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Diaz-Infante S, Acuña-Zegarra MA, Velasco-Hernández JX. Modeling a traffic light warning system for acute respiratory infections. APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 2023; 121:217-230. [PMID: 37193366 PMCID: PMC10165461 DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2023.04.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The high morbidity of acute respiratory infections constitutes a crucial global health burden. In particular, for SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical intervention geared to enforce social distancing policies, vaccination, and treatments will remain an essential part of public health policies to mitigate and control disease outbreaks. However, the implementation of mitigation measures directed to increase social distancing when the risk of contagion is a complex enterprise because of the impact of NPI on beliefs, political views, economic issues, and, in general, public perception. The way of implementing these mitigation policies studied in this work is the so-called traffic-light monitoring system that attempts to regulate the application of measures that include restrictions on mobility and the size of meetings, among other non-pharmaceutical strategies. Balanced enforcement and relaxation of measures guided through a traffic-light system that considers public risk perception and economic costs may improve the public health benefit of the policies while reducing their cost. We derive a model for the epidemiological traffic-light policies based on the best response for trigger measures driven by the risk perception of people, instantaneous reproduction number, and the prevalence of a hypothetical acute respiratory infection. With numerical experiments, we evaluate and identify the role of appreciation from a hypothetical controller that could opt for protocols aligned with the cost due to the burden of the underlying disease and the economic cost of implementing measures. As the world faces new acute respiratory outbreaks, our results provide a methodology to evaluate and develop traffic light policies resulting from a delicate balance between health benefits and economic implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saul Diaz-Infante
- Departamento de Matemáticas, CONACYT - Universidad de Sonora, Blvd. Luis Encinas y Rosales S/N, Hermosillo, Col. Centro, Sonora, C.P. 83000, México
| | - M Adrian Acuña-Zegarra
- Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Sonora, Blvd. Luis Encinas y Rosales S/N, Hermosillo, Col. Centro, Sonora, C.P. 83000, México
| | - Jorge X Velasco-Hernández
- Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Boulevard Juriquilla 3001, Querétaro, C.P. 76230, México
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Vattiato G, Lustig A, Maclaren O, Binny RN, Hendy SC, Harvey E, O'Neale D, Plank MJ. Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2023; 10:220766. [PMID: 36756071 PMCID: PMC9890088 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
For the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, New Zealand used an elimination strategy to suppress community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to zero or very low levels. In late 2021, high vaccine coverage enabled the country to transition away from the elimination strategy to a mitigation strategy. However, given negligible levels of immunity from prior infection, this required careful planning and an effective public health response to avoid uncontrolled outbreaks and unmanageable health impacts. Here, we develop an age-structured model for the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 including the effects of vaccination, case isolation, contact tracing, border controls and population-wide control measures. We use this model to investigate how epidemic trajectories may respond to different control strategies, and to explore trade-offs between restrictions in the community and restrictions at the border. We find that a low case tolerance strategy, with a quick change to stricter public health measures in response to increasing cases, reduced the health burden by a factor of three relative to a high tolerance strategy, but almost tripled the time spent in national lockdowns. Increasing the number of border arrivals was found to have a negligible effect on health burden once high vaccination rates were achieved and community transmission was widespread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgia Vattiato
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
- Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Audrey Lustig
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
- Manaaki Whenua, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Oliver Maclaren
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Rachelle N. Binny
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
- Manaaki Whenua, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Shaun C. Hendy
- Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Emily Harvey
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
- M.E. Research, Takapuna, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Dion O'Neale
- Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Michael J. Plank
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, Auckland, New Zealand
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