Distribution and Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Mixed Population of HIV-Infected and Community-Based HIV-Uninfected Individuals in Uganda

No Evidence for an Association of HIV and Antiviral Treatment With Changes in Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score in the Ndlovu Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in high-income countries. The authors studied the longitudinal association between HIV and ART and nonlaboratory Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in a middle-income country.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This longitudinal analysis of the NCS (Ndlovu Cohort Study), South Africa used baseline to 36-month follow-up data. Demographics, HIV, ART status, and cardiometabolic measures were obtained. FRS was used as a CVD risk measure. Through linear mixed models, FRS trends over time and the association with HIV were studied. Analysis included 1136 participants, with 609 (54%) having HIV, and 495 (81%) taking ART. At baseline, 9.8% of participants had a high FRS. People living with HIV (PLHIV) had a 3.2% lower FRS than HIV-negative participants (P<0.001). FRS increased similarly for both groups over time. Other factors associated with FRS were secondary and higher education (ß value: -0.075, P<0.001; ß value: -0.084, P<0.001) and alcohol consumption (ß value: 0.011, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CVD risk increased for all participants over 36 months, suggesting classic risk factors rather than HIV status or ART to be drivers of CVD risk. People living with HIV had a significantly lower FRS than their HIV-negative counterparts, possibly related to HIV itself or a more frequent interaction with healthcare services. No association of HIV and ART with changes in FRS over 36 months was observed, suggesting the need for research using clinical endpoints to elucidate the effects of HIV and ART on CVD risk. Population-based prevention of CVD risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted, regardless of HIV status.

Association of HIV, cardiovascular risk factors, and carotid intimal media thickness: A cross-sectional study in Western Kenya

The carotid intimal media thickness (CIMT) is a validated measure of subclinical atherosclerosis. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and has been associated with CIMT in North America and Europe; however, there are limited data from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this cross-sectional study, we measured CIMT in a cohort of 262 people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥6 months and HIV-negative adults in western Kenya. Using linear regression, we examined the associations between CVD risk factors and CIMT, both overall and stratified according to the HIV status. Among the PLHIV, we examined the association between CIMT and HIV-related factors. Of 262 participants, approximately half were women. The HIV-negative group had a higher prevalence of age ≥55 years (P = .002), previously diagnosed hypertension (P = .02), treatment for hypertension (P = .03), and elevated blood pressure (BP) (P = .01). Overall prevalence of carotid plaques was low (15/262 [6.0%]). HIV-positive status was not significantly associated with a greater mean CIMT (P = .19). In multivariable regression models, PLHIV with elevated blood pressure or treatment for hypertension had a greater mean CIMT (P = .002). However, the CD4 count, viral load, and ART regimen were not associated with differences in CIMT. In the HIV-negative group, older age (P = .006), high total cholesterol levels (P = .01), and diabetes (P = .02) were associated with a greater mean CIMT. In this cross-sectional study of Kenyan adults, traditional CVD risk factors were found to be more prevalent among HIV-negative participants. After multivariable regression analysis, we found no association between HIV status and CIMT, and PLHIV had fewer CVD risk factors associated with CIMT than HIV-negative participants did. HIV-specific factors were not associated with the CIMT.

Sex-specific performance of the ASCVD pooled cohort equation risk calculator as a correlate of coronary artery calcium in Kampala, Uganda

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it is not known whether current risk assessment tools predict coronary atherosclerosis in the region. Furthermore, sex-specific performance and interaction with HIV serostatus has not been well studied.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study compared ASCVD risk scores and detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC>0) by sex in Kampala, Uganda (n = 200). The cohort was enriched for persons living with HIV, and all participants had at least one CVD risk factor. We fit log binomial regression models and constructed ROC curves to assess the correlation between ASCVD scores and CAC>0.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56. 62% were female and 50% of both men and women were living with HIV. The median 10-year ASCVD risk score was significantly higher in men (11.0%, IQR 7.6-19.4%) than in women (5.1%, IQR 3.2-8.7%), although the prevalence of CAC>0 was similar (8.1 vs 10.5%, p = 0.63). Each 10% increase in ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of CAC>0 in men (PR 1.59, 95% CI 1.00-2.55, p = 0.05) but not women (PR 1.15, 95% CI 0.44-3.00, p = 0.77). ROC curves demonstrated an AUC of 0.57 for women vs 0.70 for men. Adjustment for HIV serostatus improved the predictive value of ASCVD in women only (AUC 0.78, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

ASCVD risk score did not correlate with the presence of CAC in women. When HIV status was added to the ASCVD risk score, correlation with CAC was improved in women but not in men.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by HIV status in a population-based cohort in South Central Uganda: a cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of mortality for people living with HIV, but limited population-based data are available from sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of key cardiovascular disease risk factors, 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus through risk scores by HIV status, as well as investigate factors associated with hyperglycaemia, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in South-Central Uganda.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in 37 communities of the population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study from May 2016 to May 2018. In total, 990 people living with HIV and 978 HIV-negative participants aged 35-49 years were included. Prevalence estimates and 10-year cardiovascular and type 2 diabetes risk were calculated by sex and HIV serostatus. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine associations between socio-demographic, lifestyle and body composition risk factors and hyperglycaemia, hypertension and dyslipidaemia.

RESULTS

Overweight (21%), obesity (9%), abdominal obesity (15%), hypertension (17%) and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (63%) were the most common cardiovascular risk factors found in our population. These risk factors were found to be less common in people living with HIV apart from hypertension. Ten-year risk for cardiovascular and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk was low in this population with <1% categorized as high risk. In HIV-adjusted multivariable analysis, obesity was associated with a higher odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-3.96) and high triglycerides (OR = 2.08, CI 1.25-3.47), and abdominal obesity was associated with a higher odds of high triglycerides (OR = 2.55, CI 1.55-4.18) and low HDL (OR = 1.36, CI 1.09-1.71). A positive HIV status was associated with a lower odds of low HDL (OR = 0.43, CI 0.35-0.52).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study in Uganda, cardiovascular risk factors of obesity, abdominal obesity, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were found to be common, while hyperglycaemia was less common. Ten-year risk for cardiovascular and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk was low. The majority of cardiovascular risk factors were not affected by HIV status. The high prevalence of dyslipidaemia in our study requires further research.

Cardiovascular risk prediction equations underestimate risk in people living with HIV: Comparison and cut-point redefinition for 19 cardiovascular risk equations

BACKGROUND

Rates of cardiovascular disease are higher in people living with HIV. Early detection of high-risk subjects (applying cardiovascular risk equations) would allow preventive actions. D:A:D, ASCVD and FRS:CVD equations are the most recommended. However, controversies surround these equations and cut-points, which have the greatest capacity to discriminate high-risk subjects.

OBJECTIVES

The study aims (i) to assess the association/agreement between cardiovascular risk levels obtained with D:A:D and fifteen other cardiovascular risk equations, (ii) to detect cardiovascular risk equations capability to detect high-risk subjects, and (iii) to specify the optimal cardiovascular risk equation´s cut points for the prediction of carotid plaque presence, as a surrogate of high cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

86 adults with HIV were submitted to the clinical, laboratory and cardiovascular risk evaluation (including carotid ultrasound measurements). Cardiovascular risk was evaluated through multiple risk equations (e.g., D.A.D, ASCVD and FRS equations). Association and agreement between equations (Correlation, Bland-Altman, Williams´test) and equations capacity to detect plaque presence (ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity) were evaluated.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular risk equations showed a significant and positive correlation with plaque presence. Higher high-cardiovascular risk detection capability was obtained for ASCVD and D:A:D. Full D:A:D5y>0.88%, ASCVD>2.80% and FRS:CVD>2.77% correspond to a 80% sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

All cardiovascular risk equations underestimate the true risk in HIV subjects. The cut-points for high cardiovascular risk were found to vary greatly from recommended in clinical guidelines.

Lung function and atherosclerosis: a cross-sectional study of multimorbidity in rural Uganda

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of global mortality. In high-income settings, the presence of cardiovascular disease among people with COPD increases mortality and complicates longitudinal disease management. An estimated 26 million people are living with COPD in sub-Saharan Africa, where risk factors for co-occurring pulmonary and cardiovascular disease may differ from high-income settings but remain uncharacterized. As non-communicable diseases have become the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa, defining multimorbidity in this setting is critical to inform the required scale-up of existing healthcare infrastructure.

METHODS

We measured lung function and carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) among participants in the UGANDAC Study. Study participants were over 40 years old and equally divided into people living with HIV (PLWH) and an age- and sex-similar, HIV-uninfected control population. We fit multivariable linear regression models to characterize the relationship between lung function (forced expiratory volume in one second, FEV₁) and pre-clinical atherosclerosis (cIMT), and evaluated for effect modification by age, sex, smoking history, HIV, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Of 265 participants, median age was 52 years, 125 (47%) were women, and 140 (53%) were PLWH. Most participants who met criteria for COPD were PLWH (13/17, 76%). Median cIMT was 0.67 mm (IQR: 0.60 to 0.74), which did not differ by HIV serostatus. In models adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, and HIV, lower FEV₁ was associated with increased cIMT (β = 0.006 per 200 mL FEV₁ decrease; 95% CI 0.002 to 0.011, p = 0.01). There was no evidence that age, sex, HIV serostatus, smoking, or socioeconomic status modified the relationship between FEV₁ and cIMT.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired lung function was associated with increased cIMT, a measure of pre-clinical atherosclerosis, among adults with and without HIV in rural Uganda. Future work should explore how co-occurring lung and cardiovascular disease might share risk factors and contribute to health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa.

Treated HIV Infection and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study

Background Although ≈70% of the world's population of people living with HIV reside in sub-Saharan Africa, there are minimal prospective data on the contributions of HIV infection to atherosclerosis in the region. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy >40 years of age in rural Uganda, along with population-based comparators not infected with HIV. We collected data on cardiovascular disease risk factors and carotid ultrasound measurements annually. We fitted linear mixed effects models, adjusted for cardiovascular disease risk factors, to estimate the association between HIV serostatus and progression of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT). We enrolled 155 people living with HIV and 154 individuals not infected with HIV and collected cIMT images at 1045 visits during a median of 4 annual visits per participant (interquartile range 3-4, range 1-5). Age (median 50.9 years) and sex (49% female) were similar by HIV serostatus. At enrollment, there was no difference in mean cIMT by HIV serostatus (0.665 versus 0.680 mm, P=0.15). In multivariable models, increasing age, blood pressure, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with greater cIMT (P<0.05), however change in cIMT per year was also no different by HIV serostatus (0.004 mm/year for HIV negative [95% CI, 0.001-0.007 mm], 0.006 mm/year for people living with HIV [95% CI, 0.003-0.008 mm], HIV×time interaction P=0.25). Conclusions In rural Uganda, treated HIV infection was not associated with faster cIMT progression. These results do not support classification of treated HIV infection as a risk factor for subclinical atherosclerosis progression in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Registration URL: https://www.ClinicalTrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02445079.

Comparison of Predicted Cardiovascular Risk Profiles by Different CVD Risk-Scoring Algorithms between HIV-1-Infected and Uninfected Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study in Tanzania

Purpose

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is a suitable way to differentiate between high-risk individuals requiring intervention and risk modification, and those at low risk. However, concerns have been raised when adopting a CVD-risk prediction algorithm for HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa.

Patients and Methods

We compared cardiovascular risk profiles between HIV-infected (with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART)) and HIV-uninfected adults as predicted by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ASCVD) and the Framingham cardiovascular risk score (FRS) algorithms and assessed the concordance of the algorithms in predicting 10-year CVD risk separately in HIV-infected and uninfected groups in a hospital-based cross-sectional study in Tanzania. A cross-sectional hospital-based study including 40 HIV-infected ART-naive, 64 HIV-infected on ART, and 50 HIV-uninfected adults was conducted. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were determined by standard investigations. The primary outcome was the absolute 10-year CVD risk score based on the two algorithms.

Results

Compared to HIV-uninfected, HIV-infected adults were classified at a higher 10-year CVD risk. ASCVD algorithms predicted a higher proportion of high-risk individuals compared to FRS in both HIV-infected and uninfected groups. The concordance between ASCVD and FRS-lipid algorithms was reasonable for both HIV-infected and uninfected groups though relatively higher in the HIV-uninfected group.

Conclusion

HIV-infected individuals have a higher 10-year cardiovascular risk compared to HIV-uninfected persons. The concordance between ASCVD and FRS-lipid algorithms is reasonable in both HIV-uninfected and infected persons in Tanzania. Development of an HIV-specific algorithm is needed to accurately predict CVD risk in this population at high-risk.

Comparison of different cardiovascular risk tools used in HIV patient cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa; do we need to include laboratory tests?

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally, representing 31% of all global deaths. HIV and long term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are risk factors for development of CVD in populations of people living with HIV (PLHIV). CVD risk assessment tools are currently being applied to SSA populations, but there are questions about accuracy as well as implementation challenges of these tools in lower resource setting populations. We aimed to assess the level of agreement between the various cardiovascular screening tools (Data collection on Adverse effects of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D), Framingham risk score, WHO risk score and The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score) when applied to an HIV ART experienced population in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

This study was undertaken in an Anti-Retroviral Long Term (ALT) Cohort of 1000 PLHIV in care who have been on ART for at least 10 years in urban Uganda. A systematic review was undertaken to find the most frequently used screening tools from SSA PLHIV populations; these were applied to the ALT cohort. Levels of agreement between the resulting scores (those including lipids and non-lipids based, as well as HIV-specific and non-HIV specific) as applied to our cohort were compared. Prevalence Bias Adjusted Kappa was used to evaluate agreement between tools.

Results

Overall, PLHIV in ALT cohort had a median score of 1.1–1.4% risk of a CVD event over 5 years and 1.7–2.5% risk of a CVD event over 10 years. There was no statistical difference in the risk scores obtained for this population when comparing the different tools, including comparisons of those with lipids and non-lipids, and HIV specific vs non-HIV specific.

Conclusion

The various tools yielded similar results, but those not including lipids are more feasible to apply in our setting. Long-term cohorts of PLHIV in SSA should in future provide longitudinal data to evaluate existing CVD risk prediction tools for these populations. Inclusion of HIV and ART history factors to existing scoring systems may improve accuracy without adding the expense and technical difficulty of lipid testing.

HIV serostatus, inflammatory biomarkers and the frailty phenotype among older people in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Objective: We compared the prevalence of frailty by HIV serostatus and related biomarkers to the modified frailty phenotype among older individuals in a rural population in South Africa. Methods: Questionnaire data were from a cohort of people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV-uninfected people aged 50 years and older sampled from the Africa Health Research Institute Demographic Health and Surveillance area in northern KwaZulu-Natal. The prevalence of frailty was compared using five categories: (1) physical activity; (2) mobility; (3) fatigue; (4) gait speed; and (5) grip strength, and assessed for demographic, clinical, and inflammatory correlates of frailty. Results: Among 614 individuals in the study, 384 (62.5%) were women. The median age at study enrolment was 64 years [Interquartile range (IQR) (58.6-72.0)]. 292 (47.6%) were PWH. 499 (81%) were classified as either pre-frail or frail. 43 (7%) were frail and HIV positive, 185 (30%) were pre-frail and HIV positive, 57 were frail and HIV negative and 214 (35%) were pre-frail and HIV negative. Frailty was similar for HIV negative and PWH (17.7% vs 14.7%, p = 0.72). Women were more likely to be frail (18.3% vs 13.04%, p = 0.16). The prevalence of frailty increased with age for both HIV groups. In the multivariable analysis, the odds of being frail were higher in those aged 70 years and above than those aged between 50 and 59 years (p < 0.001). Females were less likely to be pre-frail than males (p < 0.001). There was no association between any of the inflammatory biomarkers and frailty and pre-frailty. Conclusion: In this population, the prevalence of frailty is similar for PWH and people without HIV, but higher for women than men. These data suggest that the odds of developing frailty is similar for PWH over the age of 50 years, who survive into older age, as for people without HIV.

Cardiovascular risk factors in HIV infected individuals: Comparison with general adult control population in Greece

Background

Although combined antiretroviral therapy has substantially improved the prognosis of people living with HIV (PLHIV), mortality remains higher compared to the general population, mainly due to higher prevalence of non-HIV-related comorbidities, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We assessed the prevalence of CVD risk and its contributing factors in adult PLHIV versus general population controls in Greece.

Settings

Cross-sectional comparison of PLHIV (Athens-Multicenter-AIDS-Cohort-Study; AMACS) versus general population controls (National health examination survey; EMENO).

Methods

All HIV-infected adults with ≥1 measurement of interest (blood pressure, lipids, glucose, weight, height) between 2012–2014 and all EMENO participants (2014–2016) were included. Ten-year total CVD risk was estimated using the Framingham (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) equations.

Results

5839 PLHIV (median age:41.6 years, 85.4% males) and 4820 controls (median age:48 years, 48.4% males) were included. Adjusting for age, sex and origin, PLHIV were more likely to be current smokers (adjusted OR:1.53 [95% CI:1.35–1.74]) and dyslipidemic (aOR:1.18; [1.04–1.34]), less likely to be obese (aOR:0.44 [0.38–0.52], with no differences in hypertension, diabetes or high (≥20%) FRS but with greater odds of high (≥5%) SCORE (aOR:1.55 [1.05–2.30]). Further adjustment for educational level, anti-HCV positivity and BMI showed higher prevalence of hypertension in PLHIV.

Conclusions

Despite the relative absence of obesity, PLHIV have higher prevalence of traditional CVD risk factors and higher risk of fatal CVD compared to general population. Regular screening and early management of CVD risk factors in PLHIV should be of high priority for CVD prevention.

Prevention of cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

As longevity has increased for people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States and Europe, there has been a concomitant increase in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and morbidity in this population. Whereas the availability of HIV antiretroviral therapy has resulted in dramatic increases in life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where over two thirds of PLWH reside, if and how these trends impact the epidemiology of CVD is less clear. In this review, we describe the current state of the science on how both HIV and its treatment impact CVD risk factors and outcomes among PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, including regional factors (unique to SSA) likely to differentiate these relationships from the global North. We then outline how current regional guidelines address CVD prevention among PLWH and which clinical and structural interventions are best poised to confront the co-epidemics of HIV and CVD in the region. We conclude with a discussion of key research gaps that need to be addressed to optimally develop an actionable public health response.

Coronary artery calcium, HIV and inflammation in Uganda compared with the USA

Objectives

To compare the prevalence of detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC) among higher risk, older people living with HIV (PLWH) and uninfected persons in Uganda versus the USA, and second to explore associations of CAC with HIV-specific variables and biomarkers of inflammation.

Methods

This cross-sectional study of 430 total subjects compared 100 PLWH on antiretroviral therapy and 100 age-matched and sex-matched HIV-uninfected controls in Uganda with 167 PLWH on antiretroviral therapy and 63 uninfected controls in the USA. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations with detectable CAC (CAC >0).

Results

Compared with US subjects, Ugandans were older (mean age 56 vs 52 years) and were more likely to have diabetes (36% vs 3%) and hypertension (85% vs 36%), but were less likely to be male (38% vs 74%) or smokers (4% vs 56%). After adjustment for HIV serostatus, age, sex and traditional risk factors, Ugandans had substantially lower odds of CAC >0 (adjusted OR 0.07 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.17), p<0.001). HIV was not associated with CAC >0 in either country (p>0.1). Among all PLWH, nadir CD4 count was associated with the presence of CAC, and among Ugandans soluble intercellular adhesion molecule (p=0.044), soluble CD163 (p=0.004) and oxidised low-density lipoprotein (p=0.043) were all associated with the presence of CAC.

Conclusions

Ugandans had a dramatically lower prevalence of any coronary calcification compared with US subjects. The role of HIV infection and inflammation as risk factors for subclinical coronary disease in sub-Saharan Africa merits further investigation.