and sex work. In this article, we present the Transitions study methods. The Transitions study has the following objectives: (1) to describe how the characteristics and length of the transition period and access gap vary across two epidemiological contexts (Mombasa, Kenya, and Dnipro, Ukraine); (2) to understand how the risk of HIV varies by length and characteristics of the transition period and access gap across epidemiologic contexts; and (3) to assess the extent to which HIV infections acquired during the transition period and access gap could mitigate the population-level impact of focused interventions for female sex workers and explore the potential marginal benefit of expanding programs to reach AGYW during the transition period and access gap. Cross-sectional biobehavioral data were collected from young women aged 14 to 24 years who were recruited from locations in Mombasa County, Kenya, and Dnipro, Ukraine, where sex work took place. Data are available for 1,299 Kenyan and 1,818 Ukrainian participants. The survey addressed the following areas: timing of transition events (first sex, first exchange of sex for money or other resources, self-identification as sex workers, entry into formal sex work, access to prevention program services); sexual behaviors (condom use, anal sex, sex under the influence of drugs or alcohol); partnerships (regular and first-time clients, regular and first-time transactional sex partners, and husbands and boyfriends); alcohol use; injection and non-injection illicit drug use; experience of violence; access to HIV prevention and treatment program; testing for sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections and HIV; and reproductive health (pregnancies, abortions, contraceptives). HIV and hepatitis C virus prevalence data were based on rapid test results. Mathematical modeling will be used to generate projections of onward HIV transmission at specific transition points in the sexual life course of AGYW. Taken together, these data form a novel data resource providing comprehensive behavioral, structural, and biological data on a high-risk group of AGYW in two distinct sociocultural and epidemiologic contexts.

Low program access despite high burden of sexual, structural, and reproductive health vulnerabilities among young women who sell sex in Mombasa, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, young women who sell sex (YSW) face institutional barriers in accessing sexual health and HIV prevention programs designed for female sex workers. In 2018, Kenya developed a national framework to guide service provision for YSW aged 14-24 years. To help inform the implementation of the framework, we estimated the burden of vulnerabilities related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs related to health and gender equality) and program contact among YSW.

METHODS

We used data from Transitions, a 2015 bio-behavioural cross-sectional survey of 408 YSW aged 14-24 years in Mombasa, Kenya. We estimated the prevalence of sexual (inconsistent condom use), structural (financial, violence), and reproductive health vulnerabilities; and characterized engagement with local HIV programs tailored to sex workers. We then compared the prevalence of vulnerabilities by age group (14-18 years, N = 117; 19-24 years, N = 291) and by program contact (ever contacted by local program for sex workers).

RESULTS

47.3% reported inconsistent condom use with any partner in the previous week (no difference by age-group, p = 1.00). Structural vulnerabilities were common and did not vary by age: 83.6% did not have a regular source of income; 29.9 and 29.2% had experienced physical and sexual violence, respectively. 26.5% reported at least one pregnancy before age 18, and 18.5% used a non-reliable form of contraception with little variability by age. 25.7% were aware of at least one program, and only 13.7% of YSW had ever been contacted by a program (8.5% of those aged 14-18 years; and 15.8% of those aged 19-24 years, p = 0.06). Sexual, structural, and reproductive health vulnerabilities did not vary by program contact.

CONCLUSIONS

SDG-related vulnerabilities begin early in the lives of YSW who are not currently reached by programs designed for female sex workers.

Systematic review of sex work interventions in sub-Saharan Africa: examining combination prevention approaches

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections is disproportionately high among sex workers (SW). We aimed to update the evidence on the effectiveness of SW interventions in sub-Saharan Africa and to provide more insights into combination prevention.

METHODS

The Systematic review followed PRISMA guidelines in a search of PUBMED and POPLINE for peer-reviewed literature published between 1 January 2000 and 22 July 2016 (registration number on PROSPERO: CRD42016042529). We considered cohort interventions, randomised controlled trials and cross-sectional surveys of SW programmes. A framework was used in the description and mapping of intervention to desired outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-six papers(reporting on 25 studies) were included. A strategy that empowered peer educator leaders to steer community activities showed a twofold increase in coverage of behaviour change communication and utilisation of health facility among SW. Brief alcohol harm reduction effort demonstrated a significant effect on sexual violence and engagement in sex trading. A risk reduction counselling intervention among drug-injecting SW showed an effect on alcohol, substance use and engagement in sex work. No study on a promising intervention like PrEP among SWs was found. We observed that interventions that combined some structural components, biomedical and behavioural strategies tend to accumulate more desired outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The evidence base that can be considered in intervention designs to prevent HIV in SW in SSA is vast. The health sector should consider interventions to reduce binge alcohol intake and intravenous drug use among sex workers. Programmes should staunchly consider multicomponent approaches that explore community-based structural approaches.

A model to estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C infection despite negative nucleic acid testing among increased-risk organ donors

BACKGROUND

In 2013, guidelines were released for reducing the risk of viral bloodborne pathogen transmission through organ transplantation. Eleven criteria were described that result in a donor being designated at increased infectious risk. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk from an increased-risk donor (IRD), despite negative nucleic acid testing (NAT), likely varies based on behavior type and timing.

METHODS

We developed a Monte Carlo risk model to quantify probability of HIV among IRDs. The model included NAT performance, viral load dynamics, and per-act risk of acquiring HIV by each behavior. The model also quantifies the probability of HCV among IRDs by non-medical intravenous drug use (IVDU).

RESULTS

Highest risk is among donors with history of unprotected, receptive anal male-to-male intercourse with partner of unknown HIV status (MSM), followed by sex with an HIV-infected partner, IVDU, and sex with a commercial sex worker.

CONCLUSION

With NAT screening, the estimated risk of undetected HIV remains small even at 1 day following a risk behavior. The estimated risk for HCV transmission through IVDU is likewise small and decreases quicker with time owing to the faster viral growth dynamics of HCV compared with HIV. These findings may allow for improved organ allocation, utilization, and recipient informed consent.

PrEP for key populations in combination HIV prevention in Nairobi: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic in the population of Nairobi as a whole is in decline, but a concentrated sub-epidemic persists in key populations. We aimed to identify an optimal portfolio of interventions to reduce HIV incidence for a given budget and to identify the circumstances in which pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could be used in Nairobi, Kenya.

METHODS

A mathematical model was developed to represent HIV transmission in specific key populations (female sex workers, male sex workers, and men who have sex with men [MSM]) and among the wider population of Nairobi. The scale-up of existing interventions (condom promotion, antiretroviral therapy, and male circumcision) for key populations and the wider population as have occurred in Nairobi is represented. The model includes a detailed representation of a PrEP intervention and is calibrated to prevalence and incidence estimates specific to key populations and the wider population.

FINDINGS

In the context of a declining epidemic overall but with a large sub-epidemic in MSM and male sex workers, an optimal prevention portfolio for Nairobi should focus on condom promotion for male sex workers and MSM in particular, followed by improved antiretroviral therapy retention, earlier antiretroviral therapy, and male circumcision as the budget allows. PrEP for male sex workers could enter an optimal portfolio at similar levels of spending to when earlier antiretroviral therapy is included; however, PrEP for MSM and female sex workers would be included only at much higher budgets. If PrEP for male sex workers cost as much as US$500, average annual spending on the interventions modelled would need to be less than $3·27 million for PrEP for male sex workers to be excluded from an optimal portfolio. Estimated costs per infection averted when providing PrEP to all female sex workers regardless of their risk of infection, and to high-risk female sex workers only, are $65 160 (95% credible interval [CrI] $43 520-$90 250) and $10 920 (95% CrI $4700-$51 560), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

PrEP could be a useful contribution to combination prevention, especially for under-served key populations in Nairobi. An ongoing demonstration project will provide important information regarding practical aspects of implementing PrEP for key populations in this setting.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementation and Operational Research: Cohort Analysis of Program Data to Estimate HIV Incidence and Uptake of HIV-Related Services Among Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe, 2009-2014

BACKGROUND

HIV epidemiology and intervention uptake among female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa remain poorly understood. Data from outreach programs are a neglected resource.

METHODS

Analysis of data from FSW consultations with Zimbabwe's National Sex Work program, 2009-2014. At each visit, data were collected on sociodemographic characteristics, HIV testing history, HIV tests conducted by the program and antiretroviral (ARV) history. Characteristics at first visit and longitudinal data on program engagement, repeat HIV testing, and HIV seroconversion were analyzed using a cohort approach.

RESULTS

Data were available for 13,360 women, 31,389 visits, 14,579 reported HIV tests, 2750 tests undertaken by the program, and 2387 reported ARV treatment initiations. At first visit, 72% of FSW had tested for HIV; 50% of these reported being HIV positive. Among HIV-positive women, 41% reported being on ARV. 56% of FSW attended the program only once. FSW who had not previously had an HIV-positive test had been tested within the last 6 months 27% of the time during follow-up. After testing HIV positive, women started on ARV at a rate of 23/100 person years of follow-up. Among those with 2 or more HIV tests, the HIV seroconversion rate was 9.8/100 person years of follow-up (95% confidence interval: 7.1 to 15.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level outreach program data can be used to estimate HIV incidence and intervention uptake among FSW in Zimbabwe. Current data suggest very high HIV prevalence and incidence among this group and help identify areas for program improvement. Further methodological validation is required.

Risk Factors for HIV Acquisition in a Prospective Nairobi-Based Female Sex Worker Cohort

With two million new HIV infections annually, ongoing investigations of risk factors for HIV acquisition is critical to guide ongoing HIV prevention efforts. We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of HIV uninfected female sex workers enrolled at an HIV prevention clinic in Nairobi (n = 1640). In the initially HIV uninfected cohort (70 %), we observed 34 HIV infections during 1514 person-years of follow-up, i.e. an annual incidence of 2.2 % (95 % CI 1.6-3.1 %). In multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard analysis, HIV acquisition was associated with a shorter baseline duration of sex work (aHR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.63-0.91), minimum charge/sex act (aHR 2.74, 0.82-9.15, for low vs. intermediate; aHR 5.70, 1.96-16.59, for high vs. intermediate), N. gonorrhoeae infection (aAHR 5.89, 95 % CI 2.03-17.08), sex with casual clients during menses (aHR 6.19, 95 % CI 2.58-14.84), Depo Provera use (aHR 5.12, 95 % CI 1.98-13.22), and estimated number of annual unprotected regular partner contacts (aHR 1.004, 95 % CI 1.001-1.006). Risk profiling based on baseline predictors suggested that substantial heterogeneity in HIV risk is evident, even within a key population. These data highlight several risk factors for HIV acquisition that could help to re-focus HIV prevention messages.

A 15-year study of the impact of community antiretroviral therapy coverage on HIV incidence in Kenyan female sex workers

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that increasing community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage would be associated with lower HIV incidence in female sex workers (FSWs) in Mombasa District, Kenya.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

From 1998 to 2012, HIV-negative FSWs were asked to return monthly for an interview regarding risk behavior and testing for sexually transmitted infections including HIV. We evaluated the association between community ART coverage and FSW's risk of becoming HIV infected using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounding factors.

RESULTS

One thousand, four hundred and four FSWs contributed 4335 woman-years of follow-up, with 145 acquiring HIV infection (incidence 3.35/100 woman-years). The ART rollout began in 2003. By 2012, an estimated 52% of HIV-positive individuals were receiving treatment. Community ART coverage was inversely associated with HIV incidence (adjusted hazard ratio 0.77; 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.98; P = 0.03), suggesting that each 10% increase in coverage was associated with a 23% reduction in FSWs' risk of HIV acquisition. Community ART coverage had no impact on herpes simplex virus type-2 incidence (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97; 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.20; P = 0.8).

CONCLUSION

Increasing general population ART coverage was associated with lower HIV incidence in FSWs. The association with HIV incidence, but not herpes simplex virus type-2 incidence, suggests that the effect of community ART coverage may be specific to HIV. Interventions such as preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral-containing microbicides have produced disappointing results in HIV prevention trials with FSWs. These results suggest that FSWs' risk of acquiring HIV infection might be reduced through the indirect approach of increasing ART coverage in the community.

Feasible, Efficient and Necessary, without Exception - Working with Sex Workers Interrupts HIV/STI Transmission and Brings Treatment to Many in Need

BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW

High rates of partner change in sex work-whether in professional, 'transactional' or other context-disproportionately drive transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Several countries in Asia have demonstrated that reducing transmission in sex work can reverse established epidemics among sex workers, their clients and the general population. Experience and emerging research from Africa reaffirms unprotected sex work to be a key driver of sexual transmission in different contexts and regardless of stage or classification of HIV epidemic. This validation of the epidemiology behind sexual transmission carries an urgent imperative to realign prevention resources and scale up effective targeted interventions in sex work settings, and, given declining HIV resources, to do so efficiently. Eighteen articles in this issue highlight the importance and feasibility of such interventions under four themes: 1) epidemiology, data needs and modelling of sex work in generalised epidemics; 2) implementation science addressing practical aspects of intervention scale-up; 3) community mobilisation and 4) the treatment cascade for sex workers living with HIV.

CONCLUSION

Decades of empirical evidence, extended by analyses in this collection, argue that protecting sex work is, without exception, feasible and necessary for controlling HIV/STI epidemics. In addition, the disproportionate burden of HIV borne by sex workers calls for facilitated access to ART, care and support. The imperative for Africa is rapid scale-up of targeted prevention and treatment, facilitated by policies and action to improve conditions where sex work takes place. The opportunity is a wealth of accumulated experience working with sex workers in diverse settings, which can be tapped to make up for lost time. Elsewhere, even in countries with strong interventions and services for sex workers, an emerging challenge is to find ways to sustain them in the face of declining global resources.

Performance of rapid HIV testing by lay counselors in the field during the behavioral and biological surveillance survey among female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Botswana

: The study assessed the performance of rapid HIV testing with whole blood using Kehua Bio-engineering HIV (1 + 2) and Uni-Gold HIV test kits by trained and certified lay counselors, offered to female sex workers and men who have sex with men during the 2012 survey fieldwork. The results of rapid HIV testing were compared with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay testing performed in a parallel algorithm at the HIV Reference Laboratory. The sensitivity and the specificity of rapid HIV testing were high for men who have sex with men and female sex workers, with 98.1% and 100%, and 98.2% and 98.5%, respectively. Misclassifications occurred with rapid testing.

Prevalence of HIV, sexually transmitted infections, and risk behaviours among female sex workers in Nairobi, Kenya: results of a respondent driven sampling study

We conducted a respondent driven sampling survey to estimate HIV prevalence and risk behavior among female sex workers (FSWs) in Nairobi, Kenya. Women aged 18 years and older who reported selling sex to a man at least once in the past 3 months were eligible to participate. Consenting FSWs completed a behavioral questionnaire and were tested for HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Adjusted population-based prevalence and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using RDS analysis tool. Factors significantly associated with HIV infection were assessed using log-binomial regression analysis. A total of 596 eligible participants were included in the analysis. Overall HIV prevalence was 29.5 % (95 % CI 24.7-34.9). Median age was 30 years (IQR 25-38 years); median duration of sex work was 12 years (IQR 8-17 years). The most frequent client-seeking venues were bars (76.6 %) and roadsides (29.3 %). The median number of clients per week was seven (IQR 4-18 clients). HIV testing was high with 86.6 % reported ever been tested for HIV and, of these, 63.1 % testing within the past 12 months. Of all women, 59.7 % perceived themselves at 'great risk' for HIV infection. Of HIV-positive women, 51.0 % were aware of their infection. In multivariable analysis, increasing age, inconsistent condom use with paying clients, and use of a male condom as a method of contraception were independently associated with unrecognized HIV infection. Prevalence among STIs was low, ranging from 0.9 % for syphilis, 1.1 % for gonorrhea, and 3.1 % for Chlamydia. The data suggest high prevalence of HIV among FSWs in Nairobi. Targeted and routine HIV and STI combination prevention strategies need to be scaled up or established to meet the needs of this population.

Global epidemiology of HIV among female sex workers: influence of structural determinants

Female sex workers (FSWs) bear a disproportionately large burden of HIV infection worldwide. Despite decades of research and programme activity, the epidemiology of HIV and the role that structural determinants have in mitigating or potentiating HIV epidemics and access to care for FSWs is poorly understood. We reviewed available published data for HIV prevalence and incidence, condom use, and structural determinants among this group. Only 87 (43%) of 204 unique studies reviewed explicitly examined structural determinants of HIV. Most studies were from Asia, with few from areas with a heavy burden of HIV such as sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and eastern Europe. To further explore the potential effect of structural determinants on the course of epidemics, we used a deterministic transmission model to simulate potential HIV infections averted through structural changes in regions with concentrated and generalised epidemics, and high HIV prevalence among FSWs. This modelling suggested that elimination of sexual violence alone could avert 17% of HIV infections in Kenya (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1-31) and 20% in Canada (95% UI 3-39) through its immediate and sustained effect on non-condom use) among FSWs and their clients in the next decade. In Kenya, scaling up of access to antiretroviral therapy among FSWs and their clients to meet WHO eligibility of a CD4 cell count of less than 500 cells per μL could avert 34% (95% UI 25-42) of infections and even modest coverage of sex worker-led outreach could avert 20% (95% UI 8-36) of infections in the next decade. Decriminalisation of sex work would have the greatest effect on the course of HIV epidemics across all settings, averting 33-46% of HIV infections in the next decade. Multipronged structural and community-led interventions are crucial to increase access to prevention and treatment and to promote human rights for FSWs worldwide.

The rise and fall of HIV in high-prevalence countries: a challenge for mathematical modeling

Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but direct evidence for behavior changes that would explain these declines is limited. Here, we look at the structure of current models and argue that the common “fixed risk per sexual contact" assumption favors the conclusion of substantial behavior changes. We argue that this assumption ignores reported non-linearities between exposure and risk. Taking this into account, we propose that some of the decline in HIV transmission may be part of the natural dynamics of the epidemic, and that several factors that have traditionally been ignored by modelers for lack of precise quantitative estimates may well hold the key to understanding epidemiologic trends.

Estimating the impact of reducing violence against female sex workers on HIV epidemics in Kenya and Ukraine: a policy modeling exercise

PROBLEM

Female sex workers (FSWs) worldwide suffer disproportionate burdens of HIV and gender-based violence. Despite evidence linking these threats, little is known about the potential HIV epidemic impact of reducing abuse.

METHOD OF STUDY

The Goals model approximated the impact of reducing violence against FSWs on HIV epidemics in Ukraine and Kenya, measured by reductions in new infections among FSWs and adults. Cumulative infections averted over a 5-year period, in which violence declined was calculated, relative to a status quo with no reduction. Projections held HIV interventions constant at baseline levels; subsequently, scenarios adjusted for planned expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage.

RESULTS

An approximate 25% reduction in incident HIV infections among FSWs was observed when physical or sexual violence was reduced; cumulative infections averted were 21,200 and 4700 in Kenya and Ukraine, respectively. Similar percent reductions were observed assuming ART coverage expansion, with approximately 18,200 and 4400 infections averted among FSWs in Kenya and Ukraine. New infections were also averted in the general population.

CONCLUSION

Reducing violence against FSWs appears to impart significant reductions in new infections among FSWs and in the general adult population in both generalized and concentrated epidemics. Limitations provide direction to improve the precision of future estimates.

Sex work venue and condom use among female sex workers in Senggigi, Indonesia

This paper examines the structural influence of sex work venues on condom use among female sex workers in the Senggigi area of Lombok, Indonesia. A cross-sectional design employing ethnographic observation, structured interviews and hierarchical linear modelling was used to examine condom use among female sex workers who solicited clients at three types of sex work venues: (1) freelance locations, (2) brothels and (3) entertainment places (karaoke bars and massage parlours). The sample consisted of 115 women 'nested' within 16 sex work venues drawn from the three venue types. Rate (39%) of condom use varied across sex work venues. Perceived management style, HIV/AIDS-related policies and risk-reduction services differed by venue, but this variation did not explain differences in condom use. At the individual level, higher condom use was associated with female sex workers having ever been married. At the client level, condoms were more likely to be used with foreign rather than domestic/local Indonesian clients. Low rates of condom use among Indonesian female sex workers during commercial sex suggests the need for increased HIV-prevention efforts that acknowledge sex worker characteristics and relationships with clients that place them at risk. Future research into the effects of social context on HIV risk should also be considered.

Priority interventions to reduce HIV transmission in sex work settings in sub-Saharan Africa and delivery of these services

Introduction

Virtually no African country provides HIV prevention services in sex work settings with an adequate scale and intensity. Uncertainty remains about the optimal set of interventions and mode of delivery.

Methods

We systematically reviewed studies reporting interventions for reducing HIV transmission among female sex workers in sub-Saharan Africa between January 2000 and July 2011. Medline (PubMed) and non-indexed journals were searched for studies with quantitative study outcomes.

Results

We located 26 studies, including seven randomized trials. Evidence supports implementation of the following interventions to reduce unprotected sex among female sex workers: peer-mediated condom promotion, risk-reduction counselling and skills-building for safer sex. One study found that interventions to counter hazardous alcohol-use lowered unprotected sex. Data also show effectiveness of screening for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and syndromic STI treatment, but experience with periodic presumptive treatment is limited. HIV testing and counselling is essential for facilitating sex workers’ access to care and antiretroviral treatment (ART), but testing models for sex workers and indeed for ART access are little studied, as are structural interventions, which create conditions conducive for risk reduction. With the exception of Senegal, persistent criminalization of sex work across Africa reduces sex workers’ control over working conditions and impedes their access to health services. It also obstructs health-service provision and legal protection.

Conclusions

There is sufficient evidence of effectiveness of targeted interventions with female sex workers in Africa to inform delivery of services for this population. With improved planning and political will, services – including peer interventions, condom promotion and STI screening – would act at multiple levels to reduce HIV exposure and transmission efficiency among sex workers. Initiatives are required to enhance access to HIV testing and ART for sex workers, using current CD4 thresholds, or possibly earlier for prevention. Services implemented at sufficient scale and intensity also serve as a platform for subsequent community mobilization and sex worker empowerment, and alleviate a major source of incident infection sustaining even generalized HIV epidemics. Ultimately, structural and legal changes that align public health and human rights are needed to ensure that sex workers on the continent are adequately protected from HIV.

Enumeration of sex workers in the central business district of Nairobi, Kenya

Accurate program planning for populations most at risk for HIV/STI acquisition requires knowledge of the size and location where these populations can best be reached. To obtain this information for sex workers operating at 137 hotspots in the central business district (CBD) in Nairobi, Kenya, we utilized a combined mapping and capture-recapture enumeration exercise. The majority of identified hotspots in this study were bars. Based on this exercise, we estimate that 6,904 male and female sex workers (95% confidence intervals, 6690 and 7118) were working nightly in the Nairobi CBD in April 2009. Wide ranges of captures per spot were obtained, suggesting that relatively few hot spots (18%) contain a relatively high proportion of the area's sex workers (65%). We provide geographic data including relatively short distances from hotspots to our dedicated sex worker outreach program in the CBD (mean<1 km), and clustering of hotspots within a relatively small area. Given the size covered and areas where sex work is likely taking place in Nairobi, the estimate is several times lower than what would be obtained if the entire metropolitan area was enumerated. These results have important practical and policy implications for enhancing HIV/STI prevention efforts.

Impact of high-risk sex and focused interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background

The core-group theory of sexually transmitted infections suggests that targeting prevention to high-risk groups (HRG) could be very effective. We aimed to quantify the contribution of heterosexual HRGs and the potential impact of focused interventions to HIV transmission in the wider community.

Methods

We systematically identified studies published between 1980 and 2011. Studies were included if they used dynamical models of heterosexual HIV transmission, incorporated behavioural heterogeneity in risk, and provided at least one of the following primary estimates in the wider community (a) the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections due to HRGs, or (b) the number per capita or fraction of HIV infections averted, or change in HIV prevalence/incidence due to focused interventions.

Findings

Of 267 selected articles, 22 were included. Four studies measured the PAF, and 20 studies measured intervention impact across 265 scenarios. In low-prevalence epidemics (≤5% HIV prevalence), the estimated impact of sex-worker interventions in the absence of risk compensation included: 6–100% infections averted; 0.9–6.2 HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults; 11–94% and 4–47% relative reduction in prevalence and incidence respectively. In high-prevalence epidemics (>5% HIV prevalence), sex-worker interventions were estimated to avert 6.8–40% of HIV infections and up to 564 HIV infections per 100,000 adults, and reduce HIV prevalence and incidence by 13–27% and 2–14% respectively. In both types of epidemics, greater heterogeneity in HIV risk was associated with a larger impact on the fraction of HIV infections averted and relative reduction in HIV incidence.

Conclusion

Focused interventions, as estimated by mathematical models, have the potential to reduce HIV transmission in the wider community across low- and high-prevalence regions. However, considerable variability exists in estimated impact, suggesting that a targeted approach to HIV prevention should be tailored to local epidemiological context.

HIV type 1 subtype distribution, multiple infections, sexual networks, and partnership histories in female sex workers in Kampala, Uganda

We investigated for the first time the subtype distribution, prevalence of multiple HIV-1 infections, sexual networks, and partnership histories in a cohort of women engaged in high-risk sexual behavior such as female sex workers (FSWs) and women employed in entertainment facilities. Viral RNA was extracted from blood samples collected from 324 HIV-1-positive women; the gp-41 and pol-IN genes were directly sequenced. Women found to have closely related viruses and those with recombinant viruses were further analyzed in the pol-IN gene by clonal sequencing to determine HIV-1 multiple infections. Individual partnership histories were used to provide information on when sex work was undertaken and where. Subtyping in both gp-41 and pol-IN was successfully done in 210/324 (64.8%) women. Subtype distribution in these two genes was 54.3% (n=114) A/A, 2.9% (n=6) C/C, 24.3% (n=51) D/D, 11.9% (n=25) A/D, 4.8% (n=10) D/A, 0.5% (n=1) C/A, 1.0% (n=2) B/A, and 0.5% (n=1) B/D. Sexual networks were identified in six pairs and one triplet of women with closely related subtype A viruses. Partnership histories showed that women having phylogenetically similar viruses had worked in the same localities. Five cases of multiple infections were confirmed: four dual infections and one triple infection. In this first molecular epidemiology study among FSWs in Kampala, subtype A was the predominant subtype. About 9% of a subgroup had multiple infections. Partnership histories and multiple infections observed in this population suggest sexual mixing of the FSWs and their clients confirming their high-risk characteristics.

Burden of HIV among female sex workers in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Female sex workers are a population who are at heightened risk of HIV infection secondary to biological, behavioural, and structural risk factors. However, three decades into the HIV pandemic, understanding of the burden of HIV among these women remains limited. We aimed to assess the burden of HIV in this population compared with that of other women of reproductive age.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Global Health, SCOPUS, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), Web of Science, and POPLine for studies of female sex workers in low-income and middle-income countries published between Jan 1, 2007, and June 25, 2011. Studies of any design that measured the prevalence or incidence of HIV among female sex workers, even if sex workers were not the main focus of the study, were included. Meta-analyses were done with the Mantel-Haenszel method with a random-effects model characterising an odds ratio for the prevalence of HIV among female sex workers compared with that for all women of reproductive age.

FINDINGS

Of 434 selected articles and surveillance reports, 102 were included in the analyses, representing 99,878 female sex workers in 50 countries. The overall HIV prevalence was 11·8% (95% CI 11·6-12·0) with a pooled odds ratio for HIV infection of 13·5 (95% CI 10·0-18·1) with wide intraregional ranges in the pooled HIV prevalence and odds ratios for HIV infection. In 26 countries with medium and high background HIV prevalence, 30·7% (95% CI 30·2-31·3; 8627 of 28,075) of sex workers were HIV-positive and the odds ratio for infection was 11·6 (95% CI 9·1-14·8).

INTERPRETATION

Although data characterising HIV risk among female sex workers is scarce, the burden of disease is disproportionately high. These data suggest an urgent need to scale up access to quality HIV prevention programmes. Considerations of the legal and policy environments in which sex workers operate and actions to address the important role of stigma, discrimination, and violence targeting female sex workers is needed.

FUNDING

The World Bank, UN Population Fund.

Periodic presumptive treatment of curable sexually transmitted infections among sex workers: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Unprotected sex work remains a major driver of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) epidemics in many countries. STI treatment can lower disease burden, complications and prevalence of HIV cofactors. Periodic presumptive treatment (PPT) has been used with sex workers to reduce their high burden of largely asymptomatic STIs. The objective of this review is to assess benefits and harms of PPT among female sex workers.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE for studies related to sex work and STIs during 1990-2010, extracted data from eligible studies in duplicate and conducted meta-analysis by study design using random effects models.

RESULTS

Two thousand, three hundred and fifteen articles were screened, 18 studies met inclusion criteria and 14 were included in meta-analyses. One published randomized controlled trial (RCT) reported significant reductions of gonorrhoea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) [rate ratio (RR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31-0.68] and chlamydia (Chlamydia trachomatis) (RR 0.38, 95%CI 0.26-0.57), but no effect on serologic syphilis (RR 1.02, 95%CI 0.54-1.95). Similar results were seen for N. gonorrhoeae and C. trachomatis in pooled analyses, including data from one unpublished RCT and across study designs, and correlated with initial prevalence (R(2) = 0.155). One observational study reported genital ulcer disease (GUD) declines in sex workers, and two reported impact among male client populations for N. gonorrhoeae [odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.94], C. trachomatis (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.71) and GUD (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.11-0.42). No studies reported evidence of risk compensation or antibiotic resistance.

CONCLUSION

PPT can reduce prevalence of gonorrhoea, chlamydia and ulcerative STIs among sex workers in whom prevalence is high. Sustained STI reductions can be achieved when PPT is implemented together with peer interventions and condom promotion. Additional benefits may include impact on STI and HIV transmission at population level.

Bacterial vaginosis, HIV serostatus and T-cell subset distribution in a cohort of East African commercial sex workers: retrospective analysis

OBJECTIVE

Although bacterial vaginosis is a known correlate of HIV infection, no previous studies have investigated whether women defined as HIV-exposed seronegative (HESN) are less likely to have bacterial vaginosis. Little is known about the effects of bacterial vaginosis on systemic immune activation associated with HIV+ serostatus.

DESIGN

Cohort-based retrospective analysis of bacterial vaginosis in relation to HESN status, HIV+ serostatus and peripheral T-helper cells, with cross-sectional analysis of bacterial vaginosis in relation to peripheral T-regulatory cells (Tregs).

METHODS

Bacterial vaginosis diagnosis by Gram stain and determination of systemic CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-helper cell frequency by flow cytometry for 3504 vaginal samples from 988 commercial sex workers over 4 years. Treg phenotyping by FoxP3 staining and multiparameter flow cytometry in peripheral blood of 97 women at a single time-point.

RESULTS

No differences in bacterial vaginosis diagnosis were observed between HESN and other HIV-negative (HIV-N) controls; however, HIV+ women were more likely to be diagnosed with bacterial vaginosis compared to all HIV-negative women (HESN/HIV-N combined). HIV+ women with bacterial vaginosis had significantly higher CD4(+)/CD8(+) T-helper cell counts and a lower CD4/CD8 ratio, as well as fewer Tregs as a proportion of total T-helper cells, compared to bacterial vaginosis-negative women. The number of bacterial vaginosis diagnoses in this cohort has decreased significantly over time.

CONCLUSION

Bacterial vaginosis is associated with HIV serostatus and shifts in distribution of T-cell subsets. A concomitant reduction in bacterial vaginosis and HIV infections over time suggests that the elucidation of bacterial vaginosis-HIV interactions will be critical to further understanding of HIV pathogenesis and prevention in this high-risk group.

High burden of prevalent and recently acquired HIV among female sex workers and female HIV voluntary testing center clients in Kigali, Rwanda

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and risk factors in population-based samples of female sex workers (FSW) and female voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) clients in Rwanda.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 800 FSW and 1,250 female VCT clients in Rwanda, which included interviewing and testing for HIV-1/2, HSV-2 and pregnancy, and BED-CEIA and Avidity Index (AI) to identify recent infections among HIV-infected women.

Results

Prevalence of HIV-1, HSV-2, and pregnancy were 24% (95% CI: 21.0–27.0), 59.8% (56.4–63.2), and 7.6% (5.8–9.5) among FSW, and 12.8% (10.9–14.6), 43.2% (40.4–46.0), and 11.4% (9.7–13.3) among VCT clients, respectively. Thirty-five percent of FSW and 25% of VCT clients had never been HIV tested. Per national guidelines, 33% of newly HIV-diagnosed FSW and 36% of VCT clients were already eligible for ART based on CD4<350 cells/µl. Condom use at last sex was higher among FSW (74%) than VCT clients (12%). In age and district of residence-adjusted models, HIV-1 seropositivity was associated with HSV-2 co-infection; recent treatment for sexually transmitted infection (STI); genital symptoms; forced sex; imprisonment; widowhood; and alcohol consumption. Eleven percent of FSW and 12% of VCT clients had recently acquired HIV-1 per BED-CEIA and AI. HSV-2 infection and recent STI treatment were associated with recent HIV infection in both groups, and being married and vaginal cleansing were associated with recent infection before last sex among VCT clients.

Conclusions

This population-based survey reveals a high HIV prevalence and incidence among FSW and female VCT clients in Kigali, the scale of which is masked by the low general-population HIV prevalence in Rwanda. HIV/STI and family planning services should be strengthened.

Sexual and physical violence against female sex workers in Kenya: a qualitative enquiry

Few studies in Africa provide detailed descriptions of the vulnerabilities of female sex workers (FSW) to sexual and physical violence, and how this impacts on their HIV risk. This qualitative study documents FSW's experiences of violence in Mombasa and Naivasha, Kenya. Eighty-one FSW who obtained clients from the streets, transportation depots, taverns, discos and residential areas were recruited through local sex workers trained as peer counsellors to participate in eight focus-group discussions. Analysis showed the pervasiveness of sexual and physical violence among FSW, commonly triggered by negotiation around condoms and payment. Pressing financial needs of FSW, gender-power differentials, illegality of trading in sex and cultural subscriptions to men's entitlement for sex sans money underscore much of this violence. Sex workers with more experience had developed skills to avoid threats of violence by identifying potentially violent clients, finding safer working areas and minimising conflict with the police. Addressing violence and concomitant HIV risks and vulnerabilities faced by FSW should be included in Kenya's national HIV/AIDS strategic plan. This study indicates the need for multilevel interventions, including legal reforms so that laws governing sex work promote the health and human rights of sex workers in Kenya.

Quantifying sexual exposure to HIV within an HIV-serodiscordant relationship: development of an algorithm

BACKGROUND

The risk of acquiring HIV from a single sexual contact varies enormously reflecting biological and behavioural characteristics of both infected and uninfected partners. Accurate information on HIV transmission risk is required to construct evidence-based risk reduction practices for individuals, to direct the provision of prevention strategies at the population level, and enable the definition, quantification and comparison of true exposure in individuals termed 'exposed uninfected' within clinical trials.

METHODS

Following a systematic review of current literature on HIV transmission estimates, an HIV risk score was developed, incorporating weighted risk factors into a Bernoulli mathematical model, allowing quantification of overall risk of HIV acquisition within HIV-serodiscordant partnerships.

RESULTS

The HIV risk score enumerates the relative risk of HIV acquisition from HIV-positive partners incorporating the type and frequency of specific sex acts, the index case HIV plasma viral load and stage of disease, and the presence of genital ulcer disease in either partner and pregnancy, HSV-2 seropositivity, and circumcision status (men only) in the HIV-negative partner.

CONCLUSION

Key determinants of HIV exposure risk can be incorporated into a mathematical model in order to quantify individual relative risks of HIV acquisition. Such a model can facilitate comparisons within clinical trials of exposed uninfected individuals and facilitate interventions to reduce HIV transmission.

Determinants of condom use among female sex workers in Kenya: a case-crossover analysis

BACKGROUND

We evaluated predictors of consistent condom use among female sex workers (FSWs), a core group for controlling the spread of HIV.

METHODS

In an analysis of data collected in 2004-2005 from 140 Kenyan FSWs who completed questionnaires administered during a baseline study visit and three bimonthly follow-up visits, we used a case-crossover design to identify predictors of consistent condom use during all coital acts in the preceding 2 weeks, overall and by partner type.

RESULTS

Participants (n=140) completed the baseline visit and 390 bimonthly follow-up visits. Alcohol use during sex was negatively associated with consistent condom use with helping partners (defined as regular sex partners to whom the woman could go for help or support if needed) (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-6.5) but not associated with condom use with other partners. Coital frequency was associated with condom use with other partners only. Women who reported 1-5 (AOR 11.0, 95% CI 4.3-28.3) or 6-9 recent coital acts (AOR 3.8, 95% CI 1.7-8.8) with other partners were more likely to report consistent condom use with those partners than were women who reported ≥10 acts. Having a recent partner delay payment was inversely associated with consistent condom use with helping, other, or all partners.

CONCLUSIONS

Correlates of consistent condom use differed by partner type. By using a case-crossover design, we were able to identify potentially modifiable factors associated with consistent condom use by FSWs who used condoms consistently with a given partner type during some periods but not others.

HIV prevention through sport: the case of the Mathare Youth Sport Association in Kenya

Sport has become a popular tool for HIV prevention, based on claims that it can foster life skills that are necessary to translate knowledge, attitudes and behavioural intentions into actual behaviour. Empirical evidence of the effectiveness of sport-based HIV prevention programmes is, however, sorely lacking. We therefore conducted a cross-sectional survey assessing sexual behaviour and the determinants thereof among 454 youth of the Mathare Youth Sport Association (MYSA) in Kenya and a control group of 318 non-MYSA members. Multiple (ordinal) logistic regression models were applied to measure the association between MYSA membership and attitudes, subjective norms and self-efficacy related to condom use as well as sexual experience, age at sexual debut, condom use, history of concurrent relationships and number of partners in the last year. MYSA members were more likely to use condoms during the first sex act (odds ratio (OR)=2.10; 95% CI: 1.10-3.99). Consistent condom use with the current/last partner was 23.2% (36/155) among MYSA members vs. 17.2% (17/99) among the control group. Even after adjusting for media exposure - a factor associated with both MYSA membership and higher frequency of condom use - MYSA members were still found to use condoms more frequently with their current/last partner (adjusted OR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.68). Nevertheless, levels of condom use remain disturbingly low. More rigorous evaluations of sport programmes for HIV prevention are needed. When possible, programmes should be preceded by baseline assessments, trends in risk behaviour of the intervention group should be compared with those of a control group, and protocols for data collection and analysis should include measuring of and adjusting for potentially confounding factors.

The origins of a research community in the Majengo Observational Cohort Study, Nairobi, Kenya

Background

Since the 1980s the Majengo Observational Cohort Study (MOCS) has examined sexually transmitted infections, in particular HIV/AIDS, in a cohort of sex workers in Majengo, an impoverished urban village in Nairobi, Kenya. The MOCS investigators have faced criticism since the women have remained in the sex trade for the duration of their participation in the study, prompting concerns about exploitation. Yet despite these concerns, the cohort has survived for almost 30 years.

Methods

In this retrospective qualitative case study, we examine the community engagement practices of the MOCS and explore the factors that account for its durability.

Results

Women in sex work in Kenya were a highly stigmatized and disfranchised community. As a result, there was no natural 'community' of sex workers either in Nairobi or in the Majengo village. The Majengo clinic aimed to reduce the barriers to health care the women experienced at the STC clinic by bringing the services closer to them and by providing a non-discriminatory environment. The women acknowledged the fact they had hoped their participation in the MOCS would have helped them find a path out of the sex trade. But our findings also add another dimension to this debate, since every cohort member we interviewed expressed her gratitude for the deep impact the MOCS has had on her life, much of it beyond the improved health status made possible by access to quality healthcare services. Participation in the MOCS has improved and enriched their lives. The CE activities have played a central role in creating a community that did not exist independently of the MOCS.

Conclusions

Our case study identified 3 distinct phases of community engagement in the MOCS: (1) reaching out: mobilization, dialogue and education; (2) foundations of trust through relationships of care; and (3) leveraging existing social capital to form a cohort community. The findings demonstrate the importance of some of the less obvious benefits of participation in research, namely the evolving experience of community and the accompanying gains in personal security and solidarity that have kept the women in the cohort, some for 20 years or more.

'They bring AIDS to us and say we give it to them': Socio-structural context of female sex workers' vulnerability to HIV infection in Ibadan, Nigeria

The aim of the study was to examine and describe the individual and structural-environmental factors that shape the vulnerability of brothel-based female sex workers (FSWs) in Ibadan, southwest Nigeria to HIV infection. A descriptive qualitative research design was utilised to elicit data, using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, from 60 randomly selected participants in four brothels. A thematic analysis of data was undertaken following transcription and validation of interviews. Five themes emerged from the data: (i) flawed knowledge and fatalistic attitudes; (ii) the psychosocial and economic context of sex work; (iii) religious beliefs, stigma and risk taking; (iv) barriers to HIV testing; and (v) legal and policy constraints to sex work. We describe the complex interaction between these themes and how they combine to increase the risk of HIV infection among FSWs. The impact of previous interventions to reduce the risk of HIV infection among FSWs has been limited by personal and structural factors; hence we recommend that new strategies that recognise the practical constraints to HIV prevention among FSWs are urgently needed to make the environment of commercial work safer for FSWs, their clients, and by extension the general population.

Multiplex detection of bacteria associated with normal microbiota and with bacterial vaginosis in vaginal swabs by use of oligonucleotide-coupled fluorescent microspheres

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a recurrent condition that is associated with a range of negative outcomes, including the acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus and other sexually transmitted diseases, preterm births, and pelvic inflammatory disease. In contrast to the Lactobacillus-dominated normal vaginal microbiota, BV is characterized by a lack of lactobacilli and an abundance of anaerobic and gram-negative organisms, including Gardnerella vaginalis and Atopobium vaginae. To date, the laboratory diagnosis of BV has relied upon the fulfillment of criteria determined by microscopic observation of Gram-stained vaginal swabs. We describe a molecular-based method for the easy determination of the species profile within the vaginal microbiota based on the amplification of the chaperonin-60 genes of all bacteria present in the swab and hybridization of the amplicon to species-specific oligonucleotide-coupled fluorescent beads that are identified by flow cytometry with a Luminex instrument. We designed a nineplex Luminex array for characterization of the vaginal microbiota and applied it to the analysis of vaginal swabs from individuals from Africa and North America. Using the presence of A. vaginae or G. vaginalis, or both, as the defining criterion for BV, we found that the method was highly specific and sensitive for the diagnosis of BV using microscopy as a gold standard.

Pyrosequencing of the chaperonin-60 universal target as a tool for determining microbial community composition

We compared dideoxy sequencing of cloned chaperonin-60 universal target (cpn60 UT) amplicons to pyrosequencing of amplicons derived from vaginal microbial communities. In samples pooled from a number of individuals, the pyrosequencing method produced a data set that included virtually all of the sequences that were found within the clone library and revealed an additional level of taxonomic richness. However, the relative abundances of the sequences were different in the two datasets. These observations were expanded and confirmed by the analysis of paired clone library and pyrosequencing datasets from vaginal swabs taken from four individuals. Both for individuals with a normal vaginal microbiota and for those with bacterial vaginosis, the pyrosequencing method revealed a large number of low-abundance taxa that were missed by the clone library approach. In addition, we showed that the pyrosequencing method generates a reproducible profile of microbial community structure in replicate amplifications from the same community. We also compared the taxonomic composition of a vaginal microbial community determined by pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA amplicons to that obtained using cpn60 universal primers. We found that the profiles generated by the two molecular targets were highly similar, with slight differences in the proportional representation of the taxa detected. However, the number of operational taxonomic units was significantly higher in the cpn60 data set, suggesting that the protein-encoding gene provides improved species resolution over the 16S rRNA target. These observations demonstrate that pyrosequencing of cpn60 UT amplicons provides a robust, reliable method for deep sequencing of microbial communities.

Heterosexual risk of HIV-1 infection per sexual act: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies of the risk of HIV-1 transmission per heterosexual contact. 43 publications comprising 25 different study populations were identified. Pooled female-to-male (0.04% per act [95% CI 0.01-0.14]) and male-to-female (0.08% per act [95% CI 0.06-0.11]) transmission estimates in high-income countries indicated a low risk of infection in the absence of antiretrovirals. Low-income country female-to-male (0.38% per act [95% CI 0.13-1.10]) and male-to-female (0.30% per act [95% CI 0.14-0.63]) estimates in the absence of commercial sex exposure (CSE) were higher. In meta-regression analysis, the infectivity across estimates in the absence of CSE was significantly associated with sex, setting, the interaction between setting and sex, and antenatal HIV prevalence. The pooled receptive anal intercourse estimate was much higher (1.7% per act [95% CI 0.3-8.9]). Estimates for the early and late phases of HIV infection were 9.2 (95% CI 4.5-18.8) and 7.3 (95% CI 4.5-11.9) times larger, respectively, than for the asymptomatic phase. After adjusting for CSE, presence or history of genital ulcers in either couple member increased per-act infectivity 5.3 (95% CI 1.4-19.5) times versus no sexually transmitted infection. Study estimates among non-circumcised men were at least twice those among circumcised men. Low-income country estimates were more heterogeneous than high-income country estimates, which indicates poorer study quality, greater heterogeneity of risk factors, or under-reporting of high-risk behaviour. Efforts are needed to better understand these differences and to quantify infectivity in low-income countries.

Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence has recently declined in several African countries, and prior to this the risk of HIV acquisition per unprotected sex contact also declined in Kenyan sex workers. We hypothesized that heterogeneity in HIV host susceptibility might underpin both of these observations.

METHODS

A compartmental mathematical model was used to explore the potential impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection on epidemic behavior, in the absence of other causative mechanisms.

RESULTS

Studies indicated that a substantial heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection may lead to an epidemic that peaks and then declines due to a depletion of the most susceptible individuals, even without changes in sexual behavior. This effect was most notable in high-risk groups such as female sex workers and was consistent with empirical data.

DISCUSSION

Declines in HIV prevalence may have other causes in addition to behavior change, including heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility. There is a need to further study this heterogeneity and its correlates, particularly as it confounds the ability to attribute HIV epidemic shifts to specific interventions, including behavior change.

Rethinking the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies of cumulative HIV incidence suggest that cofactors such as genital ulcer disease, HIV disease stage, and male circumcision influence HIV transmission; however, the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 is commonly cited as a fixed value (approximately 0.001, or one transmission per 1000 contacts). We sought to estimate transmission cofactor effects on the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 and to quantify the extent to which study methods have affected infectivity estimates. We undertook a systematic search (up to April 27, 2008) of PubMed, Web of Science, and relevant bibliographies to identify articles estimating the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1. We used meta-regression and stratified random-effects meta-analysis to assess differences in infectivity associated with cofactors and study methods. Infectivity estimates were very heterogeneous, ranging from zero transmissions after more than 100 penile-vaginal contacts in some serodiscordant couples to one transmission for every 3.1 episodes of heterosexual anal intercourse. Estimates were only weakly associated with study methods. Infectivity differences, expressed as number of transmissions per 1000 contacts, were 8.1 (95 % CI 0.4-15.8) when comparing uncircumcised to circumcised susceptible men, 6.0 (3.3-8.8) comparing susceptible individuals with and without genital ulcer disease, 1.9 (0.9-2.8) comparing late-stage to mid-stage index cases, and 2.5 (0.2-4.9) comparing early-stage to mid-stage index cases. A single value for the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 fails to reflect the variation associated with important cofactors. The commonly cited value of 0.001 was estimated among stable couples with low prevalences of high-risk cofactors, and represents a lower bound. Cofactor effects are important to include in epidemic models, policy considerations, and prevention messages.

Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level.

METHODS

We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status.

FINDINGS

Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use.

INTERPRETATION

Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council.

Genetic studies of African populations: an overview on disease susceptibility and response to vaccines and therapeutics

Africa is the ultimate source of modern humans and as such harbors more genetic variation than any other continent. For this reason, studies of the patterns of genetic variation in African populations are crucial to understanding how genes affect phenotypic variation, including disease predisposition. In addition, the patterns of extant genetic variation in Africa are important for understanding how genetic variation affects infectious diseases that are a major problem in Africa, such as malaria, tuberculosis, schistosomiasis, and HIV/AIDS. Therefore, elucidating the role that genetic susceptibility to infectious diseases plays is critical to improving the health of people in Africa. It is also of note that recent and ongoing social and cultural changes in sub-Saharan Africa have increased the prevalence of non-communicable diseases that will also require genetic analyses to improve disease prevention and treatment. In this review we give special attention to many of the past and ongoing studies, emphasizing those in Sub-Saharan Africans that address the role of genetic variation in human disease.