Laboratory monitoring to guide switching antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness

Can In-house HIV-2 Viral Load Assay be a Reliable Alternative to Commercial Assays for Clinical and Therapeutic Monitoring?

BACKGROUND

Currently, there is a global contemplation to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. HIV-2 poses unique challenges to this end. The burden of HIV-2 is higher in resource-limited countries, and it is intrinsically resistant to NNRTI drugs. In addition, there is no FDA-approved plasma viral load assay to monitor disease progression and therapeutic efficacy. To overcome these challenges, we have developed and evaluated an in-house quantitative HIV-2 viral load assay.

METHODS

Blood samples were collected from 28 HIV-2 treatment-naïve monoinfected individuals and tested using an in-house qPCR HIV-2 viral load assay. The extracted RNA was amplified using Quantifast pathogen + IC kit.

RESULTS

The in-house qPCR has a limit of detection of 695 copies/ml. The intra- and inter-assay variation (% CV) of the assay was 0.61 and 0.95, respectively. The in-house assay quantified HIV-2 NIBSC accurately (1000 IU) with a mean of 1952 copies/mL. Among the 28 samples tested by in-house qPCR assay, 11 (39.2%) samples were quantified, whereas 17 (60.7%) samples were not detected. In comparison with Altona RealStar HIV-2 RT PCR and Exavir Load RT assay, the results were 96.4% and 69.6% concordant, respectively. No significant (p = 0.99 and p = 0.13) difference in quantifying viral load between the three assays. Based on clinical and immunological (CD4) staging, the performance characteristics were comparable.

CONCLUSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first in-house qPCR developed in India. The performance characteristics of the in-house assay are comparable to the commercial assays, and they can be used assertively to monitor HIV-2 patients.

Routine versus Targeted Viral Load Strategy among Patients Starting Antiretroviral in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION

HIV viral load (VL) testing is recommended by the WHO as the preferred method for monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, evidence that routine VL (RVL) monitoring improves clinical outcomes is lacking.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, randomized controlled trial of RVL monitoring every six months versus a targeted VL (TVL) strategy (routine CD4 plus VL testing if clinical or immunological failure) in patients starting ART between April 2011 and April 2014 at Bach Mai Hospital in Hanoi. Six hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized to RVL (n = 305) or TVL monitoring (n = 342) and followed up for three years. Primary endpoints were death or WHO clinical Stage 4 events between six and thirty-six months of ART and rate of virological suppression at three years.

RESULTS

Overall, 37.1% of subjects were female, median age was 33.4 years (IQR: 29.5 to 38.6), and 47% had a CD4 count ≤100 cells/mm³ at time of ART initiation. Approximately 44% of study events (death, LTFU, withdrawal, or Stage 4 event) and 68% of deaths occurred within the first six months of ART. Among patients on ART at six months, death or Stage 4 event occurred in 3.6% of RVL and 3.9% of TVL (p = 0.823). Survival analysis showed no significant difference between the groups (p = 0.825). Viral suppression at 36 months of ART was 97.2% in RVL and 98.9% in TVL (p = 0.206) at a threshold of 400 copies/mL and was 98.0% in RVL and 98.9% in TVL (p = 0.488) at 1000 copies/mL. In ITT analysis, 20.7% in RVL and 21.9% in TVL (p = 0.693) were unsuppressed at 1000 copies/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no significant difference in rates of death or Stage 4 events and virological failure in patients with RVL monitoring compared to those monitored with a TVL strategy after three years of follow-up. Viral suppression rates were high overall and there were few study events among patients alive and on ART after six months, limiting the study's power to detect a difference among study arms. Nonetheless, these data suggest that the choice of VL monitoring strategy may have less impact on patient outcomes compared to efforts to reduce early mortality and improve ART retention.

The role of HIV viral load in mathematical models of HIV transmission and treatment: a review

Introduction

HIV viral load (VL) is accepted as a key biomarker in HIV transmission and pathogenesis. This paper presents a review of the role of VL testing in mathematical models for HIV prevention and treatment.

Methods

A search for simulation models of HIV was conducted in PubMed, yielding a total of 1210 studies. Publications before the year 2000, studies involving animals and analyses that did not use mathematical simulations were excluded. The full text of eligible articles was sourced and information about the intervention and population being modelled, type of modelling approach and disease monitoring strategy was extracted.

Results and discussion

A total of 279 studies related to HIV simulation models were included in the review, though only 17 (6%) included consideration of VL or VL testing and were evaluated in detail. Within the studies that included assessment of VL, routine monitoring was the focus, and usually in comparison to alternate monitoring strategies such as clinical or CD4 count-based monitoring. The majority of remaining models focus on the impact or delivery of antiretroviral therapy (n=68; 27%), pre-exposure prophylaxis (n=28; 11%) and/or HIV testing (n=24; 9%) on population estimates of HIV epidemiology and exclude consideration of VL. Few studies investigate or compare alternate VL monitoring frequencies, and only a small number of studies overall (3%) include consideration of vulnerable population groups such as pregnant women or infants.

Conclusions

There are very few simulations of HIV treatment or prevention that include VL measures, despite VL being recognised as the key determinant of both transmission and treatment outcomes. With growing emphasis on VL monitoring as key tool for population-level HIV control, there is a clear need for simulations of HIV epidemiology based on VL.

Point-of-Care HIV Viral Load Testing: an Essential Tool for a Sustainable Global HIV/AIDS Response

The global public health community has set ambitious treatment targets to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic. With the notable absence of a cure, the goal of HIV treatment is to achieve sustained suppression of an HIV viral load, which allows for immunological recovery and reduces the risk of onward HIV transmission. Monitoring HIV viral load in people living with HIV is therefore central to maintaining effective individual antiretroviral therapy as well as monitoring progress toward achieving population targets for viral suppression. The capacity for laboratory-based HIV viral load testing has increased rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, but implementation of universal viral load monitoring is still hindered by several barriers and delays. New devices for point-of-care HIV viral load testing may be used near patients to improve HIV management by reducing the turnaround time for clinical test results. The implementation of near-patient testing using these new and emerging technologies may be an essential tool for ensuring a sustainable response that will ultimately enable an end to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. In this report, we review the current and emerging technology, the evidence for decentralized viral load monitoring by non-laboratory health care workers, and the additional considerations for expanding point-of-care HIV viral load testing.

Clinical Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Laboratory Monitoring Strategies to Guide Antiretroviral Treatment Switching in India

Current Indian guidelines recommend twice-annual CD4 testing to monitor first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), with a plasma HIV RNA test to confirm failure if CD4 declines, which would prompt a switch to second-line ART. We used a mathematical model to assess the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of alternative laboratory monitoring strategies in India. We simulated a cohort of HIV-infected patients initiating first-line ART and compared 11 strategies with combinations of CD4 and HIV RNA testing at varying frequencies. We included adaptive strategies that reduce the frequency of tests after 1 year from 6 to 12 months for virologically suppressed patients. We projected life expectancy, time on failed first-line ART, cumulative 10-year HIV transmissions, lifetime cost (2014 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We defined strategies as cost-effective if their ICER was <1 × the Indian per capita gross domestic product (GDP, $1,600). We found that the current Indian guidelines resulted in a per person life expectancy (from mean age 37) of 150.2 months and a per person cost of $2,680. Adding annual HIV RNA testing increased survival by ∼8 months; adaptive strategies were less expensive than similar nonadaptive strategies with similar life expectancy. The most effective strategy with an ICER <1 × GDP was the adaptive HIV RNA strategy (ICER $840/year). Cumulative 10-year transmissions decreased from 27.2/1,000 person-years with standard-of-care to 20.9/1,000 person-years with adaptive HIV RNA testing. In India, routine HIV RNA monitoring of patients on first-line ART would increase life expectancy, decrease transmissions, be cost-effective, and should be implemented.

Cost-effectiveness of routine viral load monitoring in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Routine viral load monitoring for HIV-1 management of persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to identify treatment failure. However, viral load testing represents a substantial cost in resource constrained health care systems. The central challenge is whether and how viral load monitoring may be delivered such that it maximizes health gains across the population for the costs incurred. We hypothesized that key features of program design and delivery costs drive the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring within programs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies on the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We followed the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA reporting guidelines.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We identified 18 studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring in HIV treatment programs. Overall, we identified three key factors that make it more likely for viral load monitoring to be cost-effective: 1) Use of effective, lower cost approaches to viral load monitoring (e.g. use of dried blood spots); 2) Ensuring the pathway to health improvement is established and that viral load results are acted upon; and 3) Viral load results are used to simplify HIV care in patients with viral suppression (i.e. differentiated care, with fewer clinic visits and longer prescriptions). Within the context of differentiated care, viral load monitoring has the potential to double the health gains and be cost saving compared to the current standard (CD4 monitoring).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring critically depends on how it is delivered and the program context. Viral load monitoring as part of differentiated HIV care is likely to be cost-effective. Viral load monitoring in differentiated care programs provides evidence that reduced clinical engagement, where appropriate, is not impacting health outcomes. Introducing viral load monitoring without differentiated care is unlikely to be cost-effective in most settings and results in lost opportunity for health gains through alternative uses of limited resources. As countries scale up differentiated care programs, data on viral suppression outcomes and costs should be collected to evaluate the on-going cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring as utilized in practice.

A Simple Phosphate-Buffered-Saline-Based Extraction Method Improves Specificity of HIV Viral Load Monitoring Using Dried Blood Spots

Although Roche COBAS Ampliprep/COBAS TaqMan (CAP/CTM) systems are widely used in sub-Saharan Africa for early infant diagnosis of HIV from dried blood spots (DBS), viral load monitoring with this system is not practical due to nonspecific extraction of both cell-free and cell-associated viral nucleic acids. A simplified DBS extraction technique for cell-free virus elution using phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) may provide an alternative analyte for lower-cost quantitative HIV virus load (VL) testing to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the CAP/CTM v2.0 assay in 272 paired plasma and DBS specimens using the cell-free virus elution method and determined the level of agreement, sensitivity, and specificity at thresholds of target not detected (TND), target below the limit of quantification (BLQ) (<20 copies/ml in plasma or <400 copies/ml in DBS), and VL of <1,000 copies/ml, and VL of <5,000 copies/ml. Reported plasma VL ranged from TND, or <20, to 5,781,592 copies/ml, and DBS VL ranged from TND, or <400, to 467,600 copies/ml. At <1000 copies/ml, agreement between DBS and plasma was 96.7% (kappa coefficient, 0.93; P < 0.0001). The mean difference between DBS and plasma VL values was -1.06 log10 copies/ml (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.17, -0.97; P < 0.0001). At a treatment failure threshold of >1,000 copies/ml, the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV) were 92.7%, 100%, 100%, and 94.3%, respectively. PBS elution of DBS offers a sensitive and specific method for monitoring plasma viremia among adults and children on ART at the WHO-recommended threshold of >1,000 copies/ml on the Roche CAP/CTM system.

Predictors of treatment failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy among adults in northwest Ethiopia: a multicentre retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

The number of patients using second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased over time. In Ethiopia, 1.5% of HIV infected patients on ART are using a second-line regimen and little is known about its effect in this setting.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rate and predictors of treatment failure on second-line ART among adults living with HIV in northwest Ethiopia.

SETTING

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted at three tertiary hospitals in northwest Ethiopia from March to May 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

356 adult patients participated and 198 (55.6%) were males. Individuals who were on second-line ART for at least 6 months of treatment were included and the data were collected by reviewing their records.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was treatment failure defined as immunological failure, clinical failure, death, or lost to follow-up. To assess our outcome, we used the definitions of the WHO 2010 guideline.

RESULT

The mean±SD age of participants at switch was 36±8.9 years. The incidence rate of failure was 61.7/1000 person years. The probability of failure at the end of 12 and 24 months were 5.6% and 13.6%, respectively. Out of 67 total failures, 42 (62.7%) occurred in the first 2 years. The significant predictors of failure were found to be: WHO clinical stage IV at switch (adjusted HR (AHR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.1); CD4 count <100 cells/mm³ at switch (AHR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.5); and weight change (AHR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of treatment failure was highest during the first 2 years of treatment. WHO clinical stage, CD4 count at switch, and change in weight were found to be predictors of treatment failure.

Laboratory Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Infection: Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact of Current and Novel Strategies

BACKGROUND

Optimal laboratory monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains controversial. We evaluated current and novel monitoring strategies in Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications -International model to compare clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of 11 ART monitoring strategies varying by type (CD4 and/or viral load [VL]) and frequency. We included "adaptive" strategies (biannual then annual monitoring for patients on ART/suppressed). Mean CD4 count at ART initiation was 154/μL. Laboratory test costs were CD4=$11 and VL=$33. The standard of care (SOC; biannual CD4) was the comparator. We assessed cost-effectiveness relative to Côte d'Ivoire's 2013 per capita GDP ($1500).

RESULTS

Discounted life expectancy was 16.69 years for SOC, 16.97 years with VL confirmation of immunologic failure, and 17.25 years for adaptive VL. Mean time on failed first-line ART was 3.7 years for SOC and <0.9 years for all routine/adaptive VL strategies. VL failure confirmation was cost-saving compared with SOC. Adaptive VL had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4100/year of life saved compared with VL confirmation and increased the 5-year budget by $310/patient compared with SOC. Adaptive VL achieved an ICER <1× GDP if second-line ART and VL costs simultaneously decreased to $156 and $13, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

VL confirmation of immunologic failure is more effective and less costly than CD4 monitoring in Côte d'Ivoire. Adaptive VL monitoring reduces time on failing ART, is cost-effective, and should become standard in Côte d'Ivoire and similar settings.

Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1 to 3 months for clinical assessment. The clinic costs are comparable with the costs of the drugs themselves and CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, but patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes, a transition to more cost-effective delivery of antiretroviral therapy is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (the viral load) provides a direct measure of the current treatment effect. Viral-load-informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care so that those with suppressed viral load visit the clinic less frequently and attention is focussed on those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach to measuring viral load in many countries is to collect dried blood spot samples for testing in regional laboratories; however, there have been concerns over the sensitivity and specificity of this approach to define treatment failure and the delay in returning results to the clinic. We use modelling to synthesize evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral-load-informed differentiated care, accounting for limitations of dried blood sample testing. We find that viral-load-informed differentiated care using dried blood sample testing is cost-effective and is a recommended strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of point-of-care viral load tests that may become available in the future.

The performance of reverse transcriptase assay for the estimation of the plasma viral load in HIV-1 and HIV-2 infections

Viral load testing for human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) in resource-poor settings continues to be a challenge. Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) is being made available in developing countries, monitoring of viral load is not being done on a regular basis. The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of Cavidi version 3.0, which measures the plasma reverse transcriptase (RT) activity and compare its performance with molecular HIV viral load assays. In all, 125 HIV-1 and 13 HIV-2 positive samples were analyzed. The overall sensitivity of the assay was 86.8% and 94.1% for viral load >1000 copies/ml measured by Qiagen Artus HIV-1 RG RT PCR and Abbott RealTime HIV-1 PCR assays, respectively. Compared with the routine molecular viral load assays, Cavidi version 3.0 is inexpensive, user-friendly, the expenditure on infrastructure is minimal, and it can be used for monitoring of both HIV types.

CD4 count-based failure criteria combined with viral load monitoring may trigger worse switch decisions than viral load monitoring alone

OBJECTIVE

CD4 count decline often triggers antiretroviral regimen switches in resource-limited settings, even when viral load testing is available. We therefore compared CD4 failure and CD4 trends in patients with viraemia with or without antiretroviral resistance.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study investigating the association of HIV drug resistance with CD4 failure or CD4 trends in patients on first-line antiretroviral regimens during viraemia. Patients with viraemia (HIV RNA >1000 copies/ml) from two HIV treatment programmes in South Africa (n = 350) were included. We investigated the association of M184V and NNRTI resistance with WHO immunological failure criteria and CD4 count trends, using chi-square tests and linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Fewer patients with the M184V mutation reached immunologic failure criteria than those without: 51 of 151(34%) vs. 90 of 199 (45%) (P = 0.03). Similarly, 79 of 220 (36%) patients, who had major NNRTI resistance, had immunological failure, whereas 62 of 130 (48%) without (chi-square P = 0.03) did. The CD4 count decline among patients with the M184V mutation was 2.5 cells/mm(3) /year, whereas in those without M184V it was 14 cells/mm(3) /year (P = 0.1), but the difference in CD4 count decline with and without NNRTI resistance was marginal.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that CD4 count monitoring may lead to inappropriate delayed therapy switches for patients with HIV drug resistance. Conversely, patients with viraemia but no drug resistance are more likely to have a CD4 count decline and thus may be more likely to be switched to a second-line regimen.

The cost-effectiveness of monitoring strategies for antiretroviral therapy of HIV infected patients in resource-limited settings: software tool

Background

The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2^nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs.

Results

Introducing 2^nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1^st- and 2^nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure.

Conclusion

Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2^nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of making third-line antiretroviral therapy available in sub-Saharan Africa: a model-based analysis in Côte d'Ivoire

OBJECTIVE

In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-infected adults who fail second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) often do not have access to third-line ART. We examined the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of making third-line ART available in Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

We used a simulation model to compare 4 strategies after second-line ART failure: continue second-line ART (C-ART2), continue second-line ART with an adherence reinforcement intervention (AR-ART2), immediate switch to third-line ART (IS-ART3), and continue second-line ART with adherence reinforcement, switching patients with persistent failure to third-line ART (AR-ART3). Third-line ART consisted of a boosted-darunavir plus raltegravir-based regimen. Primary outcomes were 10-year survival and lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), in $/year of life saved (YLS). ICERs below $3585 (3 times the country per capita gross domestic product) were considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

Ten-year survival was 6.0% with C-ART2, 17.0% with AR-ART2, 35.4% with IS-ART3, and 37.2% with AR-ART3. AR-ART2 was cost-effective ($1100/YLS). AR-ART3 had an ICER of $3600/YLS and became cost-effective if the cost of third-line ART decreased by <1%. IS-ART3 was less effective and more costly than AR-ART3. Results were robust to wide variations in the efficacy of third-line ART and of the adherence reinforcement, as well as in the cost of second-line ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Access to third-line ART combined with an intense adherence reinforcement phase, used as a tool to distinguish between patients who can still benefit from their current second-line regimen and those who truly need third-line ART would provide substantial survival benefits. With minor decreases in drug costs, this strategy would be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV drug resistance testing to inform switching to second line antiretroviral therapy in low income settings

Background

To guide future need for cheap resistance tests for use in low income settings, we assessed cost-effectiveness of drug resistance testing as part of monitoring of people on first line ART - with switching from first to second line ART being conditional on NNRTI drug resistance mutations being identified.

Methods

An individual level simulation model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which accounts for adherence and resistance development was used to compare outcomes of various potential monitoring strategies in a typical low income setting in sub-Saharan Africa. Underlying monitoring strategies considered were based on clinical disease, CD4 count or viral load. Within each we considered a strategy in which no further measures are performed, one with a viral load measure to confirm failure, and one with both a viral load measure and a resistance test. Predicted outcomes were assessed over 2015–2025 in terms of viral suppression, first line failure, switching to second line regimen, death, HIV incidence, disability-adjusted-life-years averted and costs. Potential future low costs of resistance tests ($30) were used.

Results

The most effective strategy, in terms of DALYs averted, was one using viral load monitoring without confirmation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for this strategy was $2113 (the same as that for viral load monitoring with confirmation). ART monitoring strategies which involved resistance testing did not emerge as being more effective or cost effective than strategies not using it. The slightly reduced ART costs resulting from use of resistance testing, due to less use of second line regimens, was of similar magnitude to the costs of resistance tests.

Conclusion

Use of resistance testing at the time of first line failure as part of the decision whether to switch to second line therapy was not cost-effective, even though the test was assumed to be very inexpensive.

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy

With the widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy, there is a dramatic decline in HIV related morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Further, the current antiretroviral drug combinations are safer and the availability of newer monitoring assays and guidelines has vastly improved the patient management. The clinician needs to evaluate several key issues prior to institution of antiretroviral regimen including the correct stage of starting the treatment and the kind of regimen to initiate. In addition to various disease related factors, it is also critical to assess the patient's general condition including nutritional status, presence of co-morbidities and mental preparedness prior to starting the therapy. The patients need to develop an overall understanding of the treatment and its benefits and the importance of lifelong adherence to the drugs. The presence of special situations like pediatric age, older patients, pregnancy, lactation and presence of opportunistic infections also require modification of the therapy. This review briefly summarizes issues relevant to the clinician prior to the initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy

With the widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy, there is a dramatic decline in HIV related morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Further, the current antiretroviral drug combinations are safer and the availability of newer monitoring assays and guidelines has vastly improved the patient management. The clinician needs to evaluate several key issues prior to institution of antiretroviral regimen including the correct stage of starting the treatment and the kind of regimen to initiate. In addition to various disease related factors, it is also critical to assess the patient's general condition including nutritional status, presence of co-morbidities and mental preparedness prior to starting the therapy. The patients need to develop an overall understanding of the treatment and its benefits and the importance of lifelong adherence to the drugs. The presence of special situations like pediatric age, older patients, pregnancy, lactation and presence of opportunistic infections also require modification of the therapy. This review briefly summarizes issues relevant to the clinician prior to the initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

BACKGROUND

WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies.

METHODS

We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis.

FINDINGS

All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6-12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility.

INTERPRETATION

The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Viral load monitoring as a tool to reinforce adherence: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Viral load monitoring has been proposed as a tool to reinforce adherence, but outcomes have never been systematically assessed.

DESIGN

A meta-analysis was conducted to systematically analyze the research on viral load monitoring as a tool to reinforce adherence. Viremic resuppression is defined here as a decrease in viral load beneath a particular threshold following viral load levels that have been elevated despite antiretroviral treatment.

METHODS

Six databases were searched for studies published up to November 2012, which reported the use of viral load monitoring as a tool to identify patients in need of adherence support. Three conference abstract sites were reviewed for studies reported in the last 2 years. Randomized and quasi-randomized trials and observational studies, were eligible. No language or geographical restrictions were applied.

RESULTS

Six retrospective and 2 prospective observational studies reported data from 8 countries: South Africa, the United States, Thailand, Mali, Burkina Faso, Swaziland, India, and France. Five studies reported on viremic resuppression, with a pooled estimate of 70.5% (95% confidence interval: 56.6% to 84.4%) resuppressed. The remaining 3 studies all reported declines in mean viral load. Delayed onset of routine viral load monitoring was associated with the emergence of drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

The clear trend of resuppression, following viral load testing and adherence support, demonstrates the utility of viral load as a tool to identify patients in need of enhanced adherence support.

Developments in CD4 and viral load monitoring in resource-limited settings

CD4 counts and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) load testing are essential components of HIV care, and making these tests available in resource-limited settings is critical to the roll-out of HIV treatment globally. Until recently, the evidence supporting the importance of laboratory monitoring in resource-limited settings was lacking, but there is now a consensus emerging that testing should become routine to ensure the longevity of treatment programs. Low-cost, point-of-care testing offers the potential to fill this role as it potentially improves all aspects of HIV care, ranging from the diagnosis and staging of HIV infection in both infants and adults to monitoring for treatment failure once antiretroviral therapy has been initiated. It is imperative for low-cost solutions to become a reality, but it is equally imperative that close scrutiny be given to each new device that hits the market to ensure they perform optimally in all settings.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment: how to buy the most 'health' when resources are limited

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To summarize recent cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that evaluate optimal treatment strategies for persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA).

RECENT FINDINGS

Efforts to attain universal coverage of current treatment guidelines (e.g., initiation at CD4 cell count <350 cells/μl) are generally very costeffective. Expansion of access beyond current guidelines will additionally improve clinical outcomes and aversion of new HIV infections; however, cost-effectiveness is more uncertain. Increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) offers greater health benefit than investing the same funds in intensive laboratory monitoring for those on ART, particularly in those settings in which universal coverage has not yet been attained. Recommended ART regimens (e.g., tenofovir) have favorable cost-effectiveness when compared with substitution of newer, more expensive agents (e.g., rilpivirine, darunavir) or substitution of older, cheaper alternatives that are more toxic (e.g., stavudine).

SUMMARY

There is increasing use of CEA to evaluate decisions regarding HIV treatment in order to buy the most 'health' with limited resources. Expansion of ART access provides substantial clinical and preventive benefit and offers favorable cost-effectiveness. Intensive laboratory monitoring may not be the highest priority in settings in which resources are constrained. Further work on the economic impact, clinical effectiveness, and feasibility of ART treatment for all (e.g., no CD4 cell initiation criteria) is needed.

Switching HIV treatment in adults based on CD4 count versus viral load monitoring: a randomized, non-inferiority trial in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Viral load (VL) is recommended for monitoring the response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) but is not routinely available in most low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of the study was to determine whether a CD4-based monitoring and switching strategy would provide a similar clinical outcome compared to the standard VL-based strategy in Thailand.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Programs for HIV Prevention and Treatment (PHPT-3) non-inferiority randomized clinical trial compared a treatment switching strategy based on CD4-only (CD4) monitoring versus viral-load (VL). Consenting participants were antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected adults (CD4 count 50-250/mm(3)) initiating non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based therapy. Randomization, stratified by site (21 public hospitals), was performed centrally after enrollment. Clinicians were unaware of the VL values of patients randomized to the CD4 arm. Participants switched to second-line combination with confirmed CD4 decline >30% from peak (within 200 cells from baseline) in the CD4 arm, or confirmed VL >400 copies/ml in the VL arm. Primary endpoint was clinical failure at 3 years, defined as death, new AIDS-defining event, or CD4 <50 cells/mm(3). The 3-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative risks of clinical failure were compared for non-inferiority with a margin of 7.4%. In the intent to treat analysis, data were censored at the date of death or at last visit. The secondary endpoints were difference in future-drug-option (FDO) score, a measure of resistance profiles, virologic and immunologic responses, and the safety and tolerance of HAART. 716 participants were randomized, 356 to VL monitoring and 360 to CD4 monitoring. At 3 years, 319 participants (90%) in VL and 326 (91%) in CD4 were alive and on follow-up. The cumulative risk of clinical failure was 8.0% (95% CI 5.6-11.4) in VL versus 7.4% (5.1-10.7) in CD4, and the upper-limit of the one-sided 95% CI of the difference was 3.4%, meeting the pre-determined non-inferiority criterion. Probability of switch for study criteria was 5.2% (3.2-8.4) in VL versus 7.5% (5.0-11.1) in CD4 (p=0.097). Median time from treatment initiation to switch was 11.7 months (7.7-19.4) in VL and 24.7 months (15.9-35.0) in CD4 (p=0.001). The median duration of viremia >400 copies/ml at switch was 7.2 months (5.8-8.0) in VL versus 15.8 months (8.5-20.4) in CD4 (p=0.002). FDO scores were not significantly different at time of switch. No adverse events related to the monitoring strategy were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3-year rates of clinical failure and loss of treatment options did not differ between strategies although the longer-term consequences of CD4 monitoring would need to be investigated. These results provide reassurance to treatment programs currently based on CD4 monitoring as VL measurement becomes more affordable and feasible in resource-limited settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.govNCT00162682 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Lives saved by expanding HIV treatment availability in resource-limited settings: the example of Haiti

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at CD4 <350 cells per microliter for HIV-infected individuals in resource-limited settings. However, funding for treatment expansion remains uncertain. We forecast the mortality impact of ART expansion alternatives in Haiti.

METHODS

We used data from Haiti to develop a country-specific model of HIV disease. The model projects the mortality, total number of HIV-infected individuals, and number and coverage (percentage of those eligible) on ART by simulating cohorts of HIV-infected individuals over 10 years. Five ART expansion scenarios, ranging from fully expanded ART (best case) to No New ART (worst case), were assessed.

RESULTS

By 2010, the model predicts 103,500 individuals living with HIV in Haiti, of whom 27,300 were estimated to receive ART. Continuing ART initiation at current rates requires increasing the number on ART to 43,300 by 2020 (56% coverage), with 89,700 deaths estimated between 2010 and 2020. The number on ART could increase by 7400 (+17.1%, best case) or decrease by 25,600 (-59.1%, worst case), resulting in 19,500 deaths averted and 9900 fewer in care awaiting ART (best versus worst case). Results are sensitive to untreated disease progression and pre-ART loss from care. Increased HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care can avert additional deaths and achieve nearly 80% ART coverage with optimal policy improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

In resource-limited settings, continued improvements in HIV treatment access will save lives. Efforts to efficiently expand ART access should remain a global priority.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa.

METHODS

Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring.

RESULTS

POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring.

CONCLUSION

The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

DESIGN

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

METHODS

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

RESULTS

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Pretreatment HIV-1 drug resistance is strongly associated with virologic failure in HIV-infected patients receiving partly active antiretroviral regimens

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa has significantly reduced mortality from AIDS. Hamers et al. explores the impact of pretreatment HIV-1 drug resistance on virologic failure, immunologic response, and acquisition of drug resistance after 1 year of first-line antiretroviral therapy by longitudinally evaluating 2579 participants with pretreatment drug resistance results from the PharmAccess African Studies to Evaluate Resistance Monitoring (PASER-M) cohort. Participants with pretreatment drug resistance who were given a treatment regimen with reduced activity to at least one prescribed drug had a significantly greater risk of virologic failure and acquired drug resistance compared with both participants without pretreatment drug resistance, and participants with pretreatment drug resistance who were prescribed fully active regimens. This paper by Hamers et al. validates the need for at least three fully active antiretroviral drugs to prevent the acquisition of drug resistance and to optimize treatment success in resource limited settings.

The clinical and economic impact of genotype testing at first-line antiretroviral therapy failure for HIV-infected patients in South Africa

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings, genotype testing at virologic failure on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) may identify patients with wild-type (WT) virus. After adherence counseling, these patients may safely and effectively continue first-line ART, thereby delaying more expensive second-line ART.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications International model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease to simulate a South African cohort of HIV-infected adults at first-line ART failure. Two strategies were examined: no genotype vs genotype, assuming availability of protease inhibitor-based second-line ART. Model inputs at first-line ART failure were mean age 38 years, mean CD4 173/µL, and WT virus prevalence 20%; genotype cost was $300 per test and delay to results, 3 months. Outcomes included life expectancy, per-person costs (2010 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (dollars per years of life saved [YLS]).

RESULTS

No genotype had a projected life expectancy of 106.1 months, which with genotype increased to 108.3 months. Per-person discounted lifetime costs were $16 360 and $16 540, respectively. Compared to no genotype, genotype was very cost-effective, by international guidance, at $900/YLS. The cost-effectiveness of genotype was sensitive to prevalence of WT virus (very cost-effective when prevalence ≥ 12%), CD4 at first-line ART failure, and ART efficacy. Genotype-associated delays in care ≥ 5 months decreased survival and made no genotype the preferred strategy. When the test cost was <$100, genotype became cost-saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Genotype resistance testing at first-line ART failure is very cost-effective in South Africa. The cost-effectiveness of this strategy will depend on prevalence of WT virus and timely response to genotype results.

Rates of emergence of HIV drug resistance in resource-limited settings: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The increasing availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved survival and quality of life for many infected with HIV, but can also engender drug resistance. This review summarizes the available information on drug resistance in adults in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

The online databases PubMed and Google Scholar, pertinent conference abstracts and references from relevant articles were searched for publications available before November 2011. Data collected after ART rollout were reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 7 studies fulfilled the criteria for the analysis of acquired drug resistance and 22 fulfilled the criteria for the analysis of transmitted drug resistance (TDR). Acquired resistance was detected in 7.2% of patients on ART for 6-11 months, 11.1% at 12-23 months, 15.0% at 24-35 months, and 20.7% at ≥ 36 months. Multi-class drug resistance increased steadily with time on ART. The overall rate of TDR in all resource-limited countries studied was 6.6% (469/7,063). Patients in countries in which ART had been available for ≥ 5 years were 1.7 × more likely to have TDR than those living in a country where ART had been available for <5 years (P<0.001). The reported prevalence of TDR was 5.7% (233/4,069) in Africa, 7.6% (160/2,094) in Asia and 8.4% (76/900) in Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

The emergence of drug resistance following access to ART in resource-limited settings resembles what was seen in resource-rich countries and highlights the need for virological monitoring for drug failure, drug resistance testing and alternative drug regimens that have proven beneficial in these resource-rich settings.

Patient- and population-level health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability

Background

In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy (ART) after HIV treatment failure was modeled to highlight trade-offs among competing policy goals of optimizing individual and population health outcomes.

Methods

In settings with two available ART regimens, we assessed two strategies: (1) continue ART after second-line failure (Status Quo) and (2) discontinue ART after second-line failure (Alternative). A computer model simulated outcomes for a single cohort of newly detected, HIV-infected individuals. Projections were fed into a population-level model allowing multiple cohorts to compete for ART with constraints on treatment capacity. In the Alternative strategy, discontinuation of second-line ART occurred upon detection of antiretroviral failure, specified by WHO guidelines. Those discontinuing failed ART experienced an increased risk of AIDS-related mortality compared to those continuing ART.

Results

At the population level, the Alternative strategy increased the mean number initiating ART annually by 1,100 individuals (+18.7%) to 6,980 compared to the Status Quo. More individuals initiating ART under the Alternative strategy increased total life-years by 15,000 (+2.8%) to 555,000, compared to the Status Quo. Although more individuals received treatment under the Alternative strategy, life expectancy for those treated decreased by 0.7 years (−8.0%) to 8.1 years compared to the Status Quo. In a cohort of treated patients only, 600 more individuals (+27.1%) died by 5 years under the Alternative strategy compared to the Status Quo. Results were sensitive to the timing of detection of ART failure, number of ART regimens, and treatment capacity. Although we believe the results robust in the short-term, this analysis reflects settings where HIV case detection occurs late in the disease course and treatment capacity and the incidence of newly detected patients are stable.

Conclusions

In settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability, trade-offs emerge between maximizing outcomes for individual patients already on treatment and ensuring access to treatment for all people who may benefit. While individuals may derive some benefit from ART even after virologic failure, the aggregate public health benefit is maximized by providing effective therapy to the greatest number of people. These trade-offs should be explicit and transparent in antiretroviral policy decisions.

HIV treatment and care in resource-constrained environments: challenges for the next decade

Many successes have been achieved in HIV care in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC): increased number of HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART), wide decentralization, reduction in morbidity and mortality and accessibility to cheapest drugs. However, these successes should not hide existing failures and difficulties. In this paper, we underline several key challenges. First, ensure long-term financing, increase available resources, in order to meet the increasing needs, and redistribute the overall budget in a concerted way amongst donors. Second, increase ART coverage and treat the many eligible patients who have not yet started ART. Competition amongst countries is expected to become a strong driving force in encouraging the least efficient to join better performing countries. Third, decrease early mortality on ART, by improving access to prevention, case-finding and treatment of tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases and by getting people to start ART much earlier. Fourth, move on from WHO 2006 to WHO 2010 guidelines. Raising the cut-off point for starting ART to 350 CD4/mm³ needs changing paradigm, adopting opt-out approach, facilitating pro-active testing, facilitating task shifting and increasing staff recruitments. Phasing out stavudine needs acting for a drastic reduction in the costs of other drugs. Scaling up routine viral load needs a mobilization for lower prices of reagents and equipments, as well as efforts in relation to point-of-care automation and to maintenance. The latter is a key step to boost the utilization of second-line regimens, which are currently dramatically under prescribed. Finally, other challenges are to reduce lost-to-follow-up rates; manage lifelong treatment and care for long-term morbidity, including drug toxicity, residual AIDS and HIV-non-AIDS morbidity and aging-related morbidity; and be able to face unforeseen events such as socio-political and military crisis. An old African proverb states that the growth of a deep-rooted tree cannot be stopped. Our tree is well rooted in existing field experience and is, therefore, expected to grow. In order for us to let it grow, long-term cost-effectiveness approach and life-saving evidence-based programming should replace short-term budgeting approach.

Could early antiretroviral therapy entail more risks than benefits in sub-Saharan African HIV-infected adults? A model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in all HIV-infected adults, regardless of CD4⁺ T-cell count, is a proposed strategy for reducing HIV transmission. We investigated the conditions under which starting ART early could entail more risks than benefits for patients with high CD4⁺ T-cell counts.

METHODS

We used a simulation model to compare ART initiation upon entry to care ('immediate ART') to initiation at CD4⁺ T-cell count ≤ 350 cells/μl ('WHO 2010 ART') in African adults with CD4⁺ T-cell counts >500 cells/μl. We varied inputs to determine the combination of parameters (population characteristics, conditions of care, treatment outcomes) that would result in higher 15-year mortality with immediate ART.

RESULTS

The 15-year mortality was 56.7% for WHO 2010 ART and 51.8% for immediate ART. In one-way sensitivity analysis, lower 15-year mortality was consistently achieved with immediate ART unless the rate of fatal ART toxicity was >1.0/100 person-years, the rate of withdrawal from care was >1.2-fold higher or the rate of ART failure due to poor adherence was >4.3-fold higher on immediate than on WHO 2010 ART. In multi-way sensitivity analysis, immediate ART led to higher mortality when moderate rates of fatal ART toxicity (0.25/100 person-years) were combined with rates of withdrawal from care >1.1-fold higher and rates of treatment failure >2.1-fold higher on immediate than on WHO 2010 ART.

CONCLUSIONS

In sub-Saharan Africa, ART initiation at entry into care would improve long-term survival of patients with high CD4⁺ T-cell counts, unless it is associated with increased withdrawal from care and decreased adherence. In early ART trials, a focus on retention and adherence will be crucial.

Antiretroviral therapy in Indian setting: when & what to start with, when & what to switch to?

With the rapid scale up of antiretroviral therapy, there is a dramatic decline in HIV related morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Several new safe antiretroviral, and newer class of drugs and monitoring assays are developed recently. As a result the treatment guideline for the management of HIV disease continue to change. This review focuses on evolving science on Indian policy - antiretroviral therapy initiation, which drugs to start with, when to change the initial regimen and what to change.

Treatment outcomes of patients on second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A growing proportion of patients on antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings have switched to second-line regimens. We carried out a systematic review in order to summarize reported rates and reasons for virological failure among people on second-line therapy in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

Two reviewers independently searched four databases and three conference websites. Full text articles were screened and data extracted using a standardized data extraction form.

RESULTS

We retrieved 5812 citations, of which 19 studies reporting second-line failure rates in 2035 patients across low-income and middle-income countries were eligible for inclusion. The cumulative pooled proportion of adult patients failing virologically was 21.8, 23.1, 26.7 and 38.0% at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively. Most studies did not report adequate information to allow discrimination between drug resistance and poor adherence as reasons for virological failure, but for those that did poor adherence appeared to be the main driver of virological failure. Mortality on second-line was low across all time points.

CONCLUSION

Rates of virological failure on second-line therapy are high in resource-limited settings and associated with duration of exposure to previous drug regimens and poor adherence. The main concern appears to be poor adherence, rather than drug resistance, from the limited number of studies accessing both factors. Access to treatment options beyond second-line remains limited and, therefore, a cause for a concern for those patients in whom drug resistance is the identified cause of virological failure.

A model for reduced HIV-1 viral load monitoring in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries is rarely used because of high costs. Reducing the frequency of monitoring may make it financially feasible.

METHODS

We modeled three testing schemes: reduced viral load monitoring (RVLM) with CD4 count at baseline and viral load testing at 6, 36, and 60 months; United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS) Treatment Guidelines; and World Health Organization (WHO) Guidelines using a cohort of 313 HIV-infected patients using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Median time to detection of antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure using RVLM was 147 days; using US DHHS, it was 115 days; and using WHO guidelines, it was 1110 days. Median time for the development of first thymidine analog mutation was 594 days. The cost of RVLM was significantly lower than US DHHS.

CONCLUSIONS

RVLM detected failure significantly sooner than CD4 count monitoring alone at a lower cost than US DHHS monitoring. RVLM is a potentially effective method of monitoring ART in resource-limited settings.

Cost effectiveness analysis of clinically driven versus routine laboratory monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in Uganda and Zimbabwe

Background

Despite funding constraints for treatment programmes in Africa, the costs and economic consequences of routine laboratory monitoring for efficacy and toxicity of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have rarely been evaluated.

Methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in the DART trial (ISRCTN13968779). Adults in Uganda/Zimbabwe starting ART were randomised to clinically-driven monitoring (CDM) or laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM); individual patient data on healthcare resource utilisation and outcomes were valued with primary economic costs and utilities. Total costs of first/second-line ART, routine 12-weekly CD4 and biochemistry/haematology tests, additional diagnostic investigations, clinic visits, concomitant medications and hospitalisations were considered from the public healthcare sector perspective. A Markov model was used to extrapolate costs and benefits 20 years beyond the trial.

Results

3316 (1660LCM;1656CDM) symptomatic, immunosuppressed ART-naive adults (median (IQR) age 37 (32,42); CD4 86 (31,139) cells/mm³) were followed for median 4.9 years. LCM had a mean 0.112 year (41 days) survival benefit at an additional mean cost of $765 [95%CI:685,845], translating into an adjusted incremental cost of $7386 [3277,dominated] per life-year gained and $7793 [4442,39179] per quality-adjusted life year gained. Routine toxicity tests were prominent cost-drivers and had no benefit. With 12-weekly CD4 monitoring from year 2 on ART, low-cost second-line ART, but without toxicity monitoring, CD4 test costs need to fall below $3.78 to become cost-effective (<3xper-capita GDP, following WHO benchmarks). CD4 monitoring at current costs as undertaken in DART was not cost-effective in the long-term.

Conclusions

There is no rationale for routine toxicity monitoring, which did not affect outcomes and was costly. Even though beneficial, there is little justification for routine 12-weekly CD4 monitoring of ART at current test costs in low-income African countries. CD4 monitoring, restricted to the second year on ART onwards, could be cost-effective with lower cost second-line therapy and development of a cheaper, ideally point-of-care, CD4 test.

Regional differences in predictive accuracy of WHO immunologic failure criteria

We compared the performance of the WHO immunologic criteria for treatment failure among Uganda and American patients. Antiretroviral treatment-naive patients with a CD4 T-cell count less than 200 cells/μl or AIDS at enrollment on a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors-based regimen for more than 1 year were selected. For all criteria, the positive predictive value was significantly higher in the American compared with the Ugandan patients. Population-specific guidelines should be developed using large African cohorts to identify more specific and sensitive criteria.

Challenges in implementing HIV laboratory monitoring in resource-constrained settings: how to do more with less

Laboratory monitoring for HIV disease in resource-limited settings has now become one of the key challenges for antiretroviral treatment (ART) access and success, as emphasized by the 2010 revised WHO guidelines for ART in resource-limited settings. Thus, the most common method for initiating ART, and monitoring treatment response in resource-constrained environments is the measurement of CD4 T-cell count. Affordable CD4 T-cell counting has gradually been made possible by using simple, compact and robust, low-cost, new-generation cytometers, operating as single-platform volumetric instruments. Several cost-effective point-of-care CD4 T-cell testing options are also already on the market, in order to improve access to CD4 T-cell monitoring, especially for rural patients, and to reduce loss-to-follow-up of patients. In addition, HIV RNA viral load measurement is becoming increasingly important, mainly for a systematic confirmation of first-line ART failure before switching to second-line treatment to avoid belated as well as premature therapeutic decisions and their potentially negative consequences. Viral load testing should now be considered as the standard of care for therapeutic failure in all resource-limited settings. However, the measurement of HIV viral load remains a centralized marker, carried out in a limited number of reference laboratories. Finally, the costs of second-line ART regimens, rather than the laboratory test costs themselves, currently constitute the primary determinant of the total cost in ART switching. Laboratory monitoring strategies may become more attractive as price negotiations render second-line ART regimens less expensive worldwide.

CD4 cell count and viral load monitoring in patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy in Uganda: cost effectiveness study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the cost and cost effectiveness of quarterly CD4 cell count and viral load monitoring among patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART).

DESIGN

Cost effectiveness study.

SETTING

A randomised trial in a home based ART programme in Tororo, Uganda.

PARTICIPANTS

People with HIV who were members of the AIDS Support Organisation and had CD4 cell counts <250 × 10(6) cells/L or World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes calculated for the study period and projected 15 years into the future included costs, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER; $ per DALY averted). Cost inputs were based on the trial and other sources. Clinical inputs derived from the trial; in the base case, we assumed that point estimates reflected true differences even if non-significant. We conducted univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

INTERVENTIONS

Three monitoring strategies: clinical monitoring with quarterly CD4 cell counts and viral load measurement (clinical/CD4/viral load); clinical monitoring and quarterly CD4 counts (clinical/CD4); and clinical monitoring alone.

RESULTS

With the intention to treat (ITT) results per 100 individuals starting ART, we found that clinical/CD4 monitoring compared with clinical monitoring alone increases costs by $20,458 (£12,780, €14,707) and averts 117.3 DALYs (ICER = $174 per DALY). Clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring compared with clinical/CD4 monitoring adds $142,458, and averts 27.5 DALYs ($5181 per DALY). The superior ICER for clinical/CD4 monitoring is robust to uncertainties in input values, and that strategy is dominant (less expensive and more effective) compared with clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring in one quarter of simulations. If clinical inputs are based on the as treated analysis starting at 90 days (after laboratory monitoring was initiated), then clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring is dominated by other strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this trial, compared with clinical monitoring alone, monitoring of routine CD4 cell count is considerably more cost effective than additionally including routine viral load testing in the monitoring strategy and is more cost effective than ART.

Treatment switching in South Indian patients on HAART: what are the predictors and consequences?

Early identification and management of treatment failure on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is crucial in maintaining a sustained response to therapy in HIV infection. However, HIV viral load (VL) and resistance testing, and second-line HAART regimens, are unaffordable to many patients in India, leaving them with limited treatment options. Predictors and reasons for antiretroviral switching, therefore, are likely to differ in settings of varying resources. A one-year, observational study of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy was conducted in a private, non-profit hospital in Bangalore. This paper examines the predictors and consequences of antiretroviral treatment switching in this setting and explores reasons for switching in a subset of patients. Data on demographics, drug regimens, adherence, and physical and psychosocial outcomes were collected quarterly. Tests of VL and CD4 cell counts were performed every six months. One-third of the patients switched therapy during the study period. Baseline predictors of switching included lower CD4 cell counts and more physical symptoms. Contrary to studies in other settings, a high VL did not predict treatment switching, and only a minority of those experiencing drug failure were switched to second-line regimens. Both groups (switchers and non-switchers) improved significantly over time with respect to CD4 counts and psychological well-being, and showed a reduction in physical and depressive symptoms. Any differences between the groups were no longer significant at the end of the study, once we controlled for baseline levels. Clinical, policy, and research implications of these findings are discussed within the context of resource-limited settings.

Modelling the impact of treatment with individual antiretrovirals

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this paper is to review the recent literature on HIV mathematical models that evaluate the effect of antiretroviral treatment on mortality, morbidity, HIV and other key outcomes. The focus of our attention is models which explicitly model specific effects of individual antiretroviral drugs.

RECENT FINDINGS

The number of studies that use mathematical models to evaluate the impact of antiretroviral drugs as a treatment or prevention strategy is increasing.Many mathematical models are deterministic compartmental models, and do not have the level of detail of specific effects of individual drugs. However, models that include specific antiretroviral drugs have been increasingly employed to assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention interventions, to evaluate benefits and harms (toxicities, side-effects, resistance development) of different regimens and different intervention timing and to predict long-term outcomes of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that are not usually measured in the time frame of a trial.

SUMMARY

The number of models that consider specific antiretroviral drugs, with their own peculiarities, is limited. This factor is particularly the case for dynamic individual-based stochastic models. In order to address some research questions it is necessary to accurately take into consideration implications of toxicities, side-effects, and resistance acquisition, and hence to model specific drugs or at least specific drug classes.

Monitoring of highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV infection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries have routine laboratory tests to monitor ART efficacy/toxicity. We review studies describing the outcomes and costs of different monitoring approaches, predominantly in low-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

CD4 cell counts, HIV RNA viral load and clinical events are frequently discordant; viral load suppression occurs with WHO-defined CD4 failure and, as expected, viral load failure often occurs before CD4 failure. Routine CD4 monitoring provides small but significant mortality/morbidity benefits over clinical monitoring, but, at current prices, is not yet cost-effective in many sub-Saharan African countries. Viral load monitoring is less cost-effective with modelling studies reporting variable results. More research into point-of-care tests, methods for targeting monitoring and thresholds for defining failure is needed. Most laboratory monitoring for toxicity is neither effective nor cost-effective. In terms of models for delivery of care, task-shifting with nurse-led and decentralized care appear as effective as doctor-led or centralized care.

SUMMARY

Recent studies have improved the evidence base for monitoring on ART. Future research to increase cost-effectiveness by better targeting of monitoring and/or evaluating implementation of less costly point-of-care tests will contribute to long-term success of ART while continuing to increase ART coverage.

Cost analysis of centralized viral load testing for antiretroviral therapy monitoring in Nicaragua, a low-HIV prevalence, low-resource setting

Background

HIV viral load testing as a component of antiretroviral therapy monitoring is costly. Understanding the full costs and the major sources of inefficiency associated with viral load testing is critical for optimizing the systems and technologies that support the testing process. The objective of our study was to estimate the costs associated with viral load testing performed for antiretroviral therapy monitoring to both patients and the public healthcare system in a low-HIV prevalence, low-resource country.

Methods

A detailed cost analysis was performed to understand the costs involved in each step of performing a viral load test in Nicaragua, from initial specimen collection to communication of the test results to each patient's healthcare provider. Data were compiled and cross referenced from multiple information sources: laboratory records, regional surveillance centre records, and scheduled interviews with the key healthcare providers responsible for HIV patient care in five regions of the country.

Results

The total average cost of performing a viral load test in Nicaragua varied by region, ranging from US$99.01 to US$124.58, the majority of which was at the laboratory level: $88.73 to $97.15 per specimen, depending on batch size. The average cost to clinics at which specimens were collected ranged from $3.31 to $20.92, depending on the region. The average cost per patient for transportation, food, lodging and lost income ranged from $3.70 to $14.93.

Conclusions

The quantitative viral load test remains the single most expensive component of the process. For the patient, the distance of his or her residence from the specimen collection site is a large determinant of cost. Importantly, the efficiency of results reporting has a large impact on the cost per result delivered to the clinician and utility of the result for patient monitoring. Detailed cost analysis can identify opportunities for removing barriers to effective antiretroviral therapy monitoring programmes in limited-resource countries with low HIV prevalence.