Thirty-day Readmission Rates in an HIV-infected Cohort From Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Supervised machine learning algorithms to predict the duration and risk of long-term hospitalization in HIV-infected individuals: a retrospective study

Objective

The study aimed to use supervised machine learning models to predict the length and risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWHs to help physicians timely clinical intervention and avoid waste of health resources.

Methods

Regression models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, and XGB to predict the length of hospital stay using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2, while classification models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, NN, and XGB to predict risk of prolonged hospital stay using accuracy, PPV, NPV, specificity, sensitivity, and kappa, and visualization evaluation based on AUROC, AUPRC, calibration curves and decision curves of all models were used for internally validation.

Results

In regression models, XGB model performed best in the internal validation (RMSE = 16.81, MAE = 10.39, MAPE = 0.98, R2 = 0.47) to predict the length of hospital stay, while in classification models, NN model presented good fitting and stable features and performed best in testing sets, with excellent accuracy (0.7623), PPV (0.7853), NPV (0.7092), sensitivity (0.8754), specificity (0.5882), and kappa (0.4672), and further visualization evaluation indicated that the largest AUROC (0.9779), AUPRC (0.773) and well-performed calibration curve and decision curve in the internal validation.

Conclusion

This study showed that XGB model was effective in predicting the length of hospital stay, while NN model was effective in predicting the risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWH. Based on predictive models, an intelligent medical prediction system may be developed to effectively predict the length of stay and risk of HIV patients according to their medical records, which helped reduce the waste of healthcare resources.

Impact of Latent M. tuberculosis Infection Treatment on Time to CD4/CD8 Recovery in Acute, Recent, and Chronic HIV Infection

INTRODUCTION

In people living with HIV, active and latent tuberculosis (TB) coinfections are associated with immune activation that correlate with HIV progression and mortality. We investigated the effect of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) during acute (AHI), recent (RHI), or chronic HIV infection (CHI) on CD4/CD8 ratio normalization and associated factors, the impact of latent TB infection treatment, and prior/concomitant TB diagnosis at the time of ART initiation.

METHODS

We included sex with men and transgender women individuals initiating ART with AHI, RHI and CHI between 2013 and 2019, from a prospective cohort in Brazil. We compared time from ART initiation to the first normal CD4/CD8 ratio (CD4/CD8 ≥1) using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were explored. Variables with P -values <0.20 in univariable analyses were included in multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Five hundred fifty participants were included, 11.8% classified as AHI and 6.4% as RHI, 46.7% with CHI-CD4 cell counts ≥350 cells/mm 3 and 35.1% with CHI-CD4 cell counts <350 cells/mm 3 . Time to normalization was shortest among AHI patients, followed by RHI and CHI individuals with higher baseline CD4. In the multivariable model, AHI was associated with a six-fold increased likelihood of achieving a CD4/CD8 ratio ≥1 (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.70 to 9.82; P < 0.001), RHI with HR: 4.47 (95% CI: 2.57 to 7.76; P < 0.001), and CHI CD4 ≥350 cells/mm 3 with HR: 1.87 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.84; P = 0.003). Latent TB infection treatment was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of the outcome (HR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.62; P = 0.003). Previous history or concomitant active TB at ART initiation was associated with a lower likelihood of the outcome (HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.16 to 1.02; P = 0.054).

CONCLUSIONS

Initiating ART early during AHI may offer an opportunity to mitigate immune damage. Efforts to implement HIV diagnosis and ART initiation during AHI are critical to amplify ART benefits.

Characteristics and risk factors for readmission in HIV-infected patients with Talaromyces marneffei infection

OBJECTIVES

Talaromyces marneffei (T. marneffei) is an opportunistic fungal infection (talaromycosis), which is common in subtropical regions and is a leading cause of death in HIV-1-infected patients. This study aimed to determine the characteristics and risk factors associated with hospital readmissions in HIV patients with T. marneffei infection in order to reduce readmissions.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of admitted HIV-infected individuals at the Fourth People's Hospital of Nanning, Guangxi, China, from 2012 to 2019. Kaplan-Meier analyses and Principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate the effects of T. marneffei infection on patient readmissions. Additionally, univariate and multifactorial analyses, as well as Propensity score matching (PSM) were used to analyze the factors associated with patient readmissions.

RESULTS

HIV/AIDS patients with T. marneffei-infected had shorter intervals between admissions and longer lengths of stay than non-T. marneffei-infected patients, despite lower readmission rates. Compared with non-T. marneffei-infected patients, the mortality rate for talaromycosis patients was higher at the first admission. Among HIV/AIDS patients with opportunistic infections, the mortality rate was highest for T. marneffei at 16.2%, followed by cryptococcus at 12.5%. However, the readmission rate was highest for cryptococcus infection (37.5%) and lowest for T. marneffei (10.8%). PSM and Logistic regression analysis identified leukopenia and elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) as key factors in T.marneffei-infected patients hospital readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The first admission represents a critical window to intervene in the prognosis of patients with T. marneffei infection. Leukopenia and elevated LDL may be potential risk factors impacting readmissions. Our findings provide scientific evidence to improve the long-term outcomes of HIV patients with T. marneffei infection.

Risk factors associated with 30-day hospital readmissions among persons living with HIV in Nantong, China

OBJECTIVE

To estimate 30-day hospital readmission rates among persons living with HIV (PLWH) at the Nantong Infectious Disease Hospital in China and analyse the related risk factors.

METHODS

A single-centre retrospective cohort study was conducted. There were 894 PLWH records obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR) system at the Nantong Infectious Disease Hospital in China, from October 2013 to February 2018. The 30-day readmission rates were calculated, and the risk factors were analysed by generalised estimating equations (GEEs).

RESULTS

A total of 1153 hospitalizations from 894 patients were recorded between October 2013 and February 2018. The median time of 30-day readmissions was 13 days (interquartile range (IQR), 6-23). The reasons for all causes, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses (ADIs), and non-AIDS-defining infections (non-ADIs) were 9.08, 13.52, and 7.91%, respectively. The results from the GEE analysis demonstrated that the risk factors associated with 30-days readmissions were as follows: no antiretroviral therapy (ART) prior to hospitalisations (odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21-3.00), low CD4 counts (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.33-3.54), and multiple comorbidities (OR = 6.45, 95% CI: 1.62-25.73).

CONCLUSION

Early detection of HIV infection and early initiation of ART treatment are the keys to controlling 30-day readmissions.

Interventions to reduce deaths in people living with HIV admitted to hospital in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy with terms for HIV, hospitals, and clinical trials, we searched for reports published between 1 Jan 2003 and 23 August 2021. Studies of interventions among adult HIV positive inpatients in LMICs were included if there was a comparator group and death was an outcome. We excluded studies restricted only to inpatients with a specific diagnosis (e.g. cryptococcal meningitis). Of 19,970 unique studies identified in search, ten were eligible for inclusion with 7,531 participants in total: nine randomised trials, and one before-after study. Three trials investigated systematic screening for tuberculosis; two showed survival benefit for urine TB screening vs. no urine screening, and one which compared Xpert MTB/RIF versus smear microscopy showed no difference in survival. One before-after study implemented 2007 WHO guidelines to improve management of smear negative tuberculosis in severely ill PLHIV, and showed survival benefit but with high risk of bias. Two trials evaluated complex interventions aimed at overcoming barriers to ART initiation in newly diagnosed PLHIV, one of which showed survival benefit and the other no difference. Two small trials evaluated early inpatient ART start, with no difference in survival. Two trials investigated protocol-driven fluid resuscitation for emergency-room attendees meeting case-definitions for sepsis, and showed increased mortality with use of a protocol for fluid administration. In conclusion, ten studies published since 2003 investigated interventions that aimed to reduce mortality in hospitalised adults with HIV, and weren't restricted to people with a defined disease diagnosis. Inpatient trials of diagnostics, therapeutics or a package of interventions to reduce mortality should be a research priority. Trial registration: PROSPERO Number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019150341.

Thirty-day readmission rates in a cohort of people living with HIV in southern Brazil, 2015 to 2017

BACKGROUND

The intense use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced morbidity and mortality of HIV infection. In Brazil, the specific contribution of diseases related to HIV infection leading to hospital admission and readmission is not well known.

AIMS

The study aimed to determine the clinico-epidemiological profile, 30-day readmission rate, and factors associated with this outcome in a cohort of adults with HIV infection in southern Brazil.

METHODS

Unicentric retrospective cohort, with data collection through the review of medical records and databases.

RESULTS

We analyzed 574 index hospitalizations and 451 individuals. Of these, 57.6% were men and the mean (±SD) age was 42.2 ± 12.3 years. Only 43.4% used ART regularly and low CD4 count and high frequency of detectable viral load were observed. HIV/AIDS-related diseases were identified in 55.2%, and tuberculosis was the most frequent etiology leading to index hospitalization. We found a 30-day readmission rate of 11.5% and hospitalization for HIV/AIDS-related illness was associated with a higher risk for the outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the need to expand resources for prevention, early diagnosis, retention, and treatment of people living with HIV in the region to reduce HIV/AIDS-associated diseases and possibly minimize consequent hospital readmission of these individuals.

Outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The identification and appropriate management of people with advanced HIV disease is a key component in the HIV response. People with HIV who are hospitalised are at a higher risk of death, a risk that might persist after discharge. The aims of this study were to estimate the frequency of negative post-discharge outcomes, and to determine risk factors for such outcomes in people with HIV.

Methods

Using a broad search strategy combining terms for hospital discharge and HIV infection, we searched MEDLINE via PubMed and Embase from Jan 1, 2003 to Nov 30, 2021 to identify studies reporting outcomes among people with HIV following discharge from hospital. We estimated pooled proportions of readmissions and deaths after hospital discharge using random-effects models. We also did subgroup analyses by setting, region, duration of follow-up, and advanced HIV status at admission, and sensitivity analyses to assess heterogeneity.

Findings

We obtained data from 29 cohorts, which reported outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge in 92 781 patients. The pooled proportion of patients readmitted to hospital after discharge was 18·8% (95% CI 15·3–22·3) and 14·1% (10·8–17·3) died post-discharge. In sensitivity analyses, no differences were identified in the proportion of patients who were readmitted or died when comparing studies published before 2016 with those published after 2016. Post-discharge mortality was higher in studies from Africa (23·1% [16·5–29·7]) compared with the USA (7·5% [4·4–10·6]). For studies that reported both post-discharge mortality and readmission, the pooled proportion of patients who had this composite adverse outcome was 31·7% (23·9–39·5). Heterogeneity was moderate, and largely explained by patient status and linkage to care. Reported risk factors for readmission included low CD4 cell count at admission, longer length of stay, discharge against medical advice, and not linking to care following discharge; inpatient treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) during hospitalisation was protective of post-discharge mortality.

Interpretation

More than a quarter of patients with HIV had an adverse outcome after hospital discharge with no evidence of improvement in the past 15 years. This systematic review highlights the importance of ensuring post-discharge referral and appropriate management, including ART, to reduce mortality and readmission to hospital among this group of high-risk patients.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

CD4+ cell count and outcomes among HIV-infected compared with uninfected medical ICU survivors in a national cohort

BACKGROUND

People with HIV (PWH) with access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience excess morbidity and mortality compared with uninfected patients, particularly those with persistent viremia and without CD4+ cell recovery. We compared outcomes for medical intensive care unit (MICU) survivors with unsuppressed (>500 copies/ml) and suppressed (≤500 copies/ml) HIV-1 RNA and HIV-uninfected survivors, adjusting for CD4+ cell count.

SETTING

We studied 4537 PWH [unsuppressed = 38%; suppressed = 62%; 72% Veterans Affairs-based (VA) and 10 531 (64% VA) uninfected Veterans who survived MICU admission after entering the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) between fiscal years 2001 and 2015.

METHODS

Primary outcomes were all-cause 30-day and 6-month readmission and mortality, adjusted for demographics, CD4+ cell category (≥350 (reference); 200-349; 50-199; <50), comorbidity and prior healthcare utilization using proportional hazards models. We also adjusted for severity of illness using discharge VACS Index (VI) 2.0 among VA-based survivors.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, CD4+ categories <350 cells/μl were associated with increased risk for both outcomes up to 6 months, and risk increased with lower CD4+ categories (e.g. 6-month mortality CD4+ 200-349 hazard ratio [HR] = 1.35 [1.12-1.63]; CD4+ <50 HR = 2.14 [1.72-2.66]); unsuppressed status was not associated with outcomes. After adjusting for VI in models stratified by HIV, VI quintiles were strongly associated with both outcomes at both time points.

CONCLUSION

PWH who survive MICU admissions are at increased risk for worse outcomes compared with uninfected, especially those without CD4+ cell recovery. Severity of illness at discharge is the strongest predictor for outcomes regardless of HIV status. Strategies including intensive case management for HIV-specific and general organ dysfunction may improve outcomes for MICU survivors.

COVID-19: What Is Next for Portugal?

Highly infectious with the possibility of causing severe respiratory complications, the novel COVID-19 began stretching health systems beyond their capacity all over the world and pushing them to breaking points. Giving the devastating effects caused by this infection, unprecedented measures have to be adopted in order to mitigate its impacts on the health system. This perspective aims to review the epidemic of COVID-19 in Portugal, possible areas of improvement, and potential interventions that can help to mitigate the effect of COVID-19 on the Portuguese health system.

Risk of Readmission Among HIV Patients in Public Portuguese Hospitals: Longitudinal Multilevel Population-Based Study

Background: Thirty-day hospital readmission is receiving growing attention as an indicator of the quality of hospital care. Understanding factors associated with 30-day hospital readmission among HIV patients in Portugal is essential given the high burden cost of HIV hospitalizations in Portugal, a country suffering from financial constrains for almost 10 years. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the 30-day hospital readmission rates among HIV patients in Portugal and to identify its determinants using population-based data for Portuguese public hospitals. Study Design: A multilevel longitudinal population-based study. Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2014, a total of 37,134 registered discharges in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) facilities with HIV/AIDS as a main or secondary cause of admission were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to compare 30-day hospital readmission categories by computing odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A normal random effects model was used to determine unmeasured factors specific to each hospital. Results: A total of 4914 (13.2%, 95% CI: 12.9%-13.6%) hospitalizations had a subsequent 30-day readmission. Hospitalizations that included exit against medical opinion (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39), scheduled admissions (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.58-1.85), and tuberculosis infection (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05-1.38) exhibited a higher risk of hospitalizations with subsequent 30-day readmission. In contrast, hospitalizations that included females (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81-0.94), a transfer to another facility (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67-0.91), and having a responsible financial institution (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.55-0.72) exhibited a lower risk of hospitalizations with subsequent 30-day readmission. Hospitalizations associated with higher number of diagnosis, older ages, or hospitalizations during the economic crisis showed an increasing trend of 30-day readmission, whereas an opposite trend was observed for hospitalizations with higher number of procedures. Significant differences exist between hospital quality, adjusting for other factors. Conclusion: This study analyzes the indicators of 30-day hospital readmission among HIV patients in Portugal and provides useful information for enlightening policymakers and health care providers for developing health policies that can reduce costs associated with HIV hospitalizations.

Construct validation: coping with HIV/AIDS in Primary Health Care

OBJECTIVE

To validate the construct and measure the trustworthiness of a questionnaire aimed at assessing HIV/AIDS coping actions developed by health professionals in Primary Health Care.

METHOD

A methodological study carried out with 397 primary health care professionals in two municipalities in the Northeast region of Brazil. The construct validity was developed by the exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and the reliability analyzed by the reliability and reproducibility.

RESULTS

The validation determined six factors retention that composed the six domains of the questionnaire. Internal consistency was 0.91 and quality of the confirmatory analysis adjustment was 0.998 for Goodness of Fit Index. The domains presented Kappa values between 0.833 and 0.997.

CONCLUSIONS

The final questionnaire was composed of 18 items and presented feasibility of application, and potential to evaluate actions for HIV/AIDS control in Primary Health Care.