Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

Paris Agreement could prevent regional mass extinctions of coral species

Coral reef ecosystems are expected to undergo significant declines over the coming decades as oceans become warmer and more acidic. We investigate the environmental tolerances of over 650 Scleractinian coral species based on the conditions found within their present-day ranges and in areas where they are currently absent but could potentially reach via larval dispersal. These "environmental envelopes" and connectivity constraints are then used to develop global forecasts for potential coral species richness under two emission scenarios, representing the Paris Agreement target ("SSP1-2.6") and high levels of emissions ("SSP5-8.5"). Although we do not directly predict coral mortality or adaptation, the projected changes to environmental suitability suggest considerable declines in coral species richness for the majority of the world's tropical coral reefs, with a net loss in average local richness of 73% (Paris Agreement) to 91% (High Emissions) by 2080-2090 and particularly large declines across sites in the Great Barrier Reef, Coral Sea, Western Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. However, at the regional scale, we find that environmental suitability for the majority of coral species can be largely maintained under the Paris Agreement target, with 0%-30% potential net species lost in most regions (increasing to 50% for the Great Barrier Reef) as opposed to 80%-90% losses under High Emissions. Projections for subtropical areas suggest that range expansion will give rise to coral reefs with low species richness (typically 10-20 coral species per region) and will not meaningfully offset declines in the tropics. This work represents the first global projection of coral species richness under oceanic warming and acidification. Our results highlight the critical importance of mitigating climate change to avoid potentially massive extinctions of coral species.

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

Increases in reef size, habitat and metacommunity complexity associated with Cambrian radiation oxygenation pulses

Oxygenation during the Cambrian Radiation progressed via a series of short-lived pulses. However, the metazoan biotic response to this episodic oxygenation has not been quantified, nor have the causal evolutionary processes been constrained. Here we present ecological analyses of Cambrian archaeocyath sponge reef communities on the Siberian Platform (525-514 Ma). During the oxic pulse at ~521-519 Ma, we quantify reef habitat expansion coupled to an increase in reef size and metacommunity complexity, from individual within-community reactions to their local environment, to ecologically complex synchronous community-wide response, accompanied by an increase in rates of origination. Subsequently, reef and archaeocyath body size are reduced in association with increased rates of extinction due to inferred expanded marine anoxia (~519-516.5 Ma). A later oxic pulse at ~515 Ma shows further reef habitat expansion, increased archaeocyath body size and diversity, but weaker community-wide environmental responses. These metrics confirm that oxygenation events created temporary pulses of evolutionary diversification and enhanced ecosystem complexity, potentially via the expansion of habitable space, and increased archaeocyath individual and reef longevity in turn leading to niche differentiation. Most notably, we show that progression towards increasing biodiversity and ecosystem complexity was episodic and discontinuous, rather than linear, during the Cambrian Radiation.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Past, present, and future climate space of the only endemic vertebrate genus of the Italian peninsula

The two extant Salamandrina species represent a unique case of morphology, ecology, and ethology among urodeles. The range of this genus is currently limited to Italy, where it represents the only endemic vertebrate genus, but its past range extended over a much broader area of Europe, including the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas. ENM analyses using modern occurrences of Salamandrina demonstrate that the current climate of the majority of Europe, and especially areas where fossils of this genus were found, is currently not suitable for this genus, neither was it suitable during the last 3.3 million years. This result allows possible assumptions about the climatic influence on the former extirpation of this salamander from several areas of Europe. Furthermore, it shows that, during Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic oscillations, Mediterranean peninsulas, despite being generally considered together because of similar latitude, had different potential to effectively become glacial refugia for this salamander, and possibly for other species as well. Future projections using different CO₂ emission scenarios predict that climatic suitability will be even more drastically reduced during the next 50 years, underlining once more the importance of conservation strategies and emission-reducing policies.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Accumulation curves of environmental DNA sequences predict coastal fish diversity in the coral triangle

Environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to provide more comprehensive biodiversity assessments, particularly for vertebrates in species-rich regions. However, this method requires the completeness of a reference database (i.e. a list of DNA sequences attached to each species), which is not currently achieved for many taxa and ecosystems. As an alternative, a range of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) can be extracted from eDNA metabarcoding. However, the extent to which the diversity of OTUs provided by a limited eDNA sampling effort can predict regional species diversity is unknown. Here, by modelling OTU accumulation curves of eDNA seawater samples across the Coral Triangle, we obtained an asymptote reaching 1531 fish OTUs, while 1611 fish species are recorded in the region. We also accurately predict (R² = 0.92) the distribution of species richness among fish families from OTU-based asymptotes. Thus, the multi-model framework of OTU accumulation curves extends the use of eDNA metabarcoding in ecology, biogeography and conservation.

Asmodochelys parhami, a new fossil marine turtle from the Campanian Demopolis Chalk and the stratigraphic congruence of competing marine turtle phylogenies

Resolving the phylogeny of sea turtles is uniquely challenging given the high potential for the unification of convergent lineages due to systematic homoplasy. Equivocal reconstructions of marine turtle evolution subsequently inhibit efforts to establish fossil calibrations for molecular divergence estimates and prevent the accurate reconciliation of biogeographic or palaeoclimatic data with phylogenetic hypotheses. Here we describe a new genus and species of marine turtle, Asmodochelys parhami, from the Upper Campanian Demopolis Chalk of Alabama and Mississippi, USA represented by three partial shells. Phylogenetic analysis shows that A. parhami belongs to the ctenochelyids, an extinct group that shares characteristics with both pan-chelonioids and pan-cheloniids. In addition to supporting Ctenochelyidae as a sister taxon of Chelonioidea, our analysis places Protostegidae outside of the Chelonioidea crown group and recovers Allopleuron hofmanni as a stem dermochelyid. Gap excess ratio (GER) results indicate a strong stratigraphic congruence of our phylogenetic hypothesis; however, the highest GER value is associated with the phylogenetic hypothesis of marine turtles which excludes Protostegidae from the Cryptodira crown group. Ancestral range estimations derived from our phylogeny imply a European or North American origin of Chelonioidea in the middle-to-late Campanian, approximately 20 Myr earlier than current molecular divergence studies suggest.

Climatic shifts drove major contractions in avian latitudinal distributions throughout the Cenozoic

Many higher level avian clades are restricted to Earth's lower latitudes, leading to historical biogeographic reconstructions favoring a Gondwanan origin of crown birds and numerous deep subclades. However, several such "tropical-restricted" clades (TRCs) are represented by stem-lineage fossils well outside the ranges of their closest living relatives, often on northern continents. To assess the drivers of these geographic disjunctions, we combined ecological niche modeling, paleoclimate models, and the early Cenozoic fossil record to examine the influence of climatic change on avian geographic distributions over the last ∼56 million years. By modeling the distribution of suitable habitable area through time, we illustrate that most Paleogene fossil-bearing localities would have been suitable for occupancy by extant TRC representatives when their stem-lineage fossils were deposited. Potentially suitable habitat for these TRCs is inferred to have become progressively restricted toward the tropics throughout the Cenozoic, culminating in relatively narrow circumtropical distributions in the present day. Our results are consistent with coarse-scale niche conservatism at the clade level and support a scenario whereby climate change over geological timescales has largely dictated the geographic distributions of many major avian clades. The distinctive modern bias toward high avian diversity at tropical latitudes for most hierarchical taxonomic levels may therefore represent a relatively recent phenomenon, overprinting a complex biogeographic history of dramatic geographic range shifts driven by Earth's changing climate, variable persistence, and intercontinental dispersal. Earth's current climatic trajectory portends a return to a megathermal state, which may dramatically influence the geographic distributions of many range-restricted extant clades.