Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean

Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline

An understanding of thermal limits and variation across geographic regions is central to predicting how any population may respond to global change. Latitudinal clines, in particular, have been used to demonstrate that populations can be locally adapted to their own thermal environment and, as a result, not all populations will be equally impacted by an increase in temperature. But how robust are these signals of thermal adaptation to the other ecological challenges that animals commonly face in the wild? Seasonal changes in population density, food availability, or photoperiod are common ecological challenges that could disrupt patterns of thermal tolerance along a cline if each population differentially used these signals to anticipate future temperatures and adjust their thermal tolerances accordingly. In this study, we aimed to test the robustness of a cline in thermal tolerance to simulated signals of seasonal heterogeneity. Experimental animals were derived from clones of the Australian water flea, Daphnia carinata, sampled from nine distinct populations along a latitudinal transect in Eastern Australia. We then factorially combined summer (18 h light, 6 h dark) and winter (6 h light, 18 h dark) photoperiods with high (5 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) and low (1 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) food availabilities, before performing static heat shock assays to measure thermal tolerance. We found that the thermal tolerances of the clonal populations were sensitive to both measures of seasonal change. In general, higher food availability led to an increase in thermal tolerances, with the magnitude of the increase varying by clone. In contrast, a switch in photoperiod led to rank-order changes in thermal tolerances, with heat resistance increasing for some clones, and decreasing for others. Heat resistance, however, still declined with increasing latitude, irrespective of the manipulation of seasonal signals, with clones from northern populations always showing greater thermal resistance, most likely driven by adaptation to winter thermal conditions. While photoperiod and food availability can clearly shape thermal tolerances for specific populations, they are unlikely to overwhelm overarching signals of thermal adaptation, and thus, observed clines in heat resistance will likely have remained robust to these forms of seasonal heterogeneity.

Flexibility in thermal requirements: a comparative analysis of the wide-spread lizard genus Sceloporus

Adaptation or acclimation of thermal requirements to environmental conditions can reduce thermoregulation costs and increase fitness, especially in ectotherms, which rely heavily on environmental temperatures for thermoregulation. Insight into how thermal niches have shaped thermal requirements across evolutionary history may help predict the survival of species during climate change. The lizard genus Sceloporus has a widespread distribution and inhabits an ample variety of habitats. We evaluated the effects of geographical gradients (i.e. elevation and latitude) and local environmental temperatures on thermal requirements (i.e. preferred body temperature, active body temperature in the field, and critical thermal limits) of Sceloporus species using published and field-collected data and performing phylogenetic comparative analyses. To contrast macro- and micro-evolutional patterns, we also performed intra-specific analyses when sufficient reports existed for a species. We found that preferred body temperature increased with elevation, whereas body temperature in the field decreased with elevation and increased with local environmental temperatures. Critical thermal limits were not related to the geographic gradient or environmental temperatures. The apparent lack of relation of thermal requirements to geographic gradient may increase vulnerability to extinction due to climate change. However, local and temporal variations in thermal landscape determine thermoregulation opportunities and may not be well represented by geographic gradient and mean environmental temperatures. Results showed that Sceloporus lizards are excellent thermoregulators, have wide thermal tolerance ranges, and the preferred temperature was labile. Our results suggest that Sceloporus lizards can adjust to different thermal landscapes, highlighting opportunities for continuous survival in changing thermal environments.

The role of mitochondria in sex- and age-specific gene expression in a species without sex chromosomes

Mitochondria perform an array of functions, many of which involve interactions with gene products encoded by the nucleus. These mitochondrial functions, particularly those involving energy production, can be expected to differ between sexes and across ages. Here, we measured mitochondrial effects on sex- and age-specific gene expression in parental and reciprocal F1 hybrids between allopatric populations of Tigriopus californicus with over 20% mitochondrial DNA divergence. Because the species lacks sex chromosomes, sex-biased mitochondrial effects are not confounded by the effects of sex chromosomes. Results revealed pervasive sex differences in mitochondrial effects, including effects on energetics and aging involving nuclear interactions throughout the genome. Using single-individual RNA sequencing, sex differences were found to explain more than 80% of the variance in gene expression. Males had higher expression of mitochondrial genes and mitochondrially targeted proteins (MTPs) involved in oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), while females had elevated expression of non-OXPHOS MTPs, indicating strongly sex-dimorphic energy metabolism at the whole organism level. Comparison of reciprocal F1 hybrids allowed insights into the nature of mito-nuclear interactions, showing both mitochondrial effects on nuclear expression, and nuclear effects on mitochondrial expression. While based on a small set of crosses, sex-specific increases in mitochondrial expression with age were associated with longer life. Network analyses identified nuclear components of strong mito-nuclear interactions and found them to be sexually dimorphic. These results highlight the profound impact of mitochondria and mito-nuclear interactions on sex- and age-specific gene expression.

Niche-based approach to explore the impacts of environmental disturbances on biodiversity

Globally, species are increasingly at risk from compounding threatening processes, an increasingly prominent driver of which is environmental disturbances. To facilitate effective conservation efforts following such events, methods that evaluate potential impacts across multiple species and provide landscape-scale information are needed to guide targeted responses. Often, the geographic overlap between a disturbance and species' distribution is calculated and then used as a proxy for potential impact. However, such methods do not account for the important influence of environmental heterogeneity throughout species' ranges. To address this shortcoming, we quantified the effects of environmental disturbances on species' environmental niche space. Using the Australian 2019 and 2020 Black Summer fires as a case study, we applied a niche-centric approach to examine the potential impacts of these fires on 387 vertebrate species. We examined the utility of established and novel niche metrics to assess the potential impacts of large-scale disturbance events on species by comparing the potential effects of the fires as determined by our various niche measures to those derived from geographic-based measures of impact. We examined the quality of environmental space affected by the disturbance by quantifying the position in niche space where the disturbance occurred (center or margin), the uniqueness of the environmental space that was burned, and the degree to which the remaining, unburned portion of the niche differed from a species' original prefire niche. There was limited congruence between the proportion of geographic and niche space affected, which showed that geographic-based approaches in isolation may have underestimated the impact of the fires for 56% of modeled species. For each species, when combined, these metrics provided a greater indication of postdisturbance recovery potential than geographic-based measures alone. Accordingly, the integration of niche-based analyses into conservation assessments following large-scale disturbance events will lead to a more nuanced understanding of potential impacts and guide more informed and effective conservation actions.

Effects of ocean warming on the fatty acid and epigenetic profile of Acartia tonsa: A multigenerational approach

The effects of climate change are becoming more prevalent, and it is important to know how copepods, the most abundant class in zooplankton, will react to changing temperatures as they are the main food source for secondary consumers. They act as key transferers of nutrients from primary producers to organisms higher up the food chain. Little is known about the effects of temperature changes on copepods on the long term, i.e., over several generations. Especially the epigenetic domain seems to be understudied and the question remains whether the nutritional value of copepods will permanently change with rising water temperatures. In this research, the effects of temperature on the fatty acid and epigenetic profiles of the abundant planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa were investigated, since we expect to see a link between these two. Indeed, changing methylation patterns helped copepods to deal with higher temperatures, which is in line with the relative abundance of the most important fatty acids, e.g., DHA. However, this pattern was only observed when temperature increased slowly. A sudden increase in temperature showed the opposite effect; Acartia tonsa did not show deviant methylation patterns and the relative abundance of DHA and other important fatty acids dropped significantly after several generations. These results suggest that local fluctuations in temperature have a greater effect on Acartia tonsa than an elevation of the global mean.

Threshold shifts and developmental temperature impact trade-offs between tolerance and plasticity

Mounting evidence suggests that ectotherms are already living close to their upper physiological thermal limits. Phenotypic plasticity has been proposed to reduce the impact of climate change in the short-term providing time for adaptation, but the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis predicts organisms with higher tolerance have lower plasticity. Empirical evidence is mixed, which may be driven by methodological issues such as statistical artefacts, nonlinear reaction norms, threshold shifts or selection. Here, we examine whether threshold shifts (organisms with higher tolerance require stronger treatments to induce maximum plastic responses) influence tolerance-plasticity trade-offs in hardening capacity for desiccation tolerance and critical thermal maximum (CTMAX) across Drosophila species with varying distributions/sensitivity to desiccation/heat stress. We found evidence for threshold shifts in both traits; species with higher heat/desiccation tolerance required longer hardening treatments to induce maximum hardening responses. Species with higher heat tolerance also showed reductions in hardening capacity at higher developmental acclimation temperatures. Trade-off patterns differed depending on the hardening treatment used and the developmental temperature flies were exposed to. Based on these findings, studies that do not consider threshold shifts, or that estimate plasticity under a narrow set of environments, will have a limited ability to assess trade-off patterns and differences in plasticity across species/populations more broadly.

Ecological generalism and physiology mediate fish biogeographic ranges under ocean warming

Climate-driven species redistributions are facilitated by niche modifications that increase a species's chances of establishment in novel communities. It is well understood how range-extending species adjust individual niche traits when entering novel environments, yet whether modification of ecological niche traits collectively alters the pace of range extensions or contractions remains unknown. We quantified habitat niche, abundance, physiological performance and cellular defence/damage of range-extending coral reef fishes and coexisting local temperate fishes along a 2000 km latitudinal gradient. We also assessed their dietary and behavioural niches, and establishment potential, to understand whether ecological generalism facilitates successful range extension of coral reef fishes. The coral reef fish that increased all ecological niches, showed stronger establishment, increased physiological performance and cellular damage, but decreased cellular defence at their cold-range edge, whereas tropical species that showed unmodified ecological niches showed lower establishment. One temperate species showed decreased abundance, habitat niche width and body condition, but increased cellular defence, cellular damage and energy reserves at their warm-trailing range, while other temperate species showed contrasting responses. Therefore, ecological generalists might be more successful than ecological specialists during the initial stages of climate change, with increasing future warming strengthening this pattern by physiologically benefitting tropical generalists but disadvantaging temperate specialists.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

The role of mitochondria in sex- and age-specific gene expression in a species without sex chromosomes

Mitochondria perform an array of functions, many of which involve interactions with gene products encoded by the nucleus. These mitochondrial functions, particularly those involving energy production, can be expected to differ between sexes and across ages. Here we measured mitochondrial effects on sex- and age-specific gene expression in parental and reciprocal F1 hybrids between allopatric populations of Tigriopus californicus with over 20% mitochondrial DNA divergence. Because the species lacks sex chromosomes, sex-biased mitochondrial effects are not confounded by the effects of sex chromosomes. Using single-individual RNA sequencing, sex differences were found to explain more than 80% of the variance in gene expression. Males had higher expression of mitochondrial genes and mitochondrially targeted proteins (MTPs) involved in oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), while females had elevated expression of non-OXPHOS MTPs, indicating strongly sex-dimorphic energy metabolism at the whole organism level. Comparison of reciprocal F1 hybrids allowed insights into the nature of mito-nuclear interactions, showing both mitochondrial effects on nuclear expression, as well as nuclear effects on mitochondrial expression. Across both sexes, increases in mitochondrial expression with age were associated with longer life. Network analyses identified nuclear components of strong mito-nuclear interactions, and found them to be sexually dimorphic. These results highlight the profound impact of mitochondria and mito-nuclear interactions on sex- and age-specific gene expression.

Disproportionate role of nuclear-encoded proteins in organismal and mitochondrial thermal performance in a copepod

Determining the mechanisms by which organisms evolve thermal tolerance is crucial to predicting how populations may respond to changes in local temperature regimes. Although evidence of relationships between mitochondrial background and thermal adaptation have been found, the presence of both nuclear-encoded and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA)-encoded proteins warrants experiments aimed at parsing out the relative role of each genome in thermal adaptation. We investigated the relative role of mtDNA-encoded products in thermal tolerance between two divergent populations of Tigriopus californicus using first-generation (F1) hybrids that vary in maternally inherited mtDNA but are heterozygous for population-specific alleles across nuclear loci. We tested two measures of thermal tolerance, (1) survivorship to acute thermal stress and (2) thermal stability of mitochondrial performance in Complex I-fueled ATP synthesis, both across a range of increasing temperatures. We found that the southern population (San Diego, CA, USA) outperformed the northern population (Strawberry Hill, OR, USA) in survivorship, and that both reciprocal F1 hybrid crosses had intermediate survival. Mitochondria from the San Diego population displayed greater stability in ATP synthesis with increasing temperatures compared with those from Strawberry Hill. Interestingly, hybrids from both cross directions had synthesis profiles that were very similar to that of Strawberry Hill. Taken together, these results suggest that the relative role of the mtDNA in these phenotypes is negligible compared with that of elements encoded by nuclear DNA in this system.

Shifts in survival and reproduction after chronic warming enhance the potential of a marine copepod to persist under extreme heat events

The study of a species' thermal tolerance and vital rates responses provides useful metrics to characterize its vulnerability to ocean warming. Under prolonged thermal stress, plastic and adaptive processes can adjust the physiology of organisms. Yet it is uncertain whether the species can expand their upper thermal limits to cope with rapid and extreme changes in environmental temperature. In this study, we reared the marine copepod Paracartia grani at control (19°C) and warmer conditions (25°C) for >18 generations and assessed their survival and fecundity under short-term exposure to a range of temperatures (11-34°C). After multigenerational warming, the upper tolerance to acute exposure (24 h) increased by 1-1.3°C, although this enhancement decreased to 0.3-0.8°C after longer thermal stress (7 days). Warm-reared copepods were smaller and produced significantly fewer offspring at the optimum temperature. No shift in the thermal breadth of the reproductive response was observed. Yet the fecundity rates of the warm-reared copepods in the upper thermal range were up to 21-fold higher than the control. Our results show that chronic warming improved tolerance to stress temperatures and fecundity of P. grani, therefore, enhancing its chances to persist under extreme heat events.

Response of Fragaria vesca to projected change in temperature, water availability and concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

The high rate of climate change may soon expose plants to conditions beyond their adaptation limits. Clonal plants might be particularly affected due to limited genotypic diversity of their populations, potentially decreasing their adaptability. We therefore tested the ability of a widely distributed predominantly clonally reproducing herb (Fragaria vesca) to cope with periods of drought and flooding in climatic conditions predicted to occur at the end of the twenty-first century, i.e. on average 4 °C warmer and with twice the concentration of CO2 in the air (800 ppm) than the current state. We found that F. vesca can phenotypically adjust to future climatic conditions, although its drought resistance may be reduced. Increased temperature and CO2 levels in the air had a far greater effect on growth, phenology, reproduction, and gene expression than the temperature increase itself, and promoted resistance of F. vesca to repeated flooding periods. Higher temperature promoted clonal over sexual reproduction, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration in the air triggered change in expression of genes controlling the level of self-pollination. We conclude that F. vesca can acclimatise to predicted climate change, but the increased ratio of clonal to sexual reproduction and the alteration of genes involved in the self-(in)compatibility system may be associated with reduced genotypic diversity of its populations, which may negatively impact its ability to genetically adapt to novel climate in the long-term.

Marine heatwaves and decreased light availability interact to erode the ecophysiological performance of habitat-forming kelp species

Coastal marine ecosystems are threatened by a range of anthropogenic stressors, operating at global, local, and temporal scales. We investigated the impact of marine heatwaves (MHWs) combined with decreased light availability over two seasons on the ecophysiological responses of three kelp species (Laminaria digitata, L. hyperborea, and L. ochroleuca). These species function as important habitat-forming foundation organisms in the northeast Atlantic and have distinct but overlapping latitudinal distributions and thermal niches. Under low-light conditions, summertime MHWs induced significant declines in biomass, blade surface area, and Fv/Fm values (a measure of photosynthetic efficiency) in the cool-water kelps L. digitata and L. hyperborea, albeit to varying degrees. Under high-light conditions, all species were largely resistant to simulated MHW activity. In springtime, MHWs had minimal impacts and in some cases promoted kelp performance, while reduced light availability resulted in lower growth rates. While some species were negatively affected by summer MHWs under low-light conditions (particularly L. digitata), they were generally resilient to MHWs under high-light conditions. As such, maintaining good environmental quality and water clarity may increase resilience of populations to summertime MHWs. Our study informs predictions of how habitat-forming foundation kelp species will be affected by interacting, concurrent stressors, typical of compound events that are intensifying under anthropogenic climate change.

Changes in phenology can alter patterns of natural selection: the joint evolution of germination time and postgermination traits

The timing of a developmental transition (phenology) can influence the environment experienced by subsequent life stages. When phenology causes an organism to occupy a particular habitat as a consequence of the developmental cues used, it can act as a form of habitat tracking. Evolutionary theory predicts that habitat tracking can alter the strength, direction, and mode of natural selection on subsequently expressed traits. To test whether germination phenology altered natural selection on postgermination traits, we manipulated germination time by planting seedlings in seven germination cohorts spanning 2 yr. We measured selection on postgermination traits relating to drought, freezing, and heat tolerance using a diverse combination of Arabidopsis thaliana mutants and naturally occurring ecotypes. Germination cohorts experienced variable selection: when dry, cold, and hot environments were experienced by seedlings, selection was intensified for drought, freezing, and heat tolerance, respectively. Reciprocally, postgermination traits modified the optimal germination time; genotypes had maximum fitness after germinating in environments that matched their physiological tolerances. Our results support the theoretical predictions of feedbacks between habitat tracking and traits expressed after habitat selection. In natural populations, whether phenological shifts alter selection on subsequently expressed traits will depend on the effectiveness of habitat tracking through phenology.

Loss of mitochondrial performance at high temperatures is correlated with upper thermal tolerance among populations of an intertidal copepod

Environmental temperatures have pervasive effects on the performance and tolerance of ectothermic organisms, and thermal tolerance limits likely play key roles underlying biogeographic ranges and responses to environmental change. Mitochondria are central to metabolic processes in eukaryotic cells, and these metabolic functions are thermally sensitive; however, potential relationships between mitochondrial function, thermal tolerance limits and local thermal adaptation in general remain unresolved. Loss of ATP synthesis capacity at high temperatures has recently been suggested as a mechanistic link between mitochondrial function and upper thermal tolerance limits. Here we use a common-garden experiment with seven locally adapted populations of intertidal copepods (Tigriopus californicus), spanning approximately 21.5° latitude, to assess genetically based variation in the thermal performance curves of maximal ATP synthesis rates in isolated mitochondria. These thermal performance curves displayed substantial variation among populations with higher ATP synthesis rates at lower temperatures (20-25 °C) in northern populations than in southern populations. In contrast, mitochondria from southern populations maintained ATP synthesis rates at higher temperatures than the temperatures that caused loss of ATP synthesis capacity in mitochondria from northern populations. Additionally, there was a tight correlation between the thermal limits of ATP synthesis and previously determined variation in upper thermal tolerance limits among populations. This suggests that mitochondria may play an important role in latitudinal thermal adaptation in T. californicus, and supports the hypothesis that loss of mitochondrial performance at high temperatures is linked to whole-organism thermal tolerance limits in this ectotherm.

Latitudinal variation and plasticity in response to temperature in Geukensia demissa

As global temperatures warm, species must adapt to a changing climate or transition to a different location suitable for their survival. Understanding the extent to which species are able to do so, particularly keystone species, is imperative to ensuring the survival of key ecosystems. The ribbed mussel Geukensia demissa is an integral part of salt marshes along the Atlantic coast of North America. Spatial patterns of genomic and phenotypic divergence have been previously documented, although their link with coastal environmental variation is unknown. Here, we study how populations of G. demissa in the northern (Massachusetts) and southern (Georgia) portions of the species range respond to changes in temperature. We combine assays of variation in oxygen consumption and RNA transcriptomic data with genomic divergence analyses to identify how separate populations of G. demissa may vary in distinct thermal environments. Our results show differences in constitutive oxygen consumption between mussels from Georgia and Massachusetts, as well as shared and disparate patterns of gene expression across temperature profiles. We also find that metabolic genes seem to be a strong component of divergence between these two populations. Our analysis highlights the importance of studying integrative patterns of genomic and phenotypic variation in species that are key for particular ecosystems, and how they might respond to further changes in climate.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Divergence in rates of phenotypic plasticity among ectotherms

An individual's fitness cost associated with environmental change likely depends on the rate of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and yet our understanding of plasticity rates in an ecological and evolutionary context remains limited. We provide the first quantitative synthesis of existing plasticity rate data, focusing on acclimation of temperature tolerance in ectothermic animals, where we demonstrate applicability of a recently proposed analytical approach. The analyses reveal considerable variation in plasticity rates of this trait among species, with half-times (how long it takes for the initial deviation from the acclimated phenotype to be reduced by 50% when individuals are shifted to a new environment) ranging from 3.7 to 770.2 h. Furthermore, rates differ among higher taxa, being higher for amphibians and reptiles than for crustaceans and fishes, and with insects being intermediate. We argue that a more comprehensive understanding of phenotypic plasticity will be attained through increased focus on the rate parameter.

Experimental temperatures shape host microbiome diversity and composition

Global climate change has led to more extreme thermal events. Plants and animals harbour diverse microbial communities, which may be vital for their physiological performance and help them survive stressful climatic conditions. The extent to which microbiome communities change in response to warming or cooling may be important for predicting host performance under global change. Using a meta-analysis of 1377 microbiomes from 43 terrestrial and aquatic species, we found a decrease in the amplicon sequence variant-level microbiome phylogenetic diversity and alteration of microbiome composition under both experimental warming and cooling. Microbiome beta dispersion was not affected by temperature changes. We showed that the host habitat and experimental factors affected microbiome diversity and composition more than host biological traits. In particular, aquatic organisms-especially in marine habitats-experienced a greater depletion in microbiome diversity under cold conditions, compared to terrestrial hosts. Exposure involving a sudden long and static temperature shift was associated with microbiome diversity loss, but this reduction was attenuated by prior-experimental lab acclimation or when a ramped regime (i.e., warming) was used. Microbial differential abundance and co-occurrence network analyses revealed several potential indicator bacterial classes for hosts in heated environments and on different biome levels. Overall, our findings improve our understanding on the impact of global temperature changes on animal and plant microbiome structures across a diverse range of habitats. The next step is to link these changes to measures of host fitness, as well as microbial community functions, to determine whether microbiomes can buffer some species against a more thermally variable and extreme world.

Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 °C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

The fall of the summer truffle: Recurring hot, dry summers result in declining fruitbody production of Tuber aestivum in Central Europe

Global warming is pushing populations outside their range of physiological tolerance. According to the environmental envelope framework, the most vulnerable populations occur near the climatic edge of their species' distributions. In contrast, populations from the climatic center of the species range should be relatively buffered against climate warming. We tested this latter prediction using a combination of linear mixed effects and machine learning algorithms on an extensive, citizen-scientist generated dataset on the fruitbody productivity of the Burgundy (aka summer) truffle (Tuber aestivum Vittad.), a keystone, ectomycorrhizal tree-symbiont occurring on a wide range of temperate climates. T. aestivum's fruitbody productivity was monitored at 3-week resolution over up to 8 continuous years at 20 sites distributed in the climatic center of its European distribution in southwest Germany and Switzerland. We found that T. aestivum fruitbody production is more sensitive to summer drought than would be expected from the breadth of its species' climatic niche. The monitored populations occurring nearly 5°C colder than the edge of their species' climatic distribution. However, interannual fruitbody productivity (truffle mass year^-1 ) fell by a median loss of 22% for every 1°C increase in summer temperature over a site's 30-year mean. Among the most productive monitored populations, the temperature sensitivity was even higher, with single summer temperature anomalies of 3°C sufficient to stop fruitbody production altogether. Interannual truffle productivity was also related to the phenology of host trees, with ~22 g less truffle mass for each 1-day reduction in the length of the tree growing season. Increasing summer drought extremes are therefore likely to reduce fruiting among summer truffle populations throughout Central Europe. Our results suggest that European T. aestivum may be a mosaic of vulnerable populations, sensitive to climate-driven declines at lower thresholds than implied by its species distribution model.

Mitochondrial effects on fertility and longevity in Tigriopus californicus contradict predictions of the mother's curse hypothesis

Strict maternal inheritance of mitochondria favours the evolutionary accumulation of sex-biased fitness effects, as mitochondrial evolution occurs exclusively in female lineages. The 'mother's curse' hypothesis proposes that male-harming mutations should accumulate in mitochondrial genomes when they have neutral or beneficial effects on female fitness. Rigorous empirical tests have largely focused on Drosophila, where support for the predictions of mother's curse has been mixed. We investigated the impact of mother's curse mutations in Tigriopus californicus, a minute crustacean. Using non-recombinant backcrosses, we introgressed four divergent mitochondrial haplotypes into two nuclear backgrounds and recorded measures of fertility and longevity. We found that the phenotypic effects of mitochondrial mutations were context dependent, being influenced by the nuclear background in which they were expressed, as well as the sex of the individual and rearing temperature. Mitochondrial haplotype effects were greater for fertility than longevity, and temperature effects were greater for longevity. However, in opposition to mother's curse expectations, females had higher mitochondrial genetic variance than males for fertility and longevity, little evidence of sexual antagonism favouring females was found, and the impacts of mitonuclear mismatch harmed females but not males. Together, this indicates that selection on mitochondrial variation has not resulted in the accumulation of male mutation load in Tigriopus californicus.

Hypoxia tolerance, but not low pH tolerance, is associated with a latitudinal cline across populations of Tigriopus californicus

Intertidal organisms must tolerate daily fluctuations in environmental parameters, and repeated exposure to co-occurring conditions may result in tolerance to multiple stressors correlating. The intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus experiences diurnal variation in dissolved oxygen levels and pH as the opposing processes of photosynthesis and cellular respiration lead to coordinated highs during the day and lows at night. While environmental parameters with overlapping spatial gradients frequently result in correlated traits, less attention has been given to exploring temporally correlated stressors. We investigated whether hypoxia tolerance correlates with low pH tolerance by separately testing the hypoxia and low pH stress tolerance separately of 6 genetically differentiated populations of T. californicus. We independently checked for similarities in tolerance for each of the two stressors by latitude, sex, size, and time since collection as predictors. We found that although hypoxia tolerance correlated with latitude, low pH tolerance did not, and no predictor was significant for both stressors. We concluded that temporally coordinated exposure to low pH and low oxygen did not result in populations developing equivalent tolerance for both. Although climate change alters several environmental variables simultaneously, organisms' abilities to tolerate these changes may not be similarly coupled.

Populations of western North American monkeyflowers accrue niche breadth primarily via genotypic divergence in environmental optima

Niche breadth, the range of environments that individuals, populations, and species can tolerate, is a fundamental ecological and evolutionary property, yet few studies have examined how niche breadth is partitioned across biological scales. We use a published dataset of thermal performance for a single population from each of 10 closely related species of western North American monkeyflowers (genus Mimulus) to investigate whether populations achieve broad thermal niches through general purpose genotypes, specialized genotypes with divergent environmental optima, and/or variation among genotypes in the degree of generalization. We found the strongest relative support for the hypothesis that populations with greater genetic variation for thermal optimum had broader thermal niches, and for every unit increase in among‐family variance in thermal optimum, population‐level thermal breadth increased by 0.508°C. While the niche breadth of a single genotype represented up to 86% of population‐level niche breadth, genotype‐level niche breadth had a weaker positive effect on population‐level breadth, with every 1°C increase in genotypic thermal breadth resulting in a 0.062°C increase in population breadth. Genetic variation for thermal breadth was not predictive of population‐level thermal breadth. These findings suggest that populations of Mimulus species have achieved broad thermal niches primarily through genotypes with divergent thermal optima and to a lesser extent via general‐purpose genotypes. Future work examining additional biological hierarchies would provide a more comprehensive understanding of how niche breadth partitioning impacts the vulnerabilities of individuals, populations, and species to environmental change.

The potential for the evolution of thermally sensitive courtship behaviours in the treehopper, Enchenopa binotata

The ability of animals to adapt to warming will depend on the evolutionary potential of thermally sensitive traits. The number of studies measuring the quantitative genetics of a wide variety of thermally sensitive traits has steadily increased; however, no study has yet investigated the quantitative genetics of thermal sensitivity for courtship traits. Since courtship often precedes mating, the ability of these traits to respond to warming may impact reproduction and therefore population persistence. Here, we use classic quantitative genetics breeding design to estimate heritability of various aspects of the thermal sensitivity of courtship behaviours in the treehopper Enchenopa binotata. We generated individual-level thermal courtship activity curves for males and females and measured levels of genetic variation in the thermal sensitivity of courtship activity. We found low heritability with 95% credible intervals that did not approach zero for most traits. Levels of genetic variation were highest in traits describing thermal tolerance. We also found some evidence for genetic correlations between traits within but not across sexes. Together, our results suggest that the range of temperatures over which these treehoppers actively court can evolve, although it remains unclear whether adaptation can happen quickly enough to match the speed of warming.

Experimental evolution reveals the synergistic genomic mechanisms of adaptation to ocean warming and acidification in a marine copepod

Metazoan adaptation to global change relies on selection of standing genetic variation. Determining the extent to which this variation exists in natural populations, particularly for responses to simultaneous stressors, is essential to make accurate predictions for persistence in future conditions. Here, we identified the genetic variation enabling the copepod Acartia tonsa to adapt to experimental ocean warming, acidification, and combined ocean warming and acidification (OWA) over 25 generations of continual selection. Replicate populations showed a consistent polygenic response to each condition, targeting an array of adaptive mechanisms including cellular homeostasis, development, and stress response. We used a genome-wide covariance approach to partition the allelic changes into three categories: selection, drift and replicate-specific selection, and laboratory adaptation responses. The majority of allele frequency change in warming (57%) and OWA (63%) was driven by shared selection pressures across replicates, but this effect was weaker under acidification alone (20%). OWA and warming shared 37% of their response to selection but OWA and acidification shared just 1%, indicating that warming is the dominant driver of selection in OWA. Despite the dominance of warming, the interaction with acidification was still critical as the OWA selection response was highly synergistic with 47% of the allelic selection response unique from either individual treatment. These results disentangle how genomic targets of selection differ between single and multiple stressors and demonstrate the complexity that nonadditive multiple stressors will contribute to predictions of adaptation to complex environmental shifts caused by global change.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

Fitness homeostasis across an experimental water gradient predicts species' geographic range and climatic breadth

Species range sizes and realized niche breadths vary tremendously. Understanding the source of this variation has been a long-term aim in evolutionary ecology and is a major tool in efforts to ameliorate the impacts of changing climates on species distributions. Species ranges that span a large climatic envelope can be achieved by a collection of specialized genotypes locally adapted to a small range of conditions, by genotypes with stable fitness across variable environments, or a combination of these factors. We asked whether fitness expressed along a key niche axis, water availability, could explain a species' realized niche breadth--its geographic range and climate breadth-- in 11 species from a clade of jewelflowers whose range sizes vary by two orders of magnitude. Specifically, we explored whether the range size of a species was related to the ability of genotypes (maternal families) to maintain fitness across a range of experimental water availabilities based on 30-year historical field precipitation regimes. We operationally characterized fitness homeostasis through the coefficient of variation (CV) in fitness of a genotype (family) across the experimental water gradient. We found that species with genotypes that had high fitness homeostasis -- low variation in fitness over our treatments --had larger climatic niche breadth and geographic range in their field distributions. The result was robust to alternate measures of fitness homeostasis. Our results show that the fitness homeostasis of genotypes can be a major factor contributing to niche breadth and range size in this clade. Fitness homeostasis can buffer species from loss of genetic diversity and under changing climates, provides time for adaptation to future conditions.

Evolution in response to climate in the native and introduced ranges of a globally distributed plant

The extent to which species can adapt to spatiotemporal climatic variation in their native and introduced ranges remains unresolved. To address this, we examined how clines in cyanogenesis (hydrogen cyanide [HCN] production-an antiherbivore defense associated with decreased tolerance to freezing) have shifted in response to climatic variation in space and time over a 60-year period in both the native and introduced ranges of Trifolium repens. HCN production is a polymorphic trait controlled by variation at two Mendelian loci (Ac and Li). Using phenotypic assays, we estimated within-population frequencies of HCN production and dominant alleles at both loci (i.e., Ac and Li) from 10,575 plants sampled from 131 populations on five continents, and then compared these frequencies to those from historical data collected in the 1950s. There were no clear relationships between changes in the frequency of HCN production, Ac, or Li and changes in temperature between contemporary and historical samples. We did detect evidence of continued evolution to temperature gradients in the introduced range, whereby the slope of contemporary clines for HCN and Ac in relation to winter temperature became steeper than historical clines and more similar to native clines. These results suggest that cyanogenesis clines show no clear changes through time in response to global warming, but introduced populations continue to adapt to their contemporary environments.

Exogenous oxidative stressors elicit differing age and sex effects in Tigriopus californicus

As organisms age, cellular function declines in a time-dependent manner. Oxidative stress induced by reactive oxygen species damages cellular machinery and contributes to senescence which narrows the homeostatic window needed to maintain function and survive stress. Sex differences in longevity are apparent in many species and may be related to sex-specific homeostatic responses. Here we use the emerging aging model system Tigriopus californicus, the splashpool copepod, to estimate sex- and age-specific tolerances to two chemical oxidants, hydrogen peroxide and paraquat. Sex-specific tolerance was estimated for both oxidants simultaneously for 15 age-classes. As animals aged, hydrogen peroxide tolerance decreased but paraquat tolerance increased. Also, we observed no sex difference for hydrogen peroxide tolerance, while females were more tolerant of paraquat. Our results demonstrate that oxidative stressors can have dramatically different sex and age effects in Tigriopus californicus. These findings underscore the challenges ahead in understanding relationships among oxidative stressors, sex, and aging.

A viewpoint on ecological and evolutionary study of plant thermal performance curves in a warming world

We can understand the ecology and evolution of plant thermal niches through thermal performance curves (TPCs), which are unimodal, continuous reaction norms of performance across a temperature gradient. Though there are numerous plant TPC studies, plants remain under-represented in syntheses of TPCs. Further, few studies quantify plant TPCs from fitness-based measurements (i.e. growth, survival and reproduction at the individual level and above), limiting our ability to draw conclusions from the existing literature about plant thermal adaptation. We describe recent plant studies that use a fitness-based TPC approach to test fundamental ecological and evolutionary hypotheses, some of which have uncovered key drivers of climate change responses. Then, we outline three conceptual questions in ecology and evolutionary biology for future plant TPC studies: (i) Do populations and species harbour genetic variation for TPCs? (ii) Do plant TPCs exhibit plastic responses to abiotic and biotic factors? (iii) Do fitness-based TPCs scale up to population-level thermal niches? Moving forward, plant ecologists and evolutionary biologists can capitalize on TPCs to understand how plasticity and adaptation will influence plant responses to climate change.

Food deprivation exposes sex‐specific trade‐offs between stress tolerance and life span in the copepod Tigriopus californicus

Long life is standardly assumed to be associated with high stress tolerance. Previous work shows that the copepod Tigriopus californicus breaks this rule, with longer life span under benign conditions found in males, the sex with lower stress tolerance. Here, we extended this previous work, raising animals from the same families in food‐replete conditions until adulthood and then transferring them to food‐limited conditions until all animals perished. As in previous work, survivorship under food‐replete conditions favored males. However, under food deprivation life span strongly favored females in all crosses. Compared to benign conditions, average life span under nutritional stress was reduced by 47% in males but only 32% in females. Further, the sex‐specific mitonuclear effects previously found under benign conditions were erased under food limited conditions. Results thus demonstrate that sex‐specific life span, including mitonuclear interactions, are highly dependent on nutritional environment.

Local adaptation in a marine foundation species: Implications for resilience to future global change

Environmental change is multidimensional, with local anthropogenic stressors and global climate change interacting to differentially impact populations throughout a species' geographic range. Within species, the spatial distribution of phenotypic variation and its causes (i.e., local adaptation or plasticity) will determine species' adaptive capacity to respond to a changing environment. However, comparatively less is known about the spatial scale of adaptive differentiation among populations and how patterns of local adaptation might drive vulnerability to global change stressors. To test whether fine-scale (2-12 km) mosaics of environmental stress can cause adaptive differentiation in a marine foundation species, eelgrass (Zostera marina), we conducted a three-way reciprocal transplant experiment spanning the length of Tomales Bay, CA. Our results revealed strong home-site advantage in growth and survival for all three populations. In subsequent common garden experiments and feeding assays, we showed that countergradients in temperature, light availability, and grazing pressure from an introduced herbivore contribute to differential performance among populations consistent with local adaptation. Our findings highlight how local-scale mosaics in environmental stressors can increase phenotypic variation among neighboring populations, potentially increasing species resilience to future global change. More specifically, we identified a range-center eelgrass population that is pre-adapted to extremely warm temperatures similar to those experienced by low-latitude range-edge populations of eelgrass, demonstrating how reservoirs of heat-tolerant phenotypes may already exist throughout a species range. Future work on predicting species resilience to global change should incorporate potential buffering effects of local-scale population differentiation and promote a phenotypic management approach to species conservation.

Multigenerational Life-History Responses to pH in Distinct Populations of the Copepod Tigriopus californicus

Intertidal zones are highly dynamic and harsh habitats: organisms that persist there must face many stressors, including drastic changes in seawater pH, which can be strongly influenced by biological processes. Coastal ecosystems are heterogeneous in space and time, and populations can be exposed to distinct selective pressures and evolve different capacities for acclimation to changes in pH. Tigriopus californicus is a harpacticoid copepod found in high-shore rock pools on the west coast of North America. It is a model system for studying population dynamics in diverse environments, but little is known about its responses to changes in seawater pH. I quantified the effects of pH on the survivorship, fecundity, and development of four T. californicus populations from San Juan Island, Washington, across three generations. For all populations and generations, copepod cultures had lower survivorship and delayed development under extended exposure to higher pH treatments (pH 7.5 and pH 8.0), whereas cultures maintained in lower pH (7.0) displayed stable population growth over time. Reciprocal transplants between treatments demonstrated that these pH effects were reversible. Life histories were distinct between populations, and there were differences in the magnitudes of pH effects on development and culture growth that persisted through multiple generations. These results suggest that T. californicus might not have the generalist physiology that might be expected of an intertidal species, and it could be adapted to lower average pH conditions than those that occur in adjacent open waters.

The architecture of assisted colonisation in sea turtles: building new populations in a biodiversity crisis

Due to changing environmental conditions, many species will have to migrate or occupy new suitable areas to avoid potential extinction in the current biodiversity crisis. Long-lived animals are especially vulnerable and ex-situ conservation actions can provide solutions through assisted colonisations. However, there is little empirical evidence on the process of founding new populations for such species or the feasibility of assisted colonisations as a viable conservation measure. Here, we combined genetics with reproductive data to study the rise of two wild populations of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Cayman Islands as a possible outcome of a reintroduction program started 50 years ago. We show that both populations are highly related to the captive population but rapidly diverged due to genetic drift. Individuals from the reintroduced populations showed high levels of nest fidelity, within and across nesting seasons, indicating that philopatry may help reinforce the success of new populations. Additionally, we show that reintroduction from captive populations has not undermined the reproductive fitness of first generation individuals. Sea turtle reintroduction programs can, therefore, establish new populations but require scientific evaluation of costs and benefits and should be monitored over time to ensure viability in the long-term.

Empirical evidence on the process of founding new populations for assisted colonisations is limited. This work examined two wild populations of green turtles in the Cayman Islands following a reintroduction program started 50 years ago. They show both populations are highly related to the captive population and that philopatry may reinforce the success of new populations.

Into the wild-a field study on the evolutionary and ecological importance of thermal plasticity in ectotherms across temperate and tropical regions

Understanding how environmental factors affect the thermal tolerance of species is crucial for predicting the impact of thermal stress on species abundance and distribution. To date, species' responses to thermal stress are typically assessed on laboratory-reared individuals and using coarse, low-resolution, climate data that may not reflect microhabitat dynamics at a relevant scale. Here, we examine the daily temporal variation in heat tolerance in a range of species in their natural environments across temperate and tropical Australia. Individuals were collected in their habitats throughout the day and tested for heat tolerance immediately thereafter, while local microclimates were recorded at the collection sites. We found high levels of plasticity in heat tolerance across all the tested species. Both short- and long-term variability of temperature and humidity affected plastic adjustments of heat tolerance within and across days, but with species differences. Our results reveal that plastic changes in heat tolerance occur rapidly at a daily scale and that environmental factors on a relatively short timescale are important drivers of the observed variation in thermal tolerance. Ignoring such fine-scale physiological processes in distribution models might obscure conclusions about species' range shifts with global climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part 1)'.

Elevated Salinity Rapidly Confers Cross-Tolerance to High Temperature in a Splash-Pool Copepod

Accurate forecasting of organismal responses to climate change requires a deep mechanistic understanding of how physiology responds to present-day variation in the physical environment. However, the road to physiological enlightenment is fraught with complications: predictable environmental fluctuations of any single factor are often accompanied by substantial stochastic variation and rare extreme events, and several factors may interact to affect physiology. Lacking sufficient knowledge of temporal patterns of co-variation in multiple environmental stressors, biologists struggle to design and implement realistic and relevant laboratory experiments. In this study, we directly address these issues, using measurements of the thermal tolerance of freshly collected animals and long-term field records of environmental conditions to explore how the splash-pool copepod Tigriopus californicus adjusts its physiology as its environment changes. Salinity and daily maximum temperature-two dominant environmental stressors experienced by T. californicus-are extraordinarily variable and unpredictable more than 2-3 days in advance. However, they substantially co-vary such that when temperature is high salinity is also likely to be high. Copepods appear to take advantage of this correlation: median lethal temperature of field-collected copepods increases by 7.5°C over a roughly 120 parts-per-thousand range of ambient salinity. Complementary laboratory experiments show that exposure to a single sublethal thermal event or to an abrupt shift in salinity also elicits rapid augmentation of heat tolerance via physiological plasticity, although the effect of salinity dwarfs that of temperature. These results suggest that T. californicus's physiology keeps pace with the rapid, unpredictable fluctuations of its hypervariable physical environment by responding to the cues provided by recent sublethal stress and, more importantly, by leveraging the mechanistic cross-talk between responses to salinity and heat stress.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.

Slower environmental cycles maintain greater life-history variation within populations

Populations in nature are comprised of individual life histories, whose variation underpins ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet the forces of environmental selection that shape intrapopulation life-history variation are still not well-understood, and efforts have largely focused on random (stochastic) fluctuations of the environment. However, a ubiquitous mode of environmental fluctuation in nature is cyclical, whose periodicities can change independently of stochasticity. Here, we test theoretically based hypotheses for whether shortened ('Fast') or lengthened ('Slow') environmental cycles should generate higher intrapopulation variation of life history phenotypes. We show, through a combination of agent-based modelling and a multi-generational laboratory selection experiment using the tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus, that slower environmental cycles maintain higher levels of intrapopulation variation. Surprisingly, the effect of environmental periodicity on variation was much stronger than that of stochasticity. Thus, our results show that periodicity is an important facet of fluctuating environments for life-history variation.

Evidence for genetic isolation and local adaptation in the field cricket Gryllus campestris

Understanding how species can thrive in a range of environments is a central challenge for evolutionary ecology. There is strong evidence for local adaptation along large-scale ecological clines in insects. However, potential adaptation among neighbouring populations differing in their environment has been studied much less. We used RAD sequencing to quantify genetic divergence and clustering of ten populations of the field cricket Gryllus campestris in the Cantabrian Mountains of northern Spain, and an outgroup on the inland plain. Our populations were chosen to represent replicate high and low altitude habitats. We identified genetic clusters that include both high and low altitude populations indicating that the two habitat types do not hold ancestrally distinct lineages. Using common-garden rearing experiments to remove environmental effects, we found evidence for differences between high and low altitude populations in physiological and life-history traits. As predicted by the local adaptation hypothesis, crickets with parents from cooler (high altitude) populations recovered from periods of extreme cooling more rapidly than those with parents from warmer (low altitude) populations. Growth rates also differed between offspring from high and low altitude populations. However, contrary to our prediction that crickets from high altitudes would grow faster, the most striking difference was that at high temperatures, growth was fastest in individuals from low altitudes. Our findings reveal that populations a few tens of kilometres apart have independently evolved adaptations to their environment. This suggests that local adaptation in a range of traits may be commonplace even in mobile invertebrates at scales of a small fraction of species' distributions.

Selection Experiments in the Sea: What Can Experimental Evolution Tell Us About How Marine Life Will Respond to Climate Change?

AbstractRapid evolution may provide a buffer against extinction risk for some species threatened by climate change; however, the capacity to evolve rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environments is unknown for most taxa. The ecosystem-level consequences of climate adaptation are likely to be the largest in marine ecosystems, where short-lived phytoplankton with large effective population sizes make up the bulk of primary production. However, there are substantial challenges to predicting climate-driven evolution in marine systems, including multiple simultaneous axes of change and considerable heterogeneity in rates of change, as well as the biphasic life cycles of many marine metazoans, which expose different life stages to disparate sources of selection. A critical tool for addressing these challenges is experimental evolution, where populations of organisms are directly exposed to controlled sources of selection to test evolutionary responses. We review the use of experimental evolution to test the capacity to adapt to climate change stressors in marine species. The application of experimental evolution in this context has grown dramatically in the past decade, shedding light on the capacity for evolution, associated trade-offs, and the genetic architecture of stress-tolerance traits. Our goal is to highlight the utility of this approach for investigating potential responses to climate change and point a way forward for future studies.

Climate sensitivity across latitude: scaling physiology to communities

While we know climate change will impact individuals, populations, and communities, we lack a cross-scale synthesis for understanding global variation in climate change impacts and predicting their ecological effects. Studies of latitudinal variation in individuals' thermal responses have developed primarily in isolation from studies of natural populations' warming responses. Further, it is unclear whether latitudinal variation in temperature-dependent population responses will manifest into latitudinal patterns in community stability. Integrating across scales, we discuss the key drivers of latitudinal variation in climate change effects, with the goal of identifying key pieces of information necessary to predict warming effects in natural communities. We propose two experimental approaches synthesizing latitudinal variability in climate change impacts across scales of biological organization.

Plastic responses to hot temperatures homogenize riparian leaf litter, speed decomposition, and reduce detritivores

Efforts to maintain the function of critical ecosystems under climate change often begin with foundation species. In the southwestern United States, cottonwood trees support diverse communities in riparian ecosystems that are threatened by rising temperatures. Genetic variation within cottonwoods shapes communities and ecosystems, but these effects may be modified by phenotypic plasticity, where genotype traits change in response to environmental conditions. Here, we investigated plasticity in Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) leaf litter traits as well as the consequences of plasticity for riparian ecosystems. We used three common gardens each planted with genotypes from six genetically divergent populations spanning a 12°C temperature gradient, and a decomposition experiment in a common stream environment. We found that leaf litter area, specific leaf area, and carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) were determined by interactions between genetics and growing environment, as was the subsequent rate of litter decomposition. Most of the genetic variation in leaf litter traits appeared among rather than within source populations with distinct climate histories. Source populations from hotter climates generally produced litter that decomposed more quickly, but plasticity varied the magnitude of this effect. We also found that hotter growing conditions reduced the variation in litter traits produced across genotypes, homogenizing the litter inputs to riparian ecosystems. All genotypes in the hottest garden produced comparatively small leaves that decomposed quickly and supported lower abundances of aquatic invertebrates, whereas the same genotypes in the coldest garden produced litter with distinct morphologies and decomposition rates. Our results suggest that plastic responses to climate stress may constrict the expression of genetic variation in predictable ways that impact communities and ecosystems. Understanding these interactions between genetic and environmental variation is critical to our ability to plan for the role of foundation species when managing and restoring riparian ecosystems in a warming world.

Adaptation to simultaneous warming and acidification carries a thermal tolerance cost in a marine copepod

The ocean is undergoing warming and acidification. Thermal tolerance is affected both by evolutionary adaptation and developmental plasticity. Yet, thermal tolerance in animals adapted to simultaneous warming and acidification is unknown. We experimentally evolved the ubiquitous copepod Acartia tonsa to future combined ocean warming and acidification conditions (OWA approx. 22°C, 2000 µatm CO2) and then compared its thermal tolerance relative to ambient conditions (AM approx. 18°C, 400 µatm CO2). The OWA and AM treatments were reciprocally transplanted after 65 generations to assess effects of developmental conditions on thermal tolerance and potential costs of adaptation. Treatments transplanted from OWA to AM conditions were assessed at the F1 and F9 generations following transplant. Adaptation to warming and acidification, paradoxically, reduces both thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity. These costs of adaptation to combined warming and acidification may limit future population resilience.

Diminished warming tolerance and plasticity in low-latitude populations of a marine gastropod

Models of species response to climate change often assume that physiological traits are invariant across populations. Neglecting potential intraspecific variation may overlook the possibility that some populations are more resilient or susceptible than others, creating inaccurate predictions of climate impacts. In addition, phenotypic plasticity can contribute to trait variation and may mediate sensitivity to climate. Quantifying such forms of intraspecific variation can improve our understanding of how climate can affect ecologically important species, such as invasive predators. Here, we quantified thermal performance (tolerance, acclimation capacity, developmental traits) across seven populations of the predatory marine snail (Urosalpinx cinerea) from native Atlantic and non-native Pacific coast populations in the USA. Using common garden experiments, we assessed the effects of source population and developmental acclimation on thermal tolerance and developmental traits of F1 snails. We then estimated climate sensitivity by calculating warming tolerance (thermal tolerance - habitat temperature), using field environmental data. We report that low-latitude populations had greater thermal tolerance than their high latitude counterparts. However, these same low-latitude populations exhibited decreased thermal tolerance when exposed to environmentally realistic higher acclimation temperatures. Low-latitude native populations had the greatest climate sensitivity (habitat temperatures near thermal limits). In contrast, invasive Pacific snails had the lowest climate sensitivity, suggesting that these populations are likely to persist and drive negative impacts on native biodiversity. Developmental rate significantly increased in embryos sourced from populations with greater habitat temperature but had variable effects on clutch size and hatching success. Thus, warming can produce widely divergent responses within the same species, resulting in enhanced impacts in the non-native range and extirpation in the native range. Broadly, our results highlight how intraspecific variation can alter management decisions, as this may clarify whether management efforts should be focused on many or only a few populations.

An Experimental Test of Adaptive Introgression in Locally Adapted Populations of Splash Pool Copepods

As species struggle to keep pace with the rapidly warming climate, adaptive introgression of beneficial alleles from closely related species or populations provides a possible avenue for rapid adaptation. We investigate the potential for adaptive introgression in the copepod, Tigriopus californicus, by hybridizing two populations with divergent heat tolerance limits. We subjected hybrids to strong heat selection for 15 generations followed by whole-genome resequencing. Utilizing a hybridize evolve and resequence (HER) technique, we can identify loci responding to heat selection via a change in allele frequency. We successfully increased the heat tolerance (measured as LT50) in selected lines, which was coupled with higher frequencies of alleles from the southern (heat tolerant) population. These repeatable changes in allele frequencies occurred on all 12 chromosomes across all independent selected lines, providing evidence that heat tolerance is polygenic. These loci contained genes with lower protein-coding sequence divergence than the genome-wide average, indicating that these loci are highly conserved between the two populations. In addition, these loci were enriched in genes that changed expression patterns between selected and control lines in response to a nonlethal heat shock. Therefore, we hypothesize that the mechanism of heat tolerance divergence is explained by differential gene expression of highly conserved genes. The HER approach offers a unique solution to identifying genetic variants contributing to polygenic traits, especially variants that might be missed through other population genomic approaches.

Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming

Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessments assume that upper CTL estimates, such as CTmax, are accurate predictors of vulnerability and ignore the potential for evolution to ameliorate temperature increases. Here, we use experimental evolution to assess extinction risk and adaptation in tropical and widespread Drosophila species. We find tropical species succumb to extinction before widespread species. Male fertility thermal limits, which are much lower than CTmax, are better predictors of species' current distributions and extinction in the laboratory. We find little evidence of adaptive responses to warming in any species. These results suggest that species are living closer to their upper thermal limits than currently presumed and evolution/plasticity are unlikely to rescue populations from extinction.

Experimental evolution on heat tolerance and thermal performance curves under contrasting thermal selection in Drosophila subobscura

Ectotherms can respond to global warming via evolutionary change of their upper thermal limits (CT_max ). Thus, the estimation of CT_max and its evolutionary potential is crucial to determine their vulnerability to global warming. However, CT_max estimations depend on the thermal stress intensity, and it is not completely clear whether its evolutionary capacity can be affected. Here, we performed an artificial selection experiment to increase heat tolerance using fast- and slow-ramping selection protocols in Drosophila subobscura. We found that heat tolerance evolved in both selection protocols, exhibiting similar evolutionary change rates and realized heritabilities. Additionally, we estimated the thermal performance curves (TPC) to evaluate correlated responses to selection on heat tolerance. We detected that thermal optimum increased in fast-ramping selection lines, but with a cost at the thermal performance breadth. Conversely, we did not detect changes in the TPC for the slow-ramping selection lines, indicating that thermal stress intensity has important effects on the evolution of thermal physiology of ectotherms. These findings, together with previous studies in D. subobscura reporting interpopulation variability and significant heritabilities for heat tolerance, suggest that evolutionary change can contribute to insect persistence in thermally changing environments and adaptation to global warming conditions.

Tolerance Patterns and Transcriptomic Response to Extreme and Fluctuating Salinities across Populations of the Intertidal Copepod Tigriopus californicus

AbstractPopulations that tolerate extreme environmental conditions with frequent fluctuations can give valuable insights into physiological limits and adaptation. In some estuarine and marine ecosystems, organisms must adapt to extreme and fluctuating salinities, but not much is known about how varying salinities impact local adaptation across a wide geographic range. We used eight geographically and genetically divergent populations of the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus to test whether northern populations have greater tolerance to low salinity stresses, as they experience greater precipitation and less evaporation. We used a common-garden experiment approach and exposed all populations to acute low (1 and 3 ppt) and high (110 and 130 ppt) salinities for 24 h and to a fluctuation between baseline salinity and moderate low (7 ppt) and high (80 ppt) salinities for over 49 h. We also performed RNA sequencing at several time points during the fluctuation between baseline and salinity of 7 ppt to understand the molecular basis of divergence between two populations with differing physiological responses. We present these novel findings: (1) acute low salinity conditions caused more deaths than high salinity; (2) molecular processes that elevate proline levels increased in salinity of 7 ppt, which contrasts with other physiological studies in T. californicus that mainly associated accumulation of proline with hyperosmotic stress; and (3) tolerance to a salinity fluctuation did not follow a latitudinal trend but was instead governed by a complex interplay of factors, including population and duration of salinity stress. This highlights the importance of including a wider variety of environmental conditions in empirical studies to understand local adaptation.