Full observability and estimation of unknown inputs, states and parameters of nonlinear biological models

Revisiting the observability and identifiability properties of a popular HIV model

This paper revisits the observability and identifiability properties of a popular ODE model commonly adopted to characterize the HIV dynamics in HIV-infected patients with antiretroviral treatment. These properties are determined by using the general analytical solution of the unknown input observability problem, introduced very recently in Martinelli (2022). This solution provides the systematic procedures able to determine the state observability and the parameter identifiability of any ODE model, in particular, even in the presence of time varying parameters. Four variants of the HIV model are investigated. They differ because some of their parameters are considered constant or time varying. Fundamental new properties, which also highlight an error in the scientific literature, are automatically determined and discussed. Additionally, for each variant, the paper provides a quantitative answer to the following practical question: What is the minimal external information (external to the available measurements of the system outputs) required to make observable the state and identifiable all the model parameters? The answer to this fundamental question is obtained by exploiting the concept of continuous symmetry, recently introduced in Martinelli (2019). This concept allows us to determine a first preliminary general result which is then applied to the HIV model. Finally, for each variant, the paper concludes by providing a redefinition of the state and of the parameters in order to obtain a full description of the system only in terms of a state which is observable and a set of parameters which are identifiable (both constant and time varying).

Modelling count data with partial differential equation models in biology

Partial differential equation (PDE) models are often used to study biological phenomena involving movement-birth-death processes, including ecological population dynamics and the invasion of populations of biological cells. Count data, by definition, is non-negative, and count data relating to biological populations is often bounded above by some carrying capacity that arises through biological competition for space or nutrients. Parameter estimation, parameter identifiability, and making model predictions usually involves working with a measurement error model that explicitly relating experimental measurements with the solution of a mathematical model. In many biological applications, a typical approach is to assume the data are normally distributed about the solution of the mathematical model. Despite the widespread use of the standard additive Gaussian measurement error model, the assumptions inherent in this approach are rarely explicitly considered or compared with other options. Here, we interpret scratch assay data, involving migration, proliferation and delays in a population of cancer cells using a reaction-diffusion PDE model. We consider relating experimental measurements to the PDE solution using a standard additive Gaussian measurement error model alongside a comparison to a more biologically realistic binomial measurement error model. While estimates of model parameters are relatively insensitive to the choice of measurement error model, model predictions for data realisations are very sensitive. The standard additive Gaussian measurement error model leads to biologically inconsistent predictions, such as negative counts and counts that exceed the carrying capacity across a relatively large spatial region within the experiment. Furthermore, the standard additive Gaussian measurement error model requires estimating an additional parameter compared to the binomial measurement error model. In contrast, the binomial measurement error model leads to biologically plausible predictions and is simpler to implement. We provide open source Julia software on GitHub to replicate all calculations in this work, and we explain how to generalise our approach to deal with coupled PDE models with several dependent variables through a multinomial measurement error model, as well as pointing out other potential generalisations by linking our work with established practices in the field of generalised linear models.

Data-driven control of oscillator networks with population-level measurement

Controlling complex networks of nonlinear limit-cycle oscillators is an important problem pertinent to various applications in engineering and natural sciences. While in recent years the control of oscillator populations with comprehensive biophysical models or simplified models, e.g., phase models, has seen notable advances, learning appropriate controls directly from data without prior model assumptions or pre-existing data remains a challenging and less developed area of research. In this paper, we address this problem by leveraging the network's current dynamics to iteratively learn an appropriate control online without constructing a global model of the system. We illustrate through a range of numerical simulations that the proposed technique can effectively regulate synchrony in various oscillator networks after a small number of trials using only one input and one noisy population-level output measurement. We provide a theoretical analysis of our approach, illustrate its robustness to system variations, and compare its performance with existing model-based and data-driven approaches.

Reusable rule-based cell cycle model explains compartment-resolved dynamics of 16 observables in RPE-1 cells

The mammalian cell cycle is regulated by a well-studied but complex biochemical reaction system. Computational models provide a particularly systematic and systemic description of the mechanisms governing mammalian cell cycle control. By combining both state-of-the-art multiplexed experimental methods and powerful computational tools, this work aims at improving on these models along four dimensions: model structure, validation data, validation methodology and model reusability. We developed a comprehensive model structure of the full cell cycle that qualitatively explains the behaviour of human retinal pigment epithelial-1 cells. To estimate the model parameters, time courses of eight cell cycle regulators in two compartments were reconstructed from single cell snapshot measurements. After optimisation with a parallel global optimisation metaheuristic we obtained excellent agreements between simulations and measurements. The PEtab specification of the optimisation problem facilitates reuse of model, data and/or optimisation results. Future perturbation experiments will improve parameter identifiability and allow for testing model predictive power. Such a predictive model may aid in drug discovery for cell cycle-related disorders.

Distilling identifiable and interpretable dynamic models from biological data

Mechanistic dynamical models allow us to study the behavior of complex biological systems. They can provide an objective and quantitative understanding that would be difficult to achieve through other means. However, the systematic development of these models is a non-trivial exercise and an open problem in computational biology. Currently, many research efforts are focused on model discovery, i.e. automating the development of interpretable models from data. One of the main frameworks is sparse regression, where the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) algorithm and its variants have enjoyed great success. SINDy-PI is an extension which allows the discovery of rational nonlinear terms, thus enabling the identification of kinetic functions common in biochemical networks, such as Michaelis-Menten. SINDy-PI also pays special attention to the recovery of parsimonious models (Occam's razor). Here we focus on biological models composed of sets of deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equations. We present a methodology that, combined with SINDy-PI, allows the automatic discovery of structurally identifiable and observable models which are also mechanistically interpretable. The lack of structural identifiability and observability makes it impossible to uniquely infer parameter and state variables, which can compromise the usefulness of a model by distorting its mechanistic significance and hampering its ability to produce biological insights. We illustrate the performance of our method with six case studies. We find that, despite enforcing sparsity, SINDy-PI sometimes yields models that are unidentifiable. In these cases we show how our method transforms their equations in order to obtain a structurally identifiable and observable model which is also interpretable.

Structural Identifiability and Observability of Microbial Community Models

Biological communities are populations of various species interacting in a common location. Microbial communities, which are formed by microorganisms, are ubiquitous in nature and are increasingly used in biotechnological and biomedical applications. They are nonlinear systems whose dynamics can be accurately described by models of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A number of ODE models have been proposed to describe microbial communities. However, the structural identifiability and observability of most of them-that is, the theoretical possibility of inferring their parameters and internal states by observing their output-have not been determined yet. It is important to establish whether a model possesses these properties, because, in their absence, the ability of a model to make reliable predictions may be compromised. Hence, in this paper, we analyse these properties for the main families of microbial community models. We consider several dimensions and measurements; overall, we analyse more than a hundred different configurations. We find that some of them are fully identifiable and observable, but a number of cases are structurally unidentifiable and/or unobservable under typical experimental conditions. Our results help in deciding which modelling frameworks may be used for a given purpose in this emerging area, and which ones should be avoided.

Data-Driven Control of Neuronal Networks with Population-Level Measurement

Controlling complex networks of nonlinear neurons is an important problem pertinent to various applications in engineering and natural sciences. While in recent years the control of neural populations with comprehensive biophysical models or simplified models, e.g., phase models, has seen notable advances, learning appropriate controls directly from data without any model assumptions remains a challenging and less developed area of research. In this paper, we address this problem by leveraging the network's local dynamics to iteratively learn an appropriate control without constructing a global model of the system. The proposed technique can effectively regulate synchrony in a neuronal network using only one input and one noisy population-level output measurement. We provide a theoretical analysis of our approach and illustrate its robustness to system variations and its generalizability to accommodate various physical constraints, such as charge-balanced inputs.

A dynamic kinetic model captures cell-free metabolism for improved butanol production

Cell-free systems are useful tools for prototyping metabolic pathways and optimizing the production of various bioproducts. Mechanistically-based kinetic models are uniquely suited to analyze dynamic experimental data collected from cell-free systems and provide vital qualitative insight. However, to date, dynamic kinetic models have not been applied with rigorous biological constraints or trained on adequate experimental data to the degree that they would give high confidence in predictions and broadly demonstrate the potential for widespread use of such kinetic models. In this work, we construct a large-scale dynamic model of cell-free metabolism with the goal of understanding and optimizing butanol production in a cell-free system. Using a combination of parameterization methods, the resultant model captures experimental metabolite measurements across two experimental conditions for nine metabolites at timepoints between 0 and 24 h. We present analysis of the model predictions, provide recommendations for butanol optimization, and identify the aldehyde/alcohol dehydrogenase as the primary bottleneck in butanol production. Sensitivity analysis further reveals the extent to which various parameters are constrained, and our approach for probing valid parameter ranges can be applied to other modeling efforts.

Benchmarking tools for a priori identifiability analysis

MOTIVATION

The theoretical possibility of determining the state and parameters of a dynamic model by measuring its outputs is given by its structural identifiability and its observability. These properties should be analysed before attempting to calibrate a model, but their a priori analysis can be challenging, requiring symbolic calculations that often have a high computational cost. In recent years, a number of software tools have been developed for this task, mostly in the systems biology community. These tools have vastly different features and capabilities, and a critical assessment of their performance is still lacking.

RESULTS

Here, we present a comprehensive study of the computational resources available for analysing structural identifiability. We consider 13 software tools developed in 7 programming languages and evaluate their performance using a set of 25 case studies created from 21 models. Our results reveal their strengths and weaknesses, provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate tool for a given problem and highlight opportunities for future developments.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://github.com/Xabo-RB/Benchmarking_files.

Optimal phase-selective entrainment of heterogeneous oscillator ensembles

We develop a framework to design optimal entrainment signals that entrain an ensemble of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators, described by phase models, at desired phases. We explicitly take into account heterogeneity in both oscillation frequency and the type of oscillators characterized by different Phase Response Curves. The central idea is to leverage the Fourier series representation of periodic functions to decode a phase-selective entrainment task into a quadratic program. We demonstrate our approach using a variety of phase models, where we entrain the oscillators into distinct phase patterns. Also, we show how the generalizability gained from our formulation enables us to meet a wide range of design objectives and constraints, such as minimum-power, fast entrainment, and charge-balanced controls.

STRIKE-GOLDD 4.0: user-friendly, efficient analysis of structural identifiability and observability

MOTIVATION

STRIKE-GOLDD is a toolbox that analyses the structural identifiability and observability of possibly non-linear, non-rational ODE models that may have known and unknown inputs. Its broad applicability comes at the expense of a lower computational efficiency than other tools.

RESULTS

STRIKE-GOLDD 4.0 includes a new algorithm, ProbObsTest, specifically designed for the analysis of rational models. ProbObsTest is significantly faster than the previously available FISPO algorithm when applied to computationally expensive models. Providing both algorithms in the same toolbox allows combining generality and computational efficiency. STRIKE-GOLDD 4.0 is implemented as a Matlab toolbox with a user-friendly graphical interface.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

STRIKE-GOLDD 4.0 is a free and open-source tool available under a GPLv3 license. It can be downloaded from GitHub at https://github.com/afvillaverde/strike-goldd.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Profile likelihood-based parameter and predictive interval analysis guides model choice for ecological population dynamics

Calibrating mathematical models to describe ecological data provides important insight via parameter estimation that is not possible from analysing data alone. When we undertake a mathematical modelling study of ecological or biological data, we must deal with the trade-off between data availability and model complexity. Dealing with the nexus between data availability and model complexity is an ongoing challenge in mathematical modelling, particularly in mathematical biology and mathematical ecology where data collection is often not standardised, and more broad questions about model selection remain relatively open. Therefore, choosing an appropriate model almost always requires case-by-case consideration. In this work we present a straightforward approach to quantitatively explore this trade-off using a case study exploring mathematical models of coral reef regrowth after some ecological disturbance, such as damage caused by a tropical cyclone. In particular, we compare a simple single species ordinary differential equation (ODE) model approach with a more complicated two-species coupled ODE model. Univariate profile likelihood analysis suggests that the both models are practically identifiable. To provide additional insight we construct and compare approximate prediction intervals using a new parameter-wise prediction approximation, confirming both the simple and complex models perform similarly with regard to making predictions. Our approximate parameter-wise prediction interval analysis provides explicit information about how each parameter affects the predictions of each model. Comparing our approximate prediction intervals with a more rigorous and computationally expensive evaluation of the full likelihood shows that the new approximations are reasonable in this case. All algorithms and software to support this work are freely available as jupyter notebooks on GitHub so that they can be adapted to deal with any other ODE-based models.

Improving dynamic predictions with ensembles of observable models

MOTIVATION

Dynamic mechanistic modelling in systems biology has been hampered by the complexity and variability associated with the underlying interactions, and by uncertain and sparse experimental measurements. Ensemble modelling, a concept initially developed in statistical mechanics, has been introduced in biological applications with the aim of mitigating those issues. Ensemble modelling uses a collection of different models compatible with the observed data to describe the phenomena of interest. However, since systems biology models often suffer from a lack of identifiability and observability, ensembles of models are particularly unreliable when predicting non-observable states.

RESULTS

We present a strategy to assess and improve the reliability of a class of model ensembles. In particular, we consider kinetic models described using ordinary differential equations with a fixed structure. Our approach builds an ensemble with a selection of the parameter vectors found when performing parameter estimation with a global optimization metaheuristic. This technique enforces diversity during the sampling of parameter space and it can quantify the uncertainty in the predictions of state trajectories. We couple this strategy with structural identifiability and observability analysis, and when these tests detect possible prediction issues we obtain model reparameterizations that surmount them. The end result is an ensemble of models with the ability to predict the internal dynamics of a biological process. We demonstrate our approach with models of glucose regulation, cell division, circadian oscillations and the JAK-STAT signalling pathway.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The code that implements the methodology and reproduces the results is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6782638.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Minimizing Foaming and Bulking in Activated Sludge with Bacteriophage Treatment: A Review of Mathematical Modeling

The interest in the ability of phages to control bacterial populations has extended from medical applications into the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, and the food industry. In particular, several authors have proposed using bacteriophages as an alternative method to control foaming and bulking in wastewater treatment. This strategy has shown successful results at the laboratory scale. However, this technology is still in development, and there are several challenges to overcome before bacteriophages can be widely used to control foaming and bulking in pilot or larger-scale treatment plants. Several models of the infection mechanisms in individual bacteria–phage pairs have been reported, i.e., for controlled systems with only one bacterium species in the presence of one phage species. However, activated sludge treatment systems largely differ from this situation, which opens a large horizon for future research. Mathematical models will play a key role in this development process, and this review offers an overview of the proposed models: their applications, potential, and challenges. A particular focus is placed on the model properties, such as parameter identifiability and states’ observability, which are essential for process prediction, monitoring, or dynamic optimization.

BMSS2: A Unified Database-Driven Modeling Tool for Systematic Biomodel Selection

Modeling in synthetic biology constitutes a powerful means in our continuous search for improved performance with a rational Design-Build-Test-Learn approach. Particularly, kinetic models unravel system dynamics and enable system analysis for guiding experimental design. However, a systematic yet modular pipeline that allows one to identify the appropriate model and guide the experimental designs while tracing the entire model development and analysis is still lacking. Here, we develop BMSS2, a unified tool that streamlines and automates model selection by combining information criterion ranking with upstream and parallel analysis algorithms. These include Bayesian parameter inference, a priori and a posteriori identifiability analysis, and global sensitivity analysis. In addition, the database-driven design supports interactive model storage/retrieval to encourage reusability and facilitate automated model selection. This allows ease of model manipulation and deposition for the selection and analysis, thus enabling better utilization of models in guiding experimental design.

Ratiometric control of cell phenotypes in monostrain microbial consortia

We address the problem of regulating and keeping at a desired balance the relative numbers between cells exhibiting a different phenotype within a monostrain microbial consortium. We propose a strategy based on the use of external control inputs, assuming each cell in the community is endowed with a reversible, bistable memory mechanism. Specifically, we provide a general analytical framework to guide the design of external feedback control strategies aimed at balancing the ratio between cells whose memory is stabilized at either one of two equilibria associated with different cell phenotypes. We demonstrate the stability and robustness properties of the control laws proposed and validate them in silico, implementing the memory element via a genetic toggle-switch. The proposed control framework may be used to allow long-term coexistence of different populations, with both industrial and biotechnological applications. As a representative example, we consider the realistic agent-based implementation of our control strategy to enable cooperative bioproduction of a dimer in a monostrain microbial consortium.

Non-Linear Observer Design with Laguerre Polynomials

In this paper, a methodology for a non-linear system state estimation is demonstrated, exploiting the input and parameter observability. For this purpose, the initial system is transformed into the canonical observability form, and the function that aggregates the non-linear dynamics of the system, which may be unknown or difficult to be computed, is approximated by a linear combination of Laguerre polynomials. Hence, the system identification translates into the estimation of the parameters involved in the linear combination in order for the system to be observable. For the validation of the elaborated observer, we consider a biological model from the literature, investigating whether it is practically possible to infer its states, taking into account the new coordinates to design the appropriate observer of the system states. Through simulations, we investigate the parameter settings under which the new observer can identify the state of the system. More specifically, as the parameter θ increases, the system converges more quickly to the steady-state, decreasing the respective distance from the system’s initial state. As for the first state, the estimation error is in the order of 10−2 for θ=15, and assuming c0={0,1},c1=1. Under the same conditions, the estimation error of the system’s second state is in the order of 10−1, setting a performance difference of 10−1 in relation to the first state. The outcomes show that the proposed observer’s performance can be further improved by selecting even higher values of θ. Hence, the system is observable through the measurement output.

Control-Based Continuation: A New Approach to Prototype Synthetic Gene Networks

Control-Based Continuation (CBC) is a general and systematic method to carry out the bifurcation analysis of physical experiments. CBC does not rely on a mathematical model and thus overcomes the uncertainty introduced when identifying bifurcation curves indirectly through modeling and parameter estimation. We demonstrate, in silico, CBC applicability to biochemical processes by tracking the equilibrium curve of a toggle switch, which includes additive process noise and exhibits bistability. We compare the results obtained when CBC uses a model-free and model-based control strategy and show that both can track stable and unstable solutions, revealing bistability. We then demonstrate CBC in conditions more representative of an in vivo experiment using an agent-based simulator describing cell growth and division, cell-to-cell variability, spatial distribution, and diffusion of chemicals. We further show how the identified curves can be used for parameter estimation and discuss how CBC can significantly accelerate the prototyping of synthetic gene regulatory networks.

Dynamic Modeling of Crop–Soil Systems to Design Monitoring and Automatic Irrigation Processes: A Review with Worked Examples

The smart use of water is a key factor in increasing food production. Over the years, irrigation has relied on historical data and traditional management policies. Control techniques have been exploited to build automatic irrigation systems based on climatic records and weather forecasts. However, climate change and new sources of information motivate better irrigation strategies that might take advantage of the new sources of information in the spectrum of systems and control methodologies in a more systematic way. In this connection, two open questions deserve interest: (i) How can one deal with the space–time variability of soil conditions? (ii) How can one provide robustness to an irrigation system under unexpected environmental change? In this review, the different elements of an automatic control system are described, including the mathematical modeling of the crop–soil systems, instrumentation and actuation, model identification and validation from experimental data, estimation of non-measured variables and sensor fusion, and predictive control based on crop–soil and weather models. An overview of the literature is given, and several specific examples are worked out for illustration purposes.

Symmetries in Dynamic Models of Biological Systems: Mathematical Foundations and Implications

Symmetries are ubiquitous in nature. Almost all organisms have some kind of “symmetry”, meaning that their shape does not change under some geometric transformation. This geometrical concept of symmetry is intuitive and easy to recognize. On the other hand, the behavior of many biological systems over time can be described with ordinary differential equations. These dynamic models may also possess “symmetries”, meaning that the time courses of some variables remain invariant under certain transformations. Unlike the previously mentioned symmetries, the ones present in dynamic models are not geometric, but infinitesimal transformations. These mathematical symmetries can be related to certain features of the system’s dynamic behavior, such as robustness or adaptation capabilities. However, they can also arise from questionable modeling choices, which may lead to non-identifiability and non-observability. This paper provides an overview of the types of symmetries that appear in dynamic models, the mathematical tools available for their analyses, the ways in which they are related to system properties, and the implications for biological modeling.

A protocol for dynamic model calibration

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and nonmeasurable parameters, which have to be determined by fitting the model to experimental data. In order to perform this task, known as parameter estimation or model calibration, the modeller faces challenges such as poor parameter identifiability, lack of sufficiently informative experimental data and the existence of local minima in the objective function landscape. These issues tend to worsen with larger model sizes, increasing the computational complexity and the number of unknown parameters. An incorrectly calibrated model is problematic because it may result in inaccurate predictions and misleading conclusions. For nonexpert users, there are a large number of potential pitfalls. Here, we provide a protocol that guides the user through all the steps involved in the calibration of dynamic models. We illustrate the methodology with two models and provide all the code required to reproduce the results and perform the same analysis on new models. Our protocol provides practitioners and researchers in biological modelling with a one-stop guide that is at the same time compact and sufficiently comprehensive to cover all aspects of the problem.

IDENTIFIABILITY OF INFECTION MODEL PARAMETERS EARLY IN AN EPIDEMIC

It is known that the parameters in the deterministic and stochastic SEIR epidemic models are structurally identifiable. For example, from knowledge of the infected population time series I(t) during the entire epidemic, the parameters can be successfully estimated. In this article we observe that estimation will fail in practice if only infected case data during the early part of the epidemic (prepeak) is available. This fact can be explained using a well-known phenomenon called dynamical compensation. We use this concept to derive an unidentifiability manifold in the parameter space of SEIR that consists of parameters indistinguishable from I(t) early in the epidemic. Thus, identifiability depends on the extent of the system trajectory that is available for observation. Although the existence of the unidentifiability manifold obstructs the ability to exactly determine the parameters, we suggest that it may be useful for uncertainty quantification purposes. A variant of SEIR recently proposed for COVID-19 modeling is also analyzed, and an analogous unidentifiability surface is derived.

On testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method: Relying on scaling symmetries can be misleading

A recent paper published in PLOS Computational Biology [1] introduces the Scaling Invariance Method (SIM) for analysing structural local identifiability and observability. These two properties define mathematically the possibility of determining the values of the parameters (identifiability) and states (observability) of a dynamic model by observing its output. In this note we warn that SIM considers scaling symmetries as the only possible cause of non-identifiability and non-observability. We show that other types of symmetries can cause the same problems without being detected by SIM, and that in those cases the method may lead one to conclude that the model is identifiable and observable when it is actually not.

Model-based data analysis of tissue growth in thin 3D printed scaffolds

Tissue growth in three-dimensional (3D) printed scaffolds enables exploration and control of cell behaviour in more biologically realistic geometries than that allowed by traditional 2D cell culture. Cell proliferation and migration in these experiments have yet to be explicitly characterised, limiting the ability of experimentalists to determine the effects of various experimental conditions, such as scaffold geometry, on cell behaviour. We consider tissue growth by osteoblastic cells in melt electro-written scaffolds that comprise thin square pores with sizes that were deliberately increased between experiments. We collect highly detailed temporal measurements of the average cell density, tissue coverage, and tissue geometry. To quantify tissue growth in terms of the underlying cell proliferation and migration processes, we introduce and calibrate a mechanistic mathematical model based on the Porous-Fisher reaction-diffusion equation. Parameter estimates and uncertainty quantification through profile likelihood analysis reveal consistency in the rate of cell proliferation and steady-state cell density between pore sizes. This analysis also serves as an important model verification tool: while the use of reaction-diffusion models in biology is widespread, the appropriateness of these models to describe tissue growth in 3D scaffolds has yet to be explored. We find that the Porous-Fisher model is able to capture features relating to the cell density and tissue coverage, but is not able to capture geometric features relating to the circularity of the tissue interface. Our analysis identifies two distinct stages of tissue growth, suggests several areas for model refinement, and provides guidance for future experimental work that explores tissue growth in 3D printed scaffolds.

Profile likelihood analysis for a stochastic model of diffusion in heterogeneous media

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material, where each layer has a distinct particle hopping rate. Particles are released at some location, and the duration of time taken for each particle to reach an absorbing boundary is recorded. To explore whether these data can be used to identify the hopping rates in each layer, we compute various profile likelihoods using two methods: first, an exact likelihood is evaluated using a relatively expensive Markov chain approach; and, second, we form an approximate likelihood by assuming the distribution of exit times is given by a Gamma distribution whose first two moments match the moments from the continuum limit description of the stochastic model. Using the exact and approximate likelihoods, we construct various profile likelihoods for a range of problems. In cases where parameter values are not identifiable, we make progress by re-interpreting those data with a reduced model with a smaller number of layers.

Leveraging deep learning to control neural oscillators

Modulation of the firing times of neural oscillators has long been an important control objective, with applications including Parkinson's disease, Tourette's syndrome, epilepsy, and learning. One common goal for such modulation is desynchronization, wherein two or more oscillators are stimulated to transition from firing in phase with each other to firing out of phase. The optimization of such stimuli has been well studied, but this typically relies on either a reduction of the dimensionality of the system or complete knowledge of the parameters and state of the system. This limits the applicability of results to real problems in neural control. Here, we present a trained artificial neural network capable of accurately estimating the effects of square-wave stimuli on neurons using minimal output information from the neuron. We then apply the results of this network to solve several related control problems in desynchronization, including desynchronizing pairs of neurons and achieving clustered subpopulations of neurons in the presence of coupling and noise.

Searching for Errors in Models of Complex Dynamic Systems

Mathematical modeling is seen as a key step to understand, predict, and control the temporal dynamics of interacting systems in such diverse areas like physics, biology, medicine, and economics. However, for large and complex systems we usually have only partial knowledge about the network, the coupling functions, and the interactions with the environment governing the dynamic behavior. This incomplete knowledge induces structural model errors which can in turn be the cause of erroneous model predictions or misguided interpretations. Uncovering the location of such structural model errors in large networks can be a daunting task for a modeler. Here, we present a data driven method to search for structural model errors and to confine their position in large and complex dynamic networks. We introduce a coherence measure for pairs of network nodes, which indicates, how difficult it is to distinguish these nodes as sources of an error. By clustering network nodes into coherence groups and inferring the cluster inputs we can decide, which cluster is affected by an error. We demonstrate the utility of our method for the C. elegans neural network, for a signal transduction model for UV-B light induced morphogenesis and for synthetic examples.

Structural identifiability and observability of compartmental models of the COVID-19 pandemic

The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted their limitations. If some parameters and/or state variables of a model cannot be determined from output measurements, its ability to yield correct insights - as well as the possibility of controlling the system - may be compromised. Epidemic dynamics are commonly analysed using compartmental models, and many variations of such models have been used for analysing and predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we survey the different models proposed in the literature, assembling a list of 36 model structures and assessing their ability to provide reliable information. We address the problem using the control theoretic concepts of structural identifiability and observability. Since some parameters can vary during the course of an epidemic, we consider both the constant and time-varying parameter assumptions. We analyse the structural identifiability and observability of all of the models, considering all plausible choices of outputs and time-varying parameters, which leads us to analyse 255 different model versions. We classify the models according to their structural identifiability and observability under the different assumptions and discuss the implications of the results. We also illustrate with an example several alternative ways of remedying the lack of observability of a model. Our analyses provide guidelines for choosing the most informative model for each purpose, taking into account the available knowledge and measurements.

Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology

Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.

Testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method

Successful mathematical modeling of biological processes relies on the expertise of the modeler to capture the essential mechanisms in the process at hand and on the ability to extract useful information from empirical data. A model is said to be structurally unidentifiable, if different quantitative sets of parameters provide the same observable outcome. This is typical (but not exclusive) of partially observed problems in which only a few variables can be experimentally measured. Most of the available methods to test the structural identifiability of a model are either too complex mathematically for the general practitioner to be applied, or require involved calculations or numerical computation for complex non-linear models. In this work, we present a new analytical method to test structural identifiability of models based on ordinary differential equations, based on the invariance of the equations under the scaling transformation of its parameters. The method is based on rigorous mathematical results but it is easy and quick to apply, even to test the identifiability of sophisticated highly non-linear models. We illustrate our method by example and compare its performance with other existing methods in the literature.

Systems biology informed deep learning for inferring parameters and hidden dynamics

Mathematical models of biological reactions at the system-level lead to a set of ordinary differential equations with many unknown parameters that need to be inferred using relatively few experimental measurements. Having a reliable and robust algorithm for parameter inference and prediction of the hidden dynamics has been one of the core subjects in systems biology, and is the focus of this study. We have developed a new systems-biology-informed deep learning algorithm that incorporates the system of ordinary differential equations into the neural networks. Enforcing these equations effectively adds constraints to the optimization procedure that manifests itself as an imposed structure on the observational data. Using few scattered and noisy measurements, we are able to infer the dynamics of unobserved species, external forcing, and the unknown model parameters. We have successfully tested the algorithm for three different benchmark problems.

Nonlinear Observability Algorithms with Known and Unknown Inputs: Analysis and Implementation

The observability of a dynamical system is affected by the presence of external inputs, either known (such as control actions) or unknown (disturbances). Inputs of unknown magnitude are especially detrimental for observability, and they also complicate its analysis. Hence, the availability of computational tools capable of analysing the observability of nonlinear systems with unknown inputs has been limited until lately. Two symbolic algorithms based on differential geometry, ORC-DF and FISPO, have been recently proposed for this task, but their critical analysis and comparison is still lacking. Here we perform an analytical comparison of both algorithms and evaluate their performance on a set of problems, while discussing their strengths and limitations. Additionally, we use these analyses to provide insights about certain aspects of the relationship between inputs and observability. We found that, while ORC-DF and FISPO follow a similar approach, they differ in key aspects that can have a substantial influence on their applicability and computational cost. The FISPO algorithm is more generally applicable, since it can analyse any nonlinear ODE model. The ORC-DF algorithm analyses models that are affine in the inputs, and if those models have known inputs it is sometimes more efficient. Thus, the optimal choice of a method depends on the characteristics of the problem under consideration. To facilitate the use of both algorithms, we implemented the ORC-DF condition in a new version of STRIKE-GOLDD, a MATLAB toolbox for structural identifiability and observability analysis. Since this software tool already had an implementation of the FISPO algorithm, the new release allows modellers and model users the convenience of choosing between different algorithms in a single tool, without changing the coding of their model.

Model-Based Process Optimization for the Production of Macrolactin D by Paenibacillus polymyxa

In this study, we show the successful application of different model-based approaches for the maximizing of macrolactin D production by Paenibacillus polymyxa. After four initial cultivations, a family of nonlinear dynamic biological models was determined automatically and ranked by their respective Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The best models were then used in a multi-model setup for robust product maximization. The experimental validation shows the highest product yield attained compared with the identification runs so far. In subsequent fermentations, the online measurements of CO2 concentration, base consumption, and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) were used for model improvement. After model extension using expert knowledge, a single superior model could be identified. Model-based state estimation with a sigma-point Kalman filter (SPKF) was based on online measurement data, and this improved model enabled nonlinear real-time product maximization. The optimization increased the macrolactin D production even further by 28% compared with the initial robust multi-model offline optimization.

Model-Based Optimal AML Consolidation Treatment

OBJECTIVE

Neutropenia is an adverse event commonly arising during intensive chemotherapy of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). It is often associated with infectious complications. Mathematical modeling, simulation, and optimization of the treatment process would be a valuable tool to support clinical decision making, potentially resulting in less severe side effects and deeper remissions. However, until now, there has been no validated mathematical model available to simulate the effect of chemotherapy treatment on white blood cell (WBC) counts and leukemic cells simultaneously.

METHODS

We developed a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model combining a myelosuppression model considering endogenous granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), a PK model for cytarabine (Ara-C), a subcutaneous absorption model for exogenous G-CSF, and a two-compartment model for leukemic blasts. This model was fitted to data of 44 AML patients during consolidation therapy with a novel Ara-C plus G-CSF schedule from a phase II controlled clinical trial. Additionally, we were able to optimize treatment schedules with respect to disease progression, WBC nadirs, and the amount of Ara-C and G-CSF.

RESULTS

The developed PK/PD model provided good prediction accuracies and an interpretation of the interaction between WBCs, G-CSF, and blasts. For 14 patients (those with available bone marrow blast counts), we achieved a median 4.2-fold higher WBC count at nadir, which is the most critical time during consolidation therapy. The simulation results showed that relative bone marrow blast counts remained below the clinically important threshold of 5%, with a median of 60% reduction in Ara-C.

CONCLUSION

These in silico findings demonstrate the benefits of optimized treatment schedules for AML patients.

SIGNIFICANCE

Until 2017, no new drug had been approved for the treatment of AML, fostering the optimal use of currently available drugs.

Finding and Breaking Lie Symmetries: Implications for Structural Identifiability and Observability in Biological Modelling

A dynamic model is structurally identifiable (respectively, observable) if it is theoretically possible to infer its unknown parameters (respectively, states) by observing its output over time. The two properties, structural identifiability and observability, are completely determined by the model equations. Their analysis is of interest for modellers because it informs about the possibility of gaining insight into a model’s unmeasured variables. Here we cast the problem of analysing structural identifiability and observability as that of finding Lie symmetries. We build on previous results that showed that structural unidentifiability amounts to the existence of Lie symmetries. We consider nonlinear models described by ordinary differential equations and restrict ourselves to rational functions. We revisit a method for finding symmetries by transforming rational expressions into linear systems. We extend the method by enabling it to provide symmetry-breaking transformations, which allows for a semi-automatic model reformulation that renders a non-observable model observable. We provide a MATLAB implementation of the methodology as part of the STRIKE-GOLDD toolbox for observability and identifiability analysis. We illustrate the use of the methodology in the context of biological modelling by applying it to a set of problems taken from the literature.

Practical parameter identifiability for spatio-temporal models of cell invasion

We examine the practical identifiability of parameters in a spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion model of a scratch assay. Experimental data involve fluorescent cell cycle labels, providing spatial information about cell position and temporal information about the cell cycle phase. Cell cycle labelling is incorporated into the reaction-diffusion model by treating the total population as two interacting subpopulations. Practical identifiability is examined using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, confirming that the parameters are identifiable when we assume the diffusivities of the subpopulations are identical, but that the parameters are practically non-identifiable when we allow the diffusivities to be distinct. We also assess practical identifiability using a profile likelihood approach, providing similar results to MCMC with the advantage of being an order of magnitude faster to compute. Therefore, we suggest that the profile likelihood ought to be adopted as a screening tool to assess practical identifiability before MCMC computations are performed.