Changes in Male Circumcision Prevalence and Risk Compensation in the Kisumu, Kenya Population, 2008-2013

Estimates of the prevalence of male circumcision in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010-2023-A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision (MC) is a key part of the package of interventions to prevent HIV, the biggest health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the male circumcision prevalence and to evaluate the progress towards meeting WHO targets in sub-Saharan Africa during the period 2010-2023.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published during the period 2010-2023. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane CENTRAL, Google Scholar, WHO and the Demographic and Health Survey for reports on MC prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. MC prevalence was synthesized using inverse-variance heterogeneity models, heterogeneity using I2 statistics and publication bias using funnel plots.

RESULTS

A total of 53 studies were included. The overall prevalence during the study period was 45.9% (95% CI 32.3-59.8), with a higher MC prevalence in Eastern (69.9%, 95%CI 49.9-86.8) compared to Southern African (33.3%, 95%CI 21.7-46.2). The overall prevalence was higher in urban (45.3%, 95%CI 27.7-63.4) compared to rural settings (42.6%, 95% 26.5-59.5). Male circumcision prevalence increased from 40.2% (95% CI 25.0-56.3) during 2010-2015 to 56.2% (95% CI 31.5-79.5) during 2016-2023. Three countries exceeded 80% MC coverage, namely, Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the current MC prevalence is below 50%, with higher prevalence in Eastern African countries and substantially lower prevalence in Southern Africa. Most of the priority countries need to do more to scale up medical male circumcision programs.

VMMC Programmatic Successes and Challenges: Western Kenya Case Study

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The Nyanza region of western Kenya is lauded for impressive coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and remains the bedrock of the VMMC program in Kenya. We conducted literature review on programmatic successes and challenges of implementing VMMC program in the region.

RECENT FINDINGS

Responsive stakeholders' engagement, robust policy environment, effective technical working groups, prompt capacity building of health facilities, government support, flexible implementation strategies, and sustained donor funding contributed to the successes of the program that saw circumcision prevalence in Nyanza reach between 75.6 and 85.3% among 15-29-year-olds by 2019. However, the lack of support for early infant circumcision, inadequate domestic financing, and slow pace of service integration into government health facilities continue to undermine the progress towards sustainability. While local ownership of the VMMC program has been demonstrated through its inclusion in county annual health workplans and progressive integration into routine health care, continued dependence on declining external funding threatens its sustainability. Furthermore, Kenya is experiencing a youth bulge with a projected high demand for VMMC which calls for increased resource inputs into the program. Strategies are therefore needed to increase domestic resource inflows into VMMC.

Understanding the Evolving Role of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as a Public Health Strategy in Eastern and Southern Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

Association between medical male circumcision and HIV risk compensation among heterosexual men: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Medical male circumcision (MMC) reduces HIV infection among heterosexual men. There are concerns MMC might prompt higher-risk sexual behaviours because of lower self-perceived risk of HIV infection. We reviewed the published literature to examine associations between MMC and both condom use and number of sex partners among heterosexual men.

Methods

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for studies published before Nov 15, 2020. Interventional and observational studies were included if they contained original quantitative data describing the association between MMC and condom use or number of sex partners among heterosexual men. We excluded data from men whose circumcisions were ritual or religious and data from men who have sex with men. We extracted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the associations between MMC and condomless sex and MMC and multiple sex partners directly from the publications if available, selecting adjusted ORs when provided; when necessary, we calculated ORs and 95% CIs using original study data provided in the publication. We used the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model to calculate pooled ORs and 95% CIs.

Findings

Our search yielded 3035 results, of which 471 were duplicates and 2537 did not meet the inclusion criteria. From the remaining 27 eligible studies, we identified 99 292 men from 31 independent population samples. 24 studies were done in Africa. We found no statistically significant associations between MMC and condomless sex (OR 0·91, 95% CI 0·80–1·05; k=30; I²=88·7%) or multiple sex partners (1·02, 0·88–1·18; k=27; I²=90·1%). No associations between MMC and condomless sex or multiple sexual partners were found in any subgroup analyses by study design, income of country, age, recruitment setting, circumcision assessment, circumcision prevalence, and risk of publication bias.

Interpretation

The promotion of circumcision as an HIV preventive measure does not appear to increase higher-risk sexual behaviours in heterosexual men. Ongoing sexual health education should be maintained as a vital component of effective MMC programmes.

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

Sexual risk compensation following voluntary medical male circumcision: Results from a prospective cohort study amongst human immunodeficiency virus-negative adult men in Botswana

Background

Circumcised men may increase sexual risk-taking following voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) because of decreased perceptions of risk, which may negate the beneficial impact of VMMC in preventing new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections.

Objectives

We evaluated changes in sexual behaviour following VMMC.

Method

We conducted a prospective cohort study amongst sexually active, HIV-negative adult men undergoing VMMC in Gaborone, Botswana, during 2013–2015. Risky sexual behaviour, defined as the number of sexual partners in the previous month and ≥ 1 concurrent sexual partnerships during the previous 3 months, was assessed at baseline (prior to VMMC) and 3 months post-VMMC. Change over time was assessed by using inverse probability weighted linear and conditional logistic regression models.

Results

We enrolled 523 men; 509 (97%) provided sexual behaviour information at baseline. At 3 months post-VMMC, 368 (72%) completed the follow-up questionnaire. At baseline, the mean (95% confidence interval) number of sexual partners was 1.60 (1.48, 1.65), and 111 (31% of 353 with data) men reported engaging in concurrent partnerships. At 3 months post-VMMC, 70 (23% of 311 with data) reported fewer partners and 19% had more partners. Amongst 111 men with a concurrent partnership at baseline, 52% reported none post-VMMC. Amongst the 242 (69%) without a concurrent partnership at baseline, 19% reported initiating one post-VMMC. After adjustment for loss to follow-up, risky sexual behaviour post-VMMC (measured as mean changes in a number of partners and proportion engaging in concurrency) was similar to baseline levels.

Conclusion

We found no evidence of sexual risk compensation in the 3 months following VMMC.

Service delivery interventions to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an essential component of combination HIV prevention services, particularly in priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa. As VMMC programs seek to maximize impact and efficiency, and to support World Health Organization guidance, specific uptake-enhancing strategies are critical to identify.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate the impact of service delivery interventions (e.g., facility layout, service co-location, mobile outreach) on VMMC uptake among adolescent and adult men. For the main effectiveness review, we searched for publications or conference abstracts that measured VMMC uptake or uptake of HIV testing or risk reduction counselling within VMMC services. We synthesized data by coding categories and outcomes. We also reviewed studies assessing acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.

RESULTS

Four randomized controlled trials and five observational studies were included in the effectiveness review. Studies took place in South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. They assessed a range of service delivery innovations, including community-, school-, and facility-based interventions. Overall, interventions increased VMMC uptake; some successfully improved uptake among age-specific subpopulations, but urban-rural stratification showed no clear trends. Interventions that increased adult men's uptake included mobile services (compared to static facilities), home-based testing with active referral follow-up, and facility-based HIV testing with enhanced comprehensive sexual education. Six acceptability studies suggested interventions were generally perceived to help men choose to get circumcised. Eleven cost studies suggested interventions create economies-of-scale and efficiencies. Three studies suggested such interventions were feasible, improving facility preparedness, service quality and quantity, and efficiencies.

CONCLUSIONS

Innovative changes in male-centered VMMC services can improve adult men's and adolescent boys' VMMC uptake. Limited evidence on interventions that enhance access and acceptability show promising results, but evidence gaps persist due to inconsistent intervention definition and delivery, due in part to contextual relevance and limited age disaggregation.

Females' Peer Influence and Support for Adolescent Males Receiving Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Services

Background

While female involvement in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been studied among adults, little is known about the influence of adolescent females on their male counterparts. This study explored adolescent females’ involvement in VMMC decision making and the postoperative wound healing process in South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

Methods

Across 3 countries, 12 focus group discussions were conducted with a total of 90 adolescent females (aged 16–19 years). Individual in-depth interviews were conducted 6–10 weeks post-VMMC with 92 adolescent males (aged 10–19 years). Transcribed and translated qualitative data were coded into categories and subcategories by 2 independent coders.

Results

Adolescent female participants reported being supportive of male peers’ decisions to seek VMMC, with the caveat that some thought VMMC gives males a chance to be promiscuous. Regardless, females from all countries expressed preference for circumcised over uncircumcised sexual partners. Adolescent females believed VMMC to be beneficial for the sexual health of both partners, viewed males with a circumcised penis as more attractive than uncircumcised males, used their romantic relationships with males or the potential for sex as leveraging points to convince males to become circumcised, and demonstrated supportive attitudes in the wound-healing period. Interviews with males confirmed that encouragement from females was a motivating factor in seeking VMMC.

Conclusions

Adolescent female participants played a role in convincing young males to seek VMMC and remained supportive of the decision postprocedure. Programs aiming to increase uptake of VMMC and other health-related initiatives for adolescent males should consider the perspective and influence of adolescent females.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for prevention of heterosexual transmission of HIV and risk compensation in adult males in Soweto: Findings from a programmatic setting

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials have clearly shown a reduction in HIV acquisition through voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). However, data assessing risk compensation under programmatic conditions is limited.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort of HIV seronegative males aged 18-40 years receiving VMMC between November 2012 and July 2014. HIV serostatus was determined pre and post VMMC. Risk compensation was defined as a decrease in condom use at last sex act and/or an increase in concurrent sexual relationships, both measured twelve months post-circumcision.

RESULTS

A total of 233 males were enrolled and underwent voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for prevention against HIV. There was no evidence of risk compensation post-circumcision as defined in this study. Significant increases in proportion of participants in the 18-24 years age group who knew the HIV status of their sexual partner (39% to 56%, p = 0.0019), self-reported condom use at last sex act (21% to 34%, p = 0.0106) and those reporting vaginal sexual intercourse in the past 12 months (67% to 79%, p-value = <0.0001) were found. In both 18-24 and 25-40 years age groups, there was a significant increase in perception of being at risk of contracting HIV (70% to 84%, p-value = <0.0001).

CONCLUSION

No significant risk compensation was observed in this study on comparing pre-and post-circumcision behaviour. An increase in proportion of participants in the 18-24 years age group who had vaginal intercourse in the first 12 months post-circumcision as a possibility of risk compensation was minimal and negated by an increase in proportion of those reporting using a condom at the last sex act, increase in knowledge of partner's HIV status and lack of increase in alcohol post-circumcision.

Does Incident Circumcision Lead to Risk Compensation? Evidence From a Population Cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Voluntary medical male circumcision reduces men's risk of HIV acquisition and may thus increase HIV risk-related sexual behaviors through risk compensation. We analyze longitudinal data from one of Africa's largest population cohorts using fixed-effects panel estimation to measure the effect of incident circumcision on sexual behaviors.

SETTING

KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

An open population cohort of men was followed from 2009 to 2015. Men self-reported their circumcision status and sexual behavior annually. We used linear regression models with individual-level fixed effects to measure the effect of incident circumcision on recent sex (past 12 months) and sexual behaviors that increase HIV risk (not using a condom at last sex, never using condoms with the most recent sexual partner, concurrent sexual partners at present, and multiple sexual partners in the past 12 months). We controlled for potential time-varying confounders: calendar year, age, education, and sexual debut.

RESULTS

The 5127 men in the cohort had a median age of 18 years (interquartile range 16-24) at cohort entry. Over the study period, almost 1 in 5 of these men (19.4%) became newly circumcised. Incident circumcision affected neither recent sex [percentage point (PP) change 0.0, 95% confidence interval: -1.2 to 1.3] nor sexual behaviors that increase HIV risk (PP -1.6, 95% confidence interval: -4.5 to 1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

The data from this study strongly reject the hypothesis that circumcision affects sexual risk-taking. Risk compensation should not serve as an argument against increased and accelerated scale-up of circumcision in this and similar communities in South Africa.

'Why would you promote something that is less percent safer than a condom?': Perspectives on partially effective HIV prevention technologies among key populations in South Africa

New biomedical prevention technologies (NPTs) for HIV, including oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis, and vaginal and rectal microbicides and HIV vaccines in development, may contribute substantially to controlling the HIV epidemic. However, their effectiveness is contingent on product acceptability and adherence. We explored perceptions and understanding of partially effective NPTs with key populations in South African townships. From October 2013 to February 2014, we conducted six focus groups and 18 individual interviews with Xhosa-speaking adolescents (n = 14), adult men who have sex with men (MSM) (n = 15), and adult heterosexual men (n = 9) and women (n = 10), and eight key informant (KI) interviews with healthcare workers. Interviews/focus groups were transcribed and reviewed using a thematic approach and framework analysis. Overall, participants and KIs indicated scepticism about NPTs that were not 100% efficacious. Some participants equated not being 100% effective with not being completely safe, and thus not appropriate for dissemination. KIs expressed concerns that promoting partially effective NPTs would encourage substitution of a more effective with a less effective method or encourage risk compensation. Educational and social marketing interventions that address the benefits and appropriate use of partially effective NPTs, including education and support tailored for frontline service providers, are needed to prepare for successful NPT implementation in South Africa.

Methods for sampling geographically mobile female traders in an East African market setting

Background

The role of migration in the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa is well-documented. Yet migration and HIV research have often focused on HIV risks to male migrants and their partners, or migrants overall, often failing to measure the risks to women via their direct involvement in migration. Inconsistent measures of mobility, gender biases in those measures, and limited data sources for sex-specific population-based estimates of mobility have contributed to a paucity of research on the HIV prevention and care needs of migrant and highly mobile women. This study addresses an urgent need for novel methods for developing probability-based, systematic samples of highly mobile women, focusing on a population of female traders operating out of one of the largest open air markets in East Africa. Our method involves three stages: 1.) identification and mapping of all market stall locations using Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates; 2.) using female market vendor stall GPS coordinates to build the sampling frame using replicates; and 3.) using maps and GPS data for recruitment of study participants.

Results

The location of 6,390 vendor stalls were mapped using GPS. Of these, 4,064 stalls occupied by women (63.6%) were used to draw four replicates of 128 stalls each, and a fifth replicate of 15 pre-selected random alternates for a total of 527 stalls assigned to one of five replicates. Staff visited 323 stalls from the first three replicates and from these successfully recruited 306 female vendors into the study for a participation rate of 94.7%. Mobilization strategies and involving traders association representatives in participant recruitment were critical to the study’s success.

Conclusion

The study’s high participation rate suggests that this geospatial sampling method holds promise for development of probability-based samples in other settings that serve as transport hubs for highly mobile populations.

HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends

Background

HIV prevalence differs substantially between South Africa’s provinces, but the factors accounting for this difference are poorly understood.

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and incidence trends by province, and to identify the epidemiological factors that account for most of the variation between provinces.

Methods

A mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic was applied to each of the nine provinces, allowing for provincial differences in demography, sexual behaviour, male circumcision, interventions and epidemic timing. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from antenatal and household surveys using a Bayesian approach. Parameters estimated for each province were substituted into the national model to assess sensitivity to provincial variations.

Results

HIV incidence in 15–49-year-olds peaked between 1997 and 2003 and has since declined steadily. By mid-2013, HIV prevalence in 15–49-year-olds varied between 9.4% (95% CI: 8.5%–10.2%) in Western Cape and 26.8% (95% CI: 25.8%–27.6%) in KwaZulu-Natal. When standardising parameters across provinces, this prevalence was sensitive to provincial differences in the prevalence of male circumcision (range 12.3%–21.4%) and the level of non-marital sexual activity (range 9.5%–24.1%), but not to provincial differences in condom use (range 17.7%–21.2%), sexual mixing (range 15.9%–19.2%), marriage (range 18.2%–19.4%) or assumed HIV prevalence in 1985 (range 17.0%–19.1%).

Conclusion

The provinces of South Africa differ in the timing and magnitude of their HIV epidemics. Most of the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence between South Africa’s provinces is attributable to differences in the prevalence of male circumcision and the frequency of non-marital sexual activity.

Evidence that promotion of male circumcision did not lead to sexual risk compensation in prioritized Sub-Saharan countries

Background

WHO and UNAIDS prioritized 14 eastern and southern African countries with high HIV and low male circumcision prevalence for a voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) scale-up in 2007. Because circumcision provides only partial protection against HIV infection to men, the issue of possible risk compensation in response to VMMC campaigns is of particular concern. In this study, we looked at population-level survey data from the countries prioritized by WHO for a VMMC scale-up. We compared the difference in sexual risk behaviours (SRB) between circumcised and uncircumcised men before and after the WHO’s official VMMC promotion.

Materials and methods

Ten countries (Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe) participating in the WHO’s VMMC scale-up had available data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We used cumulative-link mixed models to investigate interactions between survey period and circumcision status in predicting SRB, in order to evaluate whether the difference between the behavior of the two groups changed before and after the scale-up, while controlling for socio-demographic and knowledge-related covariates. The main responses were condom use at last sex and number of non-cohabiting sexual partners, both in the last 12 months.

Results

There was little change in condom use by circumcised men relative to uncircumcised men from before the VMMC scale up to after the scale up. The relative odds ratio is 1.06 (95% CI, 0.95–1.18; interaction P = 0.310). Similarly, there was little change in the number of non-cohabiting partners in circumcised men (relative to uncircumcised men): the relative odds ratio of increasing the number of partners is 0.95 (95% CI, 0.86–1.05; interaction P = 0.319). Age, religion, education, job, marital status, media use and HIV knowledge also showed statistically significant association with the studied risk behaviours. We also found significant differences among countries, while controlling for covariates.

Conclusions

Overall, we find no evidence of sexual risk compensation in response to VMMC campaigns in countries prioritized by WHO. Changes in relative partner behaviour and the relative odds of condom use were small (and of uncertain sign). In fact, our estimates, though not significant, both suggest slightly less risky behavior. We conclude that sexual risk compensation in response to VMMC campaigns has not been a serious problem to date, but urge continued attention to local context, and to promulgating accurate messages about circumcision within and beyond the VMMC context.

High Mobility and HIV Prevalence Among Female Market Traders in East Africa in 2014

BACKGROUND

The contribution of women's mobility to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa is poorly understood, despite women's high mobility and evidence that it is associated with higher-risk sexual behavior. We sought to measure levels of mobility, HIV prevalence, and related risk behaviors among female traders in Kisumu, Kenya.

METHODS

We used global positioning system mapping to develop a probability-based sample and recruited 305 female market traders for participation in a survey and voluntary HIV counseling and testing in 2014. We estimated HIV prevalence and fitted logistic regression models to measure associations between mobility, risk behaviors, and HIV infection.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was 25.6% (95% confidence interval: 21.0 to 30.8); 11.5% had migrated (changed residence, over county, or national boundary) in the past year and 39.3% in the past 5 years. More than one-third (38.3%) spent nights away from main residence in the past month, with 11.4% spending more than a week away. Multiple partners were reported by 13.1% of women in the last year; 16% of married women reported a concurrent partnership. Mobility was not significantly associated with HIV prevalence, although recent short-term mobility was significantly correlated with higher numbers of sexual partners in the past year.

CONCLUSIONS

Female market traders were highly mobile, and HIV prevalence among traders was higher than in the general population of women of reproductive age in Kisumu (15.3% in 2013), and Nyanza Province, Kenya (16.1% in 2012). High HIV prevalence and risk behavior among women in this study warrant accelerated attention to HIV prevention and care needs of mobile women, including market traders.