Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

Shifts in mycorrhizal types of fungi and plants in response to fertilisation, warming and herbivory in a tundra grassland

Climate warming is severely affecting high-latitude regions. In the Arctic tundra, it may lead to enhanced soil nutrient availability and interact with simultaneous changes in grazing pressure. It is presently unknown how these concurrently occurring global change drivers affect the root-associated fungal communities, particularly mycorrhizal fungi, and whether changes coincide with shifts in plant mycorrhizal types. We investigated changes in root-associated fungal communities and mycorrhizal types of the plant community in a 10-yr factorial experiment with warming, fertilisation and grazing exclusion in a Finnish tundra grassland. The strongest determinant of the root-associated fungal community was fertilisation, which consistently increased potential plant pathogen abundance and had contrasting effects on the different mycorrhizal fungal types, contingent on other treatments. Plant mycorrhizal types went through pronounced shifts, with warming favouring ecto- and ericoid mycorrhiza but not under fertilisation and grazing exclusion. Combination of all treatments resulted in dominance by arbuscular mycorrhizal plants. However, shifts in plant mycorrhizal types vs fungi were mostly but not always aligned in their magnitude and direction. Our results show that our ability to predict shifts in symbiotic and antagonistic fungal communities depend on simultaneous consideration of multiple global change factors that jointly alter plant and fungal communities.

Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking

Arctic precipitation in the form of rain is forecast to become more prevalent in a warmer world but with seasonal and interannual changes modulated by natural modes of variability. Experiencing rapid hydroclimatic changes in the Arctic, Svalbard serves as an ideal study location due to its exposure to oceanic and atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. Here we use climate data from paleoproxies, observations, and a climate model to demonstrate that wet and warm extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to the presence of atmospheric blocking regimes over Scandinavia and the Ural mountain region. Rainfall episodes lead to the deposition of coarse sediment particles and high levels of calcium in Linnévatnet, a lake in southwest Svalbard, with the coarsest sediments consistently deposited during atmospheric blocking events. A unique annually resolved sediment record from Linnévatnet confirms that this linkage has been persistent over the past 2000 years. Our record also shows that a millennial-scale decline in Svalbard precipitation ended around the middle of the 19th century, followed by several unprecedented extreme events in recent years. As warming continues and sea ice recedes, future Svalbard floods will become more intense during episodes of Scandinavian and Ural blocking.

Cathemerality: a key temporal niche

Given the marked variation in abiotic and biotic conditions between day and night, many species specialise their physical activity to being diurnal or nocturnal, and it was long thought that these strategies were commonly fairly fixed and invariant. The term 'cathemeral', was coined in 1987, when Tattersall noted activity in a Madagascan primate during the hours of both daylight and darkness. Initially thought to be rare, cathemerality is now known to be a quite widespread form of time partitioning amongst arthropods, fish, birds, and mammals. Herein we provide a synthesis of present understanding of cathemeral behaviour, arguing that it should routinely be included alongside diurnal and nocturnal strategies in schemes that distinguish and categorise species across taxa according to temporal niche. This synthesis is particularly timely because (i) the study of animal activity patterns is being revolutionised by new and improved technologies; (ii) it is becoming apparent that cathemerality covers a diverse range of obligate to facultative forms, each with their own common sets of functional traits, geographic ranges and evolutionary history; (iii) daytime and nighttime activity likely plays an important but currently neglected role in temporal niche partitioning and ecosystem functioning; and (iv) cathemerality may have an important role in the ability of species to adapt to human-mediated pressures.

Large herbivore diversity slows sea ice-associated decline in arctic tundra diversity

Biodiversity is declining globally in response to multiple human stressors, including climate forcing. Nonetheless, local diversity trends are inconsistent in some taxa, obscuring contributions of local processes to global patterns. Arctic tundra diversity, including plants, fungi, and lichens, declined during a 15-year experiment that combined warming with exclusion of large herbivores known to influence tundra vegetation composition. Tundra diversity declined regardless of experimental treatment, as background growing season temperatures rose with sea ice loss. However, diversity declined slower with large herbivores than without them. This difference was associated with an increase in effective diversity of large herbivores as formerly abundant caribou declined and muskoxen increased. Efforts that promote herbivore diversity, such as rewilding, may help mitigate impacts of warming on tundra diversity.

Feast to famine: Sympatric predators respond differently to seasonal prey scarcity on the low Arctic tundra

Resource fluctuation is a major driver of animal movement, influencing strategic choices such as residency vs nomadism, or social dynamics. The Arctic tundra is characterized by strong seasonality: Resources are abundant during the short summers but scarce in winters. Therefore, expansion of boreal-forest species onto the tundra raises questions on how they cope with winter-resource scarcity. We examined a recent incursion by red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) onto the coastal tundra of northern Manitoba, an area historically occupied by Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) that lacks access to anthropogenic foods, and compared seasonal shifts in space use of the two species. We used 4 years of telemetry data following 8 red foxes and 11 Arctic foxes to test the hypothesis that the movement tactics of both species are primarily driven by temporal variability of resources. We also predicted that the harsh tundra conditions in winter would drive red foxes to disperse more often and maintain larger home ranges year-round than Arctic foxes, which are adapted to this environment. Dispersal was the most frequent winter movement tactic in both fox species, despite its association with high mortality (winter mortality was 9.4 times higher in dispersers than residents). Red foxes consistently dispersed toward the boreal forest, whereas Arctic foxes primarily used sea ice to disperse. Home range size of red and Arctic foxes did not differ in summer, but resident red foxes substantially increased their home range size in winter, whereas home range size of resident Arctic foxes did not change seasonally. As climate changes, abiotic constraints on some species may relax, but associated declines in prey communities may lead to local extirpation of many predators, notably by favoring dispersal during resource scarcity.

Diel niche variation in mammalian declines in the Anthropocene

Biodiversity is being eroded worldwide. Many human pressures are most forcefully exerted or have greatest effect during a particular period of the day. Therefore when species are physically active (their diel niche) may influence their risk of population decline. We grouped 5032 terrestrial extant mammals by their dominant activity pattern (nocturnal, crepuscular, cathemeral and diurnal), and determine variation in population decline across diel niches. We find an increased risk of population decline in diurnal (52.1% of species), compared to nocturnal (40.1% of species), crepuscular (39.1% of species) and cathemeral (43.0% of species) species, associated with the larger proportion of diurnal mammals that are primates. Those species with declining populations whose activity predominantly coincides with that of humans (cathemeral, diurnal) face an increased number of anthropogenic threats than those principally active at night, with diurnal species more likely to be declining from harvesting. Across much of the land surface habitat loss is the predominant driver of population decline, however, harvesting is a greater threat to day-active species in sub-Saharan Africa and mainland tropical Asia, associated with declines in megafauna and arboreal foragers. Deepening understanding of diel variation in anthropogenic pressures and resulting population declines will help target conservation actions.

Improving ecological insights from dendroecological studies of Arctic shrub dynamics: Research gaps and potential solutions

Rapid climate change has been driving changes in Arctic vegetation in recent decades, with increased shrub dominance in many tundra ecosystems. Dendroecological observations of tundra shrubs can provide insight into current and past growth and recruitment patterns, both key components for understanding and predicting ongoing and future Arctic shrub dynamics. However, generalizing these dynamics is challenging as they are highly scale-dependent and vary among sites, species, and individuals. Here, we provide a perspective on how some of these challenges can be overcome. Based on a targeted literature search of dendrochronological studies from 2005 to 2022, we highlight five research gaps that currently limit dendro-based studies from revealing cross-scale ecological insight into shrub dynamics across the Arctic biome. We further discuss the related research priorities, suggesting that future studies could consider: 1) increasing focus on intra- and interspecific variation, 2) including demographic responses other than radial growth, 3) incorporating drivers, in addition to warming, at different spatial and temporal scales, 4) implementing systematic and unbiased sampling approaches, and 5) investigating the cellular mechanisms behind the observed responses. Focusing on these aspects in dendroecological studies could improve the value of the field for addressing cross-scale and plant community-framed ecological questions. We outline how this could be facilitated through the integration of community-based dendroecology and dendroanatomy with remote sensing approaches. Integrating new technologies and a more multidisciplinary approach in dendroecological research could provide key opportunities to close important knowledge gaps in our understanding of scale-dependencies, as well as intra- and inter-specific variation, in vegetation community dynamics across the Arctic tundra.

Svalbard reindeer winter diets: Long-term dietary shifts to graminoids in response to a changing climate

Arctic ecosystems are changing dramatically with warmer and wetter conditions resulting in complex interactions between herbivores and their forage. We investigated how Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) modify their late winter diets in response to long-term trends and interannual variation in forage availability and accessibility. By reconstructing their diets and foraging niches over a 17-year period (1995-2012) using serum δ¹³ C and δ¹⁵ N values, we found strong support for a temporal increase in the proportions of graminoids in the diets with a concurrent decline in the contributions of mosses. This dietary shift corresponds with graminoid abundance increases in the region and was associated with increases in population density, warmer summer temperatures and more frequent rain-on-snow (ROS) in winter. In addition, the variance in isotopic niche positions, breadths, and overlaps also supported a temporal shift in the foraging niche and a dietary response to extreme ROS events. Our long-term study highlights the mechanisms by which winter and summer climate changes cascade through vegetation shifts and herbivore population dynamics to alter the foraging niche of Svalbard reindeer. Although it has been anticipated that climate changes in the Svalbard region of the Arctic would be detrimental to this unique ungulate, our study suggests that environmental change is in a phase where conditions are improving for this subspecies at the northernmost edge of the Rangifer distribution.

Bacterioplankton dispersal and biogeochemical function across Alaskan Arctic catchments

In Arctic catchments, bacterioplankton are dispersed through soils and streams, both of which freeze and thaw/flow in phase, seasonally. To characterize this dispersal and its potential impact on biogeochemistry, we collected bacterioplankton and measured stream physicochemistry during snowmelt and after vegetation senescence across multiple stream orders in alpine, tundra, and tundra-dominated-by-lakes catchments. In all catchments, differences in community composition were associated with seasonal thaw, then attachment status (i.e. free floating or sediment associated), and then stream order. Bacterioplankton taxonomic diversity and richness were elevated in sediment-associated fractions and in higher-order reaches during snowmelt. Families Chthonomonadaceae, Pyrinomonadaceae, and Xiphinematobacteraceae were abundantly different across seasons, while Flavobacteriaceae and Microscillaceae were abundantly different between free-floating and sediment-associated fractions. Physicochemical data suggested there was high iron (Fe⁺ ) production (alpine catchment); Fe⁺ production and chloride (Cl^- ) removal (tundra catchment); and phosphorus (SRP) removal and ammonium (NH₄ ⁺ ) production (lake catchment). In tundra landscapes, these 'hot spots' of Fe⁺ production and Cl^- removal accompanied shifts in species richness, while SRP promoted the antecedent community. Our findings suggest that freshet increases bacterial dispersal from headwater catchments to receiving catchments, where bacterioplankton-mineral relations stabilized communities in free-flowing reaches, but bacterioplankton-nutrient relations stabilized those punctuated by lakes.

Impacts of climate warming on reindeer herding require new land-use strategies

Climate in the Arctic has warmed at a more rapid pace than the global average over the past few decades leading to weather, snow, and ice situations previously unencountered. Reindeer herding is one of the primary livelihoods for Indigenous peoples throughout the Arctic. To understand how the new climate state forces societal adaptation, including new management strategies and needs for preserved, interconnected, undisturbed grazing areas, we coupled changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow depth recorded by automatic weather stations to herder observations of reindeer behaviour in grazing areas of the Laevas Sámi reindeer herding community, northern Sweden. Results show that weather and snow conditions strongly determine grazing opportunities and therefore reindeer response. We conclude that together with the cumulative effects of increased pressures from alternative land use activities, the non-predictable environmental conditions that are uniquely part of the warming climate seriously challenge future reindeer herding in northern Sweden.

Harvesting can stabilise population fluctuations and buffer the impacts of extreme climatic events

Harvesting can magnify the destabilising effects of environmental perturbations on population dynamics and, thereby, increase extinction risk. However, population-dynamic theory predicts that impacts of harvesting depend on the type and strength of density-dependent regulation. Here, we used logistic population growth models and an empirical reindeer case study to show that low to moderate harvesting can actually buffer populations against environmental perturbations. This occurs because of density-dependent environmental stochasticity, where negative environmental impacts on vital rates are amplified at high population density due to intra-specific resource competition. Simulations from our population models show that even low levels of harvesting may prevent overabundance, thereby dampening population fluctuations and reducing the risk of population collapse and quasi-extinction following environmental perturbations. Thus, depending on the species' life history and the strength of density-dependent environmental drivers, low to moderate harvesting can improve population resistance to increased climate variability and extreme weather expected under global warming.

Caribou and reindeer migrations in the changing Arctic

Caribou and reindeer, Rangifer tarandus, are the most numerous and socio-ecologically important terrestrial species in the Arctic. Their migrations are directly and indirectly affected by the seasonal nature of the northernmost regions, human development and population size; all of which are impacted by climate change. We review the most critical drivers of Rangifer migration and how a rapidly changing Arctic may affect them. In order to conserve large Rangifer populations, they must be allowed free passage along their migratory routes to reach seasonal ranges. We also provide some pragmatic ideas to help conserve Rangifer migrations into the future.

Potential applications of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)

Interest in the use of assisted reproductive technology in reindeer husbandry has gradually increased during the last decades. This article reviews Western and Russian literature on reindeer semen collection, semen cryopreservation and artificial insemination. In addition, literature on the synchronisation of the stage of reindeer oestrous cycle among females, recovery of in vivo embryos, embryo transfer, the production of in vitro-produced embryos and pregnancy diagnosis is reviewed.

New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.

Breeding den selection by Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) in southern Yamal Peninsula, Russia

Selecting the right location for a den during the breeding season is a type of habitat selection in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) that is likely to affect its reproductive success. A den’s suitability likely depends on its ability to provide shelter, as well as its proximity to prey resources. Depending on the different relative risks that Arctic foxes may face across their broad circumpolar range, Arctic foxes may place different emphases on selection for shelter and prey resources in different ecosystems. Understanding the different requirements for reproduction under different ecological conditions is highly relevant to conservation efforts in areas where Arctic foxes are threatened by rapid environmental changes. Here, we investigated the relative selection for shelter and prey resources in southern Yamal Peninsula (Russia) using data from 45 dens collected over a 13-year period. Arctic foxes preferred to breed in dens with more den entrances; an indicator of shelter quality. Arctic foxes also preferred dens surrounded by more prey resources (quantified by the amount of river valley habitat), but this result was less conclusive. These results complement the findings reported from other study areas, illustrating that Arctic foxes in ecosystems with diverse predator communities may put emphasis on selection for shelter quality. In less productive ecosystems, Arctic foxes may rather put emphasis on selection for prey resources. As tundra ecosystems become more productive and generalist predators move north, the reproductive requirements and habitat selection of Arctic foxes may change accordingly, depending on the species’ ability to adapt.

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO2 and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.

Screening of Eurasian Tundra Reindeer for Viral Sequences by Next-Generation Sequencing

Reindeer husbandry is essential for the livelihood and culture of indigenous people in the Arctic. Parts of the herding areas are also used as pastures for farm animals, facilitating potential transmission of viruses between species. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, viruses circulating in the wild are receiving increased attention, since they might pose a potential threat to human health. Climate change will influence the prevalence of infectious diseases of both humans and animals. The aim of this study was to detect known and previously unknown viruses in Eurasian tundra reindeer. In total, 623 nasal and 477 rectal swab samples were collected from reindeer herds in Fennoscandia, Iceland, and Eastern Russia during 2016–2019. Next-generation sequencing analysis and BLAST-homology searches indicated the presence of viruses of domesticated and wild animals, such as bovine viral diarrhea virus, bovine papillomavirus, alcephaline herpesvirus 1 and 2, deer mastadenovirus B, bovine rotavirus, and roe deer picobirnavirus. Several viral species previously found in reindeer and some novel species were detected, although the clinical relevance of these viruses in reindeer is largely unknown. These results indicate that it should be possible to find emerging viruses of relevance for both human and animal health using reindeer as a sentinel species.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Food (In)security of the Siberian Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic: Environmental and Health Risks

Climate change represents a global challenge that impacts the environment, traditional lifestyle and health of the Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia and threatens their food security. Reindeer are an important food source for this population since reindeer herding products are used as traditional nutrition and effective preventive means and remedies for adapting to the cold and geomagnetic activity in the High North. Longer off-season periods, high summer and winter temperatures, melting ice, and forest and tundra fires have a significant impact on the trampling and degradation of reindeer pastures. These effects may lead to massive reindeer losses and changes in the traditional diet of the Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic, which result in increases in the prevalence of respiratory diseases, overweight and hypertension. This study applied a multidisciplinary approach based on ecological and medical research methods with the inclusion of socioeconomic analysis. The primary sources included data on the longitudinal dynamics of air temperature as a climate change indicator and reindeer livestock populations (1936–2018), consumption of reindeer products and physiological impacts on the Yamal Indigenous population collected during expeditions to the Arctic zone of Western Siberia in 2012–2018.

The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate of Change

The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway as a model in which to examine trends in, and to compare the influence of, both effects on a pastoral grazing system. Downscaled projections of mean annual temperature over the principal winter pasture area (Finnmarksvidda) closely matched empirical observations across 34 years to 2018. The area, therefore, is not only warming but seems likely to continue to do so. Warming notwithstanding, 50-year (1969–2018) records of local weather (temperature, precipitation and characteristics of the snowpack) demonstrate considerable annual and decadal variation which also seems likely to continue and alternately to amplify and to counter net warming. Warming, moreover, has both positive and negative effects on ecosystem services that influence reindeer. The effects of climate change on reindeer pastoralism are evidently neither temporally nor spatially uniform, nor indeed is the role of climate change as a driver of change in pastoralism even clear. The effects of human intervention on the system, by contrast, are clear and largely negative. Gradual liberalization of grazing rights from the 18th Century has been countered by extensive loss of reindeer pasture. Access to ~50% of traditional winter pasture was lost in the 19th Century owing to the closure of international borders to the passage of herders and their reindeer. Subsequent to this the area of undisturbed pasture within Norway has decreased by 71%. Loss of pasture due to piecemeal development of infrastructure and to administrative encroachment that erodes herders' freedom of action on the land that remains to them, are the principal threats to reindeer husbandry in Norway today. These tangible effects far exceed the putative effects of current climate change on the system. The situation confronting Saami reindeer pastoralism is not unique: loss of pasture and administrative, economic, legal and social constraints bedevil extensive pastoral grazing systems across the globe.

Divergence of Arctic shrub growth associated with sea ice decline

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.

Food Sovereignty of the Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic Zone of Western Siberia: Response to COVID-19 Pandemic

This article presents the challenges facing reindeer herding as being both a profitable business and part of the traditional culture of the nomadic Indigenous peoples in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia which addresses substantial needs of the local population. Reindeer herding products are used as traditional nutrition, and as effective preventive means and remedies for adapting to the cold and geomagnetic activity in the High North. Export trends of traditional reindeer products have decreased local Indigenous peoples' access to venison and had a negative impact on their health. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is especially urgent for the Indigenous peoples to have sufficient access to traditional food and be involved in policy decision-making to maintain this traditional business. We aim to analyze the dependencies of Indigenous peoples on the reindeer produce-exporting "food value chain" and explore how (1) the independence of reindeer herders could be increased in these export chains and (2) how provision of their products to local communities could be secured. The study takes a multidisciplinary approach based on policy and socioeconomic analyses with input from medical research. Primary sources include data collected from interviews and surveys of Indigenous peoples during expeditions to the Nyda settlement, the Nydinskaya tundra, the Tazovsky settlement, the Tazovskaya tundra, the Nakhodka tundra, the Gyda and Gydansky settlements, the Yavai-Salinskaya tundra, the Seyakha settlement, the Seyakhinskaya and Tambeyskaya tundras located along the southern coast of the Ob Bay, the northeast coast of the Yamal Peninsula, the Tazovsky and Gydansky Peninsulas, and the Shuryshkarsky district. Data were collected during the summers and winters of 2014-2020.

Temporal and structural genetic variation in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) associated with the pastoral transition in Northwestern Siberia

Just as the domestication of livestock is often cited as a key element in the Neolithic transition to settled, the emergence of large-scaled reindeer husbandry was a fundamental social transformation for the indigenous peoples of Arctic Eurasia. To better understand the history of reindeer domestication, and the genetic processes associated with the pastoral transition in the Eurasian Arctic, we analyzed archaeological and contemporary reindeer samples from Northwestern Siberia. The material represents Rangifer genealogies spanning from 15,000 years ago to the 18th century, as well as modern samples from the wild Taĭmyr population and from domestic herds managed by Nenetses. The wild and the domestic population are the largest populations of their kind in Northern Eurasia, and some Nenetses hold their domestic reindeer beside their wild cousins. Our analyses of 197 modern and 223 ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences revealed two genetic clusters, which are interpreted as representing the gene pools of contemporary domestic and past wild reindeer. Among a total of 137 different mitochondrial haplotypes identified in both the modern and archaeological samples, only 21 were detected in the modern domestic gene pool, while 11 of these were absent from the wild gene pool. The significant temporal genetic shift that we associate with the pastoral transition suggests that the emergence and spread of reindeer pastoralism in Northwestern Siberia originated with the translocation and subsequent selective breeding of a special type of animal from outside the region. The distinct and persistent domestic characteristics of the haplotype structure since the 18th century suggests little genetic exchange since then. The absence of the typical domestic clade in modern nearby wild populations suggests that the contemporary Nenets domestic breed feature an ancestry from outside its present main distribution, possibly from further South.

Improving dialogue among researchers, local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.

Effects of sea ice on Arctic biota: an emerging crisis discipline

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice (ASI) extent, area and volume during recent decades is occurring before we can understand many of the mechanisms through which ASI interacts with biological processes both at sea and on land. As a consequence, our ability to predict and manage the effects of this enormous environmental change is limited, making this a crisis discipline Here, we propose a framework to study these effects, defining direct effects as those acting on life-history events of Arctic biota, and indirect effects, where ASI acts upon biological systems through chains of events, normally involving other components of the physical system and/or biotic interactions. Given the breadth and complexity of ASI's effects on Arctic biota, Arctic research requires a truly multidisciplinary approach to address this issue. In the absence of effective global efforts to tackle anthropogenic global warming, ASI will likely continue to decrease, compromising the conservation of many ASI-related taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Mitigation actions will rely heavily on the knowledge acquired on the mechanisms and components involved with the biological effects of ASI.

More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics

Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic population models for High-Arctic wild reindeer, we show that more frequent rain-on-snow events actually reduce extinction risk and stabilize population dynamics due to interactions with age structure and density dependence. Extreme rain-on-snow events mainly suppress vital rates of vulnerable ages at high population densities, resulting in a crash and a new population state with resilient ages and reduced population sensitivity to subsequent icy winters. Thus, observed responses to single extreme events are poor predictors of population dynamics and persistence because internal density-dependent feedbacks act as a buffer against more frequent events.

The Role of Winter Rain in the Glacial System on Svalbard

Rapid Arctic warming results in increased winter rain frequencies, which may impact glacial systems. In this paper, we discuss climatology and precipitation form trends, followed by examining the influence of winter rainfall (Oct‒May) on both the mass balance and dynamics of Hansbreen (Svalbard). We used data from the Hornsund meteorological station (01003 WMO), in addition to the original meteorological and glaciological data from three measurement points on Hansbreen. Precipitation phases were identified based on records of weather phenomena and used—along with information on lapse rate—to estimate the occurrence and altitudinal extent of winter rainfall over the glacier. We found an increase in the frequency of winter rain in Hornsund, and that these events impact both glacier mass balance and glacier dynamics. However, the latter varied depending on the degree of snow cover and drainage systems development. In early winter, given the initial, thin snow cover and an inefficient drainage system, rainfall increased glacier velocity. Full-season winter rainfall on well-developed snow was effectively stored in the glacier, contributing on average to 9% of the winter accumulation.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role.

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic’s largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT_emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT_emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic.