Cost and Affordability of Habitual and Recommended Diets in Welfare-Dependent Households in Australia

It is crucial to ensure healthy diets are affordable in low socioeconomic groups, such as welfare-dependent households, who experience higher rates of diet-related disease than others. This study assessed the cost of habitual (unhealthy) and recommended (healthy) diets in six welfare-dependent and six other, comparable Australian households, using either popular branded products or the cheapest available alternatives. It also assessed diet affordability in welfare-dependent households, before and after modest increases in government welfare payments introduced in early September 2023. Results confirmed that recommended diets were less expensive than habitual diets in all households unless the cheapest available products were included. This strategy reduced habitual diet costs by 35-37% and recommended diet costs by 30-32%. The lower cost differential could aid perceptions that healthy foods are more expensive than unhealthy foods. In April 2023, 23-37% of the income of welfare-dependent households with children was required to purchase recommended diets; this reduced only to 20-35% in September 2023. Hence, the increases in welfare payments were insufficient to meaningfully improve the affordability of healthy diets in the most vulnerable Australians. In the current cost-of-living crisis, there is an urgent need for more welfare support to help purchase healthy diets. Monitoring of diet cost and affordability is also required.

Data-driven modelling for assessing trophic status in marine ecosystems using machine learning approaches

Assessing eutrophication in coastal and transitional waters is of utmost importance, yet existing Trophic Status Index (TSI) models face challenges like multicollinearity, data redundancy, inappropriate aggregation methods, and complex classification schemes. To tackle these issues, we developed a novel tool that harnesses machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), enhancing the reliability and accuracy of trophic status assessments. Our research introduces an improved data-driven methodology specifically tailored for transitional and coastal (TrC) waters, with a focus on Cork Harbour, Ireland, as a case study. Our innovative approach, named the Assessment Trophic Status Index (ATSI) model, comprises three main components: the selection of pertinent water quality indicators, the computation of ATSI scores, and the implementation of a new classification scheme. To optimize input data and minimize redundancy, we employed ML techniques, including advanced deep learning methods. Specifically, we developed a CHL prediction model utilizing ten algorithms, among which XGBoost demonstrated exceptional performance, showcasing minimal errors during both training (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.01) and testing (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.01) phases. Utilizing a novel linear rescaling interpolation function, we calculated ATSI scores and evaluated the model's sensitivity and efficiency across diverse application domains, employing metrics such as R2, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the model efficiency factor (MEF). The results consistently revealed heightened sensitivity and efficiency across all application domains. Additionally, we introduced a brand new classification scheme for ranking the trophic status of transitional and coastal waters. To assess spatial sensitivity, we applied the ATSI model to four distinct waterbodies in Ireland, comparing trophic assessment outcomes with the Assessment of Trophic Status of Estuaries and Bays in Ireland (ATSEBI) System. Remarkably, significant disparities between the ATSI and ATSEBI System were evident in all domains, except for Mulroy Bay. Overall, our research significantly enhances the accuracy of trophic status assessments in marine ecosystems. The ATSI model, combined with cutting-edge ML techniques and our new classification scheme, represents a promising avenue for evaluating and monitoring trophic conditions in TrC waters. The study also demonstrated the effectiveness of ATSI in assessing trophic status across various waterbodies, including lakes, rivers, and more. These findings make substantial contributions to the field of marine ecosystem management and conservation.

The relationship of sinus opacification, olfaction and dupilumab efficacy in patients with CRSwNP

BACKGROUND

Loss of sense of smell is one of the most burdensome symptoms of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) but its relationship to sinus disease on imaging is unclear. Dupilumab improves sense of smell and radiographic severity of sinus disease in patients with CRSwNP. We investigated the relationship of sinus opacification severity and loci to olfactory impairment and dupilumab efficacy in patients with CRSwNP from the SINUS-24/SINUS-52 (NCT02912468/NCT02898454) studies.

METHODS

Sinus opacification was evaluated using the Lund-Mackay computed tomography (LMK-CT) score and sense of smell using patient-reported loss of smell (LoS) score, University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) score and the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22) smell/taste item.

RESULTS

At baseline, 95% of patients (688/724) had impaired sense of smell and opacification was extensive across all sinuses. Greater olfactory impairment was associated with greater opacification, especially in the ethmoid, sphenoid and frontal sinuses. At Week 24, reductions in LMK-CT total score and ethmoid and sphenoid sinus scores with dupilumab were weakly correlated with improvements in sense of smell assessed by LoS, UPSIT and SNOT-22 smell/taste item. More dupilumab than placebo patients achieved clinically meaningful improvement in LMK-CT total score at Week 24 and Week 52.

CONCLUSION

Radiographic disease severity on imaging was associated with smell outcomes in this cohort. Opacification of the ethmoid, sphenoid and frontal sinuses was associated with severe smell loss. These data suggest that dupilumab effects on smell may be partly mediated through reduced sinus inflammation.

Comparison between the WFD approaches and newly developed water quality model for monitoring transitional and coastal water quality in Northern Ireland

This study aims to evaluate existing approaches for monitoring and assessing water quality in waterbodies in the North of Ireland using newly developed methodologies. The results reveal significant differences between the new technique and the existing "one-out, all-out" approach in rating water quality. The new approach found the water quality status to be "good," "fair," and "marginal," whereas the existing "one-out, all-out" technique classified water quality as "good," and "moderate," respectively. The new technique outperformed existing approaches in rating the water quality of different waterbody types, with high R2 = 1, NSE = 0.99, and MEF = 0 values. Furthermore, the final assessment of water quality using the new methodologies had the lowest uncertainty (<1 %), whereas the efficiency measures (NSE and MEF) indicate that the new approaches are bias-free to assess water quality at any geographic scale. The results of this study reveal that the newly proposed methodologies are effective in assessing the water quality states of transitional and coastal waterbodies in the North of Ireland. The study also highlighted the limitations of existing approaches and the importance of updating water resource management systems for better protection of these waterbodies. The findings have significant implications for water resource management and planning in the North of Ireland and other similar regions.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on surface water quality in Ireland using advanced Irish water quality index (IEWQI) model

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted various aspects of life, including environmental conditions. Surface water quality (WQ) is one area affected by lockdowns imposed to control the virus's spread. Numerous recent studies have revealed the considerable impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface WQ. In response, this research aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface water quality in Ireland using an advanced WQ model. To achieve this goal, six years of water quality monitoring data from 2017 to 2022 were collected for nine water quality indicators in Cork Harbour, Ireland, before, during, and after the lockdowns. These indicators include pH, water temperature (TEMP), salinity (SAL), biological oxygen demand (BOD5), dissolved oxygen (DOX), transparency (TRAN), and three nutrient enrichment indicators-dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), molybdate reactive phosphorus (MRP), and total oxidized nitrogen (TON). The results showed that the lockdown had a significant impact on various WQ indicators, particularly pH, TEMP, TON, and BOD5. Over the study period, most indicators were within the permissible limit except for MRP, with the exception of during COVID-19. During the pandemic, TON and DIN decreased, while water transparency significantly improved. In contrast, after COVID-19, WQ at 7% of monitoring sites significantly deteriorated. Overall, WQ in Cork Harbour was categorized as "good," "fair," and "marginal" classes over the study period. Compared to temporal variation, WQ improved at 17% of monitoring sites during the lockdown period in Cork Harbour. However, no significant trend in WQ was observed. Furthermore, the study analyzed the advanced model's performance in assessing the impact of COVID-19 on WQ. The results indicate that the advanced WQ model could be an effective tool for monitoring and evaluating lockdowns' impact on surface water quality. The model can provide valuable information for decision-making and planning to protect aquatic ecosystems.

Marine waters assessment using improved water quality model incorporating machine learning approaches

In marine ecosystems, both living and non-living organisms depend on "good" water quality. It depends on a number of factors, and one of the most important is the quality of the water. The water quality index (WQI) model is widely used to assess water quality, but existing models have uncertainty issues. To address this, the authors introduced two new WQI models: the weight based weighted quadratic mean (WQM) and unweighted based root mean squared (RMS) models. These models were used to assess water quality in the Bay of Bengal, using seven water quality indicators including salinity (SAL), temperature (TEMP), pH, transparency (TRAN), dissolved oxygen (DOX), total oxidized nitrogen (TON), and molybdate reactive phosphorus (MRP). Both models ranked water quality between "good" and "fair" categories, with no significant difference between the weighted and unweighted models' results. The models showed considerable variation in the computed WQI scores, ranging from 68 to 88 with an average of 75 for WQM and 70 to 76 with an average of 72 for RMS. The models did not have any issues with sub-index or aggregation functions, and both had a high level of sensitivity (R2 = 1) in terms of the spatio-temporal resolution of waterbodies. The study demonstrated that both WQI approaches effectively assessed marine waters, reducing uncertainty and improving the accuracy of the WQI score.

Quantification and purification of isotopic contamination at the ReAccelerator of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

At the ReAccelerator within the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, a combination of an interchangeable aluminum foil and a silicon detector was developed to quantify isobaric contamination in rare isotope beams. The device is simple to operate and is now used routinely. In this article, we describe the system and show an application of the device to determine the level of contamination of an Si-32 rare isotope beam by stable S-32. In addition, we describe how the new diagnostic device helped confirm an enhancement of the beam purity prior to beam delivery to experiments.

Cluster randomized controlled trial analysis at the cluster level: The clan command

In this article, we introduce a new command, clan, that conducts a cluster-level analysis of cluster randomized trials. The command simplifies adjusting for individual- and cluster-level covariates and can also account for a stratified design. It can be used to analyze a continuous, binary, or rate outcome.

A cross-sectional study of Q fever in Camels: Risk factors for infection, the role of small ruminants and public health implications for desert-dwelling pastoral communities

Q fever represents an important 'neglected zoonosis', with high prevalences recorded across the Middle East region. Among rural desert-dwelling communities in the region, camel milk is largely consumed raw, due to perceptions of dromedaries as a uniquely clean livestock species mentioned in the Qur'an and Islamic hadith, while milk from other livestock species is usually boiled. As a result, camels present a unique public health threat among such communities from milk-borne pathogens, including Coxiella burnetii. In view of this, a cross-sectional study was conducted among dromedary herds in southern Jordan between September 2017 and October 2018, including 404 camels from 121 randomly selected herds. In addition, 510 household members associated with these herds were interviewed regarding potential high-risk practices for zoonotic transmission. Weight adjusted camel population seroprevalence for C. burnetii was 49.6% (95% CI: 44.7-54.5), with evidence of maternally derived immunity in calves ≤6 months old. Adjusted herd-level prevalence was 76.0% (95% CI 72.7-80.2). It was estimated 30.4% (144/477) of individuals consumed raw milk from infected herds monthly or more. Following multivariable logistic regression analysis, seropositive status in camels was found to be associated with increasing age, high herd tick burdens, keeping the herd together throughout the year including when calving, and owning larger (>50) sheep and goat flocks, with goats presenting a higher risk than sheep. Racing camel status was found to be protective. Socioculturally appropriate interventions aimed at raising awareness of potential risks associated with drinking raw camel milk, alongside appropriate livestock management interventions, should be considered.

A sophisticated model for rating water quality

Here, we present the Irish Water Quality Index (IEWQI) model for assessing transitional and coastal water quality in an effort to improve the method and develop a tool that can be used by environmental regulators to abate water pollution in Ireland. The developed model has been associated with the adoption of water quality standards formulated for coastal and transitional waterbodies according to the water framework directive legislation by the environmental regulator of Irish water. The model consists of five identical components, including (i) indicator selection technique is to select the crucial water quality indicator; (ii) sub-index (SI) function for rescaling various water quality indicators' information into a uniform scale; (iii) indicators' weight method for estimating the weight values based on the relative significance of real-time information on water quality; (iii) aggregation function for computing the water quality index (WQI) score; and (v) score interpretation scheme for assessing the state of water quality. The IEWQI model was developed based on Cork Harbour, Ireland. The developed IEWQI model was applied to four coastal waterbodies in Ireland, for assessing water quality using 2021 water quality data for the summer and winter seasons in order to evaluate model sensitivity in terms of spatio-temporal resolution of various waterbodies. The model efficiency and uncertainty were also analysed in this research. In terms of different spatio-temporal magnitudes of various domains, the model shows higher sensitivity in four application domains during the summer and winter. In addition, the results of uncertainty reveal that the IEWQI model architecture may be effective for reducing model uncertainty in order to avoid model eclipsing and ambiguity problems. The findings of this study reveal that the IEWQI model could be an efficient and reliable technique for the assessment of transitional and coastal water quality more accurately in any geospatial domain.

Healthy Food Prices Increased More Than the Prices of Unhealthy Options during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Concurrent Challenges to the Food System

Food prices have escalated due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global food systems, and other regional shocks and stressors including climate change and war. Few studies have applied a health lens to identify the most affected foods. This study aimed to assess costs and affordability of habitual (unhealthy) diets and recommended (healthy, equitable and more sustainable) diets and their components in Greater Brisbane, Queensland, Australia from 2019 to 2022 using the Healthy Diets Australian Standardised Affordability and Pricing protocol. Affordability was determined for reference households at three levels of income: median, minimum wage, and welfare-dependent. The recommended diet cost increased 17.9%; mostly in the last year when the prices of healthy foods, such as fruit, vegetables and legumes, healthy fats/oils, grains, and meats/alternatives, increased by 12.8%. In contrast, the cost of the unhealthy foods and drinks in the habitual diet 'only' increased 9.0% from 2019 to 2022, and 7.0% from 2021 to 2022. An exception was the cost of unhealthy take-away foods which increased by 14.7% over 2019-2022. With government COVID-19-related payments, for the first time recommended diets were affordable for all and food security and diets improved in 2020. However, the special payments were withdrawn in 2021, and recommended diets became 11.5% less affordable. Permanently increasing welfare support and providing an adequate minimum wage, while keeping basic, healthy foods GST-free and increasing GST to 20% on unhealthy foods, would improve food security and diet-related health inequities. Development of a Consumer Price Index specifically for healthy food would help highlight health risks during economic downturns.

A novel approach for estimating and predicting uncertainty in water quality index model using machine learning approaches

With the significant increase in WQI applications worldwide and lack of specific application guidelines, accuracy and reliability of WQI models is a major issue. It has been reported that WQI models produce significant uncertainties during the various stages of their application including: (i) water quality indicator selection, (ii) sub-index (SI) calculation, (iii) water quality indicator weighting and (iv) aggregation of sub-indices to calculate the overall index. This research provides a robust statistically sound methodology for assessment of WQI model uncertainties. Eight WQI models are considered. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique was applied to estimate model uncertainty, while the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) algorithm was utilised to predict uncertainties in the WQI models at each sampling site. The sub-index functions were found to contribute to considerable uncertainty and hence affect the model reliability - they contributed 12.86% and 10.27% of uncertainty for summer and winter applications, respectively. Therefore, the selection of sub-index function needs to be made with care. A low uncertainty of less than 1% was produced by the water quality indicator selection and weighting processes. Significant statistical differences were found between various aggregation functions. The weighted quadratic mean (WQM) function was found to provide a plausible assessment of water quality of coastal waters at reduced uncertainty levels. The findings of this study also suggest that the unweighted root means squared (RMS) aggregation function could be potentially also used for assessment of coastal water quality. Findings from this research could inform a range of stakeholders including decision-makers, researchers, and agencies responsible for water quality monitoring, assessment and management.

Robust machine learning algorithms for predicting coastal water quality index

Coastal water quality assessment is an essential task to keep "good water quality" status for living organisms in coastal ecosystems. The Water quality index (WQI) is a widely used tool to assess water quality but this technique has received much criticism due to the model's reliability and inconsistence. The present study used a recently developed improved WQI model for calculating coastal WQIs in Cork Harbour. The aim of the research is to determine the most reliable and robust machine learning (ML) algorithm(s) to anticipate WQIs at each monitoring point instead of repeatedly employing SI and weight values in order to reduce model uncertainty. In this study, we compared eight commonly used algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Extra Tree (ExT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Linear Regression (LR), and Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB). For the purposes of developing the prediction models, the dataset was divided into two groups: training (70%) and testing (30%), whereas the models were validated using the 10-fold cross-validation method. In order to evaluate the models' performance, the RMSE, MSE, MAE, R², and PREI metrics were used in this study. The tree-based DT (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.0, R² = 1.0 and PERI = 0.0) and the ExT (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.0, R² = 1.0 and PERI = 0.0) and ensemble tree-based XGB (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.0, R² = 1.0 and PERI = +0.16 to -0.17) and RF (RMSE = 2.0, MSE = 3.80, MAE = 1.10, R² = 0.98, PERI = +3.52 to -25.38) models outperformed other models. The results of model performance and PREI indicate that the DT, ExT, and GXB models could be effective, robust and significantly reduce model uncertainty in predicting WQIs. The findings of this study are also useful for reducing model uncertainty and optimizing the WQM-WQI model architecture for predicting WQI values.

A comprehensive method for improvement of water quality index (WQI) models for coastal water quality assessment

Here, we present an improved water quality index (WQI) model for assessment of coastal water quality using Cork Harbour, Ireland, as the case study. The model involves the usual four WQI components - selection of water quality indicators for inclusion, sub-indexing of indicator values, sub-index weighting and sub-index aggregation - with improvements to make the approach more objective and data-driven and less susceptible to eclipsing and ambiguity errors. The model uses the machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, to rank and select water quality indicators for inclusion based on relative importance to overall water quality status. Of the ten indicators for which data were available, transparency, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen, BOD₅, chlorophyll, temperature and orthophosphate were selected for summer, while total organic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, pH, transparency and dissolved oxygen were selected for winter. Linear interpolation functions developed using national recommended guideline values for coastal water quality are used for sub-indexing of water quality indicators and the XGBoost rankings are used in combination with the rank order centroid weighting method to determine sub-index weight values. Eight sub-index aggregation functions were tested - five from existing WQI models and three proposed by the authors. The computed indices were compared with those obtained using a multiple linear regression (MLR) approach and R² and RMSE used as indicators of aggregation function performance. The weighted quadratic mean function (R² = 0.91, RMSE = 4.4 for summer; R² = 0.97, RMSE = 3.1 for winter) and the unweighted arithmetic mean function (R² = 0.92, RMSE = 3.2 for summer; R² = 0.97, RMSE = 3.2 for winter) proposed by the authors were identified as the best functions and showed reduced eclipsing and ambiguity problems compared to the others.

Ancient DNA of the pygmy marmoset type specimen Cebuella pygmaea (Spix, 1823) resolves a taxonomic conundrum

The pygmy marmoset, the smallest of the anthropoid primates, has a broad distribution in Western Amazonia. Recent studies using molecular and morphological data have identified two distinct species separated by the Napo and Solimões-Amazonas rivers. However, reconciling this new biological evidence with current taxonomy, i.e., two subspecies, Cebuella pygmaea pygmaea (Spix, 1823) and Cebuella pygmaea niveiventris (Lönnberg, 1940), was problematic given the uncertainty as to whether Spix’s pygmy marmoset (Cebuella pygmaea pygmaea) was collected north or south of the Napo and Solimões-Amazonas rivers, making it unclear to which of the two newly revealed species the name pygmaea would apply. Here, we present the first molecular data from Spix’s type specimen of Cebuella pygmaea, as well as novel mitochondrial genomes from modern pygmy marmosets sampled near the type locality (Tabatinga) on both sides of the river. With these data, we can confirm the correct names of the two species identified, i.e., C. pygmaea for animals north of the Napo and Solimões-Amazonas rivers and C. niveiventris for animals south of these two rivers. Phylogenetic analyses of the novel genetic data placed into the context of cytochrome b gene sequences from across the range of pygmy marmosets further led us to re-evaluate the geographical distribution for the two Cebuella species. We dated the split of these two species to 2.54 million years ago. We discuss additional, more recent, subdivisions within each lineage, as well as potential contact zones between the two species in the headwaters of these rivers.

Power and sample-size calculations for trials that compare slopes over time: Introducing the slopepower command

Trials of interventions that aim to slow disease progression may analyze a continuous outcome by comparing its change over time-its slope-between the treated and the untreated group using a linear mixed model. To perform a sample-size calculation for such a trial, one must have estimates of the parameters that govern the between- and within-subject variability in the outcome, which are often unknown. The algebra needed for the sample-size calculation can also be complex for such trial designs. We have written a new user-friendly command, slopepower, that performs sample-size or power calculations for trials that compare slope outcomes. The package is based on linear mixed-model methodology, described for this setting by Frost, Kenward, and Fox (2008, Statistics in Medicine 27: 3717-3731). In the first stage of this approach, slopepower obtains estimates of mean slopes together with variances and covariances from a linear mixed model fit to previously collected user-supplied data. In the second stage, these estimates are combined with user input about the target effectiveness of the treatment and design of the future trial to give an estimate of either a sample size or a statistical power. In this article, we present the slopepower command, briefly explain the methodology behind it, and demonstrate how it can be used to help plan a trial and compare the sample sizes needed for different trial designs.

Risk Factors for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection among Camel Populations, Southern Jordan, 2014-2018

After the first detection of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in camels in Jordan in 2013, we conducted 2 consecutive surveys in 2014–2015 and 2017–2018 investigating risk factors for MERS-CoV infection among camel populations in southern Jordan. Multivariate analysis to control for confounding demonstrated that borrowing of camels, particularly males, for breeding purposes was associated with increased MERS-CoV seroprevalence among receiving herds, suggesting a potential route of viral transmission between herds. Increasing age, herd size, and use of water troughs within herds were also associated with increased seroprevalence. Closed herd management practices were found to be protective. Future vaccination strategies among camel populations in Jordan could potentially prioritize breeding males, which are likely to be shared between herds. In addition, targeted management interventions with the potential to reduce transmission between herds should be considered; voluntary closed herd schemes offer a possible route to achieving disease-free herds.

Exploring Perceived Barriers and Facilitators of PrEP Uptake among Young People in Uganda, Zimbabwe, and South Africa

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention strategy. Few studies have explored adolescents and young people's perspectives toward PrEP. We conducted 24 group discussions and 60 in-depth interviews with males and females aged 13-24 years in Uganda, Zimbabwe, and South Africa between September 2018 and February 2019. We used the framework approach to generate themes and key concepts for analysis following the social ecological model. Young people expressed a willingness to use PrEP and identified potential barriers and facilitators of PrEP uptake. Barriers included factors at individual (fear of HIV, fear of side effects, and PrEP characteristics), interpersonal (parental influence, absence of a sexual partner), community (peer influence, social stigma), institutional (long waiting times at clinics, attitudes of health workers), and structural (cost of PrEP and mode of administration, accessibility concerns) levels. Facilitators included factors at individual (high HIV risk perception and preventing HIV/desire to remain HIV negative), interpersonal (peer influence, social support and care for PrEP uptake), community (adequate PrEP information and sensitization, evidence of PrEP efficacy and safety), institutional (convenient and responsive services, provision of appropriate and sufficiently resourced services), and structural (access and availability of PrEP, cost of PrEP) levels. The findings indicated that PrEP is an acceptable HIV prevention method. PrEP uptake is linked to personal and environmental factors that need to be considered for successful PrEP roll-out. Multi-level interventions needed to promote PrEP uptake should consider the social and structural drivers and focus on ways that can inspire PrEP uptake and limit the barriers.

O44: WOUND HEALING INFLAMMATORY MARKERS PREDICT PROGNOSIS AND SURVIVAL IN EARLY BREAST CANCER

Introduction

Cancer is likened to a non-healing wound. There is limited evidence on the expression of wound healing tissue inflammatory markers, CD68(pan-macrophage marker), HO-1(tumour cell marker) and FAP(cancer-associated fibroblast marker) in human breast cancer.

Method

In 201 invasive breast cancer and 58 DCIS patients, CD68+TAM expression, tumour HO-1 and fibroblast FAP expression, quantified by immunohistochemistry(dichotomised: high/present vs low/absent), was correlated with tumour factors (grade, proliferation(Ki67), ER, HER2); demographic factors, behavioural factors (smoking, alcohol) and survival status(DFS, OS)

Result

High CD68+macrophage expression was increased in invasive breast cancer, compared to DCIS, and normal tissue distant from the tumour(59%,41%and 6% respectively; p&lt;0.001).In invasive cancer,CD68+TAM expression increased with increasing tumour grade(Grade 1:42%, Grade 2:58%, Grade 3:72%; p=0.006), high Ki67(71%vs.47%; p=0.004), ER negativity(79.4%vs.55.4%; p=0.01) and HER2(HER2 positive 81.8% vs. HER2 negative 56.3%; p=0.03). CD68+TAM expression was higher in high compared to low/intermediate grade DCIS(44% % vs. 31% p=0.52). CD68+TAM expression was increased in patients who self-reported alcohol intake(non-drinker 43% vs. drinker 62%; p=0.01). HO-1 was associated with shorter DFS(HR:3.22,p=0.027) and OS(HR:2.86,p=0.029).FAP fibroblast expression correlated with longer DFS (HR:0.296,p=0.029) and OS (HR:0.271,p=0.008).

Conclusion

Tumour inflammation as assessed by CD68+TAM expression shows utility in identifying aggressive breast cancer sub-types. The association reported between CD68+TAM density and alcohol intake suggests a possible mechanism for alcohol as a risk factor for breast cancer. The prognostic value of HO-1 and FAP expression demonstrated here suggests a functional role of these wound healing markers in breast cancer. HO-1:Heme-oxygenase-1; FAP:Fibroblast activation protein; TAM:Tumour associated macrophage; DCIS: Ductal carcinoma in situ

Take-home message

Wound healing pathways of inflammation may be implicated in early breast cancer development

A Practical Guide to Using Time-and-Motion Methods to Monitor Compliance With Hand Hygiene Guidelines: Experience From Tanzanian Labor Wards

Understanding hand hygiene behaviors is critical in hospitals. We developed the HANDS at birth tool—and provide information on its design and implementation–to capture the complex patterns of health care workers’ hand hygiene including hand rubbing/washing, glove use, and recontamination.

Background: Good-quality evidence on hand hygiene compliance among birth attendants in low-resource labor wards is limited. The World Health Organization Hand Hygiene Observation Form is widely used for directly observing behaviors, but it does not support capturing complex patterns of behavior. We developed the HANDS at Birth tool for direct observational studies of complex patterns of hand rubbing/washing, glove use, recontamination, and their determinants among birth attendants. Understanding these behaviors is particularly critical in wards with variable patient volumes or unpredictable patient complications, such as emergency departments, operating wards, or triage and isolation wards during epidemics. Here we provide detailed information on the design and implementation of the HANDS at Birth tool, with a particular focus on low-resource settings. We developed the HANDS at Birth tool from available guidelines, unstructured observation, and iterative refinement based on consultation with collaborators and pilot results. We designed the tool with WOMBAT software, which supports collecting multidimensional time-and-motion data. Our analysis of the tool’s performance centered on interobserver agreement and convergent validity and the implications of the data structure for data analysis. The HANDS at Birth tool encompasses various hand actions and context-relevant information. Hand actions include procedures relevant during labor and delivery; hand hygiene or glove actions; and other types of touch. During field implementation, we used the tool for continuous observation of the birth attendant. Interobserver agreement was good (kappa range: 0.7–0.9), and the tool showed convergent validity. Using the HANDS at Birth tool is a feasible way to obtain useful information about compliance with hand hygiene procedures. The tool could be used after simple training and allows for collection of reliable information about the complex pattern of hygiene behaviors. Future studies should explore using this tool to observe behavior in labor wards in other settings and in other types of wards.

Birth attendants' hand hygiene compliance in healthcare facilities in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Background

With an increasing number of women delivering in healthcare facilities in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs), healthcare workers’ hand hygiene compliance on labour wards is pivotal to preventing infections. Currently there are no estimates of how often birth attendants comply with hand hygiene, or of the factors influencing compliance in healthcare facilities in LMICs.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review to investigate the a) level of compliance, b) determinants of compliance and c) interventions to improve hand hygiene during labour and delivery among birth attendants in healthcare facilities of LMICs. We also aimed to assess the quality of the included studies and to report the intra-cluster correlation for studies conducted in multiple facilities.

Results

We obtained 797 results across four databases and reviewed 71 full texts. Of these, fifteen met our inclusion criteria. Overall, the quality of the included studies was particularly compromised by poorly described sampling methods and definitions. Hand hygiene compliance varied substantially across studies from 0 to 100%; however, the heterogeneity in definitions of hand hygiene did not allow us to combine or compare these meaningfully. The five studies with larger sample sizes and clearer definitions estimated compliance before aseptic procedures opportunities, to be low (range: 1–38%). Three studies described two multi-component interventions, both were shown to be feasible.

Conclusions

Hand hygiene compliance was low for studies with larger sample sizes and clear definitions. This poses a substantial challenge to infection prevention during birth in LMICs facilities. We also found that the quality of many studies was suboptimal. Future studies of hand hygiene compliance on the labour ward should be designed with better sampling frames, assess inter-observer agreement, use measures to improve the quality of data collection, and report their hand hygiene definitions clearly.

Combined HIV Adolescent Prevention Study (CHAPS): comparison of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis regimens for adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa-study protocol for a mixed-methods study including a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

HIV remains a major public health issue, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pre-exposure prophylaxis is highly effective when adhered to, but its effectiveness is limited by cost, user acceptability and uptake. The cost of a non-inferiority phase III trial is likely to be prohibitive, and thus, it is essential to select the best possible drug, dose and schedule in advance. The aim of this study, the Combined HIV Adolescent PrEP and Prevention Study (CHAPS), is to investigate the drug, dose and schedule of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) required for the protection against HIV and the acceptability of PrEP amongst young people in sub-Saharan Africa, and hence to inform the choice of intervention for future phase III PrEP studies and to improve strategies for PrEP implementation.

METHODS

We propose a mixed-methods study amongst young people aged 13-24 years. The first component consists of qualitative research to identify the barriers and motivators towards the uptake of PrEP amongst young people in South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The second component is a randomised clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03986970, June 2019) using a novel ex vivo HIV challenge method to investigate the optimal PrEP treatment (FTC-TDF vs FTC-TAF), dose and schedule. We will recruit 144 amongst HIV-negative uncircumcised men aged 13-24 years from voluntary male medical circumcision clinics in two sites (South Africa and Uganda) and randomise them into one of nine arms. One group will receive no PrEP prior to surgery; the other arms will receive either FTC-TDF or FTC-TAF, over 1 or 2 days, and with the final dose given either 6 or 20 h prior to surgery. We will conduct an ex vivo HIV challenge on their resected foreskin tissue.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide both qualitative and quantitative results to help decide the optimum drug, dose and schedule for a future phase III trial of PrEP. The study will also provide crucial information on successful strategies for providing PrEP to young people in sub-Saharan Africa.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03986970 . Registered on 14 June 2019.

HIV prevalence and HIV clinical outcomes of transgender and gender-diverse people in England

OBJECTIVES

We provide the first estimate of HIV prevalence among trans and gender-diverse people living in England and compare outcomes of people living with HIV according to gender identity.

METHODS

We analysed a comprehensive national HIV cohort and a nationally representative self-reported survey of people accessing HIV care in England (Positive Voices). Gender identity was recorded using a two-step question co-designed with community members and civil society. Responses were validated by clinic follow-up and/or self-report. Population estimates were obtained from national government offices.

RESULTS

In 2017, HIV prevalence among trans and gender-diverse people was estimated at 0.46-4.78 per 1000, compared with 1.7 (95% credible interval: 1.6-1.7) in the general population. Of 94 885 people living with diagnosed HIV in England, 178 (0.19%) identified as trans or gender-diverse. Compared with cisgender people, trans and gender-diverse people were more likely to be London residents (57% vs. 43%), younger (median age 42 vs. 46 years), of white ethnicity (61% vs. 52%), under psychiatric care (11% vs. 4%), to report problems with self-care (37% vs. 13%), and to have been refused or delayed healthcare (23% vs. 11%). Antiretroviral uptake and viral suppression were high in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV prevalence among trans and gender-diverse people living in England is relatively low compared with international estimates. Furthermore, no inequalities were observed with regard to HIV care. Nevertheless, trans and gender-diverse people with HIV report poorer mental health and higher levels of discrimination compared with cisgender people.

Comparison of HIV Risk Behaviors Between Clinical Trials and Observational Cohorts in Uganda

Many key populations have high-risk behaviors for HIV infection making them suitable for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, these behaviors may change when participants enroll into a trial. We used HIV simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVETs) nested within observational cohorts of fisherfolks and female sex workers in Uganda to evaluate this difference. We screened observational cohort participants for enrolment into SiVETs, until 572 were enrolled. Those not enrolled (n = 953) continued participation in the observational cohorts. We determined risk behaviors at baseline and at 1 year, assigned a numeric score to each behavior and defined composite score as the sum of reported behaviors. We compared changes in scores over 12 months. Both observational cohorts and SiVETs saw a significant decrease in score but greatest in the SiVETs. Investigators recruiting for trials from these populations should consider the likely effect of reduction in risk behaviors on incident HIV infection and trial statistical power.

HIV serostatus, inflammatory biomarkers and the frailty phenotype among older people in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Objective: We compared the prevalence of frailty by HIV serostatus and related biomarkers to the modified frailty phenotype among older individuals in a rural population in South Africa. Methods: Questionnaire data were from a cohort of people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV-uninfected people aged 50 years and older sampled from the Africa Health Research Institute Demographic Health and Surveillance area in northern KwaZulu-Natal. The prevalence of frailty was compared using five categories: (1) physical activity; (2) mobility; (3) fatigue; (4) gait speed; and (5) grip strength, and assessed for demographic, clinical, and inflammatory correlates of frailty. Results: Among 614 individuals in the study, 384 (62.5%) were women. The median age at study enrolment was 64 years [Interquartile range (IQR) (58.6-72.0)]. 292 (47.6%) were PWH. 499 (81%) were classified as either pre-frail or frail. 43 (7%) were frail and HIV positive, 185 (30%) were pre-frail and HIV positive, 57 were frail and HIV negative and 214 (35%) were pre-frail and HIV negative. Frailty was similar for HIV negative and PWH (17.7% vs 14.7%, p = 0.72). Women were more likely to be frail (18.3% vs 13.04%, p = 0.16). The prevalence of frailty increased with age for both HIV groups. In the multivariable analysis, the odds of being frail were higher in those aged 70 years and above than those aged between 50 and 59 years (p < 0.001). Females were less likely to be pre-frail than males (p < 0.001). There was no association between any of the inflammatory biomarkers and frailty and pre-frailty. Conclusion: In this population, the prevalence of frailty is similar for PWH and people without HIV, but higher for women than men. These data suggest that the odds of developing frailty is similar for PWH over the age of 50 years, who survive into older age, as for people without HIV.

Survival of people aged 50 years and older by HIV and HIV treatment status: findings from three waves of the SAGE-Wellbeing of Older People Study (SAGE-WOPS) in Uganda

Background

Data on the survival status of older adults on antiretroviral treatment (ART) are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to determine the survival status of people aged 50 years and older who were HIV-negative, HIV-positive not on ART, and HIV-positive on ART.

Methods

We used three waves of data from the World Health Organisation Study on Global Ageing and adult health- Well Being of Older People Study cohort in Uganda, conducted in 2009, 2012–2013 and 2015–2016. The cohort included HIV-negative and HIV-positive persons aged 50 years and older recruited from multiple rural and peri-urban sites in Uganda. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaire. Time-dependent ART data were collected from medical records using a data-abstraction form. This study was conducted before the universal test and treat policy came into effect. We fitted Cox survival models to estimate hazard ratios to compare the risk of death between groups, adjusted for age, sex, marital status and hypertension.

Results

Of 623 participants, 517 (82.9%) of respondents had follow-up data and were included in this analysis. We observed 1571 person-years of follow-up from 274 people who were HIV-negative, and 1252 from 243 who were HIV-positive. The estimated mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.89 (95% CI 1.0–3.4; p = 0.04) among people living with HIV compared to HIV-negative people. The aHR for mortality among people receiving ART compared with HIV-negative people was 1.75 (95% CI 0.9–3.5). People who were HIV-positive and not receiving ART had the greatest risk of death (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.0–4.4 compared with HIV negative participants). The aHR for HIV-positive people not receiving ART, compared to those who were on treatment, was 1.19 (95% CI 0.6–2.5).

Conclusion

Older adults living with HIV on ART had a risk of mortality that was nearly twice as high as HIV-negative adults. Further analyses of longitudinal data should be done to understand factors that affect the survival of older adults on ART.

Cytomegalovirus Antibody Responses Associated With Increased Risk of Tuberculosis Disease in Ugandan Adults

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence highlights human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and immune activation as risk factors for tuberculosis disease. It is not known whether other herpesviruses are also implicated, nor whether a dose-response relationship exists between tuberculosis risk and herpes coinfection.

METHODS

This nested case-control study used stored serum samples from 25 persons with tuberculosis up to 10 years before tuberculosis diagnosis and between 3 and 6 matched controls without tuberculosis from a rural Ugandan cohort. Samples were investigated for Epstein-Barr virus, herpes simplex virus, and HCMV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG), serum markers of inflammation, and mycobacterial antibody levels.

RESULTS

Humoral response to HCMV, but not Epstein-Barr or herpes simplex virus, was associated with increased risk of active tuberculosis disease up to 10 years before diagnosis. Individuals with medium HCMV IgG were 2.8 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .055), and those with high HCMV IgG 3.4 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .007). Mycobacterial antibody levels were not associated with differences in odds of tuberculosis disease. Interferon-induced protein 10 was independently associated with increased odds of tuberculosis (odds ratio, 4.2; P = .009).

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide evidence of a dose response between magnitude of HCMV IgG with risk of tuberculosis disease. An inflammatory environment, characterized by serum interferon-induced protein 10 and interleukin 1α, is independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis disease.

Behavioural Determinants of Hand Washing and Glove Recontamination before Aseptic Procedures at Birth: A Time-and-Motion Study and Survey in Zanzibar Labour Wards

Recent research calls for distinguishing whether the failure to comply with World Health Organisation hand hygiene guidelines is driven by omitting to rub/wash hands, or subsequently recontamination of clean hands or gloves prior to a procedure. This study examined the determinants of these two behaviours. Across the 10 highest-volume labour wards in Zanzibar, we observed 103 birth attendants across 779 hand hygiene opportunities before aseptic procedures (time-and-motion methods). They were then interviewed using a structured cross-sectional survey. We used mixed-effect multivariable logistic regressions to investigate the independent association of candidate determinants with hand rubbing/washing and avoiding glove recontamination. After controlling for confounders, we found that availability of single-use material to dry hands (OR:2.9; CI:1.58–5.14), a higher workload (OR:29.4; CI:12.9–67.0), more knowledge about hand hygiene (OR:1.89; CI:1.02–3.49), and an environment with more reminders from colleagues (OR:1.20; CI:0.98–1.46) were associated with more hand rubbing/washing. Only the length of time elapsed since donning gloves (OR:4.5; CI:2.5–8.0) was associated with avoiding glove recontamination. We identified multiple determinants of hand washing/rubbing. Only time elapsed since washing/rubbing was reliably associated with avoiding glove recontamination. In this setting, these two behaviours require different interventions. Future studies should measure them separately.

Comparison of retention in observational cohorts and nested simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trials in the key populations in Uganda

Background

Outcomes in observational studies may not best estimate those expected in the HIV vaccine efficacy trials. We compared retention in Simulated HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials (SiVETs) and observational cohorts drawn from two key populations in Uganda.

Methods

Two SiVETs were nested within two observational cohorts, one in Fisherfolk (FF) and another one in Female Sex Workers (FSW). Adult participants in each observational cohort were screened for enrolment into SiVETs. Those screened-out or not screened continued participation in the observational (non-SiVET) cohorts. SiVET participants were administered a licensed hepatitis B vaccine in a schedule that mimicked an actual HIV vaccine efficacy trial. Both cohorts were followed for 12 months and retention was assessed through dropout, defined as lost to follow up, being uncontactable, refusal to continue or missing the last study clinic visit. Dropout rates were compared using Poisson models giving rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

Out of 1525 participants (565 FF and 960 FSW), 572 (38%) were enrolled into SiVETs (282-FF and 290-FSW), and 953 (62%) remained in the non-SiVET cohorts. Overall, 326 (101 SiVET, 225 non-SiVET) dropped out in 1260 Person Years of Observation (PYO), a dropout rate of 25.9 /100 PYO (95%CI: 23.2–28.8); fewer dropped out in the SiVET cohorts (18.4, 95% CI: 15.1–22.4) than in the non-SiVET cohorts (31.6, 95% CI: 27.8–36.1), rate ratio (RR) =0.58, 95% CI: 0.46–0.73. In all cohorts, the dropout was more marked in FSW than in FF population. Duration lived in community was associated with dropout in both SiVETs and religion in both non-SiVET cohorts.

Conclusion

The rate of dropout was lower in SiVET compared to non-SiVET cohort. Though the difference in dropout between SiVET and non-SiVET was generally similar, the actual dropout rates were higher in the FSW population. Conduct of SiVETs in these key populations could mean that designing HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials will benefit from lower dropout rate shown in SiVET than non-SiVET observational cohort.

Relationship Between Anemia, Malaria Coinfection, and Kaposi Sarcoma-Associated Herpesvirus Seropositivity in a Population-Based Study in Rural Uganda

We examined anemia and malaria as risk factors for Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) seropositivity and antibody levels in a long-standing rural Ugandan cohort, in which KSHV is prevalent. Samples from 4134 children, aged 1-17 years, with a sex ratio of 1:1, and 3149 adults aged 18-103 years, 41% of whom were males, were analyzed. Among children, malaria infection was associated with higher KSHV prevalence (61% vs 41% prevalence among malaria infected and uninfected, respectively); malaria was not assessed in adults. Additionally, lower hemoglobin level was associated with an increased prevalence of KSHV seropositivity, both in children and in adults.

Cross-sectional study of IgG antibody levels to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella LPS O-antigen with age in Uganda

Invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease is a major cause of deaths among children and HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. Acquisition of IgG to iNTS lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O-antigen in Malawi in early childhood corresponds with a fall in cases of iNTS disease suggesting that vaccines able to induce such antibodies could confer protection. To better understand the acquisition of IgG to iNTS in other African settings, we performed a cross-sectional seroepidemiological study using sera from 1090 Ugandan individuals aged from infancy to old age. Sera were analysed for IgG to LPS O-antigen of S. Typhimurium and S. Enteritidis using an in-house ELISA. Below 18 months of age, most children lacked IgG to both serovars. Thereafter, specific IgG levels increased with age, peaking in adulthood, and did not wane noticeably in old age. There was no clear difference in antibody levels between the sexes and the few HIV-infected individuals in the study did not have obviously different levels from uninfected subjects. While IgG to iNTS is acquired at a younger age in Malawian compared with Ugandan children, it is not clear whether this is due to differences in the populations themselves, their exposure to iNTS, or variations between assays used. In conclusion, there is a need to develop a harmonised method and standards for measuring antibodies to iNTS across studies and to investigate acquisition of such antibodies with age across different sites in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Impact of Intensive Versus Standard Anthelminthic Treatment on Allergy-related Outcomes, Helminth Infection Intensity, and Helminth-related Morbidity in Lake Victoria Fishing Communities, Uganda: Results From the LaVIISWA Cluster-randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of allergy-related diseases is increasing in low-income countries. Parasitic helminths, common in these settings, may be protective. We hypothesized that intensive, community-wide, anthelminthic mass drug administration (MDA) would increase allergy-related diseases, while reducing helminth-related morbidity.

METHODS

In an open, cluster-randomized trial (ISRCTN47196031), we randomized 26 high-schistosomiasis-transmission fishing villages in Lake Victoria, Uganda, in a 1:1 ratio to receive community-wide intensive (quarterly single-dose praziquantel plus albendazole daily for 3 days) or standard (annual praziquantel plus 6 monthly single-dose albendazole) MDA. Primary outcomes were recent wheezing, skin prick test positivity (SPT), and allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (asIgE) after 3 years of intervention. Secondary outcomes included helminths, haemoglobin, and hepatosplenomegaly.

RESULTS

The outcome survey comprised 3350 individuals. Intensive MDA had no effect on wheezing (risk ratio [RR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-1.93), SPT (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.42), or asIgE (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82-1.12). Intensive MDA reduced Schistosoma mansoni infection intensity: the prevalence from Kato Katz examinations of single stool samples from each patient was 23% versus 39% (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.88), but the urine circulating cathodic antigen test remained positive in 85% participants in both trial arms. Hookworm prevalence was 8% versus 11% (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-1.00). There were no differences in anemia or hepatospenomegaly between trial arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite reductions in S. mansoni intensity and hookworm prevalence, intensive MDA had no effect on atopy, allergy-related diseases, or helminth-related pathology. This could be due to sustained low-intensity infections; thus, a causal link between helminths and allergy outcomes cannot be discounted. Intensive community-based MDA has a limited impact in high-schistosomiasis-transmission fishing communities, in the absence of other interventions.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

ISRCTN47196031.

Feasibility of conducting HIV combination prevention interventions in fishing communities in Uganda: A pilot cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVE

We assessed feasibility of an HIV-combination-prevention trial among fishing communities in Uganda.

DESIGN

Cluster randomised trial in four fishing communities on Lake Victoria, Uganda. Two intervention communities received a combination-prevention-package (behaviour change communication, condom promotion, HIV testing, voluntary male medical circumcision and referral for anti-retroviral therapy if HIV-positive). All four communities received routine government HIV care services.

METHODS

Using household census data we randomly selected a cohort of consenting residents aged ≥18 years. A baseline sero-survey in July 2014 was followed by two repeat surveys in March and December 2015. We measured uptake of HIV prevention methods, loss-to-follow-up and HIV incidence, accounting for multistage survey design.

RESULTS

A total of 862 participants were enrolled and followed for 15 months. Participation was 62% and 74% in the control and intervention arms respectively; Overall loss to follow up (LTFU) was 21.6% and was similar by arm. Self-reported abstinence/faithfulness increased between baseline and endline in both arms from 53% to 73% in the control arm, and 55% to 67% in the intervention arm. Reported condom use throughout the study period was 36% in the intervention arm vs 28% in the control arm; number of male participants reporting circumsicion in both arms from 58% to 79% in the intervention arm, and 39% to 46% in the control arm. Independent baseline predictors of loss-to-follow-up were: being HIV positive, residence in the community for <1 year, younger age, living in an urban area, and being away from the area for >1 month/year.

CONCLUSIONS

Recruitment and retention of participants in longitudinal trials in highly mobile HIV fishing communities is challenging. Future research should investigate modes for locating and retaining participants, and delivery of HIV-combination prevention.

Simulated vaccine efficacy trials to estimate HIV incidence for actual vaccine clinical trials in key populations in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Fisherfolks (FF) and female sex workers (FSW) in Uganda could be suitable key populations for HIV vaccine efficacy trials because of the high HIV incidence and good retention in observational cohorts. However, the observed HIV incidence may differ in participants who enroll into a trial. We used simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVET) nested within observational cohorts in these populations to evaluate this difference.

METHODS

SiVETs were nested in two observational cohorts (Jul 2012-Apr 2014 in FF and Aug 2014-Apr 2017 in FSW). From Jan 2012 all observational cohort participants (aged 18-49 years) presenting for quarterly visits were screened for enrolment into SiVETs, until 572 were enrolled. Those not enrolled (screened-out or not screened) in SiVET continued participation in the observational cohorts. In addition to procedures in the observational cohorts (HIV testing & risk assessment), SiVET participants were given a licensed Hepatitis B vaccine mimicking a schedule of a possible HIV vaccine, and followed-up for 12 months.

FINDINGS

In total, 3989 participants were enrolled into observational cohorts (1575 FF prior to Jul 2012 and 2414 FSW prior to Aug 2014). Of these 3622 (90.8%) returned at least once, 672 (44.1%) were screened and 572 enrolled in the SiVETs. HIV incidence pre SIVETs was 4.5/100 person years-at-risk (pyar), 95%CI (3.8-5.5). HIV incidence in SiVET was 3.5/100 pyar, (2.2-5.6) and higher in those not enrolled in the SiVET, 5.9/100 pyar, (4.3-8.1). This difference was greatest among FF. In the 12 months post-SIVET period (FF, May 2014-Apr 2015 and FSW, May 2017-Apr 2018), the HIV incidence was 3.7/100 pyar, (2.5-5.8).

INTERPRETATION

HIV incidence was lower in SiVET participants compared to non-SiVET. This difference was different for the two populations. Researchers designing HIV efficacy trials using observational cohort data need to consider the potential for lower than expected HIV incidence following screening and enrolment.

Hands washing, glove use, and avoiding recontamination before aseptic procedures at birth: A multicenter time-and-motion study conducted in Zanzibar

BACKGROUND

Our primary objective was to assess hand hygiene (HH) compliance before aseptic procedures among birth attendants in the 10 highest-volume facilities in Zanzibar. We also examined the extent to which recontamination contributes to poor HH. Recording exact recontamination occurrences is not possible using the existing World Health Organization HH audit tool.

METHODS

In this time-and-motion study, 3 trained coders used WOMBATv2 software to record the hand actions of all birth attendants present in the study sites. The percentage compliance and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for individual behaviors (hand washing/rubbing, avoiding recontamination and glove use) and for behavioral sequences during labor and delivery were calculated.

RESULTS

We observed 104 birth attendants and 781 HH opportunities before aseptic procedures. Compliance with hand rubbing/washing was 24.6% (95% CI, 21.6-27.8). Only 9.6% (95% CI, 7.6-11.9) of birth attendants also donned gloves and avoided recontamination. Half of the time when rubbing/washing or glove donning was performed, hands were recontaminated prior to the aseptic procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, HH compliance by birth attendants before aseptic procedures was poor. To our knowledge, this is the first study in a low- to middle-income country to show the large contribution to poor HH compliance from hand and glove recontamination before the procedure. Recontamination is an important driver of infection risk from poor HH. It should be understood for the purposes of improvement and therefore included in HH monitoring and interventions.

HIV, HCMV and mycobacterial antibody levels: a cross-sectional study in a rural Ugandan cohort

OBJECTIVES

A growing evidence base implicates human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) as a risk factor for TB disease. We investigated total IgG and mycobacteria-specific antibodies in a cross-sectional study nested within a rural Ugandan General Population Cohort (GPC), in relation to HIV infection and the magnitude of HCMV IgG response.

METHODS

Sera from 2189 individuals (including 27 sputum-positive TB cases) were analysed for antibodies against mycobacteria (Ag85A, PPD, LAM, ESAT6/CFP10) and HCMV, tetanus toxoid (TT) and total IgG.

RESULTS

Anti-mycobacterial antibodies increased with age until approximately 20 years, when they plateaued. Higher HCMV exposure (measured by IgG) was associated with lower levels of some anti-mycobacterial antibodies, but no increase in total IgG. HIV infection was associated with a decrease in all anti-mycobacterial antibodies measured and with an increase in total IgG.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in anti-mycobacterial antibodies with age suggests increasing exposure to non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), and to M.tb itself. HIV infection is associated with decreased levels of all mycobacterial antibodies studied here, and high levels of HCMV IgG are associated with decreased levels of some mycobacterial antibodies. These findings point towards the importance of humoral immune responses in HIV/TB co-infection and highlight a possible role of HCMV as a risk factor for TB disease.

Changing nurses' views of the therapeutic environment: randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Although patients value evidence-based therapeutic activities, little is known about nurses' perceptions.AimsTo investigate whether implementing an activities training programme would positively alter staff perceptions of the ward or be detrimental through the increased workload (trial registration: ISRCTN 06545047).

METHOD

We conducted a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial involving 16 wards with psychology-led nurse training as the intervention. The main outcome was a staff self-report measure of perceptions of the ward (VOTE) and secondary outcomes measuring potential deterioration were the Index of Work Satisfaction (IWS) and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Data were analysed using mixed-effects regression models, with repeated assessments from staff over time.

RESULTS

There were 1075 valid outcome measurements from 539 nursing staff. VOTE scores did not change over time (standardised effect size 0.04, 95% CI -0.09 to 0.18, P = 0.54), neither did IWS or MBI scores (IWS, standardised effect size 0.02, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.16, P = 0.74; MBI standardised effect size -0.09, 95% CI -0.24 to 0.06, P = 0.24). There was a mean increase of 1.5 activities per ward (95% CI -0.4 to 3.4, P = 0.12) and on average 6.3 more patients attended groups (95% CI -4.1 to 16.6, P = 0.23) following training. Staff feedback on training was positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our training programme did not change nurses' perceptions of the ward, job satisfaction or burnout. During the study period many service changes occurred, most having a negative impact through increased pressure on staffing, patient mix and management so it is perhaps unsurprising that we found no benefits or reduction in staff skill.Declaration of interestNone.

Patient involvement in improving the evidence base on mental health inpatient care: the PERCEIVE programme

Background

Despite the movement towards care in the community, 40% of the NHS budget on mental health care is still attributed to inpatient services. However, long before the Francis Report highlighted grave shortcomings in inpatient care, there were reports by service user groups on the poor quality of these services in mental health. The programme provides a particular focus on the inclusion of the patient’s perspective in the development and evaluation of evidence.

Objectives

To understand how changes to inpatient care affect the perceptions of the ward by service users and staff by using stakeholder participatory methods.

Design

The programme consisted of four work packages (WPs). (1) Lasting Improvements for Acute Inpatient SEttings (LIAISE): using participatory methods we developed two new scales [Views On Therapeutic Environment (VOTE) for staff and Views On Inpatient CarE (VOICE) for service users]. (2) Client Services Receipt Inventory – Inpatient (CITRINE): working with nurses and service users we developed a health economic measure of the amount of contact service users have with staff. The self-report measure records interactions with staff as well as the number of therapeutic activities attended. (3) Delivering Opportunities for Recovery (DOORWAYS): a stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial to test if training ward nurses to deliver therapeutic group activities would improve the perception of the ward by service users and staff. A total of 16 wards were progressively randomised and we compared the VOICE, VOTE and CITRINE measures before and after the intervention. A total of 1108 service users and 539 staff participated in this trial. (4) Bringing Emergency TreatmenT to Early Resolution (BETTER PATHWAYS) was an observational study comparing two service systems. The first was a ‘triage’ system in which service users were admitted to the triage ward and then either transferred to their locality wards or discharged back into the community within 7 days. The second system was routine care. We collected data from 454 service users and 284 nurses on their perceptions of the wards.

Main outcome measures

The main outcomes for the DOORWAYS and BETTER project were service user and staff perceptions of the ward (VOICE and VOTE, respectively) and the health economic measure was CITRINE. All were developed in WPs 1 and 2.

Results

We developed reliable and valid measures of (1) the perceptions of inpatient care from the perspectives of service users and nurses (VOICE and VOTE) and (2) costs of interactions that were valued by service users (CITRINE). In the DOORWAYS project, after adjusting for legal status, we found weak evidence for benefit (standardised effect of –0.18, 95% CI 0.38 improvement to 0.01 deterioration;p = 0.062). There was only a significant benefit for involuntary patients following the staff training (N582, standardised effect of –0.35, 95% CI –0.57 to –0.12;p = 0.002; interactionp-value 0.006). VOTE scores did not change over time (standardised effect size of 0.04, 95% CI –0.09 to 0.18;p = 0.54). We found no evidence of an improvement in cost-effectiveness (estimated effect of £33, 95% CI –£91 to £146;p = 0.602), but resource allocation did change towards patient-perceived meaningful contacts by an average of £12 (95% CI –£76 to £98;p = 0·774). There were no significant differences between the triage and routine models of admission in terms of better perceptions by service users (estimated effect 0.77-point improvement in VOICE score on the triage ward;p = 0.68) or nurses (estimated effect of 1.68-point deterioration in VOTE on the triage ward;p = 0.38) or in terms of the cost of the length of care provided (£391 higher on triage;p = 0.77).

Strengths and limitations

We have developed measures using methods involving both service users and staff from mental health services. The measures were developed specifically for acute inpatient services and, therefore, cannot be assumed to be useful for other services. For instance, extensions of the measures are under construction for use in mother and baby units. The strength of the BETTER PATHWAYS and DOORWAYS projects is the large-scale data collection. However, we were testing specific services based in inner city areas and stretching to inner urban areas. It may be that different effects would be found in more rural communities or in different types of inpatient care.

Future work

Our database will be used to develop an understanding of the mediating and moderating factors for improving care quality.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN06545047.

Funding

This project was funded by the NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full inProgramme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 6, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The validity of an area-based method to estimate the size of hard-to-reach populations using satellite images: the example of fishing populations of Lake Victoria

Background

Information on the size of populations is crucial for planning of service and resource allocation to communities in need of health interventions. In resource limited settings, reliable census data are often not available. Using publicly available Google Earth Pro and available local household survey data from fishing communities (FC) on Lake Victoria in Uganda, we compared two simple methods (using average population density) and one simple linear regression model to estimate populations of small rural FC in Uganda. We split the dataset into two sections; one to obtain parameters and one to test the validity of the models.

Results

Out of 66 FC, we were able to estimate populations for 47. There were 16 FC in the test set. The estimates for total population from all three methods were similar, with errors less than 2.2%. Estimates of individual FC populations were more widely discrepant.

Conclusions

In our rural Ugandan setting, it was possible to use a simple area based model to get reasonable estimates of total population. However, there were often large errors in estimates for individual villages.

Towards elimination of HIV transmission, AIDS and HIV-related deaths in the UK

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to present recent trends in the UK HIV epidemic (2007-2016) and the public health response.

METHODS

HIV diagnoses and clinical markers were extracted from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System; HIV testing data in sexual health services (SHS) were taken from GUMCAD STI Surveillance System. HIV data were modelled to estimate the incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) and post-migration HIV acquisition in heterosexuals. Office for National Statistics (ONS) data enabled mortality rates to be calculated.

RESULTS

New HIV diagnoses have declined in heterosexuals as a result of decreasing numbers of migrants from high HIV prevalence countries entering the UK. Among MSM, the number of HIV diagnoses fell from 3570 in 2015 to 2810 in 2016 (and from 1554 to 1096 in London). Preceding the decline in HIV diagnoses, modelled estimates indicate that transmission began to fall in 2012, from 2800 [credible interval (CrI) 2300-3200] to 1700 (CrI 900-2700) in 2016. The crude mortality rate among people promptly diagnosed with HIV infection was comparable to that in the general population (1.22 vs. 1.39 per 1000 aged 15-59 years, respectively). The number of MSM tested for HIV at SHS increased annually; 28% of MSM who were tested in 2016 had been tested in the preceding year. In 2016, 76% of people started antiretroviral therapy within 90 days of diagnosis (33% in 2007).

CONCLUSIONS

The dual successes of the HIV transmission decline in MSM and reduced mortality are attributable to frequent HIV testing and prompt treatment (combination prevention). Progress towards the elimination of HIV transmission, AIDS and HIV-related deaths could be achieved if combination prevention, including pre-exposure prophylaxis, is replicated for all populations.

Human cytomegalovirus epidemiology and relationship to tuberculosis and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a rural Ugandan cohort

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection has been associated with increased mortality, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD), in high-income countries (HICs). There is a paucity of data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where HCMV seropositivity is higher. Serum samples from 2,174 Ugandan individuals were investigated for HCMV antibodies and data linked to demographic information, co-infections and a variety of CVD measurements. HCMV seropositivity was 83% by one year of age, increasing to 95% by five years. Female sex, HIV positivity and active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) were associated with an increase in HCMV IgG levels in adjusted analyses. There was no evidence of any associations with risk factors for CVD after adjusting for age and sex. HCMV infection is ubiquitous in this rural Ugandan cohort from a young age. The association between TB disease and high HCMV IgG levels merits further research. Known CVD risk factors do not appear to be associated with higher HCMV antibody levels in this Ugandan cohort.

Improving patient experiences of mental health inpatient care: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Poorer patient views of mental health inpatient treatment predict both further admissions and, for those admitted involuntarily, longer admissions. As advocated in the UK Francis report, we investigated the hypothesis that improving staff training improves patients' views of ward care.

METHOD

Cluster randomised trial with stepped wedge design in 16 acute mental health wards randomised (using the ralloc procedure in Stata) by an independent statistician in three waves to staff training. A psychologist trained ward staff on evidence-based group interventions and then supported their introduction to each ward. The main outcome was blind self-report of perceptions of care (VOICE) before or up to 2 years after staff training between November 2008 and January 2013.

RESULTS

In total, 1108 inpatients took part (616 admitted involuntarily under the English Mental Health Act). On average 51.6 staff training sessions were provided per ward. Involuntary patient's perceptions of, and satisfaction with, mental health wards improved after staff training (N582, standardised effect -0·35, 95% CI -0·57 to -0·12, p = 0·002; interaction p value 0·006) but no benefit to those admitted voluntarily (N469, -0.01, 95% CI -0.23 to 0.22, p = 0.955) and no strong evidence of an overall effect (N1058, standardised effect -0.18 s.d., 95% CI -0.38 to 0.01, p = 0.062). The training costs around £10 per patient per week. Resource allocation changed towards patient perceived meaningful contacts by an average of £12 (95% CI -£76 to £98, p = 0.774).

CONCLUSION

Staff training improved the perceptions of the therapeutic environment in those least likely to want an inpatient admission, those formally detained. This change might enhance future engagement with all mental health services and prevent the more costly admissions.