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Mohammad Ismail A, Forssten MP, Hildebrand F, Sarani B, Ioannidis I, Cao Y, Ribeiro MAF, Mohseni S. Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2024; 50:523-530. [PMID: 38170276 PMCID: PMC11035445 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-023-02413-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries. METHODS All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding. RESULTS A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score. CONCLUSION The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Maximilian Peter Forssten
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Frank Hildebrand
- Department of Orthopedics, Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, University Hospital RWTH Aachen, Pauwelsstrasse 30, 52074, Aachen, Germany
| | - Babak Sarani
- Center of Trauma and Critical Care, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Ioannis Ioannidis
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Marcelo A F Ribeiro
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Khalifa University and Gulf Medical University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden.
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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Oh AR, Park J, Lee JH, Cha D, Choi DC, Yang K, Ahn J, Sung JD, Park IH, Lee SH. Risk of age older than 65 years for 30-day cardiac complication may be comparable to low-to-moderate risk according to revised cardiac risk index in non-cardiac surgery. Sci Rep 2023; 13:15625. [PMID: 37730864 PMCID: PMC10511497 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-42460-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) is widely used for surgical patients without containing age as a risk factor. We investigated age older than 65 years with respect to low-to-moderate risk of RCRI. From January 2011 to June 2019, a total of 203,787 consecutive adult patients underwent non-cardiac surgery at our institution. After excluding high-risk patients defined as RCRI score > 2, we stratified the patients into four groups according to RCRI and age (A: age < 65 with RCRI < 2, [n = 148,288], B: age ≥ 65 with RCRI < 2, [n = 42,841], C: age < 65 with RCRI = 2, [n = 5,271], and D: age ≥ 65 with RCRI = 2, [n = 5,698]). Incidence of major cardiac complication defined as a composite of cardiac death, cardiac arrest and myocardial infarction was compared. After excluding 1,689 patients with high risk (defined as RCRI score > 2), 202,098 patients were enrolled. The incidence with 95% confidence interval of major cardiac complication for A, B, C, and D groups was 0.3% (0.2-0.3), 1.1% (1.0-1.2), 1.8% (1.6-1.8), and 3.1% (2.6-3.6), respectively. In a direct comparison between B and C groups, old patients with RCRI < 2 showed a significantly lower risk compared to younger patients with RCRI = 2 (odd ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.78; p < 0.001). In non-cardiac surgery, the risk of age older than 65 years was shown to be comparable with low-to-moderate risk according to RCRI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ah Ran Oh
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Kangwon National University Hospital, Chuncheon, Korea
| | - Jungchan Park
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Ajou University Graduate School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Jong-Hwan Lee
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Dahye Cha
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Dan-Cheong Choi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Kwangmo Yang
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Ajou University Graduate School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
- Center for Health Promotion, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Joonghyun Ahn
- Statistics and Data Center, Research Institute for Future Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ji Dong Sung
- Rehabilitation and Prevention Center, Heart Vascular Stroke Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - I Hyun Park
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Seung-Hwa Lee
- Wiltse Memorial Hospital, 437, Gyeongsu-daero, Paldal-gu, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
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A nationwide analysis on the interaction between frailty and beta-blocker therapy in hip fracture patients. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2023; 49:1485-1497. [PMID: 36633610 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-023-02219-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Hip fracture patients, who are often frail, continue to be a challenge for healthcare systems with a high postoperative mortality rate. While beta-blocker therapy (BBt) has shown a strong association with reduced postoperative mortality, its effect in frail patients has yet to be determined. This study's aim is to investigate how frailty, measured using the Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS), modifies the effect of preadmission beta-blocker therapy on mortality in hip fracture patients. METHODS This retrospective register-based study included all adult patients in Sweden who suffered a traumatic hip fracture and subsequently underwent surgery between 2008 and 2017. Treatment effect was evaluated using the absolute risk reduction (ARR) in 30-day postoperative mortality when comparing patients with (BBt+) and without (BBt-) ongoing BBt. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to reduce potential confounding when examining the treatment effect. Patients were stratified based on their OFS (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) and the treatment effect was also assessed within each stratum. RESULTS A total of 127,305 patients were included, of whom 39% had BBt. When IPTW was performed, there were no residual differences in observed baseline characteristics between the BBt+ and BBt- groups, across all strata. This analysis found that there was a stepwise increase in the ARRs for each additional point on the OFS. Non-frail BBt+ patients (OFS 0) exhibited an ARR of 2.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-2.4%, p < 0.001], while the most frail BBt+ patients (OFS 5) had an ARR of 24% [95% CI 18-30%, p < 0.001], compared to BBt- patients within the same stratum. CONCLUSION Beta-blocker therapy is associated with a reduced risk of 30-day postoperative mortality in frail hip fracture patients, with a greater effect being observed with higher Orthopedic Hip Frailty Scores.
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Bass GA, Duffy CC, Kaplan LJ, Sarani B, Martin ND, Ismail AM, Cao Y, Forssten MP, Mohseni S. The revised cardiac risk index is associated with morbidity and mortality independent of injury severity in elderly patients with rib fractures. Injury 2023; 54:56-62. [PMID: 36402584 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2022.11.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Revised: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk factors for mortality and in-hospital morbidity among geriatric patients with traumatic rib fractures remain unclear. Such patients are often frail and demonstrate a high comorbidity burden. Moreover, outcomes anticipated by current rubrics may reflect the influence of multisystem injury or surgery, and thus not apply to isolated injuries in geriatric patients. We hypothesized that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) may assist in risk-stratifying geriatric patients following rib fracture. METHODS All geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) with a conservatively managed rib fracture owing to an isolated thoracic injury (thorax AIS ≥1), in the 2013-2019 TQIP database were assessed including demographics and outcomes. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital morbidity as well as mortality was analyzed using Poisson regression models while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS 96,750 geriatric patients sustained rib fractures. Compared to those with RCRI 0, patients with an RCRI score of 1 had a 16% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted incidence rate ratio (adj-IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 (1.02-1.32), p=0.020]. An RCRI score of 2 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.44-2.06), p<0.001] or ≥3 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 3.07 (2.31-4.09), p<0.001] was associated with an even greater mortality risk. Those with an increased RCRI also exhibited a higher incidence of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, stroke, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Geriatric patients with rib fractures and an RCRI ≥1 represent a vulnerable and high-risk group. This index may inform the decision to admit for inpatient care and can also guide patient and family counseling as well as computer-based decision-support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gary Alan Bass
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden; Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (LDI), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Center for Peri-Operative Outcomes Research and Transformation (CPORT), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | - Caoimhe C Duffy
- Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (LDI), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Center for Peri-Operative Outcomes Research and Transformation (CPORT), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | - Lewis J Kaplan
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Corporal Michael Cresenscz Veterans Affairs Medical Center (CMCVAMC), Philadelphia, USA
| | - Babak Sarani
- Center for Trauma and Critical Care, George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Washington D.C., USA
| | - Niels D Martin
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | | | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | | | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden; Division of Trauma & Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.
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Forssten MP, Mohammad Ismail A, Ioannidis I, Wretenberg P, Borg T, Cao Y, Ribeiro MAF, Mohseni S. The mortality burden of frailty in hip fracture patients: a nationwide retrospective study of cause-specific mortality. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2022; 49:1467-1475. [PMID: 36571633 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-022-02204-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Frailty is a condition characterized by a reduced ability to adapt to external stressors because of a reduced physiologic reserve, which contributes to the high risk of postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. This study aims to investigate how frailty is associated with the specific causes of mortality in hip fracture patients. METHODS All adult patients in Sweden who suffered a traumatic hip fracture and underwent surgery between 2008 and 2017 were eligible for inclusion. The Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS) was used to classify patients as non-frail (OFS 0), pre-frail (OFS 1), and frail (OFS ≥ 2). The association between the degree of frailty and both all-cause and cause-specific mortality was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors and presented using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential sources of confounding. RESULTS After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 127,305 patients remained for further analysis. 23.9% of patients were non-frail, 27.7% were pre-frail, and 48.3% were frail. Frail patients exhibited a 4 times as high risk of all-cause mortality 30 days [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.80 (3.36-4.30), p < 0.001] and 90 days postoperatively [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.88 (3.56-4.23), p < 0.001] as non-frail patients. Of the primary causes of 30-day mortality, frailty was associated with a tripling in the risk of cardiovascular [adj. IRR (95% CI): 3.24 (2.64-3.99), p < 0.001] and respiratory mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 2.60 (1.96-3.45), p < 0.001] as well as a five-fold increase in the risk of multiorgan failure [adj. IRR (95% CI): 4.99 (3.95-6.32), p < 0.001]. CONCLUSION Frailty is associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality at 30 and 90 days postoperatively. Across both timepoints, cardiovascular and respiratory events along with multiorgan failure were the most prevalent causes of mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ioannis Ioannidis
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Per Wretenberg
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Tomas Borg
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Marcelo A F Ribeiro
- Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.,Trauma, Burns, Critical Care and Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City-Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden. .,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Orebro, Sweden.
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Mohammad Ismail A, Forssten MP, Bass GA, Trivedi DJ, Ekestubbe L, Ioannidis I, Duffy CC, Peden CJ, Mohseni S. Mode of anesthesia is not associated with outcomes following emergency hip fracture surgery: a population-level cohort study. Trauma Surg Acute Care Open 2022; 7:e000957. [PMID: 36148316 PMCID: PMC9486374 DOI: 10.1136/tsaco-2022-000957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Hip fractures often occur in frail patients with several comorbidities. In those undergoing emergency surgery, determining the optimal anesthesia modality may be challenging, with equipoise concerning outcomes following either spinal or general anesthesia. In this study, we investigated the association between mode of anesthesia and postoperative morbidity and mortality with subgroup analyses. Methods This is a retrospective study using all consecutive adult patients who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Orebro County, Sweden, between 2013 and 2017. Patients were extracted from the Swedish National Hip Fracture Registry, and their electronic medical records were reviewed. The association between the type of anesthesia and 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, as well as in-hospital severe complications (Clavien-Dindo classification ≥3a), was analyzed using Poisson regression models with robust SEs, while the association with 1-year mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. All analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. Results A total of 2437 hip fracture cases were included in the study, of whom 60% received spinal anesthesia. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted incident rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI): 0.99 (0.72 to 1.36), p=0.952), 90-day postoperative mortality (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.88 (0.70 to 1.11), p=0.281), 1-year postoperative mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI): 0.98 (0.83 to 1.15), p=0.773), or in-hospital severe complications (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.24 (0.85 to 1.82), p=0.273), when comparing general and spinal anesthesia. Conclusions Mode of anesthesia during emergency hip fracture surgery was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative mortality or in-hospital severe complications in the study population or any of the investigated subgroups. Level of evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management, level III
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Gary Alan Bass
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Dhanisha Jayesh Trivedi
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Lovisa Ekestubbe
- Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ioannis Ioannidis
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.,School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Caoimhe C Duffy
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Carol J Peden
- Department of Clinical Anesthesiology, University of Southern California Keck School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California, USA.,Department of Anesthesiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
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Dementia is a surrogate for frailty in hip fracture mortality prediction. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2022; 48:4157-4167. [PMID: 35355091 PMCID: PMC9532301 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-022-01960-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Purpose Among hip fracture patients both dementia and frailty are particularly prevalent. The aim of the current study was to determine if dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty, or if it confers additional information as a comorbidity when predicting postoperative mortality after a hip fracture. Methods All adult patients who suffered a traumatic hip fracture in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were considered for inclusion. Pathological fractures, non-operatively treated fractures, reoperations, and patients missing data were excluded. Logistic regression (LR) models were fitted, one including and one excluding measurements of frailty, with postoperative mortality as the response variable. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day postoperative mortality. The relative importance for all variables was determined using the permutation importance. New LR models were constructed using the top ten most important variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of these models. Results 121,305 patients were included in the study. Initially, dementia was among the top ten most important variables for predicting 30-day mortality. When measurements of frailty were included, dementia was replaced in relative importance by the ability to walk alone outdoors and institutionalization. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of the models fitted using the top ten most important variables when comparing those that included [AUC for 30-day mortality (95% CI): 0.82 (0.81–0.82)] and excluded [AUC for 30-day mortality (95% CI): 0.81 (0.80–0.81)] measurements of frailty. Conclusion Dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty when predicting mortality up to one year after hip fracture surgery. The presence of dementia in a patient without frailty does not appreciably contribute to the prediction of postoperative mortality. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00068-022-01960-9.
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Forssten MP, Bass GA, Scheufler KM, Mohammad Ismail A, Cao Y, Martin ND, Sarani B, Mohseni S. Mortality risk stratification in isolated severe traumatic brain injury using the revised cardiac risk index. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2021; 48:4481-4488. [PMID: 34839374 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-021-01841-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Traumatic brain injury (TBI) continues to be a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. As cardiovascular events are among the most common extracranial causes of death after a severe TBI, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) could potentially aid in the risk stratification of this patient population. This investigation aimed to determine the association between the RCRI and in-hospital deaths among isolated severe TBI patients. METHODS All adult patients registered in the TQIP database between 2013 and 2017 who suffered an isolated severe TBI, defined as a head AIS ≥ 3 with an AIS ≤ 1 in all other body regions, were included. Patients were excluded if they had a head AIS of 6. The association between different RCRI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) and in-hospital mortality was analyzed using a Poisson regression model with robust standard errors while adjusting for potential confounders, with RCRI 0 as the reference. RESULTS 259,399 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. RCRI 2 was associated with a 6% increase in mortality risk [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.027], RCRI 3 was associated with a 17% increased risk of mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.17 (1.05-1.31), p = 0.004], and RCRI ≥ 4 was associated with a 46% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR(95% CI) 1.46 (1.11-1.90), p = 0.006], compared to RCRI 0. CONCLUSION An elevated RCRI ≥ 2 is significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality among patients with an isolated severe traumatic brain injury. The simplicity and bedside applicability of the index makes it an attractive choice for risk stratification in this patient population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maximilian Peter Forssten
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Örebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 70185, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Gary Alan Bass
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Örebro, Sweden.,Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
| | - Kai-Michael Scheufler
- Department of Neurosurgery, Orebro University Hospital, 70185, Örebro, Sweden.,Medical School, Heinrich-Heine University Dusseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Örebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 70185, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Niels Douglas Martin
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
| | - Babak Sarani
- Division of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81, Örebro, Sweden. .,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 70185, Örebro, Sweden.
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Wang Z, Chen X, Wu Y, Jiang W, Yang L, Wang H, Liu S, Liu Y. Admission Resting Heart Rate as an Independent Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture. Int J Gen Med 2021; 14:7699-7706. [PMID: 34764683 PMCID: PMC8575447 DOI: 10.2147/ijgm.s333971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose To investigate the relationship between admission resting heart rate (RHR) and all-cause mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture. Methods A retrospective cohort study with 837 patients based on the established hip fracture database was conducted. Admission RHR was measured via electrocardiogram, and patients were grouped by the median RHR value (beats per minute, bpm). The main outcomes were 1-year and total all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline were used to assess the relationship between RHR and mortality. Sensitivity analyses were further performed to determine whether the results were stable. Results The mean and median RHR were 82.3 and 80.0 bpm, respectively. After a median follow-up of 31.8 months, the 1-year and total all-cause mortality were 17.6% and 31.2%. Multivariable Cox analyses showed that high RHR was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality (HR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08–2.13; p = 0.016), and total mortality (HR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.12–1.85; p = 0.005). For each 10 bpm increase in RHR, the risk of 1-year death increased by 23.0% (HR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09–1.39; p = 0.001), and total death increased by 21.0% (HR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09–1.34; p < 0.001). A typical J-shaped curve was observed in the restricted cubic spline for the association between RHR and 1-year mortality, with the lowest mortality risk at 70 bpm. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar findings. Conclusion An increase in RHR was independently associated with all-cause mortality, and may be a useful prognostic predictor for elderly patients with hip fracture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhicong Wang
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Xi Chen
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuxuan Wu
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Wei Jiang
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Ling Yang
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong Wang
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Shuping Liu
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuehong Liu
- Orthopaedic Center of Deyang City, Department of Orthopedics, Deyang People's Hospital, Deyang, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
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Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Hip Fracture Surgery: An Evaluation of Multiple Machine Learning Approaches. J Pers Med 2021; 11:jpm11080727. [PMID: 34442370 PMCID: PMC8401745 DOI: 10.3390/jpm11080727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 07/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Postoperative death within 1 year following hip fracture surgery is reported to be up to 27%. In the current study, we benchmarked the predictive precision and accuracy of the algorithms support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayes classifier (NB), and random forest classifier (RF) against logistic regression (LR) in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients as well as assessed the relative importance of the variables included in the LR model. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden, between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2017 were included in the study. Patients with pathological fractures and non-operatively managed hip fractures, as well as those who died within 30 days after surgery, were excluded from the analysis. A LR model with an elastic net regularization were fitted and compared to NB, SVM, and RF. The relative importance of the variables in the LR model was then evaluated using the permutation importance. The LR model including all the variables demonstrated an acceptable predictive ability on both the training and test datasets for predicting one-year postoperative mortality (Area under the curve (AUC) = 0.74 and 0.74 respectively). NB, SVM, and RF tended to over-predict the mortality, particularly NB and SVM algorithms. In contrast, LR only over-predicted mortality when the predicted probability of mortality was larger than 0.7. The LR algorithm outperformed the other three algorithms in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. The most important predictors of 1-year mortality were the presence of a metastatic carcinoma, American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA) classification, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≤ 4, age, dementia, congestive heart failure, hypertension, surgery using pins/screws, and chronic kidney disease.
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