Environmental, pharmacological and genetic influences on the spread of drug-resistant malaria

The influence of biological, epidemiological, and treatment factors on the establishment and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum

The effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat Plasmodium falciparum malaria is threatened by resistance. The complex interplay between sources of selective pressure-treatment properties, biological factors, transmission intensity, and access to treatment-obscures understanding how, when, and why resistance establishes and spreads across different locations. We developed a disease modelling approach with emulator-based global sensitivity analysis to systematically quantify which of these factors drive establishment and spread of drug resistance. Drug resistance was more likely to evolve in low transmission settings due to the lower levels of (i) immunity and (ii) within-host competition between genotypes. Spread of parasites resistant to artemisinin partner drugs depended on the period of low drug concentration (known as the selection window). Spread of partial artemisinin resistance was slowed with prolonged parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives and accelerated when the parasite was also resistant to the partner drug. Thus, to slow the spread of partial artemisinin resistance, molecular surveillance should be supported to detect resistance to partner drugs and to change ACTs accordingly. Furthermore, implementing more sustainable artemisinin-based therapies will require extending parasite exposure to artemisinin derivatives, and mitigating the selection windows of partner drugs, which could be achieved by including an additional long-acting drug.

Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty (“immune selection”) suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage.

In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Drug resistance in the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, presents an ongoing public health challenge, but aspects of its evolution are poorly understood. Although antimalarial resistance is common worldwide, it can typically be traced to just a handful of evolutionary origins. Counterintuitively, although Sub Saharan Africa bears 90% of the global malaria burden, resistance typically originates in regions where transmission intensity is low. In high transmission regions, infections are genetically diverse, and hosts have significant standing adaptive immunity, both of which are known to suppress the frequency of resistance within infections. However, interactions between immune-driven selection, transmission intensity, and resistance have not been investigated. Using a multiscale, agent-based model, we found that high transmission intensity slowed the evolution of resistance via its effect on host population immunity. High host immunity strengthened selection for antigenic novelty, interfering with selection for resistance and allowing sensitive lineages to suppress resistant lineages in untreated hosts. However, once resistance was common in the circulating parasite population, immune selection maintained it in the population at a high prevalence. Our findings provide a novel explanation for observations about the origin of resistance and suggest that adaptive immunity is a critical component of selection.

Intra-host dynamics of co-infecting parasite genotypes in asymptomatic malaria patients

Malaria-infected individuals often harbor mixtures of genetically distinct parasite genotypes. We studied intra-host dynamics of parasite genotypes co-infecting asymptomatic adults in an area of intense malaria transmission in Chikhwawa, Malawi. Serial blood samples (5 ml) were collected over seven consecutive days from 25 adults with asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria and analyzed to determine whether a single peripheral blood sample accurately captures within-host parasite diversity. Blood samples from three of the participants were also analyzed by limiting dilution cloning and SNP genotyping of the parasite clones isolated to examine both the number and relatedness of co-infecting parasite haplotypes. We observed rapid turnover of co-infecting parasite genotypes in 88% of the individuals sampled (n = 22) such that the genetic composition of parasites infecting these individuals changed dramatically over the course of seven days of follow up. Nineteen of the 25 individuals sampled (76%) carried multiple parasite genotypes at baseline. Analysis of serial blood samples from three of the individuals revealed that they harbored 6, 12 and 17 distinct parasite haplotypes respectively. Approximately 70% of parasite haplotypes recovered from the three extensively sampled individuals were unrelated (proportion of shared alleles <83.3%) and were deemed to have primarily arisen from superinfection (inoculation of unrelated parasite haplotypes through multiple mosquito bites). The rest were related at the half-sib level or greater and were deemed to have been inoculated into individual human hosts via parasite co-transmission from single mosquito bites. These findings add further to the growing weight of evidence indicating that a single blood sample poorly captures within-host parasite diversity and underscore the importance of repeated blood sampling to accurately capture within-host parasite ecology. Our data also demonstrate a more pronounced role for parasite co-transmission in generating within-host parasite diversity in high transmission settings than previously assumed. Taken together, these findings have important implications for understanding the evolution of drug resistance, malaria transmission, parasite virulence, allocation of gametocyte sex ratios and acquisition of malaria immunity.

Within-host competition can delay evolution of drug resistance in malaria

In the malaria parasite P. falciparum, drug resistance generally evolves first in low-transmission settings, such as Southeast Asia and South America. Resistance takes noticeably longer to appear in the high-transmission settings of sub-Saharan Africa, although it may spread rapidly thereafter. Here, we test the hypothesis that competitive suppression of drug-resistant parasites by drug-sensitive parasites may inhibit evolution of resistance in high-transmission settings, where mixed-strain infections are common. We employ a cross-scale model, which simulates within-host (infection) dynamics and between-host (transmission) dynamics of sensitive and resistant parasites for a population of humans and mosquitoes. Using this model, we examine the effects of transmission intensity, selection pressure, fitness costs of resistance, and cross-reactivity between strains on the establishment and spread of resistant parasites. We find that resistant parasites, introduced into the population at a low frequency, are more likely to go extinct in high-transmission settings, where drug-sensitive competitors and high levels of acquired immunity reduce the absolute fitness of the resistant parasites. Under strong selection from antimalarial drug use, however, resistance spreads faster in high-transmission settings than low-transmission ones. These contrasting results highlight the distinction between establishment and spread of resistance and suggest that the former but not the latter may be inhibited in high-transmission settings. Our results suggest that within-host competition is a key factor shaping the evolution of drug resistance in P. falciparum.

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum has evolved resistance to most antimalarial drugs, greatly complicating treatment and control of the disease. Curiously, although sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of the global burden of malaria, the evolution of drug resistance in Africa has been markedly delayed compared to Asia and the Americas. One reason might be that, in a population in which the prevalence of infection is high, a newly emerged drug-resistant strain faces a high risk of extinction due to competition from drug-sensitive parasites that already “occupy” most of the host population. Using a mathematical model, we confirm that drug-resistant parasites face a much greater risk of extinction in a “high-transmission” setting like sub-Saharan Africa than in a “low-transmission” setting like Southeast Asia. However, we also find that when drug-resistant parasites manage to avoid extinction, their subsequent spread may be more rapid in high-transmission settings than in low-transmission settings, especially when selection is strong. These results offer a novel explanation for global patterns of drug resistance evolution in malaria and suggest a new dimension to consider in resistance prevention and containment efforts: namely, the intrinsic favorability of low- and high-transmission settings for establishment and spread of drug resistance.

The role of antimalarial quality in the emergence and transmission of resistance

The emergence and transmission of antimalarial resistance is hampering malaria eradication efforts and is shortening the useful therapeutic life of currently available antimalarials. Drug selection pressure has been identified as a contributing factor to the emergence and transmission of resistance, especially population treatment coverage and sub-therapeutic concentrations of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in the bloodstream. Medicine quality can be defined as good quality or poor quality. Poor quality antimalarials can be falsified, substandard or degraded and are estimated to make up between 10 and 50% of the antimalarial market in developing countries, and can be a source of sub-therapeutic doses of antimalarial API(s). The availability and use of poor quality antimalarials and the non-recommended use of quality assured monotherapies have historically been linked to treatment failure and in some cases, have coincided with the emergence and transmission of resistance in regions. We propose and outline the hypotheses that the use of poor quality antimalarial treatments and non-recommended quality assured monotherapies promote the (i) emergence and/or (ii) transmission of antimalarial resistance.

The Impact of Antimalarial Use on the Emergence and Transmission of Plasmodium falciparum Resistance: A Scoping Review of Mathematical Models

The emergence and transmission of resistance to antimalarial treatments continue to hamper malaria elimination efforts. A scoping review was undertaken regarding the impact of antimalarial treatment in the human population on the emergence and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum resistance, to (i) describe the use of mathematical models used to explore this relationship; (ii) discuss model findings; and (iii) identify factors influencing the emergence and transmission of resistance. Search strategies were developed and deployed in six major databases. Thirty-seven articles met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review: nine articles modeled the emergence of resistance, 19 modeled the transmission of resistance, and nine modeled both the emergence and transmission. The proportion of antimalarial use within the population and the presence of residual drug concentrations were identified to be the main predictors of the emergence and transmission of resistance. Influencing factors pertaining to the human, parasite and mosquito populations are discussed. To ensure the prolonged therapeutic usefulness of antimalarial treatments, the effect of antimalarial drug use on the emergence and transmission of resistance must be understood, and mathematical models are a useful tool for exploring these dynamics.

Mathematical model for the spread of drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum parasite considering transmission conditions

Antimalarial drugs have been used as one of the main strategies for controlling this disease. However, the spread of drug resistance in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite has generated major challenges for the control of malaria. For this reason, it is necessary to develop an efficient policy considering the parasite behavior in relation to drug treatment and epidemiological parameters. To achieve this goal, we propose a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of parasite population considering the transmission effects between mosquitoes and humans. In order to quantify the drug treatment effect on humans and the generation of new parasite genotypes within the mosquito, the parasite population was divided into those found in humans and mosquitoes. To test the model, we simulate several parasite populations, related with pyrimethamine resistance, in high and low transmission conditions. Simulation results show the dynamics of different parasite populations depending on drug coverage and the effect of epidemiological parameters. These results show that disease elimination may not be possible by using only pyrimethamine treatment, so we include different control strategies and we observe that reducing contacts between mosquitoes and humans helped the drug coverage to reduce the prevalence of disease. Finally, this model is used to propose an optimal policy that minimizes disease prevalence; the principal result is that the most effective coverage of the drug is around middle coverage. The model can also be used to evaluate not only pyrimethamine treatments, but it can be adapted for the study of resistance to other drugs.

Plasmodium falciparum genotype and gametocyte prevalence in children with uncomplicated malaria in coastal Ghana

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes are vital to sustaining malaria transmission. Parasite densities, multiplicity of infection as well as asexual genotype are features that have been found to influence gametocyte production. Measurements of the prevalence of Plasmodium sp. gametocytes may serve as a tool to monitor the success of malaria eradication efforts.

METHODS

Whole blood was collected from 112 children aged between 6 months and 13 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria attending three health facilities in southern Ghana from June to August, 2014 before (day 0) and 4 days after completion of anti-malaria drug treatment (day 7). Malaria parasites were observed by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR); submicroscopic gametocyte carriage was measured by a Pfs25 (PF3D7_1031000) mRNA real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Parasite genotyping was performed on gDNA extracted from dried filter paper blood blots by amplification of the polymorphic regions of msp1 (PF3D7_0930300) and msp2 (PF3D7_0206800) using PCR.

RESULTS

Microscopy estimated 3.1% (3/96) of the total population to carry gametocytes on day 0, which decreased to 2.1% (2/96) on day 7. In contrast, reverse transcriptase-real time PCR (RT-PCR) analysis of a subset of 35 samples estimated submicroscopic gametocyte carriage to be as high as 77% (27/35) using primers specific for Pfs25 (CT < 35) on day 0 and by day 7 this only declined to 60% (21/35). Genotyping the msp2 gene identified higher levels of MOI than the msp1 gene.

CONCLUSIONS

Although below detection by microscopy, gametocyte prevalence at submicroscopic levels are high in this region and emphasize the need for more effective elimination approaches like the development of transmission-blocking vaccines and safer gametocytocidal drugs.

Variation in infection length and superinfection enhance selection efficiency in the human malaria parasite

The capacity for adaptation is central to the evolutionary success of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. Malaria epidemiology is characterized by the circulation of multiple, genetically diverse parasite clones, frequent superinfection, and highly variable infection lengths, a large number of which are chronic and asymptomatic. The impact of these characteristics on the evolution of the parasite is largely unknown, however, hampering our understanding of the impact of interventions and the emergence of drug resistance. In particular, standard population genetic frameworks do not accommodate variation in infection length or superinfection. Here, we develop a population genetic model of malaria including these variations, and show that these aspects of malaria infection dynamics enhance both the probability and speed of fixation for beneficial alleles in complex and non-intuitive ways. We find that populations containing a mixture of short- and long-lived infections promote selection efficiency. Interestingly, this increase in selection efficiency occurs even when only a small fraction of the infections are chronic, suggesting that selection can occur efficiently in areas of low transmission intensity, providing a hypothesis for the repeated emergence of drug resistance in the low transmission setting of Southeast Asia.

Optimum population-level use of artemisinin combination therapies: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) are used worldwide as first-line treatment against confirmed or suspected Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Despite the success of ACTs at reducing the global burden of malaria, emerging resistance to artemisinin threatens these gains. Countering onset of resistance might need deliberate tactics aimed at slowing the reduction in ACT effectiveness. We assessed optimum use of ACTs at the population level, specifically focusing on a strategy of multiple first-line therapies (MFT), and comparing it with strategies of cycling or sequential use of single first-line ACTs.

METHODS

With an individual-based microsimulation of regional malaria transmission, we looked at how to apply a therapy as widely as possible without accelerating reduction of efficacy by drug resistance. We compared simultaneous distribution of artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (ie, MFT) against strategies in which these ACTs would be cycled or used sequentially, either on a fixed schedule or when population-level efficacy reaches the WHO threshold of 10% treatment failure. The main assessment criterion was total number of treatment failures per 100 people per year. Additionally, we analysed the benefits of including a single non-ACT therapy in an MFT strategy, and did sensitivity analyses in which we varied transmission setting, treatment coverage, partner-drug half-life, fitness cost of drug resistance, and the relation between drug concentration and resistance evolution.

FINDINGS

Use of MFT was predicted to reduce the long-term number of treatment failures compared with strategies in which a single first-line ACT is recommended. This result was robust to various epidemiological, pharmacological, and evolutionary features of malaria transmission. Inclusion of a single non-ACT therapy in an MFT strategy would have substantial benefits in reduction of pressure on artemisinin resistance evolution, delaying its emergence and slowing its spread.

INTERPRETATION

Adjusting national antimalarial treatment guidelines to encourage simultaneous use of MFT is likely to extend the useful therapeutic life of available antimalarial drugs, resulting in long-term beneficial outcomes for patients.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, Li Ka Shing Foundation.

A mathematical model studying mosquito-stage transmission-blocking vaccines

A compartmental deterministic model is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of transmission-blocking vaccines of malaria, which targets at the parasite stage in the mosquito. The model is rigorously analyzed and numerical simulations are performed. The results and implications are discussed.

A population genetic model for the initial spread of partially resistant malaria parasites under anti-malarial combination therapy and weak intrahost competition

To develop public-health policies that extend the lifespan of affordable anti-malarial drugs as effective treatment options, it is necessary to understand the evolutionary processes leading to the origin and spread of mutations conferring drug resistance in malarial parasites. We built a population-genetic model for the emergence of resistance under combination drug therapy. Reproductive cycles of parasites are specified by their absolute fitness determined by clinical parameters, thus coupling the evolutionary-genetic with population-dynamic processes. Initial mutations confer only partial drug-resistance. Therefore, mutant parasites rarely survive combination therapy and within-host competition is very weak among parasites. The model focuses on the early phase of such unsuccessful recurrent mutations. This ends in the rare event of mutants enriching in an infected individual from which the successful spread of resistance over the entire population is initiated. By computer simulations, the waiting time until the establishment of resistant parasites is analysed. Resistance spreads quickly following the first appearance of a host infected predominantly by mutant parasites. This occurs either through a rare transmission of a resistant parasite to an uninfected host or through a rare failure of drugs in removing "transient" mutant alleles. The emergence of resistance is delayed with lower mutation rate, earlier treatment, higher metabolic cost of resistance, longer duration of high drug dose, and higher drug efficacy causing a stronger reduction in the sensitive and resistant parasites' fitnesses. Overall, contrary to other studies' proposition, the current model based on absolute fitness suggests that aggressive drug treatment delays the emergence of drug resistance.

Pharmacological considerations in the design of anti-malarial drug combination therapies - is matching half-lives enough?

Anti-malarial drugs are now mainly deployed as combination therapy (CT), primarily as a mechanism to prevent or slow the spread of resistance. This strategy is justified by mathematical arguments that generally assume that drug 'resistance' is a binary all-or-nothing genetic trait. Herein, a pharmacological, rather than a purely genetic, approach is used to investigate resistance and it is argued that this provides additional insight into the design principles of anti-malarial CTs. It is usually suggested that half-lives of constituent drugs in a CT be matched: it appears more important that their post-treatment anti-malarial activity profiles be matched and strategies identified that may achieve this. In particular, the considerable variation in pharmacological parameters noted in both human and parasites populations may compromise this matching and it is, therefore, essential to accurately quantify the population pharmacokinetics of the drugs in the CTs. Increasing drug dosages will likely follow a law of diminishing returns in efficacy, i.e. a certain increase in dose will not necessarily lead to the same percent increase in efficacy. This may allow individual drug dosages to be lowered without proportional decrease in efficacy, reducing any potential toxicity, and allowing the other drug(s) in the CT to compensate for this reduced dosage; this is a dangerous strategy which is discussed further. Finally, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic drug interactions and the role of resistance mechanisms are discussed. This approach generated an idealized target product profile (TPP) for anti-malarial CTs. There is a restricted pipeline of anti-malarial drugs but awareness of pharmacological design principles during the development stages could optimize CT design pre-deployment. This may help prevent changes in drug dosages and/or regimen that have previously occurred post-deployment in most current anti-malarial drugs.

Changes in malaria parasite drug resistance in an endemic population over a 25-year period with resulting genomic evidence of selection

Background. Analysis of genome-wide polymorphism in many organisms has potential to identify genes under recent selection. However, data on historical allele frequency changes are rarely available for direct confirmation.

Methods. We genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 4 Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance genes in 668 archived parasite-positive blood samples of a Gambian population between 1984 and 2008. This covered a period before antimalarial resistance was detected locally, through subsequent failure of multiple drugs until introduction of artemisinin combination therapy. We separately performed genome-wide sequence analysis of 52 clinical isolates from 2008 to prospect for loci under recent directional selection.

Results. Resistance alleles increased from very low frequencies, peaking in 2000 for chloroquine resistance-associated crt and mdr1 genes and at the end of the survey period for dhfr and dhps genes respectively associated with pyrimethamine and sulfadoxine resistance. Temporal changes fit a model incorporating likely selection coefficients over the period. Three of the drug resistance loci were in the top 4 regions under strong selection implicated by the genome-wide analysis.

Conclusions. Genome-wide polymorphism analysis of an endemic population sample robustly identifies loci with detailed documentation of recent selection, demonstrating power to prospectively detect emerging drug resistance genes.

Anti-folate combination therapies and their effect on the development of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax

Can we predict the rise and spread of resistance to multi-drug therapy in a more predictable manner? We raise this question after analyzing over 500 Plasmodium vivax isolates collected from different, geographically isolated regions of China for sequence variation in and around the dhfr and dhps genes. We find: that resistance lineages have arisen at least once in each region; that there appears to have been little movement of parasite populations between these areas; and that highly resistant parasites contain dhfr and dhps alleles that are in linkage disequilibrium. We show a direct relationship between this linkage disequilibrium and a parasite's fitness in the absence of drug pressure. Such fitness would increase the spread of drug resistant phenotypes and is thus a selectable trait. These conclusions raise questions about the appropriate use of some other drug combinations to prevent and treat infection.

Policy options for deploying anti-malarial drugs in endemic countries: a population genetics approach

Background

Anti-malarial drugs are constantly exposed to the threat of evolving drug resistance so good stewardship of existing therapy is an essential component of public health policy. However, the widespread availability of numerous different drugs through informal providers could undermine official drug deployment policies. A policy of multiple first-line therapy (MFT) is compared with the conventional policy of sequential drug deployment, i.e., where one drug is used until resistance evolves and then replaced by the next drug in the sequence.

Methods

Population genetic models of drug resistance are used to make the comparison; this methodology explicitly tracks the genetics of drug resistance (including, importantly, recombination in the sexual stage, intrahost dynamics, and direction of linkage disequilibrium).

Results

A policy of MFT outlasts sequential application providing drug usages are low to moderate, and appears not to drive widespread multi-drug resistance. Inadequate dosing is an even more potent driver of drug resistance than the MFT/sequential policy decision.

Conclusions

The provision of MFT as a deliberate policy can be encouraged provided overall treatment rates are low or moderate (less than around half of malaria infections are treated) and the ad hoc provision of MFT through the private sector may be tolerated. This must be fully supported by education to ensure people take adequate doses of each of the drugs.

Estimating the numbers of malaria infections in blood samples using high-resolution genotyping data

People living in endemic areas often habour several malaria infections at once. High-resolution genotyping can distinguish between infections by detecting the presence of different alleles at a polymorphic locus. However the number of infections may not be accurately counted since parasites from multiple infections may carry the same allele. We use simulation to determine the circumstances under which the number of observed genotypes are likely to be substantially less than the number of infections present and investigate the performance of two methods for estimating the numbers of infections from high-resolution genotyping data. The simulations suggest that the problem is not substantial in most datasets: the disparity between the mean numbers of infections and of observed genotypes was small when there was 20 or more alleles, 20 or more blood samples, a mean number of infections of 6 or less and where the frequency of the most common allele was no greater than 20%. The issue of multiple infections carrying the same allele is unlikely to be a major component of the errors in PCR-based genotyping. Simulations also showed that, with heterogeneity in allele frequencies, the observed frequencies are not a good approximation of the true allele frequencies. The first method that we proposed to estimate the numbers of infections assumes that they are a good approximation and hence did poorly in the presence of heterogeneity. In contrast, the second method by Li et al estimates both the numbers of infections and the true allele frequencies simultaneously and produced accurate estimates of the mean number of infections.

Emergence of artemisinin-resistant malaria on the western border of Thailand: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria has arisen in western Cambodia. A concerted international effort is underway to contain artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, but containment strategies are dependent on whether resistance has emerged elsewhere. We aimed to establish whether artemisinin resistance has spread or emerged on the Thailand-Myanmar (Burma) border.

METHODS

In malaria clinics located along the northwestern border of Thailand, we measured six hourly parasite counts in patients with uncomplicated hyperparasitaemic falciparum malaria (≥4% infected red blood cells) who had been given various oral artesunate-containing regimens since 2001. Parasite clearance half-lives were estimated and parasites were genotyped for 93 single nucleotide polymorphisms.

FINDINGS

3202 patients were studied between 2001 and 2010. Parasite clearance half-lives lengthened from a geometric mean of 2·6 h (95% CI 2·5-2·7) in 2001, to 3·7 h (3·6-3·8) in 2010, compared with a mean of 5·5 h (5·2-5·9) in 119 patients in western Cambodia measured between 2007 and 2010. The proportion of slow-clearing infections (half-life ≥6·2 h) increased from 0·6% in 2001, to 20% in 2010, compared with 42% in western Cambodia between 2007 and 2010. Of 1583 infections genotyped, 148 multilocus parasite genotypes were identified, each of which infected between two and 13 patients. The proportion of variation in parasite clearance attributable to parasite genetics increased from 30% between 2001 and 2004, to 66% between 2007 and 2010.

INTERPRETATION

Genetically determined artemisinin resistance in P falciparum emerged along the Thailand-Myanmar border at least 8 years ago and has since increased substantially. At this rate of increase, resistance will reach rates reported in western Cambodia in 2-6 years.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust and National Institutes of Health.

Emergence of artemisinin-resistant malaria on the western border of Thailand: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria has arisen in western Cambodia. A concerted international effort is underway to contain artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, but containment strategies are dependent on whether resistance has emerged elsewhere. We aimed to establish whether artemisinin resistance has spread or emerged on the Thailand-Myanmar (Burma) border.

METHODS

In malaria clinics located along the northwestern border of Thailand, we measured six hourly parasite counts in patients with uncomplicated hyperparasitaemic falciparum malaria (≥4% infected red blood cells) who had been given various oral artesunate-containing regimens since 2001. Parasite clearance half-lives were estimated and parasites were genotyped for 93 single nucleotide polymorphisms.

FINDINGS

3202 patients were studied between 2001 and 2010. Parasite clearance half-lives lengthened from a geometric mean of 2·6 h (95% CI 2·5-2·7) in 2001, to 3·7 h (3·6-3·8) in 2010, compared with a mean of 5·5 h (5·2-5·9) in 119 patients in western Cambodia measured between 2007 and 2010. The proportion of slow-clearing infections (half-life ≥6·2 h) increased from 0·6% in 2001, to 20% in 2010, compared with 42% in western Cambodia between 2007 and 2010. Of 1583 infections genotyped, 148 multilocus parasite genotypes were identified, each of which infected between two and 13 patients. The proportion of variation in parasite clearance attributable to parasite genetics increased from 30% between 2001 and 2004, to 66% between 2007 and 2010.

INTERPRETATION

Genetically determined artemisinin resistance in P falciparum emerged along the Thailand-Myanmar border at least 8 years ago and has since increased substantially. At this rate of increase, resistance will reach rates reported in western Cambodia in 2-6 years.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust and National Institutes of Health.

Close kinship within multiple-genotype malaria parasite infections

Malaria infections containing multiple parasite genotypes are ubiquitous in nature, and play a central role in models of recombination, intra-host dynamics, virulence, sex ratio, immunity and drug resistance evolution in Plasmodium. While these multiple infections (MIs) are often assumed to result from superinfection (bites from multiple infected mosquitoes), we know remarkably little about their composition or generation. We isolated 336 parasite clones from eight patients from Malawi (high transmission) and six from Thailand (low transmission) by dilution cloning. These were genotyped using 384 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, revealing 22 independent haplotypes in Malawi (2–6 per MI) and 15 in Thailand (2–5 per MI). Surprisingly, all six patients from Thailand and six of eight from Malawi contained related haplotypes, and haplotypes were more similar within- than between-infections. These results argue against a simple superinfection model. Instead, the observed kinship patterns may be explained by inoculation of multiple related haploid sporozoites from single mosquito bites, by immune suppression of parasite subpopulations within infections, and serial transmission of related parasites between people. That relatedness is maintained in endemic areas in the face of repeated bites from infected mosquitoes has profound implications for understanding malaria transmission, immunity and intra-host dynamics of co-infecting parasite genotypes.

Adaptive evolution and fixation of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum genotypes in pregnancy-associated malaria: 9-year results from the QuEERPAM study

Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has been widely deployed in Africa for malaria control and molecular evidence of parasite drug-resistance is prevalent. However, the temporal effects on the selection of Plasmodium falciparum are not well understood. We conducted a retrospective serial cross-sectional study between 1997 and 2006 to investigate changes in drug-resistant malaria among pregnant women delivering at a single hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. P. falciparum parasites were genotyped for parasite clone multiplicity and drug-resistance mutations, and the strength of selection upon mutant genotypes was quantified. Five mutations in the dihydrofolate reductase and dihydropteroate synthase genes began at moderate frequencies and achieved fixation by 2005; the frequency of the highly-SP-resistant "quintuple mutant" haplotype increased from 19% to 100%. The selective advantage of alleles and haplotypes were quantified with selection coefficients: Selection was positive on all mutant alleles and haplotypes associated with SP resistance, and the relative fitness of the quintuple mutant haplotype was 0.139 (95% C.I. 0.067-0.211), indicating a substantial positive selective advantage. Mutations that confer higher levels of resistance to SP did not emerge. SP-resistant haplotypes were rapidly selected for and fixed in P. falciparum populations infecting pregnant women while SP was widely deployed in Malawi. These results underscore the pressing need for new preventive measures for pregnancy-associated malaria and provide a real-world model of the selection landscape malaria parasites.

The fitness of drug-resistant malaria parasites in a rodent model: multiplicity of infection

Malaria infections normally consist of more than one clonally replicating lineage. Within-host interactions between sensitive and resistant parasites can have profound effects on the evolution of drug resistance. Here, using the Plasmodium chabaudi mouse malaria model, we ask whether the costs and benefits of resistance are affected by the number of co-infecting strains competing with a resistant clone. We found strong competitive suppression of resistant parasites in untreated infections and marked competitive release following treatment. The magnitude of competitive suppression depended on competitor identity. However, there was no overall effect of the diversity of susceptible parasites on the extent of competitive suppression or release. If these findings generalize, then transmission intensity will impact on resistance evolution because of its effect on the frequency of mixed infections, not because of its effect on the distribution of clones per host. This would greatly simplify the computational problems of adequately capturing within-host ecology in models of drug resistance evolution in malaria.

Mathematical models of malaria--a review

Mathematical models have been used to provide an explicit framework for understanding malaria transmission dynamics in human population for over 100 years. With the disease still thriving and threatening to be a major source of death and disability due to changed environmental and socio-economic conditions, it is necessary to make a critical assessment of the existing models, and study their evolution and efficacy in describing the host-parasite biology. In this article, starting from the basic Ross model, the key mathematical models and their underlying features, based on their specific contributions in the understanding of spread and transmission of malaria have been discussed. The first aim of this article is to develop, starting from the basic models, a hierarchical structure of a range of deterministic models of different levels of complexity. The second objective is to elaborate, using some of the representative mathematical models, the evolution of modelling strategies to describe malaria incidence by including the critical features of host-vector-parasite interactions. Emphasis is more on the evolution of the deterministic differential equation based epidemiological compartment models with a brief discussion on data based statistical models. In this comprehensive survey, the approach has been to summarize the modelling activity in this area so that it helps reach a wider range of researchers working on epidemiology, transmission, and other aspects of malaria. This may facilitate the mathematicians to further develop suitable models in this direction relevant to the present scenario, and help the biologists and public health personnel to adopt better understanding of the modelling strategies to control the disease.

ogaraK: a population genetics simulator for malaria

MOTIVATION

The evolution of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria against most available treatments is a major global health threat. Population genetics approaches are commonly used to model the spread of drug resistance. Due to uncommon features in malaria biology, existing forward-time population genetics simulators cannot suitably model Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

RESULTS

Here we present ogaraK, a population genetics simulator for modelling the spread of drug-resistant malaria. OgaraK is designed to make malaria simulation computationally tractable as it models infections, not individual parasites. OgaraK is also able to model the life cycle of the parasite which includes both haploid and diploid phases and sexual and asexual reproduction. We also allow for the simulation of different inbreeding levels, an important difference between high and low transmission areas and a fundamental factor influencing the outcome of strategies to control or eliminate malaria.

AVAILABILITY

OgaraK is available as free software (GPL) from the address http://popgen.eu/soft/ogaraK.